No positive momentum at present
- The slowdown of emerging markets and the weaker than expected 2Q13 figures prompted us to reduce our expectations for 2013. We reduce our target price to EUR 42 (from EUR 51.7) and cut our recommendation to Hold (previously Accumulate).
- Despite some positive economic signs from Europe and the US, we do not expect a substantial share price move before we see a good set of 3Q13 results. Going forward, a rebounding Chinese economy as well as news flow on an improving order intake would be positive triggers.
- Our new estimates for 2013 reflect a weaker order intake (both Pulp & Paper and Hydro) and a higher burden on the EPS level from the Schuler consolidation (higher than previously estimated amortization).
- For 2014 and beyond, our growth rates are basically confirmed, but impacted by the lower base of our estimates for 2013.
- We have not incorporated any large substantial order intake going forward and also no potential release of provisions from the assumed EUR 50mn built in 1Q13 given the mentioned cost overruns.
