Downgrade to Accumulate, target price unchanged
– Downgrade to Accumulate: Based on unchanged
estimates and valuation parameters, we left our 12-month
target price unchanged at EUR 5.2. Relative to a current
price of EUR 4.5 for Immoeast shares our DCF valuation
indicates an upside potential of 15%. We therefore
downgrade the stock to Accumulate from Buy.
– Premium to peers: At 0.71x BV09e Immoeast is currently
traded with a premium to its closest peers. Based on
EV/EBITDA it is perfectly in line and looks even cheap
taking the finalization of development projects and some
disposals of non-core assets into account in 2009 and 2010
into account.
– Merger scheduled for 1H10: A capital increase and a
merger of Immofinanz and Immoeast are the next planned
steps in the restructuring process. A merger should be
carried out as quickly as possible in the first half of 2010.
Only afterward will a decision concerning capital measures
of Immofinanz be made.
– Delay of capital increase unfavorable: We regard the
decision of the management to delay the capital increase
clearly in favor of Immofinanz shareholders, as the dilutive
effect of a possible capital increase will be shared with
Immoeast minority shareholders.
– Main upside triggers: Nevertheless, we remain positive
concerning the stock of Immoeast as the restructuring story
is still in place. The completion of development projects and
the restart of frozen projects remain the main upside
trigger, beside an overall optimization of the portfolio and
cost cutting efforts.