Zum Vergleich das Ergebnis der gleichen Abstimmung vom Juli 2008
(ich frage mich ob die 13 > 100% noch da sind??)

------------
-50% bis --100% (max. Short) (1 votes)
0% bis -50% (3 votes)
0% (keine Aktien) (3 votes)
0% bis 50% (13 votes)
50% bis 100% (12 votes)
> 100% (13 votes)

Abstimmungsergebnis (53 Stimmen) -50% bis --100% (max. Short) (1 votes) Abstimmung 0% bis -50% (1 votes) Abstimmung 0% (keine Aktien) (6 votes) Abstimmung 0% bis 50% (17 votes) Abstimmung 50% bis 100% (18 votes) Abstimmung > 100% (10 votes) Abstimmung

  

Und hoch damit ... erst halb so viele Stimmen wie beim letzten Mal,
ist wirklich die Hälfte baden gegangen und nicht mehr da?

Ich bin noch da,
hab sogar dasselbe angekreuzt wie damals.

Ich bin der eine mit -100%

Aber der Investitionsgrad ändert sich auch kurzfristig, aber mittelfristig bin ich noch etwas bärisch. Ich denke halt, daß der Anstieg bei vielen Werten um 100% in 2-3 Monaten einfach zu viel ist. Natürlich muß man wiederum sagen, daß die Börse ein perfekter Frühindikator für die Wirtschaft ist, denn 2 Monate nach dem Anstieg kommen die guten Wirtschaftsdaten rein, die auf eine Erreichung der Talsohle hindeuten. Insofern kann man mit short ziemlich daneben liegen. Long bin ich nur in AT&S, die als einer der wenigen Zykliker keine 100% vom Tief gemacht haben. Short bin ich v.a. in CSIQ, ein Solarwert, der von 3 auf 15$ innerhalb von 1-2 Monaten geklettert ist.
Aber das kann sich ja schon im Laufe der Woche ändern.

Nun,wenn ich mir das Ergebnis so anschaue dann kanns wohl nur eine Richtung geben

ice

Habt Ihr heute die Einschätzung von Herrn Schittler gesehen?

entweder in kleinen Schritten rauf oder ab 2090 (glaube ich) runter auf 960

ich bin für die Variante 2 (hängt möglicherweise auch damit zusammen, dass ich im Moment nicht oder nur sehr wenig investiert bin )

Na gut, wenn wir bis 2089 eine Salami-Rallye haben,
soll´s mir auch recht sein,
2090 tut mir sicher nicht mehr viel weh

Jetzt haben wir wieder gleich viele Stimmen wie damals.
Das Ergebnis ist fast genau so optimistisch was steigende
Kurse betrifft.... Hmm.

Umgekehrt wäre mir lieber gewesen.

>Jetzt haben wir wieder gleich viele Stimmen wie damals.
>Das Ergebnis ist fast genau so optimistisch was steigende
>Kurse betrifft.... Hmm.

Was für mich ein Indiz ist, daß viele einfach durchtauchen wollen, also relativ wenig gemacht haben in den letzten Monaten. Von vielen ist das Portfolio in der Zusammensetzung (nicht aber im Wert) gleich geblieben.

>Was für mich ein Indiz ist, daß viele einfach durchtauchen
>wollen, also relativ wenig gemacht haben in den letzten
>Monaten. Von vielen ist das Portfolio in der Zusammensetzung
>(nicht aber im Wert) gleich geblieben.

Aber diejenigen die damals >100% waren sind vermutlich nicht die gleichen
die jetzt mit Leverage unterwegs sind.

>Aber diejenigen die damals >100% waren sind vermutlich
>nicht die gleichen
>die jetzt mit Leverage unterwegs sind.

Ich habe wenn ich mich richtig erinnere damals >100% angegeben, diesmal 0-50%. Wobei sich das auch schnell wieder ändert, heute habe ich z.B. die 50% überschritten.

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- People with at least 500,000 pounds
($824,500) to invest are still too cautious to change their
strategies even as they see markets starting to recover,
according to a survey for Barclays Plc’s private bank.

Almost 90 percent of respondents in the poll of 2,100
people worldwide said there were opportunities in the current
market, Barclays Wealth said in a statement today. At the same
time, 68 percent believe the risks of further price fluctuations
are still too high, the survey found.

“A widespread sense of caution and risk aversion
highlights the extent to which wealthy investors have been
chastened by the events of recent months and suggests that it
may be some time before confidence returns to the market,”
Barclays Wealth said in the report.

The survey was conducted for the bank by the Economic
Intelligence Unit, which interviewed 2,100 people with assets of
between 500,000 pounds and more than 30 million pounds -- so-
called high net-worth individuals. It took place between March
and May, according to the report.

Wealthy individuals are more tempted by simple investments
such as real estate, government bonds, cash and domestic
equities, the bank said in the report.

Sind wir überhaupt so viele?

Hat da eh keiner doppelt abgestimmt?

Ich war damals über 100% und bin jetzt über 100%.

Die Zusammensetzung ist fast dieselbe wie damals,
nur bei den Immos (v.a. Immoeast) bin ich zu schlechten Kursen raus,
um die Margin Calls zu befriedigen.

Und ich bin auch weniger über 100% als damals. Ich bin sicher nicht einer, der nicht dazu lernt ...

>Sind wir überhaupt so viele?
>
>Hat da eh keiner doppelt abgestimmt?

Kannst du mehrfach abstimmen? Ich nicht.

>Ich war damals über 100% und bin jetzt über 100%.

>Und ich bin auch weniger über 100% als damals. Ich bin sicher
>nicht einer, der nicht dazu lernt ...

Webfreetv und dazu noch teilweise auf Kredit - also deine Nerven
möchte ich haben (oder vielleicht doch besser nicht

Du solltest Dir mal die Outlooks der Webfreetv-Vorstände zu Gemüte führen:

Seit Jahren werden bessere Zeiten angekündigt!

Eines getraue ich mich schon prophezeien - in ein paar Jahren wird
Wall Street wieder agieren wie eh und je.

--------------------

Hedge-Fund Startups Sprout as Roc Capital Gathers $1 Billion
By Saijel Kishan and Katherine Burton

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Arvind Raghunathan, former head of
Deutsche Bank AG’s global arbitrage business, will open his new
hedge-fund firm next month with more than $1 billion, a sign
that investors are trickling back after record losses last year.
Roc Capital Management LP’s assets will include $500
million in a separate account from Deutsche Bank, according to
people familiar with the New York-based firm, who asked not to
be identified because the information is private. It’s the
largest hedge-fund startup this year, one of at least eight
expected to raise more than $250 million each, according to
brokers who provide credit and lend securities to managers.
The ventures are being set up by executives who left banks
that scaled back trading to conserve capital, or hedge funds
whose 2008 losses will limit bonuses for at least another year.
Investors see them as an opportunity to get in early with the
next George Soros or Paul Tudor Jones, who have outperformed
rivals for most of their careers.
“In the past month we have started to see family offices
and institutions request information about high-quality
launches,” said Emma Sugarman, head of U.S. capital
introductions at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “These groups tell
us they are looking for the next generation of talent.”

Fear Subsides

The expectation of money coming in is spurring traders to
open their own shops. Jayesh Punater, chief executive officer of
New York-based Gravitas Technology, which provides systems and
consulting services to financial firms, said he met with 19 new
hedge funds in the first three months of the year, and more than
that this quarter.
“The fear seems to be over,” after last year’s average
loss of about 20 percent, he said. “There’s a lot of money
sitting on the sidelines and waiting to be allocated.”
Tony Chedraoui, a former portfolio manager at Deephaven
Capital Management, is starting London-based Tyrus Capital LLP
in October with at least $500 million, according to two people
familiar with the matter.
Chedraoui managed about $1.5 billion at Deephaven,
including its $500 million European event fund, the only fund
that Deephaven didn’t sell to St. Francis, Wisconsin-based hedge
fund firm Stark & Roth Inc. in January when it closed. Money
from the European fund was returned to clients, most of whom are
likely to invest in Chedraoui’s London-based fund, the people
said.

Performance Improves

Money is beginning to flow into funds as performance
rebounds this year, with returns averaging 9.8 percent through
May, according to index published by Chicago-based Hedge Fund
Research Inc. The industry had net inflows of $1.5 billion in
May, the first gain in 10 months, Singapore-based Eurekahedge
Pte said.
Roc Capital is starting with more than 20 employees. The
group lost 1 percent last year, beating most quantitative funds,
which posted an average loss of 23 percent in 2008, according to
Hedge Fund Research. Quant funds use computer models to select
investments.
Josh Berkowitz, Marcel Kasumovich and three partners
started Woodbine Capital Advisors LP, a global macro fund that
trades stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, in January
with about $180 million after leaving Soros Fund Management LLC.
They will be running about $700 million by July, according to
people familiar with the New York-based firm.
Executives at the firms all declined to comment, as did
Michele Allison, a New York-based spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank.
While more money is coming into the industry after two
quarters of outflows, established managers are the largest
beneficiaries.
“Nearly every established fund is now open for investment,
including some that were previously hard closed for years, so
there is a tremendous competition for capital,” said Charlotte
Burkeman, New York-based global head of capital introduction at
UBS AG.

Talent Emerges

Neil Paragiri, a New York-based managing director at
Harcourt Investment Consulting AG, which invests about $4
billion of client money in hedge funds, said he’s meeting new
managers and is seeing “strong” talent emerging from the
proprietary desks of investments banks.
“It’s a good opportunity for them to start a new fund now
given the dislocation in the markets, especially for distressed
debt and equity strategies,” he said.

Track Record

A Deutsche Bank survey in March found investors were more
reluctant to invest in new hedge funds, yet more than 30 percent
were willing to consider startups run by managers with a
verifiable track record from their former employers.
To attract money, new funds are being more investor
friendly than industry veterans, said Vineet Kapur, managing
director and head of U.S. capital introductions at Morgan
Stanley in New York.
Management fees for new stock funds are tending toward 1.5
percent of assets, rather than the traditional 2 percent. The
new funds are making it easier for investors to pull their
money, and aren’t including clauses in their documents that let
them limit withdrawals or create sub-portfolios for hard-to-sell
assets.
“There’s an entrepreneurial spirit emerging out of the
ashes following the fallout in the fourth quarter,” said
Philippe Peress, a former Fortress Investment Group LLC
portfolio manager who is starting his own hedge fund, Harness
Investment Group in London.

Below is a list of some of the hedge funds that plan to
open this year.

*T
Founders Firm Start* Amount Raised

A. Raghunathan Roc Capital July $1.2 billion
Tony Chedraoui Tyrus Capital October +$500 million

Josh Berkowitz Woodbine Capital January $180 million
Marcel Kasumovich

Boaz Weinstein Saba Capital August $160 million**
Stephen Jamison Jamison Capital April +$150 million
Hari Kumar LionRock Capital June $75 million
Nick Taylor Senrigan Capital September $50 million

Philippe Peress Harness Investment July-Aug. $50 million
Jonathan Ratcliffe

Shafiq Karmali Cypress Lane August NA
Pav Sethi Gladius Investment June NA

Gentry Beach Vollero Beach June NA
Rob Vollero

Edwin Wong SSG Capital April NA

Andrew Gale Cavenagh Capital June NA
Lee Ka Shao

*Scheduled start date
**As of June 1
NA - Not available
Source: Bloomberg News

>Eines getraue ich mich schon prophezeien - in ein paar Jahren
>wird
>Wall Street wieder agieren wie eh und je.


Dauert gar nicht so lange wie dieser Artikel zeigt:


Hedge Fund Instant IPO Tests the New Complacency: Jonathan Weil

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- The near-collapse of the financial
system was supposed to have reminded the world about the hazards
of chasing short-term gains at the expense of long-term
stability. Another lesson we keep relearning is that investors’
memories are short.

Look no further than the prospectus filed May 22 by
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, which was created only four
days earlier. It has no operating history and no independent
directors. As of May 19, its assets consisted of $1,000 in cash.

Eleven of PennyMac’s 14 senior managers are veterans of
Countrywide Financial Corp., including Chief Executive Stanford
Kurland, Countrywide’s chief operating officer until September
2006. PennyMac plans to hold its initial public offering this
summer, assuming the Securities and Exchange Commission lets it.

Complacency is back in the financial markets. And sometimes
it’s hard to tell what is more unnerving -- mass smugness or
staring into the abyss. If your idea of economic recovery calls
for reinflating old bubbles so we can rise from their wreckage,
then PennyMac’s emergence is a welcome sign. The flip side is
that throwing caution to the wind may be making a comeback.

PennyMac is a hedge fund dressed up as a real estate
investment trust. It hopes to raise $750 million and buy junk-
grade home loans and mortgage-backed securities on the cheap,
through government bailout programs and agencies such as the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Located just a 10-minute drive
on Ventura Highway from Countrywide’s old headquarters in
Calabasas, California, it lists BlackRock Inc. and Highfields
Capital Investments LLC as investors, in addition to its own
officers.

Layers of Fees

So far, not so bad. Sure, there’s the unseemly image of
Countrywide retreads trying to profit from a housing bust they
helped create. The biggest risk for investors, though, may arise
from the way PennyMac plans to pay its top executives.

PennyMac’s officers all are employees of a separate
company, called PCM, or one of its affiliates. PCM -- owned by
the same investors that started PennyMac -- will manage PennyMac
and collect an annual base fee equal to 1.5 percent of the
company’s shareholder equity. It’s also entitled to a quarterly
incentive fee equal to 20 percent of some weird, nonstandard
profitability calculation.

A third company owned by the same investors will collect
money for servicing PennyMac’s loans, including percentage fees
based on the loans’ unpaid principal amounts. There would be
other fees for these other companies, too. In each case,
PennyMac said in its prospectus, the fees “were not negotiated
at arm’s length.” You can’t say they didn’t warn you.

‘Short-Term’ Emphasis

Even if PennyMac loses money, the management company still
could get its base fee. As for the incentive fees, the
prospectus said these “may lead PCM to place undue emphasis on
the maximization of short-term net income at the expense of
other criteria, such as preservation of capital, maintaining
sufficient liquidity and/or management of market risk, in order
to achieve higher incentive compensation.”

After all, who cares about preserving capital for
shareholders when you’ve got management’s pay to protect?

The emphasis on short-term incentives was a big reason
Countrywide and Merrill Lynch & Co. got in trouble. PennyMac’s
IPO will be managed in part by Merrill Lynch, now owned by Bank
of America Corp., which also now owns Countrywide and almost
half of BlackRock. (The connections seem to never end.)

Warning Investors

The prospectus says other conflicts of interest in
PennyMac’s relationship with PCM “could result in decisions
that are not in the best interests of our shareholders.” PCM,
which stands for PNMAC Capital Management LLC, and its owners
also may receive shares in PennyMac at the IPO price should it
go public.

PCM already runs two separate investment funds it started
last August, using a similar strategy. As of March 31, one fund
had invested $152.9 million and seen its holdings decline in
value by $7.1 million, according to a quarterly report filed
with the SEC. The other had invested $155.8 million and was down
about $9 million. The valuations are only estimates, because the
funds’ holdings are almost all illiquid.

PennyMac filed its prospectus about two weeks before the
SEC accused three of Countrywide’s former top executives of
securities fraud -- including former CEO Angelo Mozilo, though
not Kurland or anyone else at PennyMac. PennyMac officials
declined to comment, saying they can’t talk while the company’s
SEC registration is pending.

Wall Street’s Climate

Don’t get me wrong. I realize many investors will see
PennyMac’s fundraising as a healthy sign that the economy could
be turning a corner. Still, a lot of us prudent folks wish we
could return to an investment climate where stigmas matter, and
startups have to show profits before big Wall Street banks will
help take them public.

It’s not so much PennyMac and its prospects that should
give us pause. It’s all the other fly-by-nights that a PennyMac
IPO might inspire. If this puppy can get on a national stock
exchange, we could be off to the races again. Too much of that,
so fast, may not be such a good thing.

Es ist vermutlich das Sommerloch, aber angesichts der
Rally tut sich erstaunlich wenig im Forum. Laut
Investitionsgradumfrage Juni sollte eigentlich die Mehrheit beim
Anstieg dabei sein?

>Es ist vermutlich das Sommerloch, aber angesichts der
>Rally tut sich erstaunlich wenig im Forum.

Das Forum dümpelt momentan vor sich hin. Entweder sind tatsächlich alle gleichzeitig auf Urlaub, oder die maßgeblichen Leute wollen sich die Arbeit nicht mehr antun, was ich verstehe.

Außer den Beiträgen von Shareholder gibt es nichts das mich derzeit hinter dem Ofen hervor holen kann. Wien-Broker, Iceman, Murcielago, BBio sind schon im Winterschlaf und der Rest kopiert Beiträge von rechts nach links.

Und zum Schluss: Kannst du dir wirklich vorstellen dass die Mehrheit bei einer Rallye dabei ist, noch dazu wo sie sich so überraschend fortgesetzt hat ?

Bin auch überinvestiert.

Meine Werte harren allerdings noch der Entdeckung durch die breite Mehrheit.

Milchmännchen, wo seid Ihr?

>Wien-Broker, Iceman, Murcielago, BBio sind schon im Winterschlaf

Winterschlaf wäre anachronistisch. Ich tippe auf Sommerfrische

>>Wien-Broker, Iceman, Murcielago, BBio sind schon im
>Winterschlaf
>
>Winterschlaf wäre anachronistisch. Ich tippe auf Sommerfrische
>

Dass ich dich nicht in einem Atemzug mit Shareholder erwähnt habe ist mir jetzt einigermaßen peinlich.

>Dass ich dich nicht in einem Atemzug mit Shareholder erwähnt habe ist mir jetzt einigermaßen peinlich.


Naja, viel Sachliches habe ich in letzter Zeit auch nicht geliefert. Ein paar gemeine politische Kommentare, aber sonst nicht viel. Eigentlich bin ich auch gar nicht da, Stichwort Sommerfrische.

...wäre vielleicht anarchistisch, aber keinesfalls anachronistisch.

Anachronistisch wär´s vielleicht, im Sommer am Semmering zu atmen und ausgerüstet mit Knickerbocker und Jausenpackerl ein bisserl spazierenzugehen.

Nach dem Motto "sell in may and go away".

>Und zum Schluss: Kannst du dir wirklich vorstellen dass die
>Mehrheit bei einer Rallye dabei ist, noch dazu wo sie sich so
>überraschend fortgesetzt hat ?

Eigentlich nicht. Aber bei der Abstimmung hat die überwiegende Mehrheit eine Aktienquote > 0 angegeben.

>Eigentlich nicht. Aber bei der Abstimmung hat die überwiegende
>Mehrheit eine Aktienquote > 0 angegeben.


für eine aktienquote > 0 reichts aber eh schon aus, wenn man eine einzige aktie im depot hat. insofern wundert mich die "überwiegende mehrheit" nicht wirklich.