ein kommmentar von goldman sachs
1. As I have said ever since the credit crisis started last
July, 2007, IF there were ever a good time for the US , and the world, to face these challenges, this is
it. There may have never been a good time, but I suspect that the global economic environment of
certainly any other time of my near 27 years would not have been anywhere near as conducive.
2.
Another way of saying the same thing, is that there has been, and continues to be a large amount of
global demand- demand not GDP-being created from inside the BRICs. This is especially so with respect to
China, where last week , an acceleration in inflation adjusted reported retail sales to 15.9pct was
reported. Brazil, much less important to the world economy than China, but is another example, coming in
with a much stronger than expected 6.1pct GDP for the latest quarter, in which domestic demand rose by
more than 8pct. Chinese real retail sales of 15.9pct actually means that the Chinese shopper alone is
contributing more to global GDP than the infamous US shopper. According to our latest updated estimates,
decade to date, there has now been nearly as much global demand from the BRIC countries as from the US.
Going forward, their share of global demand will start to move towards that of all the G7 nations .
3. The US is undertaking dramatic rebalancing, and as tends to be the US manner, once it shifts, it
shifts. It has been evident to many observers for a long time that the US consumer was over stretched,
and above 70pct of GDP, at very unsustainable levels. Another way of thinking of the past year is that
this reversal is under way. As a result, and the real challenge for policy, is that many businesses, in
housing, finance, and others related to consumption, are likely to face extreme stress as this reversal
continues. It is quite conceivable that in the next decade, US consumption will decline closer to 60pct
of GDP, a bit more "normal". If this occurs, many of those businesses of the past decade or longer than
led the US consumer charge will not have bright futures.
4. In order for global GDP to cope with the
US consumer dropping from 70 to 60pct, obviously something else has to rise elsewhere in the world. At
70pct of US GDP, the consumer has been around 21pct of global GDP. If it is dropping to 60pct of the US,
all else being equal, that takes 3pct off the world. In its early instances, that something else is hard
for some to identify, but it is clearly the BRICs shopper, and it might also end up including the German
and Japanese shopper, although in a much more limited way. For world GDP, in the early part if this
adjustment, it means we can't sustain 5pct type global GDP, but something around 3.5pct, which we and the
consensus are forecasting still, is perfectly feasible. As I discussed in other pieces I wrote recently,
the US GDP picture-difference between demand and GDP- continues to be strongly supported by all of this
through the remarkable performance of it's net export performance, seen both in Q2 GDP, and for those
worrying it is not sustainable, also in the July trade data reported last week.
5. While many in the
financial services industry, who are understandably heavily focused on themselves, now believe that there
is a curtailment of credit everywhere, it is unlikely to be true that all other countries face the same
situation from credit rationing as the US. Indeed, what happens to oil and other commodity prices is
probably much more important, certainly for the big EM countries, and also for some developed countries,
not constrained by credit, such as Germany and Japan. In this regard, developments of the past few weeks
are POSITIVE. Lower oil prices are good for real disposable income in many of these places, and almost
definitely mean that inflation is going to drop sharply in coming months. Our new, revised oil price
forecasts from Jeff Currie and team, add to our confidence that in 2009, inflation is heading much lower
in many places.
6. Now to this week's turbulent days. I have lived through a number of financial
crises. I started my career just as the LaTaM banking crisis took hold in the early 1980's, I lived
through the 1987 crash, there was the S+L crisis at the turn/start of the next decade, the Asian crisis
of 97, the LTCM debacle of 98, and then the bursting of the TMT bubble in 2001. There was plenty of other
turbulence too, most notably perhaps the ERM exit for the UK and Italy. Now there was this. Many people ,
who have been around as long as me, if not longer, are saying this is the worst crisis our industry has
ever been through. I am not sure if I agree. The incredible lurch for T bills of the past few days also
occurred in 1987. in fact, it was only yesterday, that the "ted spread" actually widened finally to above
its 87 highs. The decline in major equity markets this week Monday-Wednesday was only about 60pct of
what happened on that "Black Monday" and while the profile was nothing the same- partly because we had
less intense media- there were firms that went under.Of course, credit wasn’t the same, but that links
to the issue of the consumer over extension I discussed earlier.
7. Anyhow, I digress- partly. My
purpose for mentioning 1987, is that the real takeaway by Spring 1988 is that by their fast reactions,
policymakers had managed to isolate " Wall Street " from " Main Street". US, and world economic growth
did not go into a recession, and people looked back on the actions surrounding the crash and applauded ,
policymakers, largely US ones. The same general sort of thing followed the LTCM debacle also, there was
no US or world recession that followed. Indeed, many of the stock market declines originating in the
financial industry and its woes have not resulted in major economic slowdowns, primarily because
policymakers have ensured that the follow through would not impact Main Street.
8. I think these
lessons should be remembered in the actions being undertaken by US policymakers in the past 2-3 weeks.
Supporting Fannie and Freddie, supporting AIG , and now leaning towards some noughties version of the RTC
style rescue of the S+L's are all what is needed to ensure that our trouble doesn't cause widespread
global economic malaise. In this regard, please read the important US daily from Alec Phillips last
night, as well as today's Global Daily from Binit Patel and Dominic Wilson. I think there is another
important point I would offer, which is subtle and controversial. As we have seen, the US authorities
have not decided to use Govt money to support all financial institutions, making a judgement that the
system can, and should cope with the disappearance of some. This is a risky, but brave step, and results
in two new developments. One it forces those of us that are left to be even more focused about our
business model and their viability. Two, the resulting dislocations lead to sufficient media attention to
allow policymakers to deal with the bigger issue, which is where the RTC type entity comes into the
equation.
As those from many European countries and elsewhere have experienced, we don’t normally
see an end to a banking /property crisis until the Government comes to the rescue. We are possibly at
that moment.
9. A special word on the UK. Looking at the repeated , and agile policy efforts of
both the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Board, what is amongst the other striking things, is the absence
of such major initiatives in the UK. Looking at the scarily weak mortgage lending data in the UK, it has
seemed quite clear to me for some months, that UK policymakers need to step out of the box. The US is
showing the sorts of measures which need to be implemented here, where the problems are just as
challenging.
10/ Markets. It is a brave person that confidently predicts where we will go in the
next few days, but the conditions for a significant recovery of equity markets have improved
dramatically, not least helped by the sense of "crisis" which makes it easier for policymakers to act. In
addition to the above, the move by Chinese authorities to reduce interest rates and lower reserve
requirements is a very important, and positive development.
11/I don’t do this often, but I would
like to encourage you all to make sure you have read all the pieces from various members of our economics
team going back to the rescue of the GSE's on Sunday September 7th. Jan Hatzius and the US group,
Francesco Garzarelli, Dominic Wilson and all the Global Markets team, have all worked endless hours and
with great focus to bring you our ongoing thoughts on the unfolding dramas. I hope you appreciate their
efforts.
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Fallende, Sinkende Kurse, Bär, Short, Crash, Baisse XI 
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