How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk)

The LeBron James of short-selling talks Ponzinomics

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1b00ynrgtn05r/How-Jim-Chanos-Uses-Cynicism -Chutzpah-and-a-Secret-Twitter-Account-to-Take-on-Markets-and-Elon-Musk
Beitrag dem Admin melden

Antworten mit Zitat Antworten

Many market participants are now anticipating a recession by 2020 or 2021. This narrative is reflected in the signal from the flattening yield curve and inversion in some forward measures of market expectations for the fed funds rate. It is also supported by historical experience. Indeed, the Fed has never been able to achieve a soft landing from below, that is, return unemployment back up to its natural rate without causing a recession. While we expect growth to slow in 2020, at the risk of declaring that ”this time is different”, we think the Powell Fed has a reasonable shot at making history by achieving a soft landing. This piece lays out our case.The Fed has several things going for it. A major one is the absence of a significant overhang of investment in durables and structures and related financial imbalances, which have usually triggered or amplified downturns in the past. Next are a relatively flat Phillips curve and favorable supply-side trends that could diminish inflation risks and allow the Fed to move more cautiously. Reduced US sensitivity to potential oil market shocks also helps.The most obvious risk to the soft landing scenario is that overheating causes the Fed to tighten more aggressively which tips the economy into a recession. However, there is also the risk that productivity could surprise significantly to the upside, allowing both the labor market to equilibrate smoothly and the economy to expand at a more elevated pace for some time to come.For the Fed, the issue of how this cycle may end becomes increasingly important ahead of next week's FOMC meeting when it extends its projections to 2021. Consequently, the Fed must ponder what signal to give the market about its intentions to begin eventually to return the labor market toward more sustainable levels.

Deutsche Bank
Beitrag dem Admin melden

Antworten mit Zitat Antworten

Ich fürchte, ja :-)
Beitrag dem Admin melden

Antworten mit Zitat Antworten

Hmm ... auf 82,50 zu hoffen, wär also sehr vermessen? :o
Beitrag dem Admin melden

Antworten mit Zitat Antworten

>Wann (Tag, Uhrzeit) und in welchem Ausmaß dürften wir da auf
>einen Upmove hoffen?

Heute in der Schlußauktion.

Über das Ausmaß traue ich mir keine Prognose zu, aber normalerweise ist der ATX nicht der große Bringer. MSCI oder so sind wichtiger, besonders wenn sie sich mit dem Streubesitz verschätzen (wie bei Böhler seinerzeit).
Beitrag dem Admin melden

Antworten mit Zitat Antworten