In the spring of 2020, even when the world was clearly
entering the deepest recession in a generation, we argued that the recession would be sharper but
shorter. We forecast that the global economy would embark on a V-shaped recovery and that the recession
had unleashed forces that would alter inflation’s dynamics.
The consensus was and remains on
a different page. Last year, it underestimated the rebound in growth and overestimated the
disinflationary impact of COVID-19. This year, it is underestimating both growth and the upside to
We differ with consensus on how the following five factors will shape the
First, private sector risk appetite has experienced limited scarring: As
we have argued at length, the pandemic was an exogenous shock. Policy-makers were unfettered by moral
hazard concerns and had little hesitation about underwriting household and corporate income losses to an
unprecedented degree. In particular, while unemployment cost US households US$330 billion in wage income,
they have already received US$1 trillion in aggregate in transfers, a figure that will rise as the second
round of fiscal stimulus kicks in. The excess saving of about US$1.4 trillion will provide the fuel for
pent-up demand to drive a sharp rebound in growth once economies fully reopen. We forecast GDP growth of
5.9%Y for the US in 2021, a full 2 percentage points above the consensus. With the Democrats taking
control of the Senate, hopes of further fiscal stimulus have risen (we expect an additional US$1 trillion
for COVID-19 aid in the near term and further healthcare/infrastructure spending initiatives later in
2021), along with prospects for an even stronger recovery.
Second, the loss from unemployment
overstates the economic loss: Like our growth expectations, our unemployment rate forecasts are more
bullish than the consensus. As things stand, about 78% of US job losses have come in COVID-19-sensitive
sectors, which will rebound rapidly once the economy fully reopens. Moreover, 68% of the job losses from
February-April 2020 are in low-income segments, and one should not overstate the impact on aggregate
growth, notwithstanding the need for additional policy support targeting low-income households.
Third, policy-makers are attempting to run the economy red-hot, with the aim of returning the economy
to its pre-COVID-19 unemployment rate. However, accelerated restructuring in the economy will mean that
displaced workers will need time for retraining. As this process unfolds, the labor market may tighten
even earlier than the headline unemployment rate implies. While this dynamic was also at play following
the 2008 recession, the recovery was more gradual, which crucially gave businesses and the labor market
ample time to adjust.
Fourth, policy-makers are pushing for further transfers to low-income
segments, and they are likely to continue reining in the trio of tech, trade and titans in an effort to
mitigate the impacts of a lower wage share and higher income inequality. The recession’s disproportionate
impact on lower-income households has exacerbated the pre-existing issue of inequality, increasing the
impetus for policy-makers to act. Further transfers, especially given how they are now in excess of lost
income, will impart an inflationary impulse. Disrupting the trio of tech, trade and titans, which have
played an important disinflationary role for the past 30 years, will dampen their disinflationary
Finally, the Fed is committed to its 2%Y average inflation goal: The consensus
believes that it is one thing to target a 2%Y average inflation goal and another to actually get it. But
in previous cycles, the Fed had tightened monetary policy well before inflation moved above 2%Y
sustainably. This is unlikely to be the case this time, hence any initial rises in inflation will have
more time to take hold.
Erste Group - Investoren blicken bereits in die Zukunft Erste Group rechnet für 2022 mit Erholung
Nach dem für die Märkte schwierigen Coronajahr 2020 blicken die
Investoren zu Beginn des neuen Jahres schon wieder in die Zukunft - und setzen ihre Hoffnungen für den
heimischen Markt dabei bereits auf das Jahr 2022. "2021 wird nicht unbeschadet zu Ende gehen, die
Pandemie ist noch nicht zu Ende", sagte Erste Group-Analyst Christoph Schultes am Dienstag. Für 2022
rechnet der Analyst jedoch damit, dass sich die Gewinne heimischer Unternehmen wieder deutlich erholen
Die Gewinnschätzungen für 2022 sollten in etwa auf dem Niveau von 2019
liegen, so Schultes. Auch bei den Dividendenrenditen sollte es nach den starken Einschnitten des
vergangenen Jahres 2022 wieder deutlich bergauf gehen.
Für 2021 werden dagegen noch einmal
deutliche Abstriche bei den Dividenden erwartet, so Schultes. Dazu würden unter anderem auch die strengen
Vorgaben der Regulatoren für Banken beitragen - in der Branche rechnet der Analyst im ersten Halbjahr
2021 nicht mit Ausschüttungen.
Der ATX dürfte sich im Zuge der für heuer erwarteten
Konjunkturerholung im Jahr 2021 dennoch positiv entwickeln. Für das laufende Jahr schätzt Fritz Mostböck,
Leiter des Erste Group Research, das ATX-Kursziel bei 3.250 Punkten ein, das entspricht einem
Kurspotenzial von rund plus 10 Prozent auf Jahressicht. Der heimische Leitindex sei aktuell attraktiv
bewertet und habe daher starkes Aufholpotenzial.
Zudem spielt für den ATX nicht
nur die heimische Konjunktur, sondern vor allem auch die Konjunktur in der CEE-Region eine große Rolle -
und diese dürfte sich heuer positiv entwickeln. Für die Länder der Region rechnen die Erste Group
Analysten mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von durchschnittlich 3,6 Prozent.
Top-Picks für den
ATX sind aus Sicht der Erste Group aktuell AT&S, Andritz, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) und
Immofinanz. Auch die CA Immo wäre für Schultes ein Top-Pick gewesen, das jüngste Übernahmeangebot für das
Unternehmen seitens des US-Investors Starwood ändere jedoch die Sachlage. Am vergangenen Freitag hatte
der US-Investor, der bereits knapp 30 Prozent an der CA Immo hält, ein Übernahmeangebot für die übrigen
Aktien in Höhe von 34,44 Euro je Papier gelegt.
Für Schultes ist die Offerte
nicht attraktiv, er würde Anlegern nicht raten, das Angebot unbedingt anzunehmen. Wenn, dann müsse man
über dem Markt verkaufen. Die Aktie befinde sich jedoch seit Montag bereits über dem von Starwood
gebotenen Preis. "Wenn man langfristig orientiert ist, muss man auch gar nicht verkaufen, denn die CA
Immo wird sich gut entwickeln", so Schultes.
Gefragt nach politischen Impulsen zur Belebung
des Aktienmarktes sprach sich Mostböck für eine kürzere Spekulationsfrist für Aktien aus. Im Falle einer
Wiedereinführung einer Haltefrist sei ein Jahr zu lange, er plädiere für maximal sechs Monate, besser
wären drei Monate. "Je kürzer, umso besser", so Mostböck. "Langfristig sind Aktien eine Anlage und man
sollte es nicht als Spekulation sehen", sagte Schultes.
It’s clear there was utter
incompetence on someone’s part. It will be covered up because the Pharma executives are smart enough to
know that exposing their clients to ridicule would be expensive from both a regulatory and future orders
The drug maker agreed to produce the Vaccine at zero-profit on a best-efforts
basis. It agreed terms with the UK months ago. Making vaccines isn’t simple, but its fairly well
understood second-year brewing and microbiology. To ramp up production isn’t an overnight process. It
does require some fairly substantial plant to be fitted, including very large high-spec refrigeration.
I’m told these units were delayed, and only fitted in the new UK production facilities over Christmas.
Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about the price on
Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they inked the deal and insisted on production in
Europe. At that point AZ ordered the required capital plant, including the refrigeration units – which
just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the delays.
These delays are entirely
due to EU delays in signing the contract. Yet the EU won’t accept its responsibility. What we saw over
the weekend was bully-boy swagger. VDL’s coterie were willing to trigger a trade war with the UK, trample
rough-shod all over Ireland, and deny UK citizens a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, in punishment for
being the home of Astra-Zeneca.
Europe should wake up to the monster they’ve created in
Brussels. Someone, probably not VDL herself, but a top level minion, should be shot.
> Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about > the price on
Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they > inked the deal and insisted on
production in Europe. At that point AZ > ordered the required capital plant, including the
refrigeration units > – which just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the
delays. > > These delays are entirely due to EU delays in signing the contract.
Also, wenn der Käufer länger verhandelt, bis man sich einig ist, muss sich der Verkäufer nicht an die
ausverhandelten Bedingungen halten?
Es mag schon etwas schlecht gelaufen sein, aber dieser
Argumentation kann ich nicht folgen.
• Global equity markets rebounded strongly from the prior week’s pullback. Banks were the best performer,
while Staples lagged. Eurozone and Japan were top, while the UK underperformed. Bond yields are breaking
out, and the yield curve steepening, which is supportive of our preference for Financials.
Global equity strategists argued on Monday that markets should end up fading the recent technical
distortions and certain fundamental headwinds, and continue to believe that risky assets will advance in
1H, with any weakness serving as an opportunity to add. Technically, the short squeeze appears well
advanced, and stretched sentiment/positioning seen after the sharp November bounce has largely unwound.
100% of the time post the VIX spike, such as seen last week, stocks would be higher over the next 1 and 6
months, outside recessions. Fundamentally, weak February dataflow, stronger USD and mixed earnings
reaction are likely obstacles and China credit impulse is peaking. However, our strategists believe that
the market is closer to be able to look through most of these headwinds, and refocus on the likely
activity re-acceleration in March-April timeframe.
In a quiet week by 2021 standards, the speculative excesses that have defined this bull market hit new
records with little fanfare.
Wild trades from penny stocks and “meme” cryptocurrencies to
cannabis companies surged to all-time highs. U.S. equity indexes rose anew. And skeptics on the
everything rally found more reasons to fret over market froth.
“Too much money” is not a phrase heard often on Wall Street, but for a thematic fund specialist like Ark,
it could be a headache. The business Wood founded seven years ago invests in future-focused trends like
genomics and robotics, and there are only so many stocks that fit the bill.
As the cash
continues to pour in, Ark already owns 10% or more of at least 24 companies, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg. They include Invitae Corp., Cerus Corp., and CRISPR Therapeutics AG.
. While there is a lot of talk about bubbles – it is hard to see one in the broad equity market, where a
dominant group (FANGs) practically hasn’t moved for 6 months despite massive amount of stimulus and an
expected economic recovery, Financials that have barely recovered 2020 losses, and Energy that is still
down 25% from last year despite a commodity bull market. We did identify some relatively contained market
segments that appear to be in a bubble related to EV, renewable energy and innovations stocks . If we
want to be thorough in our search for bubbles, there is another asset that is currently in a bubble – the
VIX. The VIX is now disconnected to underlying short term S&P 500 realized volatility, indicating a
bubble of fear and demand from investors looking to hedge or profit from a hypothetical market
• Global equity markets were weaker into the end of the week, due to worries over the too fast repricing
of bond yields, and a move up in real yields. Value was strong vs Momentum. Travel & Leisure, Banks,
Energy and Insurance were the best performers this week, while Tech and Staples were the worst.
Regionally, European equities outperformed, while Asia lagged.
• Our Global Equity strategists
were looking for a breakout in bond yields, and expect further repricing. They believe that equities
should be able to absorb well the current breakout. Value rotation should advance in this backdrop, as
long as yields are rising for the right reasons – growth backdrop remains supportive and tapering
concerns are pushed out.
Our Global equity strategists argued for a likely breakout in bond yields, but also believe that equities
will be able to tolerate this repricing, as Growth-Policy tradeoff remains supportive. The weaker recent
trading was partly due to accelerated yields spike and a move up in real rates, but that should not
continue at this pace. They expect further rises in bond yields, but not an imminent convergence with
breakevens, at least not while growth and inflation are about to accelerate. Big picture, the phase of
activity pickup is ahead of us, as signalled by a M1 surge, which should also coincide with the easing of
lockdowns across Europe. At the same time, excess liquidity is likely to stay ample. Out of potential
upcoming headwinds to some aspects of the reflation trade, USD direction and China credit impulse are
notable. USD could end up being resilient, in contrast to widespread consensus bearish view, and China
credit impulse has peaked, which tended to lead commodity prices by 6-9 months. Miners are tactically
stretched, and the strategists hold a preference for Financials and the consumer reopening stocks among
cyclicals. Regionally, they believe US will not be the leader this year as bond yields rise, and Tech
correlations with bond yields are turning more and more negative. They are OW Japan and Eurozone.
We see higher rates largely as a function of earlier and stronger than expected economic recovery and
supportive of our positive equity outlook. While the equity multiple may remain constrained, especially
for the Growth complex, stronger than expected earnings growth should remain the dominant force
propelling equity prices higher from the current levels. In fact, we see the latest pullback as a healthy
reset of investor sentiment and positioning. For example, as equity volatility subsides, Volatility
Targeting portfolios will mechanically re-leverage and increase their equity exposures, also causing CTAs
to buy as we retrace higher key levels (i.e. 20d and 50d moving average for QQQ). We remain of the view
that Cyclical stocks continue to lead on the upside as the business cycle strengthens, but also see some
broadening out in market participation given the significant de-risking that has occurred within high
Growth and expensive Momentum stocks.
All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble
in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic.
Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar
phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed
a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low
unemployment and declining equity market breadth.
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