Das Wissen um den richtigen Zeitpunkt ist der halbe Erfolg. (Couve de Murville)

Das Geheimnis des Börsengeschäfts liegt darin, zu erkennen, was der Durchschnittsbürger glaubt, dass der Durchschnittsbürger tut. (John Maynard Keynes)

Die besten Dinge verdanken wir dem Zufall. (Casanova)

Wer Geldwerte hält, spart sich arm ...

Quelle:https://sachwert-magazin.de/2020/12/09/mega-hausse-voraus-wer-geldwerte-haelt-spart-sich- arm/

---------------------
Pharmabranche unter der Lupe
Was kommt nach dem Impfstoff-Boom?

Quelle: https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/13333448-pharmabranche-lupe-impfstoff-boom-aca tis-experte-stefan-risse-gespraech-w-o-tv

Five Reasons Why We Are Inflation Bulls

In the spring of 2020, even when the world was clearly entering the deepest recession in a generation, we argued that the recession would be sharper but shorter. We forecast that the global economy would embark on a V-shaped recovery and that the recession had unleashed forces that would alter inflation’s dynamics.

The consensus was and remains on a different page. Last year, it underestimated the rebound in growth and overestimated the disinflationary impact of COVID-19. This year, it is underestimating both growth and the upside to inflation.

We differ with consensus on how the following five factors will shape the inflation outlook.

First, private sector risk appetite has experienced limited scarring: As we have argued at length, the pandemic was an exogenous shock. Policy-makers were unfettered by moral hazard concerns and had little hesitation about underwriting household and corporate income losses to an unprecedented degree. In particular, while unemployment cost US households US$330 billion in wage income, they have already received US$1 trillion in aggregate in transfers, a figure that will rise as the second round of fiscal stimulus kicks in. The excess saving of about US$1.4 trillion will provide the fuel for pent-up demand to drive a sharp rebound in growth once economies fully reopen. We forecast GDP growth of 5.9%Y for the US in 2021, a full 2 percentage points above the consensus. With the Democrats taking control of the Senate, hopes of further fiscal stimulus have risen (we expect an additional US$1 trillion for COVID-19 aid in the near term and further healthcare/infrastructure spending initiatives later in 2021), along with prospects for an even stronger recovery.

Second, the loss from unemployment overstates the economic loss: Like our growth expectations, our unemployment rate forecasts are more bullish than the consensus. As things stand, about 78% of US job losses have come in COVID-19-sensitive sectors, which will rebound rapidly once the economy fully reopens. Moreover, 68% of the job losses from February-April 2020 are in low-income segments, and one should not overstate the impact on aggregate growth, notwithstanding the need for additional policy support targeting low-income households.

Third, policy-makers are attempting to run the economy red-hot, with the aim of returning the economy to its pre-COVID-19 unemployment rate. However, accelerated restructuring in the economy will mean that displaced workers will need time for retraining. As this process unfolds, the labor market may tighten even earlier than the headline unemployment rate implies. While this dynamic was also at play following the 2008 recession, the recovery was more gradual, which crucially gave businesses and the labor market ample time to adjust.

Fourth, policy-makers are pushing for further transfers to low-income segments, and they are likely to continue reining in the trio of tech, trade and titans in an effort to mitigate the impacts of a lower wage share and higher income inequality. The recession’s disproportionate impact on lower-income households has exacerbated the pre-existing issue of inequality, increasing the impetus for policy-makers to act. Further transfers, especially given how they are now in excess of lost income, will impart an inflationary impulse. Disrupting the trio of tech, trade and titans, which have played an important disinflationary role for the past 30 years, will dampen their disinflationary impulse.

Finally, the Fed is committed to its 2%Y average inflation goal: The consensus believes that it is one thing to target a 2%Y average inflation goal and another to actually get it. But in previous cycles, the Fed had tightened monetary policy well before inflation moved above 2%Y sustainably. This is unlikely to be the case this time, hence any initial rises in inflation will have more time to take hold.

Morgan Stanley

Erste Group - Investoren blicken bereits in die Zukunft
Erste Group rechnet für 2022 mit Erholung der Unternehmensgewinne

Nach dem für die Märkte schwierigen Coronajahr 2020 blicken die Investoren zu Beginn des neuen Jahres schon wieder in die Zukunft - und setzen ihre Hoffnungen für den heimischen Markt dabei bereits auf das Jahr 2022. "2021 wird nicht unbeschadet zu Ende gehen, die Pandemie ist noch nicht zu Ende", sagte Erste Group-Analyst Christoph Schultes am Dienstag. Für 2022 rechnet der Analyst jedoch damit, dass sich die Gewinne heimischer Unternehmen wieder deutlich erholen werden.



Die Gewinnschätzungen für 2022 sollten in etwa auf dem Niveau von 2019 liegen, so Schultes. Auch bei den Dividendenrenditen sollte es nach den starken Einschnitten des vergangenen Jahres 2022 wieder deutlich bergauf gehen.

Für 2021 werden dagegen noch einmal deutliche Abstriche bei den Dividenden erwartet, so Schultes. Dazu würden unter anderem auch die strengen Vorgaben der Regulatoren für Banken beitragen - in der Branche rechnet der Analyst im ersten Halbjahr 2021 nicht mit Ausschüttungen.

Der ATX dürfte sich im Zuge der für heuer erwarteten Konjunkturerholung im Jahr 2021 dennoch positiv entwickeln. Für das laufende Jahr schätzt Fritz Mostböck, Leiter des Erste Group Research, das ATX-Kursziel bei 3.250 Punkten ein, das entspricht einem Kurspotenzial von rund plus 10 Prozent auf Jahressicht. Der heimische Leitindex sei aktuell attraktiv bewertet und habe daher starkes Aufholpotenzial.



Zudem spielt für den ATX nicht nur die heimische Konjunktur, sondern vor allem auch die Konjunktur in der CEE-Region eine große Rolle - und diese dürfte sich heuer positiv entwickeln. Für die Länder der Region rechnen die Erste Group Analysten mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von durchschnittlich 3,6 Prozent.

Top-Picks für den ATX sind aus Sicht der Erste Group aktuell AT&S, Andritz, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) und Immofinanz. Auch die CA Immo wäre für Schultes ein Top-Pick gewesen, das jüngste Übernahmeangebot für das Unternehmen seitens des US-Investors Starwood ändere jedoch die Sachlage. Am vergangenen Freitag hatte der US-Investor, der bereits knapp 30 Prozent an der CA Immo hält, ein Übernahmeangebot für die übrigen Aktien in Höhe von 34,44 Euro je Papier gelegt.



Für Schultes ist die Offerte nicht attraktiv, er würde Anlegern nicht raten, das Angebot unbedingt anzunehmen. Wenn, dann müsse man über dem Markt verkaufen. Die Aktie befinde sich jedoch seit Montag bereits über dem von Starwood gebotenen Preis. "Wenn man langfristig orientiert ist, muss man auch gar nicht verkaufen, denn die CA Immo wird sich gut entwickeln", so Schultes.

Gefragt nach politischen Impulsen zur Belebung des Aktienmarktes sprach sich Mostböck für eine kürzere Spekulationsfrist für Aktien aus. Im Falle einer Wiedereinführung einer Haltefrist sei ein Jahr zu lange, er plädiere für maximal sechs Monate, besser wären drei Monate. "Je kürzer, umso besser", so Mostböck. "Langfristig sind Aktien eine Anlage und man sollte es nicht als Spekulation sehen", sagte Schultes.

Die Referenz im letzten Satz:

"in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Byng


It’s clear there was utter incompetence on someone’s part. It will be covered up because the Pharma executives are smart enough to know that exposing their clients to ridicule would be expensive from both a regulatory and future orders perspective.

The drug maker agreed to produce the Vaccine at zero-profit on a best-efforts basis. It agreed terms with the UK months ago. Making vaccines isn’t simple, but its fairly well understood second-year brewing and microbiology. To ramp up production isn’t an overnight process. It does require some fairly substantial plant to be fitted, including very large high-spec refrigeration. I’m told these units were delayed, and only fitted in the new UK production facilities over Christmas.

Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about the price on Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they inked the deal and insisted on production in Europe. At that point AZ ordered the required capital plant, including the refrigeration units – which just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the delays.

These delays are entirely due to EU delays in signing the contract. Yet the EU won’t accept its responsibility. What we saw over the weekend was bully-boy swagger. VDL’s coterie were willing to trigger a trade war with the UK, trample rough-shod all over Ireland, and deny UK citizens a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, in punishment for being the home of Astra-Zeneca.

Europe should wake up to the monster they’ve created in Brussels. Someone, probably not VDL herself, but a top level minion, should be shot.

https://morningporridge.com/the-morning-porridge/f/blain%E2%80%99s-morning-porridge-%E2%8 0%93-feb-1-2021-what-ever-you-want

> Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about
> the price on Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they
> inked the deal and insisted on production in Europe. At that point AZ
> ordered the required capital plant, including the refrigeration units
> – which just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the delays.
>
> These delays are entirely due to EU delays in signing the contract.

Also, wenn der Käufer länger verhandelt, bis man sich einig ist, muss sich der Verkäufer nicht an die ausverhandelten Bedingungen halten?

Es mag schon etwas schlecht gelaufen sein, aber dieser Argumentation kann ich nicht folgen.

• Global equity markets rebounded strongly from the prior week’s pullback. Banks were the best performer, while Staples lagged. Eurozone and Japan were top, while the UK underperformed. Bond yields are breaking out, and the yield curve steepening, which is supportive of our preference for Financials.

Our Global equity strategists argued on Monday that markets should end up fading the recent technical distortions and certain fundamental headwinds, and continue to believe that risky assets will advance in 1H, with any weakness serving as an opportunity to add. Technically, the short squeeze appears well advanced, and stretched sentiment/positioning seen after the sharp November bounce has largely unwound. 100% of the time post the VIX spike, such as seen last week, stocks would be higher over the next 1 and 6 months, outside recessions. Fundamentally, weak February dataflow, stronger USD and mixed earnings reaction are likely obstacles and China credit impulse is peaking. However, our strategists believe that the market is closer to be able to look through most of these headwinds, and refocus on the likely activity re-acceleration in March-April timeframe.

JPMorgan

Fear & Greed Index

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

In a quiet week by 2021 standards, the speculative excesses that have defined this bull market hit new records with little fanfare.

Wild trades from penny stocks and “meme” cryptocurrencies to cannabis companies surged to all-time highs. U.S. equity indexes rose anew. And skeptics on the everything rally found more reasons to fret over market froth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/speculative-traders-add-billions-to-me me-stocks-at-new-records?srnd=markets-vp

“Too much money” is not a phrase heard often on Wall Street, but for a thematic fund specialist like Ark, it could be a headache. The business Wood founded seven years ago invests in future-focused trends like genomics and robotics, and there are only so many stocks that fit the bill.

As the cash continues to pour in, Ark already owns 10% or more of at least 24 companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They include Invitae Corp., Cerus Corp., and CRISPR Therapeutics AG.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/cathie-wood-risks-having-too-much-mone y-and-not-enough-stocks

Der Crash kommt und an diesen Investments kann man ihn erkennen

Quelle: https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/warnung-an-anleger-boersenguru-jeremy-grantham- warnt-der-crash-kommt-und-an-diesen-investments-kann-man-ihn-erkennen-9733441

Als Gründer der Vermögensverwaltung Fisher Investment verwaltet er selbstständig das Vermögen der Anleger. Sein Privatvermögen beträgt über vier Milliarden US-Dollar ...

Quelle: https://www.etf-nachrichten.de/star-investor-ken-fisher-so-sieht-sein-depot-aus/

Der neue IVA-Chef:

https://www.iva.or.at/kleinanlegen-ist-cool/

Aber bitte machts ihn nicht zum "Mann des Jahres" vom TREND

. While there is a lot of talk about bubbles – it is hard to see one in the broad equity market, where a dominant group (FANGs) practically hasn’t moved for 6 months despite massive amount of stimulus and an expected economic recovery, Financials that have barely recovered 2020 losses, and Energy that is still down 25% from last year despite a commodity bull market. We did identify some relatively contained market segments that appear to be in a bubble related to EV, renewable energy and innovations stocks . If we want to be thorough in our search for bubbles, there is another asset that is currently in a bubble – the VIX. The VIX is now disconnected to underlying short term S&P 500 realized volatility, indicating a bubble of fear and demand from investors looking to hedge or profit from a hypothetical market selloff.

JPM

Quelle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv7l3b7m9Dg

• Global equity markets were weaker into the end of the week, due to worries over the too fast repricing of bond yields, and a move up in real yields. Value was strong vs Momentum. Travel & Leisure, Banks, Energy and Insurance were the best performers this week, while Tech and Staples were the worst. Regionally, European equities outperformed, while Asia lagged.

• Our Global Equity strategists were looking for a breakout in bond yields, and expect further repricing. They believe that equities should be able to absorb well the current breakout. Value rotation should advance in this backdrop, as long as yields are rising for the right reasons – growth backdrop remains supportive and tapering concerns are pushed out.

JPMorgan

Our Global equity strategists argued for a likely breakout in bond yields, but also believe that equities will be able to tolerate this repricing, as Growth-Policy tradeoff remains supportive. The weaker recent trading was partly due to accelerated yields spike and a move up in real rates, but that should not continue at this pace. They expect further rises in bond yields, but not an imminent convergence with breakevens, at least not while growth and inflation are about to accelerate. Big picture, the phase of activity pickup is ahead of us, as signalled by a M1 surge, which should also coincide with the easing of lockdowns across Europe. At the same time, excess liquidity is likely to stay ample. Out of potential upcoming headwinds to some aspects of the reflation trade, USD direction and China credit impulse are notable. USD could end up being resilient, in contrast to widespread consensus bearish view, and China credit impulse has peaked, which tended to lead commodity prices by 6-9 months. Miners are tactically stretched, and the strategists hold a preference for Financials and the consumer reopening stocks among cyclicals. Regionally, they believe US will not be the leader this year as bond yields rise, and Tech correlations with bond yields are turning more and more negative. They are OW Japan and Eurozone.

JPMorgan

We see higher rates largely as a function of earlier and stronger than expected economic recovery and supportive of our positive equity outlook. While the equity multiple may remain constrained, especially for the Growth complex, stronger than expected earnings growth should remain the dominant force propelling equity prices higher from the current levels. In fact, we see the latest pullback as a healthy reset of investor sentiment and positioning. For example, as equity volatility subsides, Volatility Targeting portfolios will mechanically re-leverage and increase their equity exposures, also causing CTAs to buy as we retrace higher key levels (i.e. 20d and 50d moving average for QQQ). We remain of the view that Cyclical stocks continue to lead on the upside as the business cycle strengthens, but also see some broadening out in market participation given the significant de-risking that has occurred within high Growth and expensive Momentum stocks.

JPMorgan

All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic.

Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.

https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLD INGS.pdf

Was sollen die Mini-Positionen (in %) am unteren Ende?

Aktiv gemanagte ETFs ... mir war gar nicht so richtig bewußt, daß es das auch gibt.

"All In" für Aktien / Hans A. Bernecker im Gespräch vom 31.03.2021:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5xwvcU0YLE

JPMorgan’s Dimon Says ‘This Boom Could Easily Run Into 2023’

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-07/dimon-says-fintech-and-big-tech-are-he re-as-banks-lose-ground

Der angesprochene Letter:

https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2020/ar-ceo-letters.htm

Das große Vorbild für die kleine ÖBAG macht einen großen Bogen um Saudi-Arabien:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Norwegens-Staatsfonds-meidet-Saudi-Arabien-article22480677 .html

Ich seh grad, bei Infineon hams immerhin schon 5%.

Das sind keine Peanuts mehr, das Paket hat einen aktuellen Börsewert von 2,25 Mrd Euro.

>Ich seh grad, bei Infineon hams immerhin schon 5%.
>
>Das sind keine Peanuts mehr, das Paket hat einen aktuellen
>Börsewert von 2,25 Mrd Euro.

Auch in Österreich haben sie einiges. Von 0,14% an Semperit bis 3,20% an Wienerberger. In Summe etwa 1,1 Milliarden Euro wert.

https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/investments/#/2020/investments/equities

Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn

Die Firmen raten Händlern, sich zu entspannen.

https://www.diepresse.com/5980585/goldman-und-pimco-sehen-inflationswahn

>Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn
>
>Die Firmen raten Händlern, sich zu entspannen.
>
>https://www.diepresse.com/5980585/goldman-und-pimco-sehen-inflationswahn

Übersetzt: sie sind falsch positioniert.

>>Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn
>>
>>Die Firmen raten Händlern, sich zu entspannen.
>>
>>https://www.diepresse.com/5980585/goldman-und-pimco-sehen-inflationswahn
>
>Übersetzt: sie sind falsch positioniert.

Ohne Bill Gross ist Pimco halt Durchschnitt

10 June 2021
At today’s meeting, the Governing Council decided to confirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance:

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

The Governing Council will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects net purchases under the PEPP over the coming quarter to continue to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year.

The Governing Council will purchase flexibly according to market conditions and with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. In addition, the flexibility of purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions will continue to support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.

The Governing Council will continue to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2023. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

Net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion. The Governing Council continues to expect monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Finally, the Governing Council will continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations. The funding obtained through the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) plays a crucial role in supporting bank lending to firms and households.

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.

In November 2022’s mid-terms, if the Republicans gain control of either the House or Senate this would stymie the ability of President Biden to pass further stimulative legislation without their support.

The historical record doesn’t bode well for the Democrats on this, since every President but one since the Second World War has seen their party lose seats in the House at their first mid-term election. And all the Republicans need is just 5 more to take control.

The only time the incumbent party gained seats since the war in a president's first mid-term was in 2002, when George W. Bush had an approval rating of over 60% following the boost to his popularity after the 9/11 terrorist attacks the previous year. Otherwise, it’s been a story of consistent losses. A look at Biden’s approval rating less than 6 months in has it at 53% according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. At the exact same point in their Presidencies, Trump was at 38%, Obama 60%, George W. Bush 53%, Clinton 40%, George H. W. Bush 62% and Reagan 59%.

Banken und Versicherungen sollte es gefallen.

Stocks fell on Wednesday as investors considered a key monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve, which reflected more policymakers forecasted interest rate hikes in the next two years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-16-2021-221336682.html

Last week’s FOMC meeting was a hawkish surprise, but does not change our market outlook. The reflation trade experienced a sharp technically driven pullback, but we expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities. Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and Value outperformance. We expect a first rate hike in 2023 and continue to expect the tapering process to start next year, but don’t think this is likely to hurt our bullish view on DM equities.

JPMorgan

We maintain our pro-risk view given the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, accommodative monetary policy, and still moderate positioning in risky asset classes. We look for global GDP to surge in 2H as the laggards join in a more synchronized growth boom, as widespread vaccination allows for a sustained rise in mobility and economic activity. We view the recent reversal of the reopening/reflation trade as driven by a combination of technicals (i.e., position unwinds and systematic strategy flows in an environment of low liquidity) and overblown fears around the Delta variant’s impact on growth and mobility (see here). In our view it is far too early to fade reopening/reflation trends, as we are in the early stages of the post-pandemic recovery (the world hasn’t reopened yet) not late-cycle, and inflation is likely to continue to realize above market expectations. The pullback thus creates a strong opportunity for investors to position for the outperformance of cyclical and value assets over bonds, defensives and growth. As such, we retain large OWs in equities (tilted towards value and cyclicals) and commodities, funded by a large UW in government bonds.

JPMorgan

BlackRock CEO Fink does not see inflation as transitory

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BlackRock Inc Chief Executive Larry Fink said he does not see inflation as transitory and that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to react to higher inflation numbers.

"I am not calling for 1970's inflation but I just think we are going to have above 2% inflation .. probably closer to 3.5% to 4.0%," Fink said in an interview with Reuters.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-ceo-fink-does-not-135524014.html

We remain constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown. Even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as if the global economy is entering late cycle, our research suggests the recovery is still in early-cycle and gradually transitioning towards mid-cycle. While the second derivatives of macro-cyclical indicators in US and Asia (JPM QMIs) appear to be cresting, going from exaggerated low levels to seemingly extreme high levels, we believe this does not signal the beginning of a down cycle but rather a transition to a more sustained cycle.
Continuation of US recovery is rooted in the improving labor market (healthy job gains and wage growth), still very strong consumer setup (i.e. record household savings and wealth), healthy corporate fundamentals with strong pricing power, supportive global central bank policies which continue to prioritize employment growth over inflation fears (e.g. last week Powell again confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, ECB announced new monetary policy strategy, PBOC reduced required reserve ratio), and further potential for broadening fiscal policies (e.g. infrastructure spending, child-care tax).

JPMorgan

A significant development over the past few days is an inflection of COVID-19 delta cases in the UK. Many investors were watching in fear the fast rise of delta cases in the UK over the past month, looking for signs of a slowdown or inflection. With UK cases significantly down over the week, the peak appears to be behind us, which could be a signal for rotation back into value, reflation and reopening themes (this fast timeline of 30-40 days is similar to what we saw in India). Additionally, despite the fast rise of cases to near peak levels, mortality is currently 95% lower than during the January peak. This should give confidence to investors that delta is not a serious threat to global growth.

JPMorgan

Q2 US earnings season has been spectacular so far

After four quarters of enormous beats (14-21%), consensus estimates for Q2 had been raised substantially. However, it’s becoming clear that these raises were still far too conservative.

• 296 S&P 500 companies have reported so far (71% of market cap), a record 88% have exceeded expectations vs. the 15-yr average of 74% and 81-86% over the last year.

• Earnings have come in 16% above expectations, in line with the stunning last four quarters, but way above the 5% average of the last 15 years.

Earnings delivery has been very strong with a record number of companies beating both sales and EPS estimates. 90% of companies in the US and 62% in Europe have beat estimates, with EPS surprises running at 21% and 13%, respectively. Commodity sectors, Financials, and Discretionary have reported strong results while Defensives have lagged. Corporate guidance has been strong in the US.

JPMorgan

We continue to see the global economy accelerating in 2H21 as pandemic headwinds fade and services-sector activity normalizes. The latest data, notably last week’s PMIs, are mixed but on balance support robust growth ahead. Moreover, while certain fiscal supports in the US and Europe will be expiring through 2H21, they should be more than offset by improving macroeconomic conditions—as underscored by last week’s boomy US payroll report. At the same time, underlying rates of core inflation remain near multi-decade highs as supply bottlenecks boost goods pricing while the rapid normalization of the services sector produces a rise in prices from depressed levels. Risks around the Delta wave of the pandemic remain just that—risks. With case counts in the UK having come down significantly, we believe the template bodes well for regions where Delta is still on the rise. With continued progress on vaccinations, any new pandemic-related drags should be a minor hitch in an otherwise robust recovery. Much of the central banking community seems to share our constructive outlook. As several DM central banks begin scaling back accommodation, any hitch in growth from Delta is assumed to be transitory, while there is growing conviction that a robust recovery will keep inflation elevated even after the current spike rolls off. While the focus is on balance sheet policies, rate lift-off—albeit still far down the road—is also creeping into the conversation.

JPMorgan

The collapse in inventories will be a bigger boost to growth 2H21 than previously expected. While non-manufacturing activity is now tracking a strong and steady recovery, the goods-producing sector has been buffeted by supply constraints alongside continued gains in final demand. The result has been a slump in inventories that, over the past two decades at least, looks unprecedented outside of a recession. The level of inventories appears to be incredibly lean, and a projected correction in the coming months will boost factory output (and thus GDP) even as final goods demand growth steps back. This boost, combined with continued strong gains in service sector activity, supports our outlook for global GDP growth in 2H21 to step up from its already-robust 1H21 pace.

JPMorgan

We continue to hold a bullish Equities view into year-end, in contrast to consensus which is turning more and more pessimistic. The technical picture is cleaner and the peak in activity and liquidity indicators is now fully digested. The market is likely to get comfortable with the view that growth will remain above trend in 2H, supported by both robust consumer and capex, as well as continued fiscal support. China policy is turning for the better and the USD short squeeze has materialized. Delta is a wild card, but we believe the 3rd wave might not result in the renewed strict lockdowns and the consensus has likely become too bearish on Delta fallout.

JPMorgan

Notenbank-Gouverneur Holzmann: "Wir müssen nicht das ganze Geld ausgeben"
Angesichts der gestiegenen Inflation soll die Europäische Zentralbank vom Gas gehen und ihre Anleihenkäufe zurückfahren, sagt Österreichs Notenbankchef Robert Holzmann. Dass nun die Lohnabschlüsse die Preise hochtreiben, glaubt er nicht

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000129313350/notenbank-gouverneur-holzmann-wir-muessen- nicht-das-ganze-geld-ausgeben

We retain a pro-risk allocation on strong global growth as the world continues to recover from the pandemic, accommodative policy, and continuing earnings surprises. Reopening of the global economy was delayed by the delta variant spread, but the delta wave is likely receding in the US and globally, and the pandemic recovery should restart (Rt is falling and below one in ~90% of US states, infections are dropping in 40 states, and global cases are falling for the past 2 weeks)

JPMorgan

Sehr lesenswert:

What on Earth Is Going on in Commodities?

As the world embarks on its journey towards 'net zero', a few implications seem straightforward: coal should be oversupplied, natural gas should stay abundant and the marginal cost of electricity should approach zero as renewables take over.

In the fullness of time, these propositions may well turn out to be correct, but the road between here and 'net zero' seems to have a few unexpected twists and turns.

Take the current situation: global coal consumption peaked back in 2013, yet the price of thermal coal is currently close to its all-time high, having more than doubled in the last few months to ~US$180/tonne. The same has happened to liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has rallied from ~US$7 to ~US$20/mmbtu over the last few months – also an all-time high. European natural gas prices have risen in tandem, which in turn has driven a sharp spike in electricity prices: day-ahead prices across continental Europe have gone from ~€50 to ~€150/MWh – you guessed it, an all-time high. As a knock-on effect, aluminium prices have soared, from US$2,000/tonne at the start of the year to US$2,900/tonne today.

This is unusual, especially because the global economy has yet to recovery fully from the COVID-19 crisis. So what is going on? A common set of factors ties these rallies together. As often happens, the story starts in China.

The combination of a post-COVID-19 recovery and unusually hot weather has increased consumption of electricity sharply this year. Most of China’s electricity is produced from coal, but domestic coal production is increasingly struggling to keep up – the result of regulatory reforms, under-investment and more stringent HSE inspections. Another important source of electricity generation in China is hydropower, but because of droughts in key parts of the country, hydropower has failed to grow this year too.

Over the summer, this led to power crunches that forced regional governments to curtail consumption – street lights were even switched off at night in a number of regions. Another victim of these measures was aluminium smelting, which is a particularly electricity-intensive process. Normally, China supplies ~60% of the world’s aluminium. With its production curtailed and global demand continuing to grow, aluminium prices soared.

China’s domestic coal shortage compelled it to turn to the seaborne market. However, coal production elsewhere has also had its issues – e.g., heavy rains and staff shortages in Indonesia, railway disruptions in Russia and unrest in South Africa. As the seaborne coal market tightened, global coal prices rallied.

The same factors drove up China’s demand for LNG, but here China was not alone. For example, droughts in Brazil also curtailed its production of hydropower, driving up LNG demand as well. With a number of production outages at liquefaction terminals, the global LNG market has tightened severely in the last few months.

Europe is usually the end market for a substantial share of the world’s LNG. However, with other regions pulling harder, European LNG imports declined sharply this summer. At the same time, power generation from offshore wind disappointed – it has not been that windy in Europe recently – boosting demand for natural gas. Yet, with gas supply from Russia and other regions constrained, Europe was unable to build natural gas inventories as much as it normally does in the summer. European gas inventories are now unusually low for this time of the year, with winter yet to start. As natural gas prices largely set electricity prices, they have surged in tandem.

So what does this all mean? We highlight three conclusions:
First, this sequence of events shows how inter-connected commodity markets are. One region impacts another and multiple commodities are eventually linked. A drought in China can drive up the price of electricity prices in Spain but also the cost of soft drink cans in the US.

Second, this year has shown how difficult it can be to anticipate such moves. Even a few months ago, the common view was that practically all these commodities were abundant, and would become more so over time.
Finally, it shows how little margin of safety there is in the world’s energy system, and this has important implications for the future.

Over the next few decades, the world will need to fundamentally retool the way it produces and consumes energy. So far, the supply side of the energy system is adjusting faster than our consumption patterns. The world is still in the early stages of its decarbonisation journey, so this creates the potential for further instability and squeezes in the future. Their impact could be felt well beyond the energy and commodities markets, impacting everything from growth to inflation to politics.

MS

Sehr interessant!! Wer ist MS bzw aus welcher Quelle ist das?

>Sehr interessant!! Wer ist MS

Morgan Stanley

>>Sehr interessant!! Wer ist MS
>
>Morgan Stanley

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-sheets

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Stock Rout Overdone, Urges Dip Buying


Says selloff driven by technical factors amid poor liquidity
Economic momentum seen picking up amid easing virus risk


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-sees-stock-rout-o verdone-urges-dip-buying

>JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Stock Rout Overdone, Urges Dip
>Buying
>
>
> Says selloff driven by technical factors amid poor liquidity
> Economic momentum seen picking up amid easing virus risk
>
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-sees-stock-rout-o verdone-urges-dip-buying

Nach 5% Verlust schon wieder zum Einsteig raten, zeigt wie weit die Hausse schon fortgeschritten ist.

>Nach 5% Verlust schon wieder zum Einsteig raten, zeigt wie weit die Hausse schon fortgeschritten ist.>

es urteilt sich leicht über das risiko anderer.

Our fundamental thesis remains unchanged, and we see sell-offs as opportunities to buy the dip. We think the sell-off that escalated earlier this week was primarily driven by technical selling flows (CTAs and option hedgers) in an environment of poor liquidity, and overreaction of discretionary traders to perceived risks. We remain of the view that any weakness should be used to add to Equities. In general, we think risks are well-flagged and priced in, with stock multiples back at post-pandemic lows for many reopening/recovery exposures.

We expect the reflation/reopening trade to resume its outperformance and internal leadership to become more cyclical, as the delta wave fades and monetary policy normalization boosts rates. We believe the recent slowdown is temporary and primarily driven by the Delta wave which delayed normalization and reopening of the global economy. We now think that the delta wave has likely peaked and is now receding in the US and globally. As long as COVID-19 continues to ease, strong growth should reside ahead and activity should be bound to re-accelerate into 2022 as businesses start to rebuild depleted inventories and ramp-up capex. DM Central banks are moving towards normalizing policy but most of them will remain growth-oriented and accommodative by historical standards. Ultimately, we believe that this process should bring higher bond yields and boost cyclicals, which we think likely bottomed in early August.

JPMorgan

We do not believe the recent bout of de-risking will lead to sustained falls, and maintain the stance to keep buying into any weakness. The latest flare-up of China credit concerns has provided the excuse for some weakness, but one risks getting whipsawed by selling on the back of this. China plays are oversold and we believe that policymakers are able and willing to backstop the system. This is not the first time that China credit is in the spotlight. In 2015, there were acute fears over the “China property and credit bubble bursting”. China plays, such as Miners, were down significantly then, and again this time matched that pace of falls. In contrast, the balance sheets of some affected parties, such as European Miners and Energy, are much better now than they were then. Further, we note property inventory is subdued, house prices have been moving up this year, FX is much more stable, and onshore credit is well behaved vs. 2015. Importantly, the current stress is not happening at the point of peak momentum as China credit and growth indicators have been decelerating for the best part of a year. We think that most of the slowing in China activity is behind us, and that stabilization will, in part, occur due to an improving policy stance.

JPMorgan

gelöscht

gelöscht

Permabullen:

Our core view remains that the COVID situation will continue improving driving a cyclical recovery. This will be the case for at least the next 3-4 months given COVID wave dynamics, but most likely also beyond that. We believe that this was the last significant wave, and an effective end to the pandemic – in the historical echo of the 1918/1919 pandemic (and a number of other pandemics in the last century) that also had ~4 waves and lasted about ~20 months. New COVID treatments are also supportive of this view. Given the multi-decade lows in capex, inventories and favorable conditions of consumer balance sheets, we believe the cyclical recovery can run strongly for the next year or longer.

JPMorgan

Ihr Wort in Gottes Ohr.

We are bullish on Equities as the COVID delta wave rolls over. We believe the impact of delta is not only priced-in but overdone, prompting us to raise our S&P 500 price and EPS targets for both 2021 and 2022. The combination of reopening, higher yields and inflation, and rising oil prices should all be supportive of a rotation towards Cyclicals. In particular, we reiterate our Energy OW as the sector is cheap and under-owned, and should benefit from further increases in oil prices. In Japan, we see upside based on reopening, news flow on COVID therapies, a stable LDP administration under Kishida, and likely an additional stimulus package. We continue to be bullish on EM stocks, seeing robust earnings and emphasizing Cyclicals / Value and reopening / reflation beneficiaries, and believe China property sector stress will likely be contained.

JPMorgan

The Q3 reporting season is unlikely to disappoint overall. The general sentiment is that the Q3 reporting season will be challenging, given the combination of the activity slowdown, supply distortions and the energy price acceleration. However, consensus EPS growth projections have taken a step lower vs the prior quarter too, which offers a cushion. Notably, weekly EPS revisions have just turned negative in the US for the first time since last summer, concentrated in Cyclical sectors, which suggests analysts have already been reacting to the demand shortfall. We note that there is no forward-looking information in the current levels of EPS revisions and would advise to use any earnings generated weakness to add into. We remain in particular bullish on Energy and Banks.

JPMorgan

Global supply chain pressures are easing — if this persists S&P 500 should continue to deliver strong revenue growth and record margins. That said, there has been a growing concern among investors that supply chain challenges will linger and weigh on earnings growth. Based on 3Q earnings season, however, there is little evidence to support this pessimistic view. S&P 500 companies delivered much stronger than expected results (16% y/y revenue growth vs. 14% estimate, ~13.5% net income margin vs. pre-COVID ~12%) and some key companies gave an encouraging outlook on supply chains. Our view all along has been that supply and labor shortages would be temporary and normalize with a decline in COVID-19.

JPMorgan

Baltic Dry Index ist seit Mitte Oktober kollabiert:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.BADI

Goldman-Prognose
Omikron: Vier Szenarien für die Weltwirtschaft

Die Volkswirte von Goldman Sachs zeichnen vier Szenarien für die Auswirkungen der neuen Omikron-Virusvariante auf die Weltwirtschaft.

https://www.diepresse.com/6067584/omikron-vier-szenarien-fur-die-weltwirtschaft

Omicron variant doesn't shake Goldman Sachs' bullish 2022 stock market prediction

Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin reiterated Monday an S&P 500 target by the end of 2022 of 5,100. The figure marks a potential 12% increase in stock prices as measured from the S&P 500's current level.

"We expect that these gains will be driven primarily by earnings per share growth of 8% combined with a stable P/E multiple. This pattern would be consistent with the decomposition of returns usually seen at this point in the business cycle and would mimic the pattern of this year, where earnings lifted the market to record highs while the index multiple actually contracted," Kostin explained.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/omicron-variant-doesnt-shake-goldman-sachs-2022-stock-mark et-prediction-of-double-digit-percentage-returns-170329219.html

Wifo-Chef Felbermayr: "Haben auch überreagiert"

Die Pandemie hat weltweit zu Lieferengpässen geführt, dazu kam die Blockade des Suezkanals. Trotzdem werden sich viele Märkte nach der Krise stabilisieren, erwartet Gabriel Felbermayr. Doch die Chipkrise droht zum Problem für Europa zu werden.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000131286154/wifo-chef-felbermayr-haben-auch-ueberreagi ert

Der Rückenwind für die Börsen wird nächstes Jahr schwächer

So stark wie heuer werden die Zuwächse bei Aktien 2022 wohl nicht ausfallen, sind sich Experten einig. Trotz des Gegenwinds sehen sie aber keine attraktivere Anlage

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000132145134/der-rueckenwind-fuer-die-boersen-wird-naec hstes-jahr-schwaecher

War schon jemals einer vorher in Sicht?

JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff In Sight

Strategists say market concentration doesn’t signal peak
U.S. rally may become broader in January, according to note

There’s little reason to fear that the rally that catapulted U.S. stocks to successive records this year will end soon, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists. In fact, it may get broader.

“Conditions for a large selloff are not in place right now given already low investor positioning, record buybacks, limited systematic amplifiers, and positive January seasonals,” the strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients. “Investor positioning is too bearish -- the market has taken the hawkish central bank and bearish omicron narratives too far.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/jpmorgan-says-investors-too-bearish-do esn-t-see-stock-selloff

>War schon jemals einer vorher in Sicht?
>
>JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff In Sight
>
>Strategists say market concentration doesn’t signal peak
>U.S. rally may become broader in January, according to note
>
>There’s little reason to fear that the rally that catapulted
>U.S. stocks to successive records this year will end soon,
>according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists. In fact, it
>may get broader.
>
>“Conditions for a large selloff are not in place right now
>given already low investor positioning, record buybacks,
>limited systematic amplifiers, and positive January
>seasonals,” the strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote
>in a note to clients. “Investor positioning is too bearish --
>the market has taken the hawkish central bank and bearish
>omicron narratives too far.”
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/jpmorgan-says-investors-too-bearish-do esn-t-see-stock-selloff

Was ich interessant finde, dass der Markt abseits der Big Cap und Indizes alles andere als boomt.

Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/it-s-december-1999-based-on-the-nyse-s hares-touching-new-lows?srnd=markets-vp

>Was ich interessant finde, dass der Markt abseits der Big Cap
>und Indizes alles andere als boomt.
>
>Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334
>companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week
>low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year
>highs. That’s happened only three other times in history --
>all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is
>chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/it-s-december-1999-based-on-the-nyse-s hares-touching-new-lows?srnd=markets-vp

Und dazu passend:

Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is missing out on the year-end rally on Wall Street.

U.S. stocks are coming to the end of 2021 on a high note, despite rising coronavirus cases, with the benchmark S&P 500 index gaining 1.4% on Monday while the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.6%. Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF, meanwhile, declined 1.7% -- further cementing the fund’s underperformance this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/cathie-wood-s-flagship-ark-fund-misses -out-on-year-end-cheer?srnd=premium-europe

>Was ich interessant finde, dass der Markt abseits der Big Cap
>und Indizes alles andere als boomt.
>
>Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334
>companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week
>low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year
>highs.

Sehr interessant. Würde ich eigentlich positiv interpretieren, keine breitgestreute Euphorie.

>
>>Was ich interessant finde, dass der Markt abseits der Big
>Cap
>>und Indizes alles andere als boomt.
>>
>>Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high,
>334
>>companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a
>52-week
>>low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year
>>highs.
>
>Sehr interessant. Würde ich eigentlich positiv interpretieren,
>keine breitgestreute Euphorie.

Ich sehe es eher differenziert. Habe die Erfahrung gemacht, dass es bei einer Trendwende zuerst die schwachen Unternehmen oder die spekulativen Titel betrifft. Und von dort sich die Trendwende noch oben weiter vorarbeitet. But we will see.

>Ich sehe es eher differenziert. Habe die Erfahrung gemacht,
>dass es bei einer Trendwende zuerst die schwachen Unternehmen
>oder die spekulativen Titel betrifft. Und von dort sich die
>Trendwende noch oben weiter vorarbeitet. But we will see.


Fragt sich haben die umgedreht oder die Rally gar nicht erst mitgemacht?

>>Ich sehe es eher differenziert. Habe die Erfahrung
>gemacht,
>>dass es bei einer Trendwende zuerst die schwachen
>Unternehmen
>>oder die spekulativen Titel betrifft. Und von dort sich
>die
>>Trendwende noch oben weiter vorarbeitet. But we will see.
>
>
>Fragt sich haben die umgedreht oder die Rally gar nicht erst
>mitgemacht?
>
>

Also die haben Rally deutlich mitgemacht und angetrieben. Jedoch beginnend ab Q2 Richtung Süden gedreht. Betrifft zahlreiche Meme Stocks wie bspw. AMC, GME, etc., aber auch etwas größere Titel wie ZOOM und natürlich ARKK.

>>Fragt sich haben die umgedreht oder die Rally gar nicht
>erst
>>mitgemacht?
>>
>>
>
>Also die haben Rally deutlich mitgemacht und angetrieben.
>Jedoch beginnend ab Q2 Richtung Süden gedreht. Betrifft
>zahlreiche Meme Stocks wie bspw. AMC, GME, etc., aber auch
>etwas größere Titel wie ZOOM und natürlich ARKK.


Die Blase läßt Luft ab. Hm.

Ein Strauß voller Ausblicke

Ich bin es ja durchaus gewohnt, am Jahresende mit Ausblicken von allen möglichen Kapitalmarktteilnehmer:innen geflutet zu werden, aber so divergent wie dieses Jahr waren die Glaskugeln schon lange nicht.

https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/ein-strauss-voller-ausblicke-wolfgang-matejka-40 4532

Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2022

Byron and Joe’s Ten Surprises of 2022 are as follows:

The combination of strong earnings clashes with rising interest rates, resulting in the S&P 500 making no progress in 2022. Value outperforms growth. High volatility continues and there is a correction that approaches, but does not exceed, 20%.
While the prices of some commodities decline, wages and rents continue to rise and the Consumer Price Index and other widely followed measures of inflation increase by 4.5% for the year. Declines in prices of transportation and energy encourage the die-hard proponents of the view that inflation is “transitory,” but persistent inflation becomes the dominant theme.
The bond market begins to respond to rising inflation and tapering by the Federal Reserve, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises to 2.75%. The Fed completes its tapering and raises rates four times in 2022.
In spite of the Omicron variant, group meetings and convention gatherings return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. While Covid remains a problem throughout both the developed and the less-developed world, normal conditions are largely restored in the US. People spend three to four a days a week in offices and return to theaters, concerts, and sports arenas en masse.
Chinese policymakers respond to recent turmoil in the country’s property markets by curbing speculative investment in housing. As a result, there is more capital from Chinese households that needs to be invested. A major asset management industry begins to flourish in China, creating opportunities for Western companies.
The price of gold rallies by 20% to a new record high. Despite strong growth in the US, investors seek the perceived safety and inflation hedge of gold amidst rising prices and volatility. Gold reclaims its title as a haven for newly minted billionaires, even as cryptocurrencies continue to gain market share.
While the major oil-producing countries conclude that high oil prices are speeding up the implementation of alternative energy programs and allowing US shale producers to become profitable again, these countries can’t increase production enough to meet demand. The price of West Texas crude confounds forward curves and analyst forecasts when it rises above $100 per barrel.
Suddenly, the nuclear alternative for power generation enters the arena. Enough safety measures have been developed to reduce fears about its dangers, and the viability of nuclear power is widely acknowledged. A major nuclear site is approved for development in the Midwest of the United States. Fusion technology emerges as a possible future source of energy.
ESG evolves beyond corporate policy statements. Government agencies develop and enforce new regulatory standards that require public companies in the US to publish information documenting progress on various metrics deemed critical in the new era. Federal Reserve governors spearhead implementation of stress tests to assess financial institutions’ vulnerability to climate change scenarios.
In a setback to its green energy program, the United States finds it cannot buy enough lithium batteries to power the electric vehicles planned for production. China controls the lithium market, as well as the markets for the cobalt and nickel used in making the transmission rods, and it opts to reserve most of the supply of these commodities for domestic use.

https://www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises -of-2022/

Die Aktienmarktstrategen der US-Bank JPMorgan trauen den Börsen eine Fortsetzung ihres zuletzt starken Laufes zu. Das Konjunkturumfeld bleibe positiv und mit Blick auf Chinas Wirtschaft stünden die Zeichen auf Besserung, erklärten die Analysten um Mislav Matejka in einer am Dienstag vorliegenden Studie.

Sie sehen zudem Anzeichen einer Entspannung bei den globalen Lieferkettenengpässen sowie eines nachlassenden Drucks durch hohe Energiekosten. Auch führe die Omikron-Variante des Coronavirus wohl zu milderen Krankheitsverläufen, weshalb die Folgen ihrer Ausbreitung für die Mobilität der Menschen besser beherrschbar seien. Und letztlich sei gerade der Jahresbeginn eine typisch gute Zeit für Aktien.

Unterstützung erwarten die Experten auch durch die Geldpolitik. Die US-Notenbank Fed dürfte nicht noch stärker an der Zinsschraube drehen, als die Akteure an den Finanzmärkten derzeit erwarteten, und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) dürfte mit Blick auf den Leitzins vorerst nichts unternehmen. Gleichzeitig sollte der Inflationsdruck nachlassen.

Mit Blick auf die Erwartungen der Investoren hinsichtlich der Unternehmensgewinne 2022 sehen die JPMorgan-Strategen Luft nach oben. Das gelte auch mit Blick auf die beginnende Berichtssaison zum Schlussquartal 2021.

Morgan Stanley Strategists Join Herd of Bulls for Europe Stocks

Morgan Stanley strategists are the latest voice on Wall Street to join the ranks of European stock market bulls.

Estimates in the region and in Japan “look low, while valuations are undemanding,” the strategists led by Andrew Sheets

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/morgan-stanley-strategists-join-herd-o f-bulls-for-europe-stocks

Fear & Greed Index

Erst leicht im Angst-Bereich:

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike Cycles
S&P averages 9% return in 12 rate-rising cycles since 1950s

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-23/u-s-stocks-historically-deliver-strong -gains-in-fed-hike-cycles

RBI: Aktien auch 2022 alternativlos - EZB wohl bald vor einem Schwenk
Renditen geringer, doch ATX auch heuer wieder Outperformer - 2022 vier US-Zinserhöhungen erwartet, 2023 nochmals - Brezinschek: EZB-Zinsanhebung vielleicht doch schon heuer

Auch im Jahr 2022 sind Aktien aus Sicht der Finanzmarktexperten von Raiffeisen Research ohne Alternative in der Veranlagung. Die Zeiten zweistelliger Kursgewinne bzw. Renditen seien aber vorbei - die leicht erreichbaren, tief hängenden Trauben gepflückt. Der Wiener Börse-Leitindex ATX dürfte auch heuer wieder zu den Outperformern zählen, hieß es am Freitag. Bis gegen Jahresende wird von der EZB ein Schwenk erwartet mit Zinserhöhungen spätestens 2023.
Inflation und Zinsen seien bestimmend an den Kapitalmärkten, wobei die Inflation länger bleibe und hartnäckiger sei als zunächst angenommen, sagte Gunter Deuber, Leiter von Raiffeisen Research. Von den Notenbanken könnten Überraschungen kommen, osteuropäische hätten angesichts hoher Teuerungsraten schon Zinsen angehoben. In den USA habe dies die Fed bereits angekündigt - die EZB trotz ihres keineswegs eingeschränkten Spielraums noch nicht. Für Ende 2022 erwarte man sich eine Änderung in der Kommunikationspolitik der Eurohüter, so Deuber.

Nach der Rebound der Konjunktur auf das Vorkrisenniveau sei mit einem fortgesetzten Aufschwung zu rechnen. Man sehe ein konstruktives makroökonomisches Umfeld, die starken Jo-Jo-Effekte der letzten eineinhalb Jahre durch Corona würden zu Ende gehen, für 2023 sei ein Übergang zu einem normalen Konjunkturjahr zu erwarten. Österreich gehöre zu den "Erholungskaisern" in der Eurozone: Nach dem sehr heftigen Einbruch 2020 um 6,7 Prozent habe es 2021 beim BIP mit Plus 5,3 Prozent eine dynamische Erholung gegeben, für heuer rechne man mit 4,5 Prozent Zuwachs, für 2023 mit 2,2 Prozent. Die Unternehmensgewinne in Österreich hätten sich sehr positiv entwickelt, bei den ATX-Unternehmen würden sie heuer nochmals zulegen. "Der ATX dürfte auch heuer wieder zu den Outperformern zählen", so Equity-Research-Leiter Christian Hinterwallner.

Allerdings knabbere die Inflation an den Ertragsraten, und es seien am Aktienmarkt keine zweistelligen Renditen mehr zu erwarten. Die hohe Teuerung, angetrieben durch den starken Anstieg der Energiepreise, habe auch mittelfristige Implikationen. Für die Eurozone rechnet man bei Raiffeisen für heuer mit 3,6 Prozent Inflation, das ist deutlich mehr als die 3,2 Prozent, die die EZB erwartet. Allerdings werde die Kernrate (ohne Energie und Nahrungsmittel) heuer bei nur 2,3 Prozent liegen und 2023 nicht mehr über 2 Prozent.

Aus Lohnsteigerungen gebe es in der Eurozone noch deutlich weniger Druck als in den USA - oder in Osteuropa. Im CEE-Raum hätten Notenbanken bereits Leitzinsen erhöht, etwa in Tschechien auf 3,75 oder in Ungarn auf 4 Prozent, erinnerte Deuber in einem Online-Pressegespräch. Allerdings gebe es in Zentraleuropa einen Inflationsdruck wie in den USA, die Kernraten hätten bis zu 5, 5 1/2 oder 6 Prozent betragen. Auch die sehr engen Arbeitsmärkte würden hier die Inflation hochtreiben. Auch wenn es in Europa insgesamt noch keinen Druck von der Lohnseite gebe, sollte man die mittelfristigen Inflationsrisiken nicht unterschätzen.

Die geldpolitische "Entkoppelung" zwischen Europa und den USA hält Deuber für unnotwendig, für "nicht angezeigt", denn die wirtschaftliche Erholung sei in Europa fast so wie in den USA. "Der Spielraum der EZB ist nicht mehr eingeschränkt", so der Experte. Bis Dezember habe die EZB das Inflationsthema "heruntergespielt", meinte RBI-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek, erst in der letzten Zinssitzung am 16. Dezember habe man das Wort "temporär" in Bezug auf die hohe Teuerung gestrichen. Die US-Fed habe zugleich schon klargemacht, dass ein mittel- und längerfristiges Inflationsproblem gebe: "Die Kommunikation von Fed-Chef Powell ist eindeutig: Die erhöhte Teuerung ist eine Gefahr für das Ziel Vollbeschäftigung." Die RBI rechne ab März mit vier US-Zinserhöhungen, die Mitglieder des Fed-Offenmarktausschusses (FOMC) selbst mit drei. Das werde sich "2023 fortsetzen", es werde dann weitere vier Zinsanhebungen geben, so Brezinschek. Erst 2024 werde ein Einpendeln auf ein normales Niveau erfolgen.

"Im Herbst 2022 ist die entscheidende Phase, wo die EZB Farbe bekennen muss", meinte der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI). Die EZB versuche zwar so lange wie möglich, das Einlagenzinsniveau negativ bzw. den Haupt-Refi bei Null zu halten, aber die Meinungen in der Europäischen Zentralbank seien "breit gefächert" und das Wording werde "vorsichtiger". Eventuell könnte es doch schon Ende dieses Jahres Zinserhöhungen geben, glaubt der RBI-Chefanalyst persönlich. Im offiziellen Ausblick hat Raiffeisen Research eine EZB-Zinsanhebung erst für 2023. Im ersten Schritt werde man wohl vom negativen Einlagesatz abgehen, so Brezinschek. Die Höhe der Staatsschulden seien "kein Hemmnis für Zinserhöhungen", widersprach er einem öfter gehörten Argument. Nicht deren Höhe sei interessant für die Staaten, nur die Abreifungspolitik.

Auch wenn mögliche Sanktionen gegen Russland von den USA oder aus Europa im Zusammenhang mit der Ukraine "derzeit nicht Teil unserer Überlegungen" seien, wie Deuber betonte, könnten solche Maßnahmen schon einen "weitreichenden globalen Einfluss" haben und den Aktienmärkten im zweiten Halbjahr ein Rücksetzer drohen. Man sehe zwar einen gewissen Konzessionswillen von Europa und auch den USA, aber Russland habe viel weiter gehende Forderungen. Auf militärische Schritte Moskaus gegen die Ukraine würden wohl die USA und das United Kingdom - als Signatar-Staaten des Budapester Memorandum von 1994 bei der damaligen KSZE-Konferenz - wohl "mit sehr einschneidenden Maßnahmen reagieren", so Deuber, und das wäre dann auch ein großes Risiko für den positiven Ausblick auf die Kapitalmärkte im ersten Halbjahr.

RBI-Experte Brezinschek erwartet heuer vier Fed-Zinserhöhungen
Um je einen Viertelprozent - Chefanalyst: Im Juni eventuell sogar größerer Schritt - Vorrang für Inflationsbekämpfung - "EZB wartet noch ab und will so lange wie möglich durchtauchen"

Raiffeisen-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek rechnet mit vier Leitzinserhöhungen durch die US-Notenbank Fed binnen zwölf Monaten, jeweils in Schritten von einem Viertelprozent. Bei einer weiter sehr starken Inflation im ersten Halbjahr sei vielleicht im Juni sogar eine Anhebung um 50 Basispunkte drinnen, meinte der Experte nach den Fed-Statements von Mittwochabend am Donnerstag im Ö1-"Morgenjournal" des ORF-Radio. Die EZB werde zu ihrem Kurs wohl im Herbst Farbe bekennen müssen.
Fed-Chairman Jerome Powell habe die Finanzmärkte schon seit Herbst auf eine bevorstehende Trendwende in der Geldpolitik vorbereitet, und er habe Mittwochabend "ganz klar gemacht, dass die Zinsen im März angehoben werden" - zum ersten Mal seit vier Jahren. Wenn in den USA die Beschäftigungslage weiterhin gut bleibe, dann führe an einer Zinserhöhung im März nichts vorbei, so der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI).

Denn anders als die EZB habe die US-Notenbank zwei Ziele: stabile Preise und eine möglichst hohe Beschäftigung. "Und nachdem Powell gemeint hat, dass die Inflation das Ziel Vollbeschäftigung gefährdet, ist klar, dass der Inflationsbekämpfung Priorität eingeräumt wird", sagte Brezinschek. Im Jänner und Februar werde es zwar einen Basiseffekt für etwas niedrigere Inflationsraten geben, "aber die Preissteigerungen werden sich noch immer deutlich über dem 2-Prozent-Ziel befinden".

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) werde erst einmal abwarten, auch weil sie eine andere Inflationsprognose und -erwartung habe. Denn schon im nächsten Jahr sollte laut EZB-Prognosen die Inflation wieder unter dem Ziel von zwei Prozent sein, so Brezinschek, und die Jahre danach ebenfalls: "Also sie hält, offiziell vorerst einmal, an dem Ziel, an der Meinung einer temporären Inflation fest. Und daher versucht sie, so lange wie möglich durchzutauchen."

Die "entscheidende Phase" für die EZB werde wohl der Herbst sein, denn dann werde man sehen, wie stark die Preise noch vom Zwei-Prozent-Inflationsziel entfernt seien bzw. möglicherweise zu weit darüberliegen. "Und dann wird die EZB Farbe bekennen müssen, ob sie sich der Inflationsbekämpfung auch mit Zinserhöhungen oder der Verabschiedung aus dem Negativ-Zinsumfeld bereit erklärt oder ob sie noch weiter auf ihrem aktuellen Zinsniveau fortsetzen wollen."

Perma-Bulls bei JPM

JPMorgan Strategists Say Buy Stocks as Rate Hikes Now Priced In

Equities cycle is far from over, JPMorgan’s Matejka writes
Strategists split as Morgan Stanley still sees stocks ‘winter’

After a bumpy start to the year, the risks facing global stocks are now priced in, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Mislav Matejka.

Neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank will move further into hawkish territory, “at least relative to what is priced in currently,” strategists led by Matejka wrote in a note on Monday. Meanwhile, headline inflation is peaking and earnings are likely to surprise positively. “We believe that equities still offer upside, and that the cycle is far from over,” they said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-07/jpmorgan-strategists-say-buy-stocks-as -rate-hikes-now-priced-in

Niemand erwartet weitere gute Wachstumsjahre an den Börsen. Aber genau das ist darum wahrscheinlich. Wie bitte? Eine Erklärung.

Quelle: https://www.handelszeitung.ch/geld/uberraschung-der-aktienmarkt-konnte-auch-2022-boomen

Fear&Greed Index

Etwas Angst:

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Ein Perma-Bull:

JPMorgan's Kolanovic Says Stocks Will Rise on Pandemic End, China Stimulus

(Bloomberg) -- There are two things that give Marko Kolanovic confidence in his bullish stocks call for 2022, even after a difficult start to the year for financial markets, with rising inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions. The co-head of global research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. has been asserting for some time that investors should buy dips in stocks -- but now he sees the acute pandemic phase of Covid nearing an end and better times ahead from China, which he expects to offset Federal Reserve tightening. And he sees scope for significant rotation within equities as these changes take place.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/marko-kolanovic-interview-china-pandemic- s-end-to-boost-stocks
Copyright © BloombergQuint

The World has changed and changed utterly – although we may not realise it yet. We are likely on course for massive disruption, inflation, rising geopolitical crisis and uncertainty, and a high probability of stagflation.

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/hold-the-narrative-and-win-the-g ame-of-risk/

"Wenn Aktien billiger werden, steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ich sie erwerbe", so Buffett. Dies gelte selbst dann, wenn der Konflikt zu einem neuen Kalten Krieg oder sogar zu einem 3. Weltkrieg eskalieren würde.

Eines steht für Buffett nämlich fest: Falls ein bedeutender Krieg ausbrechen würde, dann würde der Wert des Geldes abnehmen. "Ich meine, das ist praktisch während jedes Krieges passiert, von dem ich weiß", so der Starinvestor. "Deshalb wäre der Besitz von Geld das letzte, was ich während eines Krieges wollte."

Quelle: https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/investieren-in-kriegszeiten-das-rat-starinvest or-warren-buffett-1031260534

The Future is Long Term Energy, Defence, CyberSecurity and Agri

“How does one get a Starfighter? Buy a field in Germany and wait….”

This morning – The World is Utterly Changed. The new imperatives are: Energy and Food Security, Defence and Cybersecurity. Climate Change will become a point of Western Friction. New Geopolitical Lines are being drawn.

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/the-future-is-long-term-energy-d efence-cybersecurity-and-agri/