Seid gierig, wenn andere ängstlich sind, und seid ängstlich, wenn andere gierig sind (Warren Buffett)

An der Börse sagt uns oft das Gefühl, was mir machen, und der Verstand, was wir vermeiden sollen. (André Kostolany)

Das Wissen um den richtigen Zeitpunkt ist der halbe Erfolg. (Couve de Murville)

Das Geheimnis des Börsengeschäfts liegt darin, zu erkennen, was der Durchschnittsbürger glaubt, dass der Durchschnittsbürger tut. (John Maynard Keynes)

Die ganze Börse hängt davon ab, ob es mehr Aktien gibt als Idioten oder mehr Idioten als Aktien. (André Kostolany)

Risiko entsteht dann, wenn Anleger nicht wissen, was sie tun. (Warren Buffet)

  

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Antworten zu diesem Thema
Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7, Rang: SieurKolou74(296), 08.11.19 12:23
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: „Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...“
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Bärenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
43
All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
50
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52
U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
53
US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
54
QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
55
Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
56
US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
57
Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
58
ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
59
growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
60
The Tide Isn’t Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
61
Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
62
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
63
      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
64
      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
65
ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
66
Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
67
Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
68
JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
69
What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
70
What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
71
RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
72
Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
73
RE: Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
74
JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
75
Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
76
Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
77
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
78
Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
79
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
80
10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
81
The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
82
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
83
Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
84
JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
85
Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
86
The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
87
Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
88
Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
89
RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
90
Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
91
We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
92
      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
93
Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
01.6.18 16:22
94
RE: Trump twittert:
03.6.18 20:50
95
Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamen...
02.6.18 18:52
96
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
12.6.18 08:37
97
ECB policy announcement a material negative for the eur...
14.6.18 14:56
98
A yield curve inversion at the longer end also
18.6.18 09:14
99
Fed: This is not a consistent forecast
19.6.18 13:48
100
The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify
20.6.18 16:31
101
Trade war tensions
27.6.18 11:03
102
RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapita...
27.6.18 14:07
103
Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause
02.7.18 21:42
104
Trade war noch egal
09.7.18 10:36
105
Autos have never been this cheap
09.7.18 18:06
106
Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschü...
13.7.18 12:05
107
Economics:
15.7.18 12:41
108
Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity
15.7.18 12:50
109
Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and mo...
16.7.18 15:15
110
How strong is corporate activity?
16.7.18 15:51
111
Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimi...
18.7.18 09:45
112
Quantifying trade war is difficult
18.7.18 17:39
113
Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 14:59
114
RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 15:21
115
@realDonaldTrump: Euro ist manipuliert
20.7.18 14:51
116
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:31
117
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch gut analysiertwitzig
20.7.18 16:51
118
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:53
119
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 17:04
120
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:08
121
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:39
122
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:07
123
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:15
124
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 11:30
125
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 13:10
126
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch interessant
21.7.18 13:50
127
RE: @realDonaldTrump: Vorschlag: Drop all Tariffs
25.7.18 11:14
128
How late is the cycle?
21.7.18 09:05
129
Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting seas...
23.7.18 15:21
130
Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constr...
29.7.18 17:14
131
Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earni...
05.8.18 17:03
132
Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates t...
06.8.18 09:48
133
Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
06.8.18 11:29
134
Earning season so far
06.8.18 11:38
135
US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise
06.8.18 14:29
136
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel a...
10.8.18 14:51
137
RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise weni...
12.8.18 12:18
138
Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious
12.8.18 16:47
139
WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich ...
13.8.18 15:11
140
Turkey: What are the risks?
16.8.18 12:24
141
Trade War Won’t Dent China’s GDP
20.8.18 09:40
142
„Investment-Punk“ im Interview
02.9.18 22:45
143
RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 05:44
144
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 06:13
145
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:09
146
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:53
147
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 11:24
148
Alois Wögerbauer: Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht l...
04.9.18 08:41
149
A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade h...
10.9.18 20:41
150
Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce i...
17.9.18 12:32
151
Goldman Says Rising U.S. Rates ‘Boiling the Frog’ of Ri...
17.9.18 15:56
152
"Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gewinnt Trump im Handelskrieg"
19.9.18 10:07
153
Das Fed-Problem
21.9.18 11:38
154
Cyclicals will rebound
23.9.18 16:33
155
Ölpreisprognoseanhebung
23.9.18 18:17
156
Nowotny, seufz
23.9.18 19:51
157
RBI-Brezinschek: Gute Aussichten für Wirtschaft und Fin...
28.9.18 16:02
158
JPMorgan Says U.S.-China Tariffs to Go All Out
30.9.18 15:47
159
„Schieferfelder sind relativ rasch leer gepumpt“
02.10.18 09:48
160
Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields
09.10.18 14:31
161
Why are retail investors still cautious?
09.10.18 14:48
162
US-China tension and US equity selloff
11.10.18 12:34
163
Unfair to make comparisons between Italy and Greece
11.10.18 12:39
164
The
11.10.18 14:21
165
Update on Market Moves
12.10.18 19:05
166
JPMorgan: The dip should be bought
13.10.18 10:35
167
The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be...
13.10.18 13:49
168
Global Equity Strategy View
13.10.18 14:06
169
Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China
15.10.18 10:13
170
JPMorgan Global Equity strategists
21.10.18 16:31
171
US: Majority of systematic selling behind (~80%)
21.10.18 16:33
172
Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved
25.10.18 15:09
173
some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex
30.10.18 18:14
174
Crowding out?
31.10.18 14:41
175
VIX has produced a buy signal
03.11.18 19:56
176
US economy remains the most competitive economy in the ...
05.11.18 07:55
177
Two competing narratives
06.11.18 10:51
178
split Congress is the best outcome for US and global eq...
07.11.18 18:08
179
Lower oil prices is good news
14.11.18 21:47
180
JPM Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equitie...
18.11.18 14:16
181
Will Value Come Back?
18.11.18 15:01
182
Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Bank...
02.12.18 15:44
183
JPMorgan Asset Says Cash Better Than Stocks First Time ...
04.12.18 10:22
184
Goldman Sees Another Weak Year After a Lousy 2018
04.12.18 15:10
185
2018 will mark the year of the great de-rating
05.12.18 10:18
186
Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at 2019 an...
05.12.18 15:29
187
Erste-Fondsmanager für 2019 optimistisch: Mehr Chancen ...
05.12.18 16:57
188
No need to worry
07.12.18 08:21
189
RE: No need to worry
07.12.18 10:23
190
We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bonds
08.12.18 14:29
191
RE: We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bond...
08.12.18 14:59
192
US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 18:15
193
RE: US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 19:00
194
      RE: US Equities in 2019
10.12.18 08:41
195
      Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...interessant
10.12.18 12:56
196
      RE: Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...
10.12.18 13:29
197
      2018 has delivered losses on almost every asset class
10.12.18 14:34
198
      Extreme Fear
10.12.18 17:43
199
      Re: Extreme fear
10.12.18 22:04
200
Gehälter steigen
12.12.18 19:30
201
China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:02
202
RE: China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:08
203
ECB: there was one surprise
15.12.18 20:03
204
Equity markets arrested their decline this week
16.12.18 13:05
205
RBI: Märkte dürften alte Sorgen auch ins Jahr 2019 mitz...
19.12.18 14:06
206
Making Sense of the December Risk-off
20.12.18 08:52
207
World’s biggest hedge fund says stocks aren’t pricing i...
21.12.18 16:22
208
RE: World’s biggest hedge fund says stocks aren’t prici...
21.12.18 16:24
209
US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low
27.12.18 09:31
210
RE: US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low
27.12.18 11:03
211
USA Konjunktur: Sorgen der Märkte schwer nachvollziehba...
29.12.18 11:30
212
Next week we will find out how much damage the turbulen...
30.12.18 15:50
213
Our US equity strategists view the current sell-off, as...
06.1.19 16:47
214
Nowotny: "Mit dem Brexit schwächt sich Europa selbst"
12.1.19 10:58
215
RE: Nowotny:
12.1.19 11:57
216
      RE: Nowotny:
12.1.19 21:21
217
“How much of US recession risk is priced in?”
14.1.19 16:48
218
Global equity markets continued their recovery
20.1.19 11:55
219
2019
21.1.19 10:29
220
Poor Earnings Season May Not Stop a Market Rally, JPMor...
21.1.19 12:54
221
Chilling Davos: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and ...
24.1.19 14:51
222
Draghi glaubt nicht mehr an Zinserhöhung in seiner Amts...
24.1.19 21:22
223
dramatic increase in the supply of risk-free assets
27.1.19 18:48
224
Was macht die Fed
28.1.19 06:23
225
Global equity markets showed resilience this week
28.1.19 06:26
226
      In the US, buyback activity has been very strong
28.1.19 06:39
227
RBI-Chefanalyst erwartet im ersten Halbjahr Börsenaufsc...
28.1.19 11:34
228
Congratulations, Market. The Fed Is Officially at Your ...
30.1.19 21:48
229
Global Economy: Wind Chill Factors Abating
03.2.19 15:15
230
JPMorgan Says 2020 ‘Might Not Be Year to Think About Re...
03.2.19 16:25
231
The global economy is at the crossroads
08.2.19 15:03
232
January risk rally is not a dead cat bounce
10.2.19 22:15
233
Small- and mid caps outperformen
17.2.19 15:34
234
Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
17.2.19 22:33
235
      RE: Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
18.2.19 16:08
236
      RE: Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
18.2.19 16:26
237
Übersicht über die laufenden Überprüfungsverfahren nach...interessant
18.2.19 06:14
238
Global equity markets ended yet another week in the gre...
18.2.19 16:31
239
Raiffeisen-Experten - Brexit trifft vor allem britische...
21.2.19 07:40
240
Equity markets continued to advance higher this week
24.2.19 14:36
241
Fed-Chef plädiert für "geduldiges" Vorgehen bei Zinserh...
26.2.19 23:34
242
As trade tensions eased, global equity markets continue...
03.3.19 17:23
243
Against our expectations, the ECB adjusted its forward ...
08.3.19 06:19
244
RE: Against our expectations, the ECB adjusted its forw...
08.3.19 06:24
245
Global equities were lower this week on renewed global ...
10.3.19 17:12
246
Spring in Sight?
12.3.19 14:34
247
How to fix European banking … and why it matters
15.3.19 11:07
248
Europe Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside
17.3.19 11:58
249
Our global equity strategists remain constructive for s...
17.3.19 15:33
250
Our Global Equity strategists have argued that for the ...
24.3.19 16:55
251
Current Inversion
27.3.19 11:48
252
RE: Current Inversion
27.3.19 13:45
253
RBI-Ökonomen bleiben trotz Brexit-Chaos vorerst optimis...
29.3.19 14:01
254
use dips as an opportunity to add further
31.3.19 12:58
255
doppelt
31.3.19 12:59
256
"Erst wenn der Arbeitsmarkt leergefegt ist, beginnen Lö...
01.4.19 09:22
257
RE:
01.4.19 16:13
258
Our economists have made upward forecast revisions
07.4.19 13:47
259
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive on th...
07.4.19 13:54
260
      RE: Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive o...
07.4.19 14:16
261
JPMorgan Says Stock Traders Are Looking at the Wrong Yi...
08.4.19 15:24
262
ATX vs. Europa
12.4.19 12:21
263
Our Global Equity strategists continue to believe that ...
14.4.19 14:59
264
This will probably be the most upbeat note you will rea...
15.4.19 12:22
265
Brezinschek: Börsenaufschwung geht weiter, USA dynamisc...
26.4.19 06:06
266
How high is equity supply?
05.5.19 16:22
267
any weakness remains a buying opportunity
05.5.19 16:39
268
It’s Time to Look More Carefully at “Monetary Policy 3 ...
06.5.19 13:18
269
The growth-policy trade-off remains positive for stocks
13.5.19 10:43
270
Whitney Tilson Taking $10K Bets That Elon Musk Is Full ...
15.5.19 21:25
271
a risk factor I hadn't considered
16.5.19 20:12
272
RE: a risk factor I hadn't considered
17.5.19 10:24
273
Trump Collar
17.5.19 14:16
274
EU profitiert von US vs, China?
17.5.19 14:21
275
      RE: EU profitiert von US vs, China?
17.5.19 15:14
276
Trade war heat is on
17.5.19 15:28
277
Global equity markets showed some stabilisation this we...
19.5.19 17:53
278
Neuwahl - Erste Group sieht vorerst keine Reaktion an F...
20.5.19 15:20
279
Trump’s Huawei Attack Is a Serious Mistake
20.5.19 15:33
280
Global equity markets struggled again this week
02.6.19 18:05
281
USA-Chinainteressant
04.6.19 23:21
282
RE: USA-Chinagut analysiert
05.6.19 10:16
283
      RE: USA-China
05.6.19 10:22
284
Margin of Safety
05.6.19 11:19
285
Draghi hat für jeden was
06.6.19 21:39
286
RE: Draghi hat für jeden was
07.6.19 05:39
287
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
07.6.19 11:28
288
The inversion at the front end of the curve used to be ...
09.6.19 14:54
289
Despite negative headlines on trade
10.6.19 12:18
290
European banks: TLTRO III
11.6.19 15:02
291
Niedrige Zinsen als „neue Normalität“
12.6.19 10:36
292
Blackrock: Österreich bleibt wegen Osteuropa-Nähe attra...
14.6.19 08:08
293
Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive on st...
16.6.19 14:24
294
Fed remains unchanged on rates, pledges to 'sustain the...
19.6.19 20:58
295
Yesterday the FOMC lowered their estimate of the long-r...
20.6.19 16:03
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Our Global Equity strategists keep their bullish equity...
23.6.19 18:10
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The global outlook has deteriorated over the last month...
25.6.19 15:34
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Stimmung der Anleger auf Elfjahrestief
25.6.19 15:59
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If there is a truce in the trade war
28.6.19 16:34
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After making fresh new highs last week, global equity m...
30.6.19 18:14
301
Commerzbank Now Predicts ECB to Cut Deposit Rate 20 Bps...
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RCB erwartet kräftige Zinssenkungen von EZB und Fed
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Globale Aktien sind derzeit moderat bewertet
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Börsen waren heuer schon auf Rekordkurs - Noch etwas Lu...
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Jerome Powells Signale sind auffällig
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Fed-Chef Powell für "etwas mehr konjunkturfördernde Gel...
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600 Mrd. Unternehmensanleihen mit negativen Zinsen
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Global equities are holding near all-time highs
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Aktienrückkäufe
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Heiko Thieme: „Wir sind näher an einem Abschwung, als ....
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Buybacks and the investor
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S&P500 made a new all-time high this week
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JPM US strategists raised their S&P 500 12-month price ...
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Euro Capital Flows
25.7.19 06:13
315
RE: Euro Capital Flowsgut analysiert
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      RE: Euro Capital Flows
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      RE: Euro Capital Flows
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RBI: Erwarten eine EZB-Zinssenkung erst im September
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25% of all sovereign and corporate bonds outstanding gl...
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RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Probleme n...
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RE: RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Proble...
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ex-US 43% mit Negativzinsen
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Fed cuts rates for first time since 2008
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pick your poison
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Kopfschmerzen für die EZB
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ECB should launch "significant and impactful" stimulus ...
16.8.19 11:01
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To assess recession risk focus on global markers
18.8.19 11:51
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Global equity markets weakened further this week
19.8.19 12:22
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Kyle Bass is in the headlines
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333
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Cyclicals and Financials leading on the upside
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11.9.19 11:50
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The equity rally paused at the start of last week
23.9.19 12:42
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Recent Equity Price Action
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RE: Recent Equity Price Action
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ur Global Equity Strategists have had a longstanding pr...
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Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerkenswe...
04.11.19 09:25
350
      RE: Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerke...
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Increasing risk-on
08.11.19 11:19
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Renditen steigen
08.11.19 12:23
353

... vor baldigem Börsencrash.

Jeremy Grantham, Mitgründer und Chefstratege der Investmentfirma GMO (Grantham, May & van Otterloo), sagte bereits die Börsencrashs im Jahr 2000 und 2008 voraus ...

weiter: http://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/Investorenlegende-warnt-Anleger-vor-baldigem-Bo ersencrash-1012656691

  

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>... vor baldigem Börsencrash.
>
>Jeremy Grantham, Mitgründer und Chefstratege der
>Investmentfirma GMO (Grantham, May & van Otterloo), sagte
>bereits die Börsencrashs im Jahr 2000 und 2008 voraus ...
>
>weiter:
>http://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/Investorenlegende-warnt-Anleger-vor-baldigem-Bo ersencrash-1012656691

mMn prophezeien zu viele den Crash -> als wird er (noch) nicht so bald kommen - aber wer weiß. Statistisch gesehen wäre er überfällig

  

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>mMn prophezeien zu viele den Crash -> als wird er (noch)
>nicht so bald kommen - aber wer weiß. Statistisch gesehen wäre
>er überfällig

Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern können mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn die führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die Bewertungen so abgehoben sind. Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist der asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie Wolkenkratzer errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä). Da kann böse was platzen.

  

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>Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern können
>mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn die
>führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die
>Bewertungen so abgehoben sind. Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist der
>asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie Wolkenkratzer
>errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung
>vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä). Da
>kann böse was platzen.

Quelle? Dergleichen habe ich noch nirgends gelesen?

  

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>Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist
>der
>>asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie
>Wolkenkratzer
>>errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung
>>vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä).
>Da
>>kann böse was platzen.
>
>Quelle? Dergleichen habe ich noch nirgends gelesen?

Projektleiter einer ausführenden Firma für derartige Lösungen für die Haustechnik...

  

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>
>>Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern
>können
>>mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn
>die
>>führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die

Die Zeitleiste ist aber idR eine andere.

Zuerst fällt der Markt und die Bad News kommen später.

  

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>Die Zeitleiste ist aber idR eine andere.
>
>Zuerst fällt der Markt und die Bad News kommen später.


Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad News ausbleiben.

  

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>Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad News
>ausbleiben.

War da irgendwas nach Börsenschluß? Der VIX hat sich in der letzten Stunde ungefähr verdoppelt.

  

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Warum? Es war ein regelrecht frenetischer Start in die neue Woche. Bei fast nicht existentem Nachrichtenflow wurden die Märkte während einer eher unbedeutenden Rede von Trump in Ohio so dermaßen schnell abverkauft, dass die Übertragung praktisch auf allen Kanälen abgebrochen wurde, um die entsprechenden Charts einzublenden. Der Dow Jones verlor Intraday über 1.500 Punkte und stellte damit einen neuen Rekord für die Geschichtsbücher auf. Zwar versuchten sich die Märkte an einem zunächst erfolgreichen Rebound, kamen aber gegen Schluss wieder unter massiven Druck, der auch im nachbörslichen Handel zunächst abflauen wollte. Zur Minute steht der S&P 500-Future 1,15 % im Minus, der Nikkei-Future verliert aktuell fast acht Prozent. Weitere herausragender Akteure waren am Montag der VIX, welcher sich teilweise mehr als verdoppelte, und die Rendite für 10-jährigen Anleihen, die heute über 14 Punkte verlieren. Ein eindeutiger Auslöser für den Crash lässt sich nicht lokalisieren, aber auf den massiv im Risiko stehenden Vola-Trade (implizit und explizit) wurde in den letzten Tagen immer wieder hingewiesen.
netter tag wird das morgen keiner!

  

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War nur eine Frage der Zeit, wenn man sich anschaut, wie die Aktien die letzten Wochen gelaufen sind.

Schwer zu sagen, ob es das schon war oder ob es nochmal runtergeht. Nach einem so starken Bullenlauf könnte der Abverkauf schon noch länger dauern, ich warte daher noch mit der Einkaufstour.

  

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>>Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad
>News
>>ausbleiben.
>
>War da irgendwas nach Börsenschluß? Der VIX hat sich in der
>letzten Stunde ungefähr verdoppelt.

Nein da war nix. Ich glaub da haben sich nur ein paar Amis ein wenig angeschissen weil sie mal Kurs/Buchwert, KGV nachgerechnet haben und dabei die steigende Inflation gesehen haben, begleitet von der Drohung der ECB die Zinsen zu erhöhen.

Dabei sollte die Steuersenkungen zumindest dieses und nächstes Quartal zu überproportionalem Gewinnwachstum führen. Wenn keiner eine Bombe wirft, wird der Großteil der Unternehmen auch weiter solide Zahlen liefern.

  

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Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?

Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus, während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.

Ist jetzt der ETF falsch gepreist (Abgabedruck), oder haben die irgendwie ihr Vermögen in den Sand gesetzt?


*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF


PS: Ich beobachte nicht nur, ich habe in der letzten Stunde massiv gekauft

  

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>Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?
>
>Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus,
>während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte
>sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.
>

ISIN?

  

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>ISIN?
>
>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>
>
>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$ gefallen.
>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.

Er macht eh genau was er soll:

Does not track the performance of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and can be expected to perform very differently from the VIX.

correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.



  

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>correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of
>the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.

Ich hätte das so verstanden, daß sich der ETF bei einer Verdopplung des VIX halbieren würde.

Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg 100% an Wert verliert?

  

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>>correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance
>of
>>the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.
>
>Ich hätte das so verstanden, daß sich der ETF bei einer
>Verdopplung des VIX halbieren würde.
>
>Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg 100%
>an Wert verliert?


Ich hätte das als letzteres verstanden.

  

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>>Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg
>100%
>>an Wert verliert?
>
>
>Ich hätte das als letzteres verstanden.


Das ist dann natürlich nicht ideal. Bisher war das immer egal, weil ob das Ding bei einer 10%-Bewegung sich um 9% oder um 11% bewegt, fällt nicht weiter auf. Aber ob 50% oder 100% Verlust, das ist nicht ganz wurscht.

  

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>>ISIN?
>>
>>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>>
>>
>>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$ gefallen.
>>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.
>
>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummet s-80-percent.html
>

Eine gute grundlegende Erklärung der Funktionsweise
https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/08/how-does-svxy-work/

Wenn man sich den Newsflow zu den inversen VIX Produkten ansieht, dann dürfte es einige erwischt haben

  

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Thanks for pointing out the fine print on page of 197 of the XIV prospectus – the inverse short-VIX ETN that has zeroed so many holders: “The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero. If you hold your ETNs as a long term investment, it is likely you will lose all or a substantial portion of your investment." So I guess that’s CS’s litigation worries covered.


>>>ISIN?
>>>
>>>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>>>
>>>
>>>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$
>gefallen.
>>>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.
>>
>>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummet s-80-percent.html
>>
>
>Eine gute grundlegende Erklärung der Funktionsweise
>https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/08/how-does-svxy-work/
>
>Wenn man sich den Newsflow zu den inversen VIX Produkten
>ansieht, dann dürfte es einige erwischt haben



  

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Diese Meldung hatte es durchaus in sich: Die Credit Suisse nutzt einen Passus in den Emissionsbedingungen und zieht ein Volatilitätsproddukt vom Markt zurück - hier die Mitteilung.


Dabei handelt es sich um den Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (ISIN US22542D7957), den die Bank 2010 aufgelegt hatte und an dem sie etwa ein Drittel hält. Wer ein solches Produkt besitzt wettet darauf, dass die Volatilität im Volatilitätsindex VIX der CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) auf den S&P-500-Index niedrig bleibt. Der VIX misst genau diese Volatilität - und am letzten Montagabend stieg dieser so stark wie noch nie. Schlecht für die Besitzer dieses Wertpapiers, deren Wert sich mit einem Minus von über 90 Prozent nahezu in Luft auflöste. Ähnlich erging es dem ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) (US74347W6277), der mit der steigenden Volatilität mehr als 80 Prozent verlor.

Nun hat die CS entschieden, das verlustträchtige Papier vorzeitig zurückzukaufen, der Handel soll per 20. Februar eingestellt werden - Anleger erhalten eine entsprechende Barvergütung und die Credit Suisse kündigt an, keine weiteren des XIV-ETNs mehr zu emittieren.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/die-hohe-volatilitaet-fordert-ihre-opfer-269 8

  

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>Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?
>
>Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus,
>während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte
>sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.
>
>Ist jetzt der ETF falsch gepreist (Abgabedruck), oder haben
>die irgendwie ihr Vermögen in den Sand gesetzt?
>
>
>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF

Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

  

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>>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF
>
>Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
>https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

Handel jetzt wieder aufgenommen. Wider Erwarten kein Totalschaden, aber ziemlich zerbröselt; -90% gegenüber Freitag, Kurs knapp über 11.

  

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>>>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF
>>
>>Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
>>https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts
>
>Handel jetzt wieder aufgenommen. Wider Erwarten kein
>Totalschaden, aber ziemlich zerbröselt; -90% gegenüber
>Freitag, Kurs knapp über 11.

Ich denke, dass diese VIX Geschichte ein wesentlicher Treiber für die Schwankungen der letzten Tage war.

Bin urlaubsbedingt nur oberflächlich dabei, aber was aufgefallen ist:

- Erschreckend wie schnell die Liq. weg war, und dies bei einem mittelmäßigen Rums. Meilenweite Spreads.

- Wie immer wurden die Beta Stocks zuerst abverkauft

- Denke nicht, dass dies schon die Trendwende war. Aber auffallend ist, dass die "Profis" auf allen Kanälen die "buy the dip" Parole ausgeben.

D.h. für mich den Trend konservativ umzuschichten, werde ich fortsetzten. Meine 3 Käufe von heute werde ich entsprechend bald wieder abstoßen.

  

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1) The significant re-pricing of inflation expectations over the past month shows that the market has been worrying more and more about an overheating of the economy. That is why rates have moved higher. And these fears culminated on Friday with wage inflation hitting a post-crisis high. And it is the threat of higher inflation and higher rates that is worrying the stock market because higher wages means lower profit margins and higher inflation means faster rate hikes from the Fed as the FOMC tries to slow down the economy and ultimately the revenue growth of S&P500 companies.

2) The market does not expect the ongoing stock market correction will have any meaningful negative impact on the real economy; if the market expected the correction to trigger a recession, then inflation expectations would also have crashed yesterday.

Deutsche Bank

  

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A healthy pullback


After a stellar 2017 and an even stronger January, risk assets have undergone a sharp pullback in the last week. Initially triggered by higher rates as markets repriced inflation expectations higher, the episode evolved into a technical spout of volatility exacerbated by programmatic strategies.

The pullback is healthy, after a highly unusual stretch of market tranquility. For instance, the S&P 500 had not had a 3% pullback in over 300 trading days; market positioning had become stretched. However, the moves now appear overdone. We are now well past the typical 3-5% pullback, and the sell-off has gone beyond that during 2013’s Taper Tantrum which was triggered by a much sharper rise in rates.

Fundamentals remain supportive of risk assets. The robust, broad-based global expansion continues and inflation will at last accelerate in 2018. We expect these trends to evolve steadily enough for central banks to tighten monetary policy gradually as planned. Strong growth and rising but not high rates should continue to support corporate earnings and equity valuations even as bond yields steadily rise.

Still, we expect market turbulence to return this year. Pullbacks and volatility will become more common as investors adjust to rising interest rates and capital is allocated out of risk assets and into higher-yielding fixed income. More volatility should not derail the underlying economic expansion or fundamentally dent risk assets, but it will make markets more bumpy and less predictable.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Fed implications of the employment report

What is important to understand is that the higher wage number is not just a one-off event. Instead, it is a continuation of the trends we have seen in recent years both in employer labor costs and take-home pay for workers.

An overheating labor market is not good news for the Fed. With wages trending higher, the FOMC needs to raise rates further to cool down the economy and cool down companies’ hiring and capex plans and ultimately revenue growth. And central banks, including the Fed, have a bad history of being able to gradually cool down the economy. Instead of a soft landing, it almost always results in a hard landing, i.e. a recession. For now, rates will go up by a lot more before the tightening in financial conditions ultimately results in a recession and lower rates, most likely in 2020.

Deutsche Bank

  

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We believe that the fundamental drivers of the equity market uptrend are still intact for the next 1-2 months, which is the investment horizon of our model portfolio. These drivers are underpinned by still low real yields, robust global growth, profit margin expansion due to US tax reform and increased US share buyback activity due to repatriation. Therefore, with an investment horizon of 1-2 months, we see the recent 7% dip in global equities as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to reduce equity risk in our portfolio.

JPMorgan

  

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Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat


Im Jänner 2018 wurde der Raiffeisen-Europa-Aktien zum Fonds des Monats gekürt. Fondsmanager Herbert Perus stellt sich Fragen zu Bewertungs- und Timing-Aspekten beim Value-Investing und zum österreichischen Aktienmarkt.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/wienerberger-der-ideale-uebernahmekandidat-2 440


  

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Our analysis suggests that both CTAs and Risk Parity funds have been at the core of the recent correction. Risk Parity funds have underperformed a hypothetical benchmark by 3.7% since the start of the equity market correction, an even bigger underperformance than that seen during the Fed 2013 taper tantrum. CTAs lost 6.9% in four days from Feb 1st to Feb 7th. Pure trend following CTAs did even worse, losing 9.2% during these four days. These negative 4-day returns are unprecedented, pointing to severe position unwinding. This severe CTA unwinding is consistent with the almost universal collapse of the open interest of futures contracts over the past week, with the exception of the 10y UST futures contract. In our mind, the position unwinding from both CTAs and Risk Parity funds has been so severe that any further position unwinding by these investors should be limited from here, especially if stop losses have been triggered already.This, combined with the low equity exposures of Discretionary Macro and Equity Long/Short hedge funds, leaves retail investors as the main residual risk for equity markets going forward. US equity ETFs, which have been at the epicenter of the fund outflows over the past week, lost $25bn so far. This means that more than half of the $40bn that had entered US equity ETFs in January has been withdrawn already. So again, the picture we are getting in the US equity ETF space is one of advanced rather than early stage de-risking.Momentum retreats from extremes in equities, FX and commodities, but not rates.Retail investors are pouring money again into short VIX ETFs undeterred by recent VIX product turmoil.

JPMorgan

  

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Nowotny begrüßt "Aufwecksignal" an den Börsen
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anheben, sagt OeNB-Gouverneur Ewald Nowotny.

Anders als in den USA werde es in Europa noch etwas dauern, bis der Leitzins wieder angehoben werde, so Nowotny, der auch Mitglied des EZB-Rates ist. Er schloss aus, dass die Leitzinsen in Europa noch heuer angehoben werden. Es fehle noch an der passenden Inflationsrate von rund zwei Prozent in der Eurozone. Diese liegt bei 1,4 Prozent. „Daher ist die EZB derzeit noch auf der vorsichtigen Seite“, sagte der OeNB-Gouverneur. Bei Zinsen von länger laufenden Staatsanleihen sehe man aber bereits jetzt, dass die Zinsen anziehen würden.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5369943/Nowotny-begruesst-Aufwecksignal-a n-den-Boersen

  

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These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage

A slice of quantitative easing that's completely unsuited for public consumption.

With the economic recovery well under way in Europe the European Central Bank has cut its government bond purchases by two-thirds. Fair enough. However, it is not reining in its involvement in company debt. The securities now comprise about 20 percent of monthly purchases, up from 7 percent at the start of the program in mid-2016. The total amount could top 200 billion euros ($244 billion) before quantitative easing ends.

If it had any self-knowledge the ECB should be aware of the problems it's creating. The fact that, by its purchases, it has soaked up all the liquidity in the secondary market and has had to turn to the primary market should be a warning sign.

Elephant Stomp

The ECB's corporate QE buying has helped halve funding costs for high-yield borrowers

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-12/these-bonds-should-make-ecb-hawks-ap oplectic-with-rage

  

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Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says Buy Now

The Morgan Stanley strategist who predicted volatility would ramp up in 2018 says the damage has been done and it’s time to buy stocks.

Michael Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said the “volatility shock” that hit equity markets last week has pushed valuations down to attractive levels, with the S&P 500 Index trading at just 16 times forward 12-month earnings per share.

This is a “level we believe is too cheap” given that 10-year Treasury yields remain below 3 percent, Wilson said in a note to clients Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicte d-volatility-says-buy-now


  

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Financial markets are all about stories. Over the past six weeks, the enormous US fiscal expansion has created two new stories, which both argue for higher US rates. First, doing a fiscal expansion when the unemployment rate is very low at 4.1% runs the risk of overheating the economy and thereby creating wage inflation and consumer price inflation. Second, unfinanced tax cuts mean more Treasury issuance, which now also includes last Friday’s increase in budget caps – the so-called 2018 Budget Act – which will add another $300bn to the deficit.

So the question for investors is no longer simply “When will we see inflation in the United States?”. The additional question is “With a doubling in the amount of Treasuries coming to the market over the coming 18 months, who will buy US government debt, in particular in a situation where almost 50% of Treasuries are held by foreigners who see a falling dollar and the ECB ending QE?”.

The bottom line is that the upside risks to US rates are significant as a result of higher US inflation and likely weaker demand for US Treasuries.

Deutsche Bank

  

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All the President's deficits

• Most countries try to avoid material fiscal easing when the economy is near full employment, but the US has just done so twice in two months. JPM has upgraded its US growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019; lowered its unemployment rate target to a 50-yr low (3.2% in 2019); and raised its deficit projection to the highest in 50 years (5.4%) outside of the Global Financial Crisis. Our economist’s call for four Fed hikes in 2018 and 2019 is unchanged.
• Markets seem only slightly unnerved by US fiscal policy. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens have been trending higher since December, but these moves might have occurred anyway due to the economy’s momentum entering 2018 and the tightening of oil markets.
• Evidence of fiscal anxiety is more circumstantial and comes in the form of the dollar’s decoupling from cross-country rate differentials, gold’s decoupling from US real interest rates and a reversal of the usually negative stock/bond price correlation.

JPMorgan

  

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Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen

Die Rendite von 10jährigen US-Treasuries wird in den kommenden sechs Monaten auf 3,5 Prozent steigen, ist Goldman Sachs AM überzeugt - und hält das für keine sehr mutige Prognose.

Und rechnet heuer mit vier Zinserhöhungen - gegenüber dem Marktkonsens von drei. Aktuell rentieren die Anleihen bei 2,82 Prozent. Bei einer Duration von aktuell 8,7 würde das einem Kursverlust von 5,8 Prozent entsprechen - bei einem Zinskupon von 2,75 Prozent.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/schwere-zeiten-fuer-bonds-im-kommen-2992

  

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Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces

Bridgewater could be overlooking the full picture if it's relying solely on European economic data.

Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio is famously enigmatic, but his latest wager may be the most puzzling yet.


Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that the fund Dalio founded, Bridgewater Associates, has made a $22 billion bet that many of Europe's biggest companies in the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 Index are poised to decline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-16/ray-dalio-s-short-puzzle-for-bridgew ater-is-missing-some-pieces

  

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Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn

There's a new reason to dislike stock buybacks: They contributed to last week's market downturn.

Some market watchers are adding corporate share repurchases to the list of reasons for last week's turmoil, which already included rising interest rates, higher inflation, growing government debt, volatility-linked investment funds and Washington instability. More significantly, those pointing the finger at buybacks say continued corporate stock purchases -- which, unlike some of those volatility funds, survived the brief market downturn -- will make the next one far worse.

Here's the logic: Companies over the past decade or so have significantly increased buybacks to the point where they are now collectively the largest single buyer of stocks. Some have called the market self-cannibalizing. Equity shrink is the nicer way to say that.

Corporations are not particularly price sensitive -- buybacks tend to rise with the market -- but they do try over short periods to buy at the lowest average price. So in a long bull market, like the one we are in now, corporations tend to step in to buy whenever there is a dip, which is what happened last week. Goldman Sachs, for one, said that its unit that executes share buybacks received a surge of orders last week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-16/add-stock-buybacks-to-the-causes-of- the-market-downturn

  

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Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit Rise

“Federal fiscal policy is entering uncharted territory,” Goldman analysts including Alec Phillips in Washington wrote in a Feb. 18 note to clients. “In the past, as the economy strengthens and the debt burden increases, Congress has responded by raising taxes and cutting spending. This time around, the opposite has occurred.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/goldman-sees-u-s-interest-cost-surge-o n-rising-yields-deficit

  

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We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each in 2018 and 2019, and that it will upgrade its rate guidance at Powell’s first FOMC press conference as Chair on March 21st, given inflation’s recent momentum. Note that this Fed view isn't based on an aggressive inflation forecast. Our economists see core PCE only reaching 2% this year and 2.3% in 2019. The view simply recognizes the Fed’s reaction function because it is serious about preventing a material overshoot of its target.

JPMorgan

  

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The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages with 74% and 97% of companies having reported in US and Japan respectively, and 50% in Europe. Q4 EPS is up 15-17% year-on-year in all three regions, the best since Q1 2017. Sales growth is in line with the previous quarters, at around 8%, which implies that profit margins expanded further in Q4. 80% of SPX companies beat earnings estimates, with EPS up +15%. 77% of the companies beat on top line, with sales up 8%. 54% of SXXP companies beat EPS estimates, delivering EPS growth of +17%. Similar to the US, the strength in earnings mainly comes from Cyclicals and Financials, while results are softer for Defensives.

JPMorgan

  

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Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real Deal

The U.S. stock market only had a taste of the potential damage from higher bond yields earlier this year, with the biggest test yet to come, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Appetizer, not the main course,” is how the bank’s strategists led by London-based Andrew Sheets described the correction of late January to early February. Although higher bond yields proved tough for equity investors to digest, the key metric of inflation-adjusted yields didn’t break out of their range for the past five years, they said in a note Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/morgan-stanley-says-stock-slide-was-ju st-appetizer-for-real-deal

  

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BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges Earnings

BlackRock Inc. turned bullish on U.S. stocks as the world’s largest money manager says impending fiscal stimulus will boost already strong momentum for earnings growth.

Valuations are now slightly more attractive after the recent market declines, helping inform its decision to raise U.S. equities to overweight from neutral, according to global chief investment strategist Richard Turnill at BlackRock, which oversees about $6 trillion in assets.

“Economic strength was already changing the tone of earnings momentum but U.S. tax cuts and government spending plans lit a fire under the trend,” he wrote in a note. “Upward revisions are solid globally, but the U.S. strength is unmatched.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/blackrock-says-buy-u-s-stocks-as-tax-p lan-supercharges-earnings

  

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U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', Goldman Sachs says

The recent run of U.S. economic data is likely as good as it gets, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Writing in a note to clients on Thursday about the firm’s theme that we’re seeing “peak sentiment” in the U.S. economy, strategists James Weldon and Charles Himmelberg note that while sentiment remains near post-election highs, the risk that this trend ends is rising.

“Last year we cautioned that the downside risks to ‘peak sentiment’ were riding on macro data and policy,” Weldon and Himmelberg write.

“One year on, sentiment is higher, but now the macro data are likely ‘as good as it gets’ and the administration has already passed an unprecedented amount of late-cycle fiscal stimulus. In our base case, we would expect this sentiment plateau to extend further, but the risks to investor sentiment appear more skewed to the downside than they were a year ago.”

A divergence between the hopes and realities of economic growth, in other words, will not hold over the long term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-s-economic-data-right-now-good-gets-goldman-sachs-says-1 54035530.html

  

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The US economics team published an update to DB’s analysis that looks at the parallels between the current period and the 1960s in the US. Similar to today, inflation was subdued for a protracted period during the first half of the 1960s even as the unemployment rate fell sharply. Inflation then jumped in 1966. Recent developments – most importantly a replay of the 1960s fiscal expansion – have increased the similarities with the 1960s episode. Their updated analysis suggests that while we are unlikely to see a spike in inflation as large as the 1960s, the risks around DB’s inflation view are likely titled to the upside. As such, we would not downplay the possibility that core inflation hits 2.5% or above in the coming years, exceeding the last cycle’s peak and rising to the highest level since the early 1990s.

Deutsche Bank

  

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QE ending

This is the battle in financial markets at the moment. The economic and earnings data are still strong pointing to higher Treasury yields, narrow credit spreads, and higher equities. But ending easy money and more signs of inflation should raise Treasury yields, widen IG credit spreads, lower equities, and boost VIX. So far, stocks and credit are trading well, but with peak QE, peak fiscal boost, and peak disinflation we are priced to perfection, in particular as Treasury yields continue to rise on the back of higher US inflation and the unsustainable US fiscal situation. Tensions are building, including in US Treasury auctions, Libor-OIS, and repo markets, and we will have a problem once the grind higher in Treasury yields begins to have a negative impact on consumer spending and capex. Put differently, we better not have a slowdown in the economic data because the conclusion from yesterday’s conference is that once the next recession comes central banks will be out of ammunition, and in that situation, we will go back to the zero lower bound with lower long rates, wider IG credit spreads, lower equities, and higher VIX.

Deutsche Bank  

  

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Two weeks ago, volatility hit markets, with the Dow dropping 1,000 points in a single day, twice. Stock prices have climbed back a bit. But some Wall Street veterans warn that there could be more volatility ahead.

Steve Schwarzman, the CEO of Blackstone (BX), isn’t all that concerned about the recent market moves because he believes the market has been vulnerable to corrections.

“If the developed world’s economies are going up 2.5% to 3% a year, that’s not that much. It’s not terrible, but you know it’s what it is. And you have performance in January of the equity markets up around 7%, something like that,” Schwarzman told Yahoo Finance. ” If you had that same performance for twelve months at roughly 7%, I mean you’re you’ve got 80% performance in a year in an economy growing 2.5% to 3% in the developed world does that make any sense? No.”

In other words, the stock market look like it’s gotten way ahead of the economy. And so, you can expect some down moves along the way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/steve-schwarzman-stock-markets-performance-doesnt-make-sen se-look-economy-191423240.html

  

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Equities: Near-term activity data may be peaking, but earnings growth hasn’t and US stock buybacks are running at a record pace.

JPMorgan

  

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Has the marginal equity buyer gone?


• The erratic behavior of retail investors this past week and the spreading of equity ETF outflows out to non-US equities casts doubt on the idea that retail investors will serve as the marginal buyer of equities in the current conjuncture - especially after buying an unprecedented $100bn of equity ETFs in only one month during January.
• The potential withdrawal of retail investors as the marginal buyer of equities could create clear downside risk for equity markets for the near term, especially if one takes into account the deterioration in equity market liquidity.
• This is not only because institutional investors appear to be unwilling to become the marginal buyer against a backdrop of elevated volatility, low market liquidity and disappointing economic releases.
• But also because the other big incremental buyer of equities we envisage for this year, i.e. share buybacks, might take some time to materialize.

JPMorgan

  

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We estimate that losses on the Steinhoff bond that the ECB/Eurosystem sold, after it plunged by half, were just over 0.05% of its corporate holdings and have therefore been comfortably absorbed by the returns on the overall CSPP portfolio. Given diversification and portfolio approach to returns, this event as expected did not deter the ECB from continuing to make substantial purchases of corporate bonds. As we have argued in the past, although it is not the ECB's goal, buying corporate rather than sovereign bonds is highly likely to increase the P&L of the QE.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Our macro views remain constructive: growth momentum is still robust and above-trend (despite some moderation), inflation is normalizing but unlikely to see a dramatic uptick, and the Fed will continue to tighten policy but remain accommodative. Without a clear threat yet to end this cycle, our asset allocation remains pro-cyclical and OW equities vs broad fixed income.

Narrative of recent selloff: imminent concerns about inflation, rates, trade wars, and a growth downshift are overblown, in our view. Although we recognize long-term risks stemming from market illiquidity and volatility, we believe that the equity OW should be underpinned near-term by strong corporate and macro fundamentals, stabilizations of long-dated UST yields, and increased inflows into equities. Positioning and valuation also look more attractive following the equities technical sell-off in early February.

Fiscal deficits, any further upside inflation surprises, and market repricing of Fed expectations continue to be a downside risk for fixed income. However, given short duration positioning is still extreme and significant repricing has taken place, we stay small UW in bonds. We are neutral on credit spreads as they remain supported by solid credit fundamentals and are not yet threatened by a restrictive Fed due to high leverage.

JPMorgan

  

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The upshot of our economic analysis is that the tariff measures announced thus far are unlikely to have a material impact on our global macro outlook, even if the affected countries would take proportional counter-measures in response. The range of estimates we come up with falls well within the margin of error for global growth forecasts. This does not rule out that the impact might be felt more acutely in the directly and indirectly affected sectors and in countries that are heavily specialised in the affected sectors. And while we clearly see a risk of a regime shift, there are a number of reasons why we are not overly worried about the macro impact at this stage.

First, thus far only a limited range of products have been subjected to protectionist measures. The products covered in the report drafted by the US Department of Commerce under Section 232 account of 2% of US imports (or 0.2% of US GDP). Globally, these products have a slightly more prominent role and trade also accounts for a larger part of economic activity than in the US. We would estimate the share to be roughly 0.9% of global GDP. So, even if you assume that demand drops materially due to the tariffs, it is difficult to get an impact of more than 0.3pp of GDP. As steel and aluminium are intermediate products, there will likely be knock-on effects along the production chain. In the case of Germany, a heavy user of both base materials in its industry, we estimate these indirect effects to be roughly half the size of the direct impact. Hence, unless the tariffs are broadened very materially, the current trade tensions are unlikely to derail the global macro outlook.

Second, both sectors are subject to long-standing trade tensions due to overcapacity globally, especially in the steel sector. Tariffs have been applied in these sectors on and off for decades. History offers two potential parallels on how the rest of the world might react. In the 1980s, Japan agreed to so-called Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) on its car industry in response to President Reagan’s protectionist push. In the early 2000s, by contrast, when President Bush imposed steel tariffs, the EU responded with highly targeted counter-measures. President Bush lifted the steel tariffs after 21 months, having bought the sector time to adjust, before the European levies were implemented. Looking at the list drawn up by the European Commission over the last few weeks, it seems that this is how Europe would likely respond at the current juncture as well. In our view, a WTO-compatible response does not necessarily imply escalation. Against the historical backdrop, the measures announced thus far and the counter-measures considered seem less of a regime shift than the rhetoric would suggest.

Third, away from the US (and possibly Brexit), further trade liberalisation is still continuing. Since President Trump came to power, a number of important new trade agreements were negotiated, signed or ratified. These agreements include the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Mexico and CETA, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada, among others. At the same time, China is pushing ahead with its One Belt One Road initiative, which over time should also open up to new trade channels. True, the big gains in trade liberalisation triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union, China’s accession to the WTO and a sharp drop in transport and communication costs likely lie behind us now. But this does not mean that there is no further trade integration in the future.

All in all, the trade policy measures proposed thus far are unlikely to change our global macro outlook. Several factors could change this benign assessment. For starters, if fears of escalating trade tensions impact financial markets noticeably, material movements in equity markets and/or exchange rates could create fresh forecast risks. According to Hans Redeker, who heads our FX strategy research, US trade protectionism reinforces the current US dollar weakness – a development that is not helping to rebalance the transatlantic economy. Instead, a weaker USD could reinforce concerns about overheating in the US. But it could also bring into question whether the ECB will reach its inflation objective and seems to have triggered another vocal response from ECB President Draghi this past week. In addition, we have not seen all of the trade policy measures that are in the pipeline in the US. Many trade policy experts view future measures relating to intellectual property rights under Section 301, the amendment of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) and, of course, the NAFTA renegotiations as potentially more powerful.

  

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Our US Equity strategists remain positive with a 3000 S&P 500 target for year-end 2018. They see the February market selloff as entirely technical and believe focus returns to strong fundamentals as we move closer to 1Q earnings season. Companies are expected to deliver double-digit earnings growth on US tax catalyst, global synchronized growth, and weaker USD. Also, they anticipate a ramp-up in investment activity (buybacks, dividends, M&A, and capex) driven by rising profits, cash repatriation, and falling policy uncertainty. S&P 500 companies should execute a record ~$800 billion in gross share repurchases throughout this year (vs. $530b in 2017) with incremental buybacks to be funded by stronger earnings growth, tax cuts and cash repatriation. While rising long-term rates will ultimately become a negative for profits and multiples, our strategists do not see current levels as a reason to sell equities, and believe US corporates are better positioned to endure a rising rate environment than at past points in this cycle. They recommend investors to continue buying market dips and remain OW reflation-sensitive domestic sectors and UW bond-proxies.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive on the outlook for equities. They highlight that the growth policy trade-off for stocks is still exceptional, where real rates continue to be outright negative. Activity momentum has peaked, but the pace of growth is likely to remain above trend and earnings are set to continue growing. Within this, where they advise to be somewhat more cautious is on the commodity sectors, both Miners and Energy, given very stretched inventory levels.

JPMorgan

  

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Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks, though Brent gained this week after key international oil agencies (OPEC, IEA) published their monthly reports. OPEC admitted shale’s resurgence by increasing their US production growth forecasts, though excess supply obliges them to keep cartel compliance high in coming months (next OPEC meeting is Jun 22nd). By raising their US oil production growth forecasts, there is now a convergence of views between the IEA and OPEC. The IEA on the other hand increased their demand expectation for 2018 by 90k barrels per day and also increased the call-on-OPEC target, which is the amount of oil OPEC needs to produce to help balance the market. Here IEA has slowly followed in the footsteps of OPEC that has remained bullish on demand relative to IEA. This outcome is supportive for oil prices despite both agencies expecting high US liquids supply driven by shale, as we believe the US outlook is already priced into markets. The 2018 JPM forecast is for US liquids growth to run at around 1.7mn barrels per day, slightly higher the agencies expected.
• Where we differ from OPEC and IEA is that we do expect markets to remain tight in H1 on stronger demand and OPEC inadvertently tightening markets ahead of their Jun 22nd meeting. After that, we expect compliance to weaken by end of 2018 and early 2019 as demand growth slows and as the real impact of US shale growth becomes more evident. By end of the year, we currently expect oil prices to come under considerable pressure unless US liquids supply growth slows, which is definitely a risk alongside unplanned outages from Venezuela and some other geopolitically unstable oil exporters.

JPMorgan

  

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RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht zu Ende

Aktienmärkte sollten heuer noch einmal einen Schub bekommen - Zäsur zum Jahreswechsel 2019 erwartet - Abschwung sollte nur langsam erfolgen - "10 bis 15 Prozent heuer noch immer drinnen"

Zumindest im laufenden Jahr dürfte der Bullenmarkt an den internationalen Aktienmärkten noch anhalten. Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld sollte den Börsen noch einmal einen Schub geben, erwartet der Chef-Analyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek. Allerdings sollte 2018 anfälliger für Rückschläge sein. Eine Zäsur dürfte dann der Jahreswechsel 2019 markieren.
"Der Börsenzyklus ist noch nicht zu Ende", sagte Brezinschek am Montag bei einem Pressegespräch in Wien. Seit nunmehr neun Jahren befänden sich die Aktienmärkte nun schon im Aufschwung. Mit 108 Monaten dauere der aktuelle Bullenmarkt bereits doppelt so lange wie im Durchschnitt und der Anstieg falle mit 305 Prozent - gemessen am US-Aktienmarkt - doppelt so hoch aus wie im Schnitt der bisherigen Bullenmärkte. Übertroffen wurde er nur in den Jahren 1990 bis 2000. Damals endete der Bullenmarkt mit dem Platzen der Internetblase. "Das Ende von Bullenmärkten wurde immer von Unternehmensdaten und nicht etwa von Leitzinserhöhungen ausgelöst", so Brezinschek.

Die derzeitige Hochkonjunktur in der Weltwirtschaft werde praktisch von allen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften mitgetragen, deren Konjunkturindikatoren befänden sich alle nahe den historischen Höchstständen.

Da der Aufschwung in der Eurozone nur relativ langsam erfolgt sei, rechnet Brezinschek auch nur mit einem langsamen Abschwung, was ein optimistisches Bild sei. "Erst ab 2020 dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum unter das Potenzialwachstum von 1,3 Prozent fallen", so Brezinschek. Auch in den USA laufe die Konjunktur weiter rund. Mit US-Steuerreform sei bloß "Öl ins Feuer" gegossen worden. Die sehr erfreuliche wirtschaftliche Entwicklung spiegle sich auch in der global zuversichtlichen Stimmung der Unternehmen wider.

Nunmehr komme es zu Änderungen im monetären Umfeld. So baue die US-Notenbank etwa seit dem vierten Quartal 2017 ihre Bilanz ab und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) werde ihr Anleihenkaufprogramm im September auslaufen lassen. In der Folge rechnet Brezinschek ab März 2019 bis März 2020 mit vier Zinsschritten der EZB um jeweils 0,25 Prozentpunkte auf dann 1,00 Prozent.

Auf der ersten Zinstagung der amerikanischen Notenbank Fed unter ihrem neuen Chef Jerome Powell am kommenden Mittwoch erwartet sich Brezinschek Hinweise darauf, ob es in den USA heuer zu drei oder vier Zinserhöhungen kommen wird. "Eine vierte Zinserhöhung würde den Markt zwischenzeitlich belasten, weil der Markt derzeit nicht davon ausgeht", so Brezinschek.

Laut dem RBI-Chefanalysten hat es am US-Aktienmarkt in der Vergangenheit im Schnitt sieben Monate gedauert, bis es vom Hoch zu einer Rezession gekommen ist. Der Rückgang habe dabei im Schnitt 31 Prozent betragen. Demnach könnte es im ersten Quartal 2019 zu einem Einbruch kommen. "Das ist aber nicht unser Stimmungsbild", betonte Brezinschek. Sollte es andererseits erst im ersten Quartal 2020 zum Abschwung kommen, wäre laut einer anderen Analyse heuer noch eine zweistellige Performance möglich.

"10 bis 15 Prozent sind heuer immer drinnen", sagte Brezinschek. Allerdings werden die Schwankungen größer. 2019 dürften dann keine positiven Ertragsraten mehr möglich sein. Dies werde aber von den Konjunkturparametern abhängen und wie stark diese wirkten. "Ich sehe noch einmal ein Umfeld, dass einen Schub bringen kann", sagte Brezinschek.

Für die Finanzmärkte gehe derzeit das größte Risiko von einer Verschärfung des Protektionismus in Form von gegenseitigen Zollschranken aus. Das stelle eine Gefahr für den Welthandel und die Exportwirtschaft dar. "US-Präsident Donald Trump sollte das Spiel mit dem Welthandel beiseitelegen", so Brezinschek.

Ein weiterer Risikofaktor seien die geopolitischen Spannungen im Nahen Osten. Die Märkte belasten würde auch eine vierte Zinserhöhung in den USA. Für Unsicherheit sorge zudem der bevorstehende Brexit, und ob dieser hart oder weich ausfallen werde. Beschränkt werde das Wachstumspotenzial der Weltwirtschaft zudem durch den weltweiten Fachkräftemangel.

In Zahlen gefasst traut Brezinschek dem US-Aktienindex Dow Jones heuer einen Anstieg von derzeit rund 25.000 auf rund 26.000 Punkte zu. Der deutsche Aktienindex DAX könnte von aktuell 12.300 noch auf 13.000 Punkte zulegen und der Wiener ATX von aktuell 3.450 auf 3.800 Punkte steigen.

  

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ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich ein

Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland gehen im März 2018 deutlich zurück. Der Index verliert gegenüber dem Vormonat 12,7 Punkte und steht nun bei 5,1 Punkten (langfristiger Mittelwert: 23,6 Punkte). Der Anteil der Experten/-innen, die eine Verschlechterung in den kommenden sechs Monaten erwarten, steigt um 7,2 Prozent auf 12,9 Prozent.

„Die Sorge vor einem durch die USA ausgelösten globalen Handelskonflikt lässt die Experten/-innen vorsichtiger in die Zukunft blicken. Auch der starke Euro belastet die Konjunkturaussichten für die Exportnation Deutschland. In Verbindung mit der immer noch sehr guten Lageeinschätzung ist der Ausblick aber weiterhin positiv“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, Ph.D.

Die Bewertung der konjunkturellen Lage verschlechtert sich leicht um 1,6 Punkte auf 90,7 Punkte. Die Sorge um einen möglichen Handelskonflikt mit den USA belastet auch den Ausblick für die Eurozone. Der Erwartungsindikator fällt um 15,9 Punkte auf 13,4 Punkte. Auch die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage in der Eurozone geht zurück. Der entsprechende Indikator fällt um 1,5 Punkte auf 56,2 Punkte.

  

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Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to Slack

Mario Draghi’s success in reviving the euro-area economy could, ironically, delay the European Central Bank’s exit from extraordinary stimulus.

The currency bloc’s broadest economic expansion in its history is drawing workers back to the job market and spurring companies to invest to replace aging equipment. Governments -- with varying degrees of reluctance -- have even pushed some through reforms aimed at improving productivity.

The result is the 19-nation economy should now be able to grow at a faster rate than before without spurring inflation. Bloomberg Economics reckons the pace of so-called potential growth rose to 1.9 percent last year compared with 1.2 percent in 2016.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/draghi-s-success-is-double-edged-as-la bor-boom-adds-to-slack

  

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JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware Trade War

espite a harrowing week for U.S. stocks, market conditions are looking favorable heading into the second quarter, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Conditions for stability will probably come together in the second quarter, and asset allocations should remain oriented toward growth, JPMorgan strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note Friday after the S&P 500 closed down 6 percent for the week. They also suggested, however, that a potential trade war is a threat to economic growth.

"Two of four conditions for market stability have been met (tamer inflation, not-so-hawkish Federal Reserve), and the two others could align in the second quarter (stable activity data, de-escalation of trade conflict),” the strategists wrote.

Their recommended asset allocation includes being overweight equities versus bonds; long financials, industrials and oil; and selectively long on emerging markets.

While there’s now a risk premium for worse growth through bad policies, the strategists said that U.S. sanctions this year "equate to less than 0.5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product," and China’s retaliation this week has been “disproportionately mild.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-25/jpmorgan-sees-market-overcoming-stock- rout-but-beware-trade-war

  

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What perhaps stood out the most about the price action last week was that any buy the dip mentality appeared to just disappear. In fact, that has been the case for the last two weeks with the S&P closing lower than the midpoint of its intraday range every single day. That’s the longest streak since at least 1982.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Politics is playing a bigger role in influencing the markets than is typical, and I (and others) am still trying to figure out where Donald Trump is taking us, especially as it regards trade and other wars. Besides prompting me to think hard and dig deep into what’s now happening, it is leading me to delve deeper into past trade and military wars to see their effects on economies and markets.

I will pass along my findings when I complete the examination. In the meantime, I will share some of my ruminations for the little that they are worth.

Since Donald Trump sounds more willing to enter into a trade war than any president since Herbert Hoover, and since starting a trade war is like throwing rocks in the gears of the world economy, his recent moves are naturally scary to the markets.

However, thus far what he has actually done is modest and appears significantly politically motivated, so what we are seeing could be a negotiation tactic and a political move that needn’t mean a trade war is likely.

Also, as expected, the Chinese response to his move was modest, so thus far we have seen a lot of threatening without much damage, which is understandable ahead of midterm elections. If this is the negotiating that I expect, the next move will be toward some trade agreements that will look like victories for Trump, so tensions will subside and the markets will like it.

That’s the most likely scenario. I would consider that scenario to be broken if there is any new worsening in trade relations with China from here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-26/what-keeps-dalio-night-trade-war-harbinger-bigg er-conflict

  

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Hört,hört?

Donald J. Trump

Verifizierter Account

@realDonaldTrump
7 Std.vor 7 Stunden
Mehr
Trade talks going on with numerous countries that, for many years, have not treated the United States fairly. In the end, all will be happy!

  

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Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktienschwankungen

Autor: von Alois Wögerbauer Geschäftsführer 3 Banken-Generali Invest

...

„Man wird uns kennenlernen“, drohte EU-Kommissionschef Juncker in Richtung Donald Trump und kündigte Gegenmaßnahmen an. Harley-Davidsons, Whiskey und Blue-Jeans sollen mit Zöllen belegt werden. Damit war ihm die europäische Medienaufmerksamkeit gewiss. Was er vergessen hat zu erwähnen ist, dass die EU ihrerseits seit geraumer Zeit 10% Einfuhrzölle berechnet, wenn Autos aus den USA in den EU-Raum importiert werden. Laut Deutschem Ifo-Institut liegt der ungewichtete Durchschnittszoll der EU gegenüber der USA bei 5,2%, jener der USA gegenüber dem EU-Raum bei 3,5%. Soviel zur Sachlage – ohne für eine Seite Partei zu ergreifen.

...

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/einfuhrzoelle-stagflationsgefahr-und-normale -aktienschwankungen--12389

  

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• Our Global Equity Strategists believe that the risk-reward for stocks has not turned medium term negative, and would be adding at these levels. Equities have again entered oversold territory at the end of March. In contrast, bonds are close to being overbought. Positioning is less stretched – HF beta is down and the AAII Bull Bear indicator is outright negative, suggesting there is less complacency, which is a healthy development. Earnings are likely to be a tailwind: even post some stalling, global Q1 activity levels are still stronger than they were in Q4, while in contrast Q1 consensus EPS expectations (ex tax) are much more muted than they were in Q4. Finally, with Eurozone CESI not far from early 2016 lows, our strategists believe economic momentum is likely to stabilise from here. They advise adding to Equities, and look for Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US.

JPMorgan

  

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The Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remind investors that equity fundamentals are still solid and equities are still cheap vs cash or other asset classes. The hurdle for beating the Q1 reporting season is not high, in our mind. We, thus, retain a large equity OW in our model portfolio hoping that the reporting season will encourage both retail and institutional investors to resume their equity buying. We fund this OW with 5% UW each in cash, corporate and government bonds.

JPMorgan

  

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Österreichische Behörden sind der Ansicht, dass osteuropäische Länder mögliche Pleiten von Tochtergesellschaften innerhalb ihrer Grenzen abwickeln und sicher stellen sollten.

Österreichische Banken, die nach dem Ende des kommunistischen Regimes rasch nach Osteuropa strömten und dadurch zu den größten Kreditinstituten in der Region wurden, stehen vor einer Wiederbelebung der zehn Jahre alten Debatte, wer für den Zusammenbruch einer lokalen Tochtergesellschaft aufkommt, sagt ein führender Notenbanker.

Österreichische Behörden sind der Ansicht, dass osteuropäische Länder mögliche Pleiten von Tochtergesellschaften innerhalb ihrer Grenzen abwickeln und sicher stellen sollten, dass die Kosten durch lokal begebene Wertpapiere abgedeckt werden, sodass die Banken-Muttergesellschaften und Österreich effektiv abgeschirmt sind, sagte Vize-Gouverneur Andreas Ittner in einem Interview.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5407040/Oesterreich-laesst-Debatte-um-Ban kenVerluste-wieder-aufleben


  

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Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve and associated recession talk, but the shape of the curve is a distraction. The reality is that the Fed has an inflation target of 2% and core CPI inflation is 2.1% and according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model core PCE inflation in March will come in at 1.9%. Despite the strong uptrend in inflation, the consensus expects core PCE to hit 2% next quarter and then stay at 2.0% for the coming 12 months. In the history of economics, it has never happened in any country anywhere in the world that inflation has hit the target and stayed at exactly that level for 12 months. The risk of an inflation overshoot is rising, and as a result, the belly and the long end of the curve will move higher, finally recognizing that the Fed is right that higher rates are needed across the curve to cool down inflation and the economy.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America First policies
The cumulative, negative effect is rising but still looks very small

• Market participants have always struggled to net the impact of President Trump’s growth-enhancing policies (tax cuts, deregulation) and his growth-inhibiting ones (trade/military conflict, immigration restrictions). 2018 has made the tension most apparent, with trade sanctions coming only a month after tax reform was approved.
• Is the cumulative effect of numerous America First policies eroding the benefits of tax reform? Not yet. Trade conflict has soared to its highest level in at least 35 years but remains trivial compared to the size of the economy. The US’s immigration regime is tightening at its fastest pace since the September 11th attacks, but is far from reducing potential growth materially. US environmental policy is diverging from trends in many other large countries, but with no obvious impact on US energy efficiency. National security issues have surged as a preoccupation but not as a durable driver of market volatility.
• If a common theme with America First policies is that investors should take these measures seriously but not literally, the strategy implication is to keep asset allocation pro-cyclical but to hedge opportunistically, particularly when risk premia are low. In early March, this approach meant hedging trade conflict through currencies. Now, it means fading that stress scenario and focusing on national security issues by owning oil assets.
• Perhaps we are too complacent on the strategic allocation given that the Administration’s impulsive style carries greater risk of miscalculation when applied to national security than when deployed on trade, immigration or environmental issues. Hedges will help, but they will not fully compensate if the Administration must ever be taken literally on America First policies.

JPMorgan

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not To Short

Over the nearly two decades that I ran a hedge fund until I closed it last September, I was an active short seller. There were some epic highs - most notably identifying in early 2008 the bursting of the housing bubble and discovering in 2012 that Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL) was selling formaldehyde-tainted, Chinese-made laminate flooring, both of which landed me on 60 Minutes - but overall I lost a lot of money over the years on the short side.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4152732-lessons-15-years-short-selling-12-reasons-short? page=1

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 10 Reasons To Short

•Short selling is brutally difficult, especially during a long, complacent bull market like this one, so most investors would be better off learning about shorting, but not doing it.

•That said, shorting can make sense for certain investors for 10 reasons.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156799-lessons-15-years-short-selling-10-reasons-short? page=1

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Advice

To make money shorting, look for an edge, be patient, and don't be deterred by long investors and management.

To avoid getting your face ripped off, avoid valuation shorts, accelerating growth, and companies with insanely loyal customers.

Also avoid stocks owned by irrational investors and/or in industries with big, dumb acquirers, and never use options.

weiter:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166837-lessons-15-years-short-selling-veterans-advice

  

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Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about this country

Legendary investor Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway, is bullish on the potential of women in the U.S. to boost the economy.

“I have two sisters that are absolutely smart as I am and better personalities,” Buffett told Yahoo Finance’s editor-in-chief Andy Serwer in a wide-ranging interview. “And, they were born around my time of 1930. And they were told, ‘Marry early and marry well.’

According to Buffett, 87, that was the “unseen message” his sisters received growing up.

“I mean, nobody ever said it that way. So, I have seen half of the United States’ talent basically put off to the side,” he said.

That means that women hold the key to unlocking economic growth in the U.S. A recent report from S&P Global argued that promoting the entry and retention of more women in the workforce in the U.S., particularly in STEM fields, could create a “substantial growth opportunity,” with the potential to add 5% to 10% to nominal GDP in a just few decades.

“It’s one of the things that makes me optimistic about America because when I look at what we have accomplished using half our talent for a couple of centuries, and now I think of doubling the talent that is effectively employed or at least has the chance to be it makes me very optimistic about this country,” Buffett said.

Das TV-Interview: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-women-make-optimistic-country-120930431.htm l

  

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• Our US strategists expect this earnings season to be a significant support for equities as companies deliver stronger-than-expected earnings growth and guidance on shareholder return from tax windfall. Currently, 72% of S&P 500 companies are beating 1Q revenue estimates (vs. 68% prior four earnings seasons) and 82% are beating earnings estimates (vs. 72% prior four earnings seasons). Blended 1Q Revenue Growth (reported + estimate) is now 7.3% and Earnings Growth is 17.6% and our strategists expect companies to beat earnings estimates by 4-5% this quarter. So far, 1Q18 EPS has been revised up by 0.7% to $36.40 and the team expects quarterly EPS of ~$37.50 by end of the season. While this is only based on 58 companies (12% of universe) the team expects the early part of the reporting cycle to set expectations moving forward.
• Our Global Equity strategists continue to see further upside in risky assets as fears over the growth ease and trade/geopolitical uncertainty fades. They believe that it is too early to position for the Fed’s policy mistake as real rates remain outright negative and the gap with the Taylor rule is still significant. They also note that yield curve flattening always happens at this stage of the cycle and equities never peaked before outright yield curve inversion. In the near term, our strategists believe Q1 will be a positive catalyst as the hurdle rate is unassuming. They believe one should be long Cyclicals vs Defensive sectors as bond yields resume their upmove, and the Financials should catch a bid, too. Regionally, they expect Eurozone to keep bottoming out vs the US, and for the EM to keep consolidating.

JPMorgan

  

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• The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings beats and surprises with 36% of S&P 500 companies having reported thus far. About 80% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates (vs. 72% prior four earnings seasons) and 68% are beating 1Q revenue estimates. Blended 1Q Revenue Growth (reported + estimate) is now 7.4% and Earnings Growth is 21.1% (vs. 17.6% last week) —in line with the team’s aggressive expectation of 4-5% for this. Consumer Discretionary (+1.4%) and Healthcare (+1.2%) companies are delivering the strongest post reporting 1-day outperformance while investors have been less impressed by Telecom (-0.9%) and Staples (-0.3%). The S&P 500 is up ~1% since the start of earnings season and further upside is expected as companies exit earnings season blackout period and could accelerate repurchases.

• Our Equity strategists are constructive on equities, and believe one should be adding at these levels. The fundamental supports revolve around still healthy earnings in both the US and in Europe, likely stabilisation in activity momentum as seen in a pickup in US CESI, and improved technical picture. Real rates remain outright negative, central banks accommodative, and it is too early to position for a policy mistake. At a sector level, the team continues to look for further upside in Cyclicals vs Defensives on the expectation of rising bond yields. Our strategists also prefer Eurozone to the US, as Euro headwind is turning, among other, and expect EM to continue consolidating vs DM.

JPMorgan

  

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Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
Warren Buffett sagt ein "böses Ende" für Kryptowährungen voraus. Seine Beteiligungsfirma besitzt Aktien im Wert von 170 Milliarden Dollar. Neue Bilanzregeln sorgen für rote Zahlen.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/unternehmen/5418291/StarInvestor-Buffett-warnt-vor- Bitcoin-und-lobt-Apple

  

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• Global equities remain in a consolidation mode, but with significant regional divergences. Year-to-date, European equities are outperforming, now up 8-10% off the lows, in contrast to the EM which are at the lows and the US which is only 2% off the lows. A lot of the recent EM underperformance has been accompanied by a sharp correction in EM currencies. At a sector level, Cyclicals outperformed Defensives, with US Cyclicals making fresh new highs relative to Defensives and European Cyclicals regaining most of the recent losses.
• In the US, the earnings season has thus far acted as a catalyst to flush out some market dislocations. More so, rapid deleveraging in a poor market liquidity/depth environment is making some of the blue chip defensive names behave more like high beta stocks. For stocks that are effectively priced for perfection even small adjustment in guidance has resulted in disproportionate underperformance (e.g. KHC, PM, and PG are down -29%, -24% and -22% YTD respectively). Besides traditional low volatility sectors, stocks from non-traditional bond-proxy sectors, with strong momentum and compressed volatility, have faced similar risk (e.g. Capital Goods). While downside risk for this space should be more limited going forward, given the significant shift in their realized volatility profile, some further rotation from low volatility stocks to high volatility (e.g. value) stocks could be driven by Quant rebalancing early in May. The team is also reiterating its Energy OW and sees that sector as having the best risk/reward on the back of improving fundamentals, poor investor sentiment, and attractive valuation.
• Our Global Equity strategists are constructive on stocks and reiterate the key regional trades for this year: 1) Eurozone to keep bottoming out vs the US as the main drivers behind the US outperformance over Eurozone are fading – i.e. earnings, Tech and the FX. The worst of the currency headwind happened in Q1, and they believe that in the 2nd half positive sales surprises will shift from the US to Eurozone. Within Eurozone, Italy remains their top pick, but they see DAX as getting increasingly more attractive as well, especially if Euro continues to trade lower. 2) They were OW EM vs DM in 2016 and in 2017, but do not expect EM to outperform this year. FX, Fed, flows, Tech, trade, China dataflow and unwind of QE hurting inflows are some of the reasons behind their more cautious stance on EM, in relative terms.

JPMorgan

  

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We remain positive on equities based on two strong fundamental drivers: record-setting US corporate earnings, and robust and synchronized global economic growth, expected to rebound in 2Q from the 1Q temporary downshift. Meanwhile, key risks we highlighted in recent months appear to have eased: positioning is meaningfully lower, previously elevated valuations are now below historical averages, and central banks’ policies are likely to remain on balance accommodative. Although politics and trade war concerns are still a significant overhang, the worst of uncertainty and political risks might be behind us.

JPMorgan

  

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Currently, about 80% of US states have an unemployment rate below the NAIRU (which is 4.5%), and that is normally when the Fed funds rate peaks. We continue to see the Fed funds rate moving higher but something is different this time around, and our biggest fear is that we will get a non-linear burst in wage and price inflation once the economy runs out of people willing or able to work.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Und der Bericht war dann auch stark. Ich hatte ja schon immer den Verdacht der trades auf Basis seiner Tweets seinen Account

Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"

US-Präsident Donald Trump hat seine Vorfreude zum Arbeitsmarktbericht auf Twitter geteilt. Er freue sich auf die Datenvorlage um 8.30 Uhr Ortszeit (14.30 Uhr MESZ). Der Präsident und sein Stab haben die Möglichkeit, die Daten schon vor ihrer Veröffentlichung zu sehen.

  

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>Und der Bericht war dann auch stark. Ich hatte ja schon immer
>den Verdacht der trades auf Basis seiner Tweets seinen
>Account
>
>Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
>
>US-Präsident Donald Trump hat seine Vorfreude zum
>Arbeitsmarktbericht auf Twitter geteilt. Er freue sich auf die
>Datenvorlage um 8.30 Uhr Ortszeit (14.30 Uhr MESZ). Der
>Präsident und sein Stab haben die Möglichkeit, die Daten schon
>vor ihrer Veröffentlichung zu sehen.


Sehen auch andere so:

Trump Leaking Confidential Data Isn't a ‘So What?’

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-01/trump-leaking-confidential-data-isn-t- a-so-what

  

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Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamental backdrop will remain resilient, with a likely firming in growth into 2H. US PMIs were up for 2 months in a row, and historically US growth tended to lead Eurozone, rather than the other way around. Both the US and Eurozone employee compensation are making new cycle highs, as is consumer confidence. This should ensure DM retail sales continue bouncing from Q1 softness. The weaker Euro should also offer help to German export orders, which fell by a big 10 points at the turn of the year. Policy is still accommodative, and crucially, the inverse bond-equity correlation remains alive, leaving equities with an automatic valuation cushion as bond yields fall. To hedge out Italian uncertainty they reiterate the early May call to move out of Italy into Germany, and out of domestic into exporter plays, as Euro is the relief valve.

JPMorgan

  

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Der historische Handschlag zwischen Kim und Trump hatte über Nacht so gut wie keine Auswirkungen auf das Marktgeschehen. Anders die Bekennung des italienischen Finanzministers Giovanni Tria über Wochenende zum Euro, zur finanziellen Stabilität und zur Absicht die Verschuldungsquote zu reduzieren. Entsprechend stark handelten BTPs gestern und konnten sich in 10y um über 30bps gegenüber Bunds einengen, wobei das kurze Ende mit -50bps in der Rendite erneute am meisten profitierte. Umsätze waren abermals vor allem im Futures-Markt zu verzeichnen, während die Umsätze in der Kasse mit Hinblick auf die signifikante Einengung verhalten blieben.

  

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ECB policy announcement a material negative for the euro

We were expecting an ECB tapering announcement today but not a commitment to keep rates unchanged until at least "the summer of 2019". While the market has not been pricing a rate hike until later next year, we view the introduction of calendar-based guidance as a material negative development for the euro. First, this is the first time in the history of ECB where such unconditional calendar-based guidance has been introduced. Given that the ECB has refused to "pre-commit" in the past and always ascribed to state-contingent guidance, the willingness to enter into fixed date-based guidance is a material evolution to the policy framework signaling a greater dovishness of the council. Second, even if the market has not been priced for a rate hike until after the summer of 2019, calendar-based guidance shifts the distribution of risks. While the ECB can always extend the calendar guidance further out in the event of negative news, the ability for the market to reprice more hawkishly in the event of better news is now severely constrained. This is further reinforced by the conditional based nature of the end to the PSPP program that has been announced.
From a market perspective, the main implication of the "refreshed" ECB guidance should be to depress European rates volatility as well as encourage the use of the euro as a funding currency. We argued in favor of a 1.15-1.20 EURUSD summer range earlier this morning. Our conviction in the lower end of that range holding has now been materially reduced.

Deutsche Bank

  

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A yield curve inversion at the longer end also

This week’s central bank meetings exacerbated the global flattening trend. As a result the yield curve inversion is no longer confined to the front of the US curve but has also emerged at the longer end of the global government bond yield curve. The global government bond yield curve has flattened faster than national curves due to the higher share of the US in short-dated buckets and the higher share of lower yielding non-US bonds in longer-dated buckets.This means that at an aggregate level, bond investors globally are overall requiring no extra premium for holding longer-dated bonds vs short-dated bonds, something that happens rarely, e.g. when investors have little confidence in the trajectory of the economy, or they think monetary policy tightening is overdone or they see a high risk of a correction in risky markets such as equities.While our broader bond market positioning metric based on reactions to economic data suggests bonds have been trading on the long side over the past two weeks, real money investors appear to have joined the spec community in the short duration trade for the first time since January.The CFTC data suggest that 2s/10s steepeners are now a crowded trade, effectively making 2s/10s flatteners a contrarian trade.

JPMorgan

  

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Last week the Fed told us that over the coming years we will have strong above-potential growth.

In a normal forecasting exercise with the economy at full employment, strong growth would mean a strong downtrend in unemployment and a strong uptrend in wage and price inflation. But this is not in the FOMC forecast. The FOMC thinks we will have strong above-trend growth but inflation will stay at 2.1% in 2018, 2019, and 2020, even as growth continues to be significantly above potential. This is not a consistent forecast.

In other words, when putting together a forecast, with the economy at full employment you can’t have three years of above-potential growth with no move higher in inflation.

An alternative explanation is that the FOMC thinks that the unemployment rate moving further below NAIRU has no impact on inflation (i.e. the Phillips curve is completely flat). But if that is the case then why raise rates at all?

Deutsche Bank

  

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The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify

 
Our analysis indicates that such a further escalation of the trade dispute to include $200bn of imports could reduce real GDP growth by roughly -0.2 to -0.3 percentage points. In addition, the effective $32.5 billion “tax” on imported goods could have the effect of boosting core PCE inflation by roughly 0.15 percentage points.

 

Our equity strategists estimate that a 0.2 to 0.3pp drag on GDP growth translates to a 1 to 1.5% hit to S&P 500 earnings growth. In the context of 2018 EPS growth which is on track to hit their forecast of 23% and 2019 growth estimated in double-digits, a 1-1.5% drag is not particularly significant. While the indirect effects of uncertainty and hit to business confidence are harder to gauge, they see corporates responding by putting more of their cashflow towards share buybacks, the primary driver of equities in this cycle from a demand-supply perspective.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Trade war tensions


The increase in trade tensions over the last month has become the key focus for markets. The US administration has implemented several new protectionist measures and is intent on imposing even broader ones in the near-term, including greater control over foreign direct investment in the US designed to reduce the transfer of intellectual property to countries viewed as adversaries. While the direct macroeconomic impact of the existing measures will likely be small for now, further escalation may hurt growth by impacting confidence or tightening financial conditions. We view substantive escalation of trade disputes, leading to unilateral imposition of further tariff and non-tariff barriers as a real possibility.

This comes at a time when growth momentum is at an inflection point, while still remaining strong, particularly in the US. The US economy continues to trend toward fiscal stimulus-driven overheating, while European growth is likely to have peaked. Most emerging markets will continue to grow despite recent market volatility.

There is a renewed divergence between the world’s two largest economies: the Federal Reserve is tightening policy to avert any inflation risks while the European Central Bank has shifted in a dovish direction portends a significant trend for global markets. The spread between 10-year US and German yields has already reached its widest level in almost 30 years, and the euro has been under pressure. The deterioration of the fiscal outlook and debt sustainability in Italy adds to the challenges in Europe.

This divergence in monetary policy is likely to become a major theme again in determining market views. While still expect the dollar to depreciate in the medium term based on the US’s weak external position, the growing rate differentials will provide strong support for now. Sovereign bond yields are likely to rise further as central banks withdraw accommodation but will reflect the divergence of performance. Equities will continue to gain as global growth decelerates but remains strong, albeit with higher volatility.

Deutsche Bank

  

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RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapitalmärkte
Brezinschek: "Ökonomische Fakten gar nicht so schlecht" - An Aktienmärkten überwiegen Risikofaktoren - Über Sommermonate schwächere Indizes erwartet

RBI-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek sieht im von den USA ausgehenden Handelskonflikt das größte Risiko für die Entwicklung der internationalen Kapitalmärkte. Die ökonomischen Fakten seien dagegen "gar nicht so schlecht", sagte Brezinschek am Mittwoch bei der Präsentation der RBI-Kapitalmarktstrategie für das dritte Quartal. Die Aktienmärkte dürften deshalb über die Sommermonate weiter korrigieren.
Zu den fast schon nicht mehr überschaubaren politischen Risiken zählt Brezinschek etwa in Europa die politische Lage in Italien und auch die ungelöste Regierungssituation in Deutschland, die zu einer Blockade der EU führen könnte. Dazu kämen noch zahlreiche außereuropäische politische Risiken.

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung sei dagegen nicht so schlecht. In der Eurozone etwa sollte die Wirtschaft nach 2,6 Prozent im Vorjahr heuer um 2,3 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr um 1,7 Prozent wachsen. In Österreich gebe es aufgrund starker Bruttoanlageninvestitionen sogar eine Sondersituation: Hier erwartet Brezinschek für heuer wie im Vorjahr ein BIP-Plus von 3,0 Prozent und 1,9 Prozent für 2019.

In der CEE-Region dürfte der Wachstumsvorsprung gegenüber der Eurozone weiter anhalten. Enttäuschen würden nur Russland mit unverändert 1,5 Prozent im Jahr 2018 und die Türkei - aber auf hohem Niveau - mit heuer 4,0 Prozent nach 7,4 Prozent im Vorjahr. In Summe werde das Wirtschaftswachstum weltweit auch 2019 über dem Potenzialwachstum liegen.

Eine interessante Entwicklung erwartet Brezinschek ab 2020/2021 für Osteuropa aufgrund der Neuverteilung der EU-Kohäsionsmittel, die aber erst nach den EU-Wahlen im kommenden Jahr beschlossen werden dürfte. Die Gesamtsumme dürfte zwar nur minimal von 335 auf 329 Mrd. Euro sinken, für zentral- und osteuropäische Länder aber von 175 auf 160 Mrd. Euro zurückgehen. Bezogen auf das BIP bedeute dies für die CESEE-Länder sogar einen Rückgang von 28 auf 18 Prozent, was einer wirtschaftlichen Kürzung von 30 bis 35 Prozent entspreche. Der Wachstumsbeitrag dieser Fördermittel könnte von 0,3 bis 0,8 auf 0,2 bis 0,4 Prozent zurückgehen. Die Länder könnten aber mehr Mittel über andere EU-Fonds aufnehmen, relativierte Brezinschek die möglichen negativen Auswirkungen.

Von der geldpolitischen Seite erwartet sich Brezinschek für die Sommermonate eine neutrale Tendenz. Von der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) sei bis zum Sommer 2019 nichts zu erwarten. Die EZB werde mit ihrem Anleihenkaufprogramm ein "Big Player" auf dem Rentenmarkt bleiben. Auf der Währungsseite bleibe der US-Dollar unterstützt, 2019 sollte der Euro aber gegenüber der US-Devise wieder in Richtung 1,25 anziehen. Die osteuropäischen Währungen befänden sich im Schlepptau des etwas angeschlagenen Euro.

Am Rentenmarkt profitierten von der unsicheren politischen Lage in Italien neben Deutschland auch Österreich, wo die Renditen niedriger als erwartet seien. Zehnjährige italienische Staatsanleihen sollten bis Mitte 2019 von aktuell 2,56 noch auf 3,5 Prozent anziehen. Damit würden sie - wie auch für Griechenland - nur knapp über den US-Zinsen liegen, was ein verzerrtes Risiko/Ertrags-Verhältnis sei. Der Grund dafür liege in der "verzerrten" EZB-Politik.

Auf den Aktienmärkten überwiegen derzeit die Risikofaktoren, so Brezinschek. Nicht nur seien saisonal die Sommermonate schwache Monate - "auch das Sentiment macht uns vorsichtig". Obwohl die Gewinndynamik der Unternehmen noch nicht am Ende angelangt sei, dürfte die Korrekturphase überwiegen. Die Gewinndynamik dürfte aber noch drei bis vier Quartale lang anhalten. Bis zum Jahresende sollten die Indexstände wieder höher liegen.

Auch der österreichische Aktienmarkt leide unter dem aktuellen politischen Umfeld, so Stefan Maxian, Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB) - bis heute hat der Leitindex ATX seit Jahresbeginn bereits knapp 6 Prozent verloren und liegt nur mehr knapp über der 3.200-Punkte-Marke. Per Jahresende 2018 dürfte der ATX wieder bei 3.500 Punkten liegen. Die Variation innerhalb der ATX-Titel sei groß, mit dem Versorger Verbund und dem Ölindustriezulieferer SBO an der Spitze. Am unteren Ende liegen AT&S und voestalpine. Das Bewertungsniveau sei günstig, das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) liege mit etwa 11 Prozent unter dem langjährigen Durchschnitt von 12 Prozent. Die Gewinnentwicklung sei solide. Nach 40,6 Prozent erwartet Maxian für heuer 8,6 Prozent.

Sowohl für den österreichischen als auch für die osteuropäischen Aktienmärkte erwartet Maxian über die Sommermonate eine schwächere Performance. Zu Jahresende hin sei dann wieder mit einem Aufschwung zu rechnen. Unter den Einzeltiteln sollten von der anhaltenden Baukonjunktur Palfinger und Strabag profitieren. Unter den anderen von der RBI analysierten Märkten werden nur Russland und die Türkei zum "Kauf" empfohlen.

  

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Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause

Autor: von Alois Wögerbauer, Geschäftsführer und Fondsmanager 3 Banken-Generali Invest

„Alles ist gut – dies macht erfahrene Börsianer vorsichtig.“ Dies war eine unserer Leitplanken zu Jahresbeginn 2018.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/alois-woegerbauer-zwischencheck-vor-der-somm erpause-30474

  

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US overheating

More clients are beginning to worry about upside risks to inflation, and most clients agree that if the consensus is right that GDP growth over the coming quarters will be around 3%, mainly driven by strong capex growth, then we will also continue to see more signs of an overheating labor market and continued labor shortages across sectors including transportation, retail, homebuilding, and health care. With core PCE inflation today already at the Fed’s 2.0% target this projection of continued above-trend GDP growth is pointing to more upside risks to inflation than the end-of-year 2.1% expected by the consensus and the Fed. Some clients push back and say that the consensus capex forecast is too optimistic and companies will end up doing buybacks instead of capex. But the Q1 GDP data showed a very strong capex number suggesting that the corporate tax cut will not only be spent on buybacks but also on business fixed investment, in particular in tech. The bottom line is that there is a significant risk that core PCE inflation in 2018H2 will overshoot 2%, which would push the term premium higher and steepen the yield curve. The argument for a move higher in the term premium is strengthened by the fading of the corporate pension bid for the long end, which will go away in Q4 after the September deadline for contributing to corporate pension plans at the old 35% corporate tax rate.

 

Treasury supply

The total supply of US Treasuries that has to be absorbed by the market (i.e. Treasury net issuance plus Fed running down their balance sheet) will increase from $700bn in 2017 to $1.3trn in 2019, and the key question continues to be: Who will buy all these Treasuries and at what interest rate? Many clients want to discuss the impact the increase in T-bill issuance in 2018H1 had on Libor-OIS and CP and short duration IG. With the US Treasury’s stated goal of keeping the average maturity of government debt constant at around 5.5 years the Treasury will have to issue more paper in the long end in 2018H2, which raises the risk that long-duration credit spreads will widen out in H2, similar to what we saw for Libor-OIS, as issuing more risk-free assets begins to compete for dollars with more risky assets, especially IG. The bottom line is that in 2018H2 increased Treasury supply will push long rates higher and credit spreads wider. Wider IG credit spreads will also be the result of ECB exiting QE and rising hedging costs for foreigners buying US fixed income, mainly driven by the Fed raising short rates.

 

Trade war

US overheating and the explosion in Treasury supply all point to higher rates across the curve. A full-blown trade war, however, would be a drag on rates. But most clients agree that the trade war is so far not having any meaningful impact on the US economic outlook. Specifically, tariffs on $34bn of imports is very limited when taking into account that US total imports are around $2.5trn. If we begin to see tariffs on autos or auto parts then it will be much more serious because US auto manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers account for around 7% of total employment in the US economy. The bottom line is that the negative impact of the ongoing trade war is small but if the trade war moves to cars and car parts then it would begin to exert a meaningful drag on GDP growth and hence also on equities, Fed expectations, and long rates.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Our Global Equity strategists remain positive on the health of the business cycle and believe that the current trade uncertainty will drive policy easing in China, which could in fact further reinforce growth firming in 2H. Equities have derated, sentiment has turned bearish (a good contrarian signal), and monetary conditions remain accommodative. One didn’t tend to have a sustained slowdown without HY spreads widening – these are still near cycle lows. They recommend buying into trade uncertainty driven weakness and find cyclical exporters to be attractive. Autos have never been this cheap. Our strategists maintain a cautious view on EM equities and a Preference for US vs the Eurozone

JPMorgan

  

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Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschüler"
Experte wünscht sich Vorstoß von Österreich in Handelsfragen im Rahmen des EU-Vorsitzes anstatt nur Thema "Sicherheit" zu beackern

Der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China beschäftigt Exporteure, Volkswirtschafter und Wirtschafts- bzw. Finanzanalysten gleichermaßen. Der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek, sieht US-Präsidenten Donald Trump grundsätzlich die richtigen Fragen stellen. "Nur gibt er die falschen Antworten", sagte der Experte am Freitag in einem Gespräch mit Journalisten.
China und andere ehemalige asiatische Emerging Markets seien nach wie vor sehr geschützte Volkswirtschaften und würden hohe Zölle einheben. Dazu käme die Frage des Geistigen Eigentums, da ausländische Unternehmen meist nur mit Joint Ventures Fuß fassen könnten. Das bedeute gleichzeitig einen Technologietransfer. Dagegen wollte Trump eben vorgehen, denn die US-Volkswirtschaft sei viel offener als die asiatischen und auch offener als die europäischen Volkswirtschaften, so Brezinschek.

Grundsätzlich habe es Trump mit seiner Handelspolitik viel stärker auf China als auf die EU abgesehen. Sollte er sich für höhere Zölle auf EU-Kfz entscheiden, dann würde sich das spürbar auswirken, so der RBI-Chefanalyst. "Kommt sofort die Retourkutsche, dann kann das natürlich weiter eskalieren." Der gesamte Konflikt habe bisher keine dramatischen Auswirkungen auf die Stimmung von Einkaufsmanagern in Europa gehabt. Asien ist mehr betroffen. Komme es zu einer Eskalation würde das reale Wachstum wohl aufgefressen werden, so der Fachmann.

Brezinschek ist überzeugt, dass Europa - "im Wissen selbst nicht der Musterschüler zu sein" - über die höheren Zölle nachdenken müsse, das es im Vergleich zu den USA einhebt. Eine "richtige Antwort" wäre ein Versuch eines Handelsabkommens mit den USA - um dann WTO-Regeln entsprechend die Zölle gegenseitig zu senken. Der Experte bedauert, dass es nicht zu TTIP kam und würde sich einen zweiten Anlauf wünschen. Dann könnten auch gemeinsame Industriestandards festgelegt werden, was Vorteile gegenüber China bedeuten würde, da man Rahmenbedingungen selbst vorgebe.

Der RBI-Chefanalyst schlug vor, dass sich Österreich im Rahmen seiner EU-Präsidentschaft nicht nur auf "Sicherheit" konzentrieren sondern auch einen Vorstoß in Handelsfragen tätigen könnte. Es gehe darum, Mitgliedsländer mit Industrie- und Mitgliedsländer mit Agrarschwerpunkt zu einigen um gemeinsam vorzugehen. "Europa ist ein bisserl in einer Zwickmühle - es herrscht Uneinigkeit und keine besondere Offenheit in Handelsfragen. Es gibt einzelne Mitgliedsländer die sich ganz gerne bei gewissen Handelsthemen abschotten. Daher soll sich Europa nicht immer als Moralapostel in Handelsfragen darstellen", sagte Brezinschek. Österreich und Europa sollten zeigen, "wir können noch etwas positives draus machen" und "nicht bei den Zöllen auf die Amerikaner hinzeigen". Die EU und die USA sollten sich stärker zusammenschließen, so der Aufruf des Fachmanns.

  

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Economics: There are a few outliers, but most recent data suggest that global manufacturing growth and goods pricing will pick up in H2. Regionally, Europe is looking more normal but China still vulnerable due to trade conflict. Our economists haven’t lowered global growth numbers on trade because a strong US is offsetting a weaker China, but they are on watch that lower confidence will depress capex relative to strong profits growth.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity strategists continue to recommend using trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity, expecting robust growth fundamentals in H2. They believe that the widespread concerns around the yield curve’s flattening are premature. In fact, they suggest that the eventual sell signal may not even work this time round. Usually, the curve inversion reflects the tightening monetary conditions and worsening credit backdrop. However, the curve could invert in this cycle purely because it was so desynchronized regionally. Germany and Japan are in a sense anchoring the long end of the US yield curve. Their work suggests that the current shape of the yield curve is consistent with double-digit equity performance over the next 12 months. The yield curve has always tended to flatten once the Fed started to hike, and the stocks didn’t tend to peak until after the yield curve got outright inverted. Furthermore, equities tended to move higher for almost a year after the outright inversion. They think that there is a good possibility that the curve steepens next before it ultimately inverts. This could happen if trade tensions ease in 2H and if growth accelerates at the same time. Finally, bank balance sheets are capital rich, HY spreads well behaved, and lending standards keep easing.

JPMorgan

  

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Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and more time looking at the economic data. Everyone who talks about late cycle and a recession coming soon should take a look at this. The US economy is producing the highest number of jobs in the manufacturing sector since 1998. This confirms the overarching investment theme across all asset classes today: The risks of overheating and overshooting inflation are much higher than the risks of a recession. In fact, this is the entire reason the Fed is so keen on raising rates a lot more from current levels.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• There is little doubt that corporate activity has increased significantly this year, boosted by US tax reform and repatriation. But in volume terms, relative to the capitalization of the equity market, the pace of this activity looks much less impressive based on historical standards.
• For example, while the dollar value of global M&A activity stands at $5.6tr YTD on an annualized basis, not far from the record high of $5.8tr seen in 2007, in volume terms it is a third below the 2007 high.
• Announced US buybacks look set to approach one trillion dollars this year if one annualizes their YTD pace, the highest on record. But in volume terms, at 4% of the capitalization of the S&P500 index, this year’s announced US buyback pace is lower than the 6% record high pace seen in 2007 and lower than the 5% post Lehman peak seen in 2012.
• If one looks at net actual buybacks instead rather than gross announced buybacks, the YTD pace of the share count reduction across major US equity indices is almost half of its 2015 high.

JPMorgan

  

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Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimistisch

Trotz des von den USA vom Zaun gebrochenen Handelsstreits stuft US-Notenbankchef Jerome Powell die Risiken für die US-Konjunktur als "ungefähr ausgeglichen" ein.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5465942/FedChef-sieht-USKonjunktur-trotz- Handelsstreit-optimistisch

  

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The reason it is so difficult to quantify the effects of a tariff-driven trade war is that the impact depends on how volumes and prices will react to higher tariffs. Put differently, we don’t know how much demand will fall when prices of solar panels, cars, and soybeans move higher. In economic terms, the problem is that we don’t know the elasticity of demand or the elasticity of supply of the 1000s of products on the tariff list.


Over time, the net effect of the trade war on the US economy will be visible in the hiring decisions of US companies. Looking at the latest employment report it is so far difficult to see any negative effect of the trade war in the macro data. This could, however, be the result of the contemporaneous tailwind to the economy from corporate tax cuts, which just adds another layer of complexity to the quantification of the effects of the trade war on the economy.

 
The bottom line is that so far the macro impact seems to be limited but the anecdotal evidence for washing machines, aluminum, and the auto industry make us worried that negative effects will be showing up in the macro data in the second half of this year. Such a trade war-induced slowdown in GDP growth is the most important downside risk to rates, equities, and the dollar over the coming months, and it would probably be prudent to buy some protection against this scenario.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data

The trade war is having a negative impact on sentiment both for corporates and consumers. But these “soft data” indicators have for the past 18 months been disconnected from the hard data and the disconnect continues; the latest employment report shows that there are no signs of caution in firms’ hiring decisions. Similarly, looking at manufacturing ISM, non-manufacturing ISM, retail sales, and durable goods orders confirms that the economy is not showing signs of slowing down. To conclude that the trade war will in 2018H2 slow down Fed hikes or growth to below potential is based on the assumption that the negative effect of the trade war will be bigger than the positive effect of the corporate tax cuts. Or it is essentially a political forecast of how far the trade war will go from here. So, yes, we worry about any negative effects of the trade war but given the continued strength in the hard data, we continue to believe that the risk of overheating is bigger than the risk of a recession.

Deutsche Bank

  

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>So, yes, we worry about any negative effects of the trade war but
>given the continued strength in the hard data, we continue to believe
>that the risk of overheating is bigger than the risk of a recession.


Der Handelskrieg mag zwar gegen die drohende Überhitzung wirken, vielleicht sogar besser als Zinserhöhungen.
Es gibt allerdings ein Problem: Schießt man mit den Zinsen über das Ziel hinaus, senkt man sie einfach wieder. Den Handelskrieg kann man dagegen nicht kurzfristig einseitig per Deklaration beenden, wenn man wieder mehr Konjunktur braucht.

  

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@realDonaldTrump
China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field...

  

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The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

  

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>rein wissenschaftlich ausgedrückt: er hat einen festen
>poscher.

Um mal einen Grünen zu zitieren " Der glaubt des wirklich!"

  

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das blöde an der geschichte ist, dass wir, sollte er die wiederwahl gewinnen, unseren fokus nach osten (russland china japan indien) ausrichten werden müssen, im sinne von wirtschafts- und sicherheitspolitik. als opfergabe könnten wir ungarn polen und tschechien im tausch gegen für uns wichtige zugeständnisse den russen anbieten. mit wir meine ich die eu oder das was von ihr noch übrig ist. wir müssen uns auch auf eine veränderung der NATO einstellen, die ohne usa und türkei in eine neue form der verteidigungsallianz übergehen wird.

  

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>wirtschafts- und sicherheitspolitik. als opfergabe könnten wir
>ungarn polen und tschechien im tausch gegen für uns wichtige
>zugeständnisse den russen anbieten.


Nicht im Ernst!? Das werden die schon selber entscheiden.

  

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>Nicht im Ernst!?<

nicht im ernst, aber irgendwie ein verlockender gedanke.
wer nicht mehr dabei sein will, sollte auf die jährlichen milliarden verzichten und gehen. es wird auch irgendwie so kommen, die eu wird klagen und hohe strafen verhängen, nach einigem hin und her werden sie die jährlichen zahlungen mit den strafen gegenverrechnen. über kurz oder lang wird es mit diesen drei staaten unter derzeitiger führung wohl keine gemeinschaft geben, ob sie das selber entscheiden wollen oder nicht wird dabei keine rolle spielen. alleine bleiben werden sie nicht können, irgendeinem block werden sie sich anschliessen müssen, wer also käme da wohl in frage? die zeit wird es bringen.

  

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>>Nicht im Ernst!?<
>
>nicht im ernst, aber irgendwie ein verlockender gedanke.
>wer nicht mehr dabei sein will, sollte auf die jährlichen
>milliarden verzichten und gehen.


Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein wollen...

  

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>Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein wollen...<

solange sie mehr nehmen als geben wird deine wahrnehmung zu recht bestehen bleiben.

  

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>>Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein
>wollen...<
>
>solange sie mehr nehmen als geben wird deine wahrnehmung zu
>recht bestehen bleiben.


Dabei fällt mir ein hat es schon mal ein EU-Staat vom Netto-Empfänger zum -Zahler geschafft?

  

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>Dabei fällt mir ein hat es schon mal ein EU-Staat vom Netto-Empfänger
>zum -Zahler geschafft?

Ja, Im Jahr 2000 waren beispielsweise Finnland, Italien und Dänemark Nettoempfänger, die momentan Nettozahler sind.

  

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Letzter Tweet vor dem EU-US-Meeting.

@realDonaldTrump
9 hours ago
The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade. I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade! Hope they do it, we are ready - but they won’t!

  

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How late is the cycle?

Equities typically fall into a bear market around recessions, with the S&P 500 down a median -21%. So 9+ years into the current recovery, market attention is keenly focused on how late the cycle is. Are margins and earnings peaking? Is the flattening 2s10s yield curve pointing to an imminent recession?

 

- What do fundamental metrics indicate as to how advanced the cycle is? The long duration and measures of slack in the labor and output markets unambiguously suggest the cycle is very late. By contrast almost all other indicators, ranging from inflation or cost pressures generated by that limited slack, the cyclical components of demand (housing; durables; and investment spending), confidence, corporate and household leverage, delinquencies and default rates, bank lending standards, margins and earnings, all suggest mid- or in some cases even early-cycle.

 

- The “late” cycle phase when slack is limited can go on for quite long. Limited slack by itself does not end the cycle. What does is either cost pressures that it generates or stretched spending, leverage, overconfidence or other excesses that it has historically coincided with. None of these currently appear to be in place. In the last 3 cycles, the late cycle phase lasted 2-4 years which in the current context would put the next recession potentially as far out as 2021. With core inflation having fallen short of the Fed’s target for 10 years, we expect it to continue to emphasize symmetry around its target and welcome not fret moves above 2%, sticking to its current guidance, possibly moving it up modestly. Moves up in the labor force participation rate, an increase in productivity growth and a higher dollar, all of which are elements of our baseline view, would act to lengthen the cycle.

 

- Getting out early can be costly. Average market returns during the late-cycle phase have not been particularly different from the mid-cycle phase. So historical ex-recession annual price returns of 12% are a reasonable indicator of potential returns in this phase. The timing of the move from late to end cycle is always unclear in real time and if the cycle goes on for longer would imply significant foregone returns amounting for example to median cumulative 42% during the late cycle phase of the last 3 cycles.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Equities have been grinding higher recently, trying their best to ignore adverse trade headlines. US Financials bounced. Regionally, EM equities continued to lag, making fresh year-to-date lows vs DM.
• Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting season will reassure and deliver solid earnings beats. Most investors expect the corporates to use trade concerns as an excuse to reset their guidance and the feeling is that we have already witnessed a raft of profit warnings, but the profit warnings have so far been minimal, significantly below typical for an average reporting season. Consensus expects the S&P500 to deliver ~10% EPS growth, ex tax cut impact. For Europe, the number stands at 8.5%. Ex-Energy, the forecasts drop to just 4% year-on-year. These hurdle rates are subdued in the context of the 10-15% EPS run rate delivered in recent quarters. Top-line growth has been improving in both the US and Europe, which should ease pressure on margins to do the heavy lifting. Euro is turning significantly in favour of exporting sectors. In Q1, the euro was up 15% yoy. In Q2, this hurdle halves to 8%, and the headwind completely disappears in 2H. Out of the early results so far, with 10% of S&P500 having reported, record high proportion (94%) of stocks have beaten expectations and the price reaction post the beats is encouraging. In terms of guidance, our strategists note that 67% of corporates have raised theirs for the full year.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constructive view on equities. They are looking for strong earnings delivery in the current reporting season to provide support to markets. More than a quarter of the companies have reported in the US and Europe to date, and despite a few notable disappointments, results have been quite encouraging. Almost 90% of the companies are beating estimates in the US (the highest proportion of beats since the team started compiling the data in ’09). In Europe as well, results are coming in stronger than the rather subdued expectations. Courtesy of the weaker Euro, the proportion of companies beating on sales has spiked from 45% in Q1 to almost 60% in Q2. The team believes that strong Q2 numbers will set the stage for earnings upgrades into the rest of the year. They also note that the activity backdrop is starting to improve as flash PMIs (based on G3) remain consistent with above trend global growth. Within DM, the team has been advocating OW on US equities, while maintaining a cautious stance on the UK. UK suffers from an adverse growth – policy tradeoff. FX could end up as a “lose-lose” proposition for FTSE100. If GBP moves higher, UK equities will most likely lag, as they traditionally do. If on the other hand, GBP breaks lower from here, it would be due to some tail risk political outcome materializing – such as a hard Brexit or early elections, in which case the traditional inverse correlation between UK equities and the GBP might stop working. Moreover, UK performs relatively better when global equities are falling and when bond yields are moving lower, as it is a defensive high dividend yielding market. In contrast, our strategists believe that global equities will move higher in H2, and expect bond yields to move higher too.

JPMorgan

  

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Equity markets struggled this week despite the strong earnings delivery as trade related concerns resurfaced. At a sector level, Cyclicals underperformed the Defensives in both the US and Europe.

Our Global Equity strategists upgraded EM equities to OW, taking advantage of the 900bp year-to-date underperformance. They believe that USD could start to reverse some of its recent strength, providing support to EM markets. The asset class has witnessed outflows and if the Fed were to skip one of the upcoming quarterly hikes, this could be a positive surprise for EM equities. Further, our strategists believe that the recent Chinese policy easing could lead to growth rebound and they fund the upgrade by cutting Japan. They also upgraded the Mining sector, which has underperformed the broader market 14-15% since June. The sector should be net cash in ’19, it is returning capital, and has 20% EPS upgrade potential with current metal prices. More broadly, they maintain a constructive view on equities and are looking for strong earnings delivery to support markets. More than 60% of the companies have reported in the US and Europe and almost 86% are beating estimates in the US, the highest since at least ’09

JPMorgan

  

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Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates the strength of the July employment report. First, employment in sporting and toy stores fell by 32k, largely because of the Toys “R” Us bankruptcy; while that job loss is real, it tells us little about the underlying labor market trend. Second, a cumulative 59k upward revision to May and June helped push the 3- and 6-month averages above 220k. Third, the composition of job growth was strong, with sturdy gains in cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and temporary help services offset by weaker numbers in less cyclical ones such as education/health and local government. And fourth, a big household survey jobs gain pushed the unemployment rate back down to 3.871%, the underemployment rate U6 down to a new cycle low of 7.5%, and the employment/population ratio up to a new cycle high.

  

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Our overall view is that higher trade barriers are clearly negative from a long-term microeconomic perspective because they make it harder for countries to exploit comparative advantage—i.e., make the things they are good at and import the rest. But from a short-term macroeconomic perspective, it is also true that making the things we are not so good at may require a significant amount of resources, including workers. Especially in trade deficit countries such as the US, the first-order impact on short-term growth and employment is thus not necessarily negative. Trade restrictions can still have adverse macroeconomic effects, but these generally come through secondary channels, such as higher economic policy uncertainty that weighs on investment, lower stock prices, or higher inflation and tighter monetary policy. Our long-term cross-country analysis confirms that trade barriers typically weigh on growth, but the effect is relatively small. So we still think that the trade war is only a moderate downside risk to the US macro outlook unless it escalates much further.

  

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our European equity strategy team have published a note this morning highlighting that with 70% of market cap having reported so far, European Q2 EPS growth is at 5% year-on-year, up from 0% in Q1 and only slightly below the 6% registered earlier in the season. This represents a slight positive surprise relative to consensus expectations for the companies that have reported, which is a good result, given that the sharp deterioration in Euro area growth momentum in Q2 pointed to the risk of a downside surprise. Consensus expects EPS growth to end the earnings season at 2% and then to accelerate to 10% in Q3. Energy, financials and consumer discretionary continue to provide the largest boosts to index-level earnings growth.

Deutsche Bank

  

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US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise

In the wake of the advance Q2 GDP report, comprehensive benchmark revisions, July employment report, and recent developments on the trade front, we have made minor changes to our near-term economic outlook. Most importantly, we now assume that 25% tariffs will be implemented on an additional $200bn of imports from China. Our base case is that these tariffs go into effect in the fall but that tensions are resolved within a few quarters, which should limit the impact on growth and consumer inflation.

With respect to our 2018 forecast, the mark-to-market adjustments that we would have made to account for the recent benchmark revision and employment reports are largely offset by changes that take into account our new base case for trade. Our 2018 real GDP growth (Q4/Q4) forecast remains at 3.0%, reflecting a one-tenth negative impact from trade disruptions offsetting the upward revisions to the data for the first half. Similarly, our core PCE inflation projection remains at 2.1%, which includes a one-tenth bump from tariffs offsetting the downward revision to core PCE in the benchmark revision. Our unemployment rate forecast has been raised a tenth to 3.6% by year-end, which reflects stronger than expected labor force participation in recent employment reports.

We have lowered our 2019 growth forecast by a tenth to 2.4%, largely due to modestly diminished business investment. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.4% for year-end 2019 with core PCE inflation rising to 2.3%. Our 2020 growth forecast is unchanged at 1.3%.

The outlook for the Fed remains the same, as well. We continue to expect quarterly rate hikes through the end of 2019, resulting in the fed funds rate topping out at 3.4% in Q4 of next year.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Donald J. Trump

Verifizierter Account

@realDonaldTrump

I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!

  

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RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise wenig betroffen
Türkischer Staat hat wenig Schulden, Staatspleite daher unwahrscheinlich - Wegen hoher Schulden des Privatsektors könnten der Notenbank aber die Devisenreserven ausgehen

Eine Staatspleite der Türkei ist unwahrscheinlich, meint der Leiter der volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Gunter Deuber. Der türkische Staat selbst habe geringe Schulden, sagte Deuber am Samstag im Ö1-"Mittagsjournal". Allerdings hätten der Privatsektor und staatsnahe Konglomerate sehr hohe Schulden im Ausland.
Allein nach der Verhängung von US-Strafzöllen auf Stahl und Aluminium aus der Türkei hat die türkische Währung Lira gegenüber Euro und US-Dollar rund zehn Prozent verloren. Rund 35 Prozent sind es seit Jahresbeginn, darum wird darüber spekuliert, ob die Türkei zahlungsunfähig werden könnte.

"Die Türkei hat bei internationalen Banken Schulden von über 260 Mrd. Dollar (227 Mrd. Euro), die Devisenreserven des Landes liegen aber nur bei ca. 140 bis 150 Milliarden", sagte Deuber. Wenn sich die Kapitalflucht fortsetze, könnten der Notenbank die Devisenreserven ausgehen. Es könnte daher zu Kapitalverkehrskontrollen kommen. Dadurch würden Cashflow-Planungen von Unternehmen durcheinander kommen und Forderungen vielleicht auch abgeschreiben werden müssen.

Staatspräsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan sollte daher möglichst rasch Zinserhöhungen ermöglichen, "vielleicht sogar in einer Notsitzung über das Wochenende", meint Deuber. Gleichzeitig müsste er einen Wirtschaftsabschwung zulassen, um die inflationierte Wirtschaft abzukühlen, und er müsste mit den IWF oder mit politisch nahestehenden Notenbanken kooperieren, so der RBI-Ökonom.

"Österreich ist in dieser Krise sehr wenig betroffen", so Deuber. "Die Türkei ist gerade knapp unter den 20 wichtigsten Ländern im Außenhandel, aber mit einem Handelsvolumen, das maximal ein Prozent des Außenhandelsvolumens betrifft." Österreich exportiere mehr nach Slowenien als in die Türkei. "Auch die österreichischen Banken sind nur mit ca. einer Milliarde Euro in der Türkei direkt engagiert."

  

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• Equities performed well earlier this week, supported by strong earnings, only to surrender some of these gains towards the weekend, partly on the back of rising Turkey concerns. Tech outperformed, while Energy lagged.
• Our Global Equity strategists highlight that investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious and positioning has lightened up considerably. Concerns over trade, CNY weakness, yield curve flattening, liquidity tightening and the health of the cycle continue dominating. Our strategists believe that this combination of cautious sentiment and the reduced risk exposure presents an opportunity for positive surprises if any of the following materialize: 1) trade fears don’t escalate, 2) PMIs move higher in 2H, 3) Chinese growth picks up, 4) corporate outlooks are not cut, 5) Fed slows down the pace of hikes, 6) USD peaks, an 7) curve steepens before ultimately inverting, etc. They believe that the probability of a number of these is much higher than what markets are pricing-in. Despite numerous headwinds, equity performance remains resilient, beating bonds year-to-date by 8% in the US and by 3% in Europe. Our strategists were cautious on EM this year, but have recently upgraded the region to OW. Within DM, they remain OW US vs Europe. Q2 results have been reassuring. Q2 EPS growth has improved sequentially vs Q1 in both the US and in Europe and an above average proportion of companies have revised EPS guidance higher in the US. Topline delivery remains healthy as well, with revenue up 9% y/y in the US and up 6% y/y in Europe

JPMorgan

  

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WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich anheben

Richard Grieveson: Leitzins sollte um mindestens 500 Basispunkte steigen - Drohende Pleitenwelle in Immobilien- und Baubranche - Österreich von Lira-Krise kaum betroffen

Die türkische Notenbank muss angesichts der Lira-Krise ein deutliches Signal setzen und den Leitzins kräftig anheben, meint der Türkei-Experte des WIIW (Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche), Richard Grieveson. "Ein Anhebung um rund 500 Basispunkte wäre wahrscheinlich das Minimum", sagte Grieveson am Montag zur APA.
Schon beim Zentralbank-Meeting vor drei Wochen habe der Markt eine Zinserhöhung um 100 Basispunkte, also einen Prozentpunkt, auf 18,75 Prozent erwartet. "Damals hätte das noch gereicht", sagte Grieveson. Die Erwartung der Finanzmärkte sei aber enttäuscht worden. Inzwischen sei noch der Streit mit den USA dazugekommen, "und jetzt gibt es wirklich Panik im Fremdwährungsmarkt". Nun sei ein klares Statement der Notenbank notwendig - wobei es schwer sei zu sagen, welche Erhöhung optimal wäre, die Bandbreite der Analystenmeinungen reiche von 300 bis zu 1.000 Basispunkten.

Dabei gehe es nicht einmal so sehr darum, dass die Höhe der Zinsen ein Problem wäre. Die Inflation betrage rund 16 Prozent, die Realzinsen somit fast 2 Prozent. "Das ist normalerweise genug, sogar ziemlich optimal." Das Problem sei aber, dass die wiederholten Beteuerungen der Regierung, wonach die Zentralbank unabhängig sei, nicht ernstgenommen würden. Die Notenbank habe in den letzten fünf, sechs Jahren zwar die Zinsen immer wieder erhöht, aber immer zu spät und zu wenig. "Das Inflationsziel der türkischen Zentralbank liegt bei 5 Prozent. Das haben sie seit 2011 nie erreicht."

Ein zweiter Schlüsselfaktor für die Lira-Abwertung seien die steigenden Spannungen im politischen Verhältnis der Türkei mit den USA und die offensichtliche Entschlossenheit von Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan, es auf einen Wirtschaftskrieg ankommen zu lassen. "Wenn er diesen Kurs weiter verfolgt, wird die türkische Wirtschaft schwer darunter leiden", sagt der WIIW-Ökonom.

Der dritte wichtige Faktor sei die Straffung der Geldpolitik durch die US-Notenbank. "Die Türkei hat ein hohes Leistungsbilanzdefizit von fünf, sechs Prozent des BIP und sie braucht US-Dollar, um dieses Defizit zu finanzieren. In den letzten zehn Jahren war das relativ einfach zu schaffen, weil die US-Zinsen niedrig waren und es zu viele Dollar auf dem Markt gab." Seit April beginne sich das aber zu ändern.

Dabei gehe es nicht um die Staatsschulden oder die Schulden der privaten Haushalte, deren Verschuldung ebenfalls nicht sehr hoch sei, so Grieveson. "Die Staatsschulden betragen 28 Prozent des BIP, das ist sehr niedrig. Das Budgetdefizit ist mit 2 bis 2,5 Prozent auch nicht sehr hoch."

Problematisch sei aber die Situation der Unternehmen, wobei man zwei Gruppen unterscheiden müsse. Die Exporteure und die Tourismusbranche hätten zwar Schulden in Dollar oder Euro, aber auch Einnahmen in diesen Währungen. Problematisch seien angesichts des Lira-Wertverfalls die Fremdwährungsschulden der Immobilien- und der Baubranche, die ihr starkes Wachstum der letzten Jahre vor allem mit Krediten finanziert hätten. "Diese Firmen haben relativ wenig Einnahmen in Dollar oder Euro und haben nun große Probleme, ihre Schulden zu finanzieren." Es wäre eine Überraschung, wenn es in den nächsten Monaten nicht zu einer Pleitewelle kommen würde, glaubt Grieveson.

Österreichs Wirtschaft sei von der Lira-Krise wenig betroffen. "Der Außenhandel mit der Türkei ist nicht sehr wichtig für Österreich, der Handel mit der Türkei macht nur etwa ein Prozent des österreichischen Außenhandelsvolumens aus." Die wichtigsten Produkte in beiden Richtungen seien Maschinen und Fahrzeuge. Die Türkei habe auch eine Autoproduktion und exportiere z.B. Busse.

Der Bestand der österreichischen Direktinvestitionen in der Türkei sei in den letzten Jahren stark zurückgegangen. 2012 hätten österreichische Unternehmen 13,8 Mrd. Euro an Direktinvestitionen in der Türkei gehabt, dieser Wert sei bis 2016 auf 5,5 Mrd. Euro gesunken. "Ein Teil davon ist auf die Lira-Abwertung zurückzuführen, aber das kann nicht alles sein." Seither hat etwa die OMV ihr türkisches Gaskraftwerk Samsun und ihre Türkei-Tochter Petrol Ofisi verkauft.

Bei seinen Wirtschaftsprognosen für die Türkei habe das WIIW schon bisher eher gedämpfte Erwartungen gehabt und angesichts der jüngsten Entwicklung hätten sich die Aussichten noch verschlechtert, sagte Grieveson. Wenn es der Regierung nicht gelinge, die Märkte zu beruhigen, stehe dem Land möglicherweise eine tiefe Rezession bevor, unter der vor allem der Immobilien- und der Bausektor leiden würden. Das WIIW sieht das Wachstumspotenzial der Türkei bei 3,5 bis 4 Prozent pro Jahr, "aber wenn die Regierung ihre derzeit suboptimale Politik fortsetzt, wird die Türkei dieses Niveau bis 2020 wohl nicht wieder erreichen".

  

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Turkey: What are the risks?

 What has caused the sudden focus on Turkey? The Turkish lira has depreciated by 30% against the USD since early July, while the Turkish sovereign CDS spread has risen above 500bps, a ten-year high and up from 140bps at the start of the year. This sharp deterioration in sentiment is a confluence of three factors, in our view:
 USD strength: the broad USD trade-weighted index TWI has historically been the main determinant of EM asset price performance. EM equities’ sharp swing from 16% outperformance in 2017 to the 11% underperformance so far this year is mostly explained by the turns in the USD (down 7% in 2017, up 6% this year). Country-specific EM stories like Turkey’s are always more likely to materialize when USD strength is putting pressure on EM assets more generally.
 Idiosyncratic imbalances: our Turkish economists highlight that Turkey is particularly dependent on a benign external financing environment, given that its corporate sector has net FX-denominated liabilities of $220bn (25% of GDP), the country is running a large current account deficit (at 6% of GDP) and has net foreign liabilities of 50% of GDP as well as low FX reserve adequacy. In addition, a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policy has led inflation to rise to a 15-year high, putting downward pressure on the currency and increasing concerns about the sustainability of the FX-denominated debt.
 Deteriorating Turkey-US relations: the increased diplomatic tensions between Turkey and the US around the detainment of Pastor Brunson, Turkey’s plans to purchase military hardware from Russia and its position on Syria as well as the resulting US sanctions against Turkey have led to a sharp market re-assessment of Turkey’s ability successfully to deal with the pressures resulting from its structural imbalances at a time of USD strength.
 What is the likely outcome of the situation? Our Turkish economists argue that the most likely scenario is one in which a stabilization in US-Turkey relations (including the Brunson case), domestic monetary tightening (to dampen inflationary pressures), fiscal consolidation as well as external financing (potentially from China or Russia) to help service FX-denominated debt leads to a reduction in the macro stress Turkey is currently experiencing. However, they highlight that a less benign scenario remains possible, in which the US-Turkey stand-off morphs into a full-blown international crisis, potentially involving a loss of Turkey’s access to international capital markets.
What is the contagion risk?
 The risk to the Euro area growth cycle seems manageable: exports to Turkey account for around 3% of total Euro area exports, equivalent to 0.6% of Euro area GDP, which is unlikely to be a major risk factor for Euro area growth momentum. Listed European banks have around €110bn in lending exposure to Turkey. Yet, even this constitutes only 1% over their overall loan book, suggesting that it is unlikely that potential credit losses in Turkey will translate into a meaningful hit to Euro area bank lending. Thus, unless the situation turns into a broader EM crisis (see below), the risk to Euro area growth from the situation in Turkey should be limited.

 The risk of further USD strength: as long as the diplomatic stand-off in Turkey continues, there is a risk that this translates into further upward pressure on the broad USD TWI (due to increased political uncertainty), which could spread stress into the wider EM complex and turn a Turkey-specific problem into a broader EM crisis. However, we do not regard this as likely, given that: (a) our economists still see a partial resolution of the stand-off as the central scenario, as highlighted above; (b) our model for the USD TWI – based on 2-year note yield differentials and the global PMI – suggests the USD has already overshot fair-value and has around 4% downside over the coming months; and (c) our FX strategists argue that the US Treasury could react to further USD upside with FX interventions to reverse the recent strength.
 What is the exposure of European corporates to Turkey? The sector most exposed to Turkey is the banks sector. Our banks analysts highlight that five European banks account for the lions’ share of loan exposure to the country: BBVA (11% of assets), UCG (5%), ING (3%), BNP (2%) and HSBC (<1%). Other exposed European companies include Vodafone, Diageo, BAT and Unilever, but their exposure is minor.
 What are the trade implications?
 Remain overweight European banks, underweight defensives: we have recently upgraded European banks from underweight to overweight, as we believe the sharp slowdown in Euro area growth momentum earlier this year is coming to an end and our models point to upside for the Euro area PMI, the key driver of the sector’s performance, given the reduced drag from EUR strength, easing lending conditions and a more favourable inventory cycle. As we have argued above, the situation in Turkey is unlikely to disrupt this projected improvement in Euro area growth momentum. The key European defensive plays – pharma and food & beverages –, on the other hand, have benefitted from fading US bond yields momentum, USD strength and increased macro uncertainty, outperforming the market by 9% and 7%, respectively, since May. Given our expectation that Turkey will not turn into a systemic problem, that US bond yields will rebound to 3.2% by October and that the USD is set to soften in the near-term, our models now imply downside for both sectors over the coming months. Hence, we have downgraded them from overweight to underweight last week.
 Stocks benefitting from further EUR/USD downside and increased political uncertainty near-term. Over the past couple of days the EUR/USD has continued to weaken in line with its historical inverse relationship to the broad USD TWI. For investors worried about a continued stand-off in Turkey, we highlight European stocks that tend to benefit from EUR/USD weakness in combination with increased European political uncertainty. Our screen features, among others, AB InBev, L’Oreal and Imperial. Conversely, stocks that tend to underperform under these conditions include BBVA, Unicredit and Richemont.

Deutsche Bank

  

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>„Lustig wird investieren dann, wenn die Märkte um 40, 50
>Prozent gefallen sind!“
>
>https://www.gewinn.com/geld-und-boerse/anlagetipps/artikel/lustig-wird-investieren-dann-w enn-die-maerkte-um-40-50-prozent-gefallen-sind/
>
>... zusammengefasst naja, wird wohl am Meisten mit den Büchern
>&Co verdienen.

Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50 m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die 200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen Bankkredit finanziert.


Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.

  

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>>„Lustig wird investieren dann, wenn die Märkte um 40, 50
>>Prozent gefallen sind!“
>>
>>https://www.gewinn.com/geld-und-boerse/anlagetipps/artikel/lustig-wird-investieren-dann-w enn-die-maerkte-um-40-50-prozent-gefallen-sind/
>>
>>... zusammengefasst naja, wird wohl am Meisten mit den
>Büchern
>>&Co verdienen.
>
>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50
>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die
>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>Bankkredit finanziert.
>
>
>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.


P.S.: Aber er nutzt die Journalisten sehr geschickt für seine Eigen-PR aus.

  

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>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50
>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die
>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>Bankkredit finanziert.
>
>
>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.


Um Mißverständnisse zu vermeiden das kommt von hier, falls wer diesen Klasssiker nicht kennt:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker

  

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>>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit
>50
>>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um
>die
>>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>>Bankkredit finanziert.
>>
>>
>>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.
>
>

Angeblich hat er aber auch 160 Wohneinheiten in Frankfurt...

  

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>>>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung
>mit
>>50
>>>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute
>sicher um
>>die
>>>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über
>einen
>>>Bankkredit finanziert.
>>>
>>>
>>>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.
>>
>>
>
>Angeblich hat er aber auch 160 Wohneinheiten in Frankfurt...

Das geht... Quelle?

  

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