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• Russia so far has been able to find plenty of willing buyers for its deeply discounted crude oil. On net, Russia was not only able to fully offset the 0.6 mbd crude export loss to its traditional customers in the US and Europe, but managed to sell an additional 1.3 mbd to Asia buyers. Accordingly, Russian oil production has reportedly stabilized: after averaging about 1 mbd lower in April, it has increased 200-300 kbd MoM in May, with more volumes expected to be restored next month.
• Russia however has struggled to re-route oil products rejected by European countries and seems to have been forced to cut refinery throughput. Russian monthly exports of oil products declined by almost 560 kbd since February, and continue to slide in May. Russia refinery outages were nearly 1.6 mbd in April and we expect at least 1.5 mbd of capacity to remain offline in May. Even though seasonal maintenance would normally come to an end in June and July, we expect at least 1.3 mbd of Russian refinery capacity to remain offline through the end of 2022.
• We estimate that India’s imports of Russian crude will stabilize at a current 500 kbd per month, but China could potentially add an additional 1 mbd to its Russian crude oil purchases.