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Via Whitney Tilson:

Here are thoughts from my friend Michael Kao of Akanthos Capital Management:

I may be in the minority on this, but I don't think this "trade war" is going to hurt us that much besides some CPI increases – hell, the Fed has been TRYING to gin CPI above 2%! China, however, is screwed.

What can China do to us?
Not buy more goods? Oops, they already sell $500 billion more than they buy.
Tax our car imports? Oops, they're already at 22.5%.
Not buy our pork? Oops, they just lost 1/3 of their herd.
Not buy our soy/food? Oops, they're short on food, we are long.
Not buy our oil? Oops, WTI trades $10 lower than Brent and is the cheapest oil in the world.
Not allow our internet search? Oops, they never let Google in.
Not allow our e-commerce? Oops, they never let Amazon in.
Not allow our social media? Oops, they never let Facebook in.
Oh right, they have the nuclear option – they can dump our Treasuries. Oops, with 2's/10's flat, our yield curve could USE some steepening. Our banks would love that.

Checkmate, China.


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