Libor Signals Tighter Credit as Banks Balk at Lending

Most of the bond strategists and
salesmen that Resolution Investment Management Ltd.'s Stuart
Thomson talked to last August expected the credit crunch to be
long over by now. Instead, money markets show there's no end in
sight, and it may even worsen.
``It's like an ongoing nightmare and no one is sure when
we're going to wake up,'' said Thomson, a money manager in
Glasgow at Resolution, which oversees $46 billion in bonds.
``Things are going to get worse before they get better.''
In a replay of the last four months of 2007, interest-rate
derivatives imply that banks are becoming more hesitant to lend
on speculation credit losses will increase as the global
economic slowdown deepens. Binit Patel, an economist in London
at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an Aug. 21 report that
nations accounting for half of the world's economy face a
recession.
The premium banks charge for lending short-term cash may
approach the record levels set last year, based on trading in
the forward markets, where financial instruments are sold for
future delivery. Back then, concern about the health of the
banking system led investors to shun all but the safest
government debt, sparking the biggest end-of-year rally for
Treasuries since 2000.
``These problems going into year-end are likely to be worse
this time round because of the amount banks have to refinance in
December,'' Thomson said, citing a figure of $88 billion. ``The
suspicion is that banks are still hiding losses. The banking
system relies on trust and at the minute there quite simply
isn't any.''

Rate Spreads

Banks are charging each other a premium of 77 basis points
over what traders predict the Federal Reserve's daily effective
federal funds rate will average over the next three months to
lend cash. The spread is up from about 24 basis points in
January, and may widen to 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage
point, by mid-December, prices in the forwards market show.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in June that this
spread, which is the difference between the three-month London
interbank offered rate for dollars and the overnight indexed
swap rate, should serve as a measure for telling when markets
have returned to normal.
A narrowing to 25 basis points in the so-called Libor-OIS
spread would be viewed as a positive, he said. Forward markets
signal that won't happen until sometime after June 2010. The
premium averaged 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, in
the 10 years prior to August 2007.

Another 2007

Increased turmoil in the money markets may again serve as a
catalyst for a surprise year-end rally in Treasuries like the
one in 2007.
``The trade to do in December will be to get back into the
most liquid thing you can find,'' such as Treasury bills or
notes, said David Keeble, head of fixed-income strategy in
London at Calyon, a unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-
largest bank by assets. ``We are having a period now of a second
round of pressures on banks. It's weak economic growth which is
now piling the pain onto the banks.''
A year ago, 10-year note yields fell about half a
percentage point to 4 percent between September and December,
even though the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg was for a rise to 5 percent. Treasuries returned 3.98
percent, versus 1.92 percent for company debt and a loss of 3.82
percent in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, according to Merrill
Lynch & Co.

Flow of Cash

And just like last year, economists and strategists are
again calling for an increase in yields. The median of 52
estimates in a Bloomberg survey between Aug. 1 and Aug. 8 was
for 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 4 percent by the end of
2008.
The yield on the benchmark 4 percent note due in August
2018 closed at 3.87 percent last week, rising from 3.31 percent
after the Fed engineered the bailout of Bear Stearns Cos. in
March and inflation accelerated to the highest level in 17 years.
The yield was 3.86 percent as of 10:33 a.m. today in Tokyo.
``The credit crunch remains the centerpiece of our bond
strategy,'' said Resolution's Thomas. He said he's bullish on
Treasuries maturing in five years or less.
Banks began to hoard their cash when rising defaults on
subprime mortgages led two Bear Stearns hedge funds to seek
bankruptcy protection on July 31, 2007, as creditors forced them
to liquidate at least $4 billion of securities tied to the loans.

`Systemic' Problems

Then on Aug. 9, 2007, Paris-based BNP Paribas SA halted
withdrawals from three investment funds because it couldn't
``fairly'' value their subprime debt holdings and the European
Central Bank took the unprecedented action of offering to pump
unlimited cash into the banking system. The BNP funds had about
1.6 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of assets.
Losses and writedowns on securities related to home loans
to people with poor credit now exceed $504 billion at financial
institutions. Last month Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was
forced to seek congressional authority to inject unlimited
capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are responsible
for about 42 percent of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market,
after their shares tumbled about 90 percent, wiping out some $54
billion of stock market value.
Trust among banks remains low even after the Fed cut its
target rate for overnight loans to 2 percent from 5.25 percent
in September and created three emergency lending programs,
including the Term Auction Facility, or TAF. In total, the Fed
has provided almost $1 trillion of emergency loans.
The Fed's most recent lending survey released Aug. 11 said
that more banks tightened credit standards for consumers and
business borrowers since April as defaults and delinquencies on
home loans climbed.

Libor Validity

``The problem is much more systemic than was widely
anticipated a year ago,'' said Michael Darda, chief economist
for MKM Partners LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Not only bank
balance sheets but home balance sheets are under pressure due to
falling house prices.''
The seizure in the credit markets and rise in short-term
borrowing costs this year triggered questions over the validity
of Libor, a benchmark administered by the London-based British
Bankers' Association and used to calculate rates on $360
trillion of financial products worldwide.
The Bank for International Settlements in Basel,
Switzerland, said in March some members of the BBA may have
understated their borrowing costs to avoid being seen as having
difficulty raising financing.

`Pressure on Liquidity'

``Libor markets aren't reflective of the entire banking
system but of three or four major banks that continue to have
pressure on liquidity,'' said Saumil Parikh, a money manager who
helps oversee $688 billion at Pacific Investment Management Co.,
in Newport Beach, California. ``That spreads to the entire
system because you are not really sure who you are going to end
up lending to through the Libor market.''
Restrictive lending makes it harder for growth to
accelerate in U.S. economy, where gross domestic product may
slow to 1.5 percent this year, according to the median forecast
of 76 contributors in a Bloomberg survey that puts a greater
weighting on most recent estimates.
Meanwhile, Europe's GDP unexpectedly fell 0.2 percent in
the second quarter, while Japan's economy shrank at an annual
rate of 2.4 percent in the same period.
The crisis is ``not over and I'm not exactly sure when it's
going to end,'' Nobel Prize-winning economist Myron Scholes said
Aug. 21 at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel
laureates in economics.

  

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21.7.09 13:21
217
ford besser als erwartet
23.7.09 13:13
218
hsbc um 4 milliarden besser als erwartet
03.8.09 10:18
219
ford erstmals seit 2007 mit mehr absatz
03.8.09 17:10
220
      Deutsche Telekom Profit Rises on Reduced Expenses
06.8.09 14:23
221
      Gefälschte Bilanzen: Olympus droht Börsenausschluss
08.11.11 08:13
222
      Deutschland: Rekordumsatz mit Rüstungsgütern
26.11.11 23:10
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      RE: Deutschland: Rekordumsatz mit Rüstungsgütern
11.8.15 11:36
224
Kodak beantragt Gläubigerschutz
19.1.12 12:53
225
RE: Kodak beantragt Gläubigerschutz
19.1.12 17:32
226
Kaufen Sie US-Aktien, die sonst niemand haben will
21.2.12 17:36
227
Apple: Der einsame Analyst
21.2.12 17:39
228
      goldmann hebt kz-apple auf 660$ ot.
08.3.12 15:52
229
      Zehn Aktien stärker als Apple
10.3.12 18:27
230
      RE: Zehn Aktien stärker als Apple
15.3.12 10:10
231
      Insider-Tipps an Galleon-Hedgefonds
22.5.12 12:43
232
      ExxonMobil verbucht 15,9 Milliarden Gewinn
26.7.12 17:49
233
      Verdacht auf neuen Olympus-Skandal
01.8.12 14:16
234
Knauf steigt bei Klöckner ein
19.2.13 21:55
235
Bieter reichen Gebote für ThyssenKrupp-Stahlwerke ein
04.3.13 13:01
236
Intel - Neue Speichertechnologie
30.7.15 07:51
237
Aus Google wird Alphabet
11.8.15 10:17
238
RE: Aus Google wird Alphabet
11.8.15 10:32
239
      RE: Aus Google wird Alphabet
11.8.15 11:07
240
      RE: Aus Google wird Alphabet
11.8.15 11:34
241
Fusion SAB Miller - Anheuser Busch?
16.9.15 15:51
242
Insektenspray schaltet Gene ab
28.9.15 08:48
243
Indien: Smartphone um 4 usd
18.2.16 10:54
244
      .-
30.4.16 16:00
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      .-
30.4.16 16:00
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      .-
30.4.16 16:00
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      .-
30.4.16 15:59
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30.4.16 15:59
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30.4.16 15:58
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30.4.16 15:57
251
Hinkley Point vor dem Scheitern?
07.3.16 22:57
252
Steinhoff -60% nach Bilanzproblemen
06.12.17 10:33
253
RE: Steinhoff -60% nach Bilanzproblemen
06.12.17 12:22
254
RE: Steinhoff -60% nach Bilanzproblemen
06.12.17 12:49
255
RE: Steinhoff -60% nach Bilanzproblemen
06.12.17 17:59
256
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
07.12.17 08:53
257
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
07.12.17 09:08
258
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
07.12.17 09:44
259
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
07.12.17 13:12
260
RE: Steinhoff - Streit mit XXXLutz
07.12.17 17:58
261
RE: Steinhoff - Streit mit XXXLutz
07.12.17 18:28
262
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
08.12.17 08:34
263
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
08.12.17 09:31
264
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
08.12.17 10:07
265
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
08.12.17 10:45
266
RE: Steinhoff - kleine Position gekauft
12.12.17 09:49
267
RE: Steinhoff -60% nach Bilanzproblemen
06.12.17 12:23
268
Bernie Madoff dies at 82
14.4.21 16:14
269
RE: Bernie Madoff dies at 82
14.4.21 16:19
270
MHP KGV 0,5
01.3.22 15:14
271

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