>0,25% Zinsen hin oder her, nach allen geltenden Regeln der >Physik kommen sie da nicht raus.
Insbesondere wenn selbst die >Schweizer jetzt anheben.
JPY intervention -
unlikely to work
1. Intervention to strengthen the currency is at direct odds with Bank of
Japan policy.It is simply not credible for a central bank to be debasing its currency via extreme amounts
of QE while authorities pursue a stronger FX at the same time. When Japan last intervened to defend the
currency in 1998, the US – Japan interest rate differential was moving sideways instead of sharply
higher, like it is today. That the intervention has been unilateral and that it happened on the same day
of a dovish Bank of Japan meeting speaks to the very large internal contradictions.
2. The
amounts required to intervene could become prohibitively costly very quickly. For reference, the last
sizeable JPY buying operation occurred over two days in April 1998 at nearly 3bn USD. Scaling this up by
today’s FX market liquidity would be equivalent to around $10bn USD or 1% of FX reserves. The market will
be interested in seeing the size of intervention which will be released at the end of the month, but if
authorities are intent on intervening by more than symbolic amounts, reserve depletion can build very
quickly.
3. Intervention has not worked in the past. The Japanese authorities have
historically defended USD/JPY from below rather than above. There is only one period of sizeable JPY
buying operations in late 1997 and 1998. The first two saw new highs in USDJPY reached within a month;
the last one in June “worked” but only because the LTCM crisis quickly followed.
The
bottom line is that for the JPY to start strengthening either the global dollar positive environment
needs to turn or the Bank of Japan needs to abandon YCC. Both the FOMC and BoJ meetings over the last
twenty four hours made announcements in favour of USD/JPY higher. As long as this persists, intervention
will just lead to an unnecessary loss of reserves and credibility.
>The bottom line is that for the JPY to start strengthening >either the global dollar positive
environment needs to turn or >the Bank of Japan needs to abandon YCC. Both the FOMC and BoJ >meetings over the last twenty four hours made announcements in >favour of USD/JPY higher.
As long as this persists, >intervention will just lead to an unnecessary loss of reserves >and credibility.
Und vermutlich würde eine geringe Anhebung schon ausreichen, um den
Anstieg einzubremsen. Umso mehr ist das Festhalten an der YCC nicht nachvollziehbar