EZB bleibt auf Lockerungskurs - Zinsen sinken um 0,25 Prozentpunkte Refi-Satz sinkt ebenfalls um
0,25 Prozentpunkte auf 2,15 Prozent -
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) setzt angesichts der
sinkenden Inflation und der schwachen Konjunktur im Euroraum ihren Zinssenkungskurs fort. Der EZB-Rat um
Notenbankchefin Christine Lagarde setzte am Donnerstag den am Finanzmarkt maßgeblichen Einlagensatz, den
Leitzins im Euroraum, um einen Viertelpunkt auf 2,0 Prozent nach unten. Der Zins, zu dem sich Banken
frisches Geld bei der Notenbank besorgen können, wurde ebenfalls um 0,25 Prozentpunkte auf 2,15 Prozent
gesenkt. Seit die Währungshüter Mitte 2024 auf einen Lockerungskurs umgeschwenkt waren, ist dies
bereits die achte Zinssenkung. Zu ihrem weiteren Vorgehen hielt sich die EZB weitgehend bedeckt: "Der
EZB-Rat legt sich nicht im Voraus auf einen bestimmten Zinspfad fest", erklärte die Euro-Notenbank in
ihrer Mitteilung zum Zinsbeschluss.
Mit der Inflation, die unter anderem wegen der Folgen des
Ukraine-Kriegs nach oben geschossen war, sind die Währungshüter inzwischen auf der Ziellinie angelangt.
Die Teuerungsrate im Euroraum lag im Mai noch bei 1,9 Prozent nach 2,2 Prozent im April. Das EZB-Ziel von
2,0 Prozent wurde damit sogar untertroffen.
The Governing Council today decided to lower the
three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit
facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based
on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength
of monetary policy transmission.
Inflation is currently at around the Governing Council’s 2%
medium-term target. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is set to
average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The downward revisions compared with the March
projections, by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, mainly reflect lower assumptions for energy
prices and a stronger euro. Staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 2.4% in 2025 and
1.9% in 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged since March.
Staff see real GDP growth averaging 0.9%
in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The unrevised growth projection for 2025 reflects a stronger than
expected first quarter combined with weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. While the
uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports,
especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will
increasingly support growth over the medium term. Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will
allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the
economy more resilient to global shocks.
In the context of high uncertainty, staff also
assessed some of the mechanisms by which different trade policies could affect growth and inflation under
some alternative illustrative scenarios. These scenarios will be published with the staff projections on
the ECB’s website. Under this scenario analysis, a further escalation of trade tensions over the coming
months would result in growth and inflation being below the baseline projections. By contrast, if trade
tensions were resolved with a benign outcome, growth and, to a lesser extent, inflation would be higher
than in the baseline projections.
Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation
will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Wage growth is
still elevated but continues to moderate visibly, and profits are partially buffering its impact on
inflation. The concerns that increased uncertainty and a volatile market response to the trade tensions
in April would have a tightening impact on financing conditions have eased.
The Governing
Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target.
Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and
meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. The Governing
Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of
the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of
monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Key ECB interest rates The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB
interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main
refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40%
respectively, with effect from 11 June 2025.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic
emergency purchase programme (PEPP) The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and
predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing
securities.
***
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments
within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term
and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission
Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious
threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing
Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
OeNB-Gouverneur Holzmann stimmte neuerlich als Einziger gegen die Zinssenkung
Er habe am
Donnerstag gegen die neuerliche Zinssenkung gestimmt, so Nationalbank-Gouverneur Robert Holzmann. Denn
mit dem aktuellen Zinssatz von zwei Prozent sei die EZB bereits „expansiv“ unterwegs.
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