The ECB cut rates by 25bp to 2.25%, as was universally expected. The decision was unanimous. Other
options came up during the debate, including a 50bp cut, but no one appears to have formally argued for
it. Nevertheless, that 50bp came up and that all those who had previously argued for a pause supported
today’s cut gives the meeting a dovish tone. The policy statement also included many other dovish
elements, including that the disinflation process is “well on track”, that services inflation has slowed
“markedly” and that inflation is likely to settle at around the target. The statement also said clearly
that growth risks were on the downside, not just because of the impact of the trade war itself and the
uncertainty it creates but because the “adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is
likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions”.