Putin met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Moscow on August 6, but concrete results from the meeting remain unclear

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Moscow on August 6, but concrete results from the meeting remain unclear.
Trump may meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the coming weeks.
Certain Russian commentators are attempting to stoke schisms within the Trump administration, likely as part of a wider effort to avoid US sanctions ahead of Trump's stated August 8 deadline for peace efforts in Ukraine.
Russian officials and media continue to project an image of a strong and resilient Russian economy in anticipation of further US sanctions.
US President Donald Trump formally imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on India’s exports to the United States due to India’s ongoing economic cooperation with Russia.
Russian forces likely advanced to the western outskirts of Kupyansk and secured positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into the town.
The US State Department approved a $104 million Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Ukraine.
A Russian servicemember recently executed a Ukrainian civilian in occupied Donetsk Oblast in clear violation of international law.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv and western Zaporizhia oblasts and near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6- 2025

Russian forces are actively achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) of Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are actively achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) of Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. BAI is the use of air power to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term.<3> These operationally significant targets include roads, railways, and bridges (infrastructure that supports GLOCs); command posts; ammunition depots; assembly areas; and training grounds. In simple terms, BAI aims to deny the adversary the use of crucial logistics lines and facilities necessary to sustain battlefield operations.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-drone-innovations-are-likely-achieving- effects-battlefield-air-interdiction

US and Russian officials continue to provide updates about a possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future, but exact details remain uncertain.

Key Takeaways:

US and Russian officials continue to provide updates about a possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future, but exact details remain uncertain.
Putin may have used his meeting with Witkoff to propose a long-range strikes moratorium, which would allow Russia to stockpile long-range drones and missiles and renew devastating large-scale strikes against Ukraine after the moratorium expires. A strikes moratorium will also handicap Ukraine's ability to continue its long-range strike campaign aimed at attriting the Russian defense industrial base and wartime economy.
Russia has significantly scaled up its drone and missile production in 2025, allowing Russia to rapidly increase the size of its strike packages that it launches against Ukraine.
Putin likely claimed to Witkoff that Russia's territorial ambitions are limited to the seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Putin is likely attempting to frame Russia's seizure of the four oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Kremlin demands.
Russia's occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year endeavors.
Russian objectives are not limited to the occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, however, despite Kremlin attempts to frame Russia's war aims as such in an effort to make its demands seem more reasonable. Russia has not abandoned its more extensive, original war aims.
Putin's war aims are also not limited to territory.
The Kremlin is engaged in a delicate balancing act between feigning interest in negotiations to Trump and conditioning Russian society to accept nothing short of Putin's desired full victory in Ukraine, no matter how long it takes.
Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk direction and likely completed the seizure of Toretsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-7-2025

Key Takeaways:

Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as part of a ceasefire agreement.
The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would position Russian forces extremely well to renew their attacks on much more favorable terms, having avoided a long and bloody struggle for the ground. Conceding such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its "fortress belt," the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — with no guarantee that fighting will not resume.
Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities.
Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete.
Ceding Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast will place Russian forces on the borders of Donetsk Oblast, a position that is significantly less defensible than the current line.
Russian positions along the Donetsk-Kharkiv and Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border areas would provide a more advantageous launching point for a future Russian offensive into nearby areas of Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire or peace agreement and renew military aggression against Ukraine in the future unless a peace agreement includes robust monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Putin's reported proposal once again underscores that he maintains his uncompromising demands for Ukraine's capitulation and remains disinterested in good-faith negotiations.
The Kremlin does not appear to be setting the domestic information conditions necessary for the Russian people to accept a settlement short of full victory in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk. Russian forces advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-8-2025

The Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin's reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6. The exact details of Putin's position remain unclear.

German outlet BILD reported on August 9 that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's demand for Ukraine to withdraw from the remainder of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, in addition to the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, as an offer for Russia to withdraw from occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts during the August 6 Putin-Witkoff meeting.<1> BILD reported that Witkoff also misunderstood Putin's proposal for an energy infrastructure and long-range strikes ceasefire, and that Witkoff interpreted Putin's offer as a general ceasefire that would curtail frontline military activity.

Key Takeaways:

The Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin's reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6. The exact details of Putin's position remain unclear.
The only element of Putin's reported position common to all reports is Putin's continued demand for Ukraine to withdraw from unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast — a major Ukrainian concession.
Ukrainian and European officials reportedly presented a counterproposal to US officials on August 9 as European officials continue to issue statements of support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Russian officials welcomed the announcement that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 and referenced Russian narratives about Russia's historical claims to Alaska.
Ukraine continues its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and defense industrial base (DIB) facilities.
Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) replaced Northern Grouping of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-9-2025

Demnächst wird Trump noch für Kriegsverlängerung eintreten weil das so ein tolles Geschäft für die USA ist. WW1 all over again.

The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine

Key Takeaways:

The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the August 15 summit in Alaska.
The Kremlin is attempting to use the upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts.
Ukraine's European allies continue to signal their support for Ukraine and US-led peace efforts ahead of the Alaska summit.
Russian tank losses appear to be declining as Russian forces continue to deprioritize mechanized assaults across the frontline, indicating that the Russian command recognizes that it cannot protect vehicles from Ukrainian drone strike capabilities on the frontline and near rear.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on August 9 to 10, including the first drone strike against a target in the Komi Republic.
Ukrainian drone manufacturers have developed a new drone capable of intercepting higher-speed Russian drones.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-10-2025

Trump expressed the United States' willingness to facilitate substantive peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

Key Takeaways:

US President Donald Trump expressed the United States' willingness to facilitate substantive peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in an effort to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Trump signaled that the United States would aim to return some of Ukraine's economically and strategically significant territories during the peace negotiations process.
Trump indicated that Putin's fear of the impact of US sanctions against Russia and Russia's economic partners drove Putin to propose a bilateral summit.
Putin's decision to reach out immediately before Trump imposed further economic restrictions against Russia or its trading partners undermines the Kremlin's ongoing narrative that sanctions have not and will not affect the Russian economy.
Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that Russia is unwilling to compromise and remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine.
Russian officials and media are also setting informational conditions for Russia to renege on any future peace agreement to end the war.
Putin may try to use the prospect of US-Russian arms control talks to gain concessions from Trump about the war in Ukraine in the August 15 meeting in Alaska.
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are reportedly infiltrating areas near Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk), and Russian forces likely recently advanced southeast of the settlement.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure overnight on August 10 to 11.
Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11 -2025

Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.
Russian milbloggers, who often overinflate Russian advances, questioned Russia's ability to exploit the tactical penetration.
The Russian tactical penetration in the Dobropillya direction was not immediate but came rather after months of Russian preparation and condition setting using new drone innovations and tactics at scale.
Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction are also only the most recent result of over 17 months’ worth of protracted campaigning.
Russian officials are attempting to exploit the tactical penetration near Dobropillya to influence the upcoming US-Russia summit in Alaska, but the Kremlin's overall strategic objective is to break the will of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe to achieve Russia's longstanding demand for full Ukrainian capitulation.
Ukrainian intelligence indicated that North Korea recently deployed 11,000 soldiers to Russia to facilitate Russia's war effort in Ukraine, further demonstrating Russia's commitment to leaning on its anti-Western partners to protract the war in Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Borova, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12 -2025

The Critical Importance of Ukraine's
Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland).

• Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.

• Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in Donetsk Oblast. Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress belt.

• Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014.

• Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities.

• Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete.


Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/critical-importance-ukraine%E2%80%99s-fortress- belt-donetsk-oblast

Russian officials reiterated that Russia's objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged ahead of the Alaska summit on August 15, once again demonstrating that the Kremlin remains uninterested in pursuing serious peace negotiations

Key Takeaways:

Russian officials reiterated that Russia's objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged ahead of the Alaska summit on August 15, once again demonstrating that the Kremlin remains uninterested in pursuing serious peace negotiations.
The Trump administration clarified that the United States will not pursue any agreements with Russia regarding a peace settlement in Ukraine without an immediate ceasefire and without Ukraine's formal involvement in peace negotiations.
Trump reiterated US interest in facilitating future Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations and warned that Russia would face "very severe consequences" if Putin fails to engage in serious peace talks with Ukraine after the Alaska summit.
The Kremlin is using the Alaska summit to portray Russia as a world power equal to the United States and to posture Putin as an equal to US President Donald Trump.
Russia is reportedly preparing to conduct further offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline and to resume limited offensives in southern Ukraine, particularly in Kherson Oblast.
Russia is simultaneously preparing to continue its long-range drone strike campaign against Ukrainian rear areas, which will likely result in further civilian casualties.
Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Russian and Ukrainian sources continued on August 13 to characterize the Russian penetration as consisting of limited, dismounted sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated. ISW's Assessed Russian Advances map layer does not differentiate between enduring Russian positions and limited infiltration missions.
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue attempts to infiltrate Pokrovsk as Russian forces heavily strike the town.
The Kremlin is likely using the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises to facilitate its nuclear saber-rattling campaign ahead of the Alaska summit.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Lyman and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13 -2025

Russian and US officials further clarified the details of the upcoming August 15 Alaska summit

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is likely to use the Alaska summit to try to deflect attention away from peace negotiations with Ukraine and towards the Russia-US relationship in order to court the Trump administration into offering Moscow sorely needed economic rapprochement.
The Kremlin is coming to Alaska with a severely weakened domestic economy, which affords the Trump administration significant leverage during the summit.
US President Donald Trump expressed concerns about the success of a potential secondary meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin is also likely to try to distract from the war in Ukraine by pressuring the Trump administration to engage in bilateral arms control talks at the Alaska summit.
The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) reported that the July 2025 civilian casualties from Russia's war against Ukraine were the highest on record since May 2022.
Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated.
Ukraine's European partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.
Ukraine and Russia conducted their 67th prisoner exchange of the war on August 14.
Ukrainian forces struck a large oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of August 13 to 14.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14 -2025

Key Takeaways:

US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15.
Putin said nothing in the joint press conference to indicate that he has moderated either his war aims or his willingness to compromise on them and reiterated language he has used since 2021 to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
Trump stated that the United States and Russia did not come to a firm agreement about the war in Ukraine.
Russia conducted drone and missile strikes in Ukraine in the hours before the August 15 Alaska summit, causing civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian counterattacks are stabilizing the situation east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk).
The Russian military command is reportedly trying to redeploy forces and means to reinforce and exploit the penetration near Dobropillya but has so far been unsuccessful.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on August 14 to 15.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15 -2025

Key Takeaways:

Various US officials indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be willing to compromise on some war termination demands, but Putin's own statements and Russian official statements contradict these claims.
It is unclear what Putin offered in his meeting with Trump beyond reiterating his demand for Donetsk Oblast and offering a limited ceasefire with no known timeframe in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
Putin’s demand for all of Donetsk Oblast is the most clear and consistent demand coming out of the Alaska Summit.
Ukrainian forces would not be able to conduct a safe and orderly withdrawal from unoccupied Donetsk Oblast in accordance with Putin's demand without a full ceasefire across the entire theater, however
ISW continues to assess that a potential Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast would degrade Ukraine's defensive capabilities and defense industrial base (DIB) and put hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian civilians under Russian occupation. Ukraine would require robust international security guarantees and the immediate deployment of an international peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression.
Seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast would likely be a difficult and years-long effort for Russian forces rather than a quick effort as Putin likely aims to portray, as Russian forces remain unable to secure operationally significant advances or advance faster than foot pace.
Putin's reported rejection of a full ceasefire in Ukraine and the ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts indicate that Putin intends to continue his war in Ukraine while negotiations are ongoing — a point that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev welcomed.
The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian media outlets to present the Alaska summit as a meeting between two superpowers and to prepare Russian society for the possibility of a protracted war in Ukraine.
Russian officials continue rhetorical campaigns designed to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and peace negotiations and to legitimize Russia's war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces likely cleared several settlements within the Russian penetration northeast of Dobropillya.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Siversk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-16-2025

Key Takeaways:

US officials acknowledged that Putin has yet to demonstrate a willingness to offer the concessions necessary to reach a peace agreement.
Russia will be unable to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast rapidly through force, as Russian forces have failed to do for over a decade. Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast.
Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine, a reality far from Putin's claims of rapid advances.
Recent Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk do not indicate that Russia can rapidly seize fortified or urban areas.
Russia continues to deny Ukraine's sovereignty and to demand the right to dictate Ukrainian domestic affairs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's insistence that any peace agreement must address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war will make it difficult to reach a peace agreement as rapidly as Trump desires, given the complexity of the "root causes."
Russia's "root causes" extend beyond Ukraine, and eliminating them would require substantial negotiations with NATO.
Putin's offer of a Russian law forbidding a future invasion of Ukraine is not credible because Russia has already twice broken previous binding international commitments not to invade and because Putin has shown that he can freely change Russian law as he desires.
The details about Ukrainian security guarantees to which Putin may have agreed remain unclear at this time, but the Kremlin may be attempting to resurrect its demands about security guarantors from April 2022 that would have neutered such guarantees.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17 -2025

Russische Truppen verhöhnen Trump nach Alaska-Gipfel: Hissen US-Flagge während Invasion in der Ukraine
https://www.msn.com/de-at/nachrichten/other/russische-truppen-verh%C3%B6hnen-trump-nach-a laska-gipfel-hissen-us-flagge-w%C3%A4hrend-invasion-in-der-ukraine/ss-AA1KJ9xI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ENTPSP&cv id=02325defac8a4e5d9db49b43e1832645&ei=10#image=1

Russland und USA waren ja auch im zweiten Weltkrieg Verbündete!

>Russland und USA waren ja auch im zweiten Weltkrieg
>Verbündete!


Unlängst gelernt - man spricht zwar immer von den Allierten, aber es gab nur zwischen UK und Rußland tatsächlich einen Bündnisvertrag.

# Russische Truppen verhöhnen Trump nach Alaska-Gipfel

Schon wieder falsch (gefakt) kommentiert.
Es sollte bedeuten:
Ein Zeichen des Dankes an Trump für seinen Einsatz.

Man will das gemeine Volk wirklich für
blöd verkaufen.

># Russische Truppen verhöhnen Trump nach Alaska-Gipfel
>
>Schon wieder falsch (gefakt) kommentiert.
>Es sollte bedeuten:
>Ein Zeichen des Dankes an Trump für seinen Einsatz.
>
>Man will das gemeine Volk wirklich für
>blöd verkaufen.


Jetzt werden sie verarscht auch noch die Ukrainer.

>Ein Zeichen des Dankes an Trump für seinen Einsatz.
Die Truppen danken Trump, dass sie jetzt noch schneller verheizt werden?
Oder meinst du, dass es von oben angeordnet ist und Putin dankt Trump dafür, dass er nach seiner Pfeife tanzt? Also doch verhöhnen?

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.
Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit.
Russian officials largely rejected Europe's proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement.
Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.
Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings.
Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine.
Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks.
A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-18-2025

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accurately stated that the Kremlin's objective in Ukraine is to politically control all of Ukraine rather than to seize select Ukrainian territories such as Donetsk Oblast.

• Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 after failing to secure control over Ukraine by other means.

• Russia similarly seeks to exert influence over the internal governance of other former Soviet countries, including NATO states, effectively denying their sovereignty and setting conditions to threaten their independent governance.
• Lavrov implicitly rejected suggestions that Russia might accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

• Russian forces appear to be attempting to counterattack Ukrainian forces clearing the Russian infiltration near Dobropillya as Ukrainian forces increasingly threaten the base of the penetration.

• Russian infiltration tactics and a low manpower density along the frontline in the Pokrovsk direction have seemingly allowed Russian forces to restore limited, tactical maneuver east and southeast of Dobropillya —at least temporarily.

• Ukraine and Russia conducted another exchange of the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on August 19.

• Ukrainian authorities implicated a soldier of the Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in the executions of two Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast in Summer 2024.

• Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19 -2025

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is demanding that Russia have a veto over any Western security guarantees for Ukraine in an effort to undermine ongoing US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to establish conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine.
The Kremlin appears to be demanding that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the Istanbul 2022 framework, which would grant Russia and its allies the right to veto Western military assistance to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats.
The Kremlin is continuing to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the timeline proposed by US President Donald Trump.
The Russian economy continues to face budget deficits as a result of increased defense spending and detrimental effects of Western sanctions and secondary tariffs.
Secondary tariffs are likely forcing Russia to sell oil below market price, which could be decreasing the incoming flow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and depleting Russia’s primary source of wealth.
The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing Russian Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairman Alexander Bastrykin, likely as part of the Kremlin's efforts to form a new and younger elite.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20 -2025

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul negotiations are the only acceptable departure point for potential future negotiations on the war in Ukraine, thereby demanding that Russia and its allies reserve the right to veto any Western military assistance to Ukraine and that Ukraine be left neutered and defenseless against future Russian aggression.
The Kremlin continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and reveal its continued objectives of seizing control of all of Ukraine.
Russia is expending considerable diplomatic effort to court India, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to fear the impact of secondary sanctions.
Russia launched the third largest strike of the war thus far against Ukraine on the night of August 20 to 21, targeting Western regions of Ukraine and causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to innovate and scale production of long-range weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirmed that it replaced former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21 -2025

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russian officials continue to deflect blame for the lack of Putin-Zelensky meeting and Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations by rejecting the legitimacy of Ukraine's democratically elected government.
Ukraine continued its strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Ukrainian authorities returned Ukrainian civilians whom Russian authorities deported from occupied areas of Ukraine to a checkpoint on the Russia-Georgia border.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Novopavlivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22 -2025

Key Takeaways:

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues to spell out Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on US President Donald Trump's preferred timeline.
The Russian MFA's statement that Lavrov is not undermining the peace process because Lavrov is executing Putin's foreign policy directives is an accurate assertion that Putin himself is the impediment to the peace process.
Putin continues efforts to obtain concessions from the United States in the US-Russian bilateral relationship without meaningfully engaging in the peace process in Ukraine.
Trump expressed frustration with the current state of peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in tandem are impacting Russia's fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues.
The Kremlin is likely escalating its hybrid campaign involving GPS and communications jamming against NATO states bordering Russia.
A former Russian servicemember confirmed ISW's assessment that echelons of the Russian military command on the battlefield are actively ordering subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23 -2025

Key Takeaways:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an English-language interview with a US outlet to reiterate the Kremlin's explicit rejection of US-proposed initiatives for peace in Ukraine.
Lavrov continued efforts to mischaracterize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the impediment to an enduring peace in Ukraine, in order to distract from the Kremlin's own unwillingness to compromise or engage in negotiations on US President Donald Trump's proposed timeline.
Lavrov denied that Russia violated past international treaties prohibiting Russia from invading Ukraine and rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine in the future.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian energy infrastructure in Leningrad and Samara oblasts on the night of August 23 to 24.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.
Ukraine and Russia conducted another prisoner exchange that included a limited number of Ukrainian journalists and government officials on August 24.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24 -2025

Key Takeaways:

Russian Technological Adaptations

Russian developers continue to introduce and test new kinetic anti-drone measures such as drone interceptors, thermal imaging sighting systems, and lasers.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are racing to create “smart minefields” by developing complex mining systems.
Russia is reportedly collaborating with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to develop an automated command and control (C2) system for amphibious operations.
The Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies reportedly developed new unmanned surface vehicles (USVs).
Russian Unmanned Systems Tactics

Russian forces are reportedly conducting an echeloned deployment of first-person view (FPV) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) interceptor systems in Ukraine, which may be enabling Russian advances.
Russia reportedly established the first drone control center in Kamchatka Peninsula.
Russian Defense Industrial Base

Russian recruiters are continuing to recruit Russian and Central Asian children and teenagers to construct the Alabuga factory and produce drones at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ).
The Kremlin officially extended tax benefits for some Russian drone manufacturers to incentivize Russian development and production of tactical drones.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-force-generation-and-technological-adap tations-update-august-25-2025

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continue to pressure the Russian penetration east and northeast of Dobropillya.
The Russian military command has reportedly given up efforts to exploit the penetration toward Dobropillya, after Russia's infiltration tactics appear to have been unsuccessful in establishing enduring positions within this penetration.
Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov is likely to become the Chairperson of the Russian Supreme Court, reportedly after Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin refused the Kremlin's offer to assume this position.
Russian authorities recently detained Acting Kursk Oblast Vice Governor Vladimir Bazarov, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for Russian border security failures.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons and joint production ventures.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-25-2025

Key Takeaways:

The United States is reportedly willing to supply supporting assets to a European-led force grouping as part of postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected the presence of troops from NATO countries as part of any security guarantee for Ukraine in recent weeks.
The United States will impose an additional 25 percent tariff on India’s exports to the United States due to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil.
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil refineries have contributed to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia.
The Russian government proposed that Russian President Vladimir Putin withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.
Russian residents in border areas are increasingly apathetic toward the war and accepting that Russia will not agree to an end to the war in the near future.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Sumy and Borova. Russian forces recently advanced near Sumy.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-26-2025

Key Takeaways:

Limited Russian tactical forces recently infiltrated Ukrainian defenses in two border settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but have not established enduring positions in the area.
Russian forces are using infiltration tactics in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast similar to those they used near Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) in early August 2025.
The Kremlin appears to be resuming its drone and missile strike campaign targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian will to resist Russian aggression.
The Kremlin is attempting to undermine US and European joint efforts to determine appropriate security guarantees for Ukraine by seemingly demanding that Russia and the United States privately discuss such matters.
The Kremlin signaled that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unconditionally.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's continued support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and condemned the Soviet Red Army for "invading and occupying" Azerbaijan in 1920 — further aggravating already deteriorating Russian-Azerbaijani relations.
Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-27-2025

Key Takeaways:

Russia killed at least 21 civilians, including children, and damaged civilian infrastructure and European diplomatic facilities during the second largest strike of the war thus far and the largest strike since the August 15 Alaska Summit on the night of August 27 to 28.
Ukraine's ongoing strike campaign targeting Russia’s oil refineries is contributing to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia.
The Russian information space responded to the Ukrainian strikes against the Afipsky and Kuibyshev refineries and reiterated concerns about the poor performance of Russia's air defense systems near critical and military infrastructure.
Russian intelligence services are likely tracking US and European military supply lines in Europe by conducting reconnaissance operations over NATO territory.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Lyman and Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28 -2025

Key Takeaways:

Russia reportedly leveraged the August 15 Alaska Summit in order to stall for a planned Fall 2025 offensive, among other things.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov gave a major speech at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium on August 29 and gave an update on the ten priority directions for the Russian MoD. Belousov also discussed Russian battlefield progress in Ukraine and exaggerated Russian gains in recent weeks.
Belousov indicated that the Russian MoD has shifted its priorities to produce light vehicles over heavy armored vehicles, reflecting Russian battlefield tactics since Winter 2024–2025.
Belousov stated that Russia continues to focus on developing its Unmanned Systems Forces and drone production capacity.
Belousov indicated that the Russian MoD is expanding its efforts to digitalize Russian recruitment, likely as part of wider efforts to augment Russia’s administrative capacity to handle conscription and mobilization processes.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military assets and energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine’s ongoing strikes campaign against Russian oil infrastructure continues to contribute to gasoline shortages in Russia.
US and Ukrainian representatives met in New York City on August 29 and reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for peace negotiations with Russia, including at the level of heads of state.
The US State Department approved a $825 million Foreign Military Sale (FMS) of aviation ammunition and related equipment to Ukraine.
Russian forces recently executed seven Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Myrolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29 -2025

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin appears to have launched a coordinated informational effort posturing military strength on the battlefield in order to shape Western thinking and falsely portray a Russian victory as inevitable.
The Kremlin's presentation of territorial gains statistics ignores the significant losses that Russia is incurring and the gradual, creeping nature of Russia's advances — painting an incomplete picture of Russian performance on the battlefield.
Russia launched another large-scale combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of August 29 to 30 — the third combined strike with over 500 drones and missiles since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska.
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to demote a senior Kremlin official who reportedly advised Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months to end the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military and energy infrastructure in Russia
Russian Investigative Committee Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin will stay in his current position for another year following reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin was considering moving Bastrykin to a new position.
An unknown assailant shot and killed former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Chairperson Andriy Parubiy in Lviv City on August 30.
A Russian servicemember recently murdered an elderly Ukrainian civilian in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is pursuing a multi-pronged informational effort aimed at deterring Western support for Ukraine and undermining European participation in the peace process.
Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for exaggerating its battlefield successes.
The Kremlin is intensifying these information efforts because its territorial gains remain disproportionately limited and slow relative to the high losses incurred.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-augus t-31-2025

Key Takeaways:

Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate his unwillingness to compromise on his unwavering demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
The Kremlin likely timed the publication of a video address by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to coincide with Putin's SCO speech in order to lend legitimacy to Putin's demand for regime change in Ukraine.
Putin's demands for regime change in his SCO speech are not new, but rather the reiteration of his pre-war demands that he has been pursuing throughout the war.
The Russian military command reportedly redeployed relatively "elite" naval infantry and airborne (VDV) forces to Donetsk Oblast from northern Sumy Oblast and the Kherson direction.
The reported redeployments suggest that the Russian Fall 2025 offensive will focus on efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka areas.
Likely Russian GPS jamming affected a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on September 1.
Ukraine reportedly conducted its first strike with its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile on August 30 against occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian authorities reportedly collected new evidence of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov endorsing war crimes against Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september -1-2025

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin leveraged a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to pretend to offer marginal concessions to US demands while continuing to refuse to meet actual US demands and while blaming Europe and the United States for provoking Russian aggression.
Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future.
Russia continues to feel the economic impacts of secondary sanctions against Russian oil-and-gas importers and of recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries.
North Korea is reportedly planning to send about 6,000 more troops to Russia, likely to serve in supporting roles in the Russian rear.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september -2-2025

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that he does not consider Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be the legitimate president of Ukraine, invalidating the very basis of any future peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Putin himself is responsible for Ukraine's inability to legally hold the referendums and elections for which Putin is calling.
Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to explicitly and publicly state that they are committed to achieving Russia's original war aims through military means.
Putin underscored his continued commitment to his theory of victory, a belief that Putin first outlined in June 2024, on September 3.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to publicly deepen Belarusian integration into Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to use footage showing a small-scale infiltration mission to lend legitimacy to inflated claims by Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov on August 30 that Russian forces had seized roughly half of Kupyansk.
The Russian MoD's claims about Kupyansk have failed to convince large parts of the Russian milblogger community, even Kremlin-affiliated and coopted milbloggers.
The Kremlin appears to be trying to exploit the mapping methodologies that have become widespread throughout the war, including from OSINT sources like ISW.
Russia launched another large-scale combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of September 2 to 3—the fourth combined strike of over 500 drones and missiles since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september- 3-2025

Key Takeaways
The British and French-led Coalition of the Willing and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris to discuss possible future security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to ensure a just and lasting peace on September 4.
Macron stated that a strong Ukrainian military must be at the center of any postwar security guarantees.
Macron stated that 26 states formally agreed to form a “reassurance force” as part of security guarantees for postwar Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject any foreign troops on Ukrainian territory as part of postwar security guarantees.
The Coalition of the Willing also outlined ways for states that are unable to deploy ground, sea, or air assets to participate in security guarantees for postwar Ukraine.
The Coalition of the Willing discussed additional sanctions against Russia with US President Donald Trump as part of coordinated Western efforts to deny Russia funding for its war against Ukraine.
Russian bankers continue to express concerns over the increasingly stagnant Russian economy.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk and Siversk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-4-2025/

Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and said that it is impossible to conclude a peace agreement with the current Ukrainian government, effectively eliminating the possibility of serious peace negotiations.
Putin and other Russian officials continue efforts to degrade Western unity and deter Western support for Ukraine, including undermining potential postwar security guarantees.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military and energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Russian-Azerbaijani relations continue to deteriorate.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-5-2025/

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials warned that the Russian military command is regrouping and reinforcing its troops in western Donetsk Oblast, likely ahead of a major offensive operation.
Russian forces are also attempting to interdict key Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in western Donetsk Oblast in order to complicate Ukrainian logistics and enable further Russian advances during future offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.
Recent geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced into northwestern Kupyansk following the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)’s efforts to falsely portray limited infiltrations as enduring advances.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-6-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 6 to 7 with 823 total projectiles.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to deny that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure across Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers building within Kyiv City.
Russian drone strike packages against Ukraine will likely continue to expand as long as Russia is able to increase its long-range strike drone production.
Russia is continuing to expand its long-range strike drone production in part due to support from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Russia’s latest strikes against Ukraine further demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in ending his war in Ukraine and stopping the killing.
Ukraine continued its attacks against military and oil infrastructure in Russia on the night of September 6 to 7.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-7-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev directly threatened Finland and used language that directly mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine.
Medvedev’s threat against Finland is not unique but rather part of an ongoing Kremlin effort to threaten NATO states and justify future Russian aggression.
Russia continues to expand its defense industrial base (DIB) and take measures to safeguard defense industrial enterprises against long-range Ukrainian strikes.
Russia is also reportedly increasing its production of FPVs with fiber optic cables, which Russian forces have successfully leveraged in recent months to achieve some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) in Ukraine.
The Kremlin appears set to institutionalize its long-held practice of torturing and abusing Ukrainian civilian prisoners and prisoners of war (POWs).
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-8-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian territorial gains have become less costly over the last four months compared to Spring 2025 as Russian forces are sustaining a lower casualty rate per square kilometer seized.
Russian casualty rates per square kilometer peaked in the first four months of 2025 as Russian forces fought to maintain the intensified pace of offensive operations they began in Fall 2024.
Russian advances began to slow during the first four months of 2025 as Russian casualties remained consistent, resulting in a higher Russian casualty rate between January and April 2025.
Russian forces began to make quicker gains in May 2025 and have sustained a faster rate of advance over the last four months as Russian casualties marginally decreased, although Russian forces continue to advance at footpace.
Russian casualty rates have likely decreased in Ukraine due to Russia’s renewed emphasis on using UAVs to generate some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI), largely led by UAV operators of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies.
Recent Russian polling suggests that support among the Russian population for the war remains high despite growing casualties and relatively slow advances on the battlefield.
Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a combined strike against three Russian command posts in and near occupied Donetsk City on September 8.
Russian State Duma officials are engaging in a top-down Kremlin-organized effort to threaten Finland.
Russian forces conducted a strike against a mobile pension dispersal point in Donetsk Oblast that killed and wounded dozens of mostly elderly civilians.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-9-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion.
The large number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional Russian effort.
At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones, and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer 2025.
Russian officials denied that the drones came from Russia and attempted to deflect blame onto Ukraine.
Belarusian officials attempted to deny any involvement in the Russian drone incursion despite evidence that the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus.
Russia is likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance.
Russia is likely also attempting to limit or deter Western military aid to Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers amplified various narratives to refute Western reporting about the Russian violation of Polish airspace, many of which cohered with official Russian and Belarusian responses.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to pledge military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaways

Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace.
Poland’s allies reiterated their support for Poland following the drone incursion, condemning Russia for purposefully conducting the incursion to test NATO readiness.
Ukrainian officials responded to the drone incursion by drawing parallels to Russian cycles of aggression and escalation against Ukraine and offered to share Ukraine’s now-institutional counter-drone knowledge with Poland.
The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.
Russian state media is acknowledging the growing gasoline shortages in Russia but is downplaying the role that Ukraine’s deep strike campaign is playing in generating these shortages.
Sweden pledged additional military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Velykomykhailivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-11-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian and Belarusian forces began the joint Zapad-2025 military exercises on September 12 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus may have walked back efforts to use Zapad-2025 to support nuclear saber-rattling operations against the West, at least temporarily.
Belarusian and Russian officials blamed Poland for overreacting to the threat of Russian aggression in response to Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025.
NATO announced the Eastern Sentry operation on September 12 in response to the Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10.
The Russian Central Bank likely prematurely lowered its key interest rate for the third time since June 2025 in an attempt to maintain the facade of domestic economic stability. The lowering of the key interest rate will likely continue to exacerbate Russia’s economic instability.
Ukraine’s partners continue to sanction Russia.
Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Leningrad and Smolensk oblasts on the night of September 11 to 12.
US senators Lindsey Graham, Richard Blumenthal, Katie Britt, and Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill to the US Senate on September 11 to facilitate the return of Ukrainian children that Russia deported.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-12-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian forces recently attempted to advance behind Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk via an underground gas pipeline – the third time Russian forces have used this tactic so far in the war. Russia’s repeated use of this tactic further indicates that Russian forces are improving their ability to disseminate tactical lessons between various sectors of the front line.
The international community continues to condemn the recent Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace.
Russian and Belarusian officials continue to deflect responsibility for Russia’s recent drone incursion into Polish airspace.
Additional information about the Russian drone incursion undermines Nebenzya’s and Tozik’s statements, however.
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-13-2025/

Key Takeaways

A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 13, days after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10.
Poland authorized NATO reinforcements to deploy to Poland for Operation Eastern Sentry in response to the September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion into Polish territory.
Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises.
Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike and sabotage campaign against Russian oil, gas, railway, and military infrastructure in Russia and occupied Crimea on the night of September 13 to 14.
The Kremlin is facing a massive budget deficit and may increase consumer taxes to compensate for the deficit rather than decreasing funding for its war machine, passing the economic costs off as a sacrifice that the Russian population must accept to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Increasing the VAT could reverse any progress the Russian Central Bank may have made against inflation while also failing to address any of the issues that will likely arise from prematurely lowering the key interest rate.
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland.
Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine.
Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states.
The September 12-14 gubernatorial elections in Russia further demonstrated the Kremlin’s grip on power throughout the country.
The Kremlin continues to build out a loyal cadre of elected officials from veterans of its war against Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-15-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16.
Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to rhetorically distance himself from Russia’s recent incursion into Polish airspace in an attempt to obfuscate the fact that Belarus is de facto a cobelligerent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-16-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Trump administration reportedly approved its first European-financed foreign military sales to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative.
Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation.
The Kremlin is using the threat of aggression to try to prevent European states from committing troops to postwar Ukraine as part of Western security guarantees.
Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, pushed Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his senior Kremlin position following years of disagreement with Putin’s policies about the war in Ukraine.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) identified the base and commander of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies.
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) command and staff military exercises are occurring in Kyrgyzstan from September 17 to 20.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-17-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations.
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is also attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine.
The Kremlin appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland.
Lithuanian authorities connected Russian military intelligence to several incidents of arson in Europe in late July 2024 that were likely part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign that aims to sow fear and discord within Europe.
Ukraine and Poland agreed on joint drone development and training mechanisms following the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
The Kremlin will likely introduce a quota to systematically appoint hand-selected veterans of the war in Ukraine to positions in municipal, regional, and federal government in support of the Kremlin’s long-term campaign to militarize Russian society.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly extended Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s military service for five more years, demonstrating how Putin continues to retain an aging cadre of loyalists despite his stated efforts to raise a new, younger elite.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-18-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19.
European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive “drone wall” and provide military support for Ukraine following Russia’s violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
The Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace.
Russia is reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western sanctions.
Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of civilians.
Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia’s handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and near Lyman and Novopavlivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-19-2025/

Key Takeaways

Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy.
Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026.
Russian forces conducted one of the largest drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks on the night of September 19 to 20.
Russia is intensifying its efforts to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve by violating NATO members’ safety zones in the air domain.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of Ukraine’s managed weapons exports program.
Russian commanders continue to order Russian forces to execute Ukrainian civilians and commit acts of perfidy as part of an ongoing trend of Russian commanders systematizing deliberate war crimes among Russian units.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-20-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025.
The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025.
Reports that Russia is creating a strategic reserve further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war against Ukraine but remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield and may be preparing for a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Russia continues to test the limits of NATO’s air defenses over the Baltic Sea as Russia increases the frequency of its violations of NATO states’ airspace.
Russian forces continue to develop drone technologies to increase the volume and precision of strikes against the Ukrainian near rear to further complicate Ukrainian logistics.
The Kremlin reportedly dismissed former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin from military service.
Lapin has proven to be an incompetent commander throughout the war against Ukraine, but the Kremlin is likely punishing Lapin now as part of its ongoing campaign to scapegoat and punish high ranking officials for their failure to repel Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-21-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same.
Putin blamed the West for undermining Russian-US arms cooperation and violating bilateral arms agreements—ignoring how Russia has violated numerous multilateral and bilateral treaties in the past decades.
Putin is attempting to pressure the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement and extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine, as ISW forecasted Russia would in August 2025.
Some Russian defense industrial enterprises are reportedly struggling to expand their production and workforces due to economic constraints, while the Kremlin is prioritizing funding for high-priority enterprises such as drone and missile manufacturers.
The United Nations (UN) reported that the number of casualties from Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians has increased by 40 percent so far in 2025 as compared to 2024.
Ukrainian forces may have targeted high ranking Russian officials in a reported strike against occupied Crimea on the night of September 21 to 22.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-22-2025/

Key Takeaways

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fully liberate all of its internationally recognized territory that Russia currently occupies, following a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) publicly acknowledged Russia’s intent to advance further into Kharkiv Oblast should Russian forces seize Kupyansk, supporting ISW’s assessment of Russia’s operational intent.
The Russian MoD’s September 23 statement undermines repeated Russian claims that Russia’s main military objective and territorial demands in Ukraine are limited to Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
The Russian MoD may be issuing this statement about Russian operational intent to justify ongoing Russian operations to seize Kupyansk to Russian society and frontline forces.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Novopavlivka and in the Dobropillya tactical area and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Siversk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-23-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine.
Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly identified.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law.
Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on September 24 that Russian forces are adapting technological innovations and ground tactics in an attempt to restore maneuver to the battlefield.
Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24.
Ukrainian forces recently conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russia and occupied Crimea, including against Russian oil infrastructure and drone production facilities.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-24-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to artificially inflate its claims of advance in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
Russian forces are reportedly rearranging forces to prepare for offensive operations across several sectors of the frontline but lack the forces and means required to sustain these operations simultaneously.
The Russian offensive in Kupyansk is reportedly vulnerable due to the lack of sufficient forces to sustain simultaneous offensive operations against Kupyansk and several other areas along the frontline.
Russian officials privately admitted that Russia is responsible for the September 19 incursion of three MiG-31 interceptor jets into Estonian airspace.
Russian officials continued attempts to convince the Trump administration to allow Russia to continue its war against Ukraine unimpeded in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s September 23 comments emphasizing that Ukraine has the ability to retake all of its territory.
The Kremlin reportedly plans to allocate less to national defense spending in 2026 than in 2025 but acknowledged that it is increasing some taxes to fund “defense and security.”
The Kremlin is likely looking for different avenues to raise funding for defense and national security spending without aggravating existing socio-economic tensions.
Russia continues to suffer from gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and within the Dobropillya salient.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-25-2025/

Key Takeaways

NATO jets recently scrambled in response to another Russian flight close to NATO airspace as European states struggle with unidentified, likely Russian, drone activity in border areas and near infrastructure.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to respond to increasing Russian aggression against Europe.
Russian officials continue efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine and defensive measures against Russia.
The United States is reportedly considering lifting existing restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use US-produced weapons to strike legitimate military targets located in Russian territory.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-26-2025/

Key Takeaways

Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova absurdly blamed Ukraine on September 26 for the September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion in Poland and the September 13 Russian drone incursion in Romania.
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-27-2025/

Key Takeaways

US Vice President JD Vance criticized Russia’s rejection of American invitations to engage in bilateral or trilateral negotiations as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate their lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted the third largest combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 27 to 28 with 643 total projectiles.
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians called for protests in Moldova following the September 28 parliamentary election.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that Russia will use its upcoming United Nations Security Council (UNSC) presidency to “review” the 1995 Dayton Accords in a likely effort to destabilize the Balkans and divide and distract Europe.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Novopavlivka.


Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-28-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1.
The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures.
The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access.
US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory.
Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-29-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-september-30-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin continues the parallel use of nuclear threats and economic incentives to pressure the United States into normalizing US-Russian relations while explicitly rejecting Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
Russian shadow fleet oil tankers may be connected to the recent incursions of unidentified drones operating in NATO airspace.
The Russian command may be redeploying elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division from the Kramatorsk direction to the Kherson direction.
Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid for over a week as Russia sets conditions to imminently transfer the plant to the Russian power grid.
The European Commission (EC) announced a $4.7 billion aid package for Ukraine using funds from frozen Russian assets.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-1-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to threaten Europe as part of a multi-pronged informational effort to deter the West from responding to hostile Russian actions.
Putin attempted to discourage the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by downplaying their effectiveness and indirectly threatening the United States.
Putin is attempting to exaggerate Russian advances in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US President Donald Trump approved intelligence sharing with Ukraine for long-range strikes against legitimate military targets within Russia.
To mitigate domestic panic over Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries, Russian officials attempted to downplay the reported US decision to increase intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Russian military intelligence is likely conducting hybrid operations in Poland, Germany, and Lithuania to sow fear and discord within NATO states, following indications of a possible future Russian false-flag operation within Poland.
Ukraine and Russia conducted another prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with agreements reached during the June 2 bilateral negotiations in Istanbul.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in northern Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-2-2025/

Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages.
Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days.
Russian forces are likely leveraging recent upgrades to Russian ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems.
Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating in their airspace.
The Kremlin continues efforts to undermine Western-brokered peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.
Norway and Ukraine’s European partners opened the largest training center for Ukrainian military personnel in Poland on October 1.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.



Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-3-2025/

Key Takeaways

German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities.
Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities, possibly as part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war.
Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy infrastructure.
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-4-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.
Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of October 4 to 5 with 163 combined projectiles.
The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party secured widespread majorities in municipal elections in Georgia on October 4, sparking mass protests that Georgian Dream officials tried to blame on Ukraine.
Russia is likely leveraging its close relations with Serbia and Republika Srpska to threaten to destabilize the Balkans and undermine European cohesion.
Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.



Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-5-2025/

Reichweite Taurus übrigens 500km

Key Takeaways

Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
European officials continue to report drone sightings in European airspace.
German officials attributed recent drone flights over the Munich Airport to Russia.
The Kremlin continues to deny responsibility for recent drone incursions into NATO airspace.
Russian forces conducted a fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone strike for the first time against Kramatorsk on October 5 — furthering Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics within and near the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 5 to 6, striking a maternity hospital.
The Ukrainian military continues to transition to a corps structure.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, the Dobropillya tactical area, and near Lyman. Russian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-6-2025/

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
Leaked Russian estimates of Russian killed in action (KIA) to wounded in action (WIA) rates in Ukraine underscore the impact of increased tactical drone usage in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground advances and casualty evacuation.
The leaked estimates indicate that Russian forces suffered their highest casualties in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Lyman directions between January and August 2025, reflecting command prioritization of these sectors of the front.
Russian forces appear able and willing to sustain these casualty rates despite achieving limited tactical advances.
European states continue to provide humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine and conclude joint agreements with Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
The Russian military command reportedly appointed Former Commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel as the deputy commander of the Northern Grouping of Forces.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas and near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-7-2025/

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
Putin acknowledged Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries amidst ongoing gasoline shortages and price surges in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to use defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to gain concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s moves to withdraw from PMDA likely immediately aim to prevent US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and are part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign.
The Russian military command reportedly redeployed elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA, Central Military District ) from south of Pokrovsk to the Novopavlivka direction, which will likely improve Russia’s command and control (C2) in both sectors.
European officials continue to report drone sightings and GPS interference in European airspace.
European officials continued to warn that Russia’s recent drone attacks against Europe are part of a broader campaign to generate fear and disunity in Europe.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and Novopavlivka, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessmen t-october-8-2025/

>https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-drone-innovations-are-likely-achieving- effects-battlefield-air-interdiction


Sehr lesenswert. Man darf die Russen nicht unterschätzen.