Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups reportedly recently advanced into southern Pokrovsk as Russian
forces continue to pursue their operational objective of enveloping the town. Geolocated footage
published on July 21 reportedly shows Russian forces engaging Ukrainian forces driving along the E50
Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway in southern Pokrovsk.<1> A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian
military intelligence stated on July 21 that Russian sabotage groups of unspecified size advanced into
Pokrovsk through Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk) "a couple days ago" and that Ukrainian forces are still
searching for and destroying these Russian groups.<2> Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on July
22 that Ukrainian military personnel operating in Pokrovsk confirmed that Russian sabotage elements
entered the town on July 17 and that Ukrainian forces are conducting clearing operations.<3> Ukrainian
Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on July 18 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian
sabotage and reconnaissance group trying to penetrate Pokrovsk.<4> Geolocated evidence indicates that
Russian forces are advancing close to Pokrovsk from the southwest. Geolocated footage published on July
21 indicates that Russian forces also recently marginally advanced east of Zvirove (southwest of
Pokrovsk) after recently intensifying assaults south of Pokrovsk.<5> A Russian milblogger claimed that
Russian forces advanced further northeast of Zvirove.<6> Another Russian milblogger claimed that Zvirove
is a contested "gray zone."<7>
Key Takeaways: • Russian sabotage and reconnaissance
groups reportedly recently advanced into southern Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to pursue their
operational objective of enveloping the town. • Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet on July
23 in Istanbul for the third round of bilateral negotiations, but Kremlin officials are already
dismissing and undermining the upcoming talks. • Russia’s reported long-term rearmament plans
further indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO. • Russian
authorities recently detained Bryansk Oblast Vice Governor Nikolai Simonenko and former Belgorod Oblast
Vice Governor Rustem Zainullin, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local
officials for larger Russian border security failures following Ukraine's August 2024 Kursk Oblast
incursion. • Russian authorities targeted a Telegram channel that revealed Russia’s role in the late
December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane as part of a wider campaign to censor Telegram
channels that are critical of the Kremlin. • Russian forces recently executed a civilian in the
Lyman direction. • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces
recently advanced in Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Russia is weaponizing ongoing domestic protests in Ukraine to intensify rhetoric designed to undermine
Ukraine's legitimacy and discourage Western support. The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) passed
Draft Law No. 12414 on July 22, which subordinates Ukraine's two main anti-corruption agencies – the
National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) – to the
Ukrainian Prosecutor General. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the draft bill into law later
in the evening on July 22. The bill's passage comes after the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and
Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office conducted a raid against NABU offices on July 21 as part of
investigations into employees allegedly suspected of collaborating with Russia after the NABU opened
investigations into SBU personnel for extortion. Ukrainians began protesting the law on June 22 in
multiple large cities and continued protesting on June 23, citing concerns about the NABU's and SAP's
ability to operate independent of government influence. Zelensky stated that law No. 12414 is necessary
to ensure that Ukraine's anti-corruption bodies can operate without Russian influence and that he will
soon propose bills to the Verkhovna Rada to support the NABU's and SAP's independent operations.
Key Takeaways: • Russia is weaponizing ongoing domestic protests in Ukraine to intensify rhetoric
designed to undermine Ukraine's legitimacy and discourage Western support.
• The ongoing
Ukrainian protests are notably not anti-war demonstrations, but Russian commentators are trying to paint
them as protests against Zelensky and Ukraine's war effort in order to accomplish informational effects
that will generate benefits for Russian forces on the battlefield.
• Ukrainian and Russian
delegations met on July 23 in Istanbul for the third round of bilateral negotiations.
• Kremlin officials continue to undermine the negotiation process while reiterating Russia's commitment
to achieving its original war aims.
• Russia continues to diversify and bolster its security
apparatus in an effort to centralize state power in a way that will worsen the already systematic abuse
of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and civilians in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy
and in western Zaporizhia oblasts and near Borova
Russia will likely implement new policies to augment Russia’s military administrative capacity to
significantly expand the rate at which Russia can call up a larger volume of conscripts and reservists.
Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov introduced a bill to the Russian State
Duma on July 22 that would change the Russian military conscription administrative process to a
year-round cycle, as opposed to the current system, which only processes conscripts during Russia’s
semi-annual spring and fall cycles. Kartapolov claimed that this change would streamline the work of
military registration and enlistment offices, which would work year-round, and relieve emergency workload
pressure that military registration and enlistment offices currently experience during the traditional
semi-annual conscription selection periods in the spring and fall. This new system proposed in the bill
does not institute new conscription cycles beyond Russia’s traditional spring and fall conscription cycle
periods. Kartapolov added that the new model would ensure a uniform load on military registration and
enlistment offices and make the process more convenient for Russian citizens, as conscripts would be able
to undergo their medical examination, obtain military occupational specialty (MOS) assignments, and
complete other necessary procedures throughout the year without rushing during the traditional
three-month conscription periods. Kartapolov claimed that the new model would not make the Russian
military increase its conscription quotas, although the Kremlin has been increasing conscription classes
over the past three years.
The bill would likely mitigate bureaucratic bottlenecks that
complicate Russia's force generation efforts during large-scale involuntary call-ups. Russia’s military
conscription registration and enlistment centers that process mobilized and conscripted personnel
currently only operate for six months of the year in spring and fall to support Russia’s semi-annual
conscription cycles. These offices and administrative personnel rush to call up, evaluate, and process a
large number of military-aged men within the six months, reducing Russia’s ability to facilitate
large-scale call-ups of reservists and conscripts outside of spring and fall. The law’s proposal to have
these processing centers operate year-round would institute a permanent military administrative
bureaucracy able to facilitate Russian reserve call-ups year-round to permanently augment Russia’s
ability to process large numbers of mobilized personnel, regardless of the time of year. Keeping military
processing centers and their staff working all year presents significant implications for the rate at
which Russia can conduct mobilization, as the Russian military administration will have fewer constraints
holding back the rate at which mobilized personnel can be processed and assigned to units.
The Kremlin is setting other legal conditions to facilitate the streamlining of future larger
conscriptions. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on April 21 that simplified conscription
procedures for military-aged men who were selected for semi-annual conscription but did not dispatch for
compulsory military service. The law specifies that conscripts who underwent conscription processes, such
as medical commissions, but were not assigned to military service, could be called up to military service
within one year without needing to repeat the conscription procedures. The Russian military's transition
to a year-round conscription structure coheres with Russia's broader strategic effort to augment and
streamline its force generation capabilities – a move that will have far-reaching implications for its
war in Ukraine and a possible broader confrontation with NATO.
Key Takeaways:
• Russia will likely implement new policies to augment Russia’s military administrative capacity to
significantly expand the rate at which Russia can call up a larger volume of conscripts and
reservists.
• Russia has planned the gradual expansion of the Russian military since 2022, and
the proposed changes to Russia’s personnel processing system are likely intended to support ongoing
efforts to increase the size of the Russian military.
• The expansion of Russia’s
administrative capacity to process conscripts and mobilized personnel would allow Russia to mobilize
forces faster and more efficiently both during a protracted war in Ukraine and a possible future war
against NATO.
• Reductions in the bottlenecks in the Russian conscription process would also
impact Russia's ability to wage future wars.
• Kremlin officials continued to signal Russia's
unwillingness to engage substantively in efforts to establish a lasting peace in Ukraine during the third
round of bilateral talks in Istanbul.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a
draft bill to the Ukrainian parliament on July 24 aimed at bolstering the independence of Ukraine's
anti-corruption agencies in response to public backlash against the controversial bill that Zelensky
signed on July 22.
• The US State Department approved two Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to
Ukraine totaling $322 million.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted their ninth prisoner of war
(POW) exchange on July 23, in accordance with agreements reached during the June 2 bilateral negotiations
in Istanbul.
• Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk,
Borova, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.
Russian officials continue to delay high-level negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin amid US calls for a meeting. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry
Peskov claimed on July 25 that a meeting between Zelensky and Putin remains highly unlikely and stated
that Russia and Ukraine must first develop agreements "through expert work.” US President Donald Trump
told reporters on July 25 that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is “going to happen” and that the
meeting should have “happened three months ago.” Russian officials have repeatedly postponed high-level
meetings between Ukrainian and Russian leaders and refused to engage in constructive negotiations that
seek concrete steps to end the war. ISW continues to assess that Russia is feigning interest in
negotiations in order to buy time to make gains on the battlefield and extract concessions from Ukraine
and the West — in stark contrast to Ukraine’s continued willingness to engage in negotiations to end the
war.
Russian forces likely seized Novoekonomichne (northeast of Pokrovsk) and appear to be
conducting limited sabotage and reconnaissance missions into Pokrovsk amid ongoing Russian efforts to
envelop the town. Geolocated footage published on July 25 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced
into central Novoekonomichne and likely seized the settlement. One Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed
that Ukrainian forces maintain positions near the Kapitalna Mine just west of Novoekonomichne and just
south of the mine. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced further northeast of
Pokrovsk near Nykanorivka, Boikivka, and Zatyshok and south of Pokrovsk near Sukhyi Yar and Novoukrainka.
Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, Central
Military District ) recently participated in the seizure of Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk).
Additional Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian infantry units and sabotage and reconnaissance groups
advanced into and throughout Pokrovsk and into the outskirts of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), and one
Russian milblogger claimed that several Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups temporarily advanced
into central Pokrovsk. The Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that reports that Russian units are in
Pokrovsk are premature, however, and ISW has not observed any indication that Russian forces maintain
enduring positions in Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are conducting limited counterattacks in the area, and
additional geolocated footage published on July 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently retook
positions west of Hrodivka (east of Pokrovsk).
Key Takeaways:
• Russian
officials continue to delay high-level negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and
Russian President Vladimir Putin amid US calls for a meeting.
• Russian forces likely seized
Novoekonomichne (northeast of Pokrovsk) and appear to be conducting limited sabotage and reconnaissance
missions into Pokrovsk amid ongoing Russian efforts to envelop the town.
• Russian forces
recently advanced into and northwest of Kupyansk.
• The Russian military command could pursue
at least three courses of action (COAs) following a future seizure of Kupyansk.
• The Russian
Central Bank lowered its key interest rate for the second time in two months, likely in an attempt to
increase capital available to the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
• The Kremlin
dismissed First Deputy Director-General of the Kremlin newswire TASS Mikhail Gusman, likely in a
continued effort to increase control over domestic media sources affecting Russian-Azerbaijani
relations.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently
advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
The Kremlin launched several programs aimed at introducing Russian schoolchildren to Russian combat drone
production and operations, setting conditions to incorporate these children as experienced military drone
manufacturers or operators in the future. Russian opposition outlet The Insider reported that the Russian
Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI) created a network of clubs and training platforms to introduce
schoolchildren to drone technology and operations, setting conditions to train these students to design,
manufacture, and operate Russian drones. Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the Berloga training
program, which describes itself as a "cyber-physical gaming program," for Russian schoolchildren in July
2022, and the Russian government has supported the program by providing funding and incentives for
children to participate in the program. The Insider reported that the Berloga program teaches children to
operate virtual drones for logistics support and defend against virtual aerial targets — exposing young
children to logistics operations and counter-drone warfare that Russian forces currently employ on the
battlefield, long before these children could start formal military training. Berloga’s developers
claimed that the program aims to ensure that participants, of whom the program claims there are over
600,000, will eventually transition into programming and assembling real drones. The Insider reported
that Berloga program participants move on to the Kremlin-linked Sirius Educational Center, which
incentivizes student participation with scholarships and job opportunities. The Insider reported that the
participants' work directly contributes to solving actual problems of the Sirius Center's partners, over
80 percent of which have direct links to the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and many of which are
drone and space-oriented. The Insider reported that the children involved at the Sirius Center are likely
aware of their efforts supporting military applications, but that the center has likely forbidden the
students from discussing the military affiliations.
The Insider reported that the actors
affiliated with the Berloga program also modified the Archipelago intensive program in 2023 to focus on
teaching participants — including students over the age of 14 years — drone operations, including racing
and launching drones, striking enemy targets, and conducting reconnaissance. The Insider reported that
Berloga also cooperates with the Yunarmia-run youth military-patriotic game Zarnitsa 2.0 and created a
special drone course for Zarnitsa 2.0 participants aged seven to 21 to learn basic quadcopter piloting
skills. Zarnitsa 2.0's organizers claimed in April 2025 that over 240,000 students completed the drone
program that Berloga developed for Zarnitsa 2.0.
Key Takeaways:
Russian Defense
Industrial Base
• The Kremlin launched several programs aimed at introducing Russian
schoolchildren to Russian combat drone production and operations, setting conditions to incorporate these
children as experienced military drone manufacturers or operators in the future.
• Russia
continues to use child and youth labor to produce drones at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in
the Republic of Tatarstan.
• Russia continues to scale up its drone production amid Russia's
increasingly large nightly long-range strike packages against Ukraine.
• Russia may abolish
taxes for some Russian drone manufacturers to incentivize drone production at scale.
Russian
Technological Adaptations
• The Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are continuing to introduce new
optical navigation systems and machine learning (ML) capabilities to the Chernika-2 drone.
• Russian developers recently modernized the Russian Lancet loitering munition and Z-16 reconnaissance
drones by integrating ML capabilities and increased flight range, but have yet to scale Lancet use on the
battlefield.
• Russian forces reportedly tested a new Posokh laser air defense system against
drone targets as part of Russia's efforts to develop new countermeasures against drones that are not
susceptible to EW interference.
• Russian forces have reportedly been employing a new cluster
warhead variant for the Kh-101 cruise missiles to strike Ukrainian cities since June 2024.
• Russian developers introduced a new unmanned surface vehicle (USV) for naval logistics named Briz.
Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of July 25 to
26 and appear to be increasingly integrating missiles into overnight strike packages after mainly relying
on drones in Spring and early Summer 2025. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on July 26 that Russian
forces launched 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts, Yeysk,
Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea; eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai and
Voronezh and Rostov oblasts; and seven Kh-59/69 guided missiles from the airspace over Belgorod Oblast
and occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 208
Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo,
Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air
Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed and suppressed 183 unspecified drones and 17 unspecified
missiles and that 25 drones and 10 drones struck nine unspecified locations in Ukraine.
The
Russian military has used a denser concentration of missiles in recent strikes, and ISW has observed
various reports indicating that the Russian defense industry is increasing its missile and drone
production capabilities. Russia's increasing missile and drone production will likely allow Russia to
continue conducting increasingly larger strikes against Ukraine during Fall 2025, and ISW previously
assessed that Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by
November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue. Increasingly
large Russian strike packages highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering
Ukraine's air defense capabilities, particularly with US-made Patriot air defense systems that can
effectively counter Russian ballistic missile threats.
Russia is increasingly targeting
densely populated cities as part of a cognitive warfare effort to weaken Ukrainian resolve and to
undermine Ukraine's long-term defense capacity. Kharkiv Oblast and City officials reported on July 26
that Russia targeted the city with four guided glide bombs (KABs), two ballistic missiles, and 15
Shahed-type drones, injuring civilians and first responders. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Dnipro City
officials reported on July 26 that Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against
Dnipro City, killing and injuring civilians and damaging multi-story residential buildings and industrial
enterprises. A Russian milblogger claimed on July 26 that Russian forces launched 100 Shahed-136
(Geran-2) drones and up to 15 Iskander missiles against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 40 Shahed-136 (Geran-2)
drones against Kharkiv City. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces targeted the Dnipropetrovsk
Electromechanical Plant in Yelyzavetivka (northwest of Dnipro City) and the HARTRON-ARKOS research and
production enterprise in Kharkiv City, suggesting that Russian forces used over half of their 208 drones
and 27 missiles to target two specific areas.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide
critical air defense and military assistance to Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė
Šakalienė announced on July 26 that Lithuania plans to allocate up to 30 million euros (roughly $35
million) to purchase Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksii
Makeiev stated on July 25 that Germany is preparing to send an additional IRIS-T air defense system to
Ukraine. Germany is also prepared to work with Ukrainian manufacturers to produce additional air defense
systems. German defense company HENSOLDT announced on July 24 that it received an order worth over 340
million euros (roughly $399 million) to provide Ukraine with TRML-4D and SPEXER radar systems for air
defense needs. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DCSA) announced on July 24 that the US State
Department approved a Foreign Military Sale (FMS) of $150 million to Ukraine to enhance Ukrainian
capabilities for maintenance, repair, and overhaul of the M109 155mm self-propelled howitzer.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against
Ukraine on the night of July 25 to 26 and appear to be increasingly integrating missiles into overnight
strike packages after mainly relying on drones in Spring and early Summer 2025.
• Russia is
increasingly targeting densely populated cities as part of a cognitive warfare effort to weaken Ukrainian
resolve and to undermine Ukraine's long-term defense capacity.
• Ukraine’s Western partners
continue to provide critical air defense and military assistance to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian
forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Velykyi Burluk and Lyman. Russian forces
recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Siversk during a reinforced company-sized mechanized
assault. Geolocated footage published on July 27 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced
northeast of Siversk during a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault. The Ukrainian brigade that
repelled the assault reported that Russian forces used six tanks, three armored personnel carriers
(APCs), six MT-LB armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), an armored recovery vehicle, 12 civilian vehicles,
two buggies, and 41 motorcycles. Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces reported on July 26 that Ukrainian
forces repelled a Russian motorized assault comprised of up to 80 unspecified pieces of armored and
motorized vehicles northeast of Siversk, and the July 27 geolocated footage likely shows one wave of the
July 26 assault. Russian forces have long attempted to seize Siversk and have consistently attacked along
the front line in the Siversk direction since at least Summer 2024. Russian forces conducted a series of
battalion-sized mechanized assaults in the Siversk direction in November and December 2024 but have
otherwise largely conducted slow, grinding infantry assaults in this direction. Russian forces
re-intensified offensive operations in the Siversk direction in early Summer 2025, and Russian
milbloggers began claiming in late June 2025 that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are
operating in the eastern outskirts of Siversk.Recent Russian advances northeast of Siversk indicate that
Russian forces are within several kilometers of Siversk, and Russian forces may begin to launch more
concerted attacks into the town in the near future.
Russian forces appear to be using armored
vehicles more frequently in some tactical attacks after a decrease in the use of armor since Winter
2024-2025. Publicly available combat footage indicates that Russian forces have not conducted a
company-sized or larger mechanized assault in Ukraine since April 2025 and have largely leveraged
motorcycles and buggies to attack throughout Summer 2025. Russian forces have recently marginally
increased their use of armored vehicles against Ukrainian positions and have conducted a series of
smaller platoon-sized mechanized assaults in Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblast since early July 2025. ISW has
recently observed indications that Russia temporarily decreased its consumption of tanks and armored
vehicles over the last six months, and that Russia appears to be slowly increasing its ability to
refurbish Soviet-era armored vehicles while also replenishing armored vehicle supplies by not committing
armored vehicles to highly attritional attacks. Russian forces may be temporarily increasing their use of
armor to test for weaknesses in Ukraine's drone-based defense in different frontline areas, or the
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be able to sufficiently repair damaged frontline armor or resupply
frontline Russian units with armor. Russian forces may have also recently increased their risk tolerance
to use and lose armored vehicles, possibly as part of testing a new tactic or concept of operations,
although it is unclear why Russian forces would recalculate this risk. ISW will continue to study the
evolution of combat in Ukraine and provide an updated assessment of Russian armor usage.
The
Kremlin reasserted its unchanged commitment to achieving its long-standing war aims in Ukraine that
amount to nothing short of Ukraine's full capitulation, undermining Russia's diplomatic posturing.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on July 27 that Russia must first fulfill the tasks of its war
in Ukraine before renewing bilateral relations with Ukraine. Peskov claimed that Ukraine and the West
have rejected Russia's proposals for dialogue. Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir
Putin, have continually rejected US, Ukrainian, and European overtures to progress the peace imitative
through dialogue and comprehensive ceasefire agreements. Russia unilaterally imposed short-term
ceasefires in Spring 2025 that disproportionately benefited Russia during prominent political events that
the Kremlin then weaponized to accuse Ukraine of ceasefire violations. Russia has repeatedly articulated
that it seeks regime change in Ukraine, a fundamental restructuring of NATO's open-door policy, and the
reduction of Ukraine's military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself in the future. ISW continues to
assess that Russia aims to continue delaying the negotiation process so as to make additional gains on
the battlefield and extract concessions from Ukraine and the West.
Ukrainian forces recently
killed a Russian commander in the Velykyi Burluk direction. Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces reported
on July 26 that Ukrainian forces killed Russian Colonel Lebedev (first name not reported), commander of
the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army , Leningrad
Military District ) operating in the Velykyi Burluk direction. ISW recently observed reports of the
83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment redeploying likely from northwestern Belgorod Oblast to the Velykyi Burluk
area.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Siversk during
a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault.
• Russian forces appear to be using armored
vehicles more frequently in some tactical attacks after a decrease in the use of armor since Winter
2024-2025.
• The Kremlin reasserted its unchanged commitment to achieving its long-standing
war aims in Ukraine that amount to nothing short of Ukraine's full capitulation, undermining Russia's
diplomatic posturing.
• Ukrainian forces recently killed a Russian commander in the Velykyi
Burluk direction.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka
and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
US President Donald Trump announced a new deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an
end to Russia’s war against Ukraine no later than August 9. Trump stated on July 28 that he is “very
disappointed” with Putin and will “reduce” his previously articulated 50-day deadline by which Putin must
agree to peace negotiations. Trump stated that he will make a new deadline of roughly “10 to 12 days from
today " as Putin’s ongoing disinterest in peace negotiations leaves “no reason” for the United
States to delay its response. Trump insinuated that he will more formally announce the new deadline on
the evening of July 28 or on July 29. Trump's new deadline would expire between August 7 and 9. Trump
previously stated on July 14 that Putin had 50 days (September 2) to conclude a peace agreement with
Ukraine or face "severe” 100 percent secondary tariffs on its trade partners.
Kremlin
officials continue to frame Russia as in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West in order to
generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO. Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed at a Russian youth forum on July 28 that “Russia is fighting alone
against the entire West... for the first time in history” and that Russia “must rely on .” Lavrov
claimed that Russia has "no allies on the battlefield," unlike during the first and second World Wars.
Lavrov’s claim that Russia is operating alone in its war in Ukraine ignores the current support that
Russia receives from North Korea, Iran, and the People's Republic of China (PRC). North Korea has sent
ballistic missiles, artillery shells, and North Korean troops to support Russia's war effort against
Ukraine, and there are economic and political signs of a growing rapprochement between Russia and North
Korea. Iranian Shahed drones have played a key role in Russia‘s air campaigns against Ukrainian cities
throughout the war, and Iran's assistance has allowed Russia to become self-sufficient in producing the
Shahed-variants that Russian forces are increasingly leveraging in frontline strikes. Russia largely
depends on the PRC for support in Russia's ongoing sanctions evasion schemes, and Chinese companies
provide critical dual-use components and microelectronics for Russian military technology. Strengthening
relationships between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the PRC constitute a growing threat to Western
security, and Russia is actively pursuing a global anti-Western alliance. Lavrov's statements also
underscore the Kremlin's efforts to install an informal state ideology that perpetuates the idea that the
West is in an existential conflict with Russia in order to foster unquestioning support of the Russian
government.
Lavrov additionally claimed that Russia had “no alternative” to launching its war
in Ukraine as Russia needed to protect Russian-language speakers in Ukraine, a routine narrative that
Russian officials use to justify Russian aggression against Ukraine. Lavrov claimed that Russia must
insist on its “legitimate” demand: “no drawing Ukraine into NATO, no expansion of NATO at all," and
recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and
Crimea. Lavrov's statements reinforce the Kremlin's commitment to its war goals in Ukraine to the Russian
public, and specifically Russian youth. The Kremlin has devoted a significant amount of time and energy
to generating domestic support for the war, and Russian state and independent polling suggest that most
Russians support continuing the war in Ukraine until Russia achieves its war aims of Ukrainian
"denazification," demilitarization, and neutrality. Russian society's commitment to achieving Russia's
war aims, which the Kremlin has worked hard to foster, will make it much harder for Russian President
Vladimir Putin to present any peace agreement that falls far short of his stated aims as a victory to his
domestic audience. Putin is unlikely to make any concessions in his war aims unless he is forced to do so
by significant Ukrainian battlefield victories, as any negotiated end to the war that does not achieve
all of Putin's objectives would call into question the success, and, potentially, wisdom of Russia's
military campaign in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• US President Donald Trump announced
a new deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine
no later than August 9.
• Kremlin officials continue to frame Russia as in direct geopolitical
confrontation with the West in order to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future
Russian aggression against NATO.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman, Toretsk,
Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump's new deadline for Russia to negotiate an
end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow's interest in continuing the war. Russian Security
Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account
that Trump cannot dictate the timing of peace negotiations and that negotiations will end when Russia has
achieved all of its war objectives — likely referring to Russia's original war aims, including regime
change in Ukraine, changes to NATO’s open-door policy, and the reduction of Ukraine's military such that
it cannot defend itself. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed that Russia will continue
its war against Ukraine in order to protect Russia's interests, despite Trump's July 28 announcement of
the new 10- or 12-day deadline. Peskov claimed that there is currently a slowdown in the process to
normalize Russian-American relations, that the Kremlin remains interested in normalization, and that
progress will require "impulses" from both sides. Peskov claimed that the current state of
Russian-American relations is hindering the process of negotiating an extension of the New START Treaty.
The Kremlin previously dangled the prospect of incentives that were unrelated to the war in Ukraine, such
as bilateral arms control talks and economic projects, in order to extract concessions from the United
States about the war in Ukraine. Peskov's statements about the deterioration of Russian-American
relations and New START are likely part of efforts to compel Trump to renounce his deadline for the sake
of normalizing bilateral relations and pursuing increased cooperation. ISW continues to assess that the
Kremlin is uninterested in negotiations to end the war and is instead trying to protract the war in
Ukraine in order to make additional gains on the battlefield.
Key Takeaways:
• Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump's new deadline for Russia to
negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow's interest in continuing the war.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against civilian targets near
the frontline and in the Ukrainian rear on July 28 and 29 that resulted in high casualties.
• Ukrainian forces appear to be intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian military
industrial facilities and transport networks.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near
Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in
eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
US President Donald Trump specified a deadline of no later than August 8 for Russian President Vladimir
Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations for an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump stated on
July 29 that he is “disappointed” in Putin and clarified that his previous deadline for Russia to
meaningfully engage in negotiations to end the war by August 7 to 9 will now fall 10 days from July 29,
on August 8. Trump stated that he has not received “any response” from Putin regarding Trump’s previously
articulated 50-day and August 7 to 9 deadlines and assessed that Putin aims to seize “the whole” of
Ukraine and “probably” wants to “keep the war going.” Trump stated that he will impose tariffs and
secondary sanctions against Russia’s economic partners on August 8 to pressure Russia into negotiations
if Putin again fails to agree to negotiations. US Department of State Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on
July 29 that Trump may choose to levy tariffs and secondary sanctions sooner than the August 8 deadline,
as Trump “pretty much what the situation .”
Trump announced on July 30 that the
United States will impose a 25 percent tariff and unspecified additional economic penalties on India due
to India’s continued purchases of Russian military equipment and energy since the start of Russia’s
full-scale war against Ukraine. ISW previously noted that India continues to pursue military cooperation
and a strategic economic relationship with Russia while it simultaneously deepens ties with Western
states. India has benefitted from cheap Russian energy since February 2022 and has become one of the
largest importers of Russian oil, signing a 10-year energy deal in December 2024 to receive roughly
500,000 barrels of Russian oil daily. India also continued to procure and commission Russian-built
military equipment until late 2024 and likely seeks to reduce but not eliminate its reliance on Russia
for military equipment. India notably purchased five S-400 air defense systems from Russia in September
2018, but Russia reportedly delayed the delivery of these systems in March 2024 until 2026 to support
Russia's own war effort. Russia also leverages its relationship with India to access critical electronic
components and machinery for the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
Kremlin officials
continued to posture economic strength in response to US President Donald Trump's proposed economic
measures targeting Russia and rejected Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson
Dmitry Peskov claimed in response to Trump's July 29 statements that the Russian economy has been
operating under sanctions for "quite some time" and has developed "immunity" to further sanctions —
effectively dismissing Trump." Peskov's and other Kremlin officials' claims that Russia's economy is
resilient and has been able to withstand sanctions and other economic measures throughout the war largely
ignore Russia's reliance on its allies and partners, including the People's Republic of China (PRC),
Iran, and North Korea, to support the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB). Trump emphasized
on July 30, for example, that the PRC is one of the largest buyers of Russian energy exports. Russian
Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko claimed that Russia's war in Ukraine can only end
after the elimination of the war's "root causes" — a common Kremlin reference to NATO expansion and
Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers. Russian State Duma Deputy from occupied Crimea
Mikhail Sheremet claimed that the United States must engage with Russia "on equal terms" as Russia is a
great power and that Russia is strong thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the unity of
Russia's population. Sheremet claimed that Russia is not "servile" and will not betray its national
interests. Sheremet claimed that Trump's economic measures will not have the results that Trump expects
but will instead hurt the global economy. Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Zhuravlev
claimed that Trump's threats will not work with Russia and called on Russia to continue its "methodic"
combat operations in Ukraine and not allow the United States to distract Russia from its war. Duma
International Affairs Committee Deputy Head Alexei Chepa claimed that Russia has consistently supported a
ceasefire but that a ceasefire is only possible after establishing the "main conditions" of a peace
agreement. Chepa stated that Ukraine and the West are trying to secure a ceasefire in order to allow
Ukraine to rearm, redeploy, and mobilize its forces to continue the war. Russia notably violated several
Russian-imposed short-term frontline and strikes ceasefires in recent months, while accusing Ukraine of
violating ceasefires to which both sides did not formally agree. ISW continues to assess that Russia's
previous attempts to manipulate ceasefires are an indicator of how Russia will likely exploit any future
agreements.
Key Takeaways:
• US President Donald Trump specified a deadline of no
later than August 8 for Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations for an end
to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Kremlin officials continued to posture economic strength in
response to US President Donald Trump's proposed economic measures targeting Russia and rejected Trump's
efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Presidential Administration reportedly issued
guidance to Russian state and pro-Kremlin media outlets and commentators to promote narratives aimed at
weakening the United States–European Union (EU) alliance.
• Russian officials are already
amplifying the Russian Presidential Administration's talking points about the US–EU trade deal and likely
intend to hinder US–European cooperation in support of Ukraine and collective European defense.
• The Kremlin continues to promote an informal state ideology centered on Russian nationalism that
Russia may intend to use in justification of a protracted war in Ukraine and a future conflict against
NATO.
• Russian forces continue to systematically violate the Chemical Weapons Convention
(CWC), to which it is a signatory.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and
Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 31 that Russian forces completed the seizure of
Chasiv Yar, although available geolocated footage does not support claims that Russian forces have yet
advanced to the western administrative boundary of the town. Geolocated footage published on July 31
shows that Russian forces recently raised flags in western and southern Chasiv Yar and indicates that
Russian forces have likely seized most of the settlement. The Russian MoD and numerous Russian
milbloggers credited elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, including its 299th VDV Regiment, with
the seizure of Chasiv Yar. Tactical Russian advances westward in Chasiv Yar do not constitute an
operationally significant development in this area, however, as Russian forces have held most of northern
and central Chasiv Yar since late January 2025 and began advancing in southwestern Chasiv Yar in mid-June
2025. Russian forces have been within tube artillery range of Ukraine's main logistics route through the
fortress belt since late January 2025 and have held positions along the T-0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka
highway for several months, and have yet to significantly threaten Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka.
ISW has yet to observe geolocated footage showing Russian forces operating in the westernmost outskirts
of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces will have to push Ukrainian forces from positions in these outskirts in
order to complete the seizure of the town.
Russian forces have taken 26 months to advance 11
kilometers from the western boundary of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May 2023, to western
Chasiv Yar. Russian forces began an intensified effort to seize Chasiv Yar in April 2024 after slowly
advancing to the settlement's eastern outskirts and seizing Ivanivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) between
May 2023 and March 2024. A Ukrainian source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence
estimated in February 2025 that Russia sustained roughly 4,880 casualties in Chasiv Yar itself between
April 2024 and February 2025, although the total number of Russian casualties sustained remains unclear,
and the tempo of Russian attacks in this area has varied significantly over the last 26 months. Russian
forces advanced into Chasiv Yar in early April 2024 during a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault,
but have rarely used armored vehicles while fighting in the urban areas of the settlement. Russian forces
have significantly leveraged air strikes and infantry infiltration tactics to make gains in Chasiv Yar,
and as a result have suffered significant personnel losses for disproportionately small territorial gains
in the ruins of Chasiv Yar. ISW currently assesses that Russian forces have seized roughly 7.81 square
kilometers of the roughly 10 square kilometers within Chasiv Yar's administrative boundaries.
Russia has launched a simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump's
efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Russia has used strikes largely affecting civilian areas in Kyiv
City as well as threats and other rhetorical efforts in order to Trump that Russia continues rejecting
Trump's demand that the Kremlin meaningfully engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The
Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk
City and 309 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo,
Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 30 to 31. This strike
package is significantly larger than the average Russian strike prior to May 2025. The Ukrainian Air
Force reported that Russian forces mainly targeted Kyiv City and that Ukrainian forces downed three
Iskander-K cruise missiles and 288 drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five cruise missiles and
21 drones struck 12 locations and that missile and drone debris struck 19 locations, primarily in Kyiv
City. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strike killed at least 11 people, injured at least
135 people in Kyiv City alone, and extensively damaged residential and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv
City and Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Russia's ever-growing nightly
strikes against Ukraine have been and remain a clear Russian rejection of Trump's calls for peace in
Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 31
that Russian forces completed the seizure of Chasiv Yar, although available geolocated footage does not
support claims that Russian forces have yet advanced to the western administrative boundary of the
town.
• Russian forces have taken 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from the western boundary
of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May 2023, to western Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces
will likely complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar in the coming days, which will open several possible
avenues for Russian forces to attack Ukraine's fortress belt — a series of fortified cities that form the
backbone of Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russia has launched a
simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump's efforts to end Russia's war in
Ukraine.
• The Kremlin's nuclear threats and rhetorical efforts to delay peace negotiations
are part of a broader cognitive campaign to undermine US-led efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a decisive enabler of devastating long-range Russian
strikes against the Ukrainian rear.
• European and US sanctions appear to be degrading Russian
revenues from third-country importers of Russian oil.
• Russia continues to look to its small
coalition of international partners to lend legitimacy to its illegal occupation and annexation of
Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces continue to innovate technical solutions to offset Russian strike
adaptations.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on July 31 designed to
safeguard the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption
Prosecutor's Office (SAP).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast
and near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk,
and Pokrovsk.
US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to Russia presumably
in response to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev's July 31 nuclear threats
against the United States. Trump stated on August 1 that he ordered American military authorities to
position two US nuclear submarines "in the appropriate regions" following Medvedev's "highly provocative
statements." Trump stated that he gave the order "just in case foolish and inflammatory statements
are more than just that." Trump previously stated on July 31 that Medvedev should "watch
his words" and is "entering very dangerous territory." Medvedev responded to Trump on July 31 on both his
English- and Russian-language Telegram accounts and threatened that Russia is "doing everything right"
and will continue along its own path. Medvedev also alluded to Russia's automatic or semi-automatic
nuclear weapons control system, referred to as the "Dead Hand" or the "Perimeter," in response to Trump.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio answered a journalist's question on July 31 about Medvedev's nuclear
threat, stating that one cannot ignore Medvedev's statement. Rubio stated that Medvedev is not a
"relevant decision maker," but he still has a role in the Russian government, so "his words are going to
have impact" as a "provocateur."
The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the United
States prior to the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1 – demonstrating that
Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling campaign. Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke to journalists on August 1 in a likely
staged event to publicly promote the Kremlin's narratives and stances about its war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko criticized Trump's recent efforts to bring Russia to the negotiating table and find a way to
end the war. Lukashenko claimed that Trump must act "carefully" and that it is not possible for Trump to
"dictate the rules" during the ongoing military clash, "especially to a nuclear power" like Russia.
Kremlin officials and their affiliates often use nuclear saber-rattling as part of their reflexive
control campaign that aims to push the West to make decisions that benefit Russia. The Kremlin had also
repeatedly used staged interactions with Lukashenko to deliver indirect nuclear threats. Medvedev's July
31 nuclear threats are also part of these reflexive control efforts, as Putin often leverages Medvedev to
amplify inflammatory rhetoric designed to stoke panic and fear among Western decision-makers and
discourage aid to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Medvedev's provocative and threatening statements
are very likely part of a top-down, concerted Kremlin informational strategy. Putin would be able to
censor Medvedev's statements should Putin choose to do so, especially considering that the Kremlin
coordinates official statements and controls the Russian information space, internet, and media.
Key Takeaways:
• US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two US nuclear
submarines closer to Russia presumably in response to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry
Medvedev's July 31 nuclear threats against the United States.
• The Kremlin continued its
nuclear threats against the United States before the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on
August 1 – demonstrating that Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling
campaign.
• Putin reiterated on August 1 the same demands that he first laid out in June 2024
– further demonstrating Russia's uncompromising position and disinterest in negotiating to end its war
against Ukraine.
• Putin attempted to frame peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as
making progress while blaming Ukraine for slowing the speed of negotiations.
• Putin's and
Lukashenko's August 1 statements underscore Putin's continued commitment to his theory of victory, which
assumes that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine and will be able to seize the entirety of
Ukraine through slow and costly advances.
• Putin and Lukashenko highlighted recent Russian
advances in Donetsk Oblast and articulated Russia's desire to seize Ukraine's fortress belt, which ISW
continues to assess as a multi-year effort.
• Putin and Lukashenko projected military strength
and economic stability as part of Putin's ongoing effort to convince Trump that sanctions and military
support to Ukraine will not alter the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that Trump should abandon his
efforts to resolve the war.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be transforming
Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the
Russian population as the Kremlin prolongs the war in Ukraine and prepares for a future war with NATO.
• Russia continues to field long-range drone innovations to facilitate its ongoing long-range
strike campaign and impose greater civilian casualties on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently
advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near
Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia on the
night of August 1 to 2. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on August 2 that it conducted a
drone strike against the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan City, one of the four largest refineries
in Russia. The USF reported that the drone strike started a large-scale fire at the refinery and caused
significant damage to its production facilities. The USF reported that the facility produces about
840,000 tons of TS-1 aviation kerosene per year — about 8.4 percent of Russia's total TS-1 production —
and produces up to 17 million tons of oil per year, or 6.1 percent of Russia's total oil refining. Ryazan
Oblast Governor Pavel Malkov claimed on August 2 that Russian air defenses and electronic warfare (EW)
systems downed drones over the oblast and that drone debris fell on an unspecified enterprise. The USF
stated that it also conducted a drone strike against the Annanefteproduct oil depot in Anna, Voronezh
Oblast, which can receive petroleum products from up to 50 railway tanks and handle up to 160,000 tons of
light petroleum products per year. Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev claimed that falling drone
debris started a fire at an unspecified building in the oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on
August 2 that Ukrainian forces struck Rosneft's Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery near Samara City. Geolocated
footage published on August 2 shows a drone strike and subsequent explosion at the Novokuybyshevsk oil
refinery. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev claimed that falling drone debris killed one
person in Kuybyshevsky Raion. Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi reported on August 2 that Ukrainian drones
struck the Likhaya-Zamchalovo traction power substation at a Russian rear supply base near Uglerodovsky,
Rostov Oblast. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data shows heat anomalies in the
area. Rostov Oblast Acting Governor Yury Slyusar claimed that an unspecified enterprise caught fire in
Uglerodovsky.
Ukrainian outlet Kyiv Post reported that its sources within Ukraine's Main
Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that an explosion disabled a section of Gazprom's Central
Asia-Center pipeline in Volgograd Oblast that transports natural gas from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan
and Kazakhstan into Russia. The GUR sources did not specify the cause of the explosion. The pipeline
reportedly supplies several Russian defense industrial enterprises.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia on the
night of August 1 to 2.
• Ukraine also conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against
Russia's defense industrial base (DIB), drone launch sites, and air defense systems on the night of
August 1 to 2.
• The Kremlin has yet to employ a coordinated response to US President Donald
Trump’s August 1 announcement that he ordered the deployment of two US nuclear submarines closer to
Russia.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov parroted many of the same talking points that
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made during a press event
on August 1 that blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in negotiations and signaled Russia's unyielding
commitment to its longstanding demands.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka
and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on August 3. Geolocated imagery shows a fire at
the Rosneft Kubannefteprodukt Oil Depot in Adler, Krasnodar Krai. Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin
Kondratyev acknowledged that a Ukrainian drone strike caused the fire and that the fire engulfed several
fuel tanks at the depot. A Ukrainian Telegram channel also published a photo on August 3 purportedly
showing an oil refinery on fire in Kstovo, Nizhnyi Novgorod. Nizhnyi Novgorod Oblast Governor claimed
that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian drone strike on the night of August 2 to 3.
Russia is
reportedly preparing to expand its use of occupied Ukraine to launch Shahed-type drone strikes against
Ukraine. A Ukrainian Telegram channel reported on August 2 that satellite imagery of the airport in
northern occupied Donetsk City from July 2025 shows that Russian authorities have partially cleared the
fortifications on the runway and started construction work at the parking lots, possibly in preparation
for the installation of fuel tanks. Ukrainian open-source intelligence group CyberBoroshno reported that
the satellite imagery suggests that Russian occupation authorities are building closed storage areas near
the destroyed airport terminal and are preparing manual drone control points, warhead unloading areas,
air surveillance posts, and a runway. CyberBoroshno assessed that Russian occupation authorities are
developing infrastructure at the airport to launch Shahed-type strike drones, Gerbera-type decoy drones,
and possibly Geran (Shahed) jet-powered drones. Long-range drone launch sites closer to the frontline
will reduce the reaction time for Ukrainian air defenses. Russian forces have been launching long-range
strike drones from occupied Ukraine, and Russia's continued use of occupied Ukraine for such strikes will
increasingly threaten Ukraine and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states if Russia continues to
occupy Ukrainian territory.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot
in Krasnodar Krai on August 3.
• Russia is reportedly preparing to expand its use of occupied
Ukraine to launch Shahed-type drone strikes against Ukraine.
• Russia appears to be trying to
better protect its air bases after multiple years of Ukrainian strikes against the Russian rear.
• Russian intelligence services appear to be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage
operations in Europe.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General
Anatoliy Kryvonozhko as the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force on August 3.
• Ukrainian
forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman,
Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions.
Kremlin officials are slowly organizing a coordinated response to US President Donald Trump's August 1
statement that the United States would redeploy two nuclear submarines closer to Russia.
Key
Takeaways:
Kremlin officials are slowly organizing a coordinated response to US President
Donald Trump's August 1 statement that the United States would redeploy two nuclear submarines closer to
Russia. The Kremlin also responded to Trump's August 1 announcement by trying to downplay Medvedev's
role in Russian decision-making in order to obfuscate the role Medvedev plays in Putin's information
efforts targeting the West. Russian authorities continue to intensify the use of bribery charges,
including to scapegoat regional government officials responsible for Russia's border defense and target
defense industry officials and critical information space actors. Ukrainian forces recently advanced
near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and
Velykomykhailivka.
Private and public Kremlin statements indicate that Russian President Vladimir
Putin continues to demand the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before he
will initiate a peace agreement. Helping Ukraine inflict battlefield setbacks on Russian forces
remains essential to efforts to persuade Putin to reevaluate his position on the war and negotiations. The Kremlin insider sources likely leaked this information in an attempt to obfuscate Putin's actual,
more extreme war aims. The Kremlin also likely intends for these leaks to Western media to advance
its ongoing effort to break Ukrainian and Western morale. Putin has intentionally put himself in a
position where he cannot present any peace settlement that falls short of his original war aims as a
victory to the Russian military or people. Russia announced on August 4 that it will withdraw from
the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, likely as a rhetorical response to US President
Donald Trump's August 1 announcement about the redeployment of US nuclear submarines toward Russia.
Russia's INF Treaty withdrawal does not portend a shift in Russia's use of shorter- and
intermediate-range missiles, however. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian
forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, and Toretsk.
Putin met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Moscow on August 6, but concrete
results from the meeting remain unclear
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir
Putin met with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Moscow on August 6, but concrete
results from the meeting remain unclear. Trump may meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky in the coming weeks. Certain Russian commentators are attempting to stoke schisms within
the Trump administration, likely as part of a wider effort to avoid US sanctions ahead of Trump's stated
August 8 deadline for peace efforts in Ukraine. Russian officials and media continue to project an
image of a strong and resilient Russian economy in anticipation of further US sanctions. US
President Donald Trump formally imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on India’s exports to the United
States due to India’s ongoing economic cooperation with Russia. Russian forces likely advanced to
the western outskirts of Kupyansk and secured positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian ground
lines of communication (GLOCs) into the town. The US State Department approved a $104 million
Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Ukraine. A Russian servicemember recently executed a Ukrainian
civilian in occupied Donetsk Oblast in clear violation of international law. Ukrainian forces
advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv and western Zaporizhia oblasts and
near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are actively achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) of Ukrainian
ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling Russian
advances in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces are actively achieving some effects of
battlefield air interdiction (BAI) of Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with tactical
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. BAI is the use of air
power to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near
term.<3> These operationally significant targets include roads, railways, and bridges (infrastructure
that supports GLOCs); command posts; ammunition depots; assembly areas; and training grounds. In simple
terms, BAI aims to deny the adversary the use of crucial logistics lines and facilities necessary to
sustain battlefield operations.
US and Russian officials continue to provide updates about a possible meeting between US President Donald
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future, but exact details remain uncertain.
Key Takeaways:
US and Russian officials continue to provide updates about a possible
meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future, but
exact details remain uncertain. Putin may have used his meeting with Witkoff to propose a long-range
strikes moratorium, which would allow Russia to stockpile long-range drones and missiles and renew
devastating large-scale strikes against Ukraine after the moratorium expires. A strikes moratorium will
also handicap Ukraine's ability to continue its long-range strike campaign aimed at attriting the Russian
defense industrial base and wartime economy. Russia has significantly scaled up its drone and
missile production in 2025, allowing Russia to rapidly increase the size of its strike packages that it
launches against Ukraine. Putin likely claimed to Witkoff that Russia's territorial ambitions are
limited to the seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Putin is likely attempting
to frame Russia's seizure of the four oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to
capitulate to Kremlin demands. Russia's occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor
imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year
endeavors. Russian objectives are not limited to the occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and
Kherson oblasts, however, despite Kremlin attempts to frame Russia's war aims as such in an effort to
make its demands seem more reasonable. Russia has not abandoned its more extensive, original war aims. Putin's war aims are also not limited to territory. The Kremlin is engaged in a delicate balancing
act between feigning interest in negotiations to Trump and conditioning Russian society to accept nothing
short of Putin's desired full victory in Ukraine, no matter how long it takes. Russian forces
advanced in the Toretsk direction and likely completed the seizure of Toretsk.
Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia
strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as
part of a ceasefire agreement. The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a
ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would position Russian forces
extremely well to renew their attacks on much more favorable terms, having avoided a long and bloody
struggle for the ground. Conceding such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its "fortress belt," the
main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — with no guarantee that fighting will not
resume. Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress
belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities. Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are
engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete. Ceding
Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast will place Russian forces on the borders of Donetsk Oblast, a
position that is significantly less defensible than the current line. Russian positions along the
Donetsk-Kharkiv and Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border areas would provide a more advantageous
launching point for a future Russian offensive into nearby areas of Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire or peace
agreement and renew military aggression against Ukraine in the future unless a peace agreement includes
robust monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Ukraine. Putin's reported proposal once
again underscores that he maintains his uncompromising demands for Ukraine's capitulation and remains
disinterested in good-faith negotiations. The Kremlin does not appear to be setting the domestic
information conditions necessary for the Russian people to accept a settlement short of full victory in
Ukraine. Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk. Russian forces advanced near Lyman,
Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
The Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin's reported demands for a
ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6. The exact details of Putin's position remain
unclear.
German outlet BILD reported on August 9 that US Special Envoy for the Middle East
Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's demand for Ukraine to withdraw from the remainder of Zaporizhia and
Kherson oblasts, in addition to the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, as an offer for Russia to withdraw from
occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts during the August 6 Putin-Witkoff meeting.<1> BILD reported that
Witkoff also misunderstood Putin's proposal for an energy infrastructure and long-range strikes
ceasefire, and that Witkoff interpreted Putin's offer as a general ceasefire that would curtail frontline
military activity.
Key Takeaways:
The Trump Administration has described Russian
President Vladimir Putin's reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since
August 6. The exact details of Putin's position remain unclear. The only element of Putin's reported
position common to all reports is Putin's continued demand for Ukraine to withdraw from unoccupied areas
of Donetsk Oblast — a major Ukrainian concession. Ukrainian and European officials reportedly
presented a counterproposal to US officials on August 9 as European officials continue to issue
statements of support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russian officials
welcomed the announcement that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet
in Alaska on August 15 and referenced Russian narratives about Russia's historical claims to Alaska. Ukraine continues its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and defense industrial
base (DIB) facilities. Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)
replaced Northern Grouping of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General
Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov. Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk.
Demnächst wird Trump noch für Kriegsverlängerung eintreten weil das so ein tolles Geschäft für die USA
ist. WW1 all over again.
The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe,
not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine
Key
Takeaways:
The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United
States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine. US President Donald Trump is
reportedly considering a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky during the August 15 summit in Alaska. The Kremlin is attempting to use the
upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace
efforts. Ukraine's European allies continue to signal their support for Ukraine and US-led peace
efforts ahead of the Alaska summit. Russian tank losses appear to be declining as Russian forces
continue to deprioritize mechanized assaults across the frontline, indicating that the Russian command
recognizes that it cannot protect vehicles from Ukrainian drone strike capabilities on the frontline and
near rear. Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and
energy infrastructure overnight on August 9 to 10, including the first drone strike against a target in
the Komi Republic. Ukrainian drone manufacturers have developed a new drone capable of intercepting
higher-speed Russian drones. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.
Trump expressed the United States' willingness to facilitate substantive peace negotiations between
Russia and Ukraine
Key Takeaways:
US President Donald Trump expressed the United
States' willingness to facilitate substantive peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in an effort
to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine. Trump signaled that the United States would aim to return
some of Ukraine's economically and strategically significant territories during the peace negotiations
process. Trump indicated that Putin's fear of the impact of US sanctions against Russia and Russia's
economic partners drove Putin to propose a bilateral summit. Putin's decision to reach out
immediately before Trump imposed further economic restrictions against Russia or its trading partners
undermines the Kremlin's ongoing narrative that sanctions have not and will not affect the Russian
economy. Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that Russia is unwilling to compromise and remains
committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine. Russian officials and media are also
setting informational conditions for Russia to renege on any future peace agreement to end the war. Putin may try to use the prospect of US-Russian arms control talks to gain concessions from Trump about
the war in Ukraine in the August 15 meeting in Alaska. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups
are reportedly infiltrating areas near Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk), and Russian forces likely
recently advanced southeast of the settlement. Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike
campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure overnight on August 10 to 11. Russian
forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of
Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups
Key Takeaways:
Russian
forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of
Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be
able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face
obstacles in trying to do so. Russian milbloggers, who often overinflate Russian advances,
questioned Russia's ability to exploit the tactical penetration. The Russian tactical penetration in
the Dobropillya direction was not immediate but came rather after months of Russian preparation and
condition setting using new drone innovations and tactics at scale. Russian advances in the Pokrovsk
direction are also only the most recent result of over 17 months’ worth of protracted campaigning. Russian officials are attempting to exploit the tactical penetration near Dobropillya to influence the
upcoming US-Russia summit in Alaska, but the Kremlin's overall strategic objective is to break the will
of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe to achieve Russia's longstanding demand for full Ukrainian
capitulation. Ukrainian intelligence indicated that North Korea recently deployed 11,000 soldiers to
Russia to facilitate Russia's war effort in Ukraine, further demonstrating Russia's commitment to leaning
on its anti-Western partners to protract the war in Ukraine. Russian forces recently advanced near
Velykyi Burluk, Borova, and Pokrovsk.
The Critical Importance of Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run
north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over
380,537 people. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington,
D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland).
• Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and
effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive
infrastructure in and around these cities.
• Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half
of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in Donetsk
Oblast. Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress
belt.
• Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these
cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk,
Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014.
• Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022
and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts
to reinforce the fortress belt cities.
• Russian forces are currently still attempting to
envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely
take several years to complete.
Russian officials reiterated that Russia's objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged ahead of the Alaska
summit on August 15, once again demonstrating that the Kremlin remains uninterested in pursuing serious
peace negotiations
Key Takeaways:
Russian officials reiterated that Russia's
objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged ahead of the Alaska summit on August 15, once again demonstrating
that the Kremlin remains uninterested in pursuing serious peace negotiations. The Trump
administration clarified that the United States will not pursue any agreements with Russia regarding a
peace settlement in Ukraine without an immediate ceasefire and without Ukraine's formal involvement in
peace negotiations. Trump reiterated US interest in facilitating future Ukraine-Russia peace
negotiations and warned that Russia would face "very severe consequences" if Putin fails to engage in
serious peace talks with Ukraine after the Alaska summit. The Kremlin is using the Alaska summit to
portray Russia as a world power equal to the United States and to posture Putin as an equal to US
President Donald Trump. Russia is reportedly preparing to conduct further offensive operations in
priority sectors of the frontline and to resume limited offensives in southern Ukraine, particularly in
Kherson Oblast. Russia is simultaneously preparing to continue its long-range drone strike campaign
against Ukrainian rear areas, which will likely result in further civilian casualties. Russian
forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Russian and
Ukrainian sources continued on August 13 to characterize the Russian penetration as consisting of
limited, dismounted sabotage and reconnaissance groups. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces
do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated.
ISW's Assessed Russian Advances map layer does not differentiate between enduring Russian positions and
limited infiltration missions. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue attempts to
infiltrate Pokrovsk as Russian forces heavily strike the town. The Kremlin is likely using the
upcoming Zapad-2025 joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises to facilitate its nuclear saber-rattling
campaign ahead of the Alaska summit. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast
and western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Lyman and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern
Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.
Russian and US officials further clarified the details of the upcoming August 15 Alaska summit
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin is likely to use the Alaska summit to try to deflect attention
away from peace negotiations with Ukraine and towards the Russia-US relationship in order to court the
Trump administration into offering Moscow sorely needed economic rapprochement. The Kremlin is
coming to Alaska with a severely weakened domestic economy, which affords the Trump administration
significant leverage during the summit. US President Donald Trump expressed concerns about the
success of a potential secondary meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian
President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin is also likely to try to distract from the war in Ukraine by
pressuring the Trump administration to engage in bilateral arms control talks at the Alaska summit. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) reported that the July
2025 civilian casualties from Russia's war against Ukraine were the highest on record since May 2022. Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation. ISW
continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya
where Russian forces recently infiltrated. Ukraine's European partners continue to provide military
aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons. Ukraine and Russia conducted their
67th prisoner exchange of the war on August 14. Ukrainian forces struck a large oil refinery in
Volgograd Oblast on the night of August 13 to 14. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast
and near Lyman, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velykomykhailivka.
US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint
Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15. Putin said nothing in the joint press
conference to indicate that he has moderated either his war aims or his willingness to compromise on them
and reiterated language he has used since 2021 to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Trump
stated that the United States and Russia did not come to a firm agreement about the war in Ukraine. Russia conducted drone and missile strikes in Ukraine in the hours before the August 15 Alaska summit,
causing civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian officials continue to
indicate that Ukrainian counterattacks are stabilizing the situation east and northeast of Dobropillya
(northwest of Pokrovsk). The Russian military command is reportedly trying to redeploy forces and
means to reinforce and exploit the penetration near Dobropillya but has so far been unsuccessful. Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and energy
infrastructure overnight on August 14 to 15. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.
Various US officials indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be
willing to compromise on some war termination demands, but Putin's own statements and Russian official
statements contradict these claims. It is unclear what Putin offered in his meeting with Trump
beyond reiterating his demand for Donetsk Oblast and offering a limited ceasefire with no known timeframe
in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Putin’s demand for all of Donetsk Oblast is the most clear and
consistent demand coming out of the Alaska Summit. Ukrainian forces would not be able to conduct a
safe and orderly withdrawal from unoccupied Donetsk Oblast in accordance with Putin's demand without a
full ceasefire across the entire theater, however ISW continues to assess that a potential Ukrainian
withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast would degrade Ukraine's defensive capabilities and defense industrial base
(DIB) and put hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian civilians under Russian occupation. Ukraine would
require robust international security guarantees and the immediate deployment of an international
peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. Seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast
would likely be a difficult and years-long effort for Russian forces rather than a quick effort as Putin
likely aims to portray, as Russian forces remain unable to secure operationally significant advances or
advance faster than foot pace. Putin's reported rejection of a full ceasefire in Ukraine and the
ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts indicate that Putin intends to continue his war in
Ukraine while negotiations are ongoing — a point that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry
Medvedev welcomed. The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian media outlets to present the Alaska
summit as a meeting between two superpowers and to prepare Russian society for the possibility of a
protracted war in Ukraine. Russian officials continue rhetorical campaigns designed to undermine
Ukraine's sovereignty and peace negotiations and to legitimize Russia's war in Ukraine. Ukrainian
forces likely cleared several settlements within the Russian penetration northeast of Dobropillya. Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Siversk.
US officials acknowledged that Putin has yet to demonstrate a willingness to
offer the concessions necessary to reach a peace agreement. Russia will be unable to seize the
remainder of Donetsk Oblast rapidly through force, as Russian forces have failed to do for over a decade.
Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws
from the remainder of the oblast. Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly
campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine, a reality far from Putin's claims of
rapid advances. Recent Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk do not indicate that Russia can
rapidly seize fortified or urban areas. Russia continues to deny Ukraine's sovereignty and to demand
the right to dictate Ukrainian domestic affairs. Russian President Vladimir Putin's insistence that
any peace agreement must address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war will make it difficult to
reach a peace agreement as rapidly as Trump desires, given the complexity of the "root causes." Russia's "root causes" extend beyond Ukraine, and eliminating them would require substantial
negotiations with NATO. Putin's offer of a Russian law forbidding a future invasion of Ukraine is
not credible because Russia has already twice broken previous binding international commitments not to
invade and because Putin has shown that he can freely change Russian law as he desires. The details
about Ukrainian security guarantees to which Putin may have agreed remain unclear at this time, but the
Kremlin may be attempting to resurrect its demands about security guarantors from April 2022 that would
have neutered such guarantees. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near
Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
># Russische Truppen verhöhnen Trump nach Alaska-Gipfel > >Schon wieder falsch
(gefakt) kommentiert. >Es sollte bedeuten: >Ein Zeichen des Dankes an Trump für seinen
Einsatz. > >Man will das gemeine Volk wirklich für >blöd verkaufen.
Jetzt werden sie verarscht auch noch die Ukrainer.
>Ein Zeichen des Dankes an Trump für seinen Einsatz. Die Truppen danken Trump, dass sie jetzt
noch schneller verheizt werden? Oder meinst du, dass es von oben angeordnet ist und Putin dankt
Trump dafür, dass er nach seiner Pfeife tanzt? Also doch verhöhnen?
The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level
meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral
summit. Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to
ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit. Russian officials largely rejected Europe's
proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement. Western leaders expressed
support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and
Putin. Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in
civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings. Russian budgetary constraints are
forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers
for its war in Ukraine. Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya
direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks. A Russian servicemember recently
murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman,
Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accurately stated that the Kremlin's
objective in Ukraine is to politically control all of Ukraine rather than to seize select Ukrainian
territories such as Donetsk Oblast.
• Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 after
failing to secure control over Ukraine by other means.
• Russia similarly seeks to exert
influence over the internal governance of other former Soviet countries, including NATO states,
effectively denying their sovereignty and setting conditions to threaten their independent governance. • Lavrov implicitly rejected suggestions that Russia might accept Western security guarantees for
Ukraine.
• Russian forces appear to be attempting to counterattack Ukrainian forces clearing
the Russian infiltration near Dobropillya as Ukrainian forces increasingly threaten the base of the
penetration.
• Russian infiltration tactics and a low manpower density along the frontline in
the Pokrovsk direction have seemingly allowed Russian forces to restore limited, tactical maneuver east
and southeast of Dobropillya —at least temporarily.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted another
exchange of the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on August 19.
• Ukrainian
authorities implicated a soldier of the Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in the executions of two
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast in Summer 2024.
• Ukrainian
forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and
Toretsk.
The Kremlin is demanding that Russia have a veto over any Western security
guarantees for Ukraine in an effort to undermine ongoing US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to establish
conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine. The Kremlin appears to be demanding that any security
guarantees be based on those proposed in the Istanbul 2022 framework, which would grant Russia and its
allies the right to veto Western military assistance to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of
future Russian threats. The Kremlin is continuing to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin
is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the
timeline proposed by US President Donald Trump. The Russian economy continues to face budget
deficits as a result of increased defense spending and detrimental effects of Western sanctions and
secondary tariffs. Secondary tariffs are likely forcing Russia to sell oil below market price, which
could be decreasing the incoming flow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and depleting Russia’s
primary source of wealth. The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing Russian Investigative
Committee (Sledkom) Chairman Alexander Bastrykin, likely as part of the Kremlin's efforts to form a new
and younger elite. Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy
Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
The Kremlin continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul negotiations are the
only acceptable departure point for potential future negotiations on the war in Ukraine, thereby
demanding that Russia and its allies reserve the right to veto any Western military assistance to Ukraine
and that Ukraine be left neutered and defenseless against future Russian aggression. The Kremlin
continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and reveal its continued
objectives of seizing control of all of Ukraine. Russia is expending considerable diplomatic effort
to court India, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to fear the impact of secondary sanctions. Russia launched the third largest strike of the war thus far against Ukraine on the night of August 20
to 21, targeting Western regions of Ukraine and causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to innovate and scale production of long-range
weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirmed that it replaced former Northern
Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with
Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov. Ukrainian forces
recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.
The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is
unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian officials continue to deflect blame for the lack of Putin-Zelensky meeting and Ukraine-Russia
peace negotiations by rejecting the legitimacy of Ukraine's democratically elected government. Ukraine continued its strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure in Russia and
occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities returned Ukrainian civilians whom Russian authorities
deported from occupied areas of Ukraine to a checkpoint on the Russia-Georgia border. Ukrainian
forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in
northern Sumy and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Novopavlivka.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues to spell out Russian
President Vladimir Putin's rejection of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on US
President Donald Trump's preferred timeline. The Russian MFA's statement that Lavrov is not
undermining the peace process because Lavrov is executing Putin's foreign policy directives is an
accurate assertion that Putin himself is the impediment to the peace process. Putin continues
efforts to obtain concessions from the United States in the US-Russian bilateral relationship without
meaningfully engaging in the peace process in Ukraine. Trump expressed frustration with the current
state of peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign
targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in
tandem are impacting Russia's fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues. The Kremlin is likely
escalating its hybrid campaign involving GPS and communications jamming against NATO states bordering
Russia. A former Russian servicemember confirmed ISW's assessment that echelons of the Russian
military command on the battlefield are actively ordering subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of
war (POWs). Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an English-language interview with
a US outlet to reiterate the Kremlin's explicit rejection of US-proposed initiatives for peace in
Ukraine. Lavrov continued efforts to mischaracterize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the
impediment to an enduring peace in Ukraine, in order to distract from the Kremlin's own unwillingness to
compromise or engage in negotiations on US President Donald Trump's proposed timeline. Lavrov denied
that Russia violated past international treaties prohibiting Russia from invading Ukraine and rejected
Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine in the future. Ukrainian forces struck Russian energy
infrastructure in Leningrad and Samara oblasts on the night of August 23 to 24. Ukraine's Western
partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons. Ukraine and Russia conducted another prisoner exchange that included a limited number of Ukrainian
journalists and government officials on August 24. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk,
and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian developers continue to
introduce and test new kinetic anti-drone measures such as drone interceptors, thermal imaging sighting
systems, and lasers. Russian and Ukrainian forces are racing to create “smart minefields” by
developing complex mining systems. Russia is reportedly collaborating with the People’s Republic of
China (PRC) to develop an automated command and control (C2) system for amphibious operations. The
Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies reportedly developed new unmanned surface
vehicles (USVs). Russian Unmanned Systems Tactics
Russian forces are reportedly
conducting an echeloned deployment of first-person view (FPV) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) interceptor
systems in Ukraine, which may be enabling Russian advances. Russia reportedly established the first
drone control center in Kamchatka Peninsula. Russian Defense Industrial Base
Russian
recruiters are continuing to recruit Russian and Central Asian children and teenagers to construct the
Alabuga factory and produce drones at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The Kremlin
officially extended tax benefits for some Russian drone manufacturers to incentivize Russian development
and production of tactical drones.
Ukrainian forces continue to pressure the Russian penetration east and
northeast of Dobropillya. The Russian military command has reportedly given up efforts to exploit
the penetration toward Dobropillya, after Russia's infiltration tactics appear to have been unsuccessful
in establishing enduring positions within this penetration. Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov
is likely to become the Chairperson of the Russian Supreme Court, reportedly after Investigative
Committee (Sledkom) Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin refused the Kremlin's offer to assume this
position. Russian authorities recently detained Acting Kursk Oblast Vice Governor Vladimir Bazarov,
likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for Russian border
security failures. Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including
through the purchase of US weapons and joint production ventures. Ukrainian forces recently advanced
in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk,
Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The United States is reportedly willing to supply supporting assets to a
European-led force grouping as part of postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin has
repeatedly rejected the presence of troops from NATO countries as part of any security guarantee for
Ukraine in recent weeks. The United States will impose an additional 25 percent tariff on India’s
exports to the United States due to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. Recent Ukrainian
strikes on Russia’s oil refineries have contributed to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely
raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia. The Russian government
proposed that Russian President Vladimir Putin withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention
of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. Russian residents in border areas are
increasingly apathetic toward the war and accepting that Russia will not agree to an end to the war in
the near future. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Sumy and Borova. Russian forces recently
advanced near Sumy.
Limited Russian tactical forces recently infiltrated Ukrainian defenses in two
border settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but have not established enduring positions in the area. Russian forces are using infiltration tactics in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast similar to those they used near
Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) in early August 2025. The Kremlin appears to be resuming its
drone and missile strike campaign targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025, likely
in an effort to undermine Ukrainian will to resist Russian aggression. The Kremlin is attempting to
undermine US and European joint efforts to determine appropriate security guarantees for Ukraine by
seemingly demanding that Russia and the United States privately discuss such matters. The Kremlin
signaled that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to meet with Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky unconditionally. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's
continued support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and condemned the Soviet Red Army for "invading
and occupying" Azerbaijan in 1920 — further aggravating already deteriorating Russian-Azerbaijani
relations. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk and in eastern
Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russia killed at least 21 civilians, including children, and damaged civilian
infrastructure and European diplomatic facilities during the second largest strike of the war thus far
and the largest strike since the August 15 Alaska Summit on the night of August 27 to 28. Ukraine's
ongoing strike campaign targeting Russia’s oil refineries is contributing to gasoline shortages across
Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia. The
Russian information space responded to the Ukrainian strikes against the Afipsky and Kuibyshev refineries
and reiterated concerns about the poor performance of Russia's air defense systems near critical and
military infrastructure. Russian intelligence services are likely tracking US and European military
supply lines in Europe by conducting reconnaissance operations over NATO territory. Ukrainian forces
recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in
northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Lyman and Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russia reportedly leveraged the August 15 Alaska Summit in order to stall for a
planned Fall 2025 offensive, among other things. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov gave a
major speech at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium on August 29 and gave an update on the
ten priority directions for the Russian MoD. Belousov also discussed Russian battlefield progress in
Ukraine and exaggerated Russian gains in recent weeks. Belousov indicated that the Russian MoD has
shifted its priorities to produce light vehicles over heavy armored vehicles, reflecting Russian
battlefield tactics since Winter 2024–2025. Belousov stated that Russia continues to focus on
developing its Unmanned Systems Forces and drone production capacity. Belousov indicated that the
Russian MoD is expanding its efforts to digitalize Russian recruitment, likely as part of wider efforts
to augment Russia’s administrative capacity to handle conscription and mobilization processes. Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military assets and energy infrastructure in Russia and
occupied Ukraine. Ukraine’s ongoing strikes campaign against Russian oil infrastructure continues to
contribute to gasoline shortages in Russia. US and Ukrainian representatives met in New York City on
August 29 and reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for peace negotiations with Russia, including at the level
of heads of state. The US State Department approved a $825 million Foreign Military Sale (FMS) of
aviation ammunition and related equipment to Ukraine. Russian forces recently executed seven
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Myrolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently
advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk.
The Kremlin appears to have launched a coordinated informational effort
posturing military strength on the battlefield in order to shape Western thinking and falsely portray a
Russian victory as inevitable. The Kremlin's presentation of territorial gains statistics ignores
the significant losses that Russia is incurring and the gradual, creeping nature of Russia's advances —
painting an incomplete picture of Russian performance on the battlefield. Russia launched another
large-scale combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of August 29 to 30 — the third
combined strike with over 500 drones and missiles since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska. The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to demote a senior Kremlin official who reportedly advised
Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces
continue to strike Russian military and energy infrastructure in Russia Russian Investigative
Committee Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin will stay in his current position for another year following
reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin was considering moving Bastrykin to a new position. An
unknown assailant shot and killed former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Chairperson Andriy Parubiy in Lviv City
on August 30. A Russian servicemember recently murdered an elderly Ukrainian civilian in the
Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka, and Russian
forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
The Kremlin is pursuing a multi-pronged informational effort aimed at deterring
Western support for Ukraine and undermining European participation in the peace process. Russian
milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for exaggerating its battlefield
successes. The Kremlin is intensifying these information efforts because its territorial gains
remain disproportionately limited and slow relative to the high losses incurred. Ukrainian forces
advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk.
Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of
a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future. Russian
President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate his unwillingness to compromise on his unwavering
demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation. The Kremlin likely timed the publication of a video address
by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to coincide with Putin's SCO speech in order to lend
legitimacy to Putin's demand for regime change in Ukraine. Putin's demands for regime change in his
SCO speech are not new, but rather the reiteration of his pre-war demands that he has been pursuing
throughout the war. The Russian military command reportedly redeployed relatively "elite" naval
infantry and airborne (VDV) forces to Donetsk Oblast from northern Sumy Oblast and the Kherson
direction. The reported redeployments suggest that the Russian Fall 2025 offensive will focus on
efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and
Kostyantynivka areas. Likely Russian GPS jamming affected a plane carrying European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen on September 1. Ukraine reportedly conducted its first strike with
its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile on August 30 against occupied Crimea. Ukrainian authorities reportedly collected new evidence of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov
endorsing war crimes against Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). Ukrainian forces advanced near
Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin leveraged a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister
Robert Fico to pretend to offer marginal concessions to US demands while continuing to refuse to meet
actual US demands and while blaming Europe and the United States for provoking Russian aggression. Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral
Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future. Russia continues to
feel the economic impacts of secondary sanctions against Russian oil-and-gas importers and of recent
Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries. North Korea is reportedly planning to send about
6,000 more troops to Russia, likely to serve in supporting roles in the Russian rear. Ukrainian
forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently
advanced near Kupyansk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that he does not consider
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be the legitimate president of Ukraine, invalidating the very
basis of any future peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Putin himself is responsible for
Ukraine's inability to legally hold the referendums and elections for which Putin is calling. Putin
and other high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to explicitly and publicly state that they are
committed to achieving Russia's original war aims through military means. Putin underscored his
continued commitment to his theory of victory, a belief that Putin first outlined in June 2024, on
September 3. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to publicly deepen Belarusian
integration into Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to use footage showing a
small-scale infiltration mission to lend legitimacy to inflated claims by Russian Chief of the General
Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov on August 30 that Russian forces had seized roughly half of
Kupyansk. The Russian MoD's claims about Kupyansk have failed to convince large parts of the Russian
milblogger community, even Kremlin-affiliated and coopted milbloggers. The Kremlin appears to be
trying to exploit the mapping methodologies that have become widespread throughout the war, including
from OSINT sources like ISW. Russia launched another large-scale combined drone and missile strike
against Ukraine on the night of September 2 to 3—the fourth combined strike of over 500 drones and
missiles since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near
Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Key Takeaways The British and French-led Coalition of the Willing and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky met in Paris to discuss possible future security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to ensure a
just and lasting peace on September 4. Macron stated that a strong Ukrainian military must be at the
center of any postwar security guarantees. Macron stated that 26 states formally agreed to form a
“reassurance force” as part of security guarantees for postwar Ukraine. The Kremlin continues to
explicitly reject any foreign troops on Ukrainian territory as part of postwar security guarantees. The Coalition of the Willing also outlined ways for states that are unable to deploy ground, sea, or
air assets to participate in security guarantees for postwar Ukraine. The Coalition of the Willing
discussed additional sanctions against Russia with US President Donald Trump as part of coordinated
Western efforts to deny Russia funding for its war against Ukraine. Russian bankers continue to
express concerns over the increasingly stagnant Russian economy. Ukrainian forces advanced near
Kupyansk and Siversk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces advanced in
northern Sumy Oblast and near Velykomykhailivka.
Key Takeaways Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the legitimacy of Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky and said that it is impossible to conclude a peace agreement with the current
Ukrainian government, effectively eliminating the possibility of serious peace negotiations. Putin
and other Russian officials continue efforts to degrade Western unity and deter Western support for
Ukraine, including undermining potential postwar security guarantees. Ukrainian forces continue to
strike Russian military and energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Russian-Azerbaijani relations continue to deteriorate. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy
Oblast and near Siversk. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia
Oblast.
Ukrainian officials warned that the Russian military command is regrouping and
reinforcing its troops in western Donetsk Oblast, likely ahead of a major offensive operation. Russian forces are also attempting to interdict key Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in
western Donetsk Oblast in order to complicate Ukrainian logistics and enable further Russian advances
during future offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Recent geolocated footage indicates that Russian
forces have likely advanced into northwestern Kupyansk following the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)’s
efforts to falsely portray limited infiltrations as enduring advances. Ukrainian forces recently
advanced near Lyman and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, and
Velykomykhailivka.
Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine of
the war to date on the night of September 6 to 7 with 823 total projectiles. The Russian Ministry of
Defense (MoD) attempted to deny that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure across Ukraine or the
Cabinet of Ministers building within Kyiv City. Russian drone strike packages against Ukraine will
likely continue to expand as long as Russia is able to increase its long-range strike drone
production. Russia is continuing to expand its long-range strike drone production in part due to
support from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russia’s latest strikes against Ukraine further
demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in ending his war in Ukraine and
stopping the killing. Ukraine continued its attacks against military and oil infrastructure in
Russia on the night of September 6 to 7. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka
and Dobropillya tactical areas. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev directly threatened Finland
and used language that directly mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of
Ukraine. Medvedev’s threat against Finland is not unique but rather part of an ongoing Kremlin
effort to threaten NATO states and justify future Russian aggression. Russia continues to expand its
defense industrial base (DIB) and take measures to safeguard defense industrial enterprises against
long-range Ukrainian strikes. Russia is also reportedly increasing its production of FPVs with fiber
optic cables, which Russian forces have successfully leveraged in recent months to achieve some effects
of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) in Ukraine. The Kremlin appears set to institutionalize its
long-held practice of torturing and abusing Ukrainian civilian prisoners and prisoners of war (POWs). Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman. Russian forces advanced in the
Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian territorial gains have become less costly over the last four months
compared to Spring 2025 as Russian forces are sustaining a lower casualty rate per square kilometer
seized. Russian casualty rates per square kilometer peaked in the first four months of 2025 as
Russian forces fought to maintain the intensified pace of offensive operations they began in Fall
2024. Russian advances began to slow during the first four months of 2025 as Russian casualties
remained consistent, resulting in a higher Russian casualty rate between January and April 2025. Russian forces began to make quicker gains in May 2025 and have sustained a faster rate of advance over
the last four months as Russian casualties marginally decreased, although Russian forces continue to
advance at footpace. Russian casualty rates have likely decreased in Ukraine due to Russia’s renewed
emphasis on using UAVs to generate some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI), largely led by UAV
operators of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. Recent Russian polling
suggests that support among the Russian population for the war remains high despite growing casualties
and relatively slow advances on the battlefield. Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy
infrastructure. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a combined strike against three Russian
command posts in and near occupied Donetsk City on September 8. Russian State Duma officials are
engaging in a top-down Kremlin-organized effort to threaten Finland. Russian forces conducted a
strike against a mobile pension dispersal point in Donetsk Oblast that killed and wounded dozens of
mostly elderly civilians. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka
tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.
Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in
what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion. The large
number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional
Russian effort. At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones,
and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer
2025. Russian officials denied that the drones came from Russia and attempted to deflect blame onto
Ukraine. Belarusian officials attempted to deny any involvement in the Russian drone incursion
despite evidence that the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus. Russia is
likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying
lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance. Russia is likely also
attempting to limit or deter Western military aid to Ukraine. Russian milbloggers amplified various
narratives to refute Western reporting about the Russian violation of Polish airspace, many of which
cohered with official Russian and Belarusian responses. Ukraine’s Western partners continue to
pledge military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and
in the Dobropillya tactical area.
Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the
September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. Poland’s allies reiterated their
support for Poland following the drone incursion, condemning Russia for purposefully conducting the
incursion to test NATO readiness. Ukrainian officials responded to the drone incursion by drawing
parallels to Russian cycles of aggression and escalation against Ukraine and offered to share Ukraine’s
now-institutional counter-drone knowledge with Poland. The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize
the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of
a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe. Russian state media is acknowledging the growing
gasoline shortages in Russia but is downplaying the role that Ukraine’s deep strike campaign is playing
in generating these shortages. Sweden pledged additional military and financial assistance to
Ukraine. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Velykomykhailivka, and in the
Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian and Belarusian forces began the joint Zapad-2025 military exercises on
September 12 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia and
Belarus may have walked back efforts to use Zapad-2025 to support nuclear saber-rattling operations
against the West, at least temporarily. Belarusian and Russian officials blamed Poland for
overreacting to the threat of Russian aggression in response to Poland’s decision to close its border
with Belarus due to Zapad-2025. NATO announced the Eastern Sentry operation on September 12 in
response to the Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10. The
Russian Central Bank likely prematurely lowered its key interest rate for the third time since June 2025
in an attempt to maintain the facade of domestic economic stability. The lowering of the key interest
rate will likely continue to exacerbate Russia’s economic instability. Ukraine’s partners continue
to sanction Russia. Ukraine conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against energy
infrastructure in Leningrad and Smolensk oblasts on the night of September 11 to 12. US senators
Lindsey Graham, Richard Blumenthal, Katie Britt, and Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill to the US Senate on
September 11 to facilitate the return of Ukrainian children that Russia deported. Ukrainian forces
recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka,
and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian forces recently attempted to advance behind Ukrainian positions in
Kupyansk via an underground gas pipeline – the third time Russian forces have used this tactic so far in
the war. Russia’s repeated use of this tactic further indicates that Russian forces are improving their
ability to disseminate tactical lessons between various sectors of the front line. The international
community continues to condemn the recent Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace. Russian
and Belarusian officials continue to deflect responsibility for Russia’s recent drone incursion into
Polish airspace. Additional information about the Russian drone incursion undermines Nebenzya’s and
Tozik’s statements, however. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and
Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 13, days
after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10. Poland
authorized NATO reinforcements to deploy to Poland for Operation Eastern Sentry in response to the
September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion into Polish territory. Russian and Belarusian forces
continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises. Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike and
sabotage campaign against Russian oil, gas, railway, and military infrastructure in Russia and occupied
Crimea on the night of September 13 to 14. The Kremlin is facing a massive budget deficit and may
increase consumer taxes to compensate for the deficit rather than decreasing funding for its war machine,
passing the economic costs off as a sacrifice that the Russian population must accept to support Russia’s
war in Ukraine. Increasing the VAT could reverse any progress the Russian Central Bank may have made
against inflation while also failing to address any of the issues that will likely arise from prematurely
lowering the key interest rate. Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia
Oblast.
The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with
the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland. Russian and Belarusian forces
continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some
tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine. Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to
practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states. The September 12-14
gubernatorial elections in Russia further demonstrated the Kremlin’s grip on power throughout the
country. The Kremlin continues to build out a loyal cadre of elected officials from veterans of its
war against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian
forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the
Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16. Ukraine’s ongoing long-range
strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and
gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine. Ukraine
continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated
artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting
Ukrainian drone effectiveness. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to rhetorically
distance himself from Russia’s recent incursion into Polish airspace in an attempt to obfuscate the fact
that Belarus is de facto a cobelligerent in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russian forces recently
advanced near Kupyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in eastern Zaporizhia
Oblast.
The Trump administration reportedly approved its first European-financed foreign
military sales to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative. Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to engage in
negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation. The Kremlin is using the
threat of aggression to try to prevent European states from committing troops to postwar Ukraine as part
of Western security guarantees. Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s approval, pushed Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his senior Kremlin position
following years of disagreement with Putin’s policies about the war in Ukraine. Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) identified the base and commander of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced
Unmanned Technologies. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) command and staff military
exercises are occurring in Kyrgyzstan from September 17 to 20. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in
the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in
western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win a war of attrition against
Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine
and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage
in good-faith negotiations. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war
aims in Ukraine. The Kremlin is also attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into
normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s
desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine. The Kremlin
appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland. Lithuanian
authorities connected Russian military intelligence to several incidents of arson in Europe in late July
2024 that were likely part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign that aims to sow fear and discord
within Europe. Ukraine and Poland agreed on joint drone development and training mechanisms
following the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 9 to 10. The Kremlin will
likely introduce a quota to systematically appoint hand-selected veterans of the war in Ukraine to
positions in municipal, regional, and federal government in support of the Kremlin’s long-term campaign
to militarize Russian society. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly extended Russian Chief of
the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s military service for five more years, demonstrating how
Putin continues to retain an aging cadre of loyalists despite his stated efforts to raise a new, younger
elite. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia
Oblast.
Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19. European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive “drone wall” and provide military
support for Ukraine following Russia’s violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10. The
Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace. Russia is
reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western
sanctions. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of
civilians. Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia’s
handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Russian forces advanced in the
Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and near Lyman and
Novopavlivka.
Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir
Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition
against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his
strategy. Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely
seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into
the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in
Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026. Russian forces conducted one of the largest drone and
missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks on the night of September 19 to 20. Russia is
intensifying its efforts to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve by violating NATO members’
safety zones in the air domain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of
Ukraine’s managed weapons exports program. Russian commanders continue to order Russian forces to
execute Ukrainian civilians and commit acts of perfidy as part of an ongoing trend of Russian commanders
systematizing deliberate war crimes among Russian units. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy
Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman, Pokrovsk,
Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.
Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since
July 2025. The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a
strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025. Reports that Russia
is creating a strategic reserve further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war
against Ukraine but remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield and may be preparing
for a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia continues to test the
limits of NATO’s air defenses over the Baltic Sea as Russia increases the frequency of its violations of
NATO states’ airspace. Russian forces continue to develop drone technologies to increase the volume
and precision of strikes against the Ukrainian near rear to further complicate Ukrainian logistics. The Kremlin reportedly dismissed former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD)
Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin from military service. Lapin has proven to be an
incompetent commander throughout the war against Ukraine, but the Kremlin is likely punishing Lapin now
as part of its ongoing campaign to scapegoat and punish high ranking officials for their failure to repel
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024. Russian forces recently advanced near
Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will
adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in
February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same. Putin blamed the West for
undermining Russian-US arms cooperation and violating bilateral arms agreements—ignoring how Russia has
violated numerous multilateral and bilateral treaties in the past decades. Putin is attempting to
pressure the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement
and extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine, as ISW forecasted Russia would
in August 2025. Some Russian defense industrial enterprises are reportedly struggling to expand
their production and workforces due to economic constraints, while the Kremlin is prioritizing funding
for high-priority enterprises such as drone and missile manufacturers. The United Nations (UN)
reported that the number of casualties from Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians has
increased by 40 percent so far in 2025 as compared to 2024. Ukrainian forces may have targeted high
ranking Russian officials in a reported strike against occupied Crimea on the night of September 21 to
22. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently
advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fully
liberate all of its internationally recognized territory that Russia currently occupies, following a
bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly
(UNGA). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) publicly acknowledged Russia’s intent to advance
further into Kharkiv Oblast should Russian forces seize Kupyansk, supporting ISW’s assessment of Russia’s
operational intent. The Russian MoD’s September 23 statement undermines repeated Russian claims that
Russia’s main military objective and territorial demands in Ukraine are limited to Luhansk, Donetsk,
Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. The Russian MoD may be issuing this statement about Russian
operational intent to justify ongoing Russian operations to seize Kupyansk to Russian society and
frontline forces. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Novopavlivka and in the
Dobropillya tactical area and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern
Kharkiv Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Siversk.
The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to
stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine. Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign
intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly
identified. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace
negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law. Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom General
Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on September 24 that Russian forces are adapting technological innovations and
ground tactics in an attempt to restore maneuver to the battlefield. Russian jamming originating
from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane
flying to Lithuania on September 24. Ukrainian forces recently conducted a series of aerial and
naval drone strikes against Russia and occupied Crimea, including against Russian oil infrastructure and
drone production facilities. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the
Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk, in the
Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to artificially inflate its
claims of advance in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine
is inevitable. Russian forces are reportedly rearranging forces to prepare for offensive operations
across several sectors of the frontline but lack the forces and means required to sustain these
operations simultaneously. The Russian offensive in Kupyansk is reportedly vulnerable due to the
lack of sufficient forces to sustain simultaneous offensive operations against Kupyansk and several other
areas along the frontline. Russian officials privately admitted that Russia is responsible for the
September 19 incursion of three MiG-31 interceptor jets into Estonian airspace. Russian officials
continued attempts to convince the Trump administration to allow Russia to continue its war against
Ukraine unimpeded in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s September 23 comments emphasizing that
Ukraine has the ability to retake all of its territory. The Kremlin reportedly plans to allocate
less to national defense spending in 2026 than in 2025 but acknowledged that it is increasing some taxes
to fund “defense and security.” The Kremlin is likely looking for different avenues to raise funding
for defense and national security spending without aggravating existing socio-economic tensions. Russia continues to suffer from gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian forces advanced near Velykomykhailivka.
Russian forces advanced near Lyman and within the Dobropillya salient.
NATO jets recently scrambled in response to another Russian flight close to NATO
airspace as European states struggle with unidentified, likely Russian, drone activity in border areas
and near infrastructure. Ukraine’s European allies continue to respond to increasing Russian
aggression against Europe. Russian officials continue efforts to undermine Western support for
Ukraine and defensive measures against Russia. The United States is reportedly considering lifting
existing restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use US-produced weapons to strike legitimate military
targets located in Russian territory. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the
Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military
aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova absurdly blamed Ukraine on September 26 for the September 9 to 10
Russian drone incursion in Poland and the September 13 Russian drone incursion in Romania. European
officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace. Ukrainian forces
recently advanced in northern Sumy and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces recently advanced in
the Dobropillya tactical area and near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.
US Vice President JD Vance criticized Russia’s rejection of American invitations
to engage in bilateral or trilateral negotiations as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate their lack
of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine. Russian forces conducted the third largest
combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 27 to 28
with 643 total projectiles. European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating
within NATO airspace. Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians called for protests in Moldova following
the September 28 parliamentary election. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that
Russia will use its upcoming United Nations Security Council (UNSC) presidency to “review” the 1995
Dayton Accords in a likely effort to destabilize the Balkans and divide and distract Europe. Russian
forces recently advanced near Lyman and Novopavlivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual
fall conscription cycle on October 1. The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion)
on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures. The
Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased
restrictions on social media and internet access. US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg
acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory. Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with
Tomahawk missiles. European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO
airspace. The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the
September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are
preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days. Ukrainian forces advanced
near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman,
Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against
critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine. Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan
authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections. Ukraine’s European
allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial
base (DIB). European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European
military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in
counter-drone tactics. Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near
Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.
The Kremlin continues the parallel use of nuclear threats and economic
incentives to pressure the United States into normalizing US-Russian relations while explicitly rejecting
Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Russian shadow fleet oil tankers may be connected to the recent
incursions of unidentified drones operating in NATO airspace. The Russian command may be redeploying
elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division from the Kramatorsk direction to the Kherson direction. Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian
oil refineries. The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been disconnected
from the Ukrainian power grid for over a week as Russia sets conditions to imminently transfer the plant
to the Russian power grid. The European Commission (EC) announced a $4.7 billion aid package for
Ukraine using funds from frozen Russian assets. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya
tactical area and near Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to threaten Europe as part of a
multi-pronged informational effort to deter the West from responding to hostile Russian actions. Putin attempted to discourage the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by
downplaying their effectiveness and indirectly threatening the United States. Putin is attempting to
exaggerate Russian advances in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in
Ukraine is inevitable. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US President Donald Trump
approved intelligence sharing with Ukraine for long-range strikes against legitimate military targets
within Russia. To mitigate domestic panic over Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian
oil refineries, Russian officials attempted to downplay the reported US decision to increase intelligence
sharing with Ukraine. Russian military intelligence is likely conducting hybrid operations in
Poland, Germany, and Lithuania to sow fear and discord within NATO states, following indications of a
possible future Russian false-flag operation within Poland. Ukraine and Russia conducted another
prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with agreements reached during the June 2 bilateral
negotiations in Istanbul. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya
tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in
northern Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Key Takeaways Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on
the night of October 2 to 3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages. Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a
few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days. Russian forces are likely leveraging
recent upgrades to Russian ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defense
systems. Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European
officials continue to report unidentified drones operating in their airspace. The Kremlin continues
efforts to undermine Western-brokered peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, likely as part of a larger
campaign to divide and distract Europe. Norway and Ukraine’s European partners opened the largest
training center for Ukrainian military personnel in Poland on October 1. Ukrainian forces recently
advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv
Oblast.
German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and
military facilities. Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities, possibly as
part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war. Russian forces conducted a combined
missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy
infrastructure. Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries,
exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Russian forces recently
advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending
Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to
concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin is trying to prevent the
United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia
enjoys in its rear. Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Lviv
Oblast on the night of October 4 to 5 with 163 combined projectiles. The pro-Russian Georgian Dream
party secured widespread majorities in municipal elections in Georgia on October 4, sparking mass
protests that Georgian Dream officials tried to blame on Ukraine. Russia is likely leveraging its
close relations with Serbia and Republika Srpska to threaten to destabilize the Balkans and undermine
European cohesion. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition
setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. European officials continue to report drone sightings in European airspace. German officials
attributed recent drone flights over the Munich Airport to Russia. The Kremlin continues to deny
responsibility for recent drone incursions into NATO airspace. Russian forces conducted a fiber
optic first-person view (FPV) drone strike for the first time against Kramatorsk on October 5 —
furthering Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics within and near the fortress belt in Donetsk
Oblast. Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone strikes against Russian defense industrial
enterprises and oil refineries. Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine
on the night of October 5 to 6, striking a maternity hospital. The Ukrainian military continues to
transition to a corps structure. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, the Dobropillya
tactical area, and near Lyman. Russian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Velykyi
Burluk, Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk.
The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US
from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Leaked Russian estimates of Russian killed in action
(KIA) to wounded in action (WIA) rates in Ukraine underscore the impact of increased tactical drone usage
in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground advances and casualty evacuation. The
leaked estimates indicate that Russian forces suffered their highest casualties in the Pokrovsk,
Kupyansk, and Lyman directions between January and August 2025, reflecting command prioritization of
these sectors of the front. Russian forces appear able and willing to sustain these casualty rates
despite achieving limited tactical advances. European states continue to provide humanitarian and
military aid to Ukraine and conclude joint agreements with Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB). The Russian military command reportedly appointed Former Commander of the Russian Force Grouping in
Syria Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel as the deputy commander of the Northern Grouping of Forces. Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced in eastern
Zaporizhia Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas and near Siversk,
Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory,
which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for
Ukraine’s full capitulation. Putin acknowledged Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian
oil refineries amidst ongoing gasoline shortages and price surges in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to use defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to gain
concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s moves to withdraw from PMDA
likely immediately aim to prevent US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and are part of an ongoing
reflexive control campaign. The Russian military command reportedly redeployed elements of the 41st
Combined Arms Army (CAA, Central Military District ) from south of Pokrovsk to the Novopavlivka
direction, which will likely improve Russia’s command and control (C2) in both sectors. European
officials continue to report drone sightings and GPS interference in European airspace. European
officials continued to warn that Russia’s recent drone attacks against Europe are part of a broader
campaign to generate fear and disunity in Europe. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern
Sumy Oblast and Novopavlivka, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk
and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
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