Russia continues to leverage its partnerships with US adversaries, including North Korea, to offset the
resource shortages constraining Russia's economy and war effort. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency
reported on February 9, citing South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS), that thousands of North
Korean workers arrived in Russia in 2024 to take construction jobs. Russian official data shows that
13,221 North Koreans entered Russia in 2024 — up to 12 times the number that entered Russia in 2023. Many
of the North Korean workers are reportedly entering Russia on student visas, with 7,887 North Koreans
having entered Russia in 2024 for alleged education purposes. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii
reported on February 4 that the number of North Koreans who came to Russia to study in 2024 was the
highest number since 2019. Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported in November 2024 that data from
the Federal Security Service (FSB) Border Service showed that a record number of North Koreans entered
Russia for education between July and September 2024 — notably in the lead up to the reported start of
North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia in early October 2024.
Russia has been suffering
from significant labor shortages in both its civilian and defense industrial sectors since the start of
its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of several thousands of North Koreans to work in civilian
sectors is marginal and will not significantly alleviate Russia's labor shortages. Russia reportedly has
an estimated labor shortage of 1.5 million workers as of December 2024, for example. North Korea's
provisions of materiel and troops to Russia have significantly increased over the course of 2024,
however, and the several thousands of North Korean workers that arrived in Russia recently may be the
beginning of larger influxes in the future that could more significantly help Russia's labor shortage
issues. (Russian forces‘ initial use of small numbers of North Korean artillery and mortar shells grew
rapidly, with 60 percent of Russian forces‘ artillery ammunition fired now being sourced from North Korea
as of December 2024.) Russian enterprises are also likely not paying North Korean workers the same
salaries as Russian citizens, so a significant influx of North Korean workers into the Russian work force
in the future could also financially benefit Russian enterprises that are having to offer high salaries
to Russian citizens in order to compete against Russian military and defense industrial enterprises for
employees. Significant increases in the number of North Koreans working in Russia's civilian sectors in
the future could also free up Russian civilian sector employees to work in the Russian defense industrial
base (DIB) or fight in Ukraine.
The arrival of North Korean workers to Russia demonstrates how
Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), is violating UNSC Resolution
2397. Russia voted for Resolution 2397 in 2017 in response to North Korea's intercontinental ballistic
missile (ICBM) tests. The resolution explicitly prohibits North Korea from sending its citizens abroad
for work and mandated that all UN member states expel all North Koreans "earning income" abroad by
December 2019. Russia is likely using the guise of student visas to hide Russia's violation of the
resolution.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un continues to reiterate his support for Russia
and its war effort in Ukraine. Kim gave a speech at the North Korean Ministry of National Defense on
February 9 that heavily focused on the threats the US and the West allegedly pose to North Korean
security. Kim criticized the US for protracting the war in Ukraine and claimed that he is "seriously
concerned" about the West's alleged desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Kim notably claimed
that the North Korean military and people will "invariably support and encourage" Russia's "just cause"
to defend its sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity "in the spirit of" the June 2024
Russian-North Korean comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.
Key Takeaways:
• Russia continues to leverage its partnerships with US adversaries, including North Korea, to
offset the resource shortages constraining Russia's economy and war effort.
• The arrival of
North Korean workers to Russia demonstrates how Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC), is violating UNSC Resolution 2397.
• North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un
continues to reiterate his support for Russia and its war effort in Ukraine.
• German
authorities reportedly failed to down suspected Russian reconnaissance drones flying near a German
military facility in January 2025 where Ukrainian forces have undergone training.
• Russia
appears to be leveraging the technological innovations it is developing in its war in Ukraine directly
against NATO states.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near
Vovchansk.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia continues efforts to recruit Russians and citizens of other Commonwealth of Independent
State (CIS) countries to sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the Ukrainian "Drone Line" project on February 10 as
part of ongoing Ukrainian efforts to integrate drone and ground operations. Umerov stated that the
Ukrainian military will "scale up" five existing drone regiments and brigades in the Ukrainian military
and border guard service and will integrate infantry and drones into a single strike system, which will
enable Ukrainian forces to create kill zones 10 to 15 kilometers deep, will provide constant aerial
support and infantry cover, and will detect and destroy Russian forces before they can approach Ukrainian
positions. Ukraine's Ground Forces reported that the expansion of five such existing drone units is only
the first stage of the Drone Line project. This project likely formalizes and provides additional support
to ongoing Ukrainian efforts to expand drone units and increase their coordination with regiments and
brigades, while keeping regular units and drone units separate in order to support drone units' more
rapid combat and technological adaptations and innovations.
Ukraine's efforts to integrate
drone operations with ground operations significantly differ from Russian efforts to centralize drone
units. Russian efforts to centralize drone units have attempted to augment Russian drone capabilities by
expanding state control over drone operators and developers and increasing their incorporation into the
Russian military bureaucracy. The Russian military began efforts to centralize drone operators and
developers in Fall 2024, disbanding informal Russian drone detachments and removing drone specialists
from regular military units, then selectively reorganizing them to form new Russian Ministry of Defense
(MoD)-controlled drone units and centralizing their assets. The Russian MoD also reportedly established
its first separate unmanned systems regiment at the military district level in January 2024, further
highlighting ongoing efforts to centralize and bureaucratize control over drone operations. ISW continues
to assess that the Russian MoD's efforts to centralize and reorganize drone units and monopolize drone
production and procurement processes may complicate Russian forces' ability to rapidly innovate and adapt
new technologies and combat techniques in the short- to medium-term.
Ukrainian forces continue
to target oil refineries in Russia as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense
industrial enterprises and oil refineries. Head of Ukraine's Center for Combatting Disinformation
Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko implied on February 10 that Ukrainian drones struck Krasnodar City and the
Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai just south of Krasnodar City. Kovalenko noted that
the Afipsky refinery has a production capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a vital
role in providing fuel to the Russian military, particularly in southern Ukraine. Kovalenko highlighted
that the refinery's location in Krasnodar Krai makes it a significant logistical hub supplying diesel
fuel and jet fuel to Russian forces. The Afipsky Oil Refinery notably borders the base of the Russian
90th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army , Southern Military District ),
which has previously been armed with Buk-M2 and Buk-M3 air defense systems, although the base's current
air defense capabilities are unknown. Geolocated footage published on February 9 shows an explosion near
Krasnodar City. Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev claimed on February 10 that Russian forces
downed a Ukrainian drone over Krasnodar City, damaging a residential building. Kondratyev claimed that
Russian forces also downed a drone over Afipsky and that debris damaged a private residence. Krasnodar
City Mayor Evgeny Naumov claimed on February 10 that drone debris fell near a market.
Key
Takeaways:
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the Ukrainian "Drone Line"
project on February 10 as part of ongoing Ukrainian efforts to integrate drone and ground operations.
• Ukraine's efforts to integrate drone operations with ground operations significantly differ
from Russian efforts to centralize drone units.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target oil
refineries in Russia as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense industrial enterprises
and oil refineries.
• Russian authorities reportedly authorized the systematic torture of
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) held in Russian prisons as early as March 2022.
• The
Kremlin may be setting informational conditions to justify an influx of North Korean citizens arriving in
Russia to join either the Russian workforce or the Russian military.
• A Russian official
claimed that Russia is sending experienced Russian military personnel to North Korea for medical
treatment.
• The pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistria refused aid from the
EU to resolve its gas crisis, demonstrating Russia's continued economic influence over Transnistria and
the Kremlin's prioritization of the region.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near
Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and
Pokrovsk.
• Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the systemic issue of Russian
forces submitting false reports to Russian military authorities and of high-level Russian officers
micromanaging tactical-level units on the battlefield.
Russian officials are reportedly attempting to constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current
frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading
Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian territory. Several Russian milbloggers who regularly criticize
the Russian military's conduct of the war in Ukraine claimed on February 10 and 11 that unspecified
actors are calling for Russian authorities to charge the milbloggers with discrediting the Russian
military after the milbloggers reported about recent Ukrainian advances southeast of Sudzha. The
milbloggers claimed that the Russian military command is targeting them for publishing information about
successful Ukrainian attacks near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka, and one milblogger claimed that
the recent Ukrainian attacks forced the Russian military command to delay plans for a future offensive
operation in the area. The latter claim indicates that the Russian military command may have been
planning to conduct an offensive operation to seize Sudzha, a prominent gas transit hub and the main town
that Ukrainian forces control in Kursk Oblast.
The Russian military appears increasingly
anxious to consolidate control over reporting about the situation in Kursk Oblast as Zelensky continues
to express his intent to leverage Russian territory in future peace negotiations. Zelensky stated during
his interview with The Guardian that he intends to use Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk Oblast to secure
the return of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory or "something else" during future peace negotiations
with Russia. Zelensky noted that it is important to retake all of occupied Ukraine and did not speculate
on which area of occupied Ukraine he would consider trading Russian territory for. Russian President
Vladimir Putin likely intends to expel Ukraine from Kursk Oblast, or at least from Sudzha, before
beginning peace negotiations in order to avoid having to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for Russian
territory.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated
Ukraine's commitment to good faith peace negotiations with Russia and the particular importance of US
military assistance to Ukraine's security.
• Russian officials are reportedly attempting to
constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to
concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian
territory.
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery and reportedly struck Engels Air Base in
Saratov Oblast on the night of February 10 to 11.
• The Russian State Duma voted to remove
Russian State Duma deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) retired
Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev from the Duma Defense Committee on February 11.
• The
Kremlin may be setting informational conditions for possible false flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and
against Russian opposition politicians living abroad in order to discredit Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced near
Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Hulyaipole.
• Russian
regional authorities are reportedly reducing payments due to regional budget deficits for Russian
soldiers who received minor injuries.
US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12. Trump stated on February 12 that he discussed the war in
Ukraine with Putin and that he and Putin agreed that their administrations will "immediately" begin
negotiations. Trump added that he planned to "inform of the conversation" after his call with
Putin. The official Kremlin readout of the call claimed that Putin emphasized the need to "eliminate the
root causes" of the war and that Putin "agreed with" Trump that "a long-term settlement could be achieved
through peaceful negotiations." Russian officials have explicitly defined the "root causes" of the war as
NATO's alleged violation of commitments not to advance eastward in areas near Russia's border, which
indicates that the Kremlin remains committed to imposing its will and security interests on the United
States and Europe and is not interested in compromising on this demand. Trump confirmed his phone call
with Zelensky and stated that they discussed the war and the upcoming February 14 meeting between
Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security
Conference. Zelensky stated that he and Trump discussed opportunities to achieve peace, readiness to work
together, and Ukraine's technological capabilities — including drones. Zelensky stated that Trump shared
the details of his conversation with Putin and that he and Trump agreed to plan future bilateral
meetings.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson
Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied
Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast during future peace
negotiations. Medvedev stated that it would be "nonsense" to swap Russian and Ukrainian territory, and
Peskov stated that Russia will "never discuss" exchanging its territory. Medvedev's and Peskov's
statements further support ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in
making any compromises during future peace negotiations and will only comply with a peace agreement that
fulfills all of Putin's maximalist demands in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• US
President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian
Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk
Oblast during future peace negotiations.
• Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS)
assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to launch a full-scale war against NATO in the next five
years, which is consistent with ISW's assessments about Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its
military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• The
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recently launched the "Contract 18-24" voluntary recruitment program
aimed a recruiting 18 to 24-year-old Ukrainians into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Russian
President Vladimir Putin held his first official call with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara on
February 12 since the fall of Russian-backed former Syrian President Bashar al Assad.
• The
Armenian National Assembly approved a draft law in the first reading on February 12 to commence the
process of joining the European Union (EU).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk
Oblast and near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Siversk,
Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russia's Shahed drone production rate may be
declining.
Ukraine's European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the February 12 Ukraine
Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting. The United Kingdom (UK) pledged 150 million pounds
(about $188 million) in military support, including drones, "dozens" of battle tanks and armored
vehicles, and air defense systems, and confirmed plans to provide Ukraine with an additional 4.5 billion
pounds (about $5.6 billion) worth of military assistance in 2025. The UK stated that it will provide
Ukraine will over 50 armored and protective vehicles, including modernized T-72 tanks, by the end of
Spring 2025. Germany committed to supplying 100 IRIS-T air defense system missiles to Ukraine in the near
future, and German defense company Helsing announced the delivery of 6,000 AI-equipped drones to Ukraine.
Norway joined the Ukrainian Drone Coalition and revealed plans to establish and equip Ukraine's "Northern
Brigade" as part of a broader Nordic initiative in which the Nordic countries will equip and train one
Ukrainian battalion each. The Netherlands announced the delivery of 25 YPR armored infantry vehicles,
Latvia announced the donation of 42 armored personnel carriers, and Estonia also pledged to allocate 0.25
percent of its GDP for military assistance to Ukraine in 2025.
Russia reportedly lost just
over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023. The British International
Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated on February 10 that Russia lost 1,400 main battle tanks
(roughly four tank divisions' worth) and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored
personnel carriers (APCs) — totaling 5,100 lost tanks and armored vehicles in 2024. Data from the
Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed over 3,000 Russian tanks and
almost 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024, and IISS' estimates likely only account for destroyed tanks and
armored vehicles. IISS assessed in February 2024 that Russia would be able to sustain its then-rate of
vehicle losses (over 3,000 tanks, APCs, and IFVs annually as of 2023) until February 2026 or 2027 by
refurbishing vehicles from Soviet-era storage facilities. It remains unclear if the Russian military
command will remain willing or able to sustain this increased rate of armored vehicle losses in 2025, as
Russian forces appear to be adapting their tactics to limit such losses.
Ukrainian forces
continue to target Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of an ongoing strike campaign
against Russian defense industrial enterprises. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR)
announced on February 13 that Ukrainian drones destroyed two Valdai radar complexes in Dolgoprudny,
Moscow Oblast and noted that Russian forces used the radar complexes to detect and down drones over the
airspace near Moscow City. Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov claimed on February 13 that Ukrainian
drones targeted the Lipetsk water aeration station in Lipetsk City, and a Russian source claimed that
Ukrainian drones targeted the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant, which is located near the station and
produces about 20 percent of Russia's steel output. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne, citing sources in
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), reported on February 13 that the SBU struck the Andreapol oil pumping
station in Tver Oblast, causing a fire at the boiler equipment warehouse and a closed switchgear.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukraine's European partners announced new military assistance to
Ukraine amid the February 12 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting.
• Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in
2023.
• IISS noted that Russia has adapted some of its tactics to address ongoing equipment
shortages and is increasingly relying on infantry-led assaults to advance along the frontline.
• It remains unclear if Russia can repair and newly-produce a sufficient number of tanks and armored
vehicles to replace losses in Ukraine and equip new Russian units.
• Estonia's Foreign
Intelligence Service (EFIS) assessed that Russia is attempting to build its capabilities not only to
support Russia's war effort in Ukraine but also to prepare for a potential future war with NATO, which is
consistent with ISW's assessments about ongoing Russian efforts to prepare its military and society for a
future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target
Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense
industrial enterprises.
• The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced on February
13 the termination of the Moldovan-Russian Intergovernmental Agreement on the establishment and
functioning of Russian cultural centers in Moldova in response to ongoing reports of Russian drones
violating Moldovan airspace.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk.
• Russian officials continue efforts to increase recruitment for the "BARS-Bryansk" volunteer
territorial defense detachment.
Lessons of the Minsk Deal: Breaking the Cycle of Russia's War in Ukraine
Some peace deals lead
to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015
but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The United States must learn
from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that puts American lives at risk.
Minsk II was a weak deal. It demanded nothing of the invader— Russia. It strengthened the Kremlin’s
aggressive worldview that had driven the conflict to begin with. It masked Russian military weakness. It
gave the Kremlin time and space to prepare for a larger invasion. The West could have helped Ukraine
reach a stronger deal in 2015.
Minsk II gave Russian President Vladimir Putin hope that he
could win in Ukraine without war. Russia sought and failed to control Ukraine in 2014 by military means.
Minsk II gave Putin a way to demand that Ukraine — an independent state —give Russia control over its
internal policies. Putin failed at that too and turned to the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Minsk II helped Putin mask his demands for Ukraine’s surrender behind false calls for peace. The West
has repeatedly failed to call out and counter the real Russian demands since 2014. Minsk II reinforced
Western delusions that Putin might simply settle if he received some land or if the West metered support
to Ukraine or tried harder to negotiate with Putin. The deal also gave an excuse to those who understood
the Kremlin’s goals but sought to restore ties with Russia anyway.
Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s
close adviser in 2014, said in 2024 that Minsk II “legitimized the first partition of Ukraine.” Surkov’s
words confirm Russia’s goal to destroy Ukraine as a state and to use the Minsk deal to do so. He added
that “peace is nothing more than the continuation of war by other means.”
Another weak deal
today would validate Putin’s 2022 full-scale invasion and give Putin hope to gain more over time. Hope
for Putin means more war. More war means a larger war: An absolved Russia that bears little or no cost
for its invasion will want more and will rebuild its capability to do more. A larger war would mean a
higher cost for the United States, risk to American lives, and risk of a catastrophic escalation.
The Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war
through “peace” in Ukraine. To do so, the United States must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal:
• Russia will seek to transfer the responsibility and cost for its war onto someone else’s
balance sheet.
• Putin’s demands are stand-ins for his goals – controlling Ukraine and making
the United States bend to Putin’s demands to create a world order that favors Russia.
• Putin
will fight as long as he believes he can outlast the West and Ukraine. Ending the war requires stripping
Putin of hope that he can destroy Ukraine as a state in his lifetime — militarily or through a “peace
deal.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance met on the sidelines of the Munich
Security Conference on February 14. Vance stated during a press conference following the meeting that the
United States remains committed to ending the war and achieving a "durable, lasting peace" in Ukraine and
not the "kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the
road." Vance noted the importance of dialogue between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, and
declined to speculate on possible conditions of a future peace agreement in order to "preserve the
optionality" for the delegations. Vance and Zelensky both noted that the conversation was productive and
Zelensky thanked the United States for continued military support. Zelensky stated that the United States
and Ukraine are preparing a plan to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression and finish the war
in a just and lasting peace that provides tangible security guarantees for Ukraine. US President Donald
Trump told reporters on February 14 that Ukraine would have a seat at the table during future peace
negotiations with Russia to end the war.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak met
with US Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg in Munich and discussed ongoing efforts
to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine. Zelensky also met with a bipartisan delegation of US senators to
discuss ongoing US military support for Ukraine, economic cooperation, and the future joint development
of critical minerals and rare earth materials in Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius,
British Deputy Defense Minister Luke Polland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and other European
officials reiterated Europe's support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity amid ongoing
discussions about future peace negotiations with Russia.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance met on the sidelines of the Munich Security
Conference on February 14.
• The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to
reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong
and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call.
• Russian officials and
information space actors have notably not amplified the Russian information operation aimed at portraying
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the illegitimate leader of Ukraine since the February 12
Trump-Putin call.
• A Russian Shahed drone struck the protective structure of the Chornobyl
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on February 14.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that
Russia may be preparing to launch intensified offensive operations into northern Ukraine or attack NATO's
eastern flank in 2026.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near
Kurakhove, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Vovchansk, Lyman, Kurakhove, and
Pokrovsk.
• Russia is reportedly intensifying efforts to coerce Russian mobilized and
conscripted personnel into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to
create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations. Zelensky
stated during his address at the Munich Security Conference on February 15 that Putin intends to cut
Ukraine out of negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine and conduct direct bilateral
negotiations with the United States. ISW has previously noted that Putin has recently attempted to
present himself as equal to Trump and to present Russia as a global power comparable to the United States
and as an heir to the Soviet Union's "superpower" status. Zelensky stated that Putin wants to embarrass
Trump and have Trump attend the Russian Victory Day Parade — which highlights Russia's role in defeating
Nazi Germany during the Second World War — on May 9 as a "prop." Zelensky's warning aligns with a report
from Russian opposition news outlet Meduza that the Kremlin instructed Russian state media to reduce
reporting about Trump and instead portray Putin as a strong and decisive leader, as well as to frame the
February 12 Putin-Trump phone call as a victory for Putin. Zelensky also stated that Trump has not
discussed the prospect of having other European states participate in negotiations and that Ukraine and
the rest of Europe need to present a united front to Putin and Europe needs to participate in decisions
about its own future. The Kremlin has routinely attempted to portray the US as the only other relevant
actor in Ukraine besides Russia to deny Ukraine's agency in future negotiations and set conditions to
convince the US to ignore Ukraine's interests, all likely to demand significant concessions in Russia's
favor. Zelensky also reiterated his warning that Russia will field 15 new divisions and use military
exercises in Belarus to threaten NATO.
Ukrainian and US officials continue to provide details
on upcoming peace negotiations to end the war. Zelensky told Newsmax on February 15 that Russian forces
at "minimum" need to withdraw to the pre-full scale invasion frontline and reiterated his commitment to
ending the war in 2025. US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that the US
aims to engage "all parties in a peace process" within 180 days (by roughly August 2025) and noted that
other European states would not "be at the table" in peace negotiations but that the US will consider
their points of view.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the
victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations.
• Ukraine's US and European partners
continue to work to jointly develop Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
• Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna
Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin's false narrative about Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky's illegitimacy and Russia's longstanding goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.
• Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid
indications that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostyantynivka
— the southernmost point of Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast — in Spring and Summer 2025.
• Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian
units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
• The Russian military command
may also intend to prioritize assaults on Kostyantynivka in 2025 and are thus reportedly not reinforcing
the Russian force grouping south of Pokrovsk.
• Russian cargo vessels have continued to
evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the
interim government.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces
recently advanced near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian occupation
authorities continue to create regional analogues to the federal "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to
place veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions as part of Kremlin efforts to integrate
occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society and government.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on
February 16 to "open a channel of communication" for future talks about the war in Ukraine. US State
Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that Rubio spoke with Lavrov as a follow up to US President
Donald Trump's recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that Rubio reaffirmed Trump's
commitment to ending the war in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that Rubio
and Lavrov agreed to maintain a channel of communication to resolve issues in the US-Russian
relationship; to remove barriers to trade, economic, and investment cooperation; to work together on
ending the war in Ukraine and solving issues in the Middle East; and to organize future meetings to
improve the work of foreign missions in the United States and Russia. The Russian MFA claimed that Rubio
and Lavrov agreed to work to restore "mutually respectful" interstate dialogue and to hold regular
contacts, including a Russian-American summit in the future. Rubio stated on CBS on February 16 that his
phone call with Lavrov was meant to establish communications for future efforts aimed at reaching a peace
agreement in Ukraine. Rubio noted that he discussed issues surrounding the operation of American and
Russian embassies because it will be difficult to communicate with Russia if the embassies are not
functioning.
US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations are reportedly gathering in Saudi Arabia
ahead of bilateral US-Russia and US-Ukraine negotiations in the coming weeks. US Special Presidential
Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated on February 16 that he, National Security Advisor Mike
Waltz, and other unnamed US officials will travel to Saudi Arabia for bilateral negotiations with Russia.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CBS that he will also travel to Saudi Arabia this week and will
take advantage of "any opportunity" to further US President Donald Trump's goal of ending the war in
Ukraine. It remains unclear who will represent Russia during the meeting, although a Russian insider
source claimed on February 16 that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will arrive in Saudi Arabia in
February 18. Ukrainian Economic Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that a Ukrainian delegation has also
arrived in Saudi Arabia on a working visit. It is unclear if US and Ukrainian officials will meet in
Saudi Arabia, as US Special Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg will arrive in
Ukraine in the coming days to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
US officials
continue to outline their expectations for the peace negotiations. Witkoff noted that his initial meeting
with Russian officials is about "trust building" and expressed hope that he will make progress during
these initial meetings. Kellogg stated during the Munich Security Conference on February 15 that Russia
must make territorial concessions during the negotiations and that Russia could also promise to not use
force against Ukraine in the future or commit to "downsizing" the Russian military. Rubio stated during
his interview with CBS that European officials must be involved in the peace negotiations in some
capacity, but did not provide additional details. The People's Republic of China (PRC) and Brazil also
released a statement on February 16 calling for major world powers to work together to promote peace in
Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on February 16 to "open a channel of communication" for
future talks about the war in Ukraine.
• US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations are reportedly
gathering in Saudi Arabia ahead of bilateral US-Russia and US-Ukraine negotiations in the coming
weeks.
• Ukraine's European partners reiterated their support for Ukraine's war effort and
domestic defense industry at the Munich Security Conference.
• The Kremlin officially
reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, setting conditions for Moscow to claim that Ukraine
has no standing to negotiate with Russia or that any agreements reached with Ukraine in the future are
invalid.
• Medvedchuk's interview and Peskov's February 16 statements continue to cast doubt
on Moscow's willingness to negotiate in good faith about a settlement of the war and set informational
conditions for Russia to violate any agreement reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian government had
no legal right to conclude it.
• The Kremlin extended an open invitation to US President
Donald Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow as part of efforts to posture Russia's
strength and global power status.
• Western reporting suggests that the United States intends
to ease sanctions on Belarus. Russia uses Belarus as a staging ground for its military against Ukraine
and NATO and as a critical tool in its sanctions evasion schemes.
• The Russian military
command reportedly redeployed additional elements of the Southern Military District's (SMD) 8th Combined
Arms Army (CAA) to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, further indicating that the Russian
military command intends to prioritize putting pressure on Kostyantynivka – the southernmost point of
Ukraine's "fortress belt" – in 2025.
• The Russian military appears to be committing to a
multi-year-long effort to seize Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast, further underscoring
Russia's Putin's apparent disinterest in a lasting and enduring peace in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian
forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near
Kupyansk, Siversk, and Kurakhove.
The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine
to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin
is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations. Russian Permanent
Representative to the United Nations (UN) Vasily Nebenzya stated during a UN Security Council meeting on
February 17 that Ukraine has "irrevocably lost" Crimea, the "Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics"
(referring to occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Nebenzya
insinuated that peace negotiations should "correct" the situation in these oblasts and that Ukraine
should cede the remaining parts of the four oblasts that Ukraine currently controls. Nebenzya is calling
for Ukraine to cede the roughly 30 percent of the total area in Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts
that Russia does not currently occupy. (Russian forces currently occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk
Oblast.) Nebenzya also demanded that Ukraine become a "demilitarized" neutral state in the future and
that Ukraine not join any alliances or security blocs. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed
on February 17 the possibility of Russia making territorial concessions during future negotiations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in June 2024 that Ukraine should withdraw its forces from and
cede any unoccupied territory in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia, and
Nebenzya appears to be resurrecting this demand ahead of bilateral US-Russia negotiations. US Special
Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated during the Munich Security Conference on
February 15 that Russia must make territorial concessions during negotiations, and US Secretary of State
Marco Rubio noted on February 16 that US President Donald Trump wants to see the war end in a way that
"protects Ukraine's sovereignty."
Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European
involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward
Russia. Nebenzya claimed that European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) are "incapable"
of reaching any agreement with Russia and cannot be party to any future agreements about the war in
Ukraine. Nebenzya accused European countries of being "blinded" by Russophobia and unrealistic about
peace negotiations. Lavrov questioned why European countries should participate in negotiations and
insinuated that European leaders only want to prolong the war in Ukraine in order to defeat Russia and
prepare for a future war between Russia and Europe. Russian authorities have previously focused their
information operations against NATO, accusing the alliance of conspiring and preparing for a future war
with Russia. Russian accusations that European countries and the EU more broadly (implicitly as distinct
from the US) are acting aggressively towards Russia is a notable informational inflection and likely
indicates a new Kremlin effort to drive a wedge between the US and Europe taking advantage of tensions
evident at the recent Munich Security Conference.
The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting
Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in
the eyes of the West — notably ahead of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Nebenzya reiterated Putin's demand that Ukraine must conduct elections before the implementation of any
peace agreements, continuing the Kremlin's efforts to falsely portray the current Ukrainian government as
illegitimate. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada
Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk have also recently repeated the Kremlin's false claims that Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky is "illegitimate" and implicitly that Russia thus is not obligated to honor agreements
concluded with the current Ukrainian government. The Kremlin's apparent unwillingness to make territorial
concessions, commit to honoring any future peace agreement with Ukraine, or involve any European leaders
in these negotiations calls into question Putin's supposed willingness to engage in good faith
negotiations that could bring about long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe more broadly.
Key
Takeaways:
• The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in
eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing
to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace
negotiations.
• Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future
peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia.
• The
Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at
delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the February 18
Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia.
• The Russian delegation participating in
Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 18 does not include one of the members of
Russian President Vladimir Putin's innermost circle who had been reported as a likely negotiator.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian energy facilities supplying
the Russian military.
• Russian commanders continue to give orders for Russian forces to
execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the frontline.
• Unspecified sources told
Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a
“reduced” military presence in Syria.
• Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk,
Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to violate the
Geneva Convention by conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve in the Russian military.
> >• The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede >additional territory
in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia >and disband the Ukrainian military in the future
while >continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make >territorial
concessions itself in any future peace >negotiations. > >• Lavrov and Nebenzya
also categorically rejected European >involvement in future peace negotiations and accused
European >countries of being aggressive toward Russia. > >• The Kremlin also
appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous >demands and information operations aimed at
delegitimizing >Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably >ahead of
the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi >Arabia. >
Kleiner Teaser
für alle die glauben, dass die Nummer eh gleich durch ist.
Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on
February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful
concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's
longstanding assessment. NBC reported on February 18 that four Western intelligence officials and two US
congressional officials stated that intelligence from the United States and unspecified close American
allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to control all of Ukraine and that his
goals "remain maximalist." One congressional official stated that there is "zero" intelligence showing
that Putin is interested in a "real peace deal right now." Intelligence officials stated that Putin has
no plans to withdraw troops from Ukraine or to pull any personnel or equipment from western Russia. The
six officials stated that Putin may agree to a ceasefire and peace deal in order to give the Russian
military time to rest and reconstitute, and there is an idea among Western officials that Putin may "go
through the motions" of negotiations in order to see what concessions he can get and to reintegrate
Russia back into the global community. The two congressional officials and a former senior US
administration official noted that Putin's "broad ambitions" have remained unchanged from the end of the
Biden administration into the new Trump administration.
Western intelligence assessments
suggest that Putin has not changed his theory of victory in Ukraine and still believes that Russia's
military superiority is such that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine on the battlefield. The six
official sources told NBC that Putin still thinks that he can "wait out" Ukraine and Europe to eventually
control all of Ukraine. A Western intelligence official noted that Putin "thinks he is winning" and does
not feel pressure to stop hostilities due to Russian battlefield losses. Putin claimed in June 2024 that
Russian forces aim to "squeeze" Ukrainian forces out "of those territories that should be under Russian
control" and that Russia did not need to conduct another partial involuntary reserve call up similar to
that in September 2022 because Russia is not trying to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine
rapidly. Putin's theory of victory assumes that the Russian military can sustain slow, creeping advances
on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend and longer than the West is willing to support
Ukraine.
Many recent Russian statements show that Putin remains uninterested in engaging in
good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has
offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. Kremlin officials have repeatedly
denied Ukraine's sovereignty over its internationally recognized 1991 borders and the legitimacy of the
Ukrainian government. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov most recently claimed on February 16. Kremlin
officials, including Putin, have promoted false narratives that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is
"illegitimate" as part of efforts to claim that Zelensky does not have the authority to negotiate with
Russia or that Russia does not have to honor any agreements that Zelensky may sign in the future. Putin
and other Russian officials have also demanded that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and
southern Ukraine to Russia, while denying that Russia will make any territorial concessions of its
own.
Russia attempted to posture itself as on equal terms with the United States during the
February 18 Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia, focusing its official public rhetoric about the
meeting on US-Russian relations and not the war in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
published a boilerplate readout of the meeting, during which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and
Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser
Michael Waltz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Russian officials, including Peskov,
Lavrov, and Ushakov, broadly stated that the talks went well, claiming that the discussions were the
start of a long process and that Russia and the United States will continue dialogue on these issues.
Lavrov claimed that the meeting was "useful" and that Russia and the United States began to "hear each
other" and share a "determination to move forward." The Russian MFA's readout emphasized the
Russian-American bilateral aspects of the talks, including normalizing bilateral relations, establishing
a dialogue for future economic and energy cooperation, and resuming communications on international
issues. The Russian MFA's readout also emphasized that Russia and the United States have a "special
responsibility" as nuclear powers and members of the UN Security Council to resume communicating on
international issues. ISW continues to note that Putin is trying to present himself as equal to US
President Donald Trump and to present Russia as a global power comparable to the United States and as the
heir to the Soviet Union's "superpower" status. The Russian MFA readout only briefly mentioned Ukraine,
claiming that the delegations "exchanged views" on the situation "around Ukraine" and mutually committed
to resolving the war.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian and American officials met in Saudi
Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no
indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western
intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment.
• Many recent
Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and
retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public
indication that it would materially compromise.
• Russia attempted to posture itself as on
equal terms with the United States during the February 18 Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia,
focusing its official public rhetoric about the meeting on US-Russian relations and not the war in
Ukraine.
• Russian officials at the bilateral meeting continued to signal the Kremlin's
unwillingness to negotiate on the war in Ukraine and determination to achieve its maximalist objectives
in Ukraine.
• Zelensky, in contrast to Kremlin officials, continues to demonstrate Ukraine's
willingness to compromise to bring about an enduring end to the war.
• Russian officials in
Saudi Arabia began what will likely be an ongoing effort to push the United States into accepting Russian
offers of economic and investment measures in lieu of any actual Russian concessions on Ukraine.
• Dmitriev attempted to frame Russian-offered economic incentives as more beneficial for the US than
for Russia, but in reality Russia needs economic relief as soon as possible to stave off looming crises
in 2025 and 2026.
• US officials continue to meet with European leaders about support for
Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor continued to complain that the Russian
military command's lack of response to systemic issues is limiting Russian advances near Pokrovsk.
• Russian opposition outlet SOTA reported on February 18 that Republic of Mordovia Head Artyom
Zdunov announced that regional authorities are raising one-time payments for recruits who sign a contract
with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) from 400,000 rubles ($4,369) to 1.1 million rubles
($12,015).
• Russian forces continue to deploy wounded and medically unfit soldiers to the
frontline in an effort to address personnel shortages.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly trying to optimize the Russian negotiations delegation to
be most effective with the specific individuals whom the United States chooses for its negotiation
delegation, likely in an effort to extract maximum concessions from the United States. Kremlin
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 19 that Putin will appoint a negotiator for talks with the
United States after the United States appoints its own negotiator. Russian opposition outlet Meduza
reported on February 19, citing a source close to the Kremlin, that the United States was the first to
select its delegation for the February 18 bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia, after which Russia attempted
to "select relevant" counterparts for each of the selected US officials. The source claimed that Russian
Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev's appointment to the delegation appeared largely as a
response to US demands that Russia appoint someone that would "understand" the United States. Another
source close to the Kremlin told Meduza that Putin may appoint his aide Vladimir Medinsky to the Russian
negotiations delegation if Ukrainian representatives join future negotiations because Medinsky took part
in the Spring 2022 Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul. The source claimed that the Kremlin does
not need to include Medinsky in the Russian delegation so long as negotiations remain bilateral between
the United States and Russia. The Moscow Times reported on February 19, citing a diplomatic source
familiar with the February 18 US-Russia meeting, that the Kremlin seeks to restore access to roughly $6
billion worth of frozen Russian Central Bank reserves in the US. The source claimed that the Russian
negotiations delegation in Saudi Arabia pushed for the United States to agree that both countries fully
resume the operations of their diplomatic missions in the other country and to return Russian diplomatic
property in the United States, which US authorities had previously seized on charges of being used for
intelligence purposes. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on February 18 that the United States and
Russia had agreed to restore "the functionality of respective missions in Washington and Moscow."
The Kremlin appears to be attempting to push the United States to accept economic and diplomatic terms
that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine, possibly in return for Ukrainian and Western concessions that
are related to the war. US acceptance of these economic and diplomatic terms — without demanding any
Russian concessions on Ukraine in return — would give away leverage that the United States will need to
achieve US President Donald Trump's stated objective of achieving a lasting and enduring peace that
benefits the United States and Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National
Security Adviser Michael Waltz reiterated on February 18 that US President Donald Trump's position that
the war in Ukraine must end in a way that is "fair, enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all parties
involved" remains unchanged. Rubio, Waltz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff gave an
interview to CNN and the Associated Press (AP) on February 18 following bilateral talks with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov in Saudi Arabia. Waltz stated that any
future end to the war needs to be "permanent," not "temporary as we have seen in the past." Waltz stated
that there is going to have to be "some discussion of territory...and security guarantees" and that
future talks will discuss Russia's ability to retain any Ukrainian territory that Russia has illegally
annexed since February 2022. Rubio answered a question about possible concessions from Russia, stating
that these "kinds of things" will happen through "difficult diplomacy in closed rooms." Rubio later noted
that there will have to be concessions "made by all sides" in order to bring about an end to the war.
Rubio emphasized that a war can only end when "everyone involved" in the war — which Rubio explicitly
defined as including Ukraine, Russia, and US partners in Europe — is "okay with" and accepts the end
agreement. Rubio answered a question about his assessment of Russia's desire to achieve peace following
the talks in Saudi Arabia, stating that Russia appears willing to "begin to engage in a serious process
to determine" the mechanism to end the war, but that an outcome will ultimately depend on the willingness
of every side in the war to "agree to certain things."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
reiterated on February 19 that Ukraine needs either NATO membership or a strong military and security
guarantees for a sustainable peace. Zelensky emphasized that security guarantees do not necessarily mean
deploying peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that it would be sufficient if the United
States provided Ukraine with 20 Patriot air defense systems and the license to domestically produce
Patriot missiles. Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized Ukraine's need for additional Patriot systems and
missiles to defend against Russian missile strikes, particularly those with ballistic missiles targeting
Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and his February 19 statements are consistent with previous statements
that Ukraine needs a strong military of its own to deter and defend against future Russian aggression.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly trying to
optimize the Russian negotiations delegation to be most effective with the specific individuals whom the
United States chooses for its negotiation delegation, likely in an effort to extract maximum concessions
from the United States.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser
Michael Waltz reiterated on February 18 that US President Donald Trump's position that the war in Ukraine
must end in a way that is "fair, enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all parties involved" remains
unchanged.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on February 19 that Ukraine
needs either NATO membership or a strong military and security guarantees for a sustainable peace.
• US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv on February 19
for his first official visit to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes
against Russian energy facilities supplying the Russian military.
• Ukrainian forces recently
advanced near Vovchansk and Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Siversk, Pokrovsk,
Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian federal subjects are reportedly halting their
recruitment of foreigners who do not speak Russian for service in the Russian military.
The Financial Times (FT) published an investigation on February 20 supporting ISW's long-held assessment
that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law. The FT investigation provided
additional details and analysis following a significant increase in the number of credible reports of
Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs in 2024 compared to the first two years of the war. FT and
experts from the Center for Information Resilience analyzed footage of the executions and used the
soldiers' uniforms to confirm that Russian forces were conducting the executions. FT conducted an
investigation into footage of a Russian soldier shooting six unarmed Ukrainian POWs and identified the
possible perpetrator as a soldier in a "Storm" penal detachment of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd
Combined Arms Army , Central Military District ), but noted that the situation warrants further
investigation to confirm this soldier's involvement. FT reported that the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade
has been fighting near Pokrovsk since Fall 2024, which is consistent with ISW's observations. FT noted
that Ukrainian frontline units are often the primary source of execution reports and drone footage of
executions. FT noted, however, that tracking these executions is challenging because the Ukrainian units
do not always relay reports of Ukrainian POW executions to their commanders. FT noted that Ukrainian
prosecutors sometimes find out about the executions based on footage published online. FT interviewed the
cofounders of a project reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence who stated that many
Ukrainian units do not publish information about executions "because it has become routine" and that
there are likely hundreds of instances of POW executions beyond the "dozens" recorded so far.
FT's investigation suggests that more senior Russian commanders may also be complicit in issuing orders
to execute Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian officials opened investigations into 43 executions with 109 victims
in 2024, and FT analyzed footage of 30 of these instances with 133 victims. The FT investigation found
that Russian forces across the frontline — particularly in eastern Ukraine and Zaporizhia Oblast - are
executing Ukrainian POWs, not just a few isolated "rogue units." Global Rights Compliance
President Wayne Jordash, who is assisting Ukrainian investigations into POW executions, told the FT that
Russia is pursuing a "strategy of criminality" in Ukraine, including by torturing, sexually assaulting,
and otherwise abusing residents in occupied Ukraine, and that the POW executions are also part of this
criminality campaign. Jordash stated that Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs function to degrade
Ukraine's military and security apparatus, leaving Ukraine more vulnerable to aggression.
Jordash noted that international law states that individuals who fail to prevent war crimes are also
culpable for said war crimes and that government officials calling for POW executions are violating
international law. Jordash mentioned specific instances of senior Russian leaders, including Security
Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, explicitly calling
for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian POWs. Jordash highlighted that Russian President Vladimir Putin
praised the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) for its actions in combat, which is
notable because the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is has been linked to the beheading of Ukrainian POWs
and execution of Ukrainian drone operators in October 2024. Forbes attributed beheadings of Ukrainian
POWs in August 2024 and summary executions in October 2024 in Kursk Oblast to the 155th Naval Infantry
Brigade. Putin awarded the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade the "Guards" honorific title in July 2024. FT
reported that Putin held highly publicized meetings with two unspecified participants of the Kremlin's
"Time of Heroes" veterans program who reportedly executed POWs near Robotyne, Zaporizhia Oblast in May
2024. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that there is a culture of torture and abuse of
Ukrainian POWs detained in Russian penal colonies, and taken together these reports suggest that Russian
decisionmakers in higher echelons of the chain of command may be implicitly encouraging, explicitly
ordering, or failing to stop Russian executions and other abuses of Ukrainian POWs in a system that seems
to incentivize such abuses.
Key Takeaways:
• The Financial Times (FT)
published an investigation on February 20 supporting ISW's long-held assessment that Russian military
commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of
war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• FT's investigation suggests that more
senior Russian commanders may also be complicit in issuing orders to execute Ukrainian POWs.
• Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials reported that North Korean forces are conducting joint
operations with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast and are gaining new combat capabilities.
• US
Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky in Kyiv on February 20.
• The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People's
Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to
publicly message.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces
recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia is reportedly increasing its
production of glide bombs and modernizing its cruise missiles.
Russian state media and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials
alongside long-standing Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and
undermine faith in America's commitment to Ukraine. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate
(GUR) reported on February 21 that the Kremlin has ordered Russian state media personalities and other
prominent voices in the Russian information space to intensify narratives aimed at creating discord in
Ukrainian society and discrediting Ukraine among Western allies. The GUR stated that Russian actors
intend to amplify narratives falsely alleging that the West has "betrayed" Ukraine, the United States is
not concerned about Europe's and Ukraine's opinions, the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, the
Ukrainian military is losing on the frontline, and "corrupt people" are stealing billions of dollars of
US aid from Ukraine. The GUR reported that the Kremlin is also preparing to declare "victory" over
Ukraine and possibly over NATO on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion – February 24,
2025.
ISW has recently observed Kremlin officials and prominent voices in the Russian
information space amplifying these narratives and other select statements from US officials aimed at
sowing discord between Ukraine and its allies. ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir
Putin's theory of victory is built on the assumption that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine
and that Putin is thus attempting to bring about the cessation of Western and particularly US support for
Ukraine. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported that Russian actors also intend to incite protests in
Ukraine via social media posts on February 24, 2025, and will offer to pay protestors if they attend
rallies in Ukraine. The SBU asked Ukrainian citizens to be cautious of Russian efforts to manipulate
Ukraine's information space ahead of the third anniversary of the war.
US officials continue
to reiterate their support for Ukraine and a lasting and just resolution of the war. US Secretary of
State Marco Rubio stated on February 20 that the United States used the recent bilateral meeting with
Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to gauge Russia's interest in good faith peace negotiations and to open
a communication channel between the two countries. Rubio emphasized on February 18 that a war can only
end when "everyone involved" in the war — which Rubio explicitly defined as including Ukraine, Russia,
and US partners in Europe — is "okay with" and accepts the end agreement. Rubio reiterated on February 16
that Trump wants to see the war end in a way that "protects Ukraine's sovereignty," and US Special
Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated on February 15 that Russia must make
territorial concessions during negotiations.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian state media
and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials alongside long-standing
Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and undermine faith in
America's commitment to Ukraine.
• US officials continue to reiterate their support for
Ukraine and a lasting and just resolution of the war.
• Russian forces recently eliminated the
Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove amid continued reports that the Russian military is redeploying
elements of the Russian Southern Military District's (SMD) 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) from the
Kurakhove direction to the Toretsk direction.
• Russian forces are attempting to leverage the
seizure of Velyka Novosilka to advance further north of the settlement toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk
Oblast administrative border.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight the growth of
Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB) through significant expansion in the domestic production of key
military equipment.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF)
Commander Sergei Pinchuk to the rank of Admiral and Eastern Group of Forces Commander Andrei Ivanayev to
the rank of Colonel General on February 21.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove
and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is
reportedly falsely designating former penal recruits as having abandoned their units without
authorization (SOCH) to avoid paying them amid continued indicators that Russian authorities are
concerned about the war's strain on the Russian economy.
• Zelensky does not imminently risk losing all of
Ukraine. • Most Ukrainian cities have not been destroyed. • Ukrainian law prohibits holding
elections in wartime (unlike the US Constitution, which requires it). • Ukraine has not
suffered millions of losses. • Europe provides about as much direct aid to Ukraine as the United
States. • European loans to Ukraine are backed by income from frozen Russian assets, not
Ukraine. • Ukraine did not misuse or lose half of the aid the United States has provided. •
Ukraine repeatedly invited Putin to negotiate in early 2022.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are
planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.
Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically
interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral
relations. Ryabkov added that Russia is prioritizing its demand for the United States to return six
Russian diplomatic properties, likely referring to properties US authorities previously seized on charges
of being used for intelligence purposes. Ryabkov also stated that the United States and Russian
delegations may discuss other international topics such as arms control and the situation in the Middle
East. US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on
February 18.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an
unspecified third country about bilateral relations.
• Russian forces recently advanced in
Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russian forces continue
to deploy wounded and medically unfit soldiers to the frontline in an effort to address personnel
shortages.
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as
offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on
those protocols would be a capitulation document. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior
Russian officials have repeatedly identified the 2022 peace negotiations in Istanbul as their ideal
framework for future peace negotiations to end Putin's war in Ukraine, as such a framework would force
the West to concede to all of Russia's long-standing demands. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New
York Times (NYT) reported in March and June 2024 that both publications obtained several versions of the
draft treaties from the March and April 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in Istanbul that
indicate that both sides initially agreed that Ukraine would forgo its NATO membership aspirations and be
a "permanently neutral state that doesn't participate in military blocs." The draft treaties also
reportedly banned Ukraine from receiving any foreign weapons or hosting any foreign military personnel.
The WSJ and NYT reported that Russia pushed for the Ukrainian military to be limited to 85,000 soldiers,
342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems. Russia also reportedly demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited
to a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles), a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical
systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes. The draft treaties reportedly listed the
United States, United Kingdom (UK), the People's Republic of China (PRC), France, and Russia as
guarantors of the treaty, and Russia reportedly wanted to include Belarus as a guarantor. The guarantor
states were supposed to “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent
neutrality ," including military aid agreements. The draft treaties did not specify if other
non-guarantor states would have to terminate their agreements with Ukraine as well, although this is
likely considering that the treaty would ban Ukraine from having any foreign-supplied weapons. Russia
insisted on these terms in the first and second months of the war when Russian troops were advancing on
Kyiv City and throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine and before Ukrainian forces
conducted successful counteroffensives that liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and
Kherson oblasts.
Ukraine is unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul
negotiations as such terms are effectively a full Ukrainian surrender to Russia's long-term war goals.
The Istanbul negotiations effectively conceded to Russia's long-standing demands to "denazify" —
overthrow and replace the democratically elected Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian puppet
state — and "demilitarize" — constrain and shrink the Ukrainian military beyond the point of being able
to defend itself against future Russian aggression — Ukraine. The Istanbul negotiations also conceded to
Russia's demands that Ukraine abandon its aspirations to join NATO or any other security blocs in the
future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walked away from the Istanbul negotiations with the
backing of Europe and the United States in 2022 and will almost certainly reject such terms in 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his commitment to preserving
Ukraine's democracy and a just resolution to the war. Zelensky responded to a hypothetical question
during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" Forum on February 23 about stepping down as president and stated that he
is ready to step down in the event of or to facilitate peace or immediate NATO membership for Ukraine.
Zelensky noted that he remains committed to holding elections after the war ends and has no interest in
being in power "for a decade" and reiterated that Ukraine cannot hold elections until after Russia stops
attacking Ukraine and after Ukraine lifts martial law. The Ukrainian Constitution bars the government
from holding elections or amending the Ukrainian constitution in times of martial law, and the Ukrainian
government legally cannot abolish martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine. Zelensky has
repeatedly noted Ukraine's commitment to holding fair and democratic elections in the future.
Key Takeaways:
• US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early
2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February
23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
• Ukraine is
unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul negotiations as such terms are effectively a
full Ukrainian surrender to Russia's long-term war goals.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky continues to demonstrate his commitment to preserving Ukraine's democracy and a just resolution
to the war.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight Ukraine's domestic defense industry
and domestically produced strike capabilities.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed
Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as Special Presidential Representative for
Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on February 23.
• Russian forces
launched a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 22 to 23, ahead of the
third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
• Russia appears
to be relying more on Iran and North Korea to support its war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces
continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk,
Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian government continues efforts to increase its
defense industrial output.
Russia dedicated staggering
amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to
degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. These Russian efforts
included major operations in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast area, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, northern Kharkiv
Oblast, Toretsk, Marinka-Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar-Velyka Novosilka. Russia has achieved
relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed
a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances, but Russian forces have
failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly.
Russia has thus paid an exorbitant price in manpower and equipment losses that Russia cannot sustain in
the medium term for very limited gains.
Russian losses in massive efforts that have failed to
break Ukrainian lines or even drive them back very far are exacerbating challenges that Russia will face
in sustaining the war effort through 2025 and 2026, as ISW's Christina Harward has recently reported.
Russia likely cannot sustain continued efforts along these lines indefinitely without a major
mobilization effort that Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far refused to order. Ukraine, on the
other hand, has shown its ability to fight off massive and determined Russian offensive efforts even
during periods of restricted Western aid. The effective failure of these major and costly Russian
offensive operations highlights the opportunities Ukraine has to inflict more serious battlefield defeats
on Russia that could compel Putin to rethink his approach to the war and to negotiations if the United
States and the West continue to provide essential support.
>Russian losses in massive efforts that
have failed to break >Ukrainian lines or even drive them back very far are >exacerbating
challenges that Russia will face in sustaining >the war effort through 2025 and 2026, as ISW's
Christina >Harward has recently reported. Russia likely cannot sustain >continued efforts
along these lines indefinitely without a >major mobilization effort that Russian President
Vladimir >Putin has so far refused to order. Ukraine, on the other hand, >has shown its
ability to fight off massive and determined >Russian offensive efforts even during periods of
restricted >Western aid. The effective failure of these major and costly >Russian
offensive operations highlights the opportunities >Ukraine has to inflict more serious
battlefield defeats on >Russia that could compel Putin to rethink his approach to the >war and to negotiations if the United States and the West >continue to provide essential
support. > >Institute for the Study of War > >https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-has-failed-break-ukraine
Denke ein Punkt der zu selten erwähnt wird (auch bei Reisner kaum). Wenn man sich die
Gebietsgewinne ansieht und dazu in Relation ihre Verluste ist das eine ganz miese Performance der
Russen. In manchen Bereichen (bspw. Panzermodelle) haben sie 80% ihres Equipments versenkt. Somit
sehr beachtlich die Perf. der Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on
February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the
face of this unjustified Russian aggression. Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a
failed attempt to seize Kyiv City, overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government, and forcibly
install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. Ukrainian forces, supported by a coalition of
allies including the United States and European partners, have since successfully pushed Russian forces
out of northern Ukraine and liberated significant territory in southern and northeastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksander Syrskyi reported on February 24 that Ukrainian forces
have regained more than 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces have occupied since February 24,
2022. ISW has observed confirmation that Ukrainian forces have regained 50.03 percent of the territory
that Russian forces had seized since February 24, 2022. Russian forces have spent the last year making
slow and incremental but steady advances in eastern Ukraine as a result of significant Russian manpower
and materiel advantages and Russia's ability to leverage delays in Western aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian
forces are using their technological advantages and integrating technological innovations with ground
operations in order to slow Russian gains. Ukraine continues to improve and innovate its warfighting
capabilities and is working to become self-sufficient in the long-term, but Western and international
military support for Ukraine in the short- and medium-term remains crucial for Ukraine's ability to
defend against Russian aggression. The defense of Ukraine and the preservation of Ukraine as an
independent, sovereign, and democratic country capable of defending itself against Russia is a critical
part of deterring broader Russian aggression against the West. The United States, Europe, and other
Western allies must demonstrate commitment to Ukraine through timely and reliable military assistance,
continue to enable Ukrainian forces to impose significant pressure on Russia, and force Putin to abandon
his conquest of Ukraine and his wider ambitions in Europe in order to bring about sustainable peace.
Russia has accumulated unsustainable personnel and vehicle losses in the last three years since
Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksander
Syrskyi reported on February 24 that Russian forces have lost over 10,100 tanks, 21,100 armored combat
vehicles, and 23,300 artillery systems presumably destroyed and damaged in the three years of Russia's
full-scale invasion. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) recently estimated
that Russia had lost about 14,000 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers since
February 2022. (IISS's numbers likely differ from those from Syrskyi as IISS data likely only accounts
for destroyed vehicles.) Syrskyi stated on February 24 that Russian forces have lost almost 870,000
personnel, including about 250,000 dead. Russian opposition outlets Meduza and Mediazona published a
joint report on February 24 wherein they used the Russian Register of Inheritance Cases (RND) to estimate
that at least 160,000 to 165,000 Russian servicemembers have died in the past three years of the war.
Syrskyi previously reported that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 alone, and
Meduza and Mediazone estimated in February 2024 that Russia had lost at least 66,000 to 88,000 personnel
during the first two years of the war — suggesting that Russian loses significantly increased in 2024.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have suffered vehicle and artillery system losses on the
battlefield that are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term given the limitations of Russia's defense
industrial capacity and Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks, and that Russia's force generation
apparatus is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to sustain Russia's current rate of offensive
operations and loss rates.
The United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a Ukrainian- and
European-backed resolution on February 24 commemorating the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale
invasion of Ukraine that recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in
Ukraine, and supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The United States, Russia,
Belarus, North Korea, and 14 other countries voted against the Ukrainian- and European-backed resolution,
while 93 countries supported it. The People’s Republic of China and Iran abstained. The United States
also abstained from a second resolution about the third anniversary of the war that it had proposed after
European countries amended the resolution to add language supporting Ukraine's "sovereignty,
independence, unity, and territorial integrity." The US-backed draft resolution — prior to the European
amendments — reportedly did not acknowledge Russia's role as the aggressor and referred to Russia's war
against Ukraine as the "Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict."
Key Takeaways:
• Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years
ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative
in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression.
• Russia has accumulated unsustainable
personnel and vehicles losses in the last three years since Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24,
2022.
• The United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a Ukrainian- and European-backed
resolution on February 24 commemorating the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
that recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in Ukraine, and supported
Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Recent polling indicates that Russians are
increasingly supportive of Russia continuing the war in Ukraine until it achieves complete Ukrainian
capitulation but are simultaneously starting to feel the economic toll of the three years of Russia's war
– casting doubt on Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to continue to balance "butter and guns" at
home in the medium- to long-term.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin currently remains
committed to continuing his war in Ukraine despite rising domestic political and economic pressure and
has shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender.
• Kremlin officials formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the
complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West on February 24, further underscoring Russia's unwillingness
to make compromises during future peace negotiations.
• European leaders announced a series of
new aid packages during their visit to Kyiv on February 24 for the third anniversary of the full-scale
invasion on February 24.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv
Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Kremlin continues to use Muslim religious and
cultural structures in Russia for military recruitment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the
legitimate president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information
operation that aims to destabilize Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian military from within. Putin gave
an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on February 24 in which Putin stated that "elections
in Ukraine are not held under the pretext of martial law" — Putin's first acknowledgment that Ukrainian
law prohibits elections during martial law. Putin claimed that Zelensky is "toxic" for Ukrainian society
and the Ukrainian military and that Zelensky would lose any future presidential election to other
Ukrainian political and military leaders. Putin's statements are likely aimed at Ukrainian and Russian
audiences. Putin's claims that Zelensky is unpopular and harmful to Ukraine are attempts to drive a wedge
between the legitimate government of Ukraine and the Ukrainian military and population. Putin has
repeatedly claimed that Zelensky is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine after Ukraine did not hold
elections in 2024 — in accordance with Ukrainian law — as part of Russian efforts to claim that Russia
cannot negotiate with Zelensky. US President Donald Trump has stated that Putin and Zelensky must engage
in negotiations, and Putin is likely shifting his rhetoric in order to explain to Russian domestic
audiences his decision to engage in any future negotiations with Zelensky. Putin and other Kremlin
officials will likely attempt to exploit any Ukrainian military setbacks or differing opinions among
Ukrainian officials to intensify this information operation and sow discord in Ukraine.
Putin
attempted to use new language to repackage the calls for regime change in Ukraine that he has demanded
since 2021. Putin stated during the interview with Zarubin that Russia "has nothing against" the
preservation of Ukrainian statehood but wants Ukraine to "turn into a friendly neighboring state" and for
Ukrainian territory to "not be used as a springboard for an attack against Russia" in the future. Putin's
calls for Ukraine to "turn" into a "friendly" state demonstrate that Putin is still calling for the
removal of the democratically elected government in Ukraine and the installation of a pro-Kremlin
government. The Kremlin has previously used thinly veiled calls for "denazification" to demand regime
change in Ukraine, and Putin appears to be using new language to make these same demands. Putin has
demanded Ukrainian regime change since Summer 2021.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian
President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate
president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information operation
that aims to destabilize Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian military from within.
• Putin
attempted to use new language to repackage the calls for regime change in Ukraine that he has demanded
since 2021.
• Putin offered to make a deal with the United States on Russian rare earth
minerals as part of efforts to outbid Ukraine on this matter and to push the United States to accept
Russian offers of economic measures in lieu of any actual Russian concessions on Ukraine.
• Putin attempted to claim that he supports Europe's participation in negotiations on Ukraine while
continuing to show his unwillingness to make concessions and seemingly proposing Russian allies as
possible future negotiating parties.
• Kremlin officials continue to exploit diplomatic
engagements with Russia's allies to reinforce Moscow's narrative that Russia invaded Ukraine to protect
Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine.
• A delegation from North Korea's Workers' Party of
Korea (WPK) arrived in Moscow on February 25 at the invitation of Russia's ruling party, United Russia,
amid reports that North Korea may be shipping more material to Russia.
• Western officials
continue to highlight the scale of European military aid to Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently
advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian forces recently
advanced near Kupyansk.
• Samara Oblast authorities reduced one-time payments to soldiers who
sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) after temporarily increasing
these payments in January 2025.
• The BBC Russian Service reported on February 25 that over
100 Russian government, military, and security officials accused and convicted of various corruption
charges are fighting in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to use its "Time of Heroes"
program, which places veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions, to form a new Russian elite
composed of loyal and ultranationalist veterans that will continue to militarize Russian society over the
long term.
• Russia may be reopening a Soviet-era submarine base in occupied Crimea.
US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White
House on February 28, likely to sign a US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published
ahead of the meeting does not provide US security assistance or security guarantees to Ukraine, however.
The Financial Times (FT) published a draft bilateral US-Ukrainian deal on February 26 that states that
the United States wants to "invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine" and
supports "Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" but does not
include any concrete US provisions of security assistance or guarantees to Ukraine. Continued US security
assistance to Ukraine is essential to help Ukraine set conditions for a lasting and just resolution of
the war that is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe.
Russian officials
directly involved in negotiations with the United States continue to insist that any peace agreement to
resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia’s 2021 demands. They also insist on the surrender to
Russia of territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold that is home to major cities and well over a
million people. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who recently led the Russian delegation at the
February 18 US-Russian negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, claimed on February 26 that negotiations
that result in freezing the current frontlines in Ukraine are impossible because the Russian Constitution
stipulates that Russia’s borders include all of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia
oblasts. Russia currently does not occupy large parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts and a
small part of western Luhansk Oblast. Lavrov also stated that Russia will reject any peace deal that
involves continued Western arms provisions to Ukraine. Lavrov is repackaging the maximalist demands
Russia has long made of Ukraine using a pseudo-legal facade, despite the illegitimacy of Russian
annexations of Ukrainian territory under international law. Lavrov likely attempted to justify Russia's
long-standing demands by framing the Russian Constitution as a legal and hence “necessary” element in
future negotiations with the United States. Russian officials have previously invoked “denazification,”
the alleged Ukrainian violations of Russian-speaking minorities’ rights, and the false historical
narrative that Ukraine is inherently part of Russia to justify their territorial claims against Ukraine
and to call for full Ukrainian capitulation.
Russia is demanding that Ukraine surrender
several large cities that Russian forces do not currently occupy and have no prospect of seizing, handing
over one million Ukrainians over to Russia. Russia’s occupation of the remainder of the four Ukrainian
oblasts would include large cities such as Kherson City (pre-war population of about 275,000), Kramatorsk
(147,00 people), and Zaporizhzhia City (706,000 people) — all of which remain under Ukrainian control.
The Russian occupation of such large population centers would significantly escalate the humanitarian
catastrophe in Ukraine. Russian authorities would likely employ the same tactics of oppression,
displacement, and forcible assimilation to Ukrainian civilians living in these areas as they have
employed against the millions of Ukrainians who have been living under Russian occupation for over three
years. Russian advances have recently stalled along the frontline, and Russian forces increasingly face
unsustainable vehicle and personnel losses, indicating that Russian forces will likely be unable to
occupy the full extent of these oblasts through military means in any short period of time if at all.
Lavrov’s rhetoric is likely an attempt to achieve through negotiations what the Russian military cannot
achieve by force. The Kremlin’s stated intent of seizing more of Ukraine's land and people directly
contradicts US and European efforts to achieve a sustainable and lasting peace in Ukraine and reinforces
Russia’s continued efforts to illegally occupy Ukrainian territory rather than to negotiate in good faith
or offer concessions.
Key Takeaways:
• US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on February 28, likely to sign a
US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published ahead of the meeting does not provide US
security assistance or security guarantees to Ukraine, however.
• Russian officials directly
involved in negotiations with the United States continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve
the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia’s 2021 demands. They also insist on the surrender to Russia of
territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold that is home to major cities and well over a million
people.
• Russia is demanding that Ukraine surrender several large cities that Russian forces
do not currently occupy and have no prospect of seizing, handing over one million Ukrainians over to
Russia.
• Lavrov's and other Kremlin officials' continued rejections of a ceasefire and other
terms that US President Donald Trump and European leaders have identified as necessary to achieve a
lasting peace in Ukraine demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains uninterested in
meaningful negotiations and assesses that he can achieve his war objectives militarily in the medium- to
long-term.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces
recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Robotyne.
• Russian officials proposed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) assume control over all
Russian pretrial detention facilities amid reports that the FSB is in charge of a pretrial detention
facility linked to the abuse of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials continue to reject US negotiating terms and
demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not occupy. Putin stated in his February 27
address to the Federal Security Service (FSB) board that Russia will continue to strengthen FSB
operations in Donbas and "Novorossiya." Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed on February
27 that Donbas and "Novorossiya" are an "integral" part of Russia. Putin and other Russian officials have
previously defined "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine (including Kharkiv,
Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts), although its precise borders are disputed among Russian
ultranationalists. Putin has previously demanded that Ukraine surrender all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson,
and Zaporizhia oblasts even though Russian forces do not occupy large parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and
Zaporizhia oblasts. Putin and other Russian officials have routinely indicated that they aim for
territorial conquest beyond the administrative boundaries of these four illegally annexed oblasts.
Renewed official Russian statements that the invented region of "Novorossiya" is part of Russia indicate
that Putin maintains his maximalist territorial ambitions and is unwilling to offer territorial
concessions. Russian forces currently occupy a small portion of Kharkiv Oblast and the Kinburn Spit in
Mykolaiv Oblast and are attempting to advance to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, and the Kremlin may
use the Russian occupation of limited territory in these oblasts as a false premise to demand that
Ukraine surrender even more territory. ISW continues to assess that Putin remains uninterested in
good-faith negotiations that require compromises and thinks that he can achieve his war objectives
militarily in the medium- to long-term. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on February 26 that if
Russia is "making maximalist demands that knowscan’t be met," then the United States will know
that Putin is not "serious" about engaging in negotiations. US President Donald Trump reiterated on
February 26 that Russia will have to make concessions in peace negotiations and reiterated on February 27
that the United States will "certainly try to get as much as can back ."
Kremlin guidelines to Russian state media about coverage of recent US–Russian meetings indicate
Russian President Vladimir Putin's determination to manipulate US President Donald Trump and divide the
West. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 27 that sources in Russian state media who
are close to the Russian presidential administration stated that the Kremlin has not given "strict"
instructions to media about how to cover recent US–Russian contacts. A source who regularly participates
in Kremlin meetings with major media editors reportedly stated that the Kremlin told media outlets to
emphasize "in every way" that Russia is in contact "not with some abstract Americans, but with Trump's
team" and to demonstrate that Trump is "a man who was oppressed in every way both at home and in Europe."
Multiple sources reportedly told Verstka that they had received instructions to create an image of Trump
as a man who "had the wisdom" to respond to the Kremlin's "outstretched" hand. Putin praised the Trump
administration on February 27, claiming that Russia's first contacts with the administration "inspire
certain hopes" and that the Trump team is displaying a "reciprocal determination" to restore US–Russian
relations. Putin claimed that "ideological cliches" have started to "destroy the Western community ...
from within," as evidenced by alleged problems in Western states' economies and domestic politics. Putin
claimed that "some Western elites" are trying to "maintain instability" in the world and will try to
"disrupt or compromise" the US–Russian dialogue that has begun. Putin's claim that "some Western elites"
— but not the Trump administration — are against US–Russian talks is likely an attempt to drive wedges
between Trump and other US actors and European leaders. The Kremlin has similarly recently framed
European leaders as interested in prolonging the war in Ukraine as part of efforts to falsely portray the
US and European positions on negotiations as significantly different and to discredit any possible
European role in negotiations.
US and Russian delegations met in Istanbul, Turkey on February
27 to continue to discuss US–Russian bilateral diplomatic relations. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov
claimed on February 27 that the Russian delegation in Istanbul is working to develop the agreements
reached during the February 18 US–Russian talks in Saudi Arabia. Kremlin newswire TASS reported that the
bilateral meeting would include discussions on the resumption of the work of the US and Russian embassies
in each state. Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) correspondent Denis
Davydov claimed that Director of the North American Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) Alexander Darchiev headed the Russian delegation in Istanbul. Darchiev served as the Russian
Ambassador to Canada from 2014 to 2021. Russian business outlet Kommersant reported in November 2024 that
three informed sources stated that Darchiev is the most likely candidate to become the new Russian
Ambassador to the United States. Peskov stated in November 2024 that the Kremlin had chosen a candidate
and would announce the appointment "in the foreseeable future." The Russian State Duma reportedly held
closed consultations in November 2024 with Darchiev about the appointments of Russian diplomats abroad.
Reuters reported on February 27 that a US official stated that Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs Sonata Coulter led the US delegation in Istanbul.
The Kremlin is
reportedly continuing to push the United States to accept economic benefits that are unrelated to the war
in Ukraine in return for Ukrainian and Western concessions that are related to the war. Bloomberg, citing
a source familiar with the topic, reported on February 27 that CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
(RDIF) and newly appointed Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation
with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev — who was part of the Russian delegation during the February 18
US–Russian talks in Saudi Arabia — convinced Putin to seek negotiations with the United States through
business opportunities. The Kremlin reportedly viewed US President Donald Trump's interest in a mineral
deal with Ukraine as a chance to initiate economic cooperation discussions between the United States and
Russia, giving Dmitriev an opportunity to take the lead on such initiatives.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials continue to reject US negotiating
terms and demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not occupy.
• Kremlin
guidelines to Russian state media about coverage of recent US–Russian meetings indicate Russian President
Vladimir Putin's determination to manipulate US President Donald Trump and divide the West.
• US and Russian delegations met in Istanbul, Turkey on February 27 to continue to discuss US–Russian
bilateral diplomatic relations.
• The Kremlin is reportedly continuing to push the United
States to accept economic benefits that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine in return for Ukrainian and
Western concessions that are related to the war.
• North Korea reportedly recently deployed
additional troops to Kursk Oblast as North Korea continues to expand its military capabilities through
cooperation with Russia.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump held a contentious meeting at the
White House on February 28. Zelensky observed that Russia has repeatedly violated previous ceasefire
agreements, as ISW has reported. Zelensky said that Ukraine will not accept a ceasefire agreement with
Russia without sufficient external security guarantees, as such an agreement will fail to preserve
Ukraine's sovereignty and prevent war in Europe in the long-term. Zelensky stated that Russian strikes
have not "completely destroyed" Ukraine and that Ukraine is "alive" and continuing to defend itself
against Russian aggression. Zelensky reiterated that no country wants to end the war more than Ukraine
and that any negotiations to end the war will be between Ukraine and Russia with US and European
mediation efforts. Trump declined to comment on the possibility of future US security guarantees for
Ukraine and US troop deployments to Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Zelensky to
leave the White House following the meeting, and the White House cancelled the afternoon press conference
and the signing of the US-Ukraine mineral deal. ISW continues to assess that supporting Ukraine is a
vital American national security interest, as is a strong bilateral relationship between the United
States and Ukraine.
Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American
adversaries despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to
negotiations with the United States. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met separately with
People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping and PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on
February 28 to discuss bilateral security issues and international and regional matters. Shoigu and Xi
also underlined the need to continue coordinating efforts at key international platforms including BRICS
and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and diplomatic efforts about "solving the Ukrainian
crisis." Shoigu claimed that the Russia-PRC relationship has reached "unprecedented" heights, and Russian
state media highlighted statements from Xi and PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Lin
Jian's praise of close bilateral relations.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson and
Chairperson of the ruling United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev met with North Korea's Workers' Party (WPK)
Central Committee member Ri Hi-yong on February 26 in Moscow to express United Russia's desire "for
closer cooperation with the WPK and for expanding contracts and exchanges in all areas." Russian
President Vladimir Putin met with Ri on February 27, but the Kremlin's readout did not provide further
details about the meeting. Representatives of the Kursk Oblast Chamber of Commerce signed a cooperation
agreement with the Pyongyang Chamber of Commerce on February 27 to develop bilateral economic ties and
expand municipal production opportunities between Kursk Oblast and North Korean enterprises. The
agreement also includes trade and economic ties; cooperation in industry, agriculture, and processing;
and joint logistical projects. Russia continues to range itself with adversaries of the United States,
underscoring the importance of strengthening and supporting US allies and partners, including Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump
held a contentious meeting at the White House on February 28.
• Russia continues to showcase
its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's effort to
posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States.
• Russia continues to
range itself with adversaries of the United States, underscoring the importance of strengthening and
supporting US allies and partners, including Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials are increasing
cooperation with South Korea amid deepening Russia-North Korea ties and recent reports of a new wave of
North Korean troop deployments to Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against
near-rear Russian military assets in occupied Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) announced on February 28 that the United States approved current MFA North American
Department Director Alexander Darchiev's appointment as Russia's Ambassador to the United States.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka and in western
Zaporizhia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked Crimea occupation head Sergey Aksyonov
with establishing a "Kadry" ("Human Resources") national project to integrate Russian veterans into the
Russian economy, likely in support of the Kremlin's efforts to prevent the emergence of subversive
veteran civil societies.
Senior US officials are suggesting that the United States may cut all aid to Ukraine, although US
President Donald Trump has not indicated any such intention. Cutting the current flow of aid to Ukraine
would directly undermine President Trump’s stated goal of achieving a sustainable peace in Ukraine. The
New York Times and Washington Post, citing unnamed senior Trump Administration officials, reported on
February 28 that the Trump Administration is considering canceling all US military assistance to Ukraine,
including any final aid shipments that former US President Joe Biden approved.
Ukrainian
forces, enabled by essential US assistance, are inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while
holding them to marginal gains. This situation, combined with the severe challenges Russia will face in
2025, offers the United States great leverage in peace negotiations. A suspension of ongoing US military
assistance to Ukraine would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue to increase his
demands and fuel his conviction that he can achieve total victory through war. ISW has repeatedly
highlighted the importance of continued and timely Western military assistance to Ukraine and observed a
correlation between the magnitude of the Russian gains in Ukraine and delays or halts in Western military
support. Ukrainian forces have leveraged US-supplied military systems, including Patriot air defense
systems and HIMARS and ATACMS long-range strike systems, to defend against nightly Russian drone and
missile strikes, enhance Ukraine's strike capabilities, complicate Russian logistics and command and
control (C2), and disrupt Russia's defense industrial base (DIB). Ukrainian efforts, aided by the steady
flow of Western aid, have significantly slowed Russian advances along the front, inflicted significant
Russian personnel and equipment losses, and undermined Russia's efforts to project economic and domestic
stability amid rising pressures from the war. Russia's economic, force generation, and defense industrial
constraints provide key opportunities that Ukraine, the United States, and its Western allies could
leverage to extract concessions from Putin in peace negotiations.
The cessation of US military
assistance and monetary assistance aimed at strengthening Ukraine's defense industry could help tip the
balance of the war and give Russia greater advantages on the battlefield in Ukraine, increasing the
likelihood of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Russia would leverage the cessation of US aid to Ukraine to
seize more territory in Ukraine and attempt to exhaust European support – the approach Putin has outlined
in his theory of victory. Ending US aid to Ukraine and enabling further Russian gains would also embolden
Putin and strengthen his belief that Russia can seize and control Ukraine and other former Soviet
countries, including current NATO member states. The Kremlin will likely intensify its military campaign
in Ukraine and attempt to exploit any delay or cessation of US military assistance to Ukraine - as the
Kremlin did in Spring 2024.
Curtailing aid to Ukraine would risk diminishing US influence in
the world and emboldening US adversaries. Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China
(PRC) have formed a bloc aimed at defeating the United States and its allies around the world and are
currently testing the limits of US commitment to its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the
Asia-Pacific region. PRC President Xi Jinping stated during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir
Putin in late February 2025 that the PRC and Russia are "true friends" who "cannot be moved away" from
each other and will not be influenced by "any third party." Russia established bilateral comprehensive
strategic partnership agreements since the start of the war with the PRC in May 2023, North Korea in
October 2024, and Iran in January 2025. Putin continues to rely on Iranian drones and North Korean
ballistic missiles and troops in his war against Ukraine. US aid to Ukraine is a demonstration of the
United States' commitment to defending democracies against ongoing and future aggression around the
world, including but not limited to Ukraine, Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Russia-led bloc will
likely see the United States abandoning Ukraine as an indicator that the United States will abandon its
other allies and will seek to test the limits of US commitment around the world. The Russia-led bloc is
searching for easily exploitable divisions between the United States and its allies to isolate and weaken
the United States on the global stage, allowing adversaries to rise up and dictate where and how the
United States can engage the world. Cutting US aid to Ukraine plays directly into these adversaries'
goals and is a step toward curtailing US influence in the world.
Putin, not Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky, remains the main obstacle to a lasting peace agreement on Ukraine. Zelensky
has continuously reiterated his commitment to obtaining a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through
negotiations. Zelensky has indicated several times — including in his February 28 Fox News interview —
that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraine's NATO membership, and even his own tenure
in office to secure a just and sustainable peace. These concessions align with US Secretary of State
Marco Rubio's February 26 statement that "what Ukraine really needs is deterrence...to make it costly for
anyone to come after them again in the future" and that both the United States and Europe "can be
involved" in such deterrence efforts.
Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have by
contrast continuously reiterated their commitment to Putin's initial war aims in Ukraine, which amount to
Ukraine's full capitulation, replacing the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet
government, and Ukrainian commitments to neutrality and demilitarization — all of which would leave
Ukraine nearly helpless against future Russian aggression and destabilization efforts. Putin and other
Kremlin officials are repackaging these demands in efforts to appear willing to negotiate in good faith
with the United States, likely to extract concessions from the United States regarding Ukraine. Achieving
a meaningful peace in Ukraine will require the United States and its allies to help Ukraine continue to
inflict significant losses on Russia and to undertake a diplomatic and economic pressure campaign aimed
at forcing Putin to abandon his insistence on full Ukrainian surrender and efforts to weaken Europe and
the United States.
Key Takeaways:
• Senior US officials are suggesting that the
United States may cut all aid to Ukraine, although US President Donald Trump has not indicated any such
intention. Cutting the current flow of aid to Ukraine would directly undermine President Trump’s stated
goal of achieving a sustainable peace in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces enabled by essential US
assistance are inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while holding them to marginal gains.
This situation, combined with the severe challenges Russia will face in 2025, offers the US great
leverage in peace negotiations. A suspension of ongoing US military assistance to Ukraine would encourage
Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue to increase his demands and fuel his conviction that he can
achieve total victory through war.
• Curtailing aid to Ukraine would risk diminishing US
influence in the world and emboldening US adversaries.
• Putin, not Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky, remains the main obstacle to a lasting peace agreement on Ukraine.
• The
Kremlin launched another informational effort intended to discourage additional US and European military
assistance to Ukraine by claiming that Russia has won the war in Ukraine.
• European countries
remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian military and defense industry, however, amid preparations
for a European defense summit about Ukraine on March 2.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced
near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to recruit medically unfit soldiers in an effort to address personnel
shortages.
Recent Russian official statements in response to the proposed US-Ukraine mineral deal indicate that the
Kremlin is trying to sabotage the deal through narratives targeting Ukrainian and American audiences. The
Kremlin is claiming that this mineral deal does not benefit Ukraine while also claiming that Russia can
make a better offer to the United States, indicating that Moscow sees the deal as harmful to its
objectives. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded on February 23 to a question about the
US-Ukraine mineral deal and whether US pressure would push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to
"finally sell out all of Ukraine," including Russia's illegally annexed territories in Ukraine.<1> Peskov
claimed that the people in occupied Ukraine decided "long ago" that they wanted to join Russia so "no one
will ever sell off these territories" — implying that Zelensky may "sell out" other areas of Ukraine.
Russian state television evening news program Vesti claimed on February 24 that the United States is
"blackmailing" Ukraine with the mineral deal.<2> A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on
February 22 that "there is nothing good for Kyiv" in a new version of the US-Ukraine mineral deal.<3> The
milblogger claimed that the mineral deal is "humiliating" for Ukraine and that Zelensky would be "selling
the benefits of his country for nothing" should he sign the deal.
Kremlin officials are also
trying to prevent the United States and Ukraine from concluding a mineral deal by making competing
offers. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on February 24 that
Russia has an "order of magnitude" more rare earth materials than Ukraine and stated that Russia can
cooperate with both the US government and US companies in capital investment projects for rare earth
materials.<4> Putin referred to mineral reserves both within Russia and within occupied Ukraine in his
attempts to appeal to the United States to invest in "Russian" rare earth minerals (claiming minerals in
occupied Ukraine as Russia's own). Putin also offered to conclude deals with the United States on the
supply of Russian aluminum. CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and newly appointed Special
Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill
Dmitriev told CNN on February 24 that Russia is open to economic cooperation with the United States, that
the first stage of cooperation would be in the energy sphere, and that such cooperation is key for a
"more resilient global economy."<5>
Russian state media is delaying coverage of select Kremlin
statements in order to exploit changing dynamics in the US-Ukrainian relationship and drive wedges
between Ukraine and the United States. Zarubin and Russian state media outlets TASS and RIA Novosti
amplified on March 2 a previous statement from Peskov about the US decision on February 24 to vote
alongside Russia against a Ukrainian- and European-backed UN resolution that recognized Russia as the
aggressor in the war.<6> Peskov claimed on February 26 that the Trump administration is "rapidly
changing" all of its foreign policies in ways that "largely coincide with vision," but TASS,
RIA Novosti, and Zarubin only reported Peskov's statements on March 2.<7> Russian state media headlines
on March 2 deliberately misrepresented Peskov's statements such that they appeared to be in response to
the February 28 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky.<8>
The Kremlin has a vested interest in preventing the United States and Ukraine
from signing a mineral deal, as the deal will commit the United States to a long-term investment in
Ukraine and Ukraine's sovereignty. The Kremlin is investing significant time and effort into undermining
and misrepresenting the US-Ukrainian mineral deal, indicating that the Kremlin views the deal as an
impediment to accomplishing Russian President Vladimir Putin's objectives in Ukraine.<9> The mineral
deal, even one that does not include text about an American security guarantees for Ukraine, will
represent a long-term US economic investment in Ukraine and could be a building block towards additional
US assistance or military sales to Ukraine in the future, as US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent
observed in an interview to CBS on March 2.<10> Any agreement that ties the United States to an
independent and sovereign Ukraine is contrary to Russia's long-term goals of isolating and conquering
Ukraine. Putin likely assesses that preventing the US-Ukrainian mineral deal is a necessary step towards
pushing the United States into stopping military assistance to Ukraine and abandoning Ukraine altogether.
Putin's articulated theory of victory in Ukraine — which assumes that Russia can continue slow, gradual
advances in exchange for significant personnel and materiel losses — rests on the assumption that Russia
can outlast and overcome US and European security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize
its economy and population to support its defense.<11> Putin is likely attempting to undermine the
US-Ukrainian mineral deal in order to prevent deepening US-Ukraine ties in the hope that Russia will be
able to destroy or extract significant territorial concessions from Ukraine during future negotiations
before Russia's own wartime economic and force generation issues begin to significantly impede Russia
ability to advance on the battlefield in 2025 and beyond.<12>
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov is attempting to exploit discussions between the United States and the EU about the possible
deployment of European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a future peace settlement in order to
reinvigorate the Kremlin's demands for regime change in Ukraine. Lavrov claimed on March 2 that plans to
introduce European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine in the future are a continuation of European leaders'
supposed efforts to "incite" Ukraine to "war against ."<13> Lavrov claimed that the West brought
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to power using "bayonets" and will use future peacekeeping forces
as "bayonets" to "prop up" Zelensky. Lavrov claimed that Europe wants to continue the war in Ukraine
through these peacekeeping forces whereas the United States is openly stating its desire to end the
war.<14> Lavrov claimed that the introduction of peacekeepers to Ukraine would not eliminate the "root
causes" of the war.<15> Lavrov has previously defined the "root causes" of the war as NATO's alleged
violation of obligations not to expand eastward and the Ukrainian government's alleged discrimination
against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine.<16> The Kremlin has recently
attempted to use this phrase to justify its calls for regime change in Ukraine. Lavrov is exploiting the
ongoing discussions in the West about the deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine in the future to make yet
another argument for Russia's longstanding demand for regime change. Lavrov and other Kremlin officials
have recently engaged in rhetoric similarly attempting to exacerbate US-European divisions and falsely
portraying European countries as wanting to continue the war in Ukraine.<17> The Kremlin is likely
attempting to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe to extract concessions in Russia's favor
in future peace negotiations and other talks.<18>
European leaders demonstrated their
commitment to supporting Ukraine at a defense summit in London on March 2. The United Kingdom (UK) hosted
leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Canada,
Finland, Sweden, Czechia, and Romania as well as the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Hakan Fidan, NATO
General Secretary Mark Rutte, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President of
the European Council Antonio Costa.<19> UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced at the summit that the
UK and France, along with other unspecified countries, have expressed their commitment to develop a
"coalition of the willing" that will deploy peacekeepers to defend a peace agreement in Ukraine.<20>
Starmer revealed at the summit a plan aimed at assisting Ukraine: keeping military aid flowing while the
war continues and increasing economic pressure on Russia; ensuring that any peace deal upholds Ukraine's
sovereignty and security and that Ukraine is at the negotiating table; and committing European leaders to
aim to deter any future invasion of Ukraine.<21> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the
defense summit was dedicated to Ukraine and a common European future and noted that "European unity is at
an extremely high level."<22> Zelensky stated that Ukraine is continuing discussions about security
guarantees and conditions for a just peace with partner states and is working with Europe to create a
"reliable basis of cooperation" with the United States about Ukrainian peace and guaranteed security.
Zelensky met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the
development of a joint action plan to end the war in Ukraine.<23> Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem
Umerov also met with UK Defense Secretary John Healey on the sidelines to discuss the UK's readiness to
increase military assistance to Ukraine, the prospect of purchasing weapons with profits from frozen
Russian assets, and the UK's role in the Ramstein format.<24>
European countries announced
additional military assistance packages for Ukraine before and during the summit. The UK announced on
March 1 a loan worth 2.6 billion pounds (roughly $3.2 billion) to bolster Ukraine's defense backed by
profits from frozen Russian assets.<25> The UK stated that the first tranche of the loan will arrive
later next week. Zelensky stated that the UK loan will fund Ukrainian weapons production.<26> Starmer
announced on March 2 an additional 1.6 billion pound (roughly $2 billion) deal that will allow Ukraine to
purchase 5,000 lightweight-multirole missiles from the UK.<27> The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense (MoD)
announced on March 1 that it will allocate 20 million euros (roughly $20.7 million) to purchasing
Ukrainian-produced weapons for Ukraine and to develop a joint weapons production facility in
Lithuania.<28>
Key Takeaways:
Recent Russian official statements in response to the
proposed US-Ukraine mineral deal indicate that the Kremlin is trying to sabotage the deal through
narratives targeting Ukrainian and American audiences. The Kremlin is claiming that this mineral deal
does not benefit Ukraine while also claiming that Russia can make a better offer to the United States,
indicating that Moscow sees the deal as harmful to its objectives. The Kremlin has a vested interest
in preventing the United States and Ukraine from signing a mineral deal, as the deal will commit the
United States to a long-term investment in Ukraine and Ukraine's sovereignty. Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov is attempting to exploit discussions between the United States and the EU about
the possible deployment of European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a future peace settlement
in order to reinvigorate the Kremlin's demands for regime change in Ukraine. European leaders
demonstrated their commitment to supporting Ukraine at a defense summit in London on March 2. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka
Novosilka.
Ich fühle mich überhaupt zurückerinnert an meinen Geschichtsunterricht in der Schule, als über die
Kolonialisierungszeit vor dem 1. Weltkrieg gesprochen wurde. Ich hab das Gefühl, dass sich diese
Geschichte in abgeänderter Form (anderer Technologiestandard, anderer Fokus bei Landeinnahme) wiederholt.
Ukraine, Grönland, Panama, Gaza, vielleicht dann in weiterer Folge Moldawien, Georgien. China
kolonialisiert Afrika und Teile Asiens mit wirtschaftlicher Totalabhängigkeit. Irgendwie gruselig.
>Es wird ungemütlich in Europa. Trump würde den Russen damit >Europa als leicht verdaulichen
Leckerbissen servieren und >bekommt dafür freie Hand in Kanada und Grönland?
Ich
dachte, er möchte, dass die Europäer (mehr) Waren aus den USA kaufen. Mit Europa unter Russland wird das
nicht gelingen.
Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine
and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about 40,000 personnel compared to late 2024. Ukrainian Main Military
Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated in an interview with
RBK-Ukraine published on March 3 that there are 620,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast,
about 200,000 of whom are actively fighting on the frontline. Skibitskyi stated that there are roughly
35,000 additional Rosgvardia troops protecting rear areas and that these personnel can become a second
line of defense if necessary. Skibitskyi stated in November 2024 there were about 580,000 Russian
soldiers operating against Ukraine (presumably both within Ukraine and in Kursk Oblast), and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in January 2025 that the total Russian force grouping in Ukraine was
about 600,000 troops.
Russian authorities reportedly exceeded their recruitment quotas in 2024
and January 2025, likely in part due to increased financial incentives for recruits and prison
recruitment efforts that are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term. Skibitskyi reported on March 3
that Russian authorities recruited 440,000 military personnel in 2024 — 10,000 more than their quota for
the year — and fulfilled their January 2025 recruitment quota by 107 percent. Russian Security Council
Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev also claimed in late December 2024 that 440,000 recruits signed
military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in 2024. Russian President Vladimir
Putin signed a decree in July 2024 awarding 400,000 rubles (roughly $4,400) to anyone who signed a
contract with the Russian MoD between August 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024 - more than double the
previous federal award of 195,000 rubles (roughly $2,100). This increased federal reward likely
contributed to Russia's successful recruitment drive in 2024. Russian federal subjects offered additional
high regional bonuses to those who signed military service contracts in late 2024 and early 2025, but
select federal subjects have started to reduce these regional payments following the expiration of these
limited time offers, indicating that such measures are not sustainable indefinitely. Skibitskyi stated
that 15 percent of Russian recruits in 2024 were people under criminal investigation, in prison, or
serving suspended sentences and that this figure will increase to roughly 30 percent in 2025. Russian
officials reported in 2024 that Russia was shutting down some prisons after Russia's prison population
significantly dropped due to the Russian prison recruitment drives. Russia has recently been increasingly
recruiting defendants in pretrial detention centers, likely as the pool of prison recruits has dwindled.
ISW continues to assess that increased military spending, including large payments and benefits to
Russian servicemembers, is hurting the Russian economy at the macro level and that the Kremlin is
reducing this spending on military personnel as part of efforts to mitigate the impacts of such
initiatives. Russian authorities are unlikely to sustain such high financial incentives as part of their
recruitment drives in the medium- and long-term as the Russian economy continues to decline.
Skibitskyi noted that Russian authorities have previously adjusted their annual quotas throughout the
year, having originally called for Russian authorities to recruit 375,000 to 380,000 personnel in 2024
before increasing this number to 430,000. Adjustments to the 2024 recruitment quotas were likely meant to
account for Russia's increased tempo of offensive operations in the last few months of 2024 that resulted
in the highest casualty rates Russia experienced since early 2022. Skibitskyi concluded that Russia's
recruitment plans for 2025 will "mostly" allow the Russian military command to replace its battlefield
losses should the current tempo of offensive operations and losses continue. Russian authorities will
likely have to adjust their 2025 quotas as they did in 2024 should they want the current tempo of
offensive operations to continue and should Russian forces continue to suffer high losses while advancing
at a slower rate. Russian authorities are unlikely to generate enough forces to significantly increase
the tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine in the near future. Continued Western military aid
would help Ukrainian forces inflict additional losses on the Russian military that would likely intensify
Russia's economic and military issues and force Putin into making concessions during meaningful
negotiations in 2025.
Key Takeaways:
• Ukrainian military intelligence indicated
that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about
40,000 personnel compared to late 2024.
• Russian authorities reportedly exceeded their
recruitment quotas in 2024 and January 2025, likely in part due to increased financial incentives for
recruits and prison recruitment efforts that are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term.
• Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and leverage larger numbers of Shahed and
decoy drones in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine's air defense umbrella.
• Russian missile
production has reportedly not significantly increased, but Russian forces appear to be prioritizing
production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defenses.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka
Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to promote its "Time of Heroes"
veterans' program as part of efforts to militarize the Russian government and society.
US President Donald Trump ordered a pause on US military aid to Ukraine on March 3, suspending the
delivery of critical warfighting materiel. An anonymous White House official told the Wall Street Journal
on March 3 that the United States is "pausing and reviewing" military aid to Ukraine until Trump
"determines that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is making a good-faith effort towards peace
negotiations with Russia." The White House official did not provide clarification about what conditions
the White House is expecting Zelensky to meet in order to resume aid.
The United States had
been providing Ukraine with artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defense
batteries, and long-range rocket and missile systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS — many of which are
sophisticated systems that only the United States can supply Pauses in this aid will harm Ukraine's
warfighting capabilities, although it will likely take from weeks to months for the suspension of US aid
to affect the frontline. Western officials estimated in late February 2025 that Ukraine will be able to
sustain its current pace of operations until about mid-2025 (roughly June 2025) as long as the United
States continues to provide the aid contracted under the Biden administration on the previously
anticipated timelines. A Ukrainian official told CNN on March 4 following the suspension that Ukraine may
run out of US-provided artillery shells by May or June 2025 but warned that Patriot air defense missiles
could run out "in a matter of weeks." Ukraine relies heavily on US Patriot systems for its air defense
umbrella to protect against Russian missile strikes against Ukraine's rear areas. The shortage and
eventual lack of Patriot missiles is likely to have severe impacts on the safety of Ukraine's critical,
industrial, and civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine's other supporters lack an analogous system that can
protect against Russian missile strikes, particularly those including ballistic missiles. As Ukraine runs
short on Patriot missiles, Kyiv will have to make difficult decisions about which population centers to
prioritize in terms of air defense protection. If it runs out of Patriots entirely then Ukrainian cities
will lie open to Russian ballistic missiles.
Key Takeaways:
• US President Donald
Trump ordered a pause on US military aid to Ukraine on March 3, suspending the delivery of critical
warfighting materiel.
• The United States had been providing Ukraine with artillery
ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries, and long-range rocket and
missile systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS — many of which are sophisticated systems that only the United
States can supply.
• The frontline in Ukraine does not risk imminent collapse, but the
effects of the US aid pause will become more acute over time.
• The European Commission
proposed a plan on March 4 that would enable EU member states to increase defense spending to support
Ukraine and strengthen European security. European rearmament is vital for Europe's short- and long-term
security, and Europe should pursue these efforts regardless of the status of US aid to Ukraine.
• Ukraine has significantly expanded its defense industrial production capabilities throughout the war
in an effort to eventually meet its military needs independently, but Ukraine's ability to become
self-sufficient in the long-term is contingent on continued support from partner states in the short- and
medium-term.
• The Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky reiterated on March 4 Ukraine's commitment to work with the Trump Administration to achieve a
sustainable and lasting peace in Ukraine.
• The high casualties in Russia's war in Ukraine
are the direct result of Putin's determination to conquer all of Ukraine using horrific and costly
tactics, and Putin can dramatically reduce this killing any time he chooses
• The Kremlin
continues to express cautious optimism about the pausing of US military aid to Ukraine and advanced
several narratives as part of efforts to impose additional demands on the United States.Russian forces
recently advanced near Lyman, and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces
recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly
developing a plan to partially demobilize a limited number of mobilized personnel no earlier than July
2025, likely to address growing societal backlash over the lack of rotations and demobilization of
Russian mobilized troops for over two years.
>The shortage and eventual lack of Patriot missiles is likely to have >severe impacts on the
safety of Ukraine's critical, industrial, and >civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine's other
supporters lack an >analogous system that can protect against Russian missile strikes
Patriots hat aber so ziemlich jeder NATO-Staat. Kurzfristig könnten die aus ihren Beständen liefern und
beim Hersteller nachbestellen, solange die USA das nicht untersagen.
>>The shortage and eventual lack of Patriot missiles is >likely to have >>severe impacts on the safety of Ukraine's critical, >industrial, and >>civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine's other supporters >lack an >>analogous
system that can protect against Russian missile >strikes > >Patriots hat aber so
ziemlich jeder NATO-Staat. Kurzfristig >könnten die aus ihren Beständen liefern und beim
Hersteller >nachbestellen, solange die USA das nicht untersagen.
Aber die Frage
ist halt Lieferzeit? Ganz auf Null Bestand werden die alle nicht gehen wollen.
>>Patriots hat aber so ziemlich jeder NATO-Staat. >Kurzfristig >>könnten
die aus ihren Beständen liefern und beim >Hersteller >>nachbestellen, solange die USA
das nicht untersagen. > > >Aber die Frage ist halt Lieferzeit? Ganz auf Null
Bestand >werden die alle nicht gehen wollen.
Ich denke, dass man jetzt sowieso wieder
mehr auf den Verhandlungstisch zurück muss und anstatt sich auf weitere Waffenlieferungen(ohne USA!) zu
konzentrieren.
>Patriots hat aber so ziemlich jeder NATO-Staat. Kurzfristig >könnten die aus ihren Beständen
liefern und beim Hersteller >nachbestellen, solange die USA das nicht untersagen.
Aber
gibt ja keiner her, wie man sieht. In Zeiten wie diesen will keiner die eigene Verteidigung
vernachlässigen.
Ok, Israel gibt einige her, die haben mittlerweile ihr eigenes, besseres
System. Aber lange genug waren die Patriots unverzichtbar.
The Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, one of many demands the Kremlin has
made of the US, Ukraine, and Ukraine's other supporters. Details about the US suspension of intelligence
sharing with Ukraine vary in different reports, but the Trump administration has suspended some level of
intelligence sharing with Ukraine with some reporting indicating that the suspension affected all
intelligence sharing. Western media reported that the Trump administration specifically suspended the
sharing of intelligence that Ukraine uses for early warning systems to protect against Russian long-range
missile and drone strikes, for target designation for HIMARS Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems
(GMLRS) strikes, and for target designation for long-range strikes within Russia. British outlet Daily
Mail reported that the United States also prohibited the United Kingdom from sharing US intelligence with
Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted on an end to the provision of all foreign assistance to
Ukraine as part of any peace agreement, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov March 4 specifically
stated on March 4 that the United States provides Ukraine with intelligence data such as satellite
reconnaissance data.
The suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine will damage
Ukraine's ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks against military and civilian targets.
Ukrainian forces have leveraged their ability to strike within Russia and destroy significant amounts of
materiel in order to increase pressure on Russia. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian missile and
ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast on the night of September 17 to 18, 2024,
destroying two to three months of Russia’s ammunition supply. The Toropets facility also stored Iskander
missiles, Tochka-U ballistic missiles, glide bombs, and artillery ammunition. Ukrainian forces struck the
Tikhoretsk Arsenal just north of Kamenny, Krasnodar Krai on the night of September 20 to 21, 2024, which
at the time contained at least 2,000 tons of munitions, including munitions from North Korea. Russian
forces previously leveraged their quantitative artillery ammunition advantage and glide bomb strikes to
facilitate battlefield gains by destroying settlements before deploying infantry to attack the area —
most notably near Avdiivka in February 2024 during delays in US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian
strikes on Russian missile and ammunition storage facilities have previously relieved pressure on
Ukrainian forces across the frontline by preventing Russian forces from leveraging their artillery
advantage to secure gains. Ukrainian strikes against military targets in Russia also pushed Russian
aviation operations further from Ukraine into Russia's rear areas, hindering Russia's ability to conduct
glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian frontline positions from Russian airspace. Ukraine's
inability to conduct ATACMS and HIMARS strikes against Russian air defense systems within Russia and
occupied Ukraine will likely impact how close to the frontline Russian pilots are willing to operate and
expand Russia's ability to effectively use glide bombs against both frontline areas and near rear
Ukrainian cities.
The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow
Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting
millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB). US
intelligence has contributed to Ukraine's early warning system against Russian strikes against Ukrainian
cities, allowing Ukrainian authorities and civilians to prepare once Russian forces launch missiles and
drones. The suspension of US intelligence on Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear, coupled with the
US suspension of supplies of Patriot air defense missiles that Ukraine relies upon to defend against
Russian ballistic missiles, would have severe impacts on the safety of Ukrainian rear areas.
Russian drone and missile strikes have heavily targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure and DIB. The
likely intensification of these strikes following the US suspension of military aid and intelligence
sharing to Ukraine will hinder Ukraine's ongoing progress towards expanding its DIB to be able to supply
the Ukrainian military with all of its materiel needs. A self-sufficient Ukrainian DIB would allow
Ukraine to defend itself over the long-term with dramatically reduced foreign military assistance, and it
is in America's core national security interests that Ukraine be able to continue its efforts towards
self-sufficiency.
The Trump administration has been applying considerable pressure on Ukraine,
whose leaders continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting
end to the war. These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States
needs to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of
the United States, Ukraine, and Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 4 that
"Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer."
Zelensky also offered to exchange Ukrainian and Russian prisoners of war (POWs), to ban missile and
long-range drone strikes against energy and civilian infrastructure, and to reach an immediate truce in
the Black Sea. Zelensky has indicated several times — including in his February 28 Fox News interview —
that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraine's NATO membership, and his own tenure in
office in order to secure a just and sustainable peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin and numerous
Kremlin officials have, in contrast, offered no meaningful concessions. They continuously repeat demands
that amount to complete Ukrainian capitulation as well as the rolling back of NATO from Eastern
Europe.
Russia's war effort in Ukraine has brought about a series of materiel, manpower, and
economic challenges for Moscow that will worsen in the coming months if Ukraine is able to sustain its
defensive military operations. The United States should leverage these Russian challenges in order to
secure concessions necessary to achieve a just and sustainable peace. US policies suspending military aid
and intelligence sharing to Ukraine reduce the leverage US President Donald Trump's needs to achieve his
stated policy objective of bringing about an end to the war in Ukraine on acceptable terms, a task that
requires increasing pressure on Russia, not Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
• The Trump
administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, one of many demands the Kremlin has made of
the US, Ukraine, and Ukraine's other supporters.
• The suspension of US intelligence sharing
with Ukraine will damage Ukraine's ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks against
military and civilian targets.
• The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine
would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear,
affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
• The Trump administration has been applying considerable pressure on Ukraine, whose leaders
continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting end to the war.
These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get
Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United
States, Ukraine, and Europe.
• Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage
of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
• Russian officials continue inaccurately to place the blame on Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky — and not Russian President Vladimir Putin — for the lack of meaningful peace negotiations.
• Kremlin officials continue to use business incentives to make further demands of the United
States and to push the United States to de facto recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Over 50,000 Russian
servicemembers are reportedly listed as having abandoned their units and are absent without leave (AWOL)
between February 2022 and mid-December 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions
in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. Putin
stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that
Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin
stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the
long-term. Putin noted that Russian societal unity is critical for Russian victory in Ukraine. Putin
alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and
urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues. Putin stated that Russia "will not
give up" its "own" territory in future peace negotiations — likely referring to illegally annexed
territory in occupied Ukraine. The Kremlin launched the Defenders of the Fatherland State Fund in April
2023 to oversee social support for veterans, elevate veterans within Russian society, and monopolize
control over veterans activities in Russia. Putin has also declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the
Fatherland" — underlining Putin's efforts to prioritize militarizing Russian society and rallying support
behind Russia's war effort in Ukraine in 2025.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed
during a press conference on March 6 that Russia will reject any proposals to station European
peacekeeping forces in Ukraine to enforce a future ceasefire agreement. Lavrov stated that Russia sees
"no room for compromise" on this issue and will consider the presence of a European peacekeeping force in
Ukraine as akin to a NATO deployment in Ukraine. Lavrov stated that Russia will consider the deployment
of any European peacekeepers to Ukraine as the "direct, official, undisguised involvement of NATO
countries" in the war and that Russia will reject such a deployment. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria
Zakharova rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire and the deployment of European troops to
Ukraine on March 6 and claimed that Russia considers any proposal that gives Ukraine a "respite" along
the frontline as unacceptable. Lavrov and Zakharova are explicitly rejecting US Defense Secretary Pete
Hegseth's February 12 suggestion that European and non-European countries should station troops in
Ukraine to enforce any future peace agreement.
Lavrov said that any peace agreement must
account for the alleged "root causes" of the war in Ukraine, including guarantees that NATO will stop
expanding, trying to "swallow" Ukraine, and developing threats against Russia. Lavrov claimed that US
President Donald Trump "understands" the need to eliminate these "root causes" while European countries
are attempting to ignore the "root causes." Lavrov previously identified the "root causes" of the war as
NATO's alleged violation of obligations not to expand eastward and the Ukrainian government's alleged
discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine. Russian
officials often invoke the concept of "root causes" to allude to their demands for NATO to abandon its
open-door policy and to blame the West and Ukraine for Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.
Key
Takeaways:
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected
making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace
proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated
ceasefire on March 6.
• Russian officials will likely take advantage of the suspension of US
military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to spread a longstanding Russian information
operation meant to falsely portray Russian victory as inevitable.
• The Kremlin welcomed a
Trump administration official's recent comments mischaracterizing Russia's illegal and unprovoked
invasion of Ukraine as a "proxy war," and Russian media portrayed the statement as an admission that the
United States is a participant in the war.
• US and Ukrainian delegations will conduct
bilateral meetings in Saudi Arabia next week.
• Ukrainian opposition politicians rejected the
possibility of holding elections in Ukraine before the end of the war.
• European countries
continue to announce new military assistance packages and other measures to support the Ukrainian
military.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and Russian forces
recently advanced in the Kupyansk, Borova, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to assuage Russian fears about conscripts going to war
amid continued reports that Russian military units are forcing conscripts to sign contracts with the
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night
of March 6 to 7 as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense
umbrella by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike. Russian forces
launched the largest combined strike package against Ukraine since November 2024 on the night of March 6
to 7. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 67 missiles including 35 Kh-101/Kh-55
cruise missiles, eight Kalibr cruise missiles, three Iskander-M/Kn-23 ballistic missiles, four S-300 air
defense missiles, eight Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 194 Shahed and decoy drones. The Ukrainian Air
Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 25 Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles, all eight Kalibr cruise
missiles, one Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 100 Shahed and decoy drones and that 86 decoy drones and up to
10 missiles did not reach their targets, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference.
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Ukrainian forces downed Russian targets using F-16 and
Mirage-2000 aircraft and that this was the first instance of Ukrainian forces using Mirage-2000s, which
arrived one month ago, to defend against Russian strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian
forces targeted Ukrainian gas production facilities during the strike. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky and other official Ukrainian sources stated that Russian strikes damaged energy facilities in
Odesa, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Ternopil oblasts. Ternopil Oblast Military Administration reported that
two Russian missiles struck a critical infrastructure facility, causing a fire. Ukraine's largest private
energy company DTEK stated that the strikes damaged an energy facility in Odesa Oblast.
Russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in strike packages in Fall 2024,
likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations. ISW observed reports that
Russian forces began launching between 80 and 100 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones as part of their
larger strike packages in October and November 2024, and reports indicate that Russia has increased the
production of Shahed drone airframes while continuing to rely on Iranian or Chinese imports for other
drone components in December 2024. Russia has likely leveraged the increased production of Shahed drones
to increase the total number of drones launched in each strike package. Russian forces launched an
average 83.4 drones per strike package in January 2025, an average of 139.3 drones per strike package in
February 2024, and an average of 128.8 drones per strike package from March 1 through 7. Russian forces
have only sporadically included missiles in the January, February, and March 2025 strike packages, and
the 67 missiles launched in the March 6 to 7 strike series is a larger amount than in previous missile
strikes this year. Russian forces likely increased the combined number of Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic
missiles and Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles in the March 6 to 7 strike packages to inflict maximum damage
on select targets in Ukraine while using the large number of Shahed drones, decoy drones, and Kalibr
cruise missiles to detect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire groups.
Russia
will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to
intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missiles. US intelligence has
contributed to Ukraine's early warning system against Russian strikes and its suspension will likely
impact Ukraine's ability to rapidly respond to adapting Russian strike packages. Ukraine's Main Military
Intelligence Directorate (GUR) recently reported that Russia is modernizing and increasing its production
of Shahed-136 drones and producing a new Geran-3 drone variant. Russan forces will likely attempt to
overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems by increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones per strike
package in addition to increasing the number of missiles in select strike packages to destroy Ukrainian
energy and defense industrial base (DIB) infrastructure. Russia also likely intends to force Ukraine into
quickly depleting its supply of Patriot air defense interceptors - which Ukraine relies on to defend
against Russian ballistic missiles - during the pause in US military aid and intelligence sharing to
maximize the damage of subsequent strikes. Ukrainian forces will likely have to be more selective in
intercepting strikes as their stock of interceptors decreases with no resupply on the horizon, and
successful Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities will likely have lasting effects on
Ukraine's ability to generate power for DIB and civilian use.
Key Takeaways:
• Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the
night of March 6 to 7 as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air
defense umbrella by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.
• Russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in strike packages in Fall
2024, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations.
• Russia
will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine
to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missiles.
• Russian forces are further intensifying offensive operations in select frontline areas likely in
order to capitalize on any immediate and longer-term battlefield impacts of the cessation of US aid to
Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced into northern Sumy Oblast for the first time
since 2022 – when Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces from significant swathes of Ukrainian territory
following the initial months of Russian advances. Russian forces likely intend to leverage limited
advances into Sumy Oblast to completely expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast among other
objectives.
• Russian forces also recently intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing
Chasiv Yar and attacking Kostyantynivka – the southernmost settlement of Ukraine's fortress belt in
Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian officials continue to explicitly reject making any concessions in
future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals.
• Lithuania's intelligence services assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to conduct a limited
campaign against one or several NATO countries within three to five years, an assessment that is
consistent with ISW's assessments about Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its military and
society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• The United Kingdom (UK)
issued Ukraine's first tranche of revenue generated from frozen Russian assets. Russian forces recently
advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Kremlin
continues to leverage its "Time of Heroes" program to fill government positions with veterans of its war
in Ukraine as part of a long-term effort to militarize Russian society and form a new cadre of loyal
Russian officials.
The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear. The Washington Post
reported on March 7 that a statement by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) noted that
the NGA "temporarily suspended access" to the system that provides Ukraine with commercial
satellite imagery that the United States has purchased. Ukraine can reportedly still access imagery that
it has purchased with its own accounts. A Ukrainian servicemember told the Washington Post that satellite
service near Pokrovsk "simply disappeared" but that Ukrainian forces will "use own plans." CNN
reported on March 7 that two US defense officials stated that the United States is still sharing
intelligence with Ukraine that can help Ukrainian forces "defend" themselves but has "scaled back" the
sharing of intelligence that Ukrainian forces could use for offensive targeting of Russian forces.
Politico reported on March 8 that a European official familiar with the intelligence capabilities of
allies was "still puzzling" over the extent of the US intelligence sharing suspension and stated that
European states may not be able to "bridge the gap." A source familiar with talks among the NATO allies
about how to handle the US suspension reportedly stated that NATO members are not prohibited from sharing
some US intelligence with Ukraine but that such sharing could be very limited as the NATO allies are
trying to avoid "jeopardizing" their relationships with the United States or with each other. Politico
reported that one NATO official stated that there is no pressure from the Trump administration to reduce
or curtail allies' intelligence sharing or weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
Western and
Ukrainian officials indicated that the US suspension of intelligence sharing is generating battlefield
effects. Time reported on March 8 that five senior Western and Ukrainian officials and military officers
stated that the suspension of US intelligence to Ukraine has helped Russian forces advance on the
battlefield. An unspecified officer told Time that the suspension has left Ukrainian forces unable to use
"some of their best weapons systems." A source in the Ukrainian government stated that the suspension has
impacted Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast the most and that Ukrainian forces have lost the ability to
detect Russian aircraft approaching Ukraine — compromising Ukrainian authorities' ability to warn
civilians and military personnel about incoming Russian strikes. CNN reported on March 8 that a Ukrainian
official stated that Ukrainian forces may run out of artillery shells by May or June 2025 — likely
referring only to stockpiles of US-supplied ammunition. A Ukrainian official also told CNN that Ukraine
may exhaust its stockpile of Patriot air defense missiles, upon which Ukraine relies to shoot down
Russian ballistic missiles, "in a matter of weeks." ISW cannot independently verify statements about the
effects on the ground of the US intelligence sharing suspension. ISW continues to assess, however, that
the complete suspension of US intelligence sharing would damage Ukraine's ability to use long-range
strikes to generate battlefield effects and defend against Russian offensive operations and would allow
Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas, affecting
millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
European states continue efforts to supplement intelligence sharing with Ukraine following the US
suspension. French Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Christophe Lemonde stated on March 8
that European states discussed how to try to compensate for the intelligence that the United States "may
stop providing" during that March 6 EU summit. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu stated on March
6 that France would continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine. French outlet Intelligence Online
reported on March 7 that Safran.AI, a subsidiary of French defense corporation Safran, will provide
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) with a data fusion platform to analyze French
satellite imagery and that Safran.AI and the GUR signed the agreement at the end of February 2025 —
before the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Two Ukrainian officers told Time that some
European intelligence agencies are trying to fill the gap following the US suspension of intelligence
sharing to Ukraine but that it will take time for European authorities to deploy these capabilities and
that Europe is unlikely to entirely make up for the US intelligence capability "any time soon."
Russian forces intensified their multi-directional campaign to eliminate the remaining Ukrainian
salient in Kursk Oblast on March 7 and 8. Geolocated footage published on March 8 indicates that Russian
forces recently seized Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed that
elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps ,
Leningrad Military District ) and 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment (formed during the 2022 partial
reserve call up) are advancing near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that
Russian airborne (VDV) units seized Lebedevka (west of Sudzha), and another Russian milblogger claimed
that Russian forces seized Kubatkin (north of Sudzha) and advanced up to eight kilometers into the
Ukrainian salient. A Russian source claimed that fighting is ongoing along the
Lebedevka-Kubatkin-Bondarevka line (northwest and east of Sudzha), but that the situation in this area is
unclear.
Key Takeaways:
• The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing
with Ukraine remains unclear.
• Western and Ukrainian officials indicated that the US
suspension of intelligence sharing is generating battlefield effects.
• European states
continue efforts to supplement intelligence sharing with Ukraine following the US suspension.
• Russian forces intensified their multi-directional campaign to eliminate the remaining Ukrainian
salient in Kursk Oblast on March 7 and 8.
• Russian forces appear to be destroying bridges in
Kursk Oblast and along the international border, likely as part of efforts to prevent Ukrainian forces
from withdrawing from Kursk Oblast into Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD)
Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti
Alaudinov, announced the intensified Russian effort in Kursk Oblast on March 8.
• Russian
forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian rear and near rear areas on the
night of March 7 and 8 and during the day on March 8, and Ukrainian forces notably did not shoot down any
Russian ballistic missiles.
• The Kremlin continues to promote the false narrative that
European Union (EU) member states and Ukraine seek to protract and escalate the war in Ukraine in order
to distract from Russia's own long-term preparations for a war with the West.
• Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 8 that Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff
Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and
Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Colonel Pavlo Palisa will participate in the US-Ukrainian
talks on March 11 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk
and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast following
several days of intensified Russian activity in the area. Geolocated footage published on March 8
indicates that Russian forces seized Novaya Sorochina (northwest of Sudzha), Malaya Loknya (just south of
Novaya Sorochina), and Lebedevka (south of Malaya Loknya), and the fields between the settlements.
Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms
Army , Southern Military District ) seized Malaya Loknya and that elements of the Russian 51st
Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) seized Lebedevka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian
forces seized Pravda and Ivashkovshyi (both north of Sudzha) and positions along an unspecified area of
the railway line between Malaya Loknya and Sudzha.<3> Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the
Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz and 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps
, Leningrad Military District ) participated in the seizure of Kubatkin (north of Sudzha) and
Pravda and that additional elements of the Russian 106th VDV Division are advancing into Kazachya Loknya
(north of Sudzha) from Lebedevka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops hold limited
positions in Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha), and Martynovka (northeast of
Sudzha) but that most Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from positions in the northern part of the salient
towards Kazachya Loknya and Sudzha. Russian milbloggers claimed that preparatory Russian efforts to
destroy the bridges north and south of Sudzha have significantly complicated Ukraine's ability to
withdraw back to Sudzha. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully
counterattacked near Malaya Loknya.
The temporal correlation between the suspension of US
intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is
noteworthy. Russia has been attempting to push Ukrainian forces from the salient in Kursk Oblast through
slow, grinding advances since the incursion began in August 2024. Russia later deployed roughly 12,000
North Korean military personnel in October 2024 to assist in repelling the incursion, but Russian forces
continued to make only gradual gains. The Trump administration suspended US intelligence sharing with
Ukraine on March 5, although there continue to be conflicting reports about the details about the US
suspension. Russian forces intensified offensive operations to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast
on March 6 and 7. A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence started reporting
more rapid Russian advances in Kursk Oblast on March 5. A source in the Ukrainian government stated in a
March 8 Time article that the US intelligence sharing suspension has impacted Ukrainian operations in
Kursk Oblast the most. The Russian military has not previously prioritized the effort to push Ukrainian
forces out of Kursk Oblast over making further advances in eastern Ukraine despite concentrating a
sufficient force grouping to do so in late 2024. A direct link between the suspension of US intelligence
sharing and the start of the collapse of Ukraine's salient in Kursk Oblast is unclear, although Kremlin
officials have recently announced their intention to take advantage of the suspension of US military aid
and intelligence sharing to "inflict maximum damage" to Ukrainian forces "on the ground" during the
limited time frame before the possible future resumption of US intelligence sharing and military aid to
Ukraine.
Reports about the extent of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine continue to
indicate that the suspension will likely affect Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia. Forbes
stated on March 7 that the Trump administration has halted US support for Ukraine's F-16 fighter jet
radar jammers. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 8 that a source familiar with the matter stated
that Ukraine is currently able to fire one artillery shell for every three that Russian forces fire –
even with Ukraine's current supplies of US shells. The suspension of US support to Ukrainian F-16 radar
jammers will likely hamper Ukraine's ability to continue to use the aircraft to defend against Russian
strikes into Ukraine's rear. Ukrainian officials indicated in December 2024 that Ukrainian forces had
been able to gain an artillery advantage of 1.5 to one or three-to-one in some areas of the front, and
Russia's current artillery advantage over Ukraine will likely continue to grow as Ukraine's stockpiles of
US ammunition decrease further following the US suspension of military aid.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast
following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area.
• The temporal correlation
between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the
Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy.
• Reports about the extent of the suspension of US
military aid to Ukraine continue to indicate that the suspension will likely affect Ukraine's ability to
defend itself against Russia.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to provide material and
financial aid to Ukraine.
• Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American
adversaries despite ongoing bilateral talks between the United States and Russia.
• Ukrainian
forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy and Kursk oblasts
and near Siversk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Robotyne.
Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp
contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered. Reuters reported on March 9 that two US
officials stated that the US is planning to use the March 11 US-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia "in part
to determine whether Ukraine is willing to make material concessions to Russia to end the war." One US
official stated that Ukraine cannot say both "I want peace" and "I refuse to compromise on anything" at
the upcoming talks. The other US official stated that the US wants "to see if the Ukrainians are
interested not just in peace, but in a realistic peace." The Financial Times reported on
March 9 that unspecified officials briefed on the upcoming US-Ukrainian negotiations stated that Ukraine
will propose a partial ceasefire with Russia for long-range drone and missile strikes and combat
operations in the Black Sea. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on March 10 that a source familiar with
the Ukrainian delegation's position stated that Ukraine will also propose a prisoner of war (POW)
exchange. The Ukrainian source noted that these proposals are "realistic to implement quickly" and to
"control." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky first suggested a ceasefire in the air and sea on March
5, and Ukraine is offering the kind of ceasefires that are more straightforward and do not require
extended negotiations or a complex monitoring process. A ceasefire along the thousand kilometers of
complex front line characterized by multiple “gray zones” where the lines of opposing forces are blurred
would be extremely difficult to negotiate and monitor. Zelensky has also indicated several times —
including in his February 28 Fox News interview — that he is willing to make concessions on territory,
Ukraine's NATO membership, and his own tenure in office in order to secure a just and sustainable
peace.
Russian officials, in contrast, continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir
Putin's 2021 and 2022 demands. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an interview to "New
Regions of Russia" magazine published on March 10 that any future peace settlement must "eradicate" the
"root causes" of the war. Lavrov defined the "root causes" of the war as the alleged "threats to Russia's
security from the Ukrainian and Western directions in general" that are due to NATO's eastward expansion
and the Ukrainian government's alleged "extermination" of everything that is "connected with Russia and
the Russian World ," including Russian language, culture, Orthodoxy, and media. Lavrov
similarly defined the alleged "root causes" of the war in late December 2024, and the Kremlin's rhetoric
on this topic has not changed in the over two months, even after the start of US-Russian bilateral talks
in February 2024. Russia's repeated rhetoric about the "root causes" of the war and constant reiteration
of its specific unchanged demands contrast sharply with the flexibility Ukraine has shown.
Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration's statements and actions in an
attempt to divide the United States and Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an
interview to the "New Regions of Russia" magazine published on March 10 that US and Russian diplomats
voted the same way for the first time in three years against the Ukrainian- and European-backed United
Nations (UN) resolution on February 24. This resolution commemorated the third anniversary of Russia's
full-scale invasion of Ukraine, recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in
Ukraine, and supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Lavrov claimed that the
"ultraliberal ruling elites of the West," support Ukraine and that European Union (EU) countries and the
United Kingdom (UK) maintain "predatory, colonial habits." Lavrov notably did not mention the United
States, likely in an attempt to drive a perceived ideological wedge between the United States and Europe.
Lavrov's use of the "ruling elites" narrative echoes Russian President Vladimir Putin's February 27 claim
that "some Western elites" are trying to "maintain instability" in the world and will try to "disrupt or
compromise" the US–Russian dialogue that has begun. Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed
on March 10 that the UK government is prioritizing "undermining Trump's peace efforts" and has tasked
non-governmental organizations with "demonizing" Trump. The SVR notably made such claims ahead of the
UK’s hosting of a virtual meeting on March 15 with mainly European and British commonwealth countries to
support a ceasefire agreement. Russian officials are likely attempting to leverage Trump administration
statements and actions to divide the United States and Europe and will likely continue such efforts to
secure maximum concessions on Ukraine from the US, Europe, and Ukraine as well as to fracture the
US-Europe relationship to Russia’s benefit.
Key Takeaways
• Russia continues
to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the
concessions Ukraine has already offered.
• Russian officials continue to capitalize on the
Trump administration's statements and actions in an attempt to divide the United States and Europe.
• Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and likely preparing to attack
Sudzha in the coming days.
• Ukraine continues to expand its domestic production of drones and
air defense systems to support its war effort.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near
Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a list on March 10 of instructions for the
Russian government and the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation aimed at increasing social benefits to
Russian veterans, which will likely put further strain on the Russian budget and economy.
The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent
on Russia's agreement, and the United States reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
US and Ukrainian representatives met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on March 11 for bilateral talks and agreed
to the ceasefire proposal, which the United States will soon propose to Russia. The US-Ukrainian joint
statement emphasized that Russia's reciprocity to this ceasefire proposal is the key to achieving peace
and noted that the ceasefire can be extended if all parties agree. The joint statement noted that the
United States will immediately lift its suspension on intelligence sharing and military assistance to
Ukraine. The United States and Ukraine also agreed to finalize a deal on minerals as soon as possible.
Ukraine reiterated in the joint statement that European partners will be involved in the peace process.
The United States and Ukraine also discussed humanitarian relief to Ukraine, especially during the
ceasefire, including the return of prisoners of war (POWs), detained civilians, and forcibly deported
Ukrainian children to Ukraine. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa confirmed on March
11 that the United States has already resumed the flow of military assistance to Ukraine. A source close
to the Ukrainian government told CNN that the United States also fully restored intelligence sharing to
Ukraine on March 11.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the ceasefire would
encompass a cease in combat operations along the entire frontline, a moratorium on long-range missile and
drone strikes, and the cessation of operations in the Black Sea and would begin as soon as Russia agrees
to the US proposal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded during a press conference on March 11 to
a question about a deadline for Russia to respond, stating that the deadline is "as quickly as possible,"
that the United States will inform Russia about the ceasefire proposal through multiple diplomatic
channels, and that the "ball is now in court." US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated
that he will speak with his Russian counterpart in the coming days and clarified that the resumed US
military assistance to Ukraine includes the provision of material authorized under the Presidential
Drawdown Authority (PDA). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK Prime Minister Keir
Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed support for the 30-day ceasefire proposal and
emphasized that the onus to respond is now on Russia.
Russian ultranationalist voices,
including a Russian State Duma deputy, largely rejected the ceasefire proposal on March 11. Russian
milbloggers, including Kremlin-coopted milbloggers, rejected the ceasefire proposal because the United
States and Ukraine will allegedly "abandon" peace "at the first opportunity" and the war in Ukraine is
existential for Russia. One milblogger claimed that accepting the ceasefire would be "pure betrayal and
sabotage," and another milblogger questioned the purpose of accepting this ceasefire proposal without
achieving Russia's war aims. Russian State Duma Deputy and former 58th Combined Arms Army Commander
Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev stated after the publication of the joint statement that Russia should
not agree to the "unacceptable" 30-day ceasefire proposal because it would allow Ukraine to rearm and
regroup.
The Kremlin has not officially responded to the ceasefire proposal as of this
publication, and Russian state media is attempting to frame earlier official Russian statements about
bilateral US-Russian negotiations as responses to the ceasefire proposal. Following the publication of
the ceasefire proposal, Russian state media largely amplified a statement from Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova from earlier in the day on March 11 saying that Russia "does
not rule out" contacts with the United States in the next few days. Russian State Duma Security Committee
member Mikhail Sheremet stated before the joint statement was released that Russia is interested in a
settlement in Ukraine but will not allow itself to be deceived, and Russian state media only amplified
Sheremet's statement after the ceasefire proposal. Russian state media is likely attempting to portray
the immediate Russian reaction as moderate for domestic audiences until Kremlin officials make public
statements and provide a framing for broader Russian media coverage of the proposal.
Ukraine's
allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military
and back Ukraine with security guarantees — the most effective deterrent against future Russian
aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement. French Defense Minister
Sebastien Lecornu stated on March 11 that France "will refuse any form of demilitarization of Ukraine"
and that the "first guarantee of security remains the Ukrainian army." Reuters reported that 34 military
officials from European NATO states, EU states, Asia, and Oceania, met on March 11 in Paris to assess
their militaries' capabilities to maintain Ukraine's long-term military strength and to guarantee
Ukrainian security in the event of a permanent ceasefire in the war. French President Emmanuel Macron
stated after the meeting that Ukraine's partners must "define credible security guarantees" for Ukraine.
A French military official told the Associated Press on March 10 that the meeting would discuss a French
and British plan for the creation of a multinational force that would aim to reassure Ukraine and deter
another large-scale Russian offensive. The official stated that the envisaged force could include heavy
weaponry and weapons stockpiles that participating militaries could deploy to help Ukraine defend itself
in "hours or days" in the event of a renewed Russian attack. A strong Ukrainian military backed by
Western security guarantees continues to be the strongest deterrent against another Russian invasion in
the future, and Russia has been repeatedly insisting on Ukraine's "demilitarization" and disarmament in
order to deny Ukraine this deterrent and allow Russia to renew attacks against Ukraine at a time of
Moscow's choosing in the future.
Bloomberg reported on March 11 that Western security
officials stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has "no intention" of making compromises on
territory, peacekeepers, or Ukrainian neutrality and that Putin is prepared to continue fighting if he
doesn't achieve his objectives in his war in Ukraine. The officials stated that Putin has deliberately
made "maximalist" demands, knowing that Ukraine and Europe would likely find these demands unacceptable.
Western security officials' reports of the Kremlin's intention to achieve its "maximalist" goals in
Ukraine are consistent with Putin's and other Russian officials' public statements, even as the Kremlin
has attempted to posture itself as open to negotiations and ending the war.
Key Takeaways
• The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine
contingent on Russia's agreement, and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military
aid.
• Ukraine's allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to
strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective
deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace
agreement.
• Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have
likely begun attacking Sudzha.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone
strikes against Russia on the night of March 10 to 11, largely targeting Moscow Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced
near Siversk and Robotyne and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to expand social
benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias
of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (DNR and LNR) since 2014.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day
ceasefire proposal. Peskov responded to a question about Russia's response to the joint temporary
ceasefire proposal, stating that "we don't want to get ahead of ourselves." Peskov stated that Russia
expects US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to inform the
Kremlin about the details of the US-Ukrainian negotiations. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on
March 12 that its sources in the Russian government stated that the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire
proposal surprised the Kremlin, and a source close to the Russian presidential administration stated that
the Kremlin expected the United States to discuss such a proposal with Russia in private before publicly
announcing it, thereby providing the Kremlin time to formulate a prepared response.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to
extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started. Reuters reported
on March 12 that senior Russian sources stated that a deal on the temporary ceasefire would have to "take
into account" Russia's advances on the battlefield and "address concerns." Bloomberg reported
on March 12 that sources familiar with the Kremlin's thinking and the situation stated that Putin will
"stretch the timeline" for agreeing to the temporary ceasefire in order to ensure that his stipulations
"are taken into account." A source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons
supplies to Ukraine as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire, but did not specify whether
such a halt would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine or only those from select
countries. Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely
advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North
Korea, and the People's Republic of China. Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in
future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire
in the first place.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that a source close
to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would "formally" give a "positive
response" to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand "impossible conditions" to which
Ukraine cannot agree. The source stated that Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so that Russia can
engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also "correcting the situation on the front" to
strengthen Russia's negotiating position. The source added that the conditions of the temporary ceasefire
"must suit Russia" and that Russia's agreement to a temporary ceasefire during which Ukraine continues to
receive weapons and financing from its partners and allies is "stupid." These leaks may be intentional
and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal
with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire.
Key Takeaways
• Kremlin Spokesperson
Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has
agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have
started.
• Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary
ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary
ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin
them.
• Russian insider reports about the demands that the Kremlin may make before agreeing to
the temporary ceasefire are in line with Russian officials' public statements in the past months.
• US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Russian Foreign Intelligence
Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin had a phone call on March 11 amid talks about the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March
12.
• Russan President Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast
for the first time since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 — demonstrating Putin's
desire to use Russia's seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of
the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near
Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Toretsk, and
Velyka Novosilka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine
recently agreed upon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US
President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine. Putin claimed on March 13
that he "agrees" with the temporary ceasefire proposal and that the "idea itself is correct" but that the
cessation of hostilities "should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial
causes" of the war. Putin thus rejected one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that
the temporary ceasefire precede formal negotiations to end the war. Putin also claimed that there are
questions that "require painstaking research from both sides." Putin questioned several aspects of the
US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. Putin asked what would happen to the remaining Ukrainian
salient in Kursk Oblast and whether Ukraine would be allowed to continue to mobilize forces, train newly
mobilized soldiers, and receive military aid from its partners and allies. Putin questioned the control
and verification measures of a temporary ceasefire and who would give the orders to stop fighting. Putin
suggested that he may call President Trump to discuss the "issues" involved in the ceasefire proposal.
Putin postured military strength during his rejection of the ceasefire proposal, highlighting recent
Russian successes in pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and claiming that Russian forces are
advancing in "almost all areas of combat."
Putin is offering an alternative ceasefire
agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal. The
US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal calls for a renewable 30-day cessation of combat operations along the
entire frontline, a moratorium on long-range missile and drone strikes, and a cessation of operations in
the Black Sea. The proposal allows for Russia and Ukraine to extend the ceasefire and assumes the
continuation of US intelligence sharing and US and other military assistance to Ukraine. The US-Ukrainian
ceasefire proposal was explicitly aimed at allowing Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness
to make peace and separates the temporary ceasefire from future negotiations to end the war.
Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract preemptive concessions
ahead of formal negotiations to end the war. Putin refused to accept the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal
on its own terms and is instead demanding additional conditions that would contribute directly to the
Kremlin's war aims. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 11 that the US will "know what the
impediment is to peace" in Ukraine if Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal. ISW continues to assess that
Putin is disinterested in good faith peace negotiations to end the war. Putin remains committed to
accomplishing his long-term goals of installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Ukraine, undermining
Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression and preventing Ukraine's accession
to NATO. Putin's rejection of the ceasefire proposal underscores Putin's commitment to securing his
objectives in Ukraine, particularly Ukraine's demilitarization, and disinterest in any pause in fighting
that does not result in Ukrainian capitulation or at least set conditions for a successful renewal of
Russian offensive operations in the future.
Key Takeaways
• Russian President
Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine recently agreed upon in
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump's
stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine.
• Putin is offering an alternative
ceasefire agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire
proposal.
• Putin's envisioned ceasefire agreement would grant Russia greatly disproportionate
advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to
Russia.
• Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract
preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war.
• Russian forces continue
to clear Ukrainian forces from Sudzha and its environs as Russian troops advance closer to the border in
Kursk Oblast slowed on March 13 compared to recent days.
• Russian milbloggers theorized on
March 13 that Russian forces may launch an organized offensive operation into northern Sumy Oblast in the
coming weeks and months and may also attack into Chernihiv Oblast — in line with Russian President
Vladimir Putin's March 12 statements.
• Kremlin officials continue to use narratives similar
to those that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasions of Ukraine to set informational conditions to
justify future aggression against NATO member states.
• Russian forces continue to execute
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) in violation of international law.
• Russia will likely
expand its permanent military basing in Belarus to enhance Russia’s force posture against NATO’s eastern
flank.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently
advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Siversk, and Toretsk.
• Russia continues its
crypto-mobilization efforts against the backdrop of US efforts to start the negotiation process to end
the war.
>• Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is >attempting to extract
preemptive concessions ahead of formal >negotiations to end the war. > >
Die Amis werden (leider) bzgl. Putin Paktfähigkeit auch noch die Lernkurve machen...
ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant
number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine. Russian President
Vladimir Putin claimed during a press conference on March 13 that Russian forces have "isolated"
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and that it is "impossible" for small groups of Ukrainian forces to
withdraw from positions in Kursk Oblast. Putin claimed that Ukrainian forces will not be able to leave
Kursk at all "if" Russian forces can conduct a "physical blockade" in the coming days. Putin stated
during a Russian Security Council meeting on March 14 that Russian forces have "blocked" unspecified
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 14 that Russian
authorities are fabricating claims about the alleged "encirclement" of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast
in order to influence the political and informational scene. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that
Ukrainian forces have regrouped and withdrawn to more advantageous defensive positions in Kursk Oblast
and that Ukrainian forces are not under threat of encirclement.
Russian milbloggers have also
not coalesced around claims that Russian forces have encircled or "blocked" a significant number of
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast in recent days, but milbloggers may alter their reporting to mirror
Putin's claims in the coming days. Some Russian milbloggers claimed on March 12 and 13 that Russian
forces encircled an unspecified number of Ukrainian forces in an unspecified area of Kursk Oblast, but
many Russian milbloggers published maps on March 13 and 14 acknowledging that Ukrainian forces have
viable egress routes into Sumy Oblast from their remaining positions in Kursk Oblast. At least one
Russian milblogger explicitly questioned claims that Russian forces encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk
Oblast on March 12, and another complained on March 12 that Russian forces are unable to encircle
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast because Russian forces cannot conduct rapid, mechanized breakthroughs
into rear Ukrainian areas.
Putin claimed in October 2024 that Russian forces "encircled" 2,000
Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, but ISW never observed any Russian milblogger claims or geolocated
footage to substantiate Putin's October 2024 claim. Putin has repeatedly failed to acknowledge that the
Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast extends from the Ukrainian-Russian international border and that
Ukrainian forces can transit the sections of the border under Ukrainian control.
Putin seized
on a statement by US President Donald Trump about the supposed encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kursk
Oblast to distract from his recent rejection of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal. President Trump
stated in a post on Truth Social on March 14 that Russian forces have "completely surrounded" "thousands"
of Ukrainian forces, presumably in Kursk Oblast, and called on Putin to "spare" their lives. Putin
responded directly to Trump's request during the March 14 security council meeting and claimed that
Russian forces will guarantee the "life and decent treatment" of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast if
Ukrainian forces surrender. Putin reiterated unsubstantiated claims that Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast
have committed crimes against Russian civilians in the area and said that Russia considers the Ukrainian
incursion an act of "terrorism." Putin claimed that Ukrainian authorities must order Ukrainian forces to
surrender in order for Russia to implement Trump's request. Putin is attempting to present himself as a
reasonable and merciful leader whom President Trump can engage with and to generate a new narrative to
distract from Putin's decision to reject the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal on March 13.
Key
Takeaways
• ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have
encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in
Ukraine.
• Putin seized on a statement by US President Donald Trump about the supposed
encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast to distract from his recent rejection of the
US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal.
• Kremlin statements following Putin's meeting with US
Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on March 13 underscore Putin's rejection of the
US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal and continued unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations to end
the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces marginally advanced towards the international border in
Kursk Oblast on March 14, but Ukrainian forces still maintain limited positions in Kursk Oblast.
• Consistent Ukrainian strikes against Russian air defense assets are reportedly allowing Ukrainian
long-range drones to increasingly penetrate the Russian air defense umbrella in deep rear areas,
including in Moscow Oblast.
• The Ukrainian military reorganized the Ukrainian 3rd Separate
Assault Brigade into the 3rd Army Corps, further showcasing Ukraine's force efforts to transition to a
corps structure.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to provide military assistance and
technical support and demonstrate interest in strengthening bilateral cooperation.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Toretsk and
near Siversk and Pokrovsk.
Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials continue to deny Russian President Vladimir Putin's
unsubstantiated claim that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian troops in
Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers published maps on March 14 and 15 showing Russian and Ukrainian
positions in Kursk Oblast that do not indicate Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces, and two
Russian milbloggers explicitly denied Putin's claim that Russian forces encircled a significant number of
Ukrainian forces in the area on March 13 and 14. One milblogger characterized Putin's claims as a
narrative intended to influence US President Donald Trump ahead of peace negotiations. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Russian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to encircle
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, that no encirclement currently exists, and stated that Putin is
attempting to delay discussion of the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal by spreading these
claims.Independent Ukrainian sources also denied Putin's claims about Russian encirclements of Ukrainian
forces and noted that Ukrainian forces maintain the ability to maneuver from their remaining positions in
Kursk Oblast despite a difficult tactical situation. ISW has still not observed any Russian milblogger
claims or geolocated footage suggesting that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk
Oblast. Ukrainian forces appear to maintain egress routes across the international border from their
positions in Kursk Oblast as of this publication.
Russian forces continued offensive
operations in Kursk Oblast but have not completely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the area as of this
publication. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in
western Basivka (northeast of Sumy City in Sumy Oblast). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other
Russian sources claimed on March 15 that Russian forces seized Zaoleshenka (immediately west of Sudzha)
and Rubanshchina (west of Sudzha), but ISW has not observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have
seized the entirety of these settlements. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized
Gogolevka (west of Sudzha) and are clearing Guyevo (south of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed that
Ukrainian forces maintain positions near Oleshnya and Gornal (both southwest of Sudzha). Russian forces
continued attacking near Rubanshchina, Gogolevka, and Guyevo. Elements of the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV)
Brigade are reportedly operating near Gogolevka, and elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black
Sea Fleet) and 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) are reportedly operating near Guyevo.
Key Takeaways
• Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials continue to deny Russian
President Vladimir Putin's unsubstantiated claim that Russian forces have encircled a significant number
of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk
Oblast but have not completely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the area as of this publication.
• Ukrainian officials expressed concern about Russian ground operations in northern Sumy Oblast but
doubt Russia's ability to conduct an effective concerted offensive operation against Sumy City.
• The Kremlin is likely preparing to intensify a narrative that accuses Ukrainian forces of war crimes
in Kursk Oblast in an attempt to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and
spoil or delay straightforward discussions about the 30-day ceasefire that US President Donald Trump
proposed to Putin.
• Russian forces conducted drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the
night of March 14 to 15, including conducting their third double-tap strike against Ukraine in the past
week.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed the official Ukrainian delegation to
"engage with Ukraine's international partners" in the negotiation process to end the war on March 15.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy
Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.
Mit Blick auf die von ihm geforderte „Kriegswirtschaft“ sagte Weber, das
bedeute zum Beispiel beschleunigte Genehmigungsverfahren bei Rüstungsgütern und mehr Zusammenarbeit
zwischen den europäischen Rüstungsherstellern. Aber auch, dass Unternehmen von der Produktion ziviler auf
militärische Produkte umgestellt werden.
„Klare Ansagen bei Beschaffung“ Zudem brauche
Europa ein gemeinsames europäisches Führungskommando, sagte Weber. Ein europäischer Generalstabschef
solle dann „die aufgerüsteten nationalen Armeen befehligen und klare Ansagen bei der Beschaffung machen
können“, verlangte der EVP-Fraktionschef.
>Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials continue to deny >Russian President Vladimir
Putin's unsubstantiated claim that >Russian forces have encircled a significant number of >Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Eine Seite sagt so, die andere so, wenn man
nicht direkt selbst vor Ort ist bleibt eine Einschätzung schwierig.
US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security
guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions. Waltz also stated that the United States
is considering "the reality of the situation on the ground" in diplomatic talks when discussing an end to
the war in Ukraine. It is not clear exactly what Waltz meant by "the reality of the situation on the
ground." Russian officials have frequently used the narrative that any negotiations must consider the
"realities on the ground" to refer to the current frontline in Ukraine and their claims of the
inevitability of further Russian battlefield gains. Waltz's acknowledgement that Ukraine will receive
unspecified security guarantees is a key aspect of achieving US President Donald Trump's stated goal of
securing a lasting peace in Ukraine, but stopping hostilities on indefensible lines would limit the
effectiveness of security guarantees.
The current frontlines do not provide the strategic
depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression. Russian forces are
just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, roughly 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia City, and 30
kilometers from Kharkiv City. Russian troops on the Dnipro River could use a ceasefire to prepare for the
extremely difficult task of conducting an opposed river crossing undisturbed, significantly increasing
the likelihood of success in such an endeavor. Stopping a well-prepared, major mechanized offensive cold
is extremely rare in war, which means that a renewed Russian assault would likely threaten both Kharkiv
and Zaporizhzhia cities, as well as key cities in the Donetsk "fortress belt," almost immediately. Russia
is constructing a large highway and railway aimed at connecting major cities in occupied Ukraine and
Russia, which will reinforce Russia's hold on occupied Ukraine and Russia's ability to transport and
supply Russian forces operating in Ukraine in the event of a future Russian offensive in southern
Ukraine.
The US and Europe would likely need to provide military aid to Ukraine more rapidly,
in much larger volumes, and at higher cost the closer the ultimate ceasefire lines are to the current
frontline. Ukraine would likely need an even larger military with greater capabilities to play its
critical role in deterring and, if necessary, defeating future aggression along current frontline (both
within Ukraine and along Ukraine’s international border with Russia) that is over 2,100 kilometers long.
Enforcing a ceasefire along the current frontline would also require the commitment of large numbers of
Western forces. Helping Ukraine regain strategically critical territory, as Trump has suggested he
intends to do, could significantly reduce the cost and difficulty of securing a future peace. A ceasefire
along more defensible positions would also place Russian forces in a more disadvantaged position for
renewed offensive operations, making future Russian aggression less likely.
Russian officials
maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of
unoccupied Ukraine, however. Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have
consistently demanded that Ukraine surrender the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson
oblasts, including areas that Russian forces do not already occupy, and have reiterated these claims in
recent weeks. Russian state media has also recently amplified similar sentiments from Kremlin-affiliated
mouthpieces. Putin recently claimed that "Novorossiya" is an integral part of Russia, and Kremlin
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defined "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine including
Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Russia currently occupies a small portion of
Kharkiv Oblast and the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, and Russian forces are advancing towards the
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. Continued Kremlin statements demanding that Ukraine cede
unoccupied Ukrainian territory indicate that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial
goals despite ongoing negotiations.
Russian officials have given no public indications that
they are willing to make concessions on their territorial or security demands of Ukraine. Accepting
Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine would be a significant concession for Putin. Putin has
repeatedly called for Ukraine to permanently abandon its goals of joining NATO or any security bloc and
to reject future offers of foreign military assistance, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
recently claimed that Russia will reject the future deployment of any European peacekeepers to Ukraine
and consider any such deployment as the "direct, official, undisguised involvement of NATO countries" in
the war. Russian officials also appear to be generating increased support for their demands in Russian
society despite the costs of Russia's protracted war effort, and Putin likely remains committed to
securing a return for Russia's investment in the war he regards as sufficient. Putin and Kremlin
officials have been regularly broadcasting their demands for Ukrainian territorial and security
concessions beyond the current frontlines to the Russian people, underscoring how unlikely Putin is to
abandon his ambitions in Ukraine even after a ceasefire.
Key Takeaways
• US
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security
guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.
• The current frontlines do
not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian
aggression.
• Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all
occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine, however.
• Russian officials
have given no public indications that they are willing to make concessions on their territorial or
security demands of Ukraine.
• Russia continues to seize on diplomatic engagements with the
United States to normalize its war demands.
• The United Kingdom (UK) convened a virtual
Coalition of the Willing summit on March 15 to reiterate support for Ukraine and discuss plans for
peace.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Russian forces advanced in Sumy
Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts
to posture as solving issues with the Russian military.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire
proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump
in negotiations to end the war. Trump stated on March 17 that he plans to speak with Putin on March 18
and "wants] to see if he and Putin can bring the war to an end." Trump added that he and Putin will "be
talking about land," "power plants," and "dividing up certain assets." The United States and Ukraine
agreed on March 11 to a 30-day ceasefire proposal that is contingent on Russia's "acceptance and
concurrent implementation." The proposal stated that Ukraine and the United States intend to name their
negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace — noting the distinction
between the temporary ceasefire and future negotiations on a peace settlement. Putin rejected the
temporary ceasefire proposal on March 13 and claimed that the cessation of hostilities "should be such
that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes" of the war. Putin thus rejected
one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that the temporary ceasefire precedes formal
negotiations to end the war. The US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal noted that the United States
and Ukraine discussed the return of prisoners of war (POWs), detained civilians, and forcibly deported
Ukrainian children — all of which will require future talks with Russia. The US-Ukrainian temporary
ceasefire proposal did not mention talks with Russia about Ukrainian territory, energy infrastructure, or
assets. Putin also suggested on March 13 that he may call Trump to discuss "issues" involved in the
ceasefire proposal, such as Ukraine's continued ability to mobilize forces and receive military aid from
partners and allies — issues notably not included in the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. Putin
is attempting to change the sequence of talks in order to push Trump into making preemptive concessions
on issues that are not part of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire but are part of Russia's war aims.
The acceptance of these Russian demands in the context of negotiations for an immediate ceasefire would
cede valuable US and Ukrainian leverage during future negotiations to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Russian officials continue to demonstrate that Russia's aim of destroying Ukrainian
sovereignty remains unchanged since before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko claimed in an interview with Kremlin-affiliated outlet
Izvestiya on March 17 that Russia continues to demand that Ukraine be a neutral state and that NATO
states refuse to accept Ukraine as a member. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated to RBK
Ukraine on March 17 that no country should have a "veto" over Ukraine's choice to participate in
alliances, including the EU or NATO. Syhiba noted that Ukraine's NATO aspirations are enshrined in the
Ukrainian Constitution and reflect a "strategic choice of the Ukrainian people." A Russian "veto" of
Ukraine's choices about these matters would amount to a denial of Ukraine's ability to make choices about
its alliances and security arrangements as a sovereign and independent state. Grushko acknowledged during
his interview that Russia's demands for Ukrainian neutrality and NATO's refusal to allow Ukraine into the
alliance are the same demands that Russia made in 2021 before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine —
demonstrating how Russia's demands to destroy Ukraine as an independent, sovereign state have remained
unchanged.
The Kremlin continues to reject the prospect of European peacekeepers in Ukraine,
in opposition to US and Ukrainian positions on the matter and impeding the establishment of a stable,
lasting peace to end the war. Grushko stated on March 17 that Russia will not accept peacekeepers from
the EU, NATO, or individual Western states in post-war Ukraine as Russia considers all of these possible
peacekeeping contingents to be "NATO contingents." Grushko claimed that any talks about future
international peacekeeping missions in Ukraine should only occur after the conclusion of the final peace
agreement to end the war and only if parties to the peace agreement agree that the peace agreement
requires international support. The Kremlin appears to be trying to dictate the timing and sequence of
talks, demanding that final peace talks precede any discussions about peacekeeping missions in post-war
Ukraine. Russia continues to make clear its rejection of any European involvement in post-war Ukraine —
in contradiction to US and Ukrainian positions on the matter. Trump stated on February 26 that Europe
should be responsible for security guarantees for Ukraine, and the joint US-Ukrainian March 11 statement
outlining the temporary ceasefire proposal stated that Ukraine reiterated its positions that European
partners should be involved in the peace process. Sybiha stressed the importance of European support to
assist in monitoring and enforcing the terms of a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine and noted that Ukraine
is already discussing specific details with those European countries willing to deploy peacekeeping
forces to Ukraine. Significant European involvement in post-war Ukraine is critical for any peace
settlement that aims to establish an enduring peace in Ukraine.
A strong Ukrainian military
backed by security guarantees remains the most important component of a sustainable peace in Ukraine and
deterrence of future Russian aggression. Sybiha emphasized that there can be no restriction on Ukraine's
defensive capabilities or military strength in any future peace agreement and that Ukraine must keep
working towards a self-sufficient defense industrial sector to deter further Russian aggression. Sybiha,
responding to a question about Ukraine's fundamental stipulations in "any" future negotiations, stated
that Ukraine will not compromise its territorial integrity and sovereignty and "will never recognize
occupied territories." Discussions on the permanent status of occupied Ukrainian territory should
properly only be a part of negotiations on a permanent settlement of the war.
Key Takeaways
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the
ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President
Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war.
• Russian officials continue to demonstrate that
Russia's aim of destroying Ukrainian sovereignty remains unchanged since before Russia launched its
full-scale invasion in 2022.
• The Kremlin continues to reject the prospect of European
peacekeepers in Ukraine, in opposition to US and Ukrainian positions on the matter and impeding the
establishment of a stable, lasting peace to end the war.
• A strong Ukrainian military backed
by security guarantees remains the most important component of a sustainable peace in Ukraine and
deterrence of future Russian aggression.
• The United States announced its withdrawal from war
crimes monitoring agencies related to the war in Ukraine – essentially a unilateral concession to Russia
with no Russian concessions in return.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Chief
of General Staff Lieutenant General Anatoliy Barhylevych with Major General Andriy Hnatov on March 16.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near
Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian occupation officials
continue to develop analogues to the federal "Time of Heroes" programming in occupied Ukraine as part of
long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society in occupied
Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along
the frontline and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian
capitulation. Putin and US President Donald Trump held a phone call on March 18. The Kremlin's official
readout of the call stated that Putin emphasized the need to address the "root causes" of the war.
Russian officials have repeatedly defined these root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's
alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine. Russian officials’ calls for
the elimination of these "root causes" amount to Russian demands for Ukraine's permanent neutrality and
the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
Putin demanded on March 18 that Ukraine
stop mobilizing (i.e. recruiting and training) forces during a potential temporary ceasefire. Putin also
called for a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine but did not discuss
Russia's military support from North Korea, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Iran. Putin claimed
that Russia and the United States should continue their efforts toward a peace settlement in "bilateral
mode," excluding Ukraine or Europe from future negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Putin's demands on
the March 18 call parallel the demands he made on March 13.
ISW continues to assess that Putin
is attempting to hold the temporary ceasefire proposal hostage in order to extract preemptive concessions
ahead of formal negotiations to end the war. ISW also continues to assess that Putin's demands for the
removal of the legitimate government of Ukraine, the weakening of the Ukrainian military such that it
cannot defend against future Russian aggression, and the denial of Ukraine's sovereignty and independence
remain unchanged. The persistence of Putin's demands for Ukraine's capitulation demonstrates that Putin
is not interested in good-faith negotiations to pursue Trump's stated goal of achieving a lasting peace
in Ukraine.
Trump and Putin agreed on a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against
energy infrastructure, but the exact contours of the moratorium remain unclear at this time. The Kremlin
stated that Putin accepted Trump's proposal for a 30-day moratorium on strikes against "energy
infrastructure" and that Putin "immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order," whereas
the White House stated that Putin and Trump agreed to "an energy and infrastructure ceasefire." It is
unclear which targets are explicitly prohibited under the 30-day moratorium given the difference in
language between the two readouts of the call.
The Kremlin also stated that Putin "informed"
Trump that Russia and Ukraine will each exchange 175 prisoners of war (POWs) on March 19 and that Russia
will also transfer 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers, whom Putin claimed are currently undergoing
medical treatment in Russian hospitals, as a "gesture of goodwill." The March 11 US-Ukrainian temporary
ceasefire proposal stated that Ukrainian and American delegations discussed POW exchanges as part of the
peace process, particularly during a potential temporary ceasefire on the frontline. The White House
stated on March 18 that Russia and the United States will "immediately" begin negotiations in an
unspecified country in the Middle East about a temporary maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a "full
ceasefire," and a permanent peace settlement. The Kremlin stated that the United States and Russia are
creating "expert groups" to continue efforts to achieve a peace settlement "in bilateral mode."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky endorsed the Trump-Putin energy strikes moratorium agreement on
March 18 and said that Ukraine expects to receive additional information from Trump about the proposal.
Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not accept a situation in which Russia strikes Ukrainian energy
infrastructure and Ukraine is unable to respond.
Key Takeaways
• Russian President
Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the frontline and
reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.
• Trump and Putin agreed on a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure,
but the exact contours of the moratorium remain unclear at this time.
• Putin continues to
hold the temporary ceasefire hostage, likely to extract further concessions from US President Donald
Trump and delay or spoil negotiations for an enduring peace in Ukraine.
• Russian forces
recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the area,
likely as part of efforts to leverage Russia's deliberate stalling of the temporary ceasefire proposal to
make battlefield gains.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove, and Russian
forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova.
• The Russian military is reportedly
increasing the number of its information and psychological operations units.
Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes
ceasefire. Ceasefires take time to negotiate, execute, and monitor and require both sides to agree to
cease attacks on specified targets at a specific time and date. Ceasefires also require both sides to
agree to mechanisms to monitor the ceasefire and to address allegations of violations. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 19 that if Russia and Ukraine come to a temporary strikes
ceasefire agreement, then Ukraine will prepare a list of "civilian objects, energy objects,
infrastructure objects" to give to Ukraine's partners — indicating that Russia and Ukraine have not
finalized the details of which targets would be off limits or agreed on an implementation date.
Official American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements indicate that the parties to the ceasefire have
not yet finalized the details of the agreement. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on March 19
that the temporary ceasefire only applies to "energy infrastructure facilities," and Kremlin newswire
TASS reported that Peskov declined to comment on the White House statement — likely referring to the
March 18 White House statement following the call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President
Vladimir Putin — that the ceasefire applied to "energy and infrastructure." Trump told the Washington
Examiner on March 18 after his call with Putin that Russia agreed to "an immediate ceasefire on energy
and infrastructure." US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff similarly stated on March 18 after
the call that the temporary ceasefire covers "energy and infrastructure in general." The Trump
administration's statement following Trump's March 19 call with Zelensky stated that Trump and Zelensky
"agreed on a partial ceasefire against energy." Zelensky stated on March 19 that Ukraine is "ready to
implement" a ceasefire on strikes against "energy and civilian infrastructure."
Russian
President Vladimir Putin is adding confusion about the timing and details of the ceasefire in an attempt
to falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire before both countries have officially implemented
the agreement. The Kremlin is attempting to posture Russia as already adhering to the temporary ceasefire
while claiming that Ukraine is violating the ceasefire — even though both parties have not agreed on the
details of the agreement or officially implemented the ceasefire. The Kremlin readout of the March 18
phone call between Putin and Trump stated that Putin "immediately gave the Russian military" an order
that "corresponded" with his "positive response" to Trump's temporary ceasefire proposal. The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that seven Russian drones were en route to striking Ukrainian energy
facilities connected to defense industrial enterprises in Mykolaiv Oblast when Putin issued the order to
the Russian military. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces received orders to "neutralize" the
drones and that Russian forces used Pantsir air defense systems to down six drones and that a Russian
Aerospace Forces (VKS) fighter jet destroyed the other. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces
launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 18 to 19, and
Zelensky noted on March 19 that Russian drones had struck a hospital in Sumy Oblast and unspecified areas
in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian drones struck an oil transshipment facility in
Krasnodar Krai following the Trump-Putin call and attempted to frame the Ukrainian strike as a violation
of the ceasefire agreement. Russian claims that Russia adhered to the ceasefire by abstaining from
conducting strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and that Ukraine violated the ceasefire are
inaccurate as Russia and Ukraine have not yet officially implemented the agreement. Such Russian claims
are attempts to take advantage of the lack of clarity about the details of the ceasefire that the Kremlin
is injecting. Putin's attempt to confuse and manipulate the temporary strikes ceasefire and blame Ukraine
for violations even before the agreement has come into effect is an indicator of how Putin will likely
exploit any future agreements.
Key Takeaways
• Russia and Ukraine have not formally
announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire.
• Official
American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements indicate that the parties to the ceasefire have not yet
finalized the details of the agreement.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is adding confusion
about the timing and details of the ceasefire in an attempt to falsely blame Ukraine for violating the
ceasefire before both countries have officially implemented the agreement.
• The Kremlin
continues to contradict Trump's report of his call with Putin on March 18.
• The Kremlin
continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to
set conditions to make further territorial demands.
• The United States, Ukraine, and Europe
continue to agree that Ukraine and Europe must be involved in peace negotiations to end the war, despite
Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to exclude Ukraine and Europe from such negotiations.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on March 19.
• The Russian
Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz
Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, described recent Russian deception tactics that may amount to
acts of perfidy — a war crime under the Geneva Convention.
• Ukrainian forces recently
advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar,
Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian
government should give military awards and social benefits to military instructors and Russian defense
industrial base (DIB) employees.
>• The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main >Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head
and Akhmat Spetsnaz >Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, described recent >Russian
deception tactics that may amount to acts of perfidy — >a war crime under the Geneva
Convention.
Acts of perfidy?
Man lernt. In Praxis wohl das Tragen
ukrainischer Uniformen.
Article 37 - Prohibition of perfidy
(d) the feigning
of protected status by the use of signs, emblems or uniforms of the United Nations or of neutral or other
States not Parties to the conflict. 2. Ruses of war are not prohibited.
Die Aussagen von John Bolten würde ich nicht allzu ernst nehmen. Der ist noch immer sauer, weil ihn
Trump, während der 1. Amtszeit, als Berater rausgeschmissen hat. Bolton, einer der für mehr Krieg, als
weniger Krieg eintritt..
"The U.S. leader called Bolton “a disgruntled boring fool who only
wanted to go to war. Never had a clue, was ostracized & happily dumped. What a dope!”
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