This week, the UK took the second step in the lockdown easing journey laid out in the government’s
roadmap announced on February 22 (Table 1). The backdrop to this further easing of mobility restrictions
looks very good: the reproduction number is comfortably below one (at around 0.766); daily new infections
are now 3,568 (down from the second-wave peak of 61,235 on January 4); hospital occupancy is now 2,862
(down from the second-wave peak of 39,249 on January 18); and daily deaths are now 13 (down from the
second-wave peak of 1,826 on January 20). Yet, all may not be well behind this benign picture. Last
week, the three academic modelling groups which advise the UK government – Imperial College, the
University of Warwick and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) – published their
latest assessments of the lockdown easing roadmap. These assessments all made two key observations:
first, that there is a significant risk of a third wave of COVID-19 infections in the UK over the summer
if the government follows the third and fourth steps of the easing path; and second, that even after all
restrictions on mobility are eased – currently scheduled for June 21 – other non-pharmaceutical
interventions such as social distancing where possible, mask wearing, increased hygiene and test, trace
and quarantine regimes will need to remain in place. Given the development of new variants, the absence
of a vaccine for those under 18 years, and the less than 100% vaccine take-up and efficacy, it is
unlikely that the epidemic can be fully controlled by vaccination alone.
Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nutzung ausschließlich für den privaten Eigenbedarf.
Eine Weiterverwendung und Reproduktion über den persönlichen Gebrauch hinaus ist nicht gestattet.
Kursdaten: Powered by Interactive Data Managed Solutions (IDMS). IDMS und die Datenlieferanten übernehmen keine Gewähr für die Richtigkeit, Vollständigkeit und Aktualität der Inhalte des Informationssystems. Die Kursdaten werden je nach Vereinbarung mit den Börsen/Handelsplätzen in Realtime, 15 Min. verzögert oder End-of-Day dargestellt. Weitere Hinweise entnehmen Sie bitte unseren AGB (§4 Abs.7).