Fixed income ist in den USA nach vielen Jahren wieder eine Alternative.

Narratives change quickly. Just a month or two ago, it was conventional wisdom that a global recession was already under way. Growth in the US and China contracted in the second quarter of this year and the situation in Europe hardly seemed better. US consumer confidence was near March 2009 lows. The playbook looked clear: after aggressive policy tightening, central banks would stop soon. We were near a pivot in policy.

But just a few months later, it looks as if something else has been going on. Year to date, the US economy has added 3.5 million jobs and US manufacturing activity has expanded each and every month. Despite higher rates, higher energy prices, conflict in Europe, and a host of other challenges, the world's largest economy continues to trundle along.

That possibility came into sharp focus this week with a US core CPI print well above expectations. The CPI number has implications for monetary policy but also raises a much broader question about where we are in the cycle. The market is still facing late-cycle conditions: inflation that is too high, policy that is tightening, a yield curve thats inverted, and a slowdown in growth that is ahead not behind.

Indeed, exactly what the Fed will need to do to slow down these inflationary pressures seems increasingly uncertain.

Americans love to point out the challenges the ECB faces in crafting a single monetary policy for the diverse economy in Europe. But maybe the Fed is facing a similar dilemma.

About half of all the income in the US is earned by households making more than $100,000 per year. Most of these households own their own homes, and either have no mortgage or have refinanced into a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an extremely low rate. This means that the largest expense for these households is not rising even as the Fed is hiking, but their wages are (median wage growth in the US is ~6.5%, per the Atlanta Fed). For many of these households, which represent a large share of national income, financial conditions arent tightening, theyre easing. This may help to explain why core inflation is so sticky on the way down.

Of course, things look different at the low end of the income distribution, where households are more likely to face high rent inflation and be more impacted by higher food and energy costs. This seems to present a real dilemma, one that in the markets eyes increases the likelihood that the Fed will have to do more. It is too early to pivot.

For markets, this has a number of implications.
Psychologically, it means adjusting to a world where the Fed no longer seems as friendly and market supportive. Over much of the last 12 years, with inflation undershooting targets, central banks were often happy to push for easy policy when conditions looked tough. But with inflation now high in the US, the UK and the eurozone, that dynamic has changed. Prior to last week, the ECB had never executed a 75bp rate hike. Market pricing now suggests a high likelihood that it will do so in back-to-back months.

Meanwhile, for much of the last 12 years, it was common to hear some variation of 'TINA' (There Is No Alternative), the idea that one needed to be long stocks and bonds because cash offered so little. Low yields were not the primary reason why stocks rallied over that time; global equities and global equity earnings simply rose by the same amount (~100%). But was TINA a helpful mental crutch for markets, especially in times of stress? Absolutely.

These tighter policy rates are now scrambling that mindset. Six-month US T-bills yield about ~3.75% and cash and short-term fixed income increasingly offer lower volatility and high yield within a cross-asset portfolio. US 1- to 5-year credit yields ~4.9% against an S&P 500 earnings yield of ~5.9%. But over the last 30 days, the S&P 500 has been 5.7 times more volatile.

In short, investors now have a number of higher-yielding, lower-volatility alternatives if they want to step back from the market.

  

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Diverse Gurus ber das aktuelle Brsengeschehen 8 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(316), 07.1.21 20:01
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Stefan Rie: Mega-Hausse voraus
07.1.21 19:12
1
Five Reasons Why We Are Inflation Bulls
11.1.21 09:21
2
Erste Group - Investoren blicken bereits in die Zukunft
13.1.21 11:03
3
Somebody should be shot
01.2.21 14:51
4
RE: Somebody should be shot
01.2.21 18:24
5
Global equity markets rebounded strongly from the prior...
07.2.21 21:52
6
Fear & Greed Index
13.2.21 12:12
7
Speculative Traders Add Billions to Meme Stocks at Ne...
14.2.21 11:33
8
      Cathie Wood Risks Having Too Much Money and Not Enough ...
14.2.21 11:35
9
      Brsenguru Jeremy Grantham warnt
19.2.21 14:14
10
      Ken Fisher: So sieht sein Depot aus
19.2.21 14:19
11
Der neue IVA-Chef
20.2.21 15:46
12
RE: Der neue IVA-Chef
20.2.21 15:54
13
While there is a lot of talk about bubbles - VIX!
24.2.21 13:54
14
Jens Ehrhardt: So investiere ich jetzt!
24.2.21 14:40
15
Global equity markets were weaker into the end of the w...
28.2.21 20:53
16
equities will be able to tolerate bonds repricing
06.3.21 18:17
17
We see higher rates largely as a function of earlier an...
08.3.21 11:26
18
Inverted yield curve hat wieder funktioniert
21.3.21 12:02
19
Was Cathie Wood eigentlich in ihrem Fonds hat
22.3.21 16:38
20
RE: Was Cathie Wood eigentlich in ihrem Fonds hat
22.3.21 20:55
21
      DAX 20.000?
01.4.21 08:29
22
JPMorgans Dimon Says This Boom Could Easily Run Into ...
07.4.21 14:25
23
RE: JPMorgans Dimon Says This Boom Could Easily Run I...
07.4.21 14:30
24
Norwegischer Staatsfondsinteressant
11.4.21 10:46
25
RE: Norwegischer Staatsfonds
12.4.21 20:03
26
      RE: Norwegischer Staatsfonds
12.4.21 20:25
27
Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn
17.5.21 08:01
28
RE: Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn
17.5.21 08:12
29
      RE: Goldman und Pimco sehen Inflationswahn
17.5.21 22:22
30
EZB heute
10.6.21 15:45
31
Biden hat nur begrenzt Zeit
11.6.21 14:17
32
Fed prognostiziert 2 Zinserhhungen in den nchsten 2 J...
16.6.21 21:41
33
FOMC meeting was a hawkish surprise, but bullish view o...
22.6.21 15:33
34
We maintain our pro-risk view
14.7.21 13:51
35
BlackRock CEO Fink does not see inflation as transitory
14.7.21 16:12
36
We remain constructive on equities
20.7.21 08:30
37
A significant development over the past few days
28.7.21 15:04
38
Q2 US earnings season has been spectacular so far
02.8.21 15:28
39
Earnings delivery has been very strong
09.8.21 15:35
40
We continue to see the global economy accelerating in 2...
10.8.21 09:00
41
The collapse in inventories will be a bigger boost to g...
10.8.21 09:34
42
We continue to hold a bullish Equities view into year-e...
10.8.21 10:45
43
Notenbank-Gouverneur Holzmann: "Wir mssen nicht das ga...
01.9.21 10:01
44
We retain a pro-risk allocation on strong global growth
14.9.21 13:54
45
What on Earth Is Going on in Commodities?interessant
19.9.21 08:47
46
RE: What on Earth Is Going on in Commodities?
19.9.21 10:18
47
      RE: What on Earth Is Going on in Commodities?
19.9.21 11:12
48
      RE: What on Earth Is Going on in Commodities?
19.9.21 11:13
49
JPMorgans Kolanovic Sees Stock Rout Overdone, Urges Di...
20.9.21 21:18
50
RE: JPMorgans Kolanovic Sees Stock Rout Overdone, Urge...gut analysiert
20.9.21 23:21
51
      RE: JPMorgans Kolanovic Sees Stock Rout Overdone, Urge...
21.9.21 09:52
52
we see sell-offs as opportunities to buy the dip
27.9.21 19:03
53
keep buying into any weakness
04.10.21 20:47
54
gelscht
06.10.21 12:45
55
gelscht
06.10.21 12:44
56
Our core view remains that the COVID situation will con...
06.10.21 22:49
57
We are bullish on Equities
11.10.21 20:40
58
The Q3 reporting season is unlikely to disappoint overa...
27.10.21 15:15
59
Global supply chain pressures are easing
10.11.21 12:09
60
Baltic Dry Index ist seit Mitte Oktober kollabiert
10.11.21 12:13
61
Goldman-Prognose Omikron: Vier Szenarien fr die Weltwi...
30.11.21 06:36
62
Omicron variant doesn't shake Goldman Sachs' bullish 20...
20.12.21 19:05
63
Wifo-Chef Felbermayr: "Haben auch berreagiert"
27.12.21 08:53
64
Der Rckenwind fr die Brsen wird nchstes Jahr schwc...
27.12.21 09:05
65
JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff In ...
27.12.21 20:05
66
RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...interessant
28.12.21 13:48
67
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...interessant
28.12.21 13:50
68
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...
28.12.21 14:33
69
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...
28.12.21 17:51
70
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...
28.12.21 19:56
71
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...
28.12.21 21:34
72
      RE: JPMorgan Says Investors Are Too Bearish, No Selloff...
29.12.21 08:02
73
Ein Strau voller Ausblicke
29.12.21 09:02
74
Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of ...interessant
03.1.22 19:08
75
JPMorgan: Aktienmarktrally hat noch reichlich Luft
04.1.22 09:34
76
Morgan Stanley Strategists Join Herd of Bulls for Europ...
07.1.22 20:24
77
Fear & Greed Index
21.1.22 21:44
78
U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hi...
23.1.22 18:38
79
RBI: Aktien auch 2022 alternativlos - EZB wohl bald vor...
24.1.22 14:21
80
Brezinschek erwartet heuer vier Fed-Zinserhhungen
27.1.22 15:50
81
JPMorgan Strategists Say Buy Stocks as Rate Hikes Now P...
07.2.22 12:12
82
Ken Fisher: Aktienmarkt knnte auch 2022 boomen
08.2.22 16:57
83
Fear&Greed Index
17.2.22 09:09
84
JPMorgan's Kolanovic Says Stocks Will Rise on Pandemic ...
23.2.22 16:16
85
The World has changed and changed utterly
25.2.22 10:07
86
Kriegszeiten: Das rt Warren Buffett
12.3.22 19:11
87
The Future is Long Term Energy, Defence, CyberSecurity ...
15.3.22 14:19
88
wenn der "Fed-Put" zum "PBOC-Put" wird...interessant
16.3.22 08:46
89
Investment-Guru El-Erian rt: "Aktienanteil erhhen"
25.3.22 06:28
90
On that happy note...
28.3.22 08:40
91
AK-Prantner empfiehlt Aktien und Gold
03.4.22 18:39
92
The Ukraine War has catalysed a tsunami of negative eco...
21.4.22 10:12
93
JPMorgan Expects S&P 500 Earnings to Blow Past Gloomy E...
22.4.22 06:38
94
The Penny Drops: April Exposes Markets to Some Brutal T...
29.4.22 14:04
95
Stock Market Rebound Not Far Off as Fears Overblown, ...
03.5.22 10:58
96
RE:Cathie Woods Famed Market-Beating Return Is Disappe...
10.5.22 08:22
97
RE:Cathie Woods Famed Market-Beating Return Is Disappe...witzigwitzig
10.5.22 08:42
98
      RE:Cathie Woods Famed Market-Beating Return Is Disappe...
10.5.22 08:51
99
Tricks make headlines, but winners execute the basics.....
11.5.22 18:01
100
Equity markets price in too much recession risk
18.5.22 13:12
101
The Crypto Bubble is Bursting
20.5.22 10:40
102
Jamie Dimon Says JPMorgan Is Bracing Itself for Economi...
01.6.22 20:28
103
We maintain our positive view
06.6.22 20:34
104
RE: We maintain our positive view
06.6.22 21:39
105
ein knappes Prozent im Minus indiziert und die Schuldig...
07.6.22 08:33
106
Geldmarkt preist nun auch fr die EZB einen 50-Basispun...
07.6.22 10:01
107
xxx
09.6.22 09:26
108
Ken Fisher: "Exactly the kind of broad pessimism ...
09.6.22 09:28
109
The tipping point is not a question of if, but when
13.6.22 15:17
110
Die Permabullen wieder
14.6.22 13:43
111
Die Permabullen ... und wieder
15.6.22 07:05
112
Fear & Greed Index
14.6.22 15:02
113
The Age of Divergence Buy Dollars, Sell Europe
17.6.22 15:46
114
JPMorgans Kolanovic Sees a 7% Boost for Stocks From Re...
25.6.22 10:31
115
Has Covid Changed the Capital Markets for the Better?
30.6.22 13:02
116
Outlook for the second half? Rising interest rates and ...
30.6.22 13:13
117
'Risky asset prices are too cheap' if recession avoided...
30.6.22 15:39
118
Goldman Sachs: Risiko fr Aktien hoch
05.7.22 08:14
119
Marktanalyse: Eine Angst zu viel?
10.7.22 09:36
120
How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China ...
14.7.22 09:59
121
RE: How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is Ch...
14.7.22 10:39
122
Inflation hits new high, Fed to hike 100 bp, Growth Sto...
14.7.22 10:28
123
UK is a basket case
19.8.22 17:44
124
RE: UK is a basket case
20.8.22 10:32
125
      RE: UK is a basket case
20.8.22 10:41
126
Goldman Says Buy Commodities, Worry About Recession La...
29.8.22 08:21
127
Jeremy Grantham Warns Super Bubble in Stocks Has Yet ...
01.9.22 14:35
128
Cathie Woods ARKK Sees Biggest Monthly Outflow in Near...
01.9.22 21:28
129
At the risk of stating the obvious, 2022 has been a cha...
04.9.22 19:51
130
Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good...
07.9.22 09:31
131
Forget the dead cat bounce, its all about inflation and...
13.9.22 10:57
132
China and Russia what will Putin get?
14.9.22 14:03
133
Narratives change quickly
18.9.22 09:24
134
Global markets look pants
21.9.22 11:25
135
Goldman Sachs cuts 2022 target for S&P 500 by 16%
23.9.22 16:10
136
Summers Calls UK Fiscal Policy 'Naive Wishful Thinking'
24.9.22 09:04
137
Bond Vigilantes - Collateral Calls
28.9.22 15:47
138
Bewertungstechnisch zeigt sich der ATX historisch gnst...
01.10.22 14:56
139

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