Global cases rose by 2.0 per cent to just under
4.9m, while reported covid-19 fatalities rose by 1.5 per cent to over 323,000.
again highlight the latest weekly ONS statistics for England and Wales, which give some of the most
granular age-related data on deaths caused by covid-19 yet. So far, one in every 72 people in over 90
years old (population around 547,000) has died of covid-19. A relatively sizeable number considering it
has only been transmitting for a few months. For those over 70 years old the ratio is currently one in
At the other end of the spectrum, zero 5-9 years old (population around
3.7m) have died so far. In fact of those 19yrs old and under, ‘only’ one in every 1.3m have died to date.
There are 14m in this population.
These low numbers are partly due to the relatively
short time the virus has spread through the community. To further the analysis we have made some
assumptions as to how many in each age group the virus would kill if everyone in the world became
exposed. To do this we have assumed a global case mortality rate of 0.75 per cent which many scientists
believe would be in the right ballpark if the virus was left to spread in an unmitigated manner. We have
then worked out a total number based on the England and Wales population and proportioned fatalities into
each age buckets given the ratios seen so far in this crisis. This analysis includes some
huge assumptions, but we estimate that 16.6 per cent of the over 90 year old population would die (1 in
every 6) if all exposed. For those over 70, we think the fatality rate would be 4.6 per cent (1 in every
22). For those 14 years and under, the fatality rate could ‘only’ be around one in every 298,000 based on
proportionally allocating deaths. With such low numbers of fatalities in this age group at the moment you
would have to be very cautious about over interpreting this projected number though.
For those 20-64 years old (a proxy for the working age cohort) we estimate that the fatality
rate would be 0.1 per cent on this basis which equates to one in every 672 people.
Again we would stress that many assumptions have been used for this analysis and a small
change somewhere along the way may make a big difference to the results. Hopefully it is food for
Looking at how cases are developing across the world, the UK as a whole saw
cases rise by 1.0 per cent, a drop from the last three days and against the normal Tuesday rise after
lower weekend numbers. However fatalities rose by 1.6 per cent, the highest rate in seven days and above
the five-day average of 1.1 per cent. That is a sizeable Tuesday effect after low weekend numbers. The
trend is still generally down, though.
US cases rose by 1.3 per cent, under the 1.5
per cent five-day average. Fatalities in the country rose 1.8 per cent, a jump from the five-day average
of 1.1 per cent. That is something to watch as various states reopen their economies.
Germany had an increase in daily case growth to 0.7 per cent, but the five-day average still
sits at the nearly one-month average of 0.4 per cent. Fatalities in the country rose 1.0 per cent,
slightly up from recent days.
Russia now has nearly 300,000 cases, with total
infections rising by 3.2 per cent over the past 24 hours for the second day in a row. The country
continues to see growth slow, but at over three per cent it is the second-fastest growing country in the
top ten. Fatalities rose by 4.2 per cent, in line with the 5 five-day average.
has now risen to the third most affected country in the world, passing the UK in the last day. Brazilian
cases rose by 6.5 per cent, above the five-day average of 6.0 per cent. Fatalities rose by 6.7 per cent,
above the five-day average of 5.1 per cent.
Spain is likely to vote today on
extending the country’s state of emergency, even as some restrictions are lifted. With this backdrop, 69
people died from covid-19 over the past 24 hours (0.2 per cent growth). Cases grew by 0.2 per cent,
continuing the trend of sub-one per cent growth.
Iran continues to see a steadily
growing case count, after relaxing some restrictions back in late April, with 1.7 per cent growth in
infections over the last day. Worryingly fatalities grew at 0.9 per cent, in line with two weeks back and
slightly over the recent five-day average.
Singapore: It was
announced that more businesses can reopen from 2 June, while schools will also begin to reopen.
Greece will lift the ban on travel to its islands for non-residents starting May 25. Travel to
the large islands of Crete and Evvia was allowed from this past Monday. The country will also extend the
requirement for a two-week quarantine for all visitors arriving in Greece to May 31.
Scientists at the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found
that those who tested positive after recovering were not infectious.
The UK’s Office
for National Statistics said that the share of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending
8 May which mentioned covid-19 was 31.1 per cent. This was down from 33.6 per cent the previous week.
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