We expect the post-OPEC $50/bbl (Brent) floor to hold as the market receives confirmation of Q1-19 supply reduction. By the end of Q1 we would expect to see risks balanced around the Brent USD 63/bbl level. Reasons for a more positive bias are: (i) confirmation of OPEC+ co-ordinated supply reduction, (ii) reassurance that global economic growth remains healthy, and (iii) indication that the US will seek to further tighten compliance with Iran sanctions through reduced quotas in May.The Dec-Jan v-shaped oil price dip was more correlated with equity jitters than the preceding decline, which was arguably more fundamentally entwined with the OPEC supply ramp-up. With Brent back at USD 60/bbl and equity prices consolidating, the oil market can arguably retreat to lower levels of equity correlation. Weaker European demand, however, may mean limited upside from here. Eurozone manufacturing PMI leads OECD European total products demand and implies a weaker 2019 profile. We lower our European demand growth forecast accordingly from +122 kb/d to -130 kb/d, with risk for a decline of as much as -240 kb/d (-1.7%) for OECD Europe.Global oil demand growth is lowered to +1.15 mmb/d as a result, but even so, we expect oversupply fears will prove overdone. OPEC-15 supply should fall an additional ~900 kb/d in Q1, after a drop of 500 kb/d in December, before including any cuts from non-OPEC partners. We see 2019 fundamentals near neutral at -168 kb/d deficit, signaling a meaningful improvement from OPEC-induced surpluses in H2-18, and implying prices back near equilibrium of USD 65/bbl Brent by year-end.There are few upcoming milestones apart from the expected OPEC statement about implementation details and confirming country-level commitments. An April OPEC+ agreement to extend discipline appears likely. Further out, we would look for support from a possible moderation in US tight oil investment, helped by rising costs since 2017.We expect that the late 2018 rise in OECD inventories from 60 to 61 days will be contained below 61 in 2019. This is midway between the 2010-14 average of 57.8, and the 2016 average of 65.2, and implies prices in 2019 will not exhibit a more significant or protracted decline.This relatively uneventful outlook raises the question, What could possibly go wrong? US supply growth could outperform expectations again, which seems more likely than underperformance given the near-doubling of Permian uncompleted wells in a year's time. OPEC+ compliance could fade, or it may relax supply discipline in April when it meets to reconsider its strategy. A further weakening of global growth momentum could lead to more severe downgrades to demand. If most of these risks are to the downside, it may be the lens of recent experience that lends a bias to our outlook.

Deutsche Bank


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Erdöl/Ölpreis-Thread - Öl, Oil, Brent, Crude V [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: Warren Buffett(1789), 14.5.18 19:44
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Opec-Bericht: Ölschwemme ist passé
14.5.18 19:46
OPEC Expects U.S. Shale to Steal Market Share Until Lat...
23.9.18 19:27
Rekord bei Ölproduktion
13.10.18 11:19
Oil Short-Selling Jumps in Record Streak as Faith in OP...
19.11.18 10:53
Katar will im Jänner aus der OPEC aussteigen
03.12.18 09:05
RE: Katar will im Jänner aus der OPEC aussteigen
03.12.18 09:18
Experten erwarten bei Opec-Treffen erneute Kürzung der ...
04.12.18 08:31
Zeichen stehen auf Förderkürzung der OPEC+
05.12.18 19:36
USA exportieren erstmals mehr Öl als sie importieren
07.12.18 10:00
OPEC einigte sich auf Förderkürzung
07.12.18 17:48
Stabilising action from OPEC
10.12.18 08:45
OPEC-Öl-Drosselung erst in drei Monaten unterschriftsre...
11.12.18 10:10
Russland will Öl-Fördermenge schrittweise drosseln
13.12.18 08:52
We expect the post-OPEC $50/bbl (Brent) floor to hold
11.1.19 07:49
OPEC Output Falls Most in Almost Two Years as Saudi Cut...
17.1.19 13:26
IEA, OPEC and EIA released their monthly oil outlooks
20.1.19 11:56
How OPEC Is Helping U.S. Oil Reach a Tipping Point
20.1.19 15:23
OPEC and IEA published their monthly reports this week
18.2.19 17:04
Deutschland vervierfachte Ölimporte aus den USA
23.2.19 13:34
China kurbelt weltweite Nachfrage nach LNG an
25.2.19 09:59
Erdgasvorkommen südlich von Zypern entdeckt
28.2.19 20:53
Tightening the Venezuela screw
01.3.19 12:33
OPEC cuts and then cuts some more
03.3.19 12:17
Energieagentur IEA erwartet starken Anstieg der US-Ölex...
11.3.19 16:34
Saudiarabien will Ölpreis stützen
11.3.19 20:31
Durst der Welt nach Öl bleibt groß
21.3.19 09:23
Saudiarabien droht mit dem Ende des Petrodollars
06.4.19 11:55
RE: Saudiarabien droht mit dem Ende des Petrodollars
07.4.19 10:59
Libyen-Krise treibt Ölpreis auf Fünfmonatshoch
08.4.19 09:20
Oil prices should finally break out of the recent tradi...
08.4.19 13:25
OPEC discipline to lift crude oil further
09.4.19 12:01
Finanzinvestoren werfen den Saudis das Geld nach
11.4.19 09:46
RE: Finanzinvestoren werfen den Saudis das Geld nach
11.4.19 10:18
      RE: Finanzinvestoren werfen den Saudis das Geld nachgut analysiert
11.4.19 10:35
Warum der Ölpreis trotz neuer Krise am Golf ruhig bleib...
16.4.19 09:21
RE: Warum der Ölpreis trotz neuer Krise am Golf ruhig b...
23.4.19 22:44
USA dürften iranische Erdölexporte komplett stoppen
22.4.19 14:21
RE: USA dürften iranische Erdölexporte komplett stoppen
22.4.19 18:28
OPEC tritt bei Ölförderung wohl weiter auf die Bremse
12.6.19 10:00
Oil Supply to Swamp Demand in 2020 and Squeeze OPEC, IE...
14.6.19 10:56

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