With some major downside risks to the global economy having been
avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing, we believe that global growth will
gain speed over the coming months, and even though we already became more bullish in Q4, we have again
upgraded our 2020 forecasts for the US, the Euro Area and China.
A key driver behind our
upgrades has been the positive resolution of a number of previous downside risks. The agreement of a
Phase One deal between the US and China has avoided a further escalation in tariffs between the two
sides, and led to a partial rollback of some existing tariffs. In the UK, the general election result has
provided a stable majority in the House of Commons in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement reached with the
EU. Furthermore, recent monetary stimulus from global central banks and an easing of financial conditions
have helped to support growth.
As we look forward into 2020 there are still a number of risks
that could knock our forecasts off course. We’ve already been reminded of geopolitical risks so far this
year and this needs to be watched. Meanwhile, important trade negotiations will continue to take
centre-stage in 2020, with the US-China trade talks moving towards their second phase, trade discussions
between the US and the EU ongoing, and the start of them between the EU and the UK. The US election in
November will also increasingly pre-occupy investors as we move through the year.
In spite of
our positivity on the economic outlook, our strategists’ views are more nuanced. After a decade of
continuous (and accurate) street topping double digit annual forecasts for the S&P 500, our strategists
expect a flat return in 2020. A big change. Positioning and valuations are stretched. Elsewhere we retain
a bearish call on oil and GBP, and also see 10-year bund yields moving to zero by year-end.
Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nutzung ausschließlich für den privaten Eigenbedarf.
Eine Weiterverwendung und Reproduktion über den persönlichen Gebrauch hinaus ist nicht gestattet.
Kursdaten: Powered by Interactive Data Managed Solutions (IDMS). IDMS und die Datenlieferanten übernehmen keine Gewähr für die Richtigkeit, Vollständigkeit und Aktualität der Inhalte des Informationssystems. Die Kursdaten werden je nach Vereinbarung mit den Börsen/Handelsplätzen in Realtime, 15 Min. verzögert oder End-of-Day dargestellt. Weitere Hinweise entnehmen Sie bitte unseren AGB (§4 Abs.7).