Trade uncertainty, in particular the US-China leg, is one of the
key overhangs for investor sentiment, but despite this, we are constructive on global equities into year
end. The view is based on a still accommodative DM central bank policy stance, well-behaved credit
markets, robust earnings growth and signs of stabilization in EM/Eurozone activity, in addition to
continued strong US dataflow. On top of this, we find the investor positioning to be much lighter than it
was at the start of the year and equities have experienced a significant multiple compression, of the
order of 10%. Investor complacency has evaporated, with most now fully expecting the trade backdrop to
get worse before it can get any better. The bar for a positive surprise is therefore much lower
currently. EM and China equities have already fallen more than 20% from the January peaks. We had entered
the year with a cautious view on EM equities which was very non-consensus at the time but have upgraded
in the summer. Unlike the expensive valuations in 2015, Shanghai composite P/E is near 15-year lows
currently and Chinese policy response is stepping up. Another key regional tilt we have is to remain OW
US vs European equities within developed markets despite what is an already significant European
underperformance. There is very limited visibility on future trade developments, but we note that the
latest developments on the US-Canada-Mexico trade negotiations were encouraging. Finally, seasonals are
turning positive now for stocks.
Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nutzung ausschließlich für den privaten Eigenbedarf.
Eine Weiterverwendung und Reproduktion über den persönlichen Gebrauch hinaus ist nicht gestattet.
Kursdaten: Powered by Interactive Data Managed Solutions (IDMS). IDMS und die Datenlieferanten übernehmen keine Gewähr für die Richtigkeit, Vollständigkeit und Aktualität der Inhalte des Informationssystems. Die Kursdaten werden je nach Vereinbarung mit den Börsen/Handelsplätzen in Realtime, 15 Min. verzögert oder End-of-Day dargestellt. Weitere Hinweise entnehmen Sie bitte unseren AGB (§4 Abs.7).