US-China tension and US equity selloff

We highlighted on Monday that the relations between China and the US deteriorated quickly in the past few weeks, and the market has not fully recognized the potential damage to US and Chinese firms. One month ago we expected the Chinese government to refrain from targeting US business interest in China. But after the speech by US Vice President Pence we see a rising risk that the trade war may be escalated to an economic war beyond trade. US business interests in China may be subject to retaliation if the US moves beyond tariff. Many US multinationals depend on China's market as a major revenue source.
The official visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Beijing on Monday reinforces our concerns. His visit only lasted for three hours, the shortest visit by a senior US official to China in history, as far as we know. The messages from his meetings in China indicate the two sides have "fundamental disagreements". Mr. Pompeo did not manage to meet senior leaders such as President Xi, Premier Li, or the Vice President and Vice Premiers. The confrontation between the two sides intensified.
The US equity selloff on Wednesday shows the market may have finally started to price in this risk. We think the selloff makes the Chinese government more likely to follow a "wait and see" strategy. With neither side willing to compromise, the bilateral relation will likely deteriorate further, causing more pains for firms in China and the US.

Deutsche Bank

  

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European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling told CNBC that it was unfair to make comparisons between Italy amid concerns on its deficit plans and Greece at the height of its debt crisis, as the former has always been in a much better situation due to its relatively smaller deficits, current account surplus and high private sector savings.

  

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Diverse Gurus ber das aktuelle Brsengeschehen 7 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(296), 14.11.18 22:12
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
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RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
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      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
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      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
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      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
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      crash
05.2.18 23:02
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      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
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      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
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      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
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      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
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      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
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      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
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      Auch Tokio strzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
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      RE: Auch Tokio strzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
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      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
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      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
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      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
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      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
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      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
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      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
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      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
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      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
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      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
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      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
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Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
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`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
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buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
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Wienerberger - Der ideale bernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
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Max Otte: Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...
10.2.18 14:17
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CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
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Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
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Keine Brenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
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These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
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Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
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Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
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All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
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Schwere Zeiten fr Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
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Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
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Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
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Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
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The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
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Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
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U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
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US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
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QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
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Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
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US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
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Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
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ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
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growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
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The Tide Isnt Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
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Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
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Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
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      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
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      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Brsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
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ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trbt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
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Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
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Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
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JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
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What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
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What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
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RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
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Einfuhrzlle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
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RE: Einfuhrzlle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
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JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
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Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
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Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
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Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
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Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
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10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
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The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
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Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
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JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
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Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
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The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
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Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
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Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
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RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
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Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
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We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
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      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
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Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
01.6.18 16:22
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RE: Trump twittert:
03.6.18 20:50
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Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamen...
02.6.18 18:52
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RE: Diverse Gurus ber das aktuelle Brsengeschehen 7
12.6.18 08:37
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ECB policy announcement a material negative for the eur...
14.6.18 14:56
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A yield curve inversion at the longer end also
18.6.18 09:14
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Fed: This is not a consistent forecast
19.6.18 13:48
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The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify
20.6.18 16:31
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Trade war tensions
27.6.18 11:03
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RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit grtes Risiko fr Kapita...
27.6.18 14:07
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Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause
02.7.18 21:42
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Trade war noch egal
09.7.18 10:36
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Autos have never been this cheap
09.7.18 18:06
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Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Mustersch...
13.7.18 12:05
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Economics:
15.7.18 12:41
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Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity
15.7.18 12:50
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Lets spend less time looking at the yield curve and mo...
16.7.18 15:15
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How strong is corporate activity?
16.7.18 15:51
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Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimi...
18.7.18 09:45
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Quantifying trade war is difficult
18.7.18 17:39
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Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 14:59
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RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 15:21
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@realDonaldTrump: Euro ist manipuliert
20.7.18 14:51
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:31
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch gut analysiertwitzig
20.7.18 16:51
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:53
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 17:04
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:08
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:39
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:07
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:15
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 11:30
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 13:10
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch interessant
21.7.18 13:50
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RE: @realDonaldTrump: Vorschlag: Drop all Tariffs
25.7.18 11:14
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How late is the cycle?
21.7.18 09:05
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Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting seas...
23.7.18 15:21
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Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constr...
29.7.18 17:14
131
Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earni...
05.8.18 17:03
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Fridays 157k jobs headline significantly understates t...
06.8.18 09:48
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Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
06.8.18 11:29
134
Earning season so far
06.8.18 11:38
135
US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise
06.8.18 14:29
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I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel a...
10.8.18 14:51
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RBI-konom Deuber: sterreich ist von Trkei-Krise weni...
12.8.18 12:18
138
Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious
12.8.18 16:47
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WIIW-Experte: Trkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich ...
13.8.18 15:11
140
Turkey: What are the risks?
16.8.18 12:24
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Trade War Wont Dent Chinas GDP
20.8.18 09:40
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Investment-Punk im Interview
02.9.18 22:45
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RE: Investment-Punk im Interview
03.9.18 05:44
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      RE: Investment-Punk im Interview
03.9.18 06:13
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      RE: Investment-Punk im Interview
03.9.18 10:09
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      RE: Investment-Punk im Interview
03.9.18 10:53
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      RE: Investment-Punk im Interview
03.9.18 11:24
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Alois Wgerbauer: Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht l...
04.9.18 08:41
149
A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade h...
10.9.18 20:41
150
Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce i...
17.9.18 12:32
151
Goldman Says Rising U.S. Rates Boiling the Frog of Ri...
17.9.18 15:56
152
"Ohne Gegenmanahmen gewinnt Trump im Handelskrieg"
19.9.18 10:07
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Das Fed-Problem
21.9.18 11:38
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Cyclicals will rebound
23.9.18 16:33
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lpreisprognoseanhebung
23.9.18 18:17
156
Nowotny, seufz
23.9.18 19:51
157
RBI-Brezinschek: Gute Aussichten fr Wirtschaft und Fin...
28.9.18 16:02
158
JPMorgan Says U.S.-China Tariffs to Go All Out
30.9.18 15:47
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Schieferfelder sind relativ rasch leer gepumpt
02.10.18 09:48
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Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields
09.10.18 14:31
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Why are retail investors still cautious?
09.10.18 14:48
162
US-China tension and US equity selloff
11.10.18 12:34
163
Unfair to make comparisons between Italy and Greece
11.10.18 12:39
164
The
11.10.18 14:21
165
Update on Market Moves
12.10.18 19:05
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JPMorgan: The dip should be bought
13.10.18 10:35
167
The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be...
13.10.18 13:49
168
Global Equity Strategy View
13.10.18 14:06
169
Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China
15.10.18 10:13
170
JPMorgan Global Equity strategists
21.10.18 16:31
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US: Majority of systematic selling behind (~80%)
21.10.18 16:33
172
Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved
25.10.18 15:09
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some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex
30.10.18 18:14
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Crowding out?
31.10.18 14:41
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VIX has produced a buy signal
03.11.18 19:56
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US economy remains the most competitive economy in the ...
05.11.18 07:55
177
Two competing narratives
06.11.18 10:51
178
split Congress is the best outcome for US and global eq...
07.11.18 18:08
179
Lower oil prices is good news
14.11.18 21:47
180
JPM Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equitie...
18.11.18 14:16
181
Will Value Come Back?
18.11.18 15:01
182
Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Bank...
02.12.18 15:44
183
JPMorgan Asset Says Cash Better Than Stocks First Time ...
04.12.18 10:22
184
Goldman Sees Another Weak Year After a Lousy 2018
04.12.18 15:10
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2018 will mark the year of the great de-rating
05.12.18 10:18
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Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at 2019 an...
05.12.18 15:29
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Erste-Fondsmanager fr 2019 optimistisch: Mehr Chancen ...
05.12.18 16:57
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No need to worry
07.12.18 08:21
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RE: No need to worry
07.12.18 10:23
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We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bonds
08.12.18 14:29
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RE: We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bond...
08.12.18 14:59
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US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 18:15
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RE: US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 19:00
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      RE: US Equities in 2019
10.12.18 08:41
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      Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rt ...interessant
10.12.18 12:56
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      RE: Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rt ...
10.12.18 13:29
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      2018 has delivered losses on almost every asset class
10.12.18 14:34
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