Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve and associated recession talk, but the shape of the curve is a distraction. The reality is that the Fed has an inflation target of 2% and core CPI inflation is 2.1% and according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model core PCE inflation in March will come in at 1.9%. Despite the strong uptrend in inflation, the consensus expects core PCE to hit 2% next quarter and then stay at 2.0% for the coming 12 months. In the history of economics, it has never happened in any country anywhere in the world that inflation has hit the target and stayed at exactly that level for 12 months. The risk of an inflation overshoot is rising, and as a result, the belly and the long end of the curve will move higher, finally recognizing that the Fed is right that higher rates are needed across the curve to cool down inflation and the economy.

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Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(296), 14.11.18 22:12
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: „Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...“
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Bärenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
43
All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
50
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52
U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
53
US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
54
QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
55
Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
56
US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
57
Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
58
ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
59
growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
60
The Tide Isn’t Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
61
Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
62
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
63
      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
64
      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
65
ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
66
Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
67
Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
68
JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
69
What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
70
What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
71
RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
72
Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
73
RE: Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
74
JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
75
Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
76
Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
77
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
78
Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
79
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
80
10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
81
The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
82
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
83
Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
84
JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
85
Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
86
The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
87
Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
88
Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
89
RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
90
Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
91
We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
92
      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
93
Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
01.6.18 16:22
94
RE: Trump twittert:
03.6.18 20:50
95
Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamen...
02.6.18 18:52
96
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
12.6.18 08:37
97
ECB policy announcement a material negative for the eur...
14.6.18 14:56
98
A yield curve inversion at the longer end also
18.6.18 09:14
99
Fed: This is not a consistent forecast
19.6.18 13:48
100
The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify
20.6.18 16:31
101
Trade war tensions
27.6.18 11:03
102
RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapita...
27.6.18 14:07
103
Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause
02.7.18 21:42
104
Trade war noch egal
09.7.18 10:36
105
Autos have never been this cheap
09.7.18 18:06
106
Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschü...
13.7.18 12:05
107
Economics:
15.7.18 12:41
108
Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity
15.7.18 12:50
109
Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and mo...
16.7.18 15:15
110
How strong is corporate activity?
16.7.18 15:51
111
Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimi...
18.7.18 09:45
112
Quantifying trade war is difficult
18.7.18 17:39
113
Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 14:59
114
RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 15:21
115
@realDonaldTrump: Euro ist manipuliert
20.7.18 14:51
116
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:31
117
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch gut analysiertwitzig
20.7.18 16:51
118
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:53
119
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 17:04
120
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:08
121
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:39
122
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:07
123
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:15
124
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 11:30
125
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 13:10
126
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch interessant
21.7.18 13:50
127
RE: @realDonaldTrump: Vorschlag: Drop all Tariffs
25.7.18 11:14
128
How late is the cycle?
21.7.18 09:05
129
Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting seas...
23.7.18 15:21
130
Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constr...
29.7.18 17:14
131
Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earni...
05.8.18 17:03
132
Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates t...
06.8.18 09:48
133
Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
06.8.18 11:29
134
Earning season so far
06.8.18 11:38
135
US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise
06.8.18 14:29
136
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel a...
10.8.18 14:51
137
RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise weni...
12.8.18 12:18
138
Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious
12.8.18 16:47
139
WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich ...
13.8.18 15:11
140
Turkey: What are the risks?
16.8.18 12:24
141
Trade War Won’t Dent China’s GDP
20.8.18 09:40
142
„Investment-Punk“ im Interview
02.9.18 22:45
143
RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 05:44
144
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 06:13
145
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:09
146
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:53
147
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 11:24
148
Alois Wögerbauer: Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht l...
04.9.18 08:41
149
A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade h...
10.9.18 20:41
150
Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce i...
17.9.18 12:32
151
Goldman Says Rising U.S. Rates ‘Boiling the Frog’ of Ri...
17.9.18 15:56
152
"Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gewinnt Trump im Handelskrieg"
19.9.18 10:07
153
Das Fed-Problem
21.9.18 11:38
154
Cyclicals will rebound
23.9.18 16:33
155
Ölpreisprognoseanhebung
23.9.18 18:17
156
Nowotny, seufz
23.9.18 19:51
157
RBI-Brezinschek: Gute Aussichten für Wirtschaft und Fin...
28.9.18 16:02
158
JPMorgan Says U.S.-China Tariffs to Go All Out
30.9.18 15:47
159
„Schieferfelder sind relativ rasch leer gepumpt“
02.10.18 09:48
160
Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields
09.10.18 14:31
161
Why are retail investors still cautious?
09.10.18 14:48
162
US-China tension and US equity selloff
11.10.18 12:34
163
Unfair to make comparisons between Italy and Greece
11.10.18 12:39
164
The
11.10.18 14:21
165
Update on Market Moves
12.10.18 19:05
166
JPMorgan: The dip should be bought
13.10.18 10:35
167
The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be...
13.10.18 13:49
168
Global Equity Strategy View
13.10.18 14:06
169
Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China
15.10.18 10:13
170
JPMorgan Global Equity strategists
21.10.18 16:31
171
US: Majority of systematic selling behind (~80%)
21.10.18 16:33
172
Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved
25.10.18 15:09
173
some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex
30.10.18 18:14
174
Crowding out?
31.10.18 14:41
175
VIX has produced a buy signal
03.11.18 19:56
176
US economy remains the most competitive economy in the ...
05.11.18 07:55
177
Two competing narratives
06.11.18 10:51
178
split Congress is the best outcome for US and global eq...
07.11.18 18:08
179
Lower oil prices is good news
14.11.18 21:47
180
JPM Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equitie...
18.11.18 14:16
181
Will Value Come Back?
18.11.18 15:01
182
Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Bank...
02.12.18 15:44
183
JPMorgan Asset Says Cash Better Than Stocks First Time ...
04.12.18 10:22
184
Goldman Sees Another Weak Year After a Lousy 2018
04.12.18 15:10
185
2018 will mark the year of the great de-rating
05.12.18 10:18
186
Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at 2019 an...
05.12.18 15:29
187
Erste-Fondsmanager für 2019 optimistisch: Mehr Chancen ...
05.12.18 16:57
188
No need to worry
07.12.18 08:21
189
RE: No need to worry
07.12.18 10:23
190
We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bonds
08.12.18 14:29
191
RE: We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bond...
08.12.18 14:59
192
US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 18:15
193
RE: US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 19:00
194
      RE: US Equities in 2019
10.12.18 08:41
195
      Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...interessant
10.12.18 12:56
196
      RE: Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...
10.12.18 13:29
197
      2018 has delivered losses on almost every asset class
10.12.18 14:34
198
      Extreme Fear
10.12.18 17:43
199
      Re: Extreme fear
10.12.18 22:04
200
Gehälter steigen
12.12.18 19:30
201
China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:02
202
RE: China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:08
203
ECB: there was one surprise
15.12.18 20:03
204
Equity markets arrested their decline this week
16.12.18 13:05
205

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