All the President's deficits

Most countries try to avoid material fiscal easing when the economy is near full employment, but the US has just done so twice in two months. JPM has upgraded its US growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019; lowered its unemployment rate target to a 50-yr low (3.2% in 2019); and raised its deficit projection to the highest in 50 years (5.4%) outside of the Global Financial Crisis. Our economists call for four Fed hikes in 2018 and 2019 is unchanged.
Markets seem only slightly unnerved by US fiscal policy. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens have been trending higher since December, but these moves might have occurred anyway due to the economys momentum entering 2018 and the tightening of oil markets.
Evidence of fiscal anxiety is more circumstantial and comes in the form of the dollars decoupling from cross-country rate differentials, golds decoupling from US real interest rates and a reversal of the usually negative stock/bond price correlation.

JPMorgan

  

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Diverse Gurus ber das aktuelle Brsengeschehen 7 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(588), 03.2.18 16:08
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio strzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio strzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale bernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Brenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
43
All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten fr Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
50
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52
U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
53
US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
54
QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
55
Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
56
US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
57
Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
58
ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
59
growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
60
The Tide Isnt Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
61
Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
62
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
63
      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
64
      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Brsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
65
ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trbt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
66
Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
67
Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
68
JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
69
What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
70
What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
71
RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
72
Einfuhrzlle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
73
RE: Einfuhrzlle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
74
JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
75
Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
76
Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
77
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
78
Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
79
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
80
10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
81
The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
82
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
83
Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
84
JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
85
Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
86
The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
87
Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
88
Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
89
RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
90
Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
91
We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
92
      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
93

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