All the President's deficits

• Most countries try to avoid material fiscal easing when the economy is near full employment, but the US has just done so twice in two months. JPM has upgraded its US growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019; lowered its unemployment rate target to a 50-yr low (3.2% in 2019); and raised its deficit projection to the highest in 50 years (5.4%) outside of the Global Financial Crisis. Our economist’s call for four Fed hikes in 2018 and 2019 is unchanged.
• Markets seem only slightly unnerved by US fiscal policy. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens have been trending higher since December, but these moves might have occurred anyway due to the economy’s momentum entering 2018 and the tightening of oil markets.
• Evidence of fiscal anxiety is more circumstantial and comes in the form of the dollar’s decoupling from cross-country rate differentials, gold’s decoupling from US real interest rates and a reversal of the usually negative stock/bond price correlation.

JPMorgan

  

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Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(588), 03.2.18 16:08
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: „Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...“
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Bärenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
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All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
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Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
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BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52

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