All the President's deficits

• Most countries try to avoid material fiscal easing when the economy is near full employment, but the US has just done so twice in two months. JPM has upgraded its US growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019; lowered its unemployment rate target to a 50-yr low (3.2% in 2019); and raised its deficit projection to the highest in 50 years (5.4%) outside of the Global Financial Crisis. Our economist’s call for four Fed hikes in 2018 and 2019 is unchanged.
• Markets seem only slightly unnerved by US fiscal policy. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens have been trending higher since December, but these moves might have occurred anyway due to the economy’s momentum entering 2018 and the tightening of oil markets.
• Evidence of fiscal anxiety is more circumstantial and comes in the form of the dollar’s decoupling from cross-country rate differentials, gold’s decoupling from US real interest rates and a reversal of the usually negative stock/bond price correlation.

JPMorgan

  

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Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7 [Alle anzeigen] , Rang: SieurKolou74(296), 03.2.18 16:08
 
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: „Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...“
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Bärenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
43
All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
50
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52
U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
53
US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
54
QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
55
Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
56
US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
57
Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
58
ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
59
growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
60
The Tide Isn’t Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
61
Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
62
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
63
      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
64
      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
65
ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
66
Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
67
Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
68
JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
69
What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
70
What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
71
RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
72
Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
73
RE: Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
74
JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
75
Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
76
Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
77
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
78
Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
79
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
80
10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
81
The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
82
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
83
Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
84
JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
85
Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
86
The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
87
Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
88
Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
89
RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
90
Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
91
We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
92
      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
93
Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
01.6.18 16:22
94
RE: Trump twittert:
03.6.18 20:50
95
Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamen...
02.6.18 18:52
96
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
12.6.18 08:37
97
ECB policy announcement a material negative for the eur...
14.6.18 14:56
98
A yield curve inversion at the longer end also
18.6.18 09:14
99
Fed: This is not a consistent forecast
19.6.18 13:48
100
The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify
20.6.18 16:31
101
Trade war tensions
27.6.18 11:03
102
RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapita...
27.6.18 14:07
103
Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause
02.7.18 21:42
104
Trade war noch egal
09.7.18 10:36
105
Autos have never been this cheap
09.7.18 18:06
106
Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschü...
13.7.18 12:05
107
Economics:
15.7.18 12:41
108
Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity
15.7.18 12:50
109
Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and mo...
16.7.18 15:15
110
How strong is corporate activity?
16.7.18 15:51
111
Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimi...
18.7.18 09:45
112
Quantifying trade war is difficult
18.7.18 17:39
113
Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 14:59
114
RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 15:21
115
@realDonaldTrump: Euro ist manipuliert
20.7.18 14:51
116
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:31
117
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch gut analysiertwitzig
20.7.18 16:51
118
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:53
119
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 17:04
120
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:08
121
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:39
122
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:07
123
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:15
124
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 11:30
125
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 13:10
126
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch interessant
21.7.18 13:50
127
RE: @realDonaldTrump: Vorschlag: Drop all Tariffs
25.7.18 11:14
128
How late is the cycle?
21.7.18 09:05
129
Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting seas...
23.7.18 15:21
130
Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constr...
29.7.18 17:14
131
Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earni...
05.8.18 17:03
132
Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates t...
06.8.18 09:48
133
Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
06.8.18 11:29
134
Earning season so far
06.8.18 11:38
135
US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise
06.8.18 14:29
136
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel a...
10.8.18 14:51
137
RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise weni...
12.8.18 12:18
138
Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious
12.8.18 16:47
139
WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich ...
13.8.18 15:11
140
Turkey: What are the risks?
16.8.18 12:24
141

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