Untenstehend die mE wichtigsten Punkte aus dem Prospekt so wie sie mir beim Durchlesen ins Auge
gestochen sind. Mein Fazit - sehr starke Marktposition, hervorragende Profitabilität und für 2011 sehr gute Aussichten (es konnte wegen Kapazitätsmangel nicht die ganze Nachfrage in 2010 erfüllt
werden und der Zwischenhändler in China wurde jetzt durch Gründung einer Tochter ausgeschaltet).
Die beiden wichtigsten Risikofaktoren sind meines Erachtens die Gefahr neuer Marktteilnehmer
(z.B. 3M wird genannt) die von den gewaltigen Margen angelockt werden könnten sowie eine
technologische Innovation die ihr einziges Produkt überflüssig machen könnte (allerdings gibt es
das nun seit über 20 Jahren...).
Daneben liefert man sich noch dem Hauptaktionär aus.
Fazit: Wenn die prognostizierten Solar-Wachstumsraten eintreffen und der Marktanteil gehalten
werden kann (nebst Margen) ist die Aktie nicht teuer. Ich werde trotzdem nicht zeichnen, weil für
mich diese Punkte nicht abschätzbar sind bzw. die Downside wenn etwas schief geht sehr groß ist. Es
würde mich aber nicht überraschen wenn sich der Kurs innerhalb von 2 Jahren verdoppelt.
We are the leading global provider of backsheets to the solar module industry with a market
share of approx. 35% based on revenues in 2009 (Source: Frost & Sullivan). We produce exclusively polymer backsheets. Our backsheets are predominately used in crystalline silicon and
only to a minor extent in thin-film solar modules.
Backsheets are a key component used
in solar modules, protecting the backside of photovoltaic cells of a solar module from
weathering, ultraviolet-light, moisture, chemical substances and mechanical damages. Backsheets also insulate the environment from the electrical voltage generated. While backsheets account for
only a small percentage (typically between 4% and 7% (Source: Company estimate)) of the cost of
a solar module, they are critical for the long-term performance of the solar module.
We
supply backsheets to many major solar module manufacturers. We believe we are the only major
participant in the backsheet market focusing on backsheet production as its only line of
business, which ensures the consistent quality of our products and production standards for our customers around the world. We believe that we serve more (six out of ten) top ten solar module
manufacturers in terms of worldwide production capacity in 2009 than any of our competitors. We
are well positioned with solar module manufacturers in Asia, especially manufacturers in China.
Our revenue share from Asian customers increased from 36% in 2008 to 68% in 2010. We are
convinced that we have gained a leading position (Source: Frost & Sullivan) as supplier of choice
for many of the largest solar module producers due to our long-standing relationships with
those customers, the quality of our products, backsheet customization capabilities and customer service.
We started in 1985, as a part of Isovolta, to develop high-quality backsheet
films for solar modules and have been selling backsheets on a commercial basis since 1987. Due to
our early involvement in the photovoltaic industry and our track record, we can draw on our
experience, special application engineering capabilities and an established network of
customers, suppliers and other business partners. Our ICOSOLAR® backsheets have proven
successful not only in standardized laboratory tests but also in field use. We have constantly
improved our backsheets and made several product innovations, such as our “AAA” and “APA/FPA” backsheet product families manufactured based on modified polyamides, which we started
to market in 2009 and which already accounted for approx. 39% of our revenues in 2010.
-------------------------------
Significantly improved raw material supply
Access to raw materials and pre-products is key in a market segment exposed to certain supply
bottlenecks. We believe we could have sold significantly more backsheets in 2010 if we had not
been subject to supply constraints in respect of PVF foils. Although the shortage of PVF foils has
deterred growth of polymer backsheets producers in recent years, we believe our 25 years of
experience in the supply markets and long-lasting relationships with suppliers (amongst others
DuPont, the only supplier of PVF foils/Tedlar® worldwide) have enabled us to deal with such
situations more effectively than most of our competitors. As a result, we believe we have better
access to input materials in short supply than most of our competitors. For example, we
believe we were able to secure a substantial part of oriented Tedlar® supply for our production in
2009 and 2010.
Due to the introduction of the “AAA” and “APA/FPA” product families in 2009, which are made of alternative raw materials, we have become much less
dependent on the supply of PVF foils. In addition, DuPont is in the process of significantly
expanding its PVF foil production capacities by 2012, which we expect to largely alleviate the
supply issues we observed in 2009 and 2010 for our “TPT” products. This should allow us to address the excess demand observed in 2010 and to benefit from expected future market growth.
--------------------------------
Recent Developments
As of January 1,
2011, the Chinese subsidiary CICM became fully operational as distributor and re-seller of the Company’s backsheets in China. Previously, a related party (no member of the Group) acted as
distributor and re-seller for a material part of Isovoltaic’s backsheets sold to Chinese customers, thus capturing certain sales and margins from a mark-up on the prices, for which the
Company sold its backsheets to such entity. From 2011 onwards, the Company will sell all
products to Chinese customers directly or via its subsidiary CICM and therefore all effects on
such sales and respective margins will be included in the consolidated financial statements going forward.
--------------------------------
Summary of Risk Factors
Neben dem üblichen Bla-Bla bzw. dem normalen unternehmerischen Risiko (d.h. die Risikohinweise
die man überall liest) sind folgende Punkte spezifisch:
Demand for our products depends
largely on governmental subsidies for photovoltaic energy and the regulatory environment.
Changes in scope of subsidies may have an adverse impact on demand for our products.
Nach Fukushima vermutlich nicht mehr sehr relevant.
The Selling Shareholders control and,
subsequent to the Offering, will continue to control management and operations and may act in
their own interests, which could differ from the interests of other shareholders.
Each of
the Selling Shareholders also holds one registered share ( Namensaktie) in the Company with the
right to nominate one member of the supervisory board (Aufsichtsrat) of the Company. While no
Selling Shareholder has made use of its right, there can be no assurance that it may not do so in
the future. Such special right is associated with ownership of a registered share and
independent of the overall shareholding — it may thus also be exercised by a shareholder
holding only this one share. Members of the supervisory board nominated by shareholders must not be more than 1/3 of all members of the supervisory board.
Technological changes in
the photovoltaic energy industry or our failure to develop and integrate new technologies
could render our backsheets uncompetitive or obsolete.
Nachdem sie nur dieses eine Produkt
haben nur zu wahr.
The majority of our costs are denominated in Euro. We purchase some
of our raw materials and pre-products in USD. A substantial part of our sales, in particular to
many Asian customers, is effected in USD or, if to Chinese customers via the Chinese
subsidiary CICM, in CNY. We compete with companies whose costs are incurred primarily in
currencies other than the Euro. Any strengthening of the Euro against those currencies increases
our sales prices translated into those currencies relative to our competitors, which could have
a negative impact on our competitiveness relative to such competitors unless we lower our sales prices. As a result, a strengthening of the Euro against those currencies could have a material
adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
We engage in limited hedging
activities (fair value hedging) with respect to currency fluctuations. Changes in exchange
rates on the translation of the earnings in foreign currencies into Euros are directly reflected in
our income statement and affect our business, financial condition and results of
operations.
In recent years, the market for backsheets was dominated by five
companies who accounted for 88% of total market sales in 2009 (Source: Frost & Sullivan).
Attractive growth rates have recently attracted market entrants, which are either small companies
satisfying local demand (predominantly in Asia) or large multinational chemical companies,
such as 3M, Mitsubishi and Honeywell. In the future suppliers to backsheet producers as well as
solar module manufacturers may also decide to enter the backsheet market or to produce backsheets.
Our backsheets must meet stringent quality requirements and may contain undetected defects, especially when first introduced. For example, our backsheets may contain
defects that remain undetected until after they are shipped or installed because we cannot
test for all possible scenarios. These defects could cause us to incur significant costs,
including costs to repair or replace products, divert the attention of our engineering personnel from product development efforts and significantly affect our customer relations and business
reputation. If we deliver defective products or if there is a perception that our products contain errors or defects, our credibility and the market acceptance could materially suffer thus
resulting in lower sales. If our customers do not detect defects before a solar module is
finally laminated, a defective backsheet, although representing only up to 7% of production
costs, may render the entire solar module unsuitable for use. In addition, we could be subject
to product liability claims and could experience increased costs and expenses related to
significant warranty claims, product liability claims or other legal judgments against us, or a widespread product recall by us or a solar module manufacturer.
Solar modules are
expected to have a useful life of 25 years and more. Our backsheets thus need to maintain their functionality for such period. We cannot ensure that our products, in particular those for which
no long term historical field data is available, will actually maintain their (full) functionality over their entire expected useful life. We may incur significant costs for either
legal or customer relationship reasons if our products should not meet warranted technical and
chemical parameters or perform as expected. In addition, this may divert the attention of our
engineering personnel from product development efforts and significantly negatively affect our customer relations and business reputation, and thereby our business, financial condition and
results of operation.
----------------------
Pricing trends
In 2009,
several factors caused a decline of overall solar module demand, inter alia, the cut to feed-in
tariffs in Spain, the negative impact of the global recession, and the lack of project
financing due to the credit crisis. Consequently, many solar module manufacturers reduced selling
prices of their modules significantly, which also impacted the backsheet market. Our average
selling price per square meter of backsheet sold decreased by approx. 10% in 2009 compared to
2008 and approx. 22% in 2010 compared to 2009. The decrease in the 2010 average selling price can
mainly be attributed to the increasing share of our more price competitive polyamidebased backsheets (“AAA” and “APA/FPA” product families) in our product portfolio. The “AAA” and
“APA/ FPA” product families accounted for 2% of revenues in 2009 but for 39% in 2010. The
average selling price of the “TPT” product family decreased by around 8% in 2010, while the average selling price of the “AAA” and “APA/FPA” product families remained largely stable.
We believe that prices for backsheets have been more resilient than for other components
of the solar module, due to the importance of backsheets to solar modules and the low cost of
backsheets relative to the total production cost of the solar module. However, as long as the pricing pressure continues to exist throughout the industry, we expect to be affected, though to
a lesser degree.
Based on the current trading and order backlog, we observe rather stable prices for our “TPT”, “AAA” and “APA/FPA” product families in the first months of 2011.
Furthermore, we will continue to work on improving functionalities of products and to add
additional value to products, e.g. backsheets for backside contacted solar modules, by which
we expect to mitigate the price pressure to a certain extent.
-------------------
Operational efficiency
In an environment of decreasing selling prices for backsheets
and high raw material costs, operational efficiency is critical. We are continuously improving
our production processes and machinery as well as improving raw material utilization in the
production process. Therefore, despite a decrease in the average price per square meter of
backsheet sold we were able to increase our EBIT Margin from 24.5% in 2009 to 28.5% in 2010.
Operational efficiency will continue to be an important factor going forward affecting our
results of operations.
Increase of value chain: Sales and distribution in China
Until the end of 2010, a material part of our products sold to Chinese customers was sold
via a related party as Chinese re-seller. Such revenues and EBIT-contribution are not reflected in the Pro Forma Financial Information or the IFRS Consolidated Financial Statements 2010 as such
re-seller was not part of the Group in 2010. Based on information of the former Chinese
re-seller provided to the Company, the Group’s consolidated revenues would have increased by
approx. €14.5 million and consolidated EBIT would have increased by approx. €13 million
if hypothetically consolidating the former Chinese re-seller into the Pro Forma Financial Information. From 2011 onwards, the Company will sell all products to Chinese costumers directly
or via its own Chinese subsidiary CICM and therefore all effects on such sales and respective
margins will be included in the consolidated financial statements going forward.
-----------------------
Supported by a continued positive market environment for the solar
sector as a whole and the increasing solar module production of Isovoltaic’s customer base in
particular in China, the Group has been able to strongly increase its revenues in the first two
months of the current financial year compared to the same months of the previous financial year.
This growth also reflects the continued success of the Group’s innovative polyamide based products
(“AAA” and “APA/FPA”) and a stable pricing environment year-to-date, both for “TPT” as well as
polyamide based products. Given the positive development since the beginning of the year until February
28, 2011, the current order backlog and the positive industry momentum, Isovoltaic believes to be
in a good position to show strong revenue growth rates for 2011 and to show at least margin levels
comparable to the financial year 2010, whereby the Group expects to benefit from the positive
impact from the new Chinese subsidiary as outlined above. The Group also believes to have a higher degree
of visibility on current year revenues compared to previous years, benefitting from 5 to 12 months
contracts that it has agreed with certain key customers. Based on its current trading and order
backlog, the Group expects that the polyamide based products (“AAA” and “APA/FPA”) will account for
a higher share of revenues in 2011 than in 2010. As supply bottlenecks observed in 2010 through
shortages of PVF for Isovoltaic’s “TPT” products have now been resolved to a significant extent through the new polyamide products, the Group’s growth will be partially driven by excess demand
observed in 2010 that can now be more efficiently addressed. Growth and margin expectations depend
on a sustained positive solar market environment in the second half of 2011.
For the
years beyond 2011, the Group believes, based on its competitive strengths as well as its exposure to the
fast growing Chinese market, to be in a good position to grow in line with the backsheet market,
with some upside potential from the introduction of new innovative product generations, such as
backsheets for backside contacted solar modules and flexible thin-film solar modules. The growth of
the backsheet market will be driven by solar module production and thus indirectly by newly
installed solar generation capacity. Margins are expected to benefit from a continued shift to
Isovoltaic’s more price competitive, but higher margin polyamide products. The development in the
years beyond 2011 is dependent on the further growth of solar module production, the subsidy
systems in key markets, sustained and effective market entry barriers as well as price developments.
----------------------------
Backsheets provide a vapor barrier
to protect the semiconductor circuit in the solar module from moisture and other environmental
influences such as weathering and ultraviolet light, physical protection of the wiring and other
sensitive components, electrical insulation and stability or flexibility (depending on the application)
to the module. Therefore, backsheets also need to be thermally conductive from the inside to the outside
as light not absorbed by the photovoltaic material would heat up the cell and reduce its
efficiency. These functions need to be rendered continuously and with stable performance over the
entire lifetime of the solar module, considering that module manufacturers typically provide 20
years and more warranty for their products. In order to fulfill the above mentioned requirements
backsheets need to consist, in contrary to encapsulants, of multiple layers of material adding up
to the required functionality.
Backsheets for crystalline silicon solar modules are
predominantly made of polymers while most thin-film modules, in particular the currently prevailing
cadmium telluride cell thin-film and architectural modules, use glass panels as backside cover.
According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2009 the total market size for backsheets was USD 493.2 million,
out of which revenues of USD 446 million (or 90.4%) were achieved with backsheets using polymers
and USD 47 million using glass.
Backsheets
Frost & Sullivan estimated that the
backsheets segment of the photovoltaic materials market will grow from USD 493 million in 2009 to
approx. USD 1,626 million by the end of 2013 at a compound annual growth rate of approx. 35%.
Although the overall market dynamics from 2009 to 2013 appear realistically estimated, the Company
believes that Frost & Sullivan in their study (published in July 2010) might not have sufficiently considered the significantly increased demand for solar modules in the second half of 2010 and thus
growth in the covered years might be allocated differently.
--------------------------------
Competition and Competitors
Based on
data from Frost & Sullivan, the Company is the market leader in the backsheet market with a market share of 35% in terms of revenues in 2009. The main competitors of the Company are Coveme, Madico,
Krempel and Toyo Aluminum who had a market share based on revenues in 2009 of 18%, 15%, 11% and 9%,
respectively (Source: Frost & Sullivan). Thus the top five market participants have a combined
market share of more than 85% (Source: Frost & Sullivan). In our opinion, other suppliers of
backsheets include a number of large multinationals such as 3M, Mitsubishi and Honeywell, who
address the backsheet market based on their competence in the production of polymer films, certain
regional companies such as Dunmore and Flexcon, as well as emerging players in China such as China
Lucky and Jolywood and other companies predominantly from Asia.
Among the larger
participants in the backsheet market, the Company believes it is the only market participant purely
focusing on backsheets while the other participants offer backsheets only as one segment of their polymer
or glass products.
Competitiveness is based on a number of factors, of which the
Company believes the following to be the most relevant: product performance and quality, customer
service and long term partnerships with customers for product development, proven operational track
record, price, continuous product innovations and timing delivery and reliable supply.