Die Analyse gibt es unter:

http://produkte.erstegroup.com/CorporateClients/de/ResearchCenter/Overview/Research_Detail/index.phtml?ID_ENTRY=1476

mE sehr lesenswert, die wichtigsten/interessantesten Punkte aus meiner Sicht:

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voestalpine continues to outperform its peers, not least due to significant market share gains with
automotive customers. The Steel division cancelled a planned 2-3 week Christmas shutdown and CEO
Eder expects it to run basically at 100% capacity utilization at least throughout the first half of calendar
year 2010.

Despite the eventual end of fleet renewal schemes, we do not expect lower demand from car producers,
as higher sales in 2009 were mostly used to clear inventories and because 85% of automotive sheet is
delivered to premium car producers, which profited only to a limited extent from the schemes.

The Steel division improved the most, as voestalpine has been gaining significant market share
with automotive customers and has been back at 100% capacity utilization since September –
clearly better than the competition (70-80% utilization). The upturn in the Special Steel division
is usually 2-3 months delayed, but first improvements from a dismal 1Q09/10 were realized and
the production trend during the quarter points upwards (48.6ttons in Sept., vs. 30.4ttons in July).

steel inventories at stockists still
exhibited a declining trend at least until September 2009, particularly for flat products (sheet and
plate), which voestalpine focuses on. Eurometal, the distributors’ association, said that stocks
were down to 44 days of sales in September, from 100 days in March. voestalpine group itself
has also not started to build inventories, which still declined EUR 175mn in the group last
quarter. We expect further rising steel production in October and November and a seasonal
decline in December. In 2010, steel production should grow at a double-digit pace (the World
Steel Association expects +12.4% for the EU 27), as stocks seem to be at roughly reasonable
levels now.

The earnings decline of the Special Steel division during the current downturn was much more
severe than anything the company experienced in the past. A number of reasons were
responsible for this harsh decline. Obviously, demand declined strongly from boom-year levels.
Secondly, the inventory destocking effect was even longer, due to the division’s dense
distribution network. According to German engineering federation VDMA, production in the first
nine months declined 25% (70% capacity utilization), which is less than half the production
decline at the Special Steel division of 55% in the same period. VDMA said that orders for tool
machines have been stabilizing since September at a low level. Thirdly, while base prices hardly
changed, the alloy surcharge declined dramatically, leading to windfall losses. However, we
believe in a strong turnaround already in 3Q09/10. As stocks in the whole value chain are
depleted, capacity utilization currently is back to about 70%, from 45% in the first six months.
Also, contrary to the previous quarters, the alloy surcharge has been increased for the current
quarter, which should lead to windfall gains instead. After an operating loss of EUR 33.2mn in
2Q09/10, we expect a sustainable return to positive EBIT already in the current quarter.

Despite the high net debt of EUR 3.6bn at the end of June 2009 (EUR 5.4bn, including EUR 1bn
hybrid bond and social capital), voestalpine has a comfortable redemption schedule compared to
its cash position (including marketable securities). In November, the company received a
EUR 428mn state-guaranteed loan at a very favorable interest rate of 4.5%. The loan is still
undrawn, but will be used to refinance more expensive debt. The company still excludes a
capital hike at anywhere near the current share price. voestalpine’s interest burden is actually
declining this year, due to lower interest on variable financing and no covenants.