Key Takeaways

Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30-2025/