Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1.
The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures.
The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access.
US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory.
Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Institute for the Study of War

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/