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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasGaslage Europa
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=238088&mesg_id=238226
238226, Gaslage Europa
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 11.7.22 13:38
The EU has been working to reduce dependency from Russia: the two main axes of the short-term response were (i) importing more LNG and (ii) filling up gas storage facilities to 80% by November 1st. LNG has covered ~80% of the reduction in Russian gas thus far – but to go any further more terminals would need to be built, which takes time. In the very short-term, the key imperative is thus filling up gas storage facilities with piped supply ahead of winter – precisely what Putin is trying to prevent with current supply reductions.

There are four Russian pipelines to the EU: Yamal is shut, the Ukrainian pipe is down to 40mcm, Turkstream less than that, so if NS1 doesn’t go back online we’d be looking at a 10-15% forced cut in gas consumption this autumn/winter. Such a sudden stop would have brutal consequences on European heavy industry, which is largely powered by gas, but even a progressive reduction in piped supply would be sufficient to tilt the Eurozone into a recession.

Expectation would be for Russia to continue to provide gas, but less than Europe needs, so as to keep prices high and unsettle public opinion. With limited spare capacity elsewhere, such a strategy would prevent EU countries from restocking ahead of winter, and would likely lead to enforced demand curbs later in the year.
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