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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasDie Permabullen wieder
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=223806&mesg_id=237503
237503, Die Permabullen wieder
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 14.6.22 13:43
We maintain our positive view. May is a template for the year, record dispersion provides opportunities. We remain positive on risky assets due to near record-low positioning, bearish sentiment, and our view that there will be no recession given supports from US consumers, global post-COVID reopening, and China stimulus and recovery. The war in Eastern Europe is a significant risk for the cycle but will likely converge to a settled solution in H2. We believe that markets will recover YTD losses and result in a broadly unchanged year. This is now an out of consensus “bullish” view, but this is not to say that we advocate indiscriminate buying. Currently, there is a tremendous dispersion of performance and valuation, and hence opportunities for outperformance. Some market segments (defensives, staples, etc.) are trading near all-time-high relative valuations, while other market segments (e.g., innovation, China ADRs, small caps, energy, biotech, etc.) are trading near all-time-low relative valuations. We think the most attractive investment opportunities are in these oversold sectors that provide asymmetric upside. Stocks that are trading near all-time high valuations are not a hedge for any scenario—if there is a recession, multiples will go down, and if there is no recession (which we think) there will be rotation out of these stocks into higher beta, smaller capitalization market segments in both growth and value. We think only a US recession would result in another leg lower.

JPMorgan
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