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Betreff des Themas Oil upside as surplus inventory runs out by Q3
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223992, Oil upside as surplus inventory runs out by Q3
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 13.1.21 15:53
Oil upside as surplus inventory runs out by Q3

• Global mobility is likely to remain on a weakening path for the time being as public health measures are tightened across the world. This includes stay-at-home orders in China's Hebei province and Canada, public health orders in some US states and counties, a regional widening Japan's state of emergency, and lockdown extensions in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.

• While measures of global oil demand remain below baseline across North America, Europe & Asia, consistent with OECD demand some -8% below 2019, this gap is likely to narrow towards -3% by Q4-21 after vaccination campaigns reach their goals.

• OPEC+ supply discipline is the linchpin to fundamental deficits, with cuts as of Nov-20 versus Mar-20 at -3.6 mmb/d for OPEC-10 and -1.9 mmb/d for OPEC+ members. This uneven burden will be exacerbated by Saudi Arabia's unilateral cut of a further -1 mmb/d in Feb/Mar. We remain alert to the possibility that different compliance rates may trigger objections over unfair treatment, expose strategic rifts and endanger the alliance.

• We see the proactive Saudi measure as providing a bulwark against impending demand losses for the balance of Q1, and keeping oil fundamentals in deficit for most of the year. In fact we think balances will be strong enough to allow OPEC to fully add back the remainder of its originally planned +2 mmb/d increment sometime in Q2. As a result we see OECD total liquids surplus inventories being consumed by Q3.

• An additional aid to fundamental strength is that US oil companies are likely to hold fast to newfound principles of capital discipline (reflecting an 'age of austerity') rather than adding back volume aggressively. In fact US tight oil output could theoretically decline this year even with the addition of 30 rigs/month.

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