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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasOur Global Equity strategists remain constructive
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=212537
212537, Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 25.11.19 16:16
Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive, believing that upside for stocks is still material, despite the frequent pushback that a lot is in the price, given an already strong equity run of 20%+ ytd. They see three potential drivers of further gains: 1) flows could come back to stocks. Fixed income returns are stalling, which could drive a rotation. 2) One should not dismiss the potential for further P/E rerating. At 16x, the global equity forward P/E multiple is just in line with the historical average of the past 30 years and contrasts to bond yields which are almost 300bp below their averages. At the past cycle peaks for stocks, ahead of the recessions, P/Es tended to be at a significant premium to 5-year rolling averages, of the order of 20%. Looking at the DY-BY gap at the past equity market peaks, it would typically be negative 130bp vs 5y moving averages. In contrast, current equity market dividend yield gap versus 10 year bond yield is outright positive. 3) Earnings momentum could turn. EPS revisions followed weak PMIs throughout the year, but this could be ending. A bounce in PMI’s should lead to an inflection in EPS momentum, in their view.

JPMorgan
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