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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasEurope Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=209238
209238, Europe Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 17.3.19 11:58
Europe Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside

From a domestic standpoint, the idiosyncratic issues that weighed on growth in 2H18 are now starting to fade. Consumer confidence is rising again in France as the gilets jaunes protests lose much of their intensity, and the German auto sector is showing signs of recovery, with both order intake and passenger car registrations rebounding strongly in the last couple of months. In addition, financial conditions across the euro area have eased dramatically over the past three months, wage growth continues to climb and our economists project that 2019 will bring the largest fiscal stimulus the region has seen since 2009.

Looking beyond domestic considerations, we believe that a fair share of Europe’s slowdown last year was ‘made in China’. The sharp drop in growth there weighed heavily on Europe, given its sensitivity to trade and exports, and we would caution investors not to underestimate linkages between the two regions. In a recent report, we highlighted that the China PMI new export orders series leads the euro area PMI closely by about three months, while China credit growth tends to be a solid predictor of Morgan Stanley’s European EPS growth lead indicator. Perhaps most striking of all, we found that European banks’ relative performance has correlated more closely with Chinese bond yields than European bond yields over the last five years! Hence our bullish call on China suggests a better outcome for Europe in the months ahead.

To sceptics on Europe, this may sound like a rather large dose of wishful thinking, but we’ve already seen better euro area retail sales and PMI data for February, implying that January marked the trough for data in this mini-cycle. Given the depth of poor investor sentiment towards the region, any confirmation that growth is rebounding is likely to have important and positive implications for asset prices. With CFTC data suggesting that positioning in EUR is close to a three-year low, we are bullish on EURUSD and target a rebound to 1.18 by the summer. With yield differentials close to record wides, we are underweight European government bonds relative to North American bonds and still see scope for Bund yields to reach 50bp by year-end. And with relative valuations close to an all-time low, we also prefer European equities to US equities. We note that post a trough in the euro area PMI, the average increase in European equities over the subsequent six months is 9%.
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