| Zurück zum vorherigen Thema
ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasGlobal Economy: Wind Chill Factors Abating
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=208660
208660, Global Economy: Wind Chill Factors Abating
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 03.2.19 15:15
A recent cold snap in the global economy: This week, a polar vortex hit the US, bringing unprecedented low temperatures. The cold winds reminded me of the chill that has blown through the global economy in recent months. This growth mini-cycle continues to unfold, with incoming data points suggesting that global growth has moved from the recent peak of 4%Y in 1Q18 to a below-trend pace of around 3.4%Y, which compares with the trough of 3.1%Y last seen in 4Q15 and 1Q16.

Nearing a mini-cycle trough: We think that the three most important factors impacting global growth are trade policy, China and the Fed. The outlook on these drivers – potential relief from trade tensions, China’s growth stabilisation from 2Q19 onwards and flexibility from the Fed – leads me to think that we could be nearing the trough in this mini-cycle. Consequently, we expect global growth to move back closer to trend in 2H19, led by emerging markets.

Morgan Stanley
0.01