208579, Was macht die Fed|
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 28.1.19 06:23
Although we’ve thought that clarity on US-China trade as the single most important policy change that could improve growth and earnings expectations, Fed policy becomes the more immediate focus given the Jan 30th FOMC meeting. That the Fed is pausing seems indubitable given Fedspeak since the December meeting; the questions are (1) how long will the pause last; (2) is the next rate move higher or lower; and (3) what's the balance sheet’s path. The JPM view is that this is a six month hiatus (half as long as the 2016 pause) before the Fed resumes tightening, since the US economy remains near full employment despite the Trump Administration's disruptive policies ex tax cuts. Market pricing is much more pessimistic in pricing a cut next year, because investors assign higher odds to some combination of slower growth, lower inflation or change in Fed reaction function. Next week the Fed will likely not issue the kind of calendar guidance that markets would welcome because data-dependence implies that the Fed has little confidence on how macro variables and Washington will evolve. Our economists just expect a modified statement that strengthens market conviction in a pause but doesn’t abandon the medium-term path of higher rates (see Feroli from Jan 25th). The word "patient", which former Chair Bernanke introduced in late 2014 to signal an institutional commitment to a slow-moving Fed, could move from sideline speech into the text. Balance sheet run-off could be mentioned in the press conference, but with no indication of a decision. But if the Fed ended this ambient tightening, some markets might retest their 2018 highs.