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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasNo need to worry
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=207901
207901, No need to worry
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 07.12.18 08:21
Das Wort in Gottes Ohr

No need to worry

The human mind feels most comfortable if there is a logic to what is going on in the world. This is also the case for investors in markets. We need a story, and markets get anxious if there are too many unquantifiable signals and no clear signs of a consistent narrative.

At the moment things are complicated. The US economic data is strong so that is good news. But global QE is ending, US Treasury supply is rising, and hedging costs are higher for foreigners buying assets in the US, and these forces are lifting vol and widening credit spreads. And we have a trade war that is coming and going. And oil prices are falling and the dollar is going up. And to top it all off, we have the unquantifiable force of populism rising everywhere. No wonder the market finds comfort in the yield curve as a signal about what is going on. It is an easy and simple story.

A better and more meaningful place to look for logic as an investor is the economic data. That is what the Fed does. The incoming data continues to be good, and the consensus continues to expect solid GDP and earnings growth for the coming six quarters (see also the Bloomberg screenshot in my daily note yesterday).

If you look at the economic data we see a clear story: We will not have a recession anytime soon.
 
Put differently, with falling oil prices and ADP today at 179k and the latest manufacturing ISM rising to 59.3 and non-manufacturing ISM rising to 60.7 where is this recession the market is so worried about?

Deutsche Bank
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