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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasInteressante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=206371
206371, Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 06.8.18 11:29
Our overall view is that higher trade barriers are clearly negative from a long-term microeconomic perspective because they make it harder for countries to exploit comparative advantage—i.e., make the things they are good at and import the rest. But from a short-term macroeconomic perspective, it is also true that making the things we are not so good at may require a significant amount of resources, including workers. Especially in trade deficit countries such as the US, the first-order impact on short-term growth and employment is thus not necessarily negative. Trade restrictions can still have adverse macroeconomic effects, but these generally come through secondary channels, such as higher economic policy uncertainty that weighs on investment, lower stock prices, or higher inflation and tighter monetary policy. Our long-term cross-country analysis confirms that trade barriers typically weigh on growth, but the effect is relatively small. So we still think that the trade war is only a moderate downside risk to the US macro outlook unless it escalates much further.
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