| Zurück zum vorherigen Thema
ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des ThemasRates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=203844&mesg_id=204926
204926, Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 16.4.18 12:57
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve and associated recession talk, but the shape of the curve is a distraction. The reality is that the Fed has an inflation target of 2% and core CPI inflation is 2.1% and according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model core PCE inflation in March will come in at 1.9%. Despite the strong uptrend in inflation, the consensus expects core PCE to hit 2% next quarter and then stay at 2.0% for the coming 12 months. In the history of economics, it has never happened in any country anywhere in the world that inflation has hit the target and stayed at exactly that level for 12 months. The risk of an inflation overshoot is rising, and as a result, the belly and the long end of the curve will move higher, finally recognizing that the Fed is right that higher rates are needed across the curve to cool down inflation and the economy.

Deutsche Bank

0