204179, US Inflation|
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 23.2.18 15:00
The US economics team published an update to DB’s analysis that looks at the parallels between the current period and the 1960s in the US. Similar to today, inflation was subdued for a protracted period during the first half of the 1960s even as the unemployment rate fell sharply. Inflation then jumped in 1966. Recent developments – most importantly a replay of the 1960s fiscal expansion – have increased the similarities with the 1960s episode. Their updated analysis suggests that while we are unlikely to see a spike in inflation as large as the 1960s, the risks around DB’s inflation view are likely titled to the upside. As such, we would not downplay the possibility that core inflation hits 2.5% or above in the coming years, exceeding the last cycle’s peak and rising to the highest level since the early 1990s.