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ForennameÖsterreichische Aktien im In- und Ausland
Betreff des Themasfed funds rate at 3.4%
URL des Themashttps://aktien-portal.at/forum/../forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=200504&mesg_id=204633
204633, fed funds rate at 3.4%
Eingetragen von Warren Buffett, 23.3.18 14:41
Based on our analysis, we see the structural factors depressing the participation rate largely offsetting the remaining margins of cyclical slack in the near-term, leaving the participation rate roughly unchanged through end-2019. Beyond 2019, we expect the structural forces to dominate, dragging the participation rate lower by about 0.25 percentage points per year.

Given our view on participation, the unemployment rate is likely to fall meaningfully below 4% in the coming quarters. We continue to see the unemployment rate falling to 3.4% this year and to 3.2% by end-2019.


Using a standard Taylor rule we show that unemployment rate projections based on participation rates near our expectations are consistent with about four rate hikes in both 2018 and 2019. This finding, combined with recent evidence that the inflation trend is firming, lead us to upgrade our fed funds rate expectations in 2019. We maintain our call for four rate hikes this year and now expect four next year instead of three, putting the terminal fed funds rate at 3.4%.

Deutsche Bank
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