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Ich habe hier vor ein paar Monaten, mehr aus dem Bauch heraus, die These aufgestellt, daß die globale Ölnachfrage ihren Höhepunkt überschritten hätte.

Im aktuellen BP Energy Outlook gehen zwei der drei Zukunftsszenarien davon aus, daß die Ölnachfrage nicht mehr auf Vor-Corona-Niveau steigen wird:

Falling demand for oil: the scenarios all see oil demand fall over the next 30 years: 10% lower ‎by 2050 in BAU, around 55% lower in Rapid and 80% lower in Net Zero. In BAU demand ‎plateaus in the early 2020s and in both Rapid and Net Zero oil demand never fully recovers ‎from the fall caused by Covid-19. The decline in oil demand is driven by the increasing ‎efficiency and electrification of road transportation. In all three scenarios the use of oil in ‎transport peaks in the mid- to late-2020s. The share of oil in meeting transport demand falls ‎from over 90% in 2018 to around 80% by 2050 in BAU, but to 40% in Rapid and to just 20% ‎in Net Zero.‎

Die Presseaussendung: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-energy-outlook -2020.html

Der ganze Energy Outlook: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economic s/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2020.pdf