Antworten zu diesem Thema
Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen eigene..., Rang: Warren Buffett(3283), 28.7.20 17:39
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Slow Sales In China Highlight Tesla's Demand Problem
16.5.19 20:08
1
Elon Musk to Tesla Employees: It's 'Hardcore' Belt-Tigh...
17.5.19 15:48
2
Tesla Shares Sink Below $200 Amid Trade Woes, Cautious ...
20.5.19 16:00
3
Tesla Bear-Case Price Is $10 at Morgan Stanley on Weak ...
21.5.19 10:40
4
RE: Tesla Bear-Case Price Is $10 at Morgan Stanley on W...
22.5.19 21:50
5
Musk exercising options
22.5.19 21:41
6
How Tesla's greedy bankers ripped Tesla’s face off
23.5.19 22:19
7
Musk Counters Tesla Delivery Doubt With Upbeat Internal...
24.5.19 08:49
8
RE: Musk Counters Tesla Delivery Doubt With Upbeat Inte...
24.5.19 08:54
9
SpaceX launches dozens of ‘Starlink’ internet satellite...
24.5.19 12:05
10
The Bursting of the Tesla Stock Bubble
24.5.19 14:02
11
Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the way do...
24.5.19 19:31
12
RE: Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the wa...
24.5.19 21:41
13
      RE: Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the wa...
25.5.19 09:56
14
      RE: Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the wa...
25.5.19 10:14
15
Whitney Tilson über Tesla
25.5.19 19:10
16
Verriß von Consumer Reports:
25.5.19 21:29
17
RE: Verriß von Consumer Reports:
25.5.19 21:43
18
      RE: Verriß von Consumer Reports:
26.5.19 18:18
19
In April, the Tesla Model 3 was replaced by the Renault...
29.5.19 16:04
20
RE: In April, the Tesla Model 3 was replaced by the Ren...
29.5.19 17:15
21
Musk Pushes Tesla Delivery Employees to `Catch Up' With...
29.5.19 23:30
22
Tesla-Aktie einfach bloß „missverstanden“?
03.6.19 09:50
23
RE: Tesla-Aktie einfach bloß „missverstanden“?
03.6.19 09:59
24
Tesla Begins Taking Orders on Its Cheaper China-Built M...
03.6.19 21:03
25
Verkauf von Emissionsrechten an GM und Chrysler
04.6.19 06:49
26
Tesla Stock Is Back Above $200
06.6.19 20:38
27
RTesla-Chef Musk prognostiziert Rekordquartal
12.6.19 09:46
28
SpaceX vs. Ariane
17.6.19 09:32
29
Goldman slashes Tesla price target by $42 on demand con...
20.6.19 18:00
30
Goldman slashes Tesla price target by $42 on demand con...
21.6.19 09:48
31
Jefferies senkt Ziel für Tesla auf 300 Dollar
21.6.19 10:18
32
SpaceX Attempts ‘Big Bang’ Military Mission With Massiv...
24.6.19 17:10
33
RE: SpaceX Attempts ‘Big Bang’ Military Mission With Ma...
25.6.19 10:11
34
Medien: Tesla verfehlt angekündigtes Rekordabsatzziel
26.6.19 09:45
35
Tesla verliert Fertigungschef Peter Hochholdinger
26.6.19 22:51
36
Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital has long been one of t...
01.7.19 21:46
37
Tesla posts record vehicle deliveries in the second qua...
02.7.19 22:28
38
RE: Tesla posts record vehicle deliveries in the second...
02.7.19 22:34
39
Shame of me
04.7.19 22:27
40
RE: Shame of me
05.7.19 11:28
41
Tesla gamed a subsidy program in Canada
05.7.19 16:32
42
Tesla will stop selling cars once full self-driving is ...
08.7.19 12:19
43
My analyst's bull case for Tesla
08.7.19 22:00
44
RE: My analyst's bull case for Tesla
09.7.19 06:20
45
      Responses to my analyst's bull case on TSLA
10.7.19 20:42
46
      Tesla (TSLA) is getting ready to ramp up production
10.7.19 20:49
47
Model 3 unzuverlässig
11.7.19 21:16
48
RE: Model 3 unzuverlässig
12.7.19 07:08
49
      ehrliche meinung oder gekaufte meinung?
14.7.19 20:25
50
Tesla: Einbruch in Norwegen?
16.7.19 09:50
51
RE: Tesla: Einbruch in Norwegen?
16.7.19 10:06
52
Tesla senkt Preise
16.7.19 13:19
53
Dirty Tesla: "15 Pounds" Of Dirt Trapped In Model 3
16.7.19 13:27
54
      Tesla Falls as Model 3 Price Cut Signals Need to Suppor...
16.7.19 15:01
55
      RE: Tesla Falls as Model 3 Price Cut Signals Need to Su...
16.7.19 15:17
56
      Tesla employees say they took shortcuts, worked through...
16.7.19 15:17
57
Tesla’s new V3 Supercharger can charge up to 1,500 elec...
19.7.19 19:57
58
Sehr interessanter Thread
22.7.19 21:16
59
Tesla’s Higher-End Sales Erode in Key Market Amid Model...
24.7.19 19:48
60
Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
24.7.19 22:53
61
      RE: Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
24.7.19 23:43
62
      RE: Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
25.7.19 05:43
63
      RE: Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
25.7.19 06:03
64
Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 09:42
65
RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 10:39
66
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 11:27
67
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 11:36
68
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 11:41
69
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 12:16
70
      Tesla Co-Founder Leaves CTO Job After $30 Million in Sh...
25.7.19 12:41
71
      RE: Tesla Co-Founder Leaves CTO Job After $30 Million i...
25.7.19 13:06
72
      RE: Tesla Co-Founder Leaves CTO Job After $30 Million i...
25.7.19 13:57
73
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 11:44
74
      RE: Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even
25.7.19 12:09
75
Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 17:45
76
RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 18:03
77
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 18:16
78
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 21:37
79
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 21:49
80
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 22:21
81
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 22:43
82
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
25.7.19 23:39
83
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
26.7.19 05:53
84
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
26.7.19 07:34
85
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
26.7.19 07:37
86
      RE: Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
26.7.19 06:17
87
Tesla Is a Streetcar Named Desire
26.7.19 09:40
88
Tesla Loses a Founder, and a Piece of Its Soul
26.7.19 17:02
89
Analyst Commentary
28.7.19 18:56
90
"Automobilindustrie schlittert immer tiefer in die Kris...
01.8.19 20:49
91
Tesla Needs Even More Than Ludicrous Speed
29.7.19 22:28
92
Tesla is 'spooling up production line rapidly' in Buffa...
30.7.19 20:40
93
Someone Tell the President: Tesla's Musk Promised China...
03.8.19 11:17
94
I met a Tesla bull (hedge fund) to debate the short cas...
03.8.19 11:21
95
      RE: I met a Tesla bull (hedge fund) to debate the short...
03.8.19 11:29
96
      battery pricing and quality testinggut analysiert
03.8.19 11:34
97
      Panasonic demanding battery price hike?
03.8.19 11:59
98
Elon Musk to launch China unit for tunneling company th...
05.8.19 14:50
99
Former NYSE Chief Warns of “False and Misleading Claims...
07.8.19 20:18
100
Wieder kostenloses Laden für Tesla-Käufer
12.8.19 20:06
101
Tesla's Model 3 Sales In Europe Declined In Q2, July, A...
12.8.19 21:06
102
Tesla Enters “Whistleblower Hell”
14.8.19 13:46
103
RE: Tesla Enters “Whistleblower Hell”
14.8.19 14:01
104
Tesla has a huge incentive to deploy self-driving tech....
15.8.19 20:14
105
TeslaQ
15.8.19 20:22
106
Tesla Service Is Criticized in BMW’s Backyard
16.8.19 09:00
107
Jaguar and Audi SUVs Fail to Dent Tesla’s Electric-Car ...
19.8.19 10:47
108
Wal-Mart verklagt Tesla
21.8.19 22:07
109
RE: Wal-Mart verklagt Tesla
21.8.19 22:19
110
David Einhorn demands Elon Musk resign over solar panel...
23.8.19 19:47
111
Last year Tesla initiated 'Project Titan' — a stealth n...
23.8.19 22:01
112
Tesla Wins China Tax Break, Sidestepping U.S. Trade Ten...
30.8.19 22:17
113
Tesla Versicherung
03.9.19 23:49
114
The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
04.9.19 21:24
115
RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 08:04
116
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 10:01
117
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 10:04
118
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 11:18
119
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycaninteressantinteressant
05.9.19 14:43
120
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 14:48
121
      RE: The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan
05.9.19 14:50
122
Bull-bear debate on the Porsche Taycan
06.9.19 22:24
123
August Numbers Are In For Tesla
06.9.19 22:32
124
How Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity
09.9.19 22:18
125
Analyst With $0 Price Target On Tesla Says Growth Story...
10.9.19 23:12
126
It’s Porsche Versus Tesla Facing Off in Germany’s Green...
13.9.19 22:27
127
Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors
15.9.19 21:33
128
Tesla Model 3 Is Now #1 Selling Car In The Netherlands
19.9.19 20:46
129
RE: Tesla Model 3 Is Now #1 Selling Car In The Netherla...
19.9.19 21:02
130
Tesla will in Osteuropa expandieren - Rechtlicher Ärger...
24.9.19 11:15
131
Tesla-Chef Musk werden Familiy-Business und Bereicherun...
24.9.19 20:03
132
RE: Tesla-Chef Musk werden Familiy-Business und Bereich...
24.9.19 20:48
133
Für das „Wohl der Welt“ springt Elon Musk jetzt dem VW-...
25.9.19 21:19
134
Tesla Surges After Musk Tells Staff 100,000 Deliveries ...
26.9.19 21:49
135
Tesla's Model 3 Retains Top Spot in Norway in Q3
01.10.19 21:29
136
Smart Summon
01.10.19 23:34
137
Tesla Sets Deliveries Record While Falling Short of Elo...
03.10.19 01:12
138
RE: Tesla Sets Deliveries Record While Falling Short of...
03.10.19 08:33
139
      Tesla: Bank of America skeptisch
03.10.19 18:35
140
Tesla Battery Flaw Cover-Up Claim to Be Evaluated by NH...
04.10.19 22:12
141
‘’Tesla May Lose 80% of Its Value’’
07.10.19 20:54
142
RE: ‘’Tesla May Lose 80% of Its Value’’
07.10.19 20:56
143
Tesla's 'Smart Summon' feature is glitchy and works int...
09.10.19 15:31
144
Tesla darf mit Produktion in China starten
17.10.19 21:34
145
Tesla's Nuerburgring run revs up debate over speed reco...
18.10.19 15:04
146
Musk ist nicht liquide
22.10.19 13:29
147
RE: Musk ist nicht liquidewitzig
22.10.19 13:30
148
Cathie Wood dumping TSLA
23.10.19 14:41
149
RE: Cathie Wood dumping TSLA
26.10.19 18:53
150
      Q3 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
26.10.19 23:15
151
      An outstanding analysis by Nathan Weiss of Weiss, Harri...
27.10.19 10:58
152
      Why I Will Never Short Tesla
27.10.19 11:01
153
      My thoughts on Tesla
27.10.19 11:21
154
      RE: My thoughts on Tesla
28.10.19 21:19
155
Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm on Musk
23.10.19 19:13
156
Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company returns ...
24.10.19 05:48
157
      RE: Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company retu...
24.10.19 05:56
158
      RE: Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company retu...
24.10.19 06:12
159
      RE: Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company retu...gut analysiert
24.10.19 08:23
160
      RE: Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company retu...
24.10.19 08:48
161
      Tesla’s Surprise Looks Strangely Familiar
24.10.19 12:10
162
Tesla Is No Niche Automaker Anymore, Volkswagen’s CEO S...
25.10.19 13:31
163
Tesla Cashflow
26.10.19 18:39
164
RE: Tesla Cashflow
26.10.19 18:41
165
      The Elon Musk SolarCity bailout fraud case deposition ...
26.10.19 18:50
166
Tesla Falls as Roth Calls Margins ‘Unsustainable,’ Cuts...
29.10.19 15:29
167
US-Verkäufe von Tesla-Elektroautos brachen um 40 Prozen...
29.10.19 21:07
168
Tesla’s Hell Moves From the Production Line to the Repa...
31.10.19 12:44
169
Musk/Solar City lawsuit
31.10.19 22:19
170
How Weak Is Tesla Model 3 Demand In The US?
04.11.19 14:15
171
Glenn Tongue’s take on Q3 earnings
04.11.19 20:29
172
Stanphyl Capital ’s take on Q3 earnings
04.11.19 20:35
173
RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
05.11.19 23:30
174
David Einhorn mit bösem Kommentar zu Tesla
06.11.19 17:58
175
Tesla to unveil electric pickup 'cybertruck' on Novembe...
06.11.19 21:28
176
Elon Musk Burns Short Seller David Einhorn on Twitter
08.11.19 14:18
177
RE: Elon Musk Burns Short Seller David Einhorn on Twitt...gut analysiert
08.11.19 18:54
178
      Einhorn kontert
08.11.19 22:22
179
Musk Donates 1 Million Trees to Global Reforestation Ca...
09.11.19 18:37
180
Tesla Wins Positive Outlook From S&P as Cash Flow Takes...
09.11.19 18:57
181
RE: Musk Donates 1 Million Trees to Global Reforestatio...
10.11.19 11:47
182
Tesla's Buffalo plant gets $884 million write-down
10.11.19 21:44
183
Tesla Flaunts First China-Built Cars as Start of Sales ...
11.11.19 10:12
184
Musk ist kein netter Kerl:
12.11.19 22:10
185
RE: Musk ist kein netter Kerl:
12.11.19 22:48
186
      RE: Musk ist kein netter Kerl:
13.11.19 08:16
187
      RE: Musk ist kein netter Kerl:
13.11.19 08:42
188
      RE: Musk ist kein netter Kerl:
13.11.19 08:46
189
      Tesla baut europäische Fabrik bei Berlin
13.11.19 08:42
190
      udenhöffer: Batterie-Förderung nach Tesla-Ankündigung ü...
13.11.19 09:48
191
      RE: Tesla baut europäische Fabrik bei Berlin
13.11.19 09:53
192
      RE: Tesla baut europäische Fabrik bei Berlin
14.11.19 11:50
193
E-Autowracks: Brandgefährlicher Sondermüll
13.11.19 12:05
194
Worst Case Scenario For Older Teslas Coming To Fruition...
13.11.19 13:24
195
Teslas Model 3 und Model S sind "durchschnittlich zuver...
17.11.19 10:51
196
Tesla plant bis vier Milliarden Euro für deutsche Gigaf...
17.11.19 20:26
197
RE: Tesla plant bis vier Milliarden Euro für deutsche G...
18.11.19 20:14
198
      Tesla’s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest
18.11.19 21:18
199
      Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
18.11.19 21:38
200
      Elon Musk’s Solar Deal Has Become the Top Threat to Tes...
18.11.19 22:14
201
      RE: Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
18.11.19 22:21
202
      RE: Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
19.11.19 07:38
203
      RE: Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
19.11.19 08:00
204
      RE: Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
20.11.19 19:37
205
      RE: Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot
20.11.19 20:25
206
Cybertruck: Form von neuem Tesla-Pickup sorgt für Aufse...
22.11.19 08:38
207
Knapp 150.000 Bestellungen für Teslas neuen Cybertruck
24.11.19 13:31
208
Warum die Scheiben des Tesla-Cybertrucks brachen
26.11.19 08:22
209
Was machen Musk (Tesla) und Diess (VW) wenn Sie sich tr...
26.11.19 13:47
210
Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in Wien...
27.11.19 18:06
211
RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...gut analysiert
27.11.19 19:19
212
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
27.11.19 22:03
213
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
27.11.19 22:03
214
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 08:36
215
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 09:20
216
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 08:56
217
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 09:23
218
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 10:32
219
      RE: Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in ...
28.11.19 13:24
220
Elon Musk nach Pädophilie-Stichelei auf Twitter freiges...
07.12.19 13:59
221
Tesla will in Brandenburg 500.000 E-Autos im Jahr bauen
11.12.19 19:40
222
Range Tesla vs. Comp
13.12.19 22:35
223
RE: Range Tesla vs. Comp
13.12.19 22:48
224
      RE: Range Tesla vs. Comp
14.12.19 21:10
225
      RE: Range Tesla vs. Comp
15.12.19 09:38
226
      RE: Range Tesla vs. Comp
15.12.19 10:23
227
Tesla steigt stetig, schon über 400
19.12.19 19:54
228
RE: Tesla steigt stetig, schon über 400
20.12.19 08:09
229
      RE: Tesla steigt stetig, schon über 400
27.12.19 17:34
230
Tesla Hits China Milestones With Tax Break, First Local...
27.12.19 16:18
231
Eindrücke eines Tesla-Fahrers
27.12.19 17:35
232
Tesla Inc. tumbled 4.9%, after analysts at Cowen said ...
30.12.19 16:06
233
Tesla Cuts the Starting Price for Model 3 by 9% in Chin...
03.1.20 08:59
234
Dank starkem Endspurt schafft Tesla sein Jahresziel
03.1.20 19:19
235
Musk’s moment of truth arrives as Made-in-China Teslas ...
05.1.20 14:37
236
RE: Musk’s moment of truth arrives as Made-in-China Tes...
05.1.20 20:22
237
      vom milliardär zum tellerwäscher
08.1.20 19:34
238
      RE: vom milliardär zum tellerwäscher
08.1.20 19:51
239
      RE: vom milliardär zum tellerwäscher
08.1.20 20:37
240
Fortsetzung aus anderem Thread
09.1.20 08:36
241
RE: Fortsetzung aus anderem Thread
09.1.20 08:43
242
RE: Fortsetzung aus anderem Thread
11.1.20 22:21
243
An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas still go...
13.1.20 09:21
244
RE: An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas stil...interessant
13.1.20 09:26
245
      RE: An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas stil...gut analysiert
13.1.20 09:46
246
      RE: An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas stil...gut analysiert
13.1.20 11:35
247
      RE: An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas stil...
13.1.20 19:33
248
esla: 4 Questions Rival Automakers Are Asking About the...
14.1.20 22:26
249
RE: esla: 4 Questions Rival Automakers Are Asking About...
14.1.20 22:37
250
      Larry Ellison’s $1 Billion Tesla Bet Is Paying Off Aft...
14.1.20 22:39
251
Mit Tesla erstmals E-Auto unter den Top-5 in der Schwei...
15.1.20 18:32
252
RE: Mit Tesla erstmals E-Auto unter den Top-5 in der Sc...
15.1.20 19:02
253
Tesla Wraps Up Big Week After Hitting All-Time High
19.1.20 21:06
254
There is no “unintended acceleration” in Tesla vehicles
21.1.20 22:46
255
My analyst Kevin responds
21.1.20 22:55
256
RE: My analyst Kevin responds
21.1.20 23:05
257
Teslas Börsenwert übersteigt erstmals 100 Mrd. Dollar
22.1.20 18:06
258
The Tesla Skeptics Who Bet Against Elon Musk
23.1.20 21:04
259
US 2019 market share: Tesla lost market share to Cadill...
23.1.20 21:11
260
Tesla 4Q earnings top expectations, sees 500K+ deliveri...
29.1.20 22:41
261
RE: Tesla 4Q earnings top expectations, sees 500K+ deli...
30.1.20 00:53
262
      RE: Tesla 4Q earnings top expectations, sees 500K+ deli...
30.1.20 06:02
263
Tesla sichert sich Verträge für Batterien aus Südkorea ...
30.1.20 21:39
264
My latest thoughts on Tesla
30.1.20 21:51
265
      RE: My latest thoughts on Tesla
30.1.20 21:53
266
      RE: My latest thoughts on Tesla
30.1.20 21:59
267
Hilarious
02.2.20 17:37
268
CATL Confirms Battery Supply Agreement With Tesla In Ch...
03.2.20 09:09
269
Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish Pri...
03.2.20 19:28
270
RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 05:31
271
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 05:57
272
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 06:14
273
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 13:21
274
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 13:53
275
      Tesla Stock Jumped 20%. It Makes No Sense.
04.2.20 13:58
276
      A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tesla B...
04.2.20 14:31
277
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...
04.2.20 14:40
278
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...
04.2.20 14:44
279
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...
04.2.20 15:16
280
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...
04.2.20 15:24
281
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...
04.2.20 15:30
282
      RE: A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tes...interessant
04.2.20 15:39
283
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 14:20
284
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 16:12
285
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 16:38
286
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 16:38
287
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 18:31
288
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
04.2.20 20:34
289
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
05.2.20 20:18
290
      Tesla Gross Margin
05.2.20 20:35
291
      RE: Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish...
12.2.20 23:50
292
Tesla in den S&P 500
11.2.20 11:23
293
Tesla Prognose
12.2.20 15:08
294
Porsche Taycan Turbo S vs. Tesla Model S Performance: E...
12.2.20 20:21
295
Tesla ruft 15.000 Fahrzeuge zurück
13.2.20 16:09
296
Kapitalerhöhung
13.2.20 21:36
297
      Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Report
14.2.20 05:50
298
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 05:57
299
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 08:46
300
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 09:19
301
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 11:06
302
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 11:28
303
      Tesla's Stock Sale Is So Right But Feels So Wrong
14.2.20 11:45
304
      RE: Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Re...
14.2.20 12:35
305
VW vs. Tesla
16.2.20 10:29
306
RE: VW vs. Tesla
16.2.20 10:32
307
Musk Calls Gates Underwhelming After Billionaire Buys a...
18.2.20 10:55
308
Tesla Bear Morgan Stanley Raises Its Bull Case to $1,20...
18.2.20 11:56
309
RE: Tesla Bear Morgan Stanley Raises Its Bull Case to $...
18.2.20 12:20
310
      RE: Tesla Bear Morgan Stanley Raises Its Bull Case to $...interessant
18.2.20 15:34
311
Tesla’s stock spikes above $850 after Bernstein sees no...
18.2.20 19:41
312
Tesla verhandelt offenbar über kobaltfreie Akkus für E-...
18.2.20 21:07
313
Zerlegtes Tesla Model 3 schockt VW und Toyota
21.2.20 08:09
314
Tesla Rival Sets Out to Banish 160-Year-Old Lead Tech F...
23.2.20 13:49
315
Tesla: Horror-Absatzzahlen?
25.2.20 21:34
316
Tesla und Panasonic: Szenen einer kriselnden Partnersch...
26.2.20 19:58
317
Tesla und Corona
01.3.20 19:38
318
Millionstes Elektroauto bei Tesla produziert
10.3.20 22:03
319
Tesla scouting central U.S. for new factory, Musk says
11.3.20 17:04
320
RE: Tesla scouting central U.S. for new factory, Musk s...
17.3.20 10:16
321
      RE: Tesla scouting central U.S. for new factory, Musk s...
17.3.20 10:23
322
Tesla schwächelt
01.4.20 09:36
323
RE: Tesla schwächelt
01.4.20 09:38
324
Tesla delivers 88,400 electric vehicles, beating expect...
02.4.20 22:51
325
Tesla Is Nearing Debut of Longer Range China-Made Model...
07.4.20 08:57
326
Tesla kündigt Zwangsurlaub und Lohnkürzungen an
08.4.20 12:49
327
RE: Tesla kündigt Zwangsurlaub und Lohnkürzungen an
08.4.20 13:09
328
Tesla Prices Longer-Range Model 3 to Attract More China...
10.4.20 09:45
329
Credit Suisse hebt Tesla auf 'Neutral' und Ziel auf 580...
14.4.20 09:13
330
RE: Credit Suisse hebt Tesla auf 'Neutral' und Ziel auf...
14.4.20 09:21
331
Tesla an Börse wertvoller als BMW, Daimler und VW zusam...
27.4.20 20:08
332
Elon Musk guards Tesla board from legal fees after insu...
28.4.20 17:03
333
Tesla überrascht mit weiterem Quartalsgewinn
30.4.20 08:49
334
Musk and Tesla Bulls Are So Over This Covid Panic
30.4.20 13:27
335
RE: Tesla überrascht mit weiterem Quartalsgewinn
02.5.20 18:09
336
Musk twitterte von "zu hohem Kurs" – Tesla-Aktie fiel u...
01.5.20 19:54
337
RE: Musk twitterte von
01.5.20 19:57
338
Tesla skimps on warranty costs to inflate its profits, ...
02.5.20 18:25
339
na bumm
05.5.20 12:39
340
      RE: na bumm
05.5.20 12:47
341
Musk Threatens to Pull Tesla Out of California Over Shu...
09.5.20 22:07
342
RE: Musk Threatens to Pull Tesla Out of California Over...
09.5.20 22:18
343
Tesla startet Produktion entgegen Behördenanweisung
12.5.20 08:47
344
No one thought SpaceX would beat Boeing
23.5.20 09:05
345
Erster bemannter Flug zu ISS mit SpaceX
27.5.20 14:04
346
Takeoff jetzt um 22:33
27.5.20 22:04
347
RE: Takeoff jetzt um 22:33
27.5.20 22:18
348
      RE: Takeoff jetzt um 21:20
30.5.20 20:56
349
      SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
31.5.20 17:31
350
      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
31.5.20 21:21
351
      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 10:19
352
      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 10:36
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      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 11:18
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      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 17:57
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      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 19:05
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      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
01.6.20 21:02
357
      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
02.6.20 00:20
358
      RE: SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
02.6.20 20:10
359
775 Mio. Dollar für Tesla-Chef Musk
29.5.20 11:44
360
Tesla vergünstigt Elektroautos deutlich – auch in Öster...
29.5.20 22:39
361
Reichweitentest
01.6.20 22:48
362
CR finds that the new automatic lane-changing feature i...
01.6.20 22:58
363
RE: Reichweitentest
02.6.20 00:14
364
Über 1000$
10.6.20 18:34
365
Über 1000$ - Nur mehr knapp hinter Toyota
11.6.20 11:24
366
Tesla plant neue Fabrik
25.6.20 20:06
367
RE: Tesla plant neue Fabrik
25.6.20 20:25
368
Tesla Shares Top $1,000 Again on Musk’s Break-Even Opti...
30.6.20 19:37
369
Tesla wertvollster Autobauer der Welt
01.7.20 19:49
370
Tesla plant für neue Fabrik mit Kosten von rund einer M...
02.7.20 19:27
371
Tesla wieder +10%
06.7.20 19:25
372
RE: Tesla wieder +10%
06.7.20 19:48
373
      RE: Tesla wieder +10%
06.7.20 21:45
374
      Tesla ist jetzt selbst Short-Sellerwitzig
07.7.20 18:06
375
      RE: Tesla ist jetzt selbst Short-Seller
10.7.20 03:51
376
      RE: Tesla ist jetzt selbst Short-Seller
10.7.20 07:59
377
      RE: Tesla ist jetzt selbst Short-Sellerinteressantinteressant
10.7.20 08:40
378
Musk promises that Tesla will have “the basic functiona...
09.7.20 21:05
379
RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
10.7.20 21:51
380
RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...interessant
10.7.20 21:58
381
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
11.7.20 00:37
382
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
11.7.20 01:06
383
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
11.7.20 07:31
384
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
11.7.20 21:06
385
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
12.7.20 01:29
386
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
12.7.20 08:16
387
      RE: Das Phänomen Tesla und Elon Musk verdienen einen ei...
12.7.20 16:51
388
Elon Musk Soars Past Warren Buffett on Billionaires Ran...
11.7.20 17:58
389
Tesla Shaves $3,000 Off Model Y Price Months After Sale...
12.7.20 12:43
390
Elon Musk's Big Tech Bubble Ride Isn't Forever
13.7.20 12:55
391
Tesla +12%
13.7.20 18:15
392
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 21:57
393
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 22:22
394
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 22:23
395
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 22:36
396
      RE: Tesla +12%
14.7.20 00:38
397
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 22:33
398
      RE: Tesla +12%
14.7.20 00:13
399
      RE: Tesla +12%
13.7.20 22:51
400
Schwindelt Elon Musk bei Produktionskapazität und Nachf...interessant
16.7.20 13:28
401
Zulassungen in Kalifornien brechen wegen Corona-Krise e...
16.7.20 13:28
402
      Flatex erhört Overnight Marginparameter
16.7.20 13:40
403
Die freiwillige Geiselhaft
17.7.20 14:31
404
Tail wags dog
17.7.20 15:17
405
Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quartals...
18.7.20 02:27
406
RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
19.7.20 17:08
407
RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
19.7.20 19:27
408
RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
24.7.20 11:01
409
RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 19:45
410
      RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 20:01
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      RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 20:21
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      RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 20:34
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      RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 20:49
414
      RE: Gespannter Waffenstillstand vor Verkündung der Quar...
22.7.20 21:04
415
Musk hat nun Anspruch auf 2,1 Milliarden Dollar
22.7.20 09:15
416
Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash despite...interessant
22.7.20 22:22
417
RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 00:40
418
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 01:56
419
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 06:17
420
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:06
421
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:11
422
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:16
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      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:17
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      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:12
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      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 09:13
426
      RE: Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash des...
23.7.20 19:52
427
Gemeinschaftsprojekte in der Vergangenheit waren für To...
23.7.20 10:18
428
Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 10:33
429
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 12:04
430
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 12:50
431
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 14:17
432
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 14:32
433
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 15:40
434
      RE: Tesla Norwegen
23.7.20 16:28
435
      RE: Tesla Norwegenwitzig
23.7.20 19:59
436
Tesla's $200 Billion Question Remains Unansweredinteressant
23.7.20 12:48
437
RE: Tesla's $200 Billion Question Remains Unanswered
23.7.20 14:35
438
      RE: Tesla's $200 Billion Question Remains Unanswered
23.7.20 14:45
439
      RE: Tesla's $200 Billion Question Remains Unanswered
23.7.20 15:01
440
The Electric Car Atop Europe’s Sales Charts Isn’t a Tes...interessant
24.7.20 11:15
441
RE: The Electric Car Atop Europe’s Sales Charts Isn’t a...
24.7.20 11:54
442
      RE: The Electric Car Atop Europe’s Sales Charts Isn’t a...
24.7.20 13:21
443
Elon Musk’s SpaceX in Talks to Raise Funds at $44 Billi...
24.7.20 14:13
444
Tesla plant eigene Batterieproduktion für Fabrik in Deu...
25.7.20 20:38
445
RE: Tesla plant eigene Batterieproduktion für Fabrik in...
25.7.20 20:41
446
Musk und Marxwitzig
28.7.20 17:39
447

Slow Sales In China Highlight Tesla's Demand Problem

...

The Model 3 does not show up on Gasgoo’s list of the top-ten selling NEVs in China in April. The number ten model on that list, JAC’s iEV6E, sold 3,002 units for the month of April. So, the only conclusion I can draw (I have reached out to Tesla management for comment; they have yet to respond) is that Tesla did not even sell 3,000 Model 3s in China in April.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/05/15/slow-sales-in-china-highlight-teslas-d emand-problem/#4c7127a146ed

  

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Elon Musk to Tesla Employees: It's 'Hardcore' Belt-Tightening Time

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and new Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn will personally review all expenses going forward in a 'hardcore' attempt to cut costs following massive losses during the last quarter.

...

In an email sent to all Tesla employees and obtained by all-things-Tesla and EV news website Electrek, Musk noted that it was "extremely important" to "examine every expenditure at Tesla, no matter how small."

Even with $2.2 billion in cash on its books at the end of last quarter, Musk said that wouldn't last that long with the company's burn rate: "This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!"

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/musk-to-tesla-employees-it-is-hardcore-belt-ti ghtening-time-14963523

  

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Tesla Shares Sink Below $200 Amid Trade Woes, Cautious Analysts

In a note Sunday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the electric-car maker faced a “Kilimanjaro-like uphill climb” to hit profitability goals in the second half of the year, while Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill said the latest report from the National Transportation Safety Board on a fatal Tesla crash “could cast doubt on Tesla’s self-driving capabilities, which have been highly touted by Mr. Musk.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/tesla-shares-sink-below-200-amid-trade -woes-cautious-analysts

  

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Tesla Bear-Case Price Is $10 at Morgan Stanley on Weak Car Sales

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla’s bear-case share-price estimate slashed to $10 from $97 by Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Jonas, citing increased debt load, increasing dependence on China and potential for further negative news.
The broker rates Tesla equal-weight, with $230 price target
Analysts write in a note that Tesla’s stock price has been supported by demand for co.’s cars, cash flow generation, access to capital markets, and 2019’s “sharp deceleration” in sales has reduced self-funding ability
“Demand is at the heart of the problem,” as Tesla may be offering too many battery-powered sedans outside China; generating new demand will require expanding in China domestic market, offering lower-priced SUV and targeting logistics and mobility fleets
Executive departures, price cuts, “extraordinary” cost reduction efforts “add to the narrative of a company facing real potential stress”

  

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>Tesla Bear-Case Price Is $10 at Morgan Stanley on Weak Car
>Sales


Tesla is down another $10 today, in part I think due to the conference call from 11am-noon this morning by the Morgan Stanley analysts, which I listened to.

In short: they could hardly have been more negative – and I thought I was bearish! I had to keep reminding myself that they were one of the banks pumping this awful deal less than three weeks ago…

  

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Die Shorts sind aber auch sehr "eager": Jetzt hat er mal ausgeübt, ev. Verkaufsmeldung muß erst kommen:


Just when you think Tesla’s news flow couldn’t be any more surprising, an unexpected regulatory filing pops up. And it’s a doozy.


Musk just exercised 175k shares from options that don’t expire till 2022 (see link to the Form 4 below).

There is one and only one reason to do this: he needs the cash - likely because he's being hit with a margin call...

http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20190521/ARA2T22CZ22XR222222O22Z2M2K2PZ2262B2/

  

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My daily e-mail on May 6, Is Tesla desperate?; Taking a closer look at the deal, was dedicated entirely to Glenn’s trenchant analysis of the company’s convertible bond and stock offering. Glenn concluded that Tesla raised much-needed capital but paid a heavy price.



The underwriters made a fortune, largely at the expense of the company, by taking advantage of Tesla’s dire situation (demand has collapsed and it’s hemorrhaging cash, as I’ve covered extensively in previous e-mails) and its woefully inexperienced 34-year-old CFO, Zach Kirkhorn, whose background includes Harvard Business School and McKinsey – what could be worse??? (As an alum of HBS and another elite consulting firm, Boston Consulting Group, I speak from experience!).



As bad as we thought the deal was for Tesla at the time, we now believe that it was even worse than we thought. The structure of the capital raise and the greed of the underwriters has likely exacerbated the plunge in Tesla’s stock since the offering three weeks ago.



As background, at that time the company issued $1.6 billion in convertible bonds and $750 million in stock, with a “green shoe” option to the underwriters to buy 15% more of each.



As part of the deal, the company also engaged in a hedging transaction with the underwriters that had two legs: 1) Tesla purchased a call struck at the conversion price of $309.83 per share for $413.8 million, which would have the effect of reducing the dilution from the offering if the convertible bonds are converted into stock in the future; and 2) Tesla received $151.7 million to sell a call option struck at $607.50 per share.



These two calls, when taken together, are called a call spread (long the $309.83 call and short the $607.50 call). It was packaged by the underwriters using the stock that Tesla issued along with the convertible bonds. They hedged their exposure by buying the stock heavily during the day or two after the deal priced, which no doubt contributed to its spike after the deal was announced (also contributing were Musk’s preposterous claims that Tesla would achieve Level 5 – no steering wheel necessary – autonomous driving by the end of this year and have a fleet of a million Tesla robotaxis within 15 months).



Banks and brokers make much more money buying and selling options than more traditional securities like converts and common stock, so we have no doubt that Tesla paid a huge price for the call spreads that were part of the financing (they love dealing with rookie CFOs). In fact, our guess is that the bankers probably made more money selling the call spreads to Tesla than they made underwriting the two securities. Therefore, it was no surprise to us to see them exercise the full green shoe, as this would maximize the amount of the call spread – and therefore their profits on it.



Ah, but that wasn’t enough for these greedy pigs…



As background: a major purpose of any green shoe is to provide extra stock so the underwriters can support the deal and stabilize the stock if necessary.



But that can present a dilemma for the bankers: what if they exercise the green shoe (i.e., buy the securities) and then get stuck with them if their value plunges?



There’s an easy solution, however – as long as the underwriters don’t care about their client’s stock and the investors to whom they just sold the deal: just exercise the green shoe soon after the deal and then quickly dump the securities.



Sure enough, that appears to be what happened. Even though the green shoe is a 30-day option, Tesla’s underwriters decided to exercise it early: the 8-k announcing it was filed a mere five days after the pricing, and we have little doubt that they quickly sold.



Thus, when the stock fell through the deal price and kept falling, and falling, and falling… the banks weren’t there to support it.



But wait, it gets worse!



The banks are the counterparty to the call spreads they sold Tesla. They don’t want any risk, so they hedge it by buying the stock (as noted above). But as the stock falls, they need fewer shares as a hedge, so they become sellers of the stock – which, of course, further contributes to its decline. The more it falls, the more they sell…



This is what happens when you have seasoned professionals from the biggest banks in the world on one side of the table, and a desperate company with a clueless CEO and CFO on the other side.



In Wall Street terms, they got their faces ripped off. And Tesla shareholders have paid a heavy price… and will continue to do so we confidently predict…

  

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Musk Counters Tesla Delivery Doubt With Upbeat Internal Memo


(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. shares swung wildly Thursday after an upbeat email that Elon Musk sent to employees countered days of escalating doubt that the company will hit its vehicle delivery targets.

The chief executive officer wrote that Tesla has a “good chance” in the second quarter of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries achieved in the last three months of 2018. In the email, which first surfaced on a Chinese social media forum, Musk also said the company has received more than 50,000 net new orders this quarter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-rallies-musk-upbeat-email-141242065.html

  

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>The chief executive officer wrote that Tesla has a “good
>chance” in the second quarter of exceeding the record 90,700
>deliveries achieved in the last three months of 2018. In the
>email, which first surfaced on a Chinese social media forum,
>Musk also said the company has received more than 50,000 net
>new orders this quarter.


Die Aktie hat gestern darauf positiv reagiert aber mE ist das ja ein Desaster. Wenn 50k pro Quartal die steady state run rate ist?

  

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SpaceX launches dozens of ‘Starlink’ internet satellites into space — its heaviest payload ever

SpaceX sent a packed rocket of 60 satellites into space on Thursday morning, in a key first mission toward building the company’s own high-speed internet network.

The launch was “the heaviest payload a Falcon 9 has ever launched, or Falcon Heavy, for that matter,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk told reporters before the mission. All in all, the rocket lifted more than 37,000 pounds of mass, he said.

Called “Starlink,” the satellites represent the company’s ambitious plan to build an interconnected satellite network to beam high-speed internet to anywhere on the planet. It’s how Musk believes SpaceX will be able to generate enough revenue to realize its even more ambitious goals of sending astronauts to Mars, and to establish the first human colony on the Red Planet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/spacex-starlink-launch-60-internet-satellites-on-heaviest -mission.html

  

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Desperate.

Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the way down to toilet paper

Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that teams at several Tesla facilities are going to some extremes in attempts to cut costs, including skipping on ordering office supplies – even toilet paper.

A source even said that some employees are bringing toilet paper from home to the office in an attempt to reduce their overhead.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/24/tesla-cost-cutting-effort-toilet-paper/

  

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>Desperate.
>
>Tesla’s new cost cutting-effort is going all the way down to
>toilet paper
>
>Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that teams at
>several Tesla facilities are going to some extremes in
>attempts to cut costs, including skipping on ordering office
>supplies – even toilet paper.
>
>A source even said that some employees are bringing toilet
>paper from home to the office in an attempt to reduce their
>overhead.
>

Das sind ja echte Kostentreiber die da angegriffen werden. Da würde ich als Mitarbeiter so schnell wie möglich flüchten.

  

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>Das sind ja echte Kostentreiber die da angegriffen werden. Da würde ich als Mitarbeiter so schnell wie möglich flüchten.

warum? will man seine leute im kopf auf linie bringen, muß man dort anfangen. bei mir war es sogar üblich schreibpapier beidseitig zu nutzen. mitarbeiter die weglaufen wenn's eng wird sind übrigens kein verlust sondern eine wichtige einsparung. mit anderen worten, wer das kleine nicht ehrt ist das große nicht wert - das gilt auch beim sparen.

  

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>>Das sind ja echte Kostentreiber die da angegriffen
>werden. Da würde ich als Mitarbeiter so schnell wie möglich
>flüchten.
>
>warum? will man seine leute im kopf auf linie bringen, muß man
>dort anfangen. bei mir war es sogar üblich schreibpapier
>beidseitig zu nutzen. mitarbeiter die weglaufen wenn's eng
>wird sind übrigens kein verlust sondern eine wichtige
>einsparung. mit anderen worten, wer das kleine nicht ehrt ist
>das große nicht wert - das gilt auch beim sparen.


Ich glaub es ist was wert (aber Klopapier ist immer peinlich) wenn das schon in guten Zeiten gelebt wird, als Reaktion auf Schwierigkeiten wirkt das mE nur als Verzweiflungsakt und demotivierend.

P.S.: Dazu köstlich zu lesen: "Memos from the Chairman"

  

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Verriß von Consumer Reports:

David Friedman, vice president of advocacy at Consumer Reports, says that as it currently exists, the automatic lane-change function raises serious safety concerns.

“Tesla is showing what not to do on the path toward self-driving cars: release increasingly automated driving systems that aren’t vetted properly,” he says. “Before selling these systems, automakers should be required to give the public validated evidence of that system’s safety—backed by rigorous simulations, track testing, and the use of safety drivers in real-world conditions.”

Ultimately, automatic lane changes may be an interesting feature for Tesla enthusiasts, but the feature doesn’t provide any meaningful assistance to drivers—and it certainly doesn’t make Tesla vehicles “self-driving” by any means.

“This isn’t a convenience at all,” says CR’s Fisher. “Monitoring the system is much harder than just changing lanes yourself. Using the system is like monitoring a kid behind the wheel for the very first time. As any parent knows, it’s far more convenient and less stressful to simply drive yourself.”

  

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>“This isn’t a convenience at all,” says CR’s Fisher.
>“Monitoring the system is much harder than just changing
>lanes yourself. Using the system is like monitoring a kid
>behind the wheel for the very first time. As any parent knows,
>it’s far more convenient and less stressful to simply drive
>yourself.”


Sehr gut auf den Punkt gebracht.

  

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Ich sehe das ein wenig anders.

Der Autopilot von Tesla ist das beste am Markt befindliche Assistenzsystem. Besser als all die Spurhalteassistenten der Konkurrenz. Auf Autobahnen mit guten Bodenmarkierungen kommt er praktisch ohne Eingriffe des Fahrers aus.
Aber: Es ist kein vollständig autonomes Fahren möglich, der Fahrer sollte auf der Autobahn nicht schlafen und nicht lesen, sondern zumindest ein Auge auf das Verkehrsgeschehen haben.

Und weil immer wieder gesagt wird, daß der Autopilot nicht "Autopilot" heißen sollte, wenn er nicht vollautonom fahren kann: Auch der Autopilot eines Flugzeuges übergibt, sobald es ein wenig komplizierter wird, sofort an den menschlichen Piloten. Auch der ist nur ein Assistenzsystem.

  

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In April, the Tesla Model 3 was replaced by the Renault Zoe as the best-selling pure electric car in Europe. The French subcompact recorded approximately 4,000 registrations in 27 European markets, up by 62%, as it was boosted by strong demand in France, Germany and Italy. The Tesla Model 3 was 350 units behind, with Norway, Germany and the Netherlands making up its top three markets.

  

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Solange es Wartelisten gibt, hängen die Zulassungszahlen weniger an der Nachfrage, als an der Lieferfähigkeit der Hersteller. Deswegen konnte sich Tesla auch einmalig an die Spitze setzen: Es wurde einfach die ganze Produktion ein paar Wochen lang nach Europa verschifft.

  

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Wenn das die Bullen sind ist Tesla verloren.

Tesla-Aktie einfach bloß „missverstanden“? Warum eine Analystin an ihr astronomisches Kursziel glaubt

Darum soll die Tesla-Aktie auf 4.000 US-Dollar steigen
Tasha Keeney heißt die besagte Analystin und sie ist derzeit bei Ark Invest im Dienst, einem Analysedienst, der sich gemäß der eigenen Webseite auf stark wachsende und disruptive Technologien und Aktien spezialisiert hat.

https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/tesla-aktie-einfach-bloss-missverstanden-warum-e ine-analystin-an-ihr-astronomisches-kursziel-glaubt-117212

  

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>Wenn das die Bullen sind ist Tesla verloren.
>
>Tesla-Aktie einfach bloß „missverstanden“? Warum eine
>Analystin an ihr astronomisches Kursziel glaubt
>
>Darum soll die Tesla-Aktie auf 4.000 US-Dollar steigen
>Tasha Keeney heißt die besagte Analystin und sie ist derzeit
>bei Ark Invest im Dienst, einem Analysedienst, der sich gemäß
>der eigenen Webseite auf stark wachsende und disruptive
>Technologien und Aktien spezialisiert hat.
>
>https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/tesla-aktie-einfach-bloss-missverstanden-warum-e ine-analystin-an-ihr-astronomisches-kursziel-glaubt-117212

Viel Glück Tesla, jetzt wo VW alle großen Autobauer zwingt heftig in e-autos zu investieren.

  

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Tesla Begins Taking Orders on Its Cheaper China-Built Model 3s

SHANGHAI— Tesla Inc. TSLA promised to start delivering Model 3 sedans built at its new Shanghai plant within six to 10 months—and priced them well below the imported version—as the electric-vehicle maker races to capitalize on booming Chinese demand.

Offering up details on its China strategy, Tesla said prices for the locally built Model 3 will start from about $47,500 for the Standard Range Plus version. Chinese buyers currently pay $58,900 for a basic Model 3 imported from the U.S.

Initial orders are being taken for the local Model 3 with the first Shanghai-built cars scheduled for delivery late this year or early next year, the company said in a post on its social media account.

Getting China right, industry analysts said, is pivotal for Tesla, whose share price has halved in the past six months amid doubts about its ability to ramp up deliveries in the U.S.

“Tesla has struggled with the Model 3 launch,” said Bill Russo, founder of Shanghai-based consulting firm Automobility. “A repeat of this in China would put their timing at risk and place further stress on their cash flow.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-begins-taking-orders-on-its-cheaper-china-built-model- 3s-11559297740

  

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Es gab im April schon einen Bericht für einen zukünftigen Deal mit Fiat in Europa. In den USA läuft dieser Geschäftszweig schon länger:
---------------

"Der Elektroautobauer wiederum habe seit 2010 fast zwei Milliarden Dollar Umsatz durch den Verkauf von Emissionszertifikaten gemacht."

https://derstandard.at/2000104299785/Tesla-verkauft-US-Emissionsrechte-an-GM-und-Fiat-Chr ysler

  

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Tesla Stock Is Back Above $200, on Hopes for Strong 2nd-Quarter Deliveries

appeared to be getting a lift from a Wednesday night story, published by Electrek, citing a company conference call on which executives suggested that Tesla was targeting 66,000 deliveries in North America in the second quarter.

That would top the more than 63,000 reported in the fourth quarter.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-investor-focus-second-quarter-deliveries-mus k-electric-car-51559835214

  

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Tesla-Chef Musk prognostiziert Rekordquartal

Der US-Elektroautobauer Tesla zeigt sich für das laufende Quartal optimistisch.

Bei der Hauptversammlung am Dienstag sagte Tesla-Vorstandschef Elon Musk, dass er mit Rekordauslieferungen rechne. Zudem sei das Unternehmen auf dem Weg, sein Produktionsziel bis Jahresende zu erreichen. Die Tesla-Aktie legte im nachbörslichen Handel um rund vier Prozent zu.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5642781/TeslaChef-Musk-prognostiziert e-Rekordquartal

  

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Space X gibt es billiger

Aus diesem Grund kann Musks Firma Space X billigere Flüge anbieten: Er verlangt für die Aussetzung eines Großsatelliten 50 Millionen Dollar (44,6 Millionen Euro), während Ariane 6 im besten Fall, das heißt bei einem Doppeltransport, auf 80 Millionen Dollar kommt. Kritiker fragen deshalb: Ist die Ariane 6 schon vor ihrem ersten Start veraltet? Verpasst der Europa-Koloss den Anschluss an den "New Space", die neue Ära am Firmament mit tausenden neuer Minisatelliten und branchenfremden Playern wie Space X oder Blue Origin von Amazon-Gründer Jeff Bezos? "Keineswegs", antwortet André-Hubert Roussel, der Vorstandsvorsitzende von Ariane Group, als wäre er die Frage gewohnt. In der Chefetage mit Blick auf das unübersehbare Gelände von Les Mureaux führt der 53-jährige Franzose aus, warum die Technologie der Wiederverwendbarkeit für die Europäer derzeit keine Option sei: "Sie rechnet sich einfach nicht, weil wir zu wenig Starts verzeichnen. Ariane 6 wird vorerst höchstens zehnmal im Jahr abheben. Damit das Raketen-Recycling rentabel ist, wären aber jährlich mindestens fünfzehn Starts nötig." Dazu kommt ein weiteres Argument. Elon Musk bekommt dutzende Aufträge von der US-Raumfahrtsagentur Nasa sowie vom Pentagon, dem amerikanischen Verteidigungsministerium. Solche "institutionellen" Buchungen für Wetter- oder Spionagesatelliten machen bei Space X 75 Prozent aus, bei Ariane nur 30 Prozent. Für den "kommerziellen" Bereich der Telekomsatelliten kann Musk dafür Dumpingpreise ansetzen. "Institutionelle Aufträge" "Dagegen ist Ariane Group machtlos", räumt Roussel ein. "Die Europäer müssten uns mehr institutionelle Satellitenaufträge erteilen." Die europäische Raumfahrtagentur Esa könnte bei ihrer Zusammenkunft im November vier neue Aufträge bekanntgeben, darunter auch Nachzügler für das europäische Navigationssystem Galileo. Das lastet Ariane 6 aber noch nicht völlig aus. Die französische Ariane-Zentrale ist erbost, dass die deutsche Bundeswehr zwei Satelliten an Space X vergeben hat. Doch kann man es ihr verübeln, wenn die Amerikaner einen Flug ins All zum halben Preis offerieren?

derstandard.at/2000104959461/Europa-kaempft-um-seinen-Platz-im-All

  

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Goldman slashes Tesla price target by $42 on demand concerns

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Thursday cut its price target on Tesla Inc by 21%, to third lowest on the Street, on concerns about the sustainability of demand for the electric car maker’s models.

The brokerage maintained his “sell” rating on the stock and cut its target by $42 to $158, 34% below the median target, saying the Street is “still modeling too optimistic sustainable volumes for Tesla”.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKCN1TL1U0

  

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Goldman slashes Tesla price target by $42 on demand concerns

The brokerage maintained his “sell” rating on the stock and cut its target by $42 to $158, 34% below the median target, saying the Street is “still modeling too optimistic sustainable volumes for Tesla”.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKCN1TL1U0

  

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Jefferies senkt Ziel für Tesla auf 300 Dollar - 'Buy'

Das Analysehaus Jefferies hat das Kursziel für Tesla nach einem Besuch am Standort Fremont von 400 auf 300 US-Dollar gesenkt, aber die Einstufung nach den jüngsten Kursverlusten auf "Buy" belassen. Die Sorgen um die Nachfrage seien wohl überzogen, aber die finanzielle Entwicklung sollte in den kommenden Monaten mit der Ausweitung der Produktion und der Modellpalette des Elektroautobauers weiter stark schwanken, schrieb Analyst Philippe Houchois in einer am Freitag vorliegenden Studie.

  

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Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. launched its Falcon Heavy rocket for the U.S. military early Tuesday, a spectacular night time liftoff that Musk described as the company’s toughest yet.
The rocket and payload rumbled aloft at 2:30 a.m. local time from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida after a three-hour delay.

SpaceX then recovered the rocket’s two side boosters -- which flew in April as part of the Arabsat-6A mission -- at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The center core failed to land on a droneship in the Atlantic Ocean.

  

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Medien: Tesla verfehlt angekündigtes Rekordabsatzziel

Noch im Mai wollte der Elektro-Auto-Hersteller im zweiten Quartal den Rekord von 90.700 ausgelieferten Autos zu brechen. Nun sollen es höchsten 61.000 werden.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5649937/Medien_Tesla-verfehlt-angekue ndigtes-Rekordabsatzziel

  

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Die Auslieferungsschätzung wird man ja in Kürze überprüfen können:

Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital has long been one of the most vocal bears on Tesla (TSLA). Here's his monthly letter, in which he updates his case against the stock.
https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.com/uploads/2019/07/EFD-7-1-Stanphyl-Capital-Lette r-June-2019.pdf

Excerpt:

Tesla's Q2 guidance is to sell 90-100,000 cars and while my own current guess is lower, at around 86,000 to perhaps as high as 88,000, due to 2019's massive price-slashing (approximately six "official" cuts so far this year plus huge discounting on top of that), whatever the delivery number is, it will occur at by far Tesla's lowest ASP ever... Even if it comes up with $340 million of non-repeating Q2 cost reduction/revenue recognition vs. Q1, Tesla will still lose around $500 million GAAP in the quarter...

The party's over, folks. With no profitable growth, massive ongoing losses and tens of billions of dollars in debt and purchase obligations, the equity in Tesla will prove worthless, either quickly or – following a series of increasingly ugly capital raises – slowly. And yet as the stock is currently still over $200/share...

  

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Tesla posts record vehicle deliveries in the second quarter

Tesla’s (TSLA) vehicle deliveries for the second quarter of 2019 topped Wall Street’s expectations, sending shares higher during after-hours trading.

The electric car-maker reported Tuesday that it delivered 95,200 vehicles in the three months ending in June, besting average analyst estimates for about 88,000 deliveries, according to Bloomberg data.

Shares of Tesla surged more than 7% during extended trading.

  

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Allerdings kein Wort zu Cash-Flow oder Profitabilität:

PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the second quarter, we achieved record production of 87,048 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 95,200 vehicles. In addition, we made significant progress streamlining our global logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes, enabling cost efficiencies and improvements to our working capital position.





Production

Deliveries





Model S/X

14,517

17,650





Model 3

72,531

77,550





Total

87,048

95,200



Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.

  

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Shame of me for missing the obvious fact that of course Tesla was going to hit its deliveries guidance of 90,000-100,000 cars. Every auto manufacturer in the world always sells what it produces. It’s not as if newly built cars, if unsold, are dragged away to the junkyard. Rather, if a particular model isn’t selling well, the manufacturer simply cuts prices until sales pick up. (Of course, if demand is weak, an automaker will also cut production, which is what Tesla did with its Model S and Xs. At one time, it was producing nearly 100,000 of these cars annually, but it’s now down to 50,000-60,000.)

 

So this is one of many critical questions about Tesla: how much did it have to cut prices to sell its cars? This will, of course, have a major impact on the company’s margins and net income.

 

Another key factor is product mix. Tesla makes a lot more money selling its higher-priced cars, the Model S and Model X, than the Model 3, yet Q2 deliveries were heavily skewed toward the latter. Comparing deliveries to last year’s fourth quarter (ignoring the unusually weak first quarter), Model S and X sales combined tumbled 36% while Model 3 sales jumped 22%, which does not bode well for margins.

 

Another mix factor to note is that the U.S. accounted for roughly 70% of sales in the second quarter vs. less than 50% in Q1. This could be due, in part, to Tesla pulling forward demand because the federal tax credit for all Tesla buyers fell from $3,750 in the first half of the year to $1,875 on July 1.

 

Recall what happened the last time the tax credit dropped – at the end of 2018, from $7,500 to $3,750. We now know that this helped Tesla report big sales in Q4 ‘19, but then Q1 was a disaster. Could we see the same dynamics at work from Q2 to Q3 this year?

 

In summary, while I cannot rule out the possibility that the better-than-expected delivery number for Q2 is indicative of a genuine and sustainable surge in demand, I don’t think it’s likely. The more likely scenario, in my opinion, is that the company struggles to sell all of the cars it’s producing, as a tidal wave of well-reviewed cars from nearly every major manufacturer in the world hits the market, leading Tesla to report ongoing losses – and the stock sinking to my $100 price target by year end.

Whitney Tilson

  

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>Could we see the same dynamics at work from Q2 to Q3 this year?

Unwahrscheinlich mE, nachdem Tesla auch gemeldet hat, daß im 2. Quartal mehr Bestellungen eingegangen sind als Autos ausgeliefert wurden.

  

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Tesla gamed a subsidy program in Canada to sell an extra ~4,000 cars. It was designed to exclude Tesla, asthis article notes, by being available only for cars with a price limit below even the cheapest Model 3. But Tesla was not to be deterred. It introduced a car priced $1 below the subsidy cap – with software set to limit the range to only 100 miles. Of course nobody would buy such a car, but now that the Model 3 “qualified” for the subsidy, Tesla then sold thousands of cars at full price. 

  

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One of my analysts, Kevin DeCamp, has owned both a Tesla car and the stock for years and remains bullish on it.

Despite my contrary views, I’ve always welcomed his viewpoint and encouraged him to write this article outlining his thesis.

-------------------------

On the flight to my first Tesla shareholder meeting last month, I was reminded of the mock funeral that a group of GM EV1 owners held when the company took back their leased cars and crushed them against their will in 2003. Clearly, Tesla’s success has gone way beyond the EV1, but the total global fleet of 1.2 billion vehicles makes Tesla’s sales to date of ~600,000 cars seem like a drop in the bucket (0.05% of total global vehicles). With EV (electric vehicle) competition finally arriving from well-funded giants and numerous red flags surfacing, is this the end of the road for Tesla (TSLA)?



As a long-time Tesla shareholder and car owner, I am accustomed to the negativity surrounding the company – yet this year seems particularly concerning. Executive departures, price cuts, layoffs, autopilot crashes, SEC battles, countless lawsuits, quality issues, and a costly capital raise have all taken a toll.



As the meeting began, I couldn’t help but think that the shareholders were like a family at a hospital insisting that their loved one was only having a minor setback when in reality they were in critical condition in ICU. Never underestimate the power of denial.



Tesla bulls can brush these off as growing pains, but the CDS spike, bond rout, and the stock price breaking through long-term support could be warning signs that the company is on the road to needing life support.



Unlike most Tesla bulls, I’ve carefully considered the bear case over the years. More recently, I doubt there are any bulls more familiar with it as I’m an analyst for Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research, who made a big call in March that the stock would hit $100 by the end of the year.



I’ve forced myself over the last few months to analyze every possible facet of the bear thesis deeper than I ever had and question every one of my assumptions.



I wanted to make sure that I hadn’t fallen into the trap Charlie Munger warns about. He has said that the human mind is like the human egg – it has a shut-off device such that once an idea gets inside, it doesn’t allow a new one to enter. Could I be experiencing this in real time?



Ultimately, I concluded that I wasn’t. In fact, I’m now more confident than ever that Tesla will make it through this transition period and continue to dominate and lead the EV market.



While there are many elements to the bear thesis, the crux of it is that demand for Tesla’s cars is hitting a wall and thus we’re in the early stages of this becoming a broken growth stock. I believe that this is completely wrong for a number of reasons.





The legacy automakers are far from all in



For years I’ve been hearing about the incoming tidal wave of competition that will inevitably crush Tesla’s growth and margins. This is a compelling argument, but it is unlikely to happen due to a variation of the innovator’s dilemma, Tesla’s first mover advantage, continued lead, and the new market demand it’s creating.



Another valuable lesson from Charlie Munger is that incentives drive everything. Setting aside the inferior 204-mile range of the Audi e-tron, this vehicle is the most impressive of the competitors to challenge Tesla to date. Yet, what is the incentive for Audi to sell money-losing e-trons as opposed to their other, profitable models? On the contrary, Tesla’s entire existence depends on selling as many electric cars as possible.



This is likely the reason the legacy automakers have put more effort into headlines describing their future EV plans than securing battery supplies – a major mistake since a massive amount of battery supply is necessary for any serious EV program. In addition, the battery pack is an integral and crucial part of the EV powertrain – you would think that any serious EV manufacturer would play an integral part in its design and manufacture.



However, the Chevy Bolt – the original “Tesla Killer” – is a great example of the industry’s approach. 70% of the Bolt’s components are made by LG Chem versus 90% of the Model 3’s being made in house by Tesla.



It’s not surprising, therefore, that the Bolt has had no success in Norway, where more than half of all car sales are EVs thanks to big government incentives. GM has sold a total of 223 Bolts since introducing it years ago – a number that the Tesla Model 3 has easily beaten many days this year.



Battery supply is a major issue as Audi has been forced to slow production of its e-tron and delay the launch of its next model due to battery shortages from LG Chem. LG Chem is also a major battery supplier to other OEMs, so not surprisingly it’s taken advantage of this dynamic and raised prices.



If I were an investor in Volkswagen, Audi’s parent company, I would have mixed feelings about this dynamic. Since Audi appears to take a large loss on every e-tron sold, then I should be happy that the battery shortage is dampening the sales of money-losing EVs. But does failure in this important emerging market hurt the company in the long run? It’s a classic innovator’s dilemma. No wonder GM destroyed those EV1s...



VW has estimated that the industry will need the equivalent of 40 Tesla gigafactories by 2025 in order to meet battery demand, assuming that 25% of sales volumes are hybrid or fully electric vehicles. Where are all the plans for these factories? Not to worry, VW has taken a page out of Elon Musk’s playbook and recently announced that its battery supply is “secured.”



Also, VW is just waking up to the fact that the Tesla Model 3 battery contains less than ¼ the amount of cobalt than their batteries in the VW ID3 – due to be launched in 2020. Meanwhile, Tesla is working on eliminating it entirely from their battery cells.



A clear demonstration of the difference incentives make is Musk’s comment at the shareholder’s meeting that Tesla may get into the mining business.



As we scale battery production to very high levels, we actually have to look further down the supply chain. We might get into the mining business. Maybe. A little bit, at least.



Of course, this comment resulted in a barrage of criticism and mockery. But, everyone missed the point. Musk will do anything necessary in order to ensure Tesla has sufficient supply to meet his ambitious goals, while the rest of the industry will do anything to continue selling their more profitable gasoline-powered vehicles.



Speaking of incentives, the dealership model is an additional headwind to EV sales. The majority of dealership profits come from service. Since EVs need very little service, dealerships have powerful incentives not to sell EVs. I saw this when I went to test drive the Jaguar I-Pace (read my review here) and the salesman didn’t even try to sell the car. This is why Tesla has fought hard to use a direct sales model, even in the face of being banned in some US states thanks to the political muscle of the dealerships. This was a bold, smart move by Tesla that traditional automakers will be hard-pressed to match.



Another major advantage that Tesla has developed is its charging infrastructure. Read this article to get a sense of how painful driving a typical EV is today is on a round trip from Los Angeles to Vegas (“8 hours driving, 5 more plugged-in”). In comparison, I did an amazing 6,000-mile road trip in my 2014 Model S in the winter of 2016 with zero issues.



It’s great to see that Electrify America is adding high-speed chargers across the U.S., but they’re still way behind Tesla. And once you realize that VW is funding this effort only because it was forced to do so by the U.S. government as part of a settlement for the Dieselgate scandal, you see once again that the auto incumbents are far from all in.



Tesla’s technology lead is large and may be increasing



Tesla’s lead in EVs is apparent when you consider that no competitor has managed to match the efficiency and range of the Tesla Model S…from 2012! How such well-funded competitors could possibly still be so far behind can be explained largely by incentives, but there is much more to the story.



The most skilled and innovative engineers flock to work for Tesla. The company placed as the second most attractive employer – after SpaceX – for engineering students in a recent survey. Elon Musk’s ability to attract top talent has been crucial to Tesla’s success and its technological lead.



This lead is obvious when you consider Tesla’s EV powertrain, but it is also clear when you analyze Tesla’s seamless integration of hardware and software. The future car is a computer on wheels and no car manufacturer rivals Tesla’s talent in this area, including the ability to update software over-the-air. These OTA updates have been accelerating and improving since their introduction in 2012 while other companies have barely begun offering them – GM recently announced that it will offer them, but not in every model, and not until 2023.



Tesla’s advantage in human capital compounds over time, as A-players tend to love working only with other A-players. As Steve Jobs once observed, the difference between an average software engineer and the best software engineer is “fifty to one, maybe one hundred to one.” The big auto incumbents don’t stand a chance attracting the same talent.



Hardware and software integration is becoming even more important as autonomy advances. Although there has been a lot of skepticism regarding Musk’s autonomy claims, NVIDIA legitimized Tesla as its only competition in the AI self-driving space in a blog post after Tesla’s Autonomy Day:



Indeed Tesla sees this approach as so important to the industry’s future that it’s building its future around it. This is the way forward. Every other automaker will need to deliver this level of performance.



There are only two places where you can get that AI computing horsepower: NVIDIA and Tesla.



While I don’t claim any special insight into Tesla’s plans with their recently acquired Maxwell dry cathode battery technology, if they successfully execute here it’s unlikely the incumbents will catch up in battery tech in the next decade.



Tesla’s lead in EVs and the integration of hardware and software is substantial and may be increasing. It will take years for other car manufacturers to get where Tesla is today – but the problem for them is that Tesla is a rapidly moving target.



The key question for bears is: Why wouldn’t the company with the best incentives, people, and technology win?





There is strong demand for Tesla’s cars



It seems to be popular wisdom in the finance community that Tesla’s market is small – limited mostly to coastal tree-hugging elites or tech bros – and has already hit a wall. In addition, the number of competitors coming down the pike will compound this problem and put an end to the growth story. Look no further, the bears say, than the first quarter numbers and Tesla’s price cuts.



But there’s evidence that demand has rebounded strongly as Tesla sold a record 95,200 cars in the second quarter – a big jump from the first quarter’s 63,000. Even though this fell right in the middle of their guidance, it far surpassed everyone’s expectations including most bulls. Although bears have now shifted their focus to margins and second half numbers, there is a good chance they will be cash flow positive this quarter and have more than $5 billion in cash on hand.



If the “demand cliff” so integral to the bear thesis – which has now been moved forward 6 months - is wrong and second half numbers are better than expected, I think the short thesis will unravel and the stock will soar.



Big picture, I believe Tesla is the only company in the industry that is doing innovative and exciting things – and nobody else is even close. This is why the Model 3 is the best selling car in the US by revenue and 63% of trade-ins for the vehicle are from non-premium vehicles. This trade-in data can’t be emphasized enough as it shows that many people are spending more on the Model 3 than they ever have on a car.



Alex Roy – a well-known rally race driver and Musk critic – sums up my thoughts here on why this is happening:



Hilariously, $TSLA shorts and OEM publicists would have us believe the next "Tesla Killer" will deliver because a dozen committees met and everyone ticked their boxes. None of them understand what they're up against.



All of Musk's bulls**t, exaggerations and pettiness don't matter because once you get in a Tesla, there really is nothing else like it. Mine isn't perfect, and I don't care. I want what it does, and don't care about what it doesn't. I want to live the dream. I want to drive the future.



Remember, this is coming from a Tesla critic. Imagine how people who love the company and Musk feel about the car? Actually, you don’t need to imagine as Tesla topped Consumer Reports’ owner satisfaction list for the third year in a row, even with all the reliability issues and negativity surrounding the company. The majority of Tesla owners (myself included) are passionate evangelists for the company – bears underestimate the power of this at their peril...



While bears focus on quality and service issues, they forget that Tesla relentlessly strives for continual improvement and it has a growing “sales force” of tens of thousands of new customers a month – the majority of who are incredibly happy with their cars.



Tesla is destroying the competition with the Model 3 and this is before it enters the most popular segment, crossovers. Although the Model 3 was indeed a “bet the company” program, it’s only a warm up for the Model Y.



Tesla plans to sell more Model Ys than S, X, and 3 combined given the size of the crossover segment. And given that 75% of the parts in the Model Y are shared with the Model 3, I think both the cost and speed of the Model Y launch will surprise everyone.







Tesla sold 245,000 cars globally last year – about the same it sold in its entire existence before 2018. It has grown revenues at a 93% annual rate since it started selling the Model S in 2012, and I believe it can grow at a very high rate for many, many years given that it’s still only a tiny fraction of the total market. It sold a mere 0.29% of total cars worldwide last year. Do the bears really believe that Tesla’s market share a few years from now will still be 0.29%???



To see how wrong the bears have been, consider this 2014 article by one of the best known, Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital: “Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd.” He wrote:



Conclusion: even if Tesla were able to grow as quickly as Microsoft did in its prime (an absurd scenario for a non-monopolistic, non-software company) it would produce only 186,000 cars in 2020.



Tesla beat this number by 32% - in 2018.



Tesla’s true competition is the hundreds of thousands of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles that roll off the production line every day globally, not the trickle of inferior “Tesla killers” that are really just boring old cars that happen to be electric.

Profits and Valuation



To my knowledge, there have been no profitable EV programs to date anywhere in the world without government incentives due to the high cost of batteries. In fact, the majority of manufactures lose at least a few thousand dollars per vehicle with government incentives. This is why most carmakers only make EVs to satisfy regulators and clearly haven’t made much of an effort. They tell themselves that EVs are not profitable and consumers don’t want them so what is the point of making the massive investments necessary?



But EVs are much simpler than ICE vehicles and have 90% fewer moving parts, so they have the potential to be more profitable than ICE vehicles if battery costs can be reduced substantially through scale and innovation. To do this, however, you need a massive amount of capital and conviction – and, of course, the will to design EVs that people actually want to buy. The incumbent automakers have the capital, but are still lacking the conviction and this is why they are still way behind Tesla on battery costs and efficiency, with no signs of catching up.



Sandy Munro, a well-respected auto consultant, was surprised to see that the Model 3 has the potential for a 30% profit margin and claimed, “No electric car is getting 30%. Nobody.” Whether Tesla can achieve this with their current cost structure and manufacturing issues remains to be seen, but the fact remains they are the only company making the necessary investments to produce a desirable, profitable EV without incentives.



One of the most famous valuation experts in the world, Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU Stern School of Business, has estimated Tesla can achieve 10% operating margins five years from now in his latest analysis, in which he calculates intrinsic value of the stock at $190/share.



His work is exceptional, but I believe his estimates of $100 billion in revenue ten years from now underestimates Tesla’s potential by at least 50-100%. In 2014, Mark Spiegel wrote that Tesla producing 186,000 cars by 2020 would be an “absurd scenario,” - yet tripling this number is a real possibility. Analysts and investors have consistently underestimated Tesla’s sales, which is why I think doubling Damodaran’s 2028 estimates of 1.6 million cars is an achievable goal, giving them a global auto market share of ~3%.



The U.S., China, SpaceX put



No discussion of Tesla is complete without touching on the negatives – although you can just go to Twitter for that!



Professor Damodaran also increased his probability of failure to 20% due to Tesla’s increased debt load. When asked why he bought such a risky stock at $180/share with only a 5% margin of safety, he sent us a lesson he did on margin of safety and said that he thinks Tesla’s stock has a positive tail and a downside floor, “partly from the possibility of autonomous cars and partly because there is a chance that it could end up dominating the EV business, and bringing in the possibility of an acquisition floor tilted the balance.”



Besides the acquisition floor, I believe there is another form of downside protection that no one is talking about. China allowed Tesla to build the first 100% foreign-owned and operated auto plant in the country because they are so committed to electric cars. In addition, it appears that the government really wants the company to succeed and the Chinese love the Tesla brand and Elon Musk.



China has the biggest auto market in the world and is leading the world in EVs. If electric cars are the future, when will the U.S. wake up and realize that China is way ahead in this important industry of the future and it needs to start being more supportive of it… and the world leader in the space – Tesla. When the two biggest economies in the world are competing with each other – and both want Tesla to succeed —I can see many ways in which this might benefit the company, from access to capital to building new factories.



Lastly, don’t forget Musk’s other moonshot (pun intended) company, SpaceX. Its valuation has continued a steady climb – almost doubling since Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas first brought up the idea of a Tesla-SpaceX merger in 2017. In his latest investor call, Jonas seemed particularly keen on the idea. In this scenario, Musk would use his 54% ownership of SpaceX as collateral for a loan to help take Tesla private.



All of this is speculation, but bears shouldn’t discount the incredible optionality and downside protection that exists in many forms at Tesla.





Conclusion



Tesla is disrupting a trillion dollar industry through bold bets, conviction, and innovation. Its technology and the human capital advantage behind it have created the first lineup of desirable, profitable EVs that have the crucial hardware and software integration that is necessary for future autos. Meanwhile, incumbent automakers are trapped in a classic innovator’s dilemma, as can be seen in their results and decisions to date.



As a result, I think we’ll see in the next 6-12 months that demand for Tesla’s EVs will be stronger than Wall Street expects, resulting in sales, margins, and cash flows that far surpass expectations enabling them to continue growing rapidly and funding their continued expansion.



This year has been a difficult one for Tesla as it struggles to drive efficiencies in order to introduce more affordable versions of the Model 3 and refresh their higher end models while maintaining margins after a big step down in the US EV tax credit. Bears smelt blood in the water and have finally made some money, but - in reality - this was nothing but a bump in the road of insane growth and demand for their cars will get them back on track.



Although likely to remain volatile, I believe the stock will keep it’s relatively high multiple due to Tesla’s continued lead in the future auto market and the share price will be much higher a few years out as operating margins continue to improve.


If I’m wrong and demand and/or margins disappoint, there is downside protection as Tesla has valuable assets (technology, people, brand, etc.).

  

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Responses to my analyst's bull case on TSLA

1)

Well done piece. I remain a bull on the company and a bear on the stock (without a financial position). What is missing from the article (though clearly touched on) is this: I have many friends with Audis, BMWs, MBs, etc, all of which cost more than my Tesla (AWD LR 2019 Model 3). Once they are in my car, they are certain that there next car will be a tesla. It is just that impressive and keeps on impressing in many ways, while other cars fade in glory.



To me, the biggest unknown is: how much demand might flow from more and better marketing. The car does sell itself, but it is the ONLY car I know of that does no traditional sales and marketing.



2)

I'm certainly biased myself, but I do not find this whole ode to Elon convincing in the least. He is steel man-ing all his own arguments, and straw man-ing all the opposing arguments.

He never addresses the fact that the Model 3 isn't profitable, and sales for their more profitable models are slowing down continually.

He never talks about the fact that Tesla pulls in hundreds of millions in revenue from emissions credit sales every year (most likely every quarter).

He compares Chevy Bolt sales in Norway to global Model 3 sales.

Completely ignores the whole Panasonic fiasco, with the purchasing commitment that goes with it.

One second he (briefly) mentions the procession of senior management that keeps leaving the company, and next says how all engineers want to work there. Because people love to work for companies where they keep seeing the managers leave.

Never talks about all the endless servicing and repair waiting times.

Never mentions the insider stock sales, or the board members who will not be renewing their directorships.

He also confuses that Elon will say anything with Elon actually doing anything to make the company succeed.

Doesn't mention the fact that Tesla just opened new territories for sales that likely bumped up demand temporarily.

Thousands of cars standing in lots doing nothing.

China wants Tesla to succeed? When has China wanted anyone to succeed? Given their history of industrial espionage, IP theft, and expropriations, you'd have to be incredibly certain that you have covered all your bases covered in order not to lose your shirt in China.

Disclaimer: our friends have a Model X. The car is incredibly cool. But one of the first times I sat in it, the regenerative braking didn't kick in.



3) I give you credit for having hired such a smart young man



4)

What your Tesla bull ignores is these three issues, which completely and utterly demolish the case for BEV and not only for Tesla, but especially for Tesla since they committed themselves to a BEV only strategy.



• The consumer use case is dead. The way BMW analyzed that there is NO demand for BEV in Europe outside of incentives and regulation, for the consumer use case simply does not exist. Their conclusion, the only markets with demand for BEV are California and China.

• But China is already shifting from BEV towards hydrogen, shifting $17 bn from BEV towards FCEV.

• The regulatory use case is dead. The marginal analysis that is now beginning to be widely accepted is that hybrid cars reduce CO2 from the automotive sector far faster and much more than the BEV sector, so that even for committed greenies, if they get honest, the use case for BEV from a policy standpoint is dead. The meaningful forward strategy is hybrid now and FCEV later.

In short, Tesla committed too early to a single technology as the right one for the future, which is now increasingly being recognized as wildly suboptimal. It plunged some legacy car makers prematurely into a BEV strategy. Toyota and BMW may be a few of the smart ones that may be left standing in the end. BEV is a dead end. Combine all that with the mounting quality problems of the model 3 and it will end up that Tesla did for cars, what pantyhose did for fingerf*cking. (I would not publish that last comment, but I consider this private correspondence.) The point is Tesla did shake up the automotive industry, but caused the lemmings to go off the cliff on a BEV bet... only a few thought it through and have a chance of coming out as winners. For the most part the BEV will prove to be a historical mistake, a dead-end.



5) I think you just made Mark Spiegel spit out his morning coffee.



6)

Thanks for the article. Overall, I think it’s a good one, and admire your analyst’s courage and kudos to you for your open-mindedness as the boss.



I would have liked to have seen more balance sheet analysis with more elaboration on their debt load and how they are going to cover that moving forward. I know he mentions Damodaran’s assessment, but what about his? Of course assuming Tesla’s demand is highly, highly cyclical. Given their levered balance sheet, heavy/ongoing CAPEX, and assuming a more than likely recession in the next few years; they have very little room error. Given that, my questions are:



- Assuming soft credit markets, how will they fund these needs given their current capital structure?

- How can they fund just their current operational needs as is in event of stress?

- Truly what value can be assigned to their assets in event of stress?



I may be off the ranch here, but want to help prevent “Errors of Omission.” Thanks and keep up the great work!



Kevin’s reply:

Tesla remains an incredibly risky stock. Although I alluded to that, I should have emphasized this more and maybe discussed position sizing so nobody gets hurt. Because this seems obvious to me, I didn’t spend much time on it. Nevertheless, this was still a failure on my part and thank you for pointing it out.

Your questions are good ones, but I would add to your point by saying that the company doesn’t even need a recession to experience stress given the capital structure. All it needs is softer demand than anticipated and this is why some of the smartest investors in the world - Whitney being one of them - think the game is over. This is reflected in the stock and bond market (or maybe just beginning to be reflected).

In this case - even without a recession - some sort of restructuring will likely be necessary. One of the reasons I believe Whitney chose $100 as a target as opposed to zero is because he thinks there is some value there and/or knows that Musk has quite a few billionaire friends and has a gift for raising money.

This is why my whole thesis is based on demand being higher than Wall Street expects. Their capital structure is essentially a result of their biggest asset and their biggest liability – Musk. He should have raised more equity at higher prices instead of debt, but I guess a combination of hubris, his insane comp program, and his confidence in demand for his products explains this choice.

Essentially, demand (as a result of the reasons discussed) will be the “bailout” they need to improve their operating leverage and margins so that the market will regain confidence in the story. In turn, this will allow them to continue funding the massive investments necessary through cash flows and further capital raises. Obviously, I may be proved wrong.

In terms of a recession, there is a chance that the only reason Tesla is still alive as we know it is because we have gone so long without one. Although the business is clearly cyclical, there is a decent chance that the nature of the demand dynamics with the secular shift to EVs and their unique products and brand strength will help them ride out a recession. However, this depends heavily on how the demand and margins settle out over the next 6-12 months.

I agree 100% there is little room for error, but this has always been the nature of Tesla and Elon Musk. I still haven’t quite figured him out, but I think he thrives on operating this way. We’ll find out within the next year of two if it will finally get the best of him.

Thanks for your valuable feedback. I will definitely include more of the risks if I end up publishing it.



7)

I have been wanting to tell you a fun story about my wife and Tesla. Sha has been listening to me do research (on the sofa at night) on the model 3 for 6 months, but I never bought one. She owned an Audi A5 for the past four years and is a 60 year old business woman who is someone stylish (unlike me) only buys Apple electronics, ect.



A month ago she walks in the house from work and announces immediately “I saw the cutest red car on 83 (interstate) pulled up next to it to see what it was, and it was a Tesla Model 3, I am going buy one.” Now, her current Audi was 4 years old, and she had been casually listening to me talk about the software, but I was shocked buy her statement. She is not an impulse person, pretty measured.



She goes to a dealer 2 days later to see one, and buys it on-line 2 days later. I had to scramble to get the 50amp plugs installed, it was delivered 10 days later. She has owned it for three weeks and never stops talking about it, I am sick of hearing about it at this point. Talks to everyone about it. She loves it.



She bought the most expensive configuration you can get ($49,000 before rebates) – AWD, long range battery, and red (extra $2k for red). She manages the car from her phone via the Tesla app which is a beautiful piece of software I had not ever seen. She learned the user interface in the car in a few days with no support. She is a single datapoint, but if she is an indicator of the general Tesla buyer, they are gonna sell a lot of these cars.



8)

Where are the numbers/projections, etc.? It appears that this article could be written whether TSLA trades at $100 or $1000. At least throw around some round numbers in some fashion. In the end the numbers actually do matter.



I see a whole lot wrong in the article; perhaps the biggest weakness is that there are a lot of assumptions about TSLA tech leading with no underlying research to support it. Are they really leading in batteries? Why would one think they are ahead of companies that have been doing it for much longer and for which it is the prime business? TSLA is ahead of Panasonic? No risk of TSLA’s battery tech becoming obsolete? Advantages in AI? Doubtful. They are ahead of Google and Amazon (and others)? These are important things to focus on if they are going to be the foundation of the bull case presented. I don’t think your analyst has actually dug into them. That is bordering on malpractice.



There is plenty to criticize in the write up but overall I see the underlying arguments as, well, immature. Really. A smart college undergrad in a business school could knock out something like this in a couple of weeks. Another smart college kid from the same class could write an even better rebuttal than the bear case he presented.



“China allowed Tesla to build the first 100% foreign-owned and operated auto plant in the country because they are so committed to electric cars. In addition, it appears that the government really wants the company to succeed and the Chinese love the Tesla brand and Elon Musk.”



Ummm, it’s not built yet. More importantly, I didn’t realize that any analyst could be so naïve. The Chinese government wants a US auto manufacturer to succeed? Really?



My thinking is that before we even get to finding out the real numbers for Q2, the new demand/sales for TSLA for July will start dribbling out. People are very carefully watching this stuff. It won’t look good and the stock is likely to start drifting lower. Then the Q2 numbers will shake things up, but, again, very quickly the focus will be on Q3 demand and as the numbers come in over time the stock will follow.



9)

The bears analyze tsla as if it’s a mature soft drink company, but this is a publicly listed late stage venture capital company with an evolving market and evolving products.



Bears are worried that TSLA margins have fallen by 20bp, or that Musk hasn’t yet delivered on an insurance product, but don’t see that costs will come down and multiple revenue streams will eventually be monetized.



Re: the demand issue and concern on prices dropping...

“I will build a motor car for the great multitude. It will be large enough for the family but small enough for the individual to run and care for. It will be constructed of the best materials, by the best men to be hired, after the simplest designs that modern engineering can devise. But it will be so low in price that no man making a good salary would be unable to own one -- and enjoy with his family the blessing of hours of pleasure in God’s great open spaces.”



Musk in 2019, no Henry Ford in 1908.



“Even Henry Ford himself was surprised by how much demand responded to the lower price. A price reduction to 35-40 percent of the original price boosted sales by more than 700 times. The fact is, the relationship between price reduction and demand expansion is asymmetrical. If you cut price by half or more, demand rises exponentially -- by tens or hundreds or thousands of times.”



And this was at a time where there were only scale benefits in manufacturing, and no benefits of data or networking.



Growth stories aren’t broken when they don’t show profit, but when they stop growing. I can’t think of a clearer growth story where you have a market leader in a massively growth market since e-commerce, smartphones, and credit cards.



You should be on the right side of history here. Even Citron made the right long term call here, though he traded it poorly.



10)

“Another valuable lesson from Charlie Munger is that incentives drive everything. Setting aside the inferior 204-mile range of the Audi e-tron, this vehicle is the most impressive of the competitors to challenge Tesla to date.”



-- Why is the Audi eTron more impressive than Kia Niro, Kia Soul EV, Hyundai Kona EV or Chevrolet Bolt EV? (Opel Ampera-e in Europe) The Audi eTron is a twice as expensive vehicle, is larger, vastly heavier, has AWD and is off-road worthy, sure -- but why is it a better engineering showcase than any of those other cars from Kia, Hyundai or GM? Those cars have great range for their prices -- mostly from 235 to 260 miles of range for US-equivalent prices of approximately $38,000 or so. In other words, very similar to a base Tesla Model 3.



“Yet, what is the incentive for Audi to sell money-losing e-trons as opposed to their other, profitable models? On the contrary, Tesla’s entire existence depends on selling as many electric cars as possible.”



-- First of all, we don’t know what Audi makes or loses on the eTron. Audi doesn’t report a per-vehicle line profit & loss statement. So it seems to be pure speculation. Secondly, let’s say it’s true though. Is that supposed to be a good argument in favor of Tesla’s business model -- that it alone among non-Chinese meaningfully sized automakers has no profitable business to help offset its losses that seem to be politically mandated in the BEV (battery-electric vehicle) world?



“This is likely the reason the legacy automakers have put more effort into headlines describing their future EV plans than securing battery supplies – a major mistake since a massive amount of battery supply is necessary for any serious EV program.”



-- No. The reason automakers, in the aggregate, don’t make more EVs has nothing to do with battery supply. It has all to do with profits. If they could make money selling them, they would! Battery production has been increasing constantly for several years already, and will continue to do so. Tesla will sell around 350,000 or so cars this year, out of close to a 2 million unit market. How come those other companies are able to have at or more than 80% of the market if they somehow can’t get batteries? To be sure, there will always be some automaker that will have a shortage here and there as a result of poor planning or unexpected demand. I believe Kia and Hyundai have been suffering from those phenomena for the last 10 months, for example. There will be other examples too, just like for other automotive parts. It happens here and there, but no major aggregate effect.



“However, the Chevy Bolt – the original “Tesla Killer” – is a great example of the industry’s approach. 70% of the Bolt’scomponents are made by LG Chem versus 90% of the Model 3’s being made in house by Tesla.”



-- GM has more experience in electric vehicles than any other automaker in the last two decades. Remember, manufacturing of the Chevrolet Volt began in November 2010. The Bolt EV came six years later -- November 2016. GM had the flexibility to make some of the components in-house vs letting a supplier make some of those parts. It chose the latter on this specific program. Why is that a bad thing? Isn’t it better to be flexible and allow for a supplier to outbid your internal production team?



“It’s not surprising, therefore, that the Bolt has had no success in Norway, where more than half of all car sales are EVs thanks to big government incentives. GM has sold a total of 223 Bolts since introducing it years ago – a number that the Tesla Model 3 has easily beaten many days this year.”



-- This is false. The Chevrolet Bolt EV is sold in Europe as the Opel Ampera-e, which has sold 2,664 units in Norway to date. The fact that there have been 223 Bolt EVs privately imported to Norway in addition to those, is not all that relevant. More relevant to GM/Opel in Norway are two other points, however. First, the Scandinavian countries have not been into GM or Opel cars historically. They have a bad quality reputation there. German and Swedish brands dominate in those geographies -- Volvo, VW Group, BMW and Mercedes. After those, the Korean and Japanese do pretty well. Secondly, and a lot more important in this case, is that GM sold Opel to PSA -- the French! -- two years ago, just as the Ampera-e was going on sale in Europe. Based on a variety of issues (transfer pricing, etc) between GM and PSA, the European sales plan for the Ampera-e got cut dramatically. So, that’s the main reason GM has exported so few Opel Ampera-e (and the same car with a different badge, the Chevrolet Bolt EV) to Europe.



“Battery supply is a major issue as Audi has been forced to slow production of its e-tron and delay the launch of its next model due to battery shortages from LG Chem. LG Chem is also a major battery supplier to other OEMs, so not surprisingly it’s taken advantage of this dynamic and raised prices.”



-- That’s a rumor that has never been confirmed by any of the parties involved. Besides, sales of the Audi eTron has done pretty well against Tesla Model X and S in Europe, so what’s the problem?



“VW has estimated that the industry will need the equivalent of 40 Tesla gigafactories by 2025 in order to meet battery demand, assuming that 25% of sales volumes are hybrid or fully electric vehicles. Where are all the plans for these factories? Not to worry, VW has taken a page out of Elon Musk’s playbook and recently announced that its battery supply is “secured.”



-- “Assuming that 25% of sales volumes are hybrid of fully electric vehicles.” That’s like saying that the automakers couldn’t adjust if 25% of sales volumes were to become a different body style, such as going from sedans to SUVs. If consumer preferences change, you can be sure that the automakers will shift their volumes too. It won’t happen in perfect lockstep -- building factories and changing production doesn’t happen with such smooth perfection -- but on the whole, that’s what will happen in that scenario. It’s a different story whether consumers actually *want* to pay for 25% of their cars to be electric. Of course, if the government mandates the whole thing, then you eat what The Politburo forces you to eat.



“Also, VW is just waking up to the fact that the Tesla Model 3 battery contains less than ¼ the amount of cobalt than their batteries in the VW ID3 – due to be launched in 2020. Meanwhile, Tesla is working on eliminating it entirely from their battery cells.”



-- And you don’t think Volkswagen and its battery cell suppliers aren’t?



“A clear demonstration of the difference incentives make is Musk’s comment at the shareholder’s meeting that Tesla may get into the mining business.”



-- That’s a clear sign of insanity or hubris. What’s next -- getting into the semiconductor business in order to compete with Nvidia or Intel? Oh wait...



“...the rest of the industry will do anything to continue selling their more profitable gasoline-powered vehicles.”



-- Um, this is called “sound business practice.”



“Speaking of incentives, the dealership model is an additional headwind to EV sales. The majority of dealership profits come from service. Since EVs need very little service, dealerships have powerful incentives not to sell EVs.”



-- Ironically, that’s not true for Tesla. An electric car is supposed to require fewer regular maintenance (such as an oil change every 10,000 miles) events, but Tesla sure is in the shop more often than any other car in the market: 468% more often, as measured by TrueDelta: https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-3/reliability-1376



“I saw this when I went to test drive the Jaguar I-Pace (read my review here) and the salesman didn’t even try to sell the car.”



-- And here I thought that it was a positive that salespeople were not supposed to be pushy? I thought that that was supposed to be a plus. Apple stores, hello? What you’re telling me is that trying to buy an electric car from a regular car dealer is like going into the Apple store. The reality is that any car dealer will be happy to sell you any car they have on the lot. No car dealer is happy sitting on inventory costing them interest every day. A car dealer will sell whatever is in demand -- otherwise the customer goes somewhere else, and it costs them money to sit on inventory.



“This is why Tesla has fought hard to use a direct sales model, even in the face of being banned in some US states thanks to the political muscle of the dealerships. This was a bold, smart move by Tesla that traditional automakers will be hard-pressed to match.”



-- This is true. Tesla should be allowed to sell its cars directly, just like most other products. Other automakers are prevented by state franchise laws from following this model. It’s not obvious to what degree this is an advantage, however. You need scale in order to make a direct sales model work, especially for large/heavy products such as an automobile.



“It’s great to see that Electrify America is adding high-speed chargers across the U.S., but they’re still way behind Tesla.”



-- Seeing as EA started opening its sites only little over a year ago, and Tesla started in late 2012, it should be no surprise that EA has not yet caught up. However, they’re spending $2 billion in the U.S. alone and just look at the EA map to see for yourself: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/locate-charger When I looked at EA’s U.S. map a moment ago, I counted 445 across the fruited plains -- almost complete to connect the major metropolitan areas across the country. Give it another few months, and they’re there.



“This lead is obvious when you consider Tesla’s EV powertrain, but it is also clear when you analyze Tesla’s seamless integration of hardware and software. The future car is a computer on wheels and no car manufacturer rivals Tesla’s talent in this area, including the ability to update software over-the-air. These OTA updates have been accelerating and improving since their introduction in 2012 while other companies have barely begun offering them – GM recently announced that it will offer them, but not in every model, and not until 2023.”



-- That’s not exactly true. GM cars have had over-the-air updates as early as 2006 or so. The difference is that those over-the-air updates don’t touch things such as steering, braking or acceleration. It tends to be limited to infotainment and telematics functionality. Ford has had this for the last three or so years too -- almost every Ford comes with SYNC-3 which gets over the air updates. The risks associated with over the air updates are huge. If something goes wrong, someone could die and the whole company could be sued or otherwlse legislated into oblivion. Remember the “unintended acceleration” lawsuits against Toyota a decade or so ago? Billions of dollars in liability. Did you see what happened to Boeing in the last couple of months, as its software malfunctioned? If you are an automaker, you are taking enormous tail risk with OTAs. It’s all fine and dandy as long as they work, aren’t hacked or a “bad government” doesn’t use them to insert its will into the matter. But as soon as something goes wrong, your “computer” (car) has now been hacked. As Dirty Harry said in 1970, “Do I feel lucky today?”



“But there’s evidence that demand has rebounded strongly as Tesla sold a record 95,200 cars in the second quarter – a big jump from the first quarter’s 63,000.



-- And yet, Tesla delivered fewer cars in the first half of 2019, than it did in the second half of 2018. The adjusted run-rate looks a lot like 90,000 per quarter. That seems to be Tesla’s capacity at Fremont. Until the China factory comes online, sales are unlikely to average much above 90,000 at best, and perhaps a little below, depending on pricing and other quarterly fluctuations.



“If the “demand cliff” so integral to the bear thesis – which has now been moved forward 6 months - is wrong and second half numbers are better than expected, I think the short thesis will unravel and the stock will soar.”



-- Let’s say that Tesla sells 91,000 cars in Q3 and 101,000 cars in Q4, from Fremont. That means 350,000 for the year. Perhaps add another 10,000 from China, for a grand total of 360,000. Do you think that will be bullish or bearish for the stock? Unless this volume comes with healthy and sustainable profits -- not one-time gimmicks -- I say it is more likely to be bearish.



“Tesla is destroying the competition with the Model 3 and this is before it enters the most popular segment, crossovers. Although the Model 3 was indeed a “bet the company” program, it’s only a warm up for the Model Y. Tesla plans to sell more Model Ys than S, X, and 3 combined given the size of the crossover segment. And given that 75% of the parts in the Model Y are shared with the Model 3, I think both the cost and speed of the Model Y launch will surprise everyone.”



-- There is some truth to that. However, look at the competition as it emerged for the Model S, X and 3, and then compare it with the competition for the Y. The S, X and 3 had little to no competition for the longest time. The Y will have stiff competition essentially from Day One -- and in some cases even before it arrives. Yes, the compact crossover segment is the place to be, but that’s also why other automakers are going there. I can’t think of a single volume automaker that isn’t going to blanket this with entries. Here are just some initial examples (there will be close to 50 or so of them in the market by 2022): Audi Q4 eTron, Volvo XC40, VW Crozz, Ford (no name), GM (several), Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Toyota and others. You add them all together and consider the pricing pressures in that segment. Profits will continue to be elusive.



“Do the bears really believe that Tesla’s market share a few years from now will still be 0.29%???”



-- Actually, the bears think Tesla’s market share will be 0%, for it will have gone out of business. But if it stays in business and it continues to sell below cost, and government subsidies (emissions credits, etc) continue or even worsen, then it’s possible that Tesla’s market could approach 0.5% in four years from now. That’s probably the best-case unit volume scenario for Tesla.



“To do this, however, you need a massive amount of capital and conviction – and, of course, the will to design EVs that people actually want to buy.”



-- You must not have been paying attention to how much money automakers are spending on electrification. In fact, it’s taking a huge hit to their earnings numbers. Also, how do you explain that the Audi eTron and Jaguar i-Pace are doing so relatively well against Tesla Model X and S in Europe? Those were just the two first premium mainstream-form-factor EVs to arrive in competition to the X and S. What will happen when the Mercedes, BMW, Ford and Volvo start their equivalent sales over the next several months, between now and Summer 2020?



Sandy Munro, a well-respected auto consultant, was surprised to see that the Model 3 has the potential for a 30% profit margin and claimed, “No electric car is getting 30%. Nobody.”



-- Munro has been a credible guy, widely respected in the industry -- but most people in the industry think he is wrong on this 30% number. Every automaker has bought dozens of Teslas and torn them down. If Munro was right, Tesla wouldn’t have lost $700 million in Q1 alone.



“Whether Tesla can achieve this with their current cost structure and manufacturing issues remains to be seen, but the fact remains they are the only company making the necessary investments to produce a desirable, profitable EV without incentives.”



-- Without incentives? What? Whatever the other items of dispute, two things are clear: No company gets as many incentives (government-mandates policies, such as emissions credits) as Tesla, and no major automaker still loses as much money per car as Tesla if you average out a few quarters in a row, say a rolling two-year average.



“China allowed Tesla to build the first 100% foreign-owned and operated auto plant in the country because they are so committed to electric cars. In addition, it appears that the government really wants the company to succeed and the Chinese love the Tesla brand and Elon Musk.”



-- When it comes to Chinese treatment of foreign automakers on Chinese soil, let’s just say that the that jury is out! China has well over 300 of its own EV automakers, and it would be a shame if anything happened to the business prospects for any of the foreign-owned (in whole or in part) automakers trying to compete with China, on Chinese soil.

  

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Tesla (TSLA) is getting ready to ramp up production. An internal email says it is "making preparations" to boost output at the Tesla plant in Fremont, California. No other details were released.

  

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According to TrueDelta, the organization measuring service center visits, the Tesla Model 3 has to visit a service center 468% more than other cars, which places it as the single most frequent visitor to a repair shop out of all cars sold in the U.S. market, by a very wide margin: https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-3/reliability-1376

  

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Die meisten Sachen klingen zwar nach Schönheitsfehlern, mit denen man genausogut weiterfahren könnte, aber eine gewisse Schlamperei in der Fertigung scheint zu bestehen oder bestanden zu haben.

  

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Entweder fantastische Fortschritte bei den Kosten oder zähe Nachfrage?

Tesla shares drifted lower in pre-market trading Tuesday after the clean-energy carmaker dropped the cheapest versions of its Model S sedan and Model X SUV from its product lineup and adjusted some of its prices in a bid to simplify its offerings of models and ranges of battery-powered vehicles.

The automaker on Tuesday said it will limit its Model X and Model S to 'Long Range' or 'Performance' - cutting out lower end versions of the two cars that have standard-range capability, though also cutting the entry level price point on both models.

A long-range Model S will now start at $79,990, while a long-range Model X will start at $84,990, excluding potential buying incentives. Tesla also lowered the starting price of its mass-market Model 3 to $38,990.

https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/cars/tesla-tweaks-model-lineup-in-bid-to-simplify-pri cing-shares-slip-15020406

  

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>Tesla Falls as Model 3 Price Cut Signals Need to Support
>Demand
>
> Evercore links the change to the halving of U.S. tax credit
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/tesla-says-it-cut-prices-of-vehicles-s hipped-to-china

Da werden viele froh sein ein appreciating asset nach einer Preissenkung zu kaufen.

  

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Kannibalisierung?

Tesla’s Higher-End Sales Erode in Key Market Amid Model 3 Gains

A 54% decline in California registrations of Model S adds pressure on the auto maker to boost sales of its lower-priced compact car

Registrations of new Model S sedans in the second quarter plummeted 54% to 1,205 in California, according to the Dominion Cross-Sell report, which compiles data from state motor-vehicle records. The Golden State is a strong indicator of demand as Tesla’s largest U.S. market, representing 40% of Model S registrations in the country last year, according to auto-sales tracker Edmunds.com Inc.

The new data from research firm Dominion Enterprises indicates the stylish sedan that arguably changed car buyers’ view of electric cars is losing its luster. Tesla is increasingly dependent on sales of the smaller Model 3, which starts at about $35,000, less than half the price of the most basic Model S.

Registrations of Tesla’s expensive Model X sport-utility vehicle also fell by about 40% in California during the quarter. Model 3 registrations, by contrast, nearly doubled in the state to 16,372. Registrations, which tend to lag sales by weeks, provide insight into where deliveries take place.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-eroding-sales-of-higher-end-vehicles-amid-model- 3-gains-11563905728


  

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Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results

even after the company reported record second-quarter deliveries.

Here were the main numbers in the Palo Alto, California–based company’s report:

Revenue: $6.35 billion vs. $6.44 billion expected

Adj. loss: $1.12 vs. 31 cents per share expected

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-2q-2019-results-184241081.html



  

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>Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
>
>even after the company reported record second-quarter
>deliveries.
>
>Here were the main numbers in the Palo Alto, California–based
>company’s report:
>
>Revenue: $6.35 billion vs. $6.44 billion expected
>
>Adj. loss: $1.12 vs. 31 cents per share expected
>
>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-2q-2019-results-184241081.html
>
>
>
>

Brutales Quarter.

  

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>>Tesla misses expectations for Q2 results
>>
>>even after the company reported record second-quarter
>>deliveries.
>>
>>Here were the main numbers in the Palo Alto,
>California–based
>>company’s report:
>>
>>Revenue: $6.35 billion vs. $6.44 billion expected
>>
>>Adj. loss: $1.12 vs. 31 cents per share expected
>>
>>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-2q-2019-results-184241081.html
>
>Brutales Quarter.

Ausführlich hier:

https://ir.tesla.com/press-releases

  

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Tesla Breaks Records But Doesn’t Break Even

Tesla Inc.’s earnings calls have lately taken on the trappings of office going-away parties.

Just before the Q&A portion of Wednesday evening’s second-quarter call, CEO Elon Musk announced that JB Straubel, the company’s veteran chief technology officer, would step down to become a senior advisor. This was at least said up front, as opposed to the by-the-way announcement of the CFO’s departure at the very end of an earnings call in January. Still, news that the man second only to Musk in his identification with Tesla is stepping back now, and after a string of other departures, is even more jarring. Tesla’s stock, down 11% after hours already, dipped further on this news.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/tesla-breaks-records-but-doesnt-breakeven/ 2019/07/24/f1e0dc7c-ae76-11e9-9411-a608f9d0c2d3_story.html

  

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für ein visionäres projekt wie tesla, ist umsatz-und qualitätsentwicklung vorerst alles was zählt. profit kommt erst, wenn der boden trocken ist.
wer visionen nicht nachvollziehen kann, wird vermutlich noch längere zeit beim kopfschütteln bleiben müssen. (amazon-syndrom!)

  

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>für ein visionäres projekt wie tesla, ist umsatz-und
>qualitätsentwicklung vorerst alles was zählt. profit kommt
>erst, wenn der boden trocken ist.
>wer visionen nicht nachvollziehen kann, wird vermutlich noch
>längere zeit beim kopfschütteln bleiben müssen.
>(amazon-syndrom!)
>
>

Mit dem Unterschied, dass Bezos nie seine Integrität über board warf. Musk hingegen muss in einem realitätsverzerrenden Tunnel gefahren sein.

  

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>Mit dem Unterschied, dass Bezos nie seine Integrität über board warf. Musk hingegen muss in einem realitätsverzerrenden Tunnel gefahren sein.<


stimmt, aber genialität hat eben auch ihre individuellen facetten.

  

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>>Mit dem Unterschied, dass Bezos nie seine Integrität über
>board warf. Musk hingegen muss in einem realitätsverzerrenden
>Tunnel gefahren sein.<
>
>
>stimmt, aber genialität hat eben auch ihre individuellen
>facetten.

ein reality distorsion field wie bei Steve Jobs

  

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>ein reality distorsion field wie bei Steve Jobs


kann man so sagen, wobei ein produkt allemal besser und früher präsentierbar ist, als eine dienstleistung.

  

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>Tesla Co-Founder Leaves CTO Job After $30 Million in Share
>Sales
>
> J.B. Straubel is becoming adviser after 15 years with
>company
> Executive offloaded stock on eight occasions since November
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/tesla-s-cto-straubel-to-step-down-rema in-adviser-musk-says

Was mir nicht eingeht ist, wie wollen sie bei dem Capex cut wettbewerbsfähig bleiben?

  

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>>Tesla Co-Founder Leaves CTO Job After $30 Million in
>Share
>>Sales
>>
>> J.B. Straubel is becoming adviser after 15 years with
>>company
>> Executive offloaded stock on eight occasions since
>November
>>
>>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/tesla-s-cto-straubel-to-step-down-rema in-adviser-musk-says
>
>Was mir nicht eingeht ist, wie wollen sie bei dem Capex cut
>wettbewerbsfähig bleiben?


Weit unter Abschreibungen wird nicht dauerhaft so bleiben können.

  

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>für ein visionäres projekt wie tesla, ist umsatz-und
>qualitätsentwicklung vorerst alles was zählt. profit kommt
>erst, wenn der boden trocken ist.
>wer visionen nicht nachvollziehen kann, wird vermutlich noch
>längere zeit beim kopfschütteln bleiben müssen.
>(amazon-syndrom!)
>
>

Das ist das klassische amerikanische Prinzip. Market share auf Teufel komm raus erreichen, dadurch Mitbewerber vernichten und dann langsam das Monopol ausspielen. Wurde schon x-mal vorgezeigt. In Europa hat halt niemand die Nerven - oder besser gesagt die Investoren die da mithalten - im Hintergrund. Da will man immer organisch - mit positiven Cashflow - wachsen. Was aber leider oft zu langsam ist.

  

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In Europa hat halt niemand die Nerven - oder
>besser gesagt die Investoren die da mithalten


Ganz genau - kein Management von VW, BMW etc. hätte es lange überlebt solche Milliarden zu verbrennen wie Tesla.

  

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>Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Yeah, it's like, this is a speculation and it's my opinion, but so what I think say long-term demand is for Model 3, it's probably 15,000 units a week globally something like that.

!?!
Da fehlt ein wenig auf World domination...

  

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>>Q2 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
>
>Yeah, it's like, this is a speculation and it's my opinion,
>but so what I think say long-term demand is for Model 3, it's
>probably 15,000 units a week globally something like that.
>
>!?!
>Da fehlt ein wenig auf World domination...



Ok. 2 Mio. Autos meint er selbst (siehe unten). Warum soll das Unternehmen also fast soviel wert sein wie BMW et.al?


The demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on the order of three quarters of a million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million per year for Model Year, so they combined is like maybe two million from those two vehicles, and then S/X is like there may be 80,000 to 100,000 a year. So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume in 3 and Y. And then you could throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and a semi, but it just gets smaller and smaller. So they are great products, but they’re -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long-term.

  

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>Ok. 2 Mio. Autos meint er selbst (siehe unten). Warum soll das
>Unternehmen also fast soviel wert sein wie BMW et.al?


Bei 2 Mio. bestünde immerhin die Chance in die Bewertung (40,9 Mrd) hineinzuwachsen,z.B 2 Mio mit 2000 USD Gewinn pro Fahrzeug = KGV 10

  

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>
>>Ok. 2 Mio. Autos meint er selbst (siehe unten). Warum soll
>das
>>Unternehmen also fast soviel wert sein wie BMW et.al?
>
>
>Bei 2 Mio. bestünde immerhin die Chance in die Bewertung (40,9
>Mrd) hineinzuwachsen,z.B 2 Mio mit 2000 USD Gewinn pro
>Fahrzeug = KGV 10


BMW hat im Vorjahr 2,5 Millionen Fahrzeuge verkauft. Von der Größenordnung her würde es schon passen. Nur daß man bei Tesla den Gewinn heute noch diskontieren muß, während er bei BMW bereits ausgeschüttet werden kann.

  

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>>
>>>Ok. 2 Mio. Autos meint er selbst (siehe unten). Warum
>soll
>>das
>>>Unternehmen also fast soviel wert sein wie BMW et.al?
>
>>
>>
>>Bei 2 Mio. bestünde immerhin die Chance in die Bewertung
>(40,9
>>Mrd) hineinzuwachsen,z.B 2 Mio mit 2000 USD Gewinn pro
>>Fahrzeug = KGV 10
>
>
>BMW hat im Vorjahr 2,5 Millionen Fahrzeuge verkauft. Von der
>Größenordnung her würde es schon passen. Nur daß man bei Tesla
>den Gewinn heute noch diskontieren muß,


Und der Diskontfaktor in Anbetracht der Risiken deutlich zweistellig sein muß.

  

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>BMW hat im Vorjahr 2,5 Millionen Fahrzeuge verkauft. Von der
>Größenordnung her würde es schon passen. Nur daß man bei Tesla
>den Gewinn heute noch diskontieren muß, während er bei BMW
>bereits ausgeschüttet werden kann.

Wahre Geschichte: eine Firma veranstaltet für die Entwickler von e-mobility Lösungen in Deutschland einen Kundentag. Raum ist gefüllt mit allen Deutschen Herstellern, wichtigen Zulieferern ungefähr 80 Leute.

Frage eines der Vortragenden:"und wer von ihnen ist mit einem Elektroauto da?". Keiner zeigt auf...

Ich glaube um die deutschen Hersteller muss man sich Sorge machen...

  

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>Frage eines der Vortragenden:"und wer von ihnen ist mit einem
>Elektroauto da?". Keiner zeigt auf...
>
>Ich glaube um die deutschen Hersteller muss man sich Sorge
>machen...

Ja, ich habe es mir auch gestern gedacht, wie mit großem Tamtam der lange angekündigte vollelektrische Mini präsentiert worden ist. Der ist von den Daten her ungefähr am Stand vom E-Golf, der aber schon seit einigen Jahren am Markt ist ... man merkt ihm so richtig an, daß es ein umgebauter Verbrenner und kein eigenständiges Elektroauto ist.

Zum Beispiel ist die (halbe) Batterie zwischen Fahrer und Beifahrersitz, wo halt zufällig Platz war, weil beim Verbrenner dort das Getriebe wäre. Also wie der Umbau einer besseren Bastlerwerkstätte.

  

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>Ja, ich habe es mir auch gestern gedacht, wie mit großem
>Tamtam der lange angekündigte vollelektrische Mini präsentiert
>worden ist. Der ist von den Daten her ungefähr am Stand vom
>E-Golf, der aber schon seit einigen Jahren am Markt ist ...
>man merkt ihm so richtig an, daß es ein umgebauter Verbrenner
>und kein eigenständiges Elektroauto ist.
>
>Zum Beispiel ist die (halbe) Batterie zwischen Fahrer und
>Beifahrersitz, wo halt zufällig Platz war, weil beim
>Verbrenner dort das Getriebe wäre. Also wie der Umbau einer
>besseren Bastlerwerkstätte.


Was soll der kosten?

  

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>>Ja, ich habe es mir auch gestern gedacht, wie mit großem
>>Tamtam der lange angekündigte vollelektrische Mini
>präsentiert
>>worden ist. Der ist von den Daten her ungefähr am Stand
>vom
>>E-Golf, der aber schon seit einigen Jahren am Markt ist
>...
>>man merkt ihm so richtig an, daß es ein umgebauter
>Verbrenner
>>und kein eigenständiges Elektroauto ist.
>>
>>Zum Beispiel ist die (halbe) Batterie zwischen Fahrer und
>>Beifahrersitz, wo halt zufällig Platz war, weil beim
>>Verbrenner dort das Getriebe wäre. Also wie der Umbau
>einer
>>besseren Bastlerwerkstätte.
>
>
>Was soll der kosten?

"ab" 33.000€
Wird sicher seine Käufer finden, weil letztlich ist der Mini ein lässiges Auto, zu dem ein E-Antrieb gut passt. Aber 235km Reichweite nach WLTP, das traut sich sonst kaum noch ein Hersteller neu anzukündigen. Der Renault Zoe ist gerade bei 300 Kilometer und nach dem Facelift im Herbst werden es 390 sein ...

  

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>>>Ja, ich habe es mir auch gestern gedacht, wie mit
>großem
>>>Tamtam der lange angekündigte vollelektrische Mini
>>präsentiert
>>>worden ist. Der ist von den Daten her ungefähr am
>Stand
>>vom
>>>E-Golf, der aber schon seit einigen Jahren am Markt
>ist
>>...
>>>man merkt ihm so richtig an, daß es ein umgebauter
>>Verbrenner
>>>und kein eigenständiges Elektroauto ist.
>>>
>>>Zum Beispiel ist die (halbe) Batterie zwischen Fahrer
>und
>>>Beifahrersitz, wo halt zufällig Platz war, weil beim
>>>Verbrenner dort das Getriebe wäre. Also wie der Umbau
>>einer
>>>besseren Bastlerwerkstätte.
>>
>>
>>Was soll der kosten?
>
>"ab" 33.000€
>Wird sicher seine Käufer finden, weil letztlich ist der Mini
>ein lässiges Auto, zu dem ein E-Antrieb gut passt. Aber 235km
>Reichweite nach WLTP, das traut sich sonst kaum noch ein
>Hersteller neu anzukündigen. Der Renault Zoe ist gerade bei
>300 Kilometer und nach dem Facelift im Herbst werden es 390
>sein ...


Ein Spaß-Zweitauto.

  

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>
>>BMW hat im Vorjahr 2,5 Millionen Fahrzeuge verkauft. Von
>der
>>Größenordnung her würde es schon passen. Nur daß man bei
>Tesla
>>den Gewinn heute noch diskontieren muß, während er bei
>BMW
>>bereits ausgeschüttet werden kann.
>
>Wahre Geschichte: eine Firma veranstaltet für die Entwickler
>von e-mobility Lösungen in Deutschland einen Kundentag. Raum
>ist gefüllt mit allen Deutschen Herstellern, wichtigen
>Zulieferern ungefähr 80 Leute.
>
>Frage eines der Vortragenden:"und wer von ihnen ist mit einem
>Elektroauto da?". Keiner zeigt auf...
>
>Ich glaube um die deutschen Hersteller muss man sich Sorge
>machen...


Bisher warst du zuversichtlich daß sie Tesla fertigmachen?

  

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Analyst Commentary:
Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst -
Notes TSLA posted record deliveries and still could not produce a profit - as the adj loss of $~290M will bring back profitability concerns that had momentarily drifted away - notes also that $600M+ FCF was flattered by unsustainable levels of capex (<5% of sale) and WC (+$287M).
Cautions that sequential pressure on profits + cash flow is likely to increase given: 1) demand pull forward (US incentives) 2) deteriorating mix / price across all models 3) WC unwind / sequential capex increases - while loss of JB Straubel is the largest executive departure yet for a company that has, unfortunately, heard this song before.
Target is $200
Maintains an Underperform rating
JMP analyst Joseph Osha - lowers target
Notes even leaving aside the impact of lower regulatory credits, gross margin disappointed, with the GAAP outcome of 14.5% well below firm's forecast and Street expectations - noting vehicle production of 87,000 was below output capacity, mostly because of low utilization on S and X production, which is now running only a single shift - the resulting fixed cost under-absorption was a challenge (and weighed on margin).
Highlights however, that the company is having more success controlling operating costs - free cash flow at $600M was $100M was better than the firm had modeled, partially because of working capital recapture and partially because of the cost control efforts.
Target to $337 from $347; on 2.5x EV/revenue, 35x free cash flow, and 15x EV/EBITDA
Maintains a Market Outperform rating
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas -
Notes the simplified approach to guidance, which included less specificity on opex,and no range for 3Q unit volume outlook - and while Tesla targets positive GAAP profitability in 3Q and 4Q, it allowed for 'expected fluctuations' and 'temporary exceptions' around free cash flow generation - firm understands why the stock is giving up some of its recent gains on added uncertainty.
Firm continues to believe Tesla is fundamentally overvalued but strategically undervalued - firm still expects near term volatility in the stock to be driven by real-time data-points around demand in the US and international market for Tesla's electric vehicles, though also expect discussions around the nature and value of the company's technology to be an important part of the narrative going forward.
Target is $230
Maintains an Equal-weight rating
Needham analyst Rajvindra S. Gill -
Notes that while gross margins grew slightly q/q from 12.8% in Q1, they remain at depressed levels as significant ASP reductions across all vehicles hurt margins - the impact of which only partially offset by cost improvements.
Notes the company reaffirmed its 360-400k FY19 delivery target and expects q/q delivery growth in 3Q & 4Q and expects to break even in Q3 and turn a profit in Q4 - though notes the firm is cautious on TSLA's ability to fulfill these goals as the ramp requires a significant snapback in 2H19.
Maintains an Underperform rating
Nomura/Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle - lowers target
Notes profitability metrics underwhelmed - as Automotive gross margin declined sequentially and non-GAAP loss-per-share missed revised Street estimates by over ($0.75).
Firm doubt this quarter will inspire enough confidence to get the stock working - expects investors may question the continued deceleration in investment given that the company recently completed a capital raise and is in the midst of an aggressive global expansion of its manufacturing footprint.
Target to $270 from $300
Maintains a Neutral rating
Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander E. Potter - lowers target
Highlights forward-looking metrics related to revenue (orders, deliveries, etc.) are all trending in the right direction - suggests these are the most important components of the story - the post-market selloff was driven initially by mix-related concerns (and the resulting pressure on gross margin) - and Tesla's CTO subsequently resigned on the earnings call, and the selling pressure intensified.
Believes it will take time for Tesla to prove that JB Straubel's departure does not portend ominous developments down the road - but ultimately, firm thinks management turnover will only matter if Tesla's financial metrics never improve.
Target to $386 from $396; 18x FY22E EV/EBITDA, after capex, discounted at 15%
Maintains an Overweight rating

  

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"Automobilindustrie schlittert immer tiefer in die Krise"

Die Industrie in der Eurozone schrumpft so stark wie seit sieben Jahren nicht mehr. Deutschlands Autoindustrie belastet laut dem Chefökonom des Instituts IHS Markit den Sektor am stärksten.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5668102/Automobilindustrie-schlittert -immer-tiefer-in-die-Krise

  

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Tesla is 'spooling up production line rapidly' in Buffalo, according to Musk tweet

Tesla Inc.'s "Gigafactory 2" in Buffalo was an afterthought in the company's quarterly earnings release last week, garnering not a single mention in written materials or in executives' remarks to investors. Tesla CEO Elon Musk had plenty to say Tuesday ... albeit in just a few sentences. Responding to a question on Twitter, Musk said his company is "Spooling up production line rapidly" and hoping to manufacture at least 1,000 of its signature solar roof products per week by late 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/dac652a8-0652-3593-8e76-b7cbe0773766/tesla-is-%26%2339%3Bspoo ling-up.html

  

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https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/someone-tell-the-president-tesla-s-musk-promis ed-china-320m-tax-revenue-a-year-15036212

Someone Tell the President: Tesla's Musk Promised China $320M Tax Revenue a Year

1) Tesla released its 10Q for Q2


2) Anton Wahlman found some interesting tidbits buried in it. Here’s the first: Someone Tell the President: Tesla's Musk Promised China $320M Tax Revenue a Year. Excerpt:



So let's see what this means:



1. Tesla gets $713 million in U.S. subsidies per quarter.



2. Tesla moves production from the U.S. to China.



3. Tesla invests $2.1 billion in a Chinese factory.



4. Tesla promises China $320 million in annual tax revenue.



5. If Tesla can't pay, China nabs the factory.



U.S. taxpayer funds -- and technology transfer -- secured!



I can only imagine what President Donald Trump would say if General Motors or Ford did this. He would be up in arms, burning up a tweetstorm.



Is Trump aware that Tesla is moving production to China, collecting huge U.S. government subsidies, and reallocating a minimum of $320 million of those subsidies to the Chinese government? And if Tesla can't pay, China just nabs the factory?



3) Here’s the 2nd: Tesla Reveals In Its 10-Q That It Doesn't Yet Have The Required Manufacturing License For China. Excerpt:



Tesla filed its 10-Q for the June 2019 quarter, and it contains a startling admission that should make every investor seek urgent clarification.


On page 56, it reveals that it does not yet have “manufacturing licenses” for its China factory.


In the 10-K from February 19, it spoke only of “uncertainties, including regulatory approval.”.


This new warning in the 10-Q filed today, is more consistent with the warning that the then-CEO of BYTON said about Tesla’s Chinese situation following his CES keynote in January.


Why did Tesla suddenly feel the urge to disclose that it doesn’t yet have a manufacturing license for China, when it failed to disclose that in the 10-K in February?

  

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I met a Tesla bull (hedge fund) to debate the short case. I was on the short side (i'm short) and he was a long (owns the stock in size). This person was intellectually honest, importantly didn't like Musk's antics or believe in his BS, and owned the stock for substantive reasons so I take his views more seriously than the typical long. Here were his pushbacks to the short thesis. I'd be curious in people's views:

1. On underlying demand + profitability: He believes that at the current price level there is demand for 300k - 350k cars in the US + select geographies in 2019. But he thinks that the price of the battery pack, which makes up the majority of the cost of this car, is coming down ~10-20% per year based on economies of scale related to production, productivity improvements (similar to semiconductors) and declining lithium pricing. He bases this on conversations with Panasonic and others in the EV battery pack value chain. His research also suggests that Tesla's initial batch of cars was horrifyingly over budget (due to inexperience in manufacturing) and that the cost of making the rest of the car will come down ~5% this year and probably another 5% next year at the least. He wouldn't be surprised if it comes down closer to 10% this year. That means the total cost of the car will probably come down ~low double digits this year and continue to fall as the cost of the battery falls over the next 5 years. A lower cost car will, in turn, be reinvested in further price cuts. As the price of the car comes down to the low 30k range, the addressable market will expand by many multiples since most Americans (and people in Europe) buy cars at an average price in the low 30k range, not in the high 30k range where it is now. Model 3 pricing will probably be in the low 30k range in 2021 if battery and manufacturing costs come down in line with his projections but 2020 growth should be driven by lower pricing to the mid 30k range as costs fall this year as well. His overarching point is "of course they are losing $$$ now. They are just trying to buy time to get to a point where they can offer a car in the low 30k range which is the price range that most people buy cars in. That comes when a) battery prices fall sufficiently, which they are rapidly and b) as Tesla get better at manufacturing, which they are already".

2. On recent cap-ex cut: He sees people making the argument that cutting cap-ex is a sign that demand is drying up. He thinks this is mistaken. His research on Tesla and their EV manufacturing process suggests its much less capital intensive than a ICE manufacturer. That's because the # of moving parts in the car is 7-10 vs. over 300 for an ICE guy. This means that adding incremental lines and variants is much simpler and less cap-ex heavy than it is for an ICE manufacturer. He believes Tesla can add lines in California and Fremont for roughly 20% of what an ICE manufacturer can add a line for and that currently lines are at ~65% of max utilization so there is room to grow production without that much incremental cap-ex. He says that most people are so stuck looking at ICE manufacturers and comping Tesla's cap-ex needs and margins to those players, that they forget that they are 100% EV player and that the EV cost structure is completely different to the cost structure of an ICE manufacturer. This all implies that the cut in cap-ex does not signify a decline in demand.

3. Competition: He points to the fact that every competitor to Tesla in the EV market has significantly worse range and that range is the biggest issue customers have when buying an EV. He sees the arguments that bears make that Tesla's battery is a commodity because they buy it from Panasonic and anyone can do that. But he points out that if the battery was a commodity, everyone would have the same range. His research suggests that Tesla buys commodity battery packs and then rengineers them physically (by adding hardware) and software that makes them much more efficient. This has taken time and effort and range continues to improve with new variants. He says that other EVs are years behind and Tesla is extending their lead. This will always make Tesla's car more attractive to buyers as long as the price is in line with competitors.

4. Margins: Believes that auto gross margins will hit 30% by 2021. In Q2, auto gross margins ex. reg credits went up by 200bps from 15.2% to 17.2%. This was with the impact of price cuts - this happened because a) more cars were sold, b) the price of the battery is falling and c) they are improving their production process. As the price of the battery falls further and Tesla improves their manufacturing process, margins should go up to the low 20s assuming volume stays where it is (95k cars per quarter). If volume grows, margins should improve given the scale benefits of amortizing the fixed cost. Margins should continue to ramp higher as the Company recognizes FSD revenue which he believes they will start recognizing in Q4 '19. As prices fall, he believes margins should ramp even faster as volumes should accelerate quickly.

Whitney Tilson

  

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>I met a Tesla bull (hedge fund) to debate the short case. I
>was on the short side (i'm short) and he was a long (owns the
>stock in size). This person was intellectually honest,
>importantly didn't like Musk's antics or believe in his BS,
>and owned the stock for substantive reasons so I take his
>views more seriously than the typical long. Here were his
>pushbacks to the short thesis. I'd be curious in people's
>views:

Here goes:

Underlying demand and profitability: First, underlying demand. Once the overall performance of a BEV (battery-electric vehicle) is close enough to a gasoline/diesel engine car, it all comes down to price and lifecycle total cost. The key thing to understand here is that while performance is not yet there for most people, it’s there for some people, and that the degree of this demand is almost entirely dependent on government mandates, subsidies and other incentives. If those are low or zero, the BEV market would be 0.1% of the total auto market. But if the government takes those to the extreme, the share could be 50% (Norway) or 100% (with a strict mandate). So, once you tell me what your assumptions are for the government to dictate the competitive environment, I can tell you how large the market will be.



As for profitability and the cost of batteries, this argument is insane. The correct analogy is this: 5G will increase data speeds etc by, say, 10 times. Does that mean that Verizon’s profitability will now increase by 10x? The next chip from Intel will be 2x faster. Does that mean that Intel’s profits will increase by 2x?



So what if battery prices will be going down by 10% or 20% or whatever? If battery prices are going down by 20% for Tesla, chances are they are going down for all other automakers as well. Nobody in the industry is seriously arguing that Panasonic has some special cost curve here, that doesn’t apply equally to Samsung, LG, SKI, CATL or BYD.



On recent capex cut: The argument that Tesla has some sort of special advantage in manufacturing cars is equally insane. The comparison is not between a BEV and an ICE car. It’s between Tesla making a BEV and another automaker making a BEV.



The Tesla Model 3 is around 11% of the plugin car market: http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-top-20-june-2019.html



Add together the Model X and S, and Tesla might be around 16% of the worldwide plugin car market.



It does not matter whether it’s cheaper to put together a BEV vs putting together an ICE car. Because if it’s cheaper to put together a BEV for Tesla, it’s also cheaper for all other automakers to do so. See the analogy with 4G vs 5G and the next-gen Intel chip.



For example, VW will soon have its first BEV-only factory in Germany. China already has them, with so many more being finished in only months from now, that I can’t keep count anymore. Why would Tesla have some sort of capex advantage against any of those dozens -- soon to be hundreds -- of BEV-only factories, even if as a general statement it’s cheaper to build a BEV-only factory?



Competition: The author does not seem aware that when comparing range, he is not comparing apples to apples. Tesla has optimized its cars for range. The competition has optimized for other things, all of which eat away at range:

· Serviceability of the battery pack.

· Making the battery pack survive a crash.

· Reducing the probability of a battery fire.

· Longevity of the battery pack.

· The car itself has less aerodynamic efficiency because it’s more practical that way.

· That goes for door handles and roof racks, for example.

· The car itself weighs more (Audi eTron 5,600 lbs for example) because it’s a sturdier build.

· The car can go off-road (Audi and Jaguar).



Obviously if you optimize a flimsily built lightweight car for long-range highway driving, you are going to get better range than if you build a heavier and more square car that will last longer and go off-road.



Still, even after adjusting for all of those factors, Tesla may still have an advantage against most or all competitors in terms of miles-per-kWh. But, it’s not nearly as big as the raw number suggests. You have to adjust for all of the factors outlined above. Tesla’s real advantage here is somewhere between zero and very small -- not material.



Margins: That depends on pricing, which in turn is going to be heavily dependent on what competitors do with their prices. Of course, if you assume that competition isn’t going to increase, and/or that those competitors will not cut prices in order to meet their quotas, indeed Tesla’s margins could go up. Considering that there are over 200 competitive models in the pipeline between now and the end of 2022, that proposition may work in the short term -- perhaps for the next quarter or two -- but probably not for much longer.



That actually goes to basic economics 101: In a highly competitive market -- let alone one with notorious oversupply, home-champion over-investment, and government-mandated price pressure thanks to minimum sales quotas, margins are doomed to be small, negative and shrinking. This goes for Tesla as well as all other suppliers.

  

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Nettes Video (Link im Text)

A friend’s take on battery pricing and quality testing:

Battery prices may or may not be falling from this point. Considering that all battery manufacturing has been fully automated already, the scale efficiencies beyond a certain limited point are very modest. There is not a lot of labor involved. You capture almost all automation/scale benefits already at a fairly small scale.


Three has been a lot of advancements in terms of battery PACK design. That includes thermal management (heating, cooling) and the way that the pack is integrated into the body of the car, how it handles a crash, and so forth. That’s where most of the cost reductions have originated in the last 5-10 years.


Most people I know in the auto industry say that the battery prices are not falling much from here, if at all. Any movement from here will be mostly dependent on raw material prices, such as cobalt and all the other ingredients that go into a battery. If those costs go down, battery prices go down. But not very much otherwise.



The overall cost of the vehicle will decline somewhat from here because of dedicated BEV production lines with slightly simplified assembly processes. See both Tesla and Volkswagen’s MEB-based factory in Zwickau, for example, as they are 100% BEV. Or see Audi’s factory in Brussels, which is also 100% BEV. In China, already dozens of examples, rapidly approaching hundreds.



Tesla has indeed pioneered some battery pack and software techniques. They have two good motors, with industry-leading efficiency. So let’s say that buys them 2% or even 3% on those parts. Who is a more efficient manufacturer overall? Who buys steel and aluminum at lower prices? Who buys tires and all other components at lower prices?



The other automakers can also afford to outright subsidize their BEVs, because they actually have profitable product lines (gasoline, diesel) from where they can subsidize.



This is Audi’s 100% electric car factory in Brussels, Belgium:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR0voji-vZk&t



You may ask yourself why Audi’s former production boss -- Peter Hochholdinger -- who left Audi 3 years ago to join Tesla -- left Tesla as soon as his 3 year contract was over. That was just over a month ago.



There is a world of difference between the way in which an Audi eTron is assembled, and the way in which a Tesla is assembled, from a quality and professionalism perspective. In addition, guess to what standards the Audi eTron was tested before being released for production, compared to the way a Tesla is tested (barely) before it goes into production. The level of quality control is in a different league.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Panasonic demanding battery price hike?

A JPN biz weekly is reporting that Pana CEO Tsuga was at GF1 in June (for the 3rd time this yr). According to the article, he apparently was there to demand price HIKE on batteries.

Here’s the Google Translate of the article: https://twitter.com/passthebeano/status/1157395375260483584

  

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Former NYSE Chief Warns of “False and Misleading Claims” From Tesla. Excerpt:



The former head of the New York Stock Exchange took direct aim at Tesla on Wednesday, warning that “false and misleading claims” by the automaker can make it difficult to determine what to believe.



The comments by Thomas Farley, who headed the NYSE from 2014 to 2018, came hours after a transparency website released documents showing federal regulators ordered Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk to stop making what were described as “misleading statements” about the safety of the Model 3 sedan.



“How do you even triage the false and misleading claims that come out of Tesla to decide which ones to take issue with,” Farley said during an appearance on CNBC.



2) Advocacy Groups Attack Tesla’s Use of Autopilot — Again. Excerpt:



Two of the most vocal critics of Tesla Inc.’s Autopilot feature renewed their calls for federal and state investigations of the EV maker, claiming the company is engaging in “dangerously misleading and deceptive practices.”



Consumer Watchdog and the Center for Auto Safety once again accused the California-based electric vehicle maker and CEO Elon Musk of putting lives in peril by making claims that the Autopilot technology available on all three models Tesla offers is a fully functional autonomous technology.



The two groups have renewed their efforts in the wake of the investigations of two Florida deaths earlier this year that involved drivers using Tesla’s Autopilot at the time their vehicle’s crashed.

  

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The latest head-scratcher is the company’s decision to once again offer free unlimited supercharging for its Model S and Model X buyers.

“Really need to bring this program to an end while being as fair as possible. It’s not sustainable long-term,” Musk wrote.

The only logical explanation for the 180-degree turn on free charging is that Tesla is desperate to sell Model X and Model S vehicles. As bears have argued for months, the low-margin Model 3 is eating into demand for these more profitable models.

Model S registrations were down 54% in California during Q2, according to Dominion Cross-Sell. Model X sales were down 40%. California is by far Tesla’s largest market, accounting for 40% of total Model S sales in 2018.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-unsustainable-free-supercharging-121628106.htm l

  

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Q der Ticker-Annex für bankrotte Aktien:

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-short-sellers-musk-20190408-story.h tml

$TslaQ has no leader, but it does have a hero. His name is Lawrence Fossi, a lawyer and New York money manager who contributed to the Twitter hashtag as well as investor site Seeking Alpha under the moniker Montana Skeptic — until he was exposed by Musk.

According to Fossi, after he was outed on Twitter last July, Musk personally called the small investment office he works for. Musk told his boss he wasn’t happy about the online activity and threatened to sue Fossi for defamation. (Tesla doesn’t dispute that Musk contacted the company.)

Meanwhile, Tesla’s public relations department sent emails to the media naming Fossi and encouraging reporters to call his boss — phone number included. The communications executive involved declined to discuss that matter.

“I had never before heard from Tesla or Elon Musk to correct anything I wrote,” Fossi said. “I would have been happy to correct anything that was wrong.”

Fossi said he didn’t take the lawsuit threat seriously, “but I couldn’t afford to drag my boss into this.” So he quit writing for Seeking Alpha and deactivated his Twitter account.

  

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I was very surprised to see that Walmart (WMT) sued Tesla (TSLA) yesterday: Walmart Says Tesla Solar Panels Set Fires Atop Stores. Excerpt:



Walmart is suing Tesla for breach of contract, contending that at least seven rooftop fires at the retailer’s stores between 2012 and 2018 were a result of problems with solar panels installed by the company.



The complaint asserted that Tesla engaged in “widespread, systemic negligence” and “failed to abide by prudent industry practices in installing, operating and maintaining its solar systems.” It said the panels were installed on the roofs of more than 200 of the 5,000 Walmart locations in the United States.



Representatives of Walmart and Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.



The panels were installed by Tesla’s solar business, which was absorbed when the electric-car maker acquired SolarCity in 2016. The Walmart complaint asserted that the company “adopted an ill-considered business model that required it to install solar panel systems haphazardly and as quickly as possible in order to turn a profit.”



Walmart is seeking damages from Tesla, as well as the removal of all the company’s solar power systems from its stores.



To be clear, I’m not at all surprised that the Tesla/SolarCity panels and/or their installation and maintenance are crap; rather, it’s that disputes like this are almost always settled out of court. Why would Tesla go to war against the largest company in the world (by revenue) and open itself up to charges like this (from the lawsuit)?



“On information and belief, when Tesla purchased SolarCity to bail out the flailing company (whose executives included two of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s first cousins), Tesla failed to correct SolarCity’s chaotic installation practices or to adopt adequate maintenance protocols, which would have been particularly important in light of the improper installation practices.” (Here are more excerpts from the suit.)



The fact that Tesla didn’t settle is a sign of two things I suspect: a) CEO Elon Musk rarely acknowledges bad news or mistakes and instead tries to hide problems; and b) Tesla is in a precarious financial position. When you’re losing money hand over fist and cash is tight, maybe it’s rational to get sued and pay more, as long as you can delay the payments by a year or two…

Whitney Tilson

  

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A friend pointed out that one reason Tesla didn’t settle with Walmart it that it would open the floodgates to every other customer with similar issues…



2) Which makes this post on Reddit from seven months ago seem more timely (this is the first I’ve heard of this):



whistleblower123456

7 months ago



If you want the truth here it is. Tesla has installed millions of defective amphenol connectors all over the u.s. These connectors are catching fire and burning down homes and businesses. They are hiding it with something called project titan where they are hiring thousands of people just to replace connectors. The problem is that they are testing it with infrared cameras to see if the connector heats up and only then replacing it. These connectors are defective meaning just because it passes one day it does not mean it wont fail the next even after testing. Tesla refuses to replace all of these connectors betting on insurance to cover any fires and only looking at homes when their monitoring platform reports arc faults. This is why they are dismantling the solar division with layoffs. Right now if you have tesla installed on your roof you may have a ticking time bomb ready to kill you in your sleep. If you have it on your business same thing. Don't believe me, google walmart fires. If you have tesla stock better prepare to sell it because when this gets out it is going to crash. They need to do the right thing and shut off all systems with these connectors and replace them with mc4. They wont because it would cost them hundreds of millions to do and hundreds of thousands of dollars on lost production. Do the right thing tesla.

Whitney Tilson

  

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David Einhorn demands Elon Musk resign over solar panel flap


David Einhorn
@davidein
· 4h
If @Tesla wants to save the human species, it should pay more attention to the
safety of its own customers. You shouldn’t have to be Walmart to have your
dangerous solar panels fixed. @Elonmusk


David Einhorn
@davidein
How many solar panels are still defective and could cause fires? @Tesla should
immediately notify the people who live in and work in buildings at risk. Secret
Project Titan is over the line. A recall should have happened long ago @USCPSC.
@Elonmusk should resign.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greenlights-einhorn-calls-for-elon-musk-to-resign-17214410 3.html

  

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Last year Tesla initiated 'Project Titan' — a stealth nationwide program to replace solar panel parts that could cause fires

Last summer Tesla initiated 'Project Titan,' an attempt to quietly replace defective solar panel parts nationwide, according to documents viewed by Business Insider.
Specifically, Tesla was replacing connectors and optimizers, parts that are meant to regulate the amount of energy flowing to a solar panel. Too much energy can cause a fire.

https://www.businessinsider.de/tesla-project-titan-replace-bad-solar-panel-parts-2019-8

  

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Tesla Wins China Tax Break, Sidestepping U.S. Trade Tensions

Tesla Inc. won exemption from a 10% Chinese tax on automotive sales, sidestepping trade tensions with the U.S. following Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s visit to the country.

The exemption, which typically is reserved for domestic makers of electric vehicles, affects all Tesla models sold in China, the nation’s industry ministry said Aug. 30 on its website. The electric-car maker’s shares jumped as much as 4.8% shortly after the open of regular trading.


https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-international/tesla-gets-exemption-from-ch inas-auto-purchase-tax-shares-gain

  

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From the moment I heard Musk boast about Tesla Insurance, I've thought the idea was preposterous.

Tesla is going to enter an enormously difficult industry and successfully compete against well-run giants like Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK-B) GEICO and Progressive (PGR) – an industry in which companies need years of experience to have the data to set prices appropriately... where even a small mistake can lead to huge losses? What a joke!

I suppose Tesla bulls would argue that Musk has successfully disrupted other big, tough industries, so why not give him the benefit of the doubt. But this is a bridge way too far for me...

So what's really going on here? I think another friend of mine nailed it:

It's typical Tesla.

They have convinced everyone to focus on the gross margin they make selling autos. Meanwhile, they run a services business at a huge loss – for example, they under-accrue warranty cost and expense the extra losses through service. Also, they subsidize new car sales by overpaying for trade-ins and run the loss through services. Ditto for insurance – it's another way for them to subsidize the customer without affecting auto gross margin.

Insurance also won't be that big. Let's say they lose 10% of premium – which would be a horrible insurance result. That might be $400 per car per year. The Tesla fleet is 500,000 – globally. If they get 10% of that, it's a $20 million cost – a rounding error in the scheme of Tesla's already upside down P&L (or should I say just L?).

Plus they can reduce losses by giving insurance customers priority on service appointments and spare parts. Tesla won't care how this further irritates the rest of their customers, who already have to put up with an inconvenient repair situation.

Tesla's insurance partner, State National, is merely a "fronting" company. They take 4 or 5 points off the top, but don't assume the underwriting risk. No one knows who the money behind them is. My guess is that the losses one-way-or-another find their way back to Tesla.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Nettes Video. Der Journalist am Beifahrersitz (Tom Voelk) "can't wipe the grin of his face"

The investor's guide to the Porsche Taycan

Here are the essential things that investors should know about the Porsche Taycan launch:



1. It looks a lot closer to the 2015 concept car than the masked test cars suggested. Most people seem to think it looks absolutely stunning. This alone tends to be a major factor in any car’s sales success -- regardless of which kind of powertrain it has.

2. The base price of the version that you can actually buy in 2019 and early 2020 is $153,510, plus a $1,350 delivery charge. There will be less expensive versions available later in 2020 and beyond.

3. At these prices, the Porsche should skim away many of Tesla’s highest-end buyers, for whom price doesn’t matter as much as bragging rights. This is a far better-looking car than a Tesla, and obviously will have much better build quality. Would you rather show off a Tesla or the Porsche Taycan at the country club or the valet at your fancy restaurant? The answer is obvious and not remotely close. Besides, the Tesla spends most of its time in the repair shop anyway, so it rarely makes it to the country club anymore.

4. The range is said to be 280 miles on the WLTP test cycle (Europe). I typically apply a 14% discount factor for the US EPA test cycle. That brings us to about 240 miles. I suppose that’s the best-case scenario for the various versions for the U.S. market. I imagine most versions will fall in the 200-240 mile range.

5. Some will scoff at 200-240 miles of range, which is less than the Kia, Hyundai, Nissan or Chevrolet electric cars, for example. But ask yourself: How far from the Porsche buyer’s home is the country club and the fancy restaurant? I am guessing, no more than 20-40 miles. The Porsche buyer doesn’t take road trips, but rather flies if the trip would otherwise have been more than a couple of hours. There is no real need for “range” beyond 100-200 miles if your life exists almost exclusively within a 40-mile radius of your house.

6. The best video I have seen that communicates the actual *driving* experience is this one, from Tom Voelk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJloC3witfY Notice the drifting.

7. The best video I have seen that actually describes the technical aspects of the Taycan is this one, from Dan Edmunds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_vUaFb0fC8



Bottom line: Tesla has already lost Model X and S sales to the Audi eTron and Jaguar iPace. Model X and S sales are down materially this year. There isn't all that much more market share left to lose for Tesla Model X and S, as their sales are on a downward dive on their way to close to zero, but this is an example of the next drop in the water torture that’s starting to hit Tesla. There are over 200 competing EVs to come in the near future, each a hyena taking a bite out of the Tesla wildebeest flesh.

Whitney Tilson

  

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>Wozu das zweistufige Getriebe an der Hinterachse habe ich
>jedoch noch nicht durchschaut?

Zwecks dem Wirkungsgrad und Beschleunigung über den großen Geschwindigkeitsbereich. Drehmoment ist ja genug da.

Das Auto wird dem Tesla im margenstarkem Top-level Marktanteile kosten.

  

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>>Wozu das zweistufige Getriebe an der Hinterachse habe
>ich
>>jedoch noch nicht durchschaut?
>
>Zwecks dem Wirkungsgrad und Beschleunigung über den großen
>Geschwindigkeitsbereich. Drehmoment ist ja genug da.


Wirkungsgrad bei Elektromotor ist drehzahlabhängig? Dachte der ist ziemlich konstant.

  

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>Wirkungsgrad bei Elektromotor ist drehzahlabhängig? Dachte der ist ziemlich konstant.

Verglichen mit einem Verbrennungsmotor ist er immer sehr hoch. Aber es gibt schon noch Nuancen, abhängig von Drehzahl und Last.



Quelle: http://www.energie.ch/asynchronmaschine

  

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>>>Wozu das zweistufige Getriebe an der Hinterachse
>habe
>>ich
>>>jedoch noch nicht durchschaut?
>>
>>Zwecks dem Wirkungsgrad und Beschleunigung über den
>großen
>>Geschwindigkeitsbereich. Drehmoment ist ja genug da.
>
>
>Wirkungsgrad bei Elektromotor ist drehzahlabhängig? Dachte der
>ist ziemlich konstant.

Auch bei Elektromotoren gibt es ineffiziente Betriebspunkt. Damit man da nicht reinfällt verwendet man Getriebe, siehe zb auch
https://www.ingenieur.de/technik/fachbereiche/antriebstechnik/das-getriebe-in-elektrofahr zeugen-zukunft/

  

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>>>>Wozu das zweistufige Getriebe an der Hinterachse
>>habe
>>>ich
>>>>jedoch noch nicht durchschaut?
>>>
>>>Zwecks dem Wirkungsgrad und Beschleunigung über den
>>großen
>>>Geschwindigkeitsbereich. Drehmoment ist ja genug da.
>>
>>
>>Wirkungsgrad bei Elektromotor ist drehzahlabhängig? Dachte
>der
>>ist ziemlich konstant.
>
>Auch bei Elektromotoren gibt es ineffiziente Betriebspunkt.
>Damit man da nicht reinfällt verwendet man Getriebe, siehe zb
>auch
>https://www.ingenieur.de/technik/fachbereiche/antriebstechnik/das-getriebe-in-elektrofahr zeugen-zukunft/


Sehr interessant. Aber wo doch alle Welt weiß das Elektrofahrzeuge viel simpler sind etc.

  

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>>>Wirkungsgrad bei Elektromotor ist drehzahlabhängig?
>Dachte
>>der
>>>ist ziemlich konstant.
>>
>>Auch bei Elektromotoren gibt es ineffiziente
>Betriebspunkt.
>>Damit man da nicht reinfällt verwendet man Getriebe, siehe
>zb
>>auch
>>https://www.ingenieur.de/technik/fachbereiche/antriebstechnik/das-getriebe-in-elektrofahr zeugen-zukunft/
>
>
>Sehr interessant. Aber wo doch alle Welt weiß das
>Elektrofahrzeuge viel simpler sind etc.

Im Detail ist wie immer alles sehr kompliziert...

  

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August Numbers Are In For Tesla

Summary
We just got Insideevs US numbers for August, and we now have official country reporting for most European countries.

We are still missing numbers from China, Canada and UK, just to mention some important ones.

And yes, with Tesla usually delivering near 50% of the quarter in the last month, the swing factor remains as huge as it ever does this time in the quarter.

With all that said, it looks like Q3 could be very similar to Q2, when 95,200 units were sold. I have 97,188 for Q3 as of now.

Existing markets are on the decline, with help coming from new Model 3 countries such as UK and Australia. Pricing also will likely be weaker, hurting margins.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289683-august-numbers-tesla-path-disappointing-97000-q3

  

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How Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity

This is perhaps the most damning article I've ever read about Musk and Tesla, both for the content as well as the author: Bethany McLean is one of the best, most respected business journalists in the world, with a proven record from the financial crisis of sniffing out fraud (of which there is no shortage at Tesla). Excerpts:

The controversy over SolarCity, which has dovetailed with questions about Musk’s mountain of debt and profit shortfalls, offers a window into the mindset of America’s most outlandish CEO.
... In June 2014, SolarCity bought Silevo, a solar-panel manufacturer that had struck a deal with New York to build a factory in Buffalo. On a conference call, Musk boasted that the deal would enable SolarCity to install tens of gigawatts of panels every year—far beyond the company’s peak annual run rate of about one gigawatt. He spoke as if the technology were already proven. On its website, SolarCity predicted it would “achieve a breakthrough” in solar-power pricing thanks to “massive economies of scale.”

“It was shoot first and aim later,” says the former senior employee. “There was a lot of machismo going on: bigger, better, badder, faster.

... Even then, to those who looked closely, the cracks at SolarCity were becoming apparent. In 2014, key executives had started to leave. The Rives began to sell stock. SolarCity’s debt was soaring, and the yield on its bonds hit double digits, a sign that the market thought the company was in trouble. Goldman Sachs, one of Musk’s major bankers, called SolarCity the “worst positioned” company for capitalizing on future growth in the solar sector. One of the few things shoring up the company’s stock, according to a former investor, were the constant rumors that Musk was somehow going to bail it out.

In reality, the situation was even uglier than outsiders knew. As SolarCity struggled to raise money from institutional investors, it began offering individuals a chance to buy what it called Solar Bonds. (“Now you can get paid while driving the solar revolution,” the marketing material said.) But there were few takers—so other parts of the Musk empire took up the slack. According to the shareholder lawsuit, SpaceX acquired $255 million of the bonds. Musk himself bought $75 million of them, and the Rives acquired another $38 million. To raise the cash, Musk borrowed against both Tesla and SolarCity stock, increasing his personal credit lines from $85 million to $475 million. He also used his own reputation to shore up the stock: In February 2016, when SolarCity stock plunged to its lowest level in three years, Musk bought $10 million in shares. A week later, when the news became public, the stock soared by almost 25 percent.
At the same time, according to the shareholder lawsuit against Tesla, the company faced “significant liquidity concerns”—meaning it was running out of money. An accounting inquiry from the SEC noted that SolarCity was burning through cash—$659 million in the first quarter of 2016 alone. That February, at a Tesla board meeting, Musk proposed a solution: Tesla, he said, should acquire SolarCity.
The board balked. But Musk kept pushing. Two weeks later, he proposed the acquisition again. Once again, the board said no.

It was a hopelessly conflicted situation. Musk owned more than 20 percent of both SolarCity and Tesla. His brother, Kimbal, served on both boards, as did several investors, including Antonio Gracias, a close friend of Musk’s. As a judge in the shareholder lawsuit ruled, it is “reasonably conceivable” that Musk effectively controlled the Tesla board when he pushed it to acquire SolarCity.

... But over the years, many skeptics have come to see Musk’s stunts—from smoking pot during an interview to calling a diver who helped rescue kids trapped in a Thailand cave a “pedo guy”—as more unhinged than iconoclastic.

... Now the brewing problems at SolarCity threatened to give skeptics real ammunition against Musk—unless those problems could be buried. In May 2016, the Tesla board finally agreed to acquire the company for almost $5 billion, including the assumption of nearly $3 billion in SolarCity debt. On a conference call on June 22, the day after the deal was publicly announced, Musk told analysts and investors that the company had “the best technology out there for high-efficiency, low-cost solar panels.” He didn’t say anything about the liquidity crisis at SolarCity. Nor did he mention something else that shareholders allege the Tesla board came to learn as it did its due diligence on SolarCity: The cost per watt of solar modules being produced in Buffalo was actually projected to be 20 cents above the rest of the industry.

Whitney Tilson

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-musk-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity

  

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Allerdings ZeroHedge...

Analyst With $0 Price Target On Tesla Says Growth Story "Clearly Over" After August Delivery Estimates

McCabe wrote in a report Thursday: "While there is no reasonable justification for a structurally unprofitable and horribly managed company to enjoy a $40 billion market cap, proponents of the stock tout its growth. That story is clearly over."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-07/analyst-0-price-target-tesla-says-growth-story- clearly-over-after-august-delivery-0

  

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It’s Porsche Versus Tesla Facing Off in Germany’s Green Hell

It’s here that Porsche’s new Taycan Turbo S set the record as the fastest four-door electric car last month, clocking in at 7 minutes and 42 seconds. The feat wasn’t lost on a rival sitting thousands of miles away in California: Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk. Always one to relish a good fight, Musk picked up the gauntlet and has dispatched a Model S to the German hinterland to reclaim the bragging rights as king of the electric sedan.

“We welcome competition, it helps you to get better step by step. But of course you always have to compare apples with apples,” Porsche AG Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume told Bloomberg Friday on the sidelines of a panel discussion near the Frankfurt auto show.

The epic battle between incumbent and upstart has been infused with social-media feeds that have energized die-hard fans on either side of the Atlantic. Adding to the frenzy is former Formula One racing champion Nico Rosberg, who chimed in on Twitter offering to pilot the Tesla. Musk happily accepted in a tweeted reply, but it’s unclear who actually will be behind the wheel.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/porsche-versus-tesla-facing-off-141133430.html

  

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Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors,
by Edward Niedermeyer, which I highly recommend, irrespective of your view on the stock.

Niedermeyer has long been a Musk and Tesla skeptic, which certainly comes through in the book, but it’s not as one-sided as I expected. Tesla is an incredible entrepreneurial story, and this book covers it well.

“Ludicrous” will have tremendous appeal to car buffs but requires the reader’s faith that its assertions are reliable. Its sources have refused to be quoted out of fear of Mr. Musk. Mr. Niedermeyer says he conducted “hundreds of hours of interviews” with current and former Tesla employees, yet he acknowledges that “there are essentially no named sources in this book.” For instance, we meet “Tom,” said to possess detailed information about the company. Perhaps this information is solid. But people who aren’t identified can’t complain about being misquoted. It’s also ironic that, after not disclosing his sources, Mr. Niedermeyer goes on to slam Mr. Musk for not being open with the public.

Entertaining anecdotes abound in the book, from spats among Mr. Musk, his backers, critics and short-sellers, to publicity stunts that owe a debt to 19th-century magic shows. In one example, Tesla prototypes are rolled out to dazzle the press corps, only to then be taken behind a curtain, we are told, “to have gallons of ice water discreetly pumped through the battery.” (High-performance batteries tend quickly to overheat.) In another anecdote, a tricked-out car with a false-bottom structure makes it appear as if a depleted Tesla battery can be swapped out for a fresh one in mere minutes. All that’s missing is a lady being sawed in half.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Tesla Model 3 Is Now #1 Selling Car In The Netherlands

This is the kind of headline that gets Tesla bulls all hot and bothered, Tesla Model 3 Is Now #1 Selling Car In The Netherlands, but as my friend points out, it's meaningless:
>
> The reason for the Model 3's high sales numbers in The Netherlands is very well-known in the European EV community.
>
> It's the same phenomenon that was going on in Denmark in the months leading up to December 31, 2015, and in Hong Kong in March 31, 2017.
>
> You see, The Netherlands recently introduced a very hefty subsidy to someone who leases an electric company car -- but only until December 31, 2019. Take delivery by then, or see the price skyrocket on January 1.
>
> Then, combine this with the fact that the European EV quotas for the *other* automakers don't take into effect until -- you guessed it -- January 1, 2020, and they're unwilling to deliver all but the minimum number of EVs between now and the end of the year.
>
> So, combining those two facts, and -- voila! -- Tesla becomes the only entity willing to deliver EVs in any meaningful quantity in The Netherlands between August 1 and December 31, 2019.
>
> Of course, barring any change in legislation, starting January 1, 2020, Tesla's sales in The Netherlands will therefore fall by something along the lines of 99%.
>
> That's what happened in Denmark on January 1, 2016: Sales fell 99%.
>
> That's what happened in Hong-Kong on April 1, 2017: Sales fell 99%.
>
> Actually, The Netherlands have done variants of this "subsidy rush" before. In fact, it did it at the end of 2018, when it announced that it would have a huge subsidy -- but ONLY if you took delivery of the EV by December. As a result, in just the *month* of December 31, Jaguar sold 2,621 i-Pace units, which was 12.3% if the entire car market in The Netherlands that month. Not 12.3% of EVs. 12.3% of the entire light vehicle market. The Jaguar i-Pace.
>
> Then, what happened in January 2019, when the subsidy ended? Sales of the Jaguar i-Pace fell from 2,621 cars to... 15. Fifteen. That's a decline of 99.4%.
>
> So, yeah, Tesla is selling well right now because the government introduced a giant subsidy that expires on December 31, while all of the other automakers are disincentivized to deliver any EVs until January 1 -- at which point their sales will skyrocket, and Tesla's sales will fall by, I am estimating, the usual 99% that happens after their subsidy ends.
>
> There is no "lesson" here other than that if the government subsidizes something, more units are sold -- especially when another government incentive steers all other competitors to avoid selling said product until next January. Double effect. It inverts on January -- with double effect.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Der Teil, daß Tesla jetzt voll verkauft und die Subvention nutzt, ist verständlich und nachvollziehbar.

Warum die Europäischen Autofabrikanten das Geschäft lieber Tesla überlassen, statt selbst die Subvention zu genießen, ist mir dagegen unverständlich. Sicher gibt es aufgrund der Quoten den Anreiz, erst im Jänner zu verkaufen. Aber wenn die Subvention marktentscheidend ist, kommt das Warten ziemlich teuer; und wer im Dezember günstig einen Tesla gekauft hat, wird im Jänner auch keinen teuren Renault mehr kaufen.

  

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Tesla will in Osteuropa expandieren - Rechtlicher Ärger in USA

Tesla-Chef Elon Musk will bei der Europa-Expansion seines Elektroautokonzerns Tempo machen. Das Hoffnungsmodell 3 ist immer noch in Reihe von Ländern nicht zu haben.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5694892/Tesla-will-in-Osteuropa-expan dieren-Rechtlicher-Aerger-in-USA

  

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Aktie -7%

Tesla-Chef Musk werden Familiy-Business und Bereicherung vorgeworfen
Elon Musk, sein Bruder und zwei Cousins sollen von umstrittenen Tesla-Zukäufen profitiert haben. Das bringt Musk nun eine Klage ein

...

Musk selbst war der größte Aktionär von Solar City, er hat also vom Verkauf an Tesla ordentlich profitiert. Zudem wurde Solar City von einem Cousin des Seriengründers geleitet. Musk soll – so die Klage – verschwiegen haben, dass das Energieunternehmen zwei größere Kreditrückzahlungen zu stemmen habe und finanziell schwer angeschlagen war. Geldgeber war ausgerechnet Musks Raumfahrtgruppe Space X.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109019427/tesla-chef-musk-werden-familiy-business-un d-bereicherung-vorgeworfen

  

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>Aktie -7%
>
>Tesla-Chef Musk werden Familiy-Business und Bereicherung
>vorgeworfen
>Elon Musk, sein Bruder und zwei Cousins sollen von
>umstrittenen Tesla-Zukäufen profitiert haben. Das bringt Musk
>nun eine Klage ein
>
>...
>
>Musk selbst war der größte Aktionär von Solar City, er hat
>also vom Verkauf an Tesla ordentlich profitiert. Zudem wurde
>Solar City von einem Cousin des Seriengründers geleitet. Musk
>soll – so die Klage – verschwiegen haben, dass das
>Energieunternehmen zwei größere Kreditrückzahlungen zu stemmen
>habe und finanziell schwer angeschlagen war. Geldgeber war
>ausgerechnet Musks Raumfahrtgruppe Space X.
>
>https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109019427/tesla-chef-musk-werden-familiy-business-un d-bereicherung-vorgeworfen

Musk hat es ja immer wieder geschafft den Karren aus dem Dreck zu ziehen(kein Autopilot). Ob, es ihm diesmal wieder gelingt? Mit Klagen wird er ja bereits überschüttet.

  

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Für das „Wohl der Welt“ springt Elon Musk jetzt dem VW-Chef bei

VW-Chef Herbert Diess hat immer voller Respekt über Musk gesprochen. Das zahlt sich nun aus: Der Tesla-Chef springt Diess zur Seite und unterstützt ihn trotz der Anklage wegen Marktmanipulation.

...

Jetzt zahlt sich offenbar aus, dass der VW-Chef einen engen Draht zum Wettbewerber hält. Diess und Musk sollen sich regelmäßig miteinander unterhalten, die beiden Männer würden sich gut verstehen, heißt es in Unternehmenskreisen.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article200946246/Elon-Musk-Er-unterstuetzt-ausgerechnet-de n-VW-Chef.html

  

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Tesla Surges After Musk Tells Staff 100,000 Deliveries Possible

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. shares climbed the most since July after Elon Musk said in an email to employees that the carmaker has a chance to top the vehicle-delivery record it set in the second quarter.

“We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,” Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, wrote in reference to the quarter ending this month. “Net orders are tracking to reach about 110k, so demand is strong.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-surges-musk-tells-staff-181843827.html

  

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Tesla's Model 3 Retains Top Spot in Norway in Q3

Tesla's (TSLA) electric Model 3 continues to reign in Norway's auto market in Q3 as it sold 3,300 Model 3s during the period, surpassing Volkswagen's Golf by about 900 cars, Reuters reported Monday, citing registration data.

However, sales fell from the previous quarters of this year, when the company sold 6,123 in Q1 and 4,438 in Q2, the news outlet said, citing the Norwegian Road Federation.

Sales of the company's S and X models in Norway have taken a hit this year due to the preference for the cheaper Model 3, and to the increasing interest in the newly launched all-electric SUVs from Audi and Jaguar Land Rover, Reuters added.

  

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In yet another example of Elon Musk and Tesla's (TSLA) dangerous recklessness, the company released a "smart summon" feature as part of the version 10 software update that went out last week.

With it, Tesla owners can "summon" their cars from a maximum distance of 200 feet using their smartphones. Unfortunately, however, it's not yet ready for primetime. Numerous users are documenting fender benders, and it's only a matter of time before one of these unguided cars hits a person or runs over a baby.

Why would Tesla be so reckless? In part, it's in Musk's DNA. But more important, it allows the company to recognize some of the full self-driving revenue sitting on its balance sheet, in a desperate attempt to report better third-quarter numbers. What a total disgrace! My prediction: Regulators will quickly force Tesla to deactivate this feature.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Tesla Sets Deliveries Record While Falling Short of Elon Musk’s Mark

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. set another record for quarterly vehicle deliveries but fell short of a mark Elon Musk said was possible just last week, sending shares lower in late trading.

The electric-car maker handed over 97,000 vehicles to customers in the third quarter, exceeding the 95,356 reported for the prior three months. The figure let down investors who bid the shares up on Sept. 26 after Musk told employees they had a shot at reaching the six-figure mark for the first time. Tesla stock plunged as much as 6% after the close.

“When Elon Musk says they are aiming for 100,000 deliveries, you are hoping for 102,000. Not 97,000,” Gene Munster, a managing partner at venture capital firm Loup Ventures, said by phone. “This is a credibility hit. This is a textbook example of Elon not being disciplined and having difficulty managing expectations.”

  

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How could Musk screw up so badly? The only two answers: 1) Tesla's internal systems/controls are seriously deficient and/or 2) Musk is living in a world of delusion and desperation - and there's nobody left who can rein him in... Probably both, but more of the latter... 

Whitney Tilson

  

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Analysts at Bank of America pointed out that “although total Model 3 deliveries increased materially” at a year-over-year rate of 43%, that gain was “much less pronounced on a sequential basis, up just 2.5% from 2Q:19.”

Warning that “many challenges remain ahead” for Tesla as it burns through cash and misses estimates, the bank added that “this could reflect the still slow production ramp ... but potentially less robust demand (following a traditional spike-and-burnout pattern with new model launches).”

Tesla’s failure to explicitly reiterate earlier guidance for delivering between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles this year suggests fourth quarter deliveries and production may also fall short of hopes, BofA said. The bank rates Tesla’s stock as an Underperform, with a price target of $225.

  

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Tesla Battery Flaw Cover-Up Claim to Be Evaluated by NHTSA
Law firm seeking probe claims the fix reduced driving range

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says it’s received a petition calling for an investigation of certain Tesla Inc. electric cars and is evaluating the complaint, according to a notice posted on regulator’s website.

The petition, filed by a law firm representing Tesla drivers, alleges that Tesla updated battery management software in response to a potential defect that could lead to battery fires, according to the notice.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-04/nhtsa-evaluating-whether-to-probe-alle ged-flaw-in-tesla-cars

  

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‘’Tesla May Lose 80% of Its Value’’

Tesla could lose more than 80 percent of its value or disappear altogether, a NYU professor of business said a few days after Tesla reported record deliveries for the third quarter, but short of an unofficial target to deliver 100,000 electric vehicles (EVs).

According to a blog post by Scott Galloway, a Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business where he teaches Brand Strategy and Digital Marketing, Tesla is among several companies that could lose 80 percent or more of their value or disappear. Tesla is in the company of WeWork, Robinhood, Lyft, and OYO on Galloway’s list.

Tesla has changed the world for the better, Galloway says, but adds that “Tesla doesn’t have the scale to compete in a well-run, low-margin business — auto.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-may-lose-80-value-160000673.html

  

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>‘’Tesla May Lose 80% of Its Value’’
>
>Tesla could lose more than 80 percent of its value or
>disappear altogether, a NYU professor of business said a few
>days after Tesla reported record deliveries for the third
>quarter, but short of an unofficial target to deliver 100,000
>electric vehicles (EVs).
>
>According to a blog post by Scott Galloway, a Professor of
>Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business where he teaches
>Brand Strategy and Digital Marketing,

https://www.profgalloway.com/mdma

  

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"consumers are being used at beta-testers"

Tesla's 'Smart Summon' feature is glitchy and works intermittently: Consumer Reports

Tesla Inc.'s Smart Summon feature that was recently launched on its Model 3 is glitchy and works intermittently without an obvious benefit, Consumer Reports said Wednesday. The publication made the comment after tests conducted over several days at a Connecticut testing center and nearby parking lots. Tesla has said in online marketing materials and public comments from its chief executive Elon Musk, that owners can use a smartphone to summon their vehicles to pick them up, to avoid walking across a parking lot with groceries during rain, for example. While the Model 3 manual warns of limitations on the service, some owners have reported minor fender benders using the feature in parking lots at low speeds, said Consumer Reports. Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports' director of auto testing, said consumers are being used at beta-testers to fine-tune the technology, even though they are paying $6,000 upfront for it. "What consumers are really getting is the chance to participate in a kind of science experiment," he said. "This is a work in progress." Tesla did not return calls from Consumer Reports seeking comment.

  

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2 Mrd für 52.000 Stück/Jahr? Das muß wohl noch sehr viel mehr werden um sich auszuzahlen.

Tesla darf mit Produktion in China starten
Der US-Elektroautobauer wurde in die Liste der von der Regierung genehmigten Hersteller aufgenommen

Der Konzern hat in Schanghai ein Werk um zwei Milliarden Dollar (1,8 Milliarden Euro) gebaut – seine erste ausländische Produktionsstätte. Die Produktion dort soll noch im Oktober beginnen.

In Schanghai will Tesla bis Ende des Jahres wöchentlich mindestens 1.000 Fahrzeuge des Modells 3s bauen.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109998574/tesla-darf-mit-produktion-in-china-starten

  

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Musk ist nicht liquide

Dem Tesla-Chef steht gerade eine Klage bevor, weil er einen britischen Taucher bei Twitter als „pädophil“ bezeichnet hat, ohne irgendeinen Beleg dafür gehabt zu haben. Den Anwälten des Tauchers soll Musk gesagt haben, dass er gerade nicht liquide sei und über keine Anlagen verfüge, die sich schnell verkaufen lassen,

https://www.businessinsider.de/elon-musk-hat-kein-cash-verdienst-von-topmanagern-ist-komp lex-2019-10

  

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>Musk ist nicht liquide
>
>Dem Tesla-Chef steht gerade eine Klage bevor, weil er einen
>britischen Taucher bei Twitter als „pädophil“ bezeichnet hat,
>ohne irgendeinen Beleg dafür gehabt zu haben. Den Anwälten des
>Tauchers soll Musk gesagt haben, dass er gerade nicht liquide
>sei und über keine Anlagen verfüge, die sich schnell verkaufen
>lassen,


Wie der alte Hr. Mautner-Markhof mal gesagt hat: "Reich sein allein genügt nicht, man muß auch Geld haben."

  

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Tesla uber-bull Cathie Wood of ARK is dumping TSLA madly (2-3% today, 15-17% in the last week or so) despite having a price target of $6,000 (seriously) and a worst-case target of $700.

And people accuse short sellers of market manipulation...

https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1186748509271285761?s=12

Whitney Tilson

  

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>Tesla uber-bull Cathie Wood of ARK is dumping TSLA madly
>(2-3% today, 15-17% in the last week or so) despite having a
>price target of $6,000 (seriously) and a worst-case target of
>$700.
>
>And people accuse short sellers of market manipulation...
>
>https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1186748509271285761?s=12
>
>Whitney Tilson


Cathie Wood’s statement on why ARK was selling. This makes sense:

Ahead of the report, we received several questions about our recent trading activity in TSLA. During risk-off periods, we concentrate our portfolios increasingly into our highest conviction names. Earlier this year, even though the equity markets were open and operating, fears spread that Tesla would run out of cash before it could finance its aggressive expansion plans. As the stock dropped below $200, we increased the position in our flagship strategy to 10%, a level beyond which we could not buy based on our investment guidelines. Subsequently TSLA appreciated more than 30% relative to the rest of the names in our flagship portfolio, pushing its position size beyond 13%, at which point - again based on guidelines - we started taking profits. Nonetheless, it remained and remains the number one stock in that strategy and many of our other strategies.

  

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An outstanding analysis by Nathan Weiss of Weiss, Harrington and Associates:


Tesla Third Quarter Earnings Update

Overall Financial Results

After the close, Tesla (TSLA) reported GAAP third quarter revenue of $6,303 mln, well below our estimate of $6,885 mln and consensus expectations of $6,448 mln. The shortfall was almost entirely due to lower than expected automotive sales revenue, which came in at $5,132 mln versus our forecast of $5,590 mln. We suspect Tesla sold heavily written-down inventory during the quarter, but no meaning insight was provided in the press release (or rather summary slide show) or earnings call.



Company-wide GAAP gross margins were 18.90%, well above our 15.58% forecast and consensus expectations of 17.69%. The gross margin improvement went largely unexplained as revenue declined $47 mln sequentially (from $6,350 in Q2 to $6,303 mln in Q3) yet gross profits increased $270 mln (from $921 mln to $1,191 mln) – a very curious combination.



Tesla reported headline GAAP net income of $143 mln – or $.78 per diluted share – much better than our forecast of $-.82 per share and consensus expectations of $-1.47 per share. Again, the earnings release and conference call were light on details, but most notably ‘Other Income’ set a new all-time high of $85 mln – well above our forecast of $-22 mln and the TTM average of $-2 mln per quarter. Had ‘Other Income’ matched our forecast, GAAP earnings would have been $.20 per share – or $.58 lower.



Accounting

Tesla’s third quarter profit most certainly benefited from asset write-downs and accounting provisions made during the first half of the year – most notably the write-down of $500.5 mln of leased vehicle assets in the first quarter and the $160.8 mln combined first and second quarter restructuring charges. In our June 14th upgrade note (from ‘Sell’ to ‘Neutral’) we showed (on page five) the following table of Tesla’s first quarter accounting charges and their likely impact to future earnings:







At the time, we believed Tesla would realize the benefit of their accounting ‘piggy bank’ in the second, third and fourth quarters, but Tesla subsequently took a $117 mln charge in the second quarter and missed consensus (and our) estimates by a wide margin – likely indicating they were ‘kitchen sinking’ second quarter results and pushing potential accounting gains into the second half of the year. We assumed Tesla would once again accept their losses in the third quarter and instead flatter fourth quarter results, but this was obviously not the case. It can be incredibly difficult predicting quarterly earnings for companies which have recently written down assets held for sale and/or taken restructuring charges: The timing of realization of the subsequent accounting benefits is often at the discretion of management.



Automotive Segment Results

Third quarter deliveries totaled 97,186 vehicles (17,483 Model S+X and 79,703 Model 3) – slightly above the 97,000 deliveries pre-announced at the beginning of the month. Production totaled 96,155 vehicles - 16,318 Model S+X and 79,837 Model 3s – resulting in a 1,165 vehicle sequential decline in Model S+X inventories (to an estimated 9,154) and a 134 vehicle sequential increase in Model 3 inventories (to an estimated 14,967). For the first time in recent years, Tesla did not announce the number of vehicles in transit to customers after stating last quarter they were discontinuing the practice.



GAAP Automotive segment gross margins were 22.82%, massively above our forecast of 19.65%. Tesla’s estimated gross margin on new vehicle deliveries – excluding emission credit revenue - was 19.69%, again massively above our forecast of 16.84%. Gross margins on Automotive leasing declined to 47.06% (from 49.97% in the second quarter). Keep in mind leasing almost exactly doubles realized margins by amortizing the expected gross profit over 52% of the vehicle’s sale price (the lease residual value), making it curious new vehicle sales margins increased sequentially while leased vehicle margins declined.



Third quarter regulatory credit revenue totaled $134 mln, above our forecast of $102 mln, which was based on GHG credit revenue ($1,840 per U.S. vehicle sold) and no ZEV credit or European emission credit revenue. The positive surprise likely indicated Tesla recognized $32 mln of non-GHG emission credit revenue, quite possibly relating to the $140 mln of European regulatory credit revenue deferred in the first quarter (with none realized during the second quarter). Regardless, emission credit revenue boosted Automotive segment gross margins by 2.50% (2.07% in Q2).



Energy Generation and Storage (Solar Panels and Batteries) Results

Energy Generation and Storage segment revenue totaled $402 mln (UE forecast $372 mln) with $314 mln of related COGS (UE - $332 mln), resulting in a 21.9% gross margin (UE forecast 10.7%) – well above the 11.6% gross margin reported in the second quarter (and 2.4% in Q1). Prior to being acquired by Tesla, Solar City typically recorded mid-30% gross margins. We continue to believe Tesla is losing money on new solar system sales as revenue and expense accruals from solar installations in prior quarters have built in margins that exceed currently-reported segment margins.



TeslaSolarCity deployed just 43 MW of solar energy generation capacity during the quarter, well below our expectation of 64 MW but ‘up 48% from the second quarter’, as Tesla highlighted. Tesla continues to shift toward selling off-the-shelf modular components rather than custom installations – a strategy they announced last quarter – but few details are available (besides the fact that system deposits are $99).

Tesla deployed a record 477 MW of energy storage systems (Powerpacks and Powerwalls) – up from 415 MW in Q2 - likely generating $155.0 mln of revenue at $325 per kWh with slight losses. We forecasted 350 MWh of energy system sales.



Service and Other Results

Tesla recorded $548 mln of Service and Other revenue (service revenue, used vehicle sales and merchandise sales), below our forecast of $596 mln most likely due to weaker than expected used car sales. Service and Other COGS totaled $667 mln (UE: $596), resulting in a gross margin of –21.7%, inline with our forecast of -21.8%. In dollar terms, Service and Other segment gross profits were $-119 mln versus $-138 mln in the second quarter. We forecasted Service and Other gross profits of $-130 mln.



We continue to believe Service and Other segment losses result from Tesla incorporating warranty-related overhead in the segment…



Operating Expenses

Tesla’s operating expenses (SG&A + expensed R&D) declined to $930 mln in the third quarter (from $971 mln in Q2 and $1,044 in Q1), below our forecast of $966 mln. We do not yet know the new operating expense run rate as Tesla took a $43.5 mln restructuring charge in the first quarter and a further $117.3 mln during the second quarter, possibly flattering third quarter results.



While Tesla’s operating cost reductions have been impressive, Tesla invested very little in sales, service and supercharging capacity growth in 2018 despite cumulative vehicles sales growing from an estimated 286,700 at the end of 2017 to 532,100 at the end of 2018 – or +85.6%. Tesla’s underspending is beginning to catch up with them as supercharger and service center wait times are frequently excessive and buyers often receive their new vehicles with no salesperson or customer service agent present to go over the vehicle’s features and operation.



Not surprisingly, Tesla announced they added 66 supercharger stations in the third quarter (ending with 1,653), 11 sales and service locations (ending with 413) and 68 Mobile Service vehicles (ending with 719). This signals the third quarter will likely be the (artificial) low in Tesla’s operating expenses.



Total operating expenses per delivery decreased from $10,185 in the second quarter ($6,788 SG&A and $3,397 expensed R&D) to $9,672 in the third quarter ($3,474 SG&A and $6,198 expensed R&D). Tesla appears to be showing some operating leverage, but we re-iterate that we believe Tesla has been underspending on service and sales and note they took significant charges in the prior two quarters.



Customer Deposits

Tesla’s customer deposit liability increased by $35 mln sequentially - from $631 mln to $665 – after declining a record $137 mln in the second quarter. On their call, Musk provided no insight into customer deposits or the success or failure of initial Model Y reservations.



Capital Expenditures

Tesla reported first quarter capital expenditures of $385 mln – just below our $400 mln estimate. Tesla spent just $914 mln on CapEx in the first three quarters of 2019 but failed to update their full year guidance ($1,500 mln to $2,000 mln), which we found somewhat surprising. That said, we read little into Tesla’s CapEx guidance given their reliance on third-party CapEx which Tesla repays with purchase commitments (their Panasonic agreement, for example).



Cash Flows

Tesla continues to be focused on cash flows, beginning their shareholder letter stating “$383M increase in our cash and cash equivalents balance to $5.3B” and “$371M operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow).” The release showed GAAP CFFO was $756 mln, cash flows from investing were $-486 mln and cash flows from financing were $118 mln.



Working capital decreased $154 mln sequentially as inventories increased $199 mln (to $3,581 mln), accounts receivable decreased $19 mln (to $1,128 mln) and payables increased $334 mln (to $3,468 mln).



On a Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) basis, payables increased from 44.0 days at the end of the second quarter to 61.7 days at the end of the third quarter. In previous periods, DPOs averaged in the mid-80s. We continue believe Tesla is managing accounts payable to target specific quarterly cash flow goals.



Adjusting for the $154 mln decrease in working capital and the $35 mln increase in customer deposits, adjusted third quarter cash flows from operations were $567 mln, below the $762 mln generated in the second quarter despite meaningfully higher earnings. Third quarter earnings were very ‘low quality’ from a cash flow perspective.



Overall, unrestricted cash balances grew $383 mln sequentially to $5,338 mln



Guidance

Last quarter Tesla stated in their shareholder letter they are “simplifying our approach to guidance” – which appears to indicate they are ‘simply’ offering less - and softer - guidance going forward. This quarter Tesla took the ‘simplification’ of guidance a step further, with the earnings slideshow merely stating they were “highly confident in exceeding 360,000 deliveries this year,” implying 104,432+ fourth quarter deliveries. All other ‘guidance’ entailed vague statements such as “positive quarterly free cash flow going forward, with possible temporary exceptions.” For the second quarter in a row, Tesla also refrained from any gross margin related guidance.



Conclusions

Last quarter we wrote “Tesla now has adequate provisions and write-downs to ensure that 100,000 third quarter deliveries - combined with modest ZEV and European emission credit revenue ($35 to $50 mln) - could generate a GAAP profit, significantly exceeding consensus estimates.” Unfortunately, we backed away from the forecast (instead forecasting an $.82 per share GAAP loss) as deliveries came in weaker than expected (particularly for Model S/X) and we felt Tesla would hold back from harvesting meaningful accounting reserves until the fourth quarter. With Tesla share up 20.15% in after hours (+$51.32 to $306.00), we clearly missed an opportunity to temporarily upgrade our ‘Neutral’ rating.



Going forward, it is hard to say if the 10-Q will bring sufficient disclosures to diminish the positive investor sentiment Tesla generated tonight with their ‘shocking’ third quarter profit. We also believe Tesla has sufficient accounting flexibility (or rather provisions) to show an even greater profit in the fourth quarter, making the shares uninvestable barring an extreme price movement in either direction. Perhaps more than before, ‘neutral’ is the right rating for Tesla.



(that said, we still believe Tesla could have a disastrous first quarter and Chinese Model 3 sales will disappoint.. But Q1 results are a long ways out…)

Whitney Tilson

  

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Words of wisdom from Doug Kass:

Why I Will Never Short Tesla
* This missive delivers an important lesson in short selling that will likely save you a lot of money and sleep
* Trust me, please!

Following a better-than-expected earnings release from Tesla (TSLA) , the company's shares rose by about 20% in after-hours trading Wednesday. The shares at this writing were up about $48 for a gain of 19% in pre-market trading Thursday.

For many years I have been quite negative on Tesla's operating outlook and its share price, but I generally have refused to short the stock.

Let me explain, because as a professional short seller there is a very important lesson to be learned.

A basic short-selling tenet of mine is to avoid shorting any stock with high short interest ratios, whether measured against days to cover or as a percentage of a company's (share) float.

This view is a function not only of my own and my investors' risk profile and appetite, but honestly it has practical application for almost anyone navigating in the short-selling world.

I cannot emphasize this precept greater -- it has saved me an enormous amount of money and sleep.

There are 36 million shares of Tesla short, representing a high six days to cover based on average daily trading volume of six million shares over the last ten days and representing an elevated 28% of the float of 140 million shares.

  

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My thoughts on Tesla

I’m still analyzing Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings report – and awaiting the 10Q – but I have two general (and conflicting) views… First, there’s no question that reporting a positive net income, operating cash flow, and free cash flow quarter is impressive and unexpected. The stock is responding accordingly (thanks in part no doubt to the mother of all short squeezes).


Second, many of the numbers Tesla reported don’t make sense. Sales exceeded production, but inventory went up by $200 million? Sequential revenue was down, but pre-tax profit rose by $546 million? There are some funny things going on here – and Tesla didn’t provide much in the way of explanation in its earnings “update” (a 28-page slide deck) and conference call.

Whitney Tilson

  

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“YoY numbers were bad -- admittedly a difficult compare against the strongest Q Tesla has ever reported…”


-- No, it was actually a relatively easy comparison to Q3 2018. You see, during that quarter Tesla was selling the Model 3 in only two countries -- the U.S. and Canada. In contrast, during Q3 2019 Tesla was selling the Model 3 in every meaningful geography around the world, i.e., everywhere it sells the Model X and S. That includes all of Europe, China, Japan and Australia/NZ. Given all of this additional distribution, it is beyond inexcusable that revenue declined 8% from the prior year.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm on Musk

“There are very few people in the world like Elon, and the world needs more of them,” said Denholm, who left her role as CFO and head of strategy at Telstra, the Australian telecommunications firm, to chair Tesla’s board full time.

Denholm added that she has worked with a number of founders during her career and that the standard is different. “In this world you can’t be a disruptor part of the time. You can either be a disruptor and innovator as an individual or not," she said. "I don’t expect normalcy in that environment whether it’s Elon or one of the other innovators I’ve worked with.”

She didn’t open up about the day-to-day of overseeing the company that Musk built and manages, but she said of the joys of the job: “You can see the progress. Nobody, 15 years ago, was thinking about electric vehicles or sustainable energy with batteries. Today, the fact that the rest of the industry is moving that way is phenomenal. That would not have happened without Elon.”

  

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Tesla beats on third quarter earnings, company returns to profitability

Tesla posts surprise 3Q profit, stock surges

Emily McCormick

October 23, 2019, 10:56 PM GMT+2

Tesla (TSLA) unexpectedly turned a profit in the third quarter, sending shares soaring in after-hours trading.

Here were the main numbers from the report, versus consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

Revenue: $6.30 billion vs. $6.45 billion expected and $6.82 billion YOY

Adjusted earnings per share: $1.86 vs. loss of 24 cents expected and earnings of $2.90 YOY

As is typical with Tesla’s quarterly expectations, the range of the Street’s estimates for the company’s bottom-line results ran a wide gamut, ranging from a loss of as much of $1.25 per share to earnings of as much as 34 cents per share, according to Bloomberg data.

Shares of Tesla jumped more than 18% to $301.46 each as of 5:36 p.m. ET after the estimates-topping earnings results were released.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-3q-2019-earnings-results-191052868.html

  

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Daher weht der Wind:

and said margins improved “in part due to Smart Summon-related deferred revenue recognition, FX and other non-recurring items” during the quarter.

  

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>Daher weht der Wind:
>
>and said margins improved “in part due to Smart Summon-related
>deferred revenue recognition,

Das Feature ist offensichtlich nicht marktreif und wurde mE nur ausgerollt um diesen deferred Umsatz buchen zu können. Kapitalerhöhung bevorstehend? Es werden bald Solarcity-Anleihen fällig.

  

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Wirklich erstaunlich.
Umsatz im Jahresvergleich -8%, Gewinn -36%, und die Aktie steigt massiv.
Wie immer bei Tesla wurden offenbar viele am falschen Fuß erwischt, die noch schlechtere Zahlen vorhergesehen hatten.

  

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>Wirklich erstaunlich.
>Umsatz im Jahresvergleich -8%, Gewinn -36%, und die Aktie
>steigt massiv.
>Wie immer bei Tesla wurden offenbar viele am falschen Fuß
>erwischt, die noch schlechtere Zahlen vorhergesehen hatten.


Und dazu stagnierender Absatz. Bei einer Aktie die auf Super-Wachstum gepreist ist normal ein Rezept für ein Desaster.

  

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Tesla said in March the China factory would cost $2 billion to construct. Tesla's total capex YTD is only $915MM. Where on the financial statements does it reflect the cost of building this factory?

Whitney Tilson

  

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>Tesla said in March the China factory would cost $2 billion
>to construct. Tesla's total capex YTD is only $915MM. Where on
>the financial statements does it reflect the cost of building
>this factory?
>
>Whitney Tilson

The mystery of the China cap-ex seems to be solved. The china factory and related cap-ex is 100% consolidated. Apparently cash payments for the China plant aren't due until early 2020. So you will see significant cash outflows early next year probably through Q2. This combined with the China ramp will probably result in significantly lower profitability and free cash flow generation....but they will blame that on China ramp in that period.

  

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The Elon Musk SolarCity bailout fraud case deposition was filed today. Give it a read. It is hilarious. For the record Elon believes that if you are a public company you can always raise money by issuing equity.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnju6zdlnrm3n6l/Aaron%20Musk%20pdf.pdf?dl=0

Whitney Tilson

  

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Tesla Falls as Roth Calls Margins ‘Unsustainable,’ Cuts to Sell

Roth cut its rating on Tesla Inc. to sell, arguing that one-time items drove margins in the third-quarter. Shares fell the most intraday in three weeks.

Analyst Craig Irwin said the carmaker’s 10-Q filing shows that warranty adjustments largely fueled the margin beat
“Tesla cut accruals by $185 per car and reversed certain warranty provisions, delivering a $55m one-time benefit”

He views the company’s margins as “unsustainable”

Irwin predicts that decelerating deliveries growth in 2020 will drive multiple compression

  

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US-Verkäufe von Tesla-Elektroautos brachen um 40 Prozent ein

Dazu kommt Ärger mit einer mächtigen Kontrollorganisation der deutschen Wirtschaft wegen angeblich irreführender Werbung

Der US-Elektroautobauer Tesla erhielt im dritten Quartal einen kräftigen Dämpfer auf dem US-Heimatmarkt. In den drei Monaten bis Ende September ging das Umsatzvolumen im Jahresvergleich um fast 40 Prozent auf 3,1 Milliarden Dollar (2,8 Milliarden Euro) zurück, teilte Tesla am Dienstag mit.

Der Autobauer hatte seine Quartalszahlen eigentlich schon veröffentlicht, legte nun aber in einer Mitteilung an die Börsenaufsicht SEC Details zur regionalen Geschäftsentwicklung nach. Demnach gerät der Absatz in den USA stark ins Stocken, wo bis dato die meisten Teslas verkauft werden.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000110475202/us-verkaeufe-von-tesla-elektroautos-brache n-um-40-prozent-ein

  

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The future of Elon Musk’s empire was in peril in 2016, and now new documents reveal more about the desperate plan to save it


Tesla shareholders filed a lawsuit against the company in 2016, alleging that CEO Elon Musk pushed the company to buy SolarCity to enrich himself. They said it was a breach of fiduciary duty.
On Thursday, several depositions (including one of Musk) and documents included in the suit were published on the website PlainSite, an organization focused on transparency in the US judicial system. The Think Computer Foundation originally obtained the documents.
Some documents showed that SolarCity was facing a liquidity crisis when Tesla bought it, and that some Tesla board members had a lot to lose personally if the deal didn't go through. The documents also showed that the Tesla solar-roof-tile product, which was unveiled to the public just before the acquisition was approved by the board, didn't work.
An email from Musk included in the lawsuit showed that he pushed to move up the presentation of the solar tile to convince the board to approve the SolarCity acquisition.
"Latest feedback from major investors is very negative on SolarCity," Musk said in an email to Peter Rive, SolarCity's cofounder, on September 16, 2016. "We need to show them what the integrated product looks like. They just don't get it. Needs to happen before the vote, so maybe aim for October 28th for a joint solar roof and Powerwall 2 unveiling."
Musk's lawyers have argued he didn't really control the process for buying SolarCity because he didn't vote on the deal, and that the stockholders who voted on the deal were fully informed of what was going on at the two companies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-solarcity-merger-frenzied-plan-new-filing s-show-2019-10

  

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Glenn Tongue’s take on Q3 earnings:

Investors often need to be detectives. GAAP accounting allows for significant management discretion, and large businesses can often have complicated disclosures. This dynamic can be incredibly irksome when dealing with a management team that appears to work backwards, starting at a desired level of profitability and then building assumptions into the financials that support these numbers.

That, in a nutshell, is why I never overreact when Tesla reports its earnings. It’s important to wait for the quarterly filing, the 10Q, to try and understand what really happened with the business. On Tuesday morning this document was filed, and I put on my sleuthing cap and went to work.

Why did the stock skyrocket last week? The answer is that Tesla surprised investors by reporting net income of $143 million instead of an expected loss. So let’s start by asking whether the company actually generated $143 million of economic profit in the quarter?

The clearest way to answer this question for me has always been the equity account on the balance sheet. If equity, net of any new stock issued, goes up, there is your economic profit. Tesla’s financial statements show that equity grew from $5.715 billion at the end of Q2 to $6.040 billion at the end of Q3, a gain of $325 million. But the company issued $296 million of equity, so the net increase is only $29 million – a positive economic profit, but significantly less than reported.

Another reason investors cheered was the large cash balance. But while cash went up by $383 million, debt also went up by $317 million. And speaking of cash balances, I am very skeptical of the stated cash balance. If they really held $5 billion (as opposed to end-of-quarter window dressing) the company should have generated far more than the stated $15 million of interest income.

The next area that looked suspicious was the swing in automotive gross margins. Automotive gross profit in Q3 grew by $206 million sequentially, from $1.016 billion to $1.222 billion, while revenues actually declined slightly. That is very unusual for a capital-intensive business. Tesla attributed it to various cost benefits, including reductions in manufacturing and material costs, FX related gains, and other non-recurring items.

I suspect that Tesla is hiding some material facts regarding these improvements. For starters, FX gains have nothing to do with cost of goods sold, so should have appeared elsewhere in the financials and not used to boost gross margins. And when asked about the non-recurring items, management refused to shed any light. But industry insiders have. It seems that Tesla strong-armed suppliers to give them big rebates in Q3 – estimated at $100 million – in exchange for participation in the new model Y. In addition, a redacted document from the quarterly filing was an amendment to the Panasonic battery supply contract. Did Tesla get money from them as well? I suspect so.

Whitney Tilson

  

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As to the specific financial games played in Q3, of the $143 million “profit,” $80 million came from foreign
exchange gains, approximately $55 million from reduced warranty provisioning/accruals, $100 million
reportedly from one-time rebates from suppliers promised future volume for Model 3 parts used on the Model Y, and $51 million from “burning the furniture to heat the house” via a huge reduction in SG&A
despite having 97,000 more cars on the road, thereby resulting in interminable, reputation-destroying
customer service wait times. Additionally, $134 million of the “profit” came from regulatory credit sales
that will disappear approximately two years from now when they’re no longer needed by other auto
manufacturers; i.e., they don’t merit an earnings multiple. Accounting for these non-repeatable (or
unsustainable) items, Tesla’s alleged profit flips to a large loss, and these are only the one-time items of
which we’re aware.

Stanphyl Capital

  

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Ich finde 5p sehr cool.
Aber auch hier ist es wichtig, die richtige Firma zu wählen, denn ich habe sehr oft Leute getroffen, die Sie nur täuschen wollen.
Hier ist ein exzellenter Service https://unternehmen-in.de/ , der mir sehr oft geholfen hat.
Also überlegen sich die Leute, wo sie bestellen sollen.

  

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David Einhorn mit bösem Kommentar zu Tesla

Ich schätze Musk wird ihm nichts mehr schenken...:

"Tesla (TSLA) and Chemours (CC) were material losers during the quarter. TSLA shares recovered from $223.46 to $240.87. Unit sales in the June quarter improved more than we expected compared to the March quarter.

Even so, TSLA appears to continue to spin positive PR ahead of the safety and fair treatment of its customers. For example, in August Walmart sued TSLA because its solar panels were catching on fire. Rather than warn its solar customers when TSLA became aware of the fire risk, TSLA allegedly created Project Titan – a covert program to replace the defective components while staying out of the news. Similarly, in response to a series of car battery fires, instead of recalling the batteries, TSLA appears to have quietly issued a “software update” to the battery management system that has a side effect of reducing battery range. TSLA has chosen not to warn or compensate its customers for the decreased performance.

Finally, to the surprise of nobody, documents in TSLA’s SolarCity litigation unsealed in September showed that Elon Musk knowingly orchestrated a significant fraud by arranging the $2.6 billion acquisition at a time when SolarCity was insolvent. Musk and his family had a huge conflict of interest, but rather than properly recusing himself, Musk initiated the transaction and drove the process. SolarCity was so cash-strapped, it was trying to delay payments to vendors after parts were delivered and the vendors had recognized the revenue; SolarCity could not raise any funds at reasonable rates from third parties; and Musk engineered the unveiling of the Solar Roof tile to convince TSLA’s shareholders to approve the deal, even though the product did not exist at the time. As was the case with Musk’s extraordinary “funding secured” tweet last year, we believe this level of trampling of standard processes of corporate governance, ignoring methods to deal with related party transactions and self-dealing should lead to substantial consequences. For now, the accepted reality appears to be that Elon Musk is above the law."

  

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>Elon Musk Burns Short Seller David Einhorn on Twitter After
>Tesla Gain
>
> Offers to take Greenlight co-founder on tour of facilities
> Online missive accompanied by a pair of ‘short shorts’
>
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-08/musk-burns-short-seller-einhorn-on-twi tter-after-tesla-50-gain
>

In der Regel sind es CEOs, bei denen nicht alles rein ist, die sich um short seller kümmern. Mal sehen wie das endet.

  

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Tesla Wins Positive Outlook From S&P as Cash Flow Takes Shape

By Elizabeth Rembert

· Outlook revised from negative given debt reduction, more cash

· Company paid off a $566 million convertible bond last week

(Bloomberg) --

Tesla Inc. won a stamp of approval from bond grader S&P Global Ratings, as Elon Musk’s electric-car maker may be a candidate for a credit upgrade.

S&P revised its outlook on Tesla to positive from negative -- bypassing the stable view in between -- on the increased likelihood that high demand and better manufacturing will help Tesla’s credit metrics, according to a report Wednesday. Tesla has been reducing debt and generating free cash flow, which should lower its leverage below four times debt to a measure of earnings, S&P said.

Tesla has had a B- rating from S&P -- six steps into speculative grade -- since the rater first assigned a grade in June 2015. It’s been subject to a negative outlook for most of the time since then, namely reflecting ongoing profitability and manufacturing challenges. That’s starting to change as the company delivered strong earnings recently, countering Musk’s naysayers and turning a profit in the third quarter.

Still, there are risks to S&P’s outlook, namely around execution and demand. S&P also said that while Tesla is cutting debt, its burden remains high at around $11.8 billion.

  

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>Musk Donates 1 Million Trees to Global Reforestation
>Campaign
>
> Team Trees campaign seeks to plant 20 million trees by 2022
> YouTube has joined the effort and pledged to match donations
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/musk-donates-1-million-trees-to-global -reforestation-campaign

Und was machen wir aus seinen alten Batterien?

  

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Wenn man mal die eigenen Politiker verflucht..., anderswo geht es so zu:

Tesla's Buffalo plant gets $884 million write-down

b]New York State spent $958.6 million to build Tesla Inc.'s solar panel factory in South Buffalo and buy a big chunk of the equipment inside.

Now, auditors are saying the building and all that equipment is worth just under $75 million – or just 8% of what the state put into the RiverBend factory…

…the impact of the Tesla plant will be far less than what state officials initially promised. In a series of contract revisions, the state dropped the provision included in earlier agreements that mandated the creation of another 1,440 jobs at suppliers and service providers, effectively cutting the job impact from the state's $959 million investment in half. Hopes that the project would spur the creation of a solar energy research hub in Buffalo and Rochester also failed to pan out.


To try to meet its job targets, Tesla is making electronic components for its electric vehicle Superchargers and inverters for some of its battery products. Tesla executives say they are creating a "center for excellence" for power electronics in Buffalo. That's not the same as the solar energy hub that state officials were promising.


The agreement also failed to set any type of pay standards for the RiverBend jobs. For nearly $1 billion in taxpayer subsidies, it certainly would have been reasonable for the state to insist that the factory's jobs pay well – maybe mandating that 80% of the positions pay at least 33% above the area's median wage, or around $59,000. Instead, Tesla's entry level wage is around $16 an hour, or around $33,000 a year.

The company did not respond when asked to comment.


Tesla's subsidies, if it meets its mandate to employ 1,460 people, amount to $657,000 per job in Buffalo. Tesla's commitment, however, is broader than just Buffalo. The company has agreed to spend $5 billion on capital and operating expenses and bring 5,000 jobs to the state during the 10-year period.

For that, the state spent $660 million to buy 88 acres of land at RiverBend, do the environmental cleanup of the former Republic Steel plant site and build a 1-million-square-foot factory for Tesla. The state also spent $299 million to buy specialized equipment for the factory…

https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/08/pennies-on-the-dollar-the-tesla-plant-isnt-worth-nearl y-what-the-state-paid-to-build-it/

  

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Tesla Flaunts First China-Built Cars as Start of Sales Nears

esla Inc. unveiled its first vehicles built in China, a milestone for Elon Musk’s company as it prepares to start sales of domestically-made electric sedans in the world’s largest auto market.

Assembled in Tesla’s new Shanghai Gigafactory, which only broke ground in January, the first Model 3 sedans came in blue and were emblazoned with the brand name in Chinese characters. Selected local media were invited late last week to test drive the vehicles, which start at about $50,000.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/tesla-flaunts-first-china-built-cars-a s-start-of-sales-nears

  

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TeslaCharts with a thread on Twitter documenting nearly two dozen examples of Musk’s evil and immoral behavior, hiding safety issues and trying to destroy any and all critics:
https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1193856939178020864?s=11

Whitney Tilson

  

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>>Nett nicht, aber originell.
>
>Verhaltensoriginell auch.
>

Wobei man sagen muss - da ist schon auch Schlagseite dabei, natürlich ist man seinen Gegnern gegenüber nicht endlos sanft. Tilson ist ja auch kein Kind von Traurigkeit. Das Niveau ad hominem, das zunehmend aufkommt in der Tesla-Kritik zeigt die Härte der Bandagen und ist eigentlich geschmacklos. Beinharte Interessenpolitik hier wie da. So unvermeidlich das offenbar ist, locker doppelt so entbehrlich ist es auch...

  

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>>>Nett nicht, aber originell.
>>
>>Verhaltensoriginell auch.
>>
>
>Wobei man sagen muss - da ist schon auch Schlagseite dabei,
>natürlich ist man seinen Gegnern gegenüber nicht endlos sanft.
>Tilson ist ja auch kein Kind von Traurigkeit. Das Niveau ad
>hominem, das zunehmend aufkommt in der Tesla-Kritik zeigt die
>Härte der Bandagen und ist eigentlich geschmacklos. Beinharte
>Interessenpolitik hier wie da. So unvermeidlich das offenbar
>ist, locker doppelt so entbehrlich ist es auch...


Großes Kino. Ich sehe mir das hochinteressiert(!) nur mehr von außen an, kostet zu viel Nerven.

  

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Tesla baut europäische Fabrik bei Berlin

Die "Gigafactory" soll zunächst den künftigen Kompakt-SUV Model Y sowie auch Batterien und Antriebe bauen. Tesla werde zudem ein Ingenieurs- und Designzentrum in Berlin ansiedeln, sagte Musk. "Deutschland baut großartige Autos." Das sein einer der Gründe für die Standort-Entscheidung gewesen.

Die Fabrik in Deutschland soll nach bisherigen Angaben voraussichtlich Ende 2021 in Betrieb gehen. Musk twitterte in der Nacht zum Mittwoch, das Model Y solle das erste Fahrzeug aus dem Werk sein.

https://www.diepresse.com/5721249/tesla-baut-europaische-fabrik-bei-berlin

  

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Dudenhöffer: Batterie-Förderung nach Tesla-Ankündigung überdenken

Die Bundesregierung muss nach Ansicht des Branchenexperte Ferdinand Dudenhöffer bei der Förderung der Batterieproduktion umdenken. Nach der Ankündigung von Tesla -Chef Elon Musk, bei Berlin eine Fabrik für die Herstellung von Batterien und Elektrofahrzeugen zu bauen, sei zu überlegen, welchen Sinn die eine Milliarde Euro noch habe, die Wirtschaftsminister Peter Altmaier (CDU) in eine deutsche Lithium-Ionen-Fabrikation stecken wolle. Auch die geplante Batterieforschungsfabrik in Nordrhein-Westfalen mit 200 Millionen Euro Landesmitteln sei nun zu hinterfragen, meinte Dudenhöffer von der Universität Duisburg-Essen am Mittwoch.

Dass die Wahl für die europäische Tesla-Fabrik auf Deutschland und Berlin-Brandenburg gefallen sei, nannte Dudenhöffer "überraschend, aber nicht abwegig". Für die Batteriezellproduktion seien Standortfaktoren wie Flächen, Bodenpreise, Infrastruktur und Energiekosten wichtig, "aber natürlich hat Berlin auch Aussagekraft und die passt zu einer Premiummarke wie Tesla".

Die Zahl der Arbeitsplätze in der künftigen Fabrik sollte man nach Einschätzung von Dudenhöffer nicht überschätzten. "Zellfabrikation ist hochautomatisiert. Da zählen Energiekosten deutlich mehr als Arbeitskosten", erläuterte der Autofachmann.

  

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Wieviel Tesla dafür jetzt kassiert wär schon interessant:

...

Möglicherweise sei die besondere Standortförderung in Brandenburg ein Punkt gewesen.

  

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>Wieviel Tesla dafür jetzt kassiert wär schon interessant:
>
>...
>
>Möglicherweise sei die besondere Standortförderung in
>Brandenburg ein Punkt gewesen.


In Deutschland dürfen die Amerikaner zumindest mit Fördermitteln aus dem Bundesland Brandenburg rechnen. Um welche Summen es sich handelt, sagte Woidke nicht, man bewege sich aber im „beihilferechtlichen Rahmen“ der EU.

https://www.diepresse.com/5721801/tesla-mischt-deutsche-autobauer-auf

  

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Interessante Fotos:

E-Autowracks: Brandgefährlicher Sondermüll

Seit fünf Wochen steht in Walchsee das ausgebrannte Wrack eines Tesla. Niemand will sich die Finger daran verbrennen, den Wagen mit seiner unberechenbaren, 600 kg schweren Lithium-Ionen-Batterie zu entsorgen.

https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3021270/

  

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Worst Case Scenario For Older Teslas Coming To Fruition As Some Won't Charge And Screen Stops Working: Report

As evidenced by the army of bot-like social media accounts that yell at anyone who dare criticizes Elon Musk or Tesla, many people love their Teslas. But, the caveat there is most people love their new Teslas. The vast majority of Teslas on the road today are less than four years old. So we really don’t know how well they hold up.

https://jalopnik.com/worst-case-scenario-for-older-teslas-coming-to-fruition-1839105865

  

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Tesla plant bis vier Milliarden Euro für deutsche Gigafactory

Nach Informationen der Deutschen Presse-Agentur ist dies als Summe für mehrere Ausbaustufen der geplanten Ansiedlung in Brandenburg im Gespräch; zuvor hatte "Bild am Sonntag" darüber berichtet.

In einer ersten Stufe sind der Brandenburger Landesregierung zufolge in Grünheide (Kreis Oder-Spree) über 3.000 Arbeitsplätze geplant, bis zu 8.000 könnten es nach einem Ausbau werden. Der Start der Bauarbeiten nahe der Autobahn 10 ist für das erste Quartal 2020 geplant.

Der Hersteller kann laut "Bild am Sonntag" mit EU-Zuschüssen von rund 300 Millionen Euro rechnen.

https://www.diepresse.com/5723757/tesla-plant-bis-vier-milliarden-euro-fur-deutsche-gigaf actory

  

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>Tesla plant bis vier Milliarden Euro für deutsche
>Gigafactory
>
>Nach Informationen der Deutschen Presse-Agentur ist dies als
>Summe für mehrere Ausbaustufen der geplanten Ansiedlung in
>Brandenburg im Gespräch; zuvor hatte "Bild am Sonntag" darüber
>berichtet.
>
>In einer ersten Stufe sind der Brandenburger Landesregierung
>zufolge in Grünheide (Kreis Oder-Spree) über 3.000
>Arbeitsplätze geplant, bis zu 8.000 könnten es nach einem
>Ausbau werden. Der Start der Bauarbeiten nahe der Autobahn 10
>ist für das erste Quartal 2020 geplant.
>
>Der Hersteller kann laut "Bild am Sonntag" mit EU-Zuschüssen
>von rund 300 Millionen Euro rechnen.
>
>https://www.diepresse.com/5723757/tesla-plant-bis-vier-milliarden-euro-fur-deutsche-gigaf actory


Musk ist ein Genie! (Im einsammeln von Zuschüssen)

  

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>Schon immer faszinierend ihm zuzuhören:
>
>Elon Musk: Neuralink, AI, Autopilot, and the Pale Blue Dot |
>Artificial Intelligence (AI) Podcast
>
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smK9dgdTl40&feature=youtu.be

Nichts wirklich Neues. So was ähnliches hab ich schon vor 20 Jahren von einem Forscher an einer Uni gehört, der mir das Interface auch mit einem Computerspiel demonstriert hat. Musk bekommt aus irgendeinem Grund eine unglaubliche Audience und das ist der größte Unterschied.

  

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>Nichts wirklich Neues. So was ähnliches hab ich schon vor 20
>Jahren von einem Forscher an einer Uni gehört, der mir das
>Interface auch mit einem Computerspiel demonstriert hat. Musk
>bekommt aus irgendeinem Grund eine unglaubliche Audience und
>das ist der größte Unterschied.

Das war vermutlich non-invasiv mit Elektroden zur Messung der Gehirnströme? Neuralink will ja direkt an Neuronen anschließen.

  

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>
>>Nichts wirklich Neues. So was ähnliches hab ich schon vor
>20
>>Jahren von einem Forscher an einer Uni gehört, der mir
>das
>>Interface auch mit einem Computerspiel demonstriert hat.
>Musk
>>bekommt aus irgendeinem Grund eine unglaubliche Audience
>und
>>das ist der größte Unterschied.
>
>Das war vermutlich non-invasiv mit Elektroden zur Messung der
>Gehirnströme? Neuralink will ja direkt an Neuronen
>anschließen.


P.S.: Und 2-way-communication schaffen.

  

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Warum die Scheiben des Tesla-Cybertrucks brachen

Elon Musk will nun einen Grund dafür gefunden haben: Weil Holzhausen mit dem Vorschlaghammer auf die Karosserie einschlug, soll die Basis des Glases gebrochen sein, tat er via Twitter kund. Dies sorgte schließlich dafür, dass die Scheiben den Aufprall der Metallkugel nicht abfangen konnten. „Wir hätten erst die Metallkugel aufs Fenster werfen und dann mit dem Vorschlaghammer auf die Tür hauen sollen“, schrieb Firmengründer Musk auf Twitter.

https://www.diepresse.com/5728677/warum-die-scheiben-des-tesla-cybertrucks-brachen

  

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“What do you guys do when you meet?” asked Tom Drechsler, Editor in Chief AUTO der BILD Gruppe us tonight at the Golden Steering Wheel Award ceremony in Berlin.

“We party like rockstars!“ answered Tesla CEO Elon Musk – and there is nothing to add.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jochen-sengpiehl-29015662_what-do-you-guys-do-when-you-mee t-asked-ugcPost-6600332722323890176-z7sY

  

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Sechs Tesla-Läden in Österreich, Luxus-Showroom in Wiener City zu
Repräsentative Wiener Innenstadt-Location dauerhaft geschlossen - Mehr Supercharger-Ladestationen

Der amerikanische Elektroauto-Vorreiter Tesla hat heuer im Spätsommer seinen 2017 eröffneten noblen Flagship Store mitten in der Wiener Innenstadt, in der Wallnerstraße beim Herrengassen-Hochhaus, leergeräumt. Nur die Aufschrift an den Schaufensterbalken erinnert noch an den ersten repräsentativen Showroom in Österreich. Das Geschäft ist dauerhaft geschlossen, heißt es auf der Tesla-Homepage.

Auf der Konzernhomepage sind am südlichen Stadtrand in Wien zwei Stores bzw. Galerien (Wien-Vösendorf/SCS und Tech-Park Vienna) und vier weitere in anderen Bundesländern angegeben: In Linz/Traun, Salzburg, Innsbruck und Graz). Verkäufe werden auch über die Stores nur online abgewickelt.

Heuer im März hatte Tesla angekündigt, seine Autos nur noch über das Internet verkaufen zu wollen, was die Fahrzeuge billiger machen sollte. Zahlreiche bestehende Läden sollten geschlossen werden.

An den Standorten in Graz, Linz, Salzburg sowie im Tech Park Vienna werden in Österreich auch eigene Service Center unterhalten. Eine weitere Service-Niederlassung soll in Kürze in Wien in der Triesterstraße entstehen.

Die konzerneigene Lade-Infrastruktur wächst in den Bundesländern weiter. Zur Zeit unterhält Tesla abseits der Shops und Servicestationen in Österreich 17 Schnellladestationen, in Kürze kommt ein weiterer so genannter "Supercharger" in Wolfsberg/Kärnten dazu.

  

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Hm - alles ausgelagert, d.h. nach dem Autoverkauf gibts nurmehr Ausreden, keine Verantwortung mehr?

So geht Cost Cutting, eigentlich ein Wahnsinn wenn man bedenkt wie edgy und teilweise experimentell Tesla operiert was die Features der Fahrzeuge betrifft. Man glaubt kaum,d ass es da nicht irgendwann nen Riesenknall gibt, wenn wirklich Volumen auf die Straßen kommen sollte...

  

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>Hm - alles ausgelagert, d.h. nach dem Autoverkauf gibts
>nurmehr Ausreden, keine Verantwortung mehr?
>
>So geht Cost Cutting, eigentlich ein Wahnsinn wenn man bedenkt
>wie edgy und teilweise experimentell Tesla operiert was die
>Features der Fahrzeuge betrifft. Man glaubt kaum,d ass es da
>nicht irgendwann nen Riesenknall gibt, wenn wirklich Volumen
>auf die Straßen kommen sollte...

  

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>>Hm - alles ausgelagert, d.h. nach dem Autoverkauf gibts
>>nurmehr Ausreden, keine Verantwortung mehr?
>>
>>So geht Cost Cutting, eigentlich ein Wahnsinn wenn man
>bedenkt
>>wie edgy und teilweise experimentell Tesla operiert was
>die
>>Features der Fahrzeuge betrifft. Man glaubt kaum,d ass es
>da
>>nicht irgendwann nen Riesenknall gibt, wenn wirklich
>Volumen
>>auf die Straßen kommen sollte...

Ja, wenn man sich die Risk factors im 10k oder Q durchliest,
ist es verwunderlich, dass sie überhaupt Autos produzieren
dürfen. Ich möchte TSLA shorten, aber auf der anderen Seite
steht einer der größten Showmaster, der es immer wieder schafft seine Sendung ins nächste Quartal zu bringen.

  

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."...einer der größten Showmaster, der es immer wieder schafft seine Sendung ins nächste Quartal zu bringen."


genau, und das seit 1995

  

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>."...einer der größten Showmaster, der es immer wieder
>schafft seine Sendung ins nächste Quartal zu bringen."
>
>
>genau, und das seit 1995

Unfd mit wechselnden Sendungen auch noch

  

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>Ja, wenn man sich die Risk factors im 10k oder Q durchliest,
>ist es verwunderlich, dass sie überhaupt Autos produzieren
>dürfen. Ich möchte TSLA shorten, aber auf der anderen Seite
>steht einer der größten Showmaster, der es immer wieder
>schafft seine Sendung ins nächste Quartal zu bringen.

mE wird irgendwann Musk Tesla einem großen Automobilhersteller umhängen - da ist shorten keine gute Idee.

  

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>mE wird irgendwann Musk Tesla einem großen Automobilhersteller
>umhängen - da ist shorten keine gute Idee.

So dumm das zu einem solchen Kurs zu machen wird hoffentlich keiner der Europäer sein. Aber Milliarden ist allein der Markenname sicher schon wert.

  

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>>mE wird irgendwann Musk Tesla einem großen Automobilhersteller
>>umhängen - da ist shorten keine gute Idee.
>
>So dumm das zu einem solchen Kurs zu machen wird hoffentlich
>keiner der Europäer sein. Aber Milliarden ist allein der
>Markenname sicher schon wert.

Ja, das ist ein plausibles Szenario, das die Mühen der Ebene an einen Spezialisten delegieren würde.

Der Markenwert ist natürlich gegeben, kann aber in der Praxis schrumpfen, wenn Probleme sich häufen - und je länger die großen Hersteller an eigenen Lösungen arbeiten, desto geringer wird das Interesse sein, sich zu einem Luxuspreis ein Problem zu holen. Insofern sehe ich da ein Zeitfenster für einen Verkauf ohne Chapter 11 nicht mehr so groß. Natürlich kann auch sein, dass auf wunderbare Weise auch dieser knowhow- und personalintensive Bereich in den Griff gekriegt wird. Das Geld ist halt ein Problem...

Davon abgesehen hat Musk Tesla ja zu einem Cash aus Phantasie-Generator für fast alles entwickelt (außer SpaceX), das Solarpaneldesaster wird auch niemand brauchen. Einfach ist diese Lösung also nicht, auch wenn sie vernünftig klingt.

Und dann ist da noch die Frage des Egos - kann er sich davon trennen oder ist das sein "Baby"? Fix ist - die Spannung steigt de facto täglich

  

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>Davon abgesehen hat Musk Tesla ja zu einem Cash aus
>Phantasie-Generator für fast alles entwickelt (außer SpaceX),
>das Solarpaneldesaster wird auch niemand brauchen. Einfach ist
>diese Lösung also nicht, auch wenn sie vernünftig klingt.

Also im neunen Tesla sind angeblich SpaceX Materialien und Erkenntnisse...

  

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Star-Unternehmer Elon Musk ist vom Vorwurf der Verleumdung freigesprochen worden, nachdem er einen Rettungstaucher als "pädophilen Kerl" bezeichnet hat.

Der amerikanische Star-Unternehmer Elon Musk ist vom Vorwurf der Verleumdung freigesprochen worden, nachdem er einen Rettungstaucher als "pädophilen Kerl" bezeichnet hat. Die von US-Medien veröffentlichte Entscheidung einer Jury in Los Angeles am Freitag beendete einen kurzen Prozess. "Mein Glaube an die Menschheit ist wieder hergestellt", kommentierte Musk das Urteil laut der "New York Times".

https://www.diepresse.com/5734761/elon-musk-nach-padophilie-stichelei-auf-twitter-freiges prochen

  

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Tesla will in Brandenburg 500.000 E-Autos im Jahr bauen

Die "Bild"-Zeitung berichtete am Mittwoch unter Berufung auf Planungsunterlagen des Unternehmens, in der Gemeinde Grünheide östlich von Berlin sollten 10.000 Arbeitsplätze entstehen und im Jahr 500.000 E-Autos des kompakten Tesla Model 3 und des SUV Model Y gebaut werden.

Das gesamte Gelände, das Tesla nutzen wolle, umfasse 300 Hektar oder drei Millionen Quadratmeter, was 420 Fußballfeldern entspreche.

https://www.diepresse.com/5736806/tesla-will-in-brandenburg-500000-e-autos-im-jahr-bauen< /a>

  

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EPA range for the Porsche Turbo was released yesterday. It comes in at 201 miles (323 km). This was quite a surprise to many of us who talk about the EV market because Porsche had been guiding toward a range closer to 300 miles. This makes me incredibly concerned for legacy auto because they have yet to produce a vehicle that is competitive to Tesla’s range. And we all know that in December 2019 EV range is king. Before I go into why traditional auto could be screwed, I want to preface this video by stating things: As I stated in my Audi e-tron video, 200 miles is sufficient for most people’s daily commutes. I really love the offerings of most EVs on the market currently. I’ve had a chance to review most of them this year. They all have their place in the market but when you look at how many years they’ve had to develop a viable market product, how far non-Tesla EVs go on a single charge, and their respective miles per kWh, it’s difficult for me to not see them as a middle school track team team up against a Olympians. This is particularly true for the Taycan Turbo - Porsche’s performance Taycan. The starting price for the Taycan Turbo is nearly $151,000. For this price Porsche should have had zeros issues addressing both a competitive range and performance. You might be thinking about the Taycan’s 800v architecture that allows for high performance but it does not dismiss the fact that 201 miles is the baseline. The range will be significantly less than the 201 miles when pushing the vehicle hard, which means charging sooner. This is not just a high-end performance EV problem though. I’m seeing this across the board with legacy automakers: Audi e-tron: 204 and a 95 kWh pack, or 2.14 mi/kwh Porsche Taycan Turbo: 201, 93 kWh pack, or 2.2 mi/kwh Jaguar I-Pace: 234 with a 90 kWh pack, or 2.6 mi/kwh Ford Mach-E: *300 (unofficial) with a 99 kWh pack, or 3.03 mi/kwh Volvo Polestar 2: *275 (unofficial) with a 78 kWh, or 3.52 mi/kWh Nissan Leaf: 226, 62 kwh, 3.65 mi/kwh Mercedes EQC: *293 (unofficial) with a 80 kWh pack, or 3.7 mi/kwh Chevy Bolt: 259 and a 60 kWh pack, or 4.31 mi/kwh *One interesting side note is, as far as I can tell, they are all using LG Chem batteries. No EV that is in production to date has managed to surpass the 2012 Model S 85 kWh battery range of 265 miles. Tesla’s dominance can be further seen when you line up their top end range and performance vehicles with their competitors: *A point worth mentioning is that Tesla is expected to introduce their next generation batteries at their upcoming battery and powertrain investor day early 2020. This is very likely to further the gap. Why are legacy automakers SO far behind. Two reasons: They were slow to start their EV development. Elon said it best during a recent speech They’re not developing their own cells. Mark Ellis from Sandy Munro’s team explains it this way. My advice to legacy automakers: While tripping down on future battery R&D and producing their own battery cells, they need to find a way to license out Tesla’s older battery tech to shorten the immediate distance that exists. Because right now legacy automakers are being lapped several times over in the metaphorical track meet. Though this could be seen as empowering the market leader, the question they should be asking themselves is: can they afford not to license out Tesla’s tech?

  

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First, about the Porsche range: This is a high-speed track-focused cornering beast that is not optimized for range, other than up-time. Keep in mind that up-time is important. What’s the range of a Tesla that’s sitting still at the side of the road, waiting for a tow truck?



Tesla has the best “efficiency” (miles per kWh) of anyone in the industry, but that only counts when the car is actually working. I’m a man of leisure, but I may not be the only one doesn’t enjoy weekly trips to the service center, or sitting still at the side of the road, waiting for a tow truck.



If you want to look at an electric car that is focused on miles-per-kWh efficiency, consider something like the Hyundai Ioniq, which is one of the best-selling EVs in Europe and of course in its home market, Korea. It has an electric efficiency that is very close to the Tesla Model 3. Other EVs such as the Kia Niro and Hyundai Kona are not as focused on efficiency (they’re taller and squarer crossovers), but their efficiency numbers are not too far behind either.



Range is only good if it doesn’t come with any tradeoffs, such as an impractical body style or lack of QRD (quality, reliability and durability). Non-Tesla automakers are generally unwilling to compromise on QRD. Therefore, they are a bit more careful in taking risks to squeeze out that extra few percentages of range.

  

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>First, about the Porsche range: This is a high-speed
>track-focused cornering beast that is not optimized for range,
>other than up-time.

Die wenigsten Leute die einen sportlichen Porsche besitzen fahren mit dem große Distanzen. Dafür hat man andere Fahrzeuge die bequemer sind.

  

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>>First, about the Porsche range: This is a high-speed
>>track-focused cornering beast that is not optimized for
>range,
>>other than up-time.
>
>Die wenigsten Leute die einen sportlichen Porsche besitzen
>fahren mit dem große Distanzen. Dafür hat man andere Fahrzeuge
>die bequemer sind.


Ach, mit einem Porsche fährt man auch weit sehr bequem.

P.S.: Nicht das ich einen hätte, aber Porsche bietet mehrtägige Ausfahrten in Gruppen ab Zuffenhausen an. Mein Leader von Porsche hat Funkgeräte an alle verteilt und uns dann immer den Gegenverkehr gefunkt. Rieesengaudi...Das heißt für uns, die anderen die wir die Pässe rauf so überholt haben waren etwas irritiert.

  

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>Ach, mit einem Porsche fährt man auch weit sehr bequem.
>
>P.S.: Nicht das ich einen hätte, aber Porsche bietet
>mehrtägige Ausfahrten in Gruppen ab Zuffenhausen an. Mein
>Leader von Porsche hat Funkgeräte an alle verteilt und uns
>dann immer den Gegenverkehr gefunkt. Rieesengaudi...Das heißt
>für uns, die anderen die wir die Pässe rauf so überholt haben
>waren etwas irritiert.

Zu finden übrigens hier: https://experience.porsche.com/de/travel

  

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Tesla steigt seit einiger Zeitstetig, schon über 400. Auch ohne News, werden da die Shorts skzessive rausgesqueezed?

  

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Es gibt schon immer wieder News, die belegen, daß Tesla technisch Jahre voraus ist. Beispielsweise die ernüchternden Realreichweiten-Tests mit dem Porsche Taycan.

Jedes Tesla-Modell ist, auch noch Jahre nach seiner Markteinführung, jedem einzelnen Konkurrenten in seiner Klasse überlegen.

Einzig in der Einsteiger-Klasse, die Tesla momentan nicht bedient, tummeln sich die Konkurrenten.

  

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Ich denke grad an den häßlichen kleinen chinesischen E-Transporter,
von der vorjährigen Automesse,
wo überall die Drähte rausgehängt sind,
wirklich unansehnlich

  

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Tesla Hits China Milestones With Tax Break, First Local Model 3

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. secured a tax break in China just days before the delivery of its first locally built cars, marking a major milestone for Elon Musk’s company as it pushes to expand in the world’s largest electric-vehicle market.

The China-built Model 3 was included Friday on a list of vehicles qualifying for an exemption from a 10% purchase tax in the country. The first 15 units of Model 3 sedans assembled at Tesla’s new multi-billion-dollar Shanghai plant -- its first outside the U.S. -- will be delivered to company employees on Dec. 30, a Tesla representative said by phone.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-deliver-first-china-built-084021484.html

  

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(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. tumbled 4.9%, its biggest drop in a month, after analysts at Cowen said vehicle deliveries may miss the company’s target this year as Model 3 demand slumps.

“Excluding the Netherlands and China, we expect Model 3 deliveries to be down 9% quarter over quarter and 7% year over year in the fourth quarter, which highlights the demand saturation we are seeing across most mature markets as we shift from pent-up demand to steady flow demand,” analyst Jeffrey Osborne wrote in a note dated Dec. 29. Tesla may deliver some 356,000 vehicles for this year, slightly below the target range of 360,000 to 400,000, he said.

At the same time, Cowen raised its fourth-quarter delivery estimate to 101,000 from 95,000 to reflect better expectations for the Netherlands and China. Osborne’s 15,000 Model S/X expectation trails the company’s 20,000, while his 85,300 Model 3 forecast is roughly in line with consensus estimates.

Cowen’s view contrasted with optimism at Wedbush, as analyst Dan Ives in a separate note looking ahead to 2020 predicted that “Tesla will find success in China with Giga 3 and potentially hit the key 100,000 delivery number quicker than the U.S./Europe trajectory and be a demand tailwind.”

Cowen’s Osborne flagged a host of issues facing Tesla, including “pricing and mix issues that we believe will affect margins and profitability in the fourth quarter.” He’s also still skeptical about long-term demand in China, though “optimism ahead of the China factory launch has been a key reason for the stock’s recent performance.”

He noted that the best-selling electric vehicle in China this year through October, BAIC’s EU Series, “has sold less than 2,000 vehicles per week and the top 5 models (all local brands) combined for less than 6,000 vehicles per week.” Those models, he said, all cost about one-quarter to three-quarters less than what the China-made Model 3 is expected to cost; that will “also be more expensive than 90% of China vehicles sold in 2018.”

“While Tesla has built a very dedicated fan base that has been willing to excuse poor build quality, customer service, and service infrastructure, we continue to be skeptical around broader adoption,” Osborne said. He rates the shares underperform with a price target of $210, implying a 51% decrease. Of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 15 analysts rate the shares the equivalent of a sell, while 11 rate it buy and 10 hold, with an average price target of $297.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-miss-delivery-goal-demand-135846851.html

  

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Dank starkem Endspurt schafft Tesla sein Jahresziel

In den letzten drei Monaten hat der Autobauer 112.000 Fahrzeuge verkauft. Die Aktie zieht an.

Der US-Elektroautobauer Tesla hat im vierten Quartal 2019 mehr Fahrzeuge ausgeliefert als erwartet und seine Jahresziele so doch noch erreicht. In den drei Monaten bis Ende Dezember wurden weltweit 112.000 Autos an die Kundschaft gebracht, wie Tesla am Freitag in Palo Alto mitteilte. Der Großteil entfiel mit 92.550 Stück auf Teslas günstigstes Fahrzeug, das Model 3, mit dem die Firma von Tech-Milliardär Elon Musk den Massenmarkt erobern will.

Im gesamten abgelaufenen Jahr lieferte das Unternehmen rund 367.500 Fahrzeuge aus. Damit steigerte sich Tesla um 50 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr und schaffte es dank des starken Endspurts, 2019 seine Zielspanne von 360.000 bis 400.000 zu erreichen.

Auch bei der Fertigung gelang im Schlussquartal mit knapp 105.000 hergestellten Autos ein neuer Bestwert. Teslas Aktien stiegen vorbörslich spürbar, Analysten hatten mit deutlich weniger Auslieferungen gerechnet.

https://www.diepresse.com/5746706/dank-starkem-endspurt-schafft-tesla-sein-jahresziel

  

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Musk’s moment of truth arrives as Made-in-China Teslas roll out
...

EV sales plunged 42% in China in November as the government handouts that lowered sticker prices receded significantly.

That means Musk and his team are looking at a market that’s very different from mid-2018, when the decision to build a Shanghai plant was announced. Back then, the industry’s sales were growing at a roughly 100% clip.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/01/05/musks-moment-of-truth-arrives-as-made -in-china-teslas-roll-out

  

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>Musk’s moment of truth arrives as Made-in-China Teslas roll
>out
>...
>
>EV sales plunged 42% in China in November as the government
>handouts that lowered sticker prices receded significantly.
>
>That means Musk and his team are looking at a market that’s
>very different from mid-2018, when the decision to build a
>Shanghai plant was announced. Back then, the industry’s sales
>were growing at a roughly 100% clip.
>

Dh. Es gibt dort immer noch Steigerungsraten über den weltweiten Markt...

  

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Meine Antwort auf diesen Beitrag


>Jeder Bastler kann ein E-Auto bauen.
Wie byronwien schon geschrieben hat, ist das Sony-Auto kein Bastelergebnis, sondern mit einem fähigen Partner gebaut worden.


Das bezweifle ich nicht. Es ist sicher mehr als wenn eine Bastlerwerkstätte einen Oldtimer auf Elektroantrieb umbaut.

Aber letztlich ist es ein Prototyp und eine Blackbox. Ich habe in den letzten Jahren unglaublich viele Prototypen und Ankündigungen gesehen, von denen man nachher nie wieder etwas gehört hat, daß ich solche Präsentationen nicht besonders ernst nehme. Ich glaube nicht, daß Sony plötzlich Autos bauen will. Meine Vermutung ist, daß dieses Auto dazu dienen soll, sich als Zulieferer zu positionieren.


>Aber Tesla baut die mit Abstand besten und hat Jahre Vorsprung.
Wegen der größeren Reichweite? Größerer Akku = mehr Reichweite. Bei manchen Herstellern ist der Akku ein eher schlechter Kompromiss. Tesla ist halt kompromisslos.
Wegen autonomem Fahren bzw. Assistenzsystemen? Da hat Tesla eine gute Strategie. Wie Google (und andere) bei Suchanfragenbeantwortung, Spracherkennung, Textübersetzung usw. wird die KI mit Kundendaten trainiert, die von den Kunden ohne Wissen oder ohne Verständnis bereitgestellt werden. Aber auch andere arbeiten daran.
Bei sonstigen PKW-Technologien (u.a. Sicherheit) sind "traditionelle" Hersteller dank mehr Erfahrung besser aufgestellt.


Bei Sicherheit sehe ich Tesla durchaus gut aufgestellt. Das Modell S ist so sicher, daß tödliche Unfälle so selten sind, daß sie immer noch Schlagzeilen machen, egal wo in der Welt sie passieren.

Bei der Reichweite gebe ich Dir recht, das ist eine Frage der Prioritätensetzung und kopierbar.
Wo Tesla wieder hervorragend ist, ist die Aerodynamik und damit die Autobahntauglichkeit. Auch das wäre eigentlich kopierbar, aber die Konkurrenz bekommt es trotzdem nicht hin.
Der Autopilot ist ein sehr gutes Assistenzsystem. Die Kritik richtet sich zu Unrecht gegen den Namen. Ich finde den Namen durchaus passend, denn auch ein Flugzeug fliegt mit Autopilot nicht den Landeanflug auf Innsbruck, sondern gerade Linie auf Reiseflughöhe. Quasi Autobahn.


Bezüglich Verkaufszahlen sieht es der Markt in Österreich (2019) so:
- knapp 25% Tesla Model 3, an dem Telsa nicht viel (wenn überhaupt) verdienen dürfte
- 4% Tesla Model S - gut aber teuer
- 71% E-Modelle traditioneller Autobauer - Tendenz steigend


Das liegt mE daran, daß Tesla keinen Kleinwagen im Angebot hat. Das derzeit kleinste Fahrzeug, der Dreier, hat die Größe eines Nissan Leaf und ist eindeutig größer als die viel verkauften Modelle Golf und Zoe. Außer im Luxussegment gibt es bisher wenig Überschneidungen mit anderen Anbietern.

Wenn der Y kommt, und von VW der id.3, wird es wieder anders ausschauen.

Selbst wenn Tesla Marktanteile im Elektrosegment verliert: Das Elektrosegment macht europaweit noch keine 2% des des Gesamtmarktes aus. Wenn das in den nächsten paar Jahren auf 20% steigt, ist auch mit halbiertem Marktanteil noch ein Wachstum von 400% drinnen.

  

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>Der Autopilot ist ein sehr gutes Assistenzsystem. Die Kritik
>richtet sich zu Unrecht gegen den Namen. Ich finde den Namen
>durchaus passend, denn auch ein Flugzeug fliegt mit Autopilot
>nicht den Landeanflug auf Innsbruck, sondern gerade Linie auf
>Reiseflughöhe. Quasi Autobahn.


Könnte es meines Wissens aber, wobei das viel leichter ist als im Stadtverkehr zu fahren.

  

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>Ich habe in den letzten Jahren unglaublich viele Prototypen und
>Ankündigungen gesehen, von denen man nachher nie wieder etwas
>gehört hat, daß ich solche Präsentationen nicht besonders
>ernst nehme.
Das ist doch in der Autobranche normal.

>Bei Sicherheit sehe ich Tesla durchaus gut aufgestellt.
Das habe ich wohl verwechselt - oder sie hatten nur anfangs Probleme.

>Das liegt mE daran, daß Tesla keinen Kleinwagen im Angebot
>hat. Das derzeit kleinste Fahrzeug, der Dreier, hat die Größe
>eines Nissan Leaf und ist eindeutig größer als die viel
>verkauften Modelle Golf und Zoe.
Also den Leaf (meiner Schwester) hätte ich für einen Kleinwagen gehalten.

>Selbst wenn Tesla Marktanteile im Elektrosegment verliert: Das
>Elektrosegment macht europaweit noch keine 2% des des
>Gesamtmarktes aus. Wenn das in den nächsten paar Jahren auf
>20% steigt, ist auch mit halbiertem Marktanteil noch ein
>Wachstum von 400% drinnen.
Wenn ich auf die schnelle die richtigen aktuellen Zahlen gefunden habe, verkauft VW derzeit ca. zehnmal so viele Fahrzeuge wie Tesla. Bei einer Verfünffachung wären es immer noch doppelt so viele. Tesla hat aber jetzt schon annähernd die Marktkapitalisierung von VW, trotz der Anlaufkosten (Bau von Fabriken, Aufbau des Vertriebsnetzes, ...).

  

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An interesting article in today’s WaPo: Teslas still go much farther on a single charge than their competitors. But the strategy carries risks. Excerpt:



Tesla is leading the electric vehicle race because it has more high-powered battery tech — and it takes more risks. For more than a decade, Tesla has been designing battery-powered vehicles from the ground up and using software to make the batteries more efficient. It has scrapped many weighty, traditional luxury features in favor of aerodynamics, taken measures such as ditching multi-gear transmissions in favor of dual motors programmed to send varying power ratios to the front and rear wheels.



But car industry experts also say the company has taken more risks than traditional automakers, making its batteries ever-denser and out of different materials than competitors. Some point to a handful of spontaneous battery fires under investigation by federal regulators as potential fallout. And it’s too soon to know — as with any new vehicle — what kind of durability the vehicles may offer in the long run. Even the oldest Tesla sedans have been on the road for less than eight years.



Battery range has helped Tesla maintain its grip on the electric vehicle market at nearly 60 percent of new sales in the first nine months of 2019, according to data from the website InsideEVs, as new electric vehicle models from at least four major car companies have hit the U.S. market over the past year or so, and the company gears up to face its first real challenge.



Tesla floats fully self-driving cars as soon as this year. Many are worried about what that will unleash.



“My belief is that Tesla is more willing to risk their battery not lasting 8 to 10 years and just dealing with the consequences on the back-end,” said Michael Ramsey, a senior director and analyst specializing in the evolution of the auto industry with Gartner’s CIO Research Group. “Part of their success is related to their willingness to go way past what the industry would normally would do,” he said.

  

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Two of my readers had a spirited debate, which I think captures well the best bull and bear arguments. First, my bullish reader wrote:


Tesla will kill ICE demand. New vehicle market is 85 million a year. It seems Tesla is going to rule this market. I don't understand why many people can't see this. I was an early investor in Netflix, Apple and Amazon. The similarity is so obvious. Something new is so much better than the old, it's just going to kill the old industry. In the end, Netflix killed Blockbuster, Apple killed Nokia, Amazon killed lots of physical stores. Blockbuster tried to do online streaming, failed. Nokia tried to develop smart phones, failed. Barnes and Noble tried to sell online, they even developed an e-reader, failed. When Apple introduced iPhone in exactly 13 years ago, its stock jumped, from $12 to $12.50. I was thinking this thing called iPhone will rule the world, everyone will buy an iPhone. They could make hundreds of billions dollars from iPhone alone. Wall Street was saying that the iPhone wouln't take much market share next quarter (2007).... they were short sighted. Today, Apple is above $300 a share, plus all the dividends. Today, Tesla doesn't make much money from each car, gross margin only 18%, net margin negative. But if you look at the longer term picture, Tesla will sell 500 million EVs with $10k profit from each car. That's 5 trillion dollars profit from vehicle alone, not to add the energy side and ride sharing network.



Right now every company is pouring so much money into EV and autonomous driving, because if they don't do it, their business will be gone in two years. They have to change to survive. But can they build better products than Tesla? That's the question. If someone can build better product at lower cost, I would sell TSLA immediately.



The reality is the contrary. Tesla's Model Y all-in cost less than $30k, battery lasts 1 million miles, full self-driving features coming this year, large charging network adding hundreds more stations every quarter, all buyers love their Tesla so much. Young people beg their parents to buy Tesla next. After they bought it, they say it's the best fun product they ever bought. They LOVE it. I can never understand those bearish Wall Street analysts. Do they know how to analyze these things? Do they talk to the buyers?



No other companies can compete with Tesla's Model Y, not even remotely, on both cost and performance. Watch Model Y getting 1 million demand out of the door, and increase to 10 million a year by 2027.



About the pickup truck. Wall Street thinks it's ugly, nobody will buy it, but Tesla probably already has a half million reservations. Tesla's pickup truck will be so much better than all the competition, both ICE and EV, I predict other programs will shut down because they can't compete with the Cybertruck. I do think Wall Street in general needs to learn how to evaluate this kind of company. They need engineering talent. They think Rivian, Ford, VW, etc. will be able to compete with Tesla on EVs. Watch this unfold, all of them will fail badly. I hope they can do well, but business is tough, they can't get the cost level near Tesla, they can't compete as the overall package.



It's fun time. People like me invested in Tesla at $20, $25, $30... we understand everything about this business and the competition. We have been right all along, shorts have been wrong in every step. What make you think those shorts will get right in the next 10 years? The chance for them to be right is very low.



I could be wrong too, just like everyone else. So far I have been right on lots of the companies, because I know what's important, what's not important. In the end Tesla will become a company larger than Apple. Those who missed the whole run really should regret why they missed the train when so many people tell them they are wrong.



Thanks for all your emails.



The other replied:



Ummmm…



1. Not that it necessarily will matter in 2020 and beyond, but in Tesla’s most recently reported quarter (September 2019), revenues were down 8% and profit fell 54% from the prior year. That put Tesla in the enviable position of being perhaps the most anti-growth automaker in the world. Q4 2019? Revenue should be approximately flat with last year’s $7.2 billion. Basically, flat year over year. Tesla was a strong growth story until the middle of 2019, and perhaps it will become on again in 2020 -- but it’s not been one as of late. Investors seem to operate in a fact-free environment right now.

2. Some like Tesla’s product; others don’t -- and some like it until their first or second repair/tow event. Once Tesla goes beyond the early adopters, patience with laughable quality, reliability and service issues, may come back to haunt the company just like it did with the U.S. automakers in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and indeed into the 2000s.

3. We already saw how the Audi eTron in particular, and the Jaguar i-Pace to some extent, punctured Tesla’s Model X and S sales, especially in Europe. In 2019, Audi eTron out-sold Tesla Model S by 2:1 in Europe, and the Model X by more than 2:1: http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/Europe In other words, the Audi eTron out-sold Tesla Model X and S *combined* in Europe in 2019. Tesla’s significantly less expensive Model 3 may still rule the sheer units delivered in 2020, but the onslaught of $20,000 to $40,000 BEV competitors arriving in Europe mid-late 2020 and slightly thereafter, will ensure the Model 3’s demise in Europe in 2021.

4. Model Y? It may get off to a good start in 2020, but that will change with all the competitors coming online only months later, if even that. In the meantime, Audi, Jaguar and Mercedes will simply lower the prices of their all-electric SUVs, currently in the $70,000 to $75,000 starting price range, to take customers away from the Model Y -- in Europe (not in the U.S., where the de-facto EV quotas are as stringent in 2020).



Tesla promised “feature-complete” full-self-driving (FSD) by the end of 2019. It did not happen. In fact, it didn’t come within decades of happening. A Tesla today is less capable of driving itself from A to B than my house cat. Forget some sort of government approval (none needed!), there will not be any driverless cars (Level 5, as Elon Musk promised, specifically) from Tesla -- or any other automaker -- in the market for many decades to come. Not in our lifetime. This may prove to be Tesla’s biggest liability of them all, having collected money from this already.

Bottom line: Tesla fanboys seem largely unfamiliar with most of the 200 competitive models that will be entering the market over the next 36 months. Some of them will be wonderful, others merely good, yet others unremarkable and some perhaps even bad. Their cumulative weight of their impact on industry profit margins will, however, be severe.

Tesla wants to sell their so-and-so vehicle for $40,000? “Fine, we’ll sell our equivalent vehicle for $30,000. Or $20,000.” At that point, it doesn’t matter how “good” Tesla’s vehicle is.

That’s not a good recipe for revenue or profit growth.

Whitney Tilson

  

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Ich bin irgendwo in der Mitte.

Auch wenn Tesla einmal 5 Modelle anbietet, kann es damit nicht den Großteil des Marktes abdecken. Der Automarkt besteht aus viel mehr Subsegmenten als z.B. der Smartphone-Markt. Selbst der größte, eigentlich alle wichtigen Segmente abdeckende Anbieter Volkswagen kommt in Europa auf nicht mehr als 10-15% Marktanteil. Ein alles dominierender Autohersteller ist unwahrscheinlich. Die Economies of Scale sind nicht so stark ausgeprägt wie beispielsweise bei Amazon.

Auf der anderen Seite hat Tesla gute Produkte, eine wachsende Fangemeinde, die durchaus bereit ist, es sich etwas kosten zu lassen, dabei zu sein. Hier passt der Vergleich mit Apple. Wer einen Tesla will, vergleicht vermutlich vor allem die verschiedenen Tesla-Modelle und schaut nicht, ob er mit einem Renault Zoe oder einem VW id.3 vielleicht mehr Auto für weniger Geld bekäme.

  

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>It's fun time. People like me invested in Tesla at $20, $25,
>$30... we understand everything about this business and the
>competition.


Hybris. Wenn das der typische Bulle sein sollte, hoffe ich die Germanen treten Tesla in den A...

  

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>>It's fun time. People like me invested in Tesla at $20,
>$25,
>>$30... we understand everything about this business and
>the
>>competition.
>
>
>Hybris. Wenn das der typische Bulle sein sollte, hoffe ich die
>Germanen treten Tesla in den A...

Ich leg noch etwas nach...short 517. Mal schauen was Musk wieder aus dem Hut zaubert.

  

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esla: 4 Questions Rival Automakers Are Asking About the EV Maker

Based on informal discussions I had with many mid-to-high level executives at some of Tesla's large automotive rivals, here are the top questions they had:

No. 1 : Why are investors paying up for Tesla when its revenue growth has stalled?

https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/tesla-questions-rivals-have-ces

  

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This article compares the cost of purchasing and fueling a Tesla Model 3 vs. a Toyota Camry LE hybrid.

The Toyota costs $11,805 less, and the cost per mile of fueling it is 5 cents per mile, compared to 7 cents per mile for the Tesla Model 3.

For fuel prices, I'm using today’s nationwide average gasoline price of $2.59 per gallon and $0.28 per kWh that Tesla charges at its Supercharger stations.

Even if electricity were 100% free, it would take 20 years for the Tesla to pay off the Toyota’s $11,805 price advantage.

But of course electricity isn’t free, and the $11,805 also carries an opportunity cost, which at 5% is almost $600 per year or similar to the Toyota’s entire annual gasoline cost.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4316505-electricity-shock-toyota-camry-cheaper-to-fuel-t esla-model-3

  

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Larry Ellison’s $1 Billion Tesla Bet Is Paying Off After a Wild Ride



Larry Ellison’s faith in Tesla Inc. and his friend Elon Musk is being rewarded.



The Oracle Corp. chairman bought 3 million shares of the electric-vehicle maker before joining Tesla’s board in December 2018. The stake -- worth $1 billion at the time -- is now worth more than $1.6 billion. The stock has surged 25% in just the first two weeks of 2020 as fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries exceeded estimates and Musk started handing over locally assembled cars to customers in China.



For most of 2019, Ellison’s investment was floundering as Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, bounced from crisis to crisis and Wall Street cast skepticism on consumer demand. On the day Ellison’s holding and his appointment to the board were disclosed, the shares closed at $333.87. By June, they had plunged to a low $176.99. On Tuesday, the stock rose as much as 4.3% at the open to a new intraday high of $547.41.



The rally is bringing Tesla even closer to a $100 billion market capitalization, the threshold that would unlock the first tranche of Musk’s all-or-nothing pay package approved in March 2018. The company will have to sustain that value for months for the CEO to get his award worth around $346 million.



At least one investor may have less reason to rejoice. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund hedged most of its 5% stake in Tesla through an arrangement with JPMorgan Chase & Co. last January, according to the Financial Times. That helped protect gains when the share price was below about $350, but the kingdom would have missed out on the recent rally, assuming the hedge remained in place.



Musk himself has most to cheer. His fortune has swelled by $3.9 billion so far this month through Monday, boosting his net worth to $31.5 billion and making him the world’s 28th-richest person, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

  

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Mit Tesla erstmals E-Auto unter den Top-5 in der Schweiz

Mit dem Tesla Model 3 ist erstmals ein Elektroauto in die Top-5 der meistverkauften Automodelle vorgefahren. Gleichzeitig weist Golf deutliche Bremsspuren auf. Der langjährige Kassenschlager ist auf Platz 3 zurückgefallen.

Vom Elektroauto des US-Herstellers wurden in der Schweiz gut 5.000 Stück verkauft.

https://www.diepresse.com/5752687/mit-tesla-erstmals-e-auto-unter-den-top-5-in-der-schwei z

  

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>Mit Tesla erstmals E-Auto unter den Top-5 in der Schweiz
>
>Mit dem Tesla Model 3 ist erstmals ein Elektroauto in die
>Top-5 der meistverkauften Automodelle vorgefahren.
>Gleichzeitig weist Golf deutliche Bremsspuren auf. Der
>langjährige Kassenschlager ist auf Platz 3 zurückgefallen.
>
>Vom Elektroauto des US-Herstellers wurden in der Schweiz gut
>5.000 Stück verkauft.
>

Dort gibt es halt ein vernünftiges Gehaltsniveau. Das merkt man auch in der Autowahl.

  

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There is no “unintended acceleration” in Tesla vehicles

The Tesla Team January 20, 2020

This petition is completely false and was brought by a Tesla short-seller. We investigate every single incident where the driver alleges to us that their vehicle accelerated contrary to their input, and in every case where we had the vehicle's data, we confirmed that the car operated as designed. In other words, the car accelerates if, and only if, the driver told it to do so, and it slows or stops when the driver applies the brake.

While accidents caused by a mistaken press of the accelerator pedal have been alleged for nearly every make/model of vehicle on the road, the accelerator pedals in Model S, X and 3 vehicles have two independent position sensors, and if there is any error, the system defaults to cut off motor torque. Likewise, applying the brake pedal simultaneously with the accelerator pedal will override the accelerator pedal input and cut off motor torque, and regardless of the torque, sustained braking will stop the car. Unique to Tesla, we also use the Autopilot sensor suite to help distinguish potential pedal misapplications and cut torque to mitigate or prevent accidents when we’re confident the driver’s input was unintentional. Each system is independent and records data, so we can examine exactly what happened.

We are transparent with NHTSA, and routinely review customer complaints of unintended acceleration with them. Over the past several years, we discussed with NHTSA the majority of the complaints alleged in the petition. In every case we reviewed with them, the data proved the vehicle functioned properly.

  

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mE interessante Gedanken von einem Bullen:

My analyst Kevin responds to my friend’s arguments in a recent email:

I agree with you 100% that auto executives are evaluated by profits and none of them in their right mind would want to sell any more money losing EVs than is legally mandated. This is precisely the reason Tesla is still the leader in EVs and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Incentives drive everything and, although you tried to rip my thoughts to shreds on this in the past, it turned what I wrote last year came true: https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/07/tesla-lead-integration-of-hardware-and-software/

Difficult to know how much of this was pure luck, but for now, I was still right on nearly everything I predicted.


With battery costs continuing to decrease, don’t you believe EVs can eventually be profitable? Let’s discuss this.


Tesla’s cars are clearly more efficient than the legacy automakers on any measure. For example, the Model X gets 91 more miles of EPA range relative to the Audi e-tron and 121 more than the Jaguar I-Pace - using a battery that’s only marginally larger. https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a28992689/manufacturers-are-emphasizing-efficien cy-more-than-ever/



Some Tesla bears claim that they chose to use a more volatile chemistry that increases the risk of battery fires and decreases the longevity of the pack. OK, let’s assume this is true and Tesla chose this path in order to take this risk in order to gain an enormous benefit. What is this benefit? Profits.


That’s right, I am claiming that Tesla’s choice of battery chemistry and pack design will guarantee that it is the first company on Earth to have a profitable EV program. Before you fall off your chair, let me explain.


Battery cells are essentially commoditized, but these cells are arranged into modules and then these modules are organized into the battery pack. The way these cells are organized into modules and packs is not commoditized and Tesla seems to have a very unique way of doing this. Yet, the legacy automakers should be able to reverse engineer this by now so why haven’t they? Without getting too deep into the weeds lets just say that even if they did, they still wouldn’t have the same efficiency as Tesla’s packs because legacy auto in aggregate decided to use lower energy dense cells claiming to optimize for safety and longevity.


We can discuss the pros and cons of this approach for hours, but let me just get back to the point that this strategy by Tesla will enable them to be the first profitable EV maker. It turns out, using the most energy dense cell and enabling this through battery module and battery pack innovations has ENORMOUS benefits, but is extremely difficult to do. I can’t blame legacy auto for not making these immense efforts and investments towards a money losing product that would only cut into their profitable ICE vehicles – and of course their stock buybacks, EPS, and stock options.


Tesla has the most efficient cars by far and this enables them to have the longest range EVs and, in turn, use materially less kWh of batteries for any given range and weight. To be clear, this is also enabled by their ability to design EVs from the ground up with very low drag coefficients (drag goes up exponentially with speed) and many other optimizations that have been made over the years by some of the best engineers in the world with properly aligned incentives. Whatever the “secret sauce” is, however, this efficiency allows them to use materially less kWh of batteries for any given range and weight. Since batteries are heavy, this advantage gives them an even more substantial lead in range and cost. See this “core efficiency” table that takes into account all the factors that matter in a more accurate way of measuring efficiency: https://i.imgur.com/bU71ygq.png



In order to truly take full advantage of this dynamic, however, Tesla needs to sufficiently scale the production of battery packs in order to continue to bring down the cost/kWh. Luckily, Tesla is now the largest battery pack producer in the world and all indications lead to the conclusion that they have the lowest cost/kWh at a pack level of any manufacturer in the world. This wouldn’t have been possible if the bears were right and the “demand cliff” came to pass last year, but they were wrong and I believe they will be wrong again in 2020 and beyond.


So, they have the lowest cost per kWh, they need the least kWh per given EV range and weight, AND they have the ONLY, compelling, desirable large scale EV in the world. Put these all together and what do you get? Profits. Keep in mind this is before implementing new innovations that we are sure to see soon during their upcoming battery and powertrain investor day.


Rumors are the first Model Y deliveries will take place in 2 weeks. This product will be even more profitable than the Model 3. Analyst estimates are insanely too low for 2020 given Model Y production coming online and Gigafactory 3 continuing to ramp with Chinese demand through the roof. It is game over for the short case without even discussing Tesla’s enormous software advantage. With 20% of the float still short, it is extremely unlikely in my opinion that we have reached the top of this new trading range.


Did Musk and Tesla make this calculated bet on higher density cells for profits? Of course not. This goes back to the age-old debate on the purpose of a corporation. Is it truly just for profits and shareholders?


Tesla exists to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. This mission allows Musk to recruit the best talent in the world and everything at the company leads back to this goal. One of the only ways to achieve this goal is to make great products that people love and this is how Musk, for example, was able to convince his chief designer Franz von Holzhausen to leave his secure position at Mazda to join an incredibly risky Silicon Valley startup. This is similar to how Jony Ives almost quit his job at Apple until Steve Jobs came back and reinvigorated him by bringing the focus back to great products over just profits and saved the company from bankruptcy.



By the way, this strategy turned Apple into the second most profitable company in the world (do we really have to count Saudi Aramco?). In the words of Jack Welch, of all people, “On the face of it, shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world. Shareholder value is a result, not a strategy….Your main constituencies are your employees, your customers and your products.”

https://www.ft.com/content/294ff1f2-0f27-11de-ba10-0000779fd2ac#axzz1eiLpL2PZ



You are correct - the metric by which auto executives are evaluated is profitability and this “strategy” is driving legacy auto, pun intended, off a cliff. You have to give Herbert Diess, the CEO of VW, a lot of credit for realizing this. However, the transition into the car company of the future will be extremely difficult as he recently admitted:

https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2020/01/17/fire-speech-by-vw-ceo-diess-to-his-mana gers-full-transcript/



Of course saying profits and Tesla in the same sentence will bring on a lot of laughs, but I am quite certain that they are on the cusp of breaking through a fixed cost ceiling that – combined with continued insatiable demand for the product – will enable structural profitability and this is what the market has recently realized.

WhitneyTilson

  

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und eine ebenfalls interessante Antwort darauf:

Yet, the legacy automakers should be able to reverse engineer this by now so why haven’t they?”

-- I have asked them. They have all torn down dozens of Teslas starting already in 2012, and their conclusion is uniform: Tesla’s way of assembling its packs does not pass their safety tests, and it makes the pack very expensive to repair, if there’s a defective cell or equivalent. Automakers don’t like recalls, they don’t like to be sued for preventable deaths, and they don’t like long-term costs and issues that could impact their long-term reputations.



“I can’t blame legacy auto for not making these immense efforts and investments towards a money losing product that would only cut into their profitable ICE vehicles”



-- That’s ludicrous per definition, of course. If an automaker had a better way of doing it, they would do it. They cannibalize themselves all the time. The BMW X3 cannibalizes the BMW 3, for many years their diesel engines cannibalized their gasoline engines. To the other point, however -- not wanting to make loss-making products, that’s obviously true. But that’s separate from somehow holding back R&D.



“very low drag coefficients”


Having the lowest possible drag coefficient may be a good thing -- all other things equal. However, all other things are not equal. A rain drop has the lowest possible drag coefficient -- but people don’t like to drive around in rain drops with wheels. Rather, the most popular light vehicles in the U.S. market today are the ones with the *worst* drag coefficient: Pickup trucks and the Jeep Wrangler, for example. Take the Audi eTron, for example. Audi could have made it with a lower drag coefficient. Their designers had a proposal for that. The people who are actually responsible for selling the vehicle, however, voted for a version of the car that was a lot more square, tall and upright. Why? Because that’s what most customers want. About those door handles? Audi’s top priority is the ease by which first responders can get into the vehicle in the case of an accident. Tesla’s first priority is aerodynamics, which has the negative side-effect of increasing the probability of the vehicle being transformed into a mobile crematorium: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/979895766880841733?



“all indications lead to the conclusion that they have the lowest cost/kWh at a pack level of any manufacturer in the world”



-- They’re the single largest one. What’s the cost advantage of that? Nobody knows, because there are only manufacturer claims, and nobody should trust any of them, especially in this area. What automakers do tell me is this: The scale benefits of battery (cell and pack) production are achieved relatively quickly, at fairly “modest” (undefined) volume. Why? Because the process is almost completely automated. At a fairly modest production volume, you have already squeezed out 97% or whatever, of the scale benefits.



One analogy to the battery scale benefits, is the final assembly of the car itself. While there are a handful of car factories in the world where a variety of buildings have been jammed together to create capacity of anywhere from 600,000 to little over 900,000 vehicles per year, produced -- it’s not what anyone is building brand new today.



Basically, automakers have come to realize that under any but the most unusual conditions, it does not make sense to build a new factory that makes more than 300,000 cars per year. The range for newly announced car factories is 150,000 to 300,000 per year, in almost all cases. Even Tesla’s new factory in Shanghai isn’t likely to make more than 150,000 cars per year anytime soon -- and certainly not more than 300,000 even in the longer run.



The point is simply this: Perhaps just like with the car’s final assembly itself, battery production is also reaching its “full scale” benefits at some number that isn’t counted in the millions of units per year. I don’t know what that number is, but automakers tell me that they get to very close to 100% scale benefits at a much smaller number than is generally believed. Battery cell-makers such as LG, Samsung, SKI, CATL and Panasonic are perfectly capable of figuring this out.



“Rumors are the first Model Y deliveries will take place in 2 weeks.”



-- Yes, could be, at least under Tesla’s definition of delivering what other automakers call “pre-production validation test units” and calling that “deliveries.” Other automakers crush these cars once their employees first have driven a few hundred of them 12-24 months., before actual production begins. Tesla knows it’s dealing with a generalist press and fanboys, so it releases its guinea pigs onto an unsuspecting public and calls it a victory: https://www.instagram.com/p/B7dP25IhDHP/



That said, I think the Model Y looks very good. I have seen it a few times in person, in the wild, and I think the design is very well executed -- just like I also like all the other Teslas to date, 3, S and even the X. One of Tesla’s main successes is its basic exterior design, which is among the better in the industry.



While I’m giving praise, I should also point out that all automakers are in agreement that Tesla has done the best job in the industry to date in terms of rapidly bringing to market new software features. We can agree or disagree how useful or positive those features are, but Tesla does iterate quicker than any other automakers, and has no inhibitions in springing them upon the customers seemingly without hesitation.



“This product will be even more profitable than the Model 3”



-- How would we know that? We don’t know what it costs to produce, or the cost of any product errors or recalls that result from releasing the car prematurely. Maybe Tesla will get lucky and avoid the biggest potholes there, but normal automakers know the consequences of taking too much risk and failing. As for the cost of making it, we only have Tesla’s word, which is to say nothing.



“Chinese demand through the roof”



-- How much will sales in China increase compared to the current Model 3? Tesla sold 29,389 units of the Model 3 in China in 2019, with all the pent-up demand behind, from 3 years worth of a waiting list: http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/01/china-december-2019.html



That made the Model 3 the 8th best-selling plug-in in China in 2019, with a whopping 2% market share among EVs. Even if it had tripled, it still wouldn’t have made the #1 spot. Where could it go in 2020? I am thinking it will just about triple, to my estimate of 90,000 units. In a flat market, that would appear to take the Model 3 to a giant 6% market share for EVs in China.



“Of course saying profits and Tesla in the same sentence will bring on a lot of laughs, but I am quite certain that they are on the cusp of breaking through a fixed cost ceiling”



-- In the short run, almost any bottom-line scenario is possible, given the flexibility in GAAP accounting. I think a Q4 profit is entirely possible, although not a given. I think the broader perspective is this: Tesla reported a 8% revenue decline in Q3, and I don’t think Q4 will be too far from showing flat revenue over last year’s $7.2 billion. Yes, Tesla might be able to eke out a very tiny profit for another quarter or two, but nothing “structural” or “sustainable” -- and it won’t look great in the context of a flat year-over-year revenue trajectory.

  

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+7% ohne News. Riecht schon einigermaßen nach Short Squeeze...

Teslas Börsenwert übersteigt erstmals 100 Mrd. Dollar

Der US-Elektroautobauer Tesla hat erstmals in seiner Geschichte einen Börsenwert von 100 Mrd. Dollar überschritten. Der Wert der Tesla-Aktie legte heute an der New Yorker Börse nach Handelsbeginn um knapp 4,8 Prozent zu und erreichte einen Wert von rund 570 Dollar. Damit wurde der von Elon Musk gegründete Konzern mit 102,7 Mrd. Dollar (92,4 Mrd. Euro) bewertet.

Aussicht auf Geldsegen für Musk
Für den Konzernchef ist das auch persönlich eine höchst erfreuliche Nachricht: Seine Bezahlung in Form von Aktien ist an Teslas Börsenwert gekoppelt – und Geld gibt es erst ab einem Börsenwert von 100 Mrd. Dollar.

Musk bekommt laut einer 2018 geschlossenen Vereinbarung in einem ersten Schritt Aktien im Wert von 346 Mio. Dollar, wenn Teslas Börsenwert mehr als sechs Monate lang über 100 Mrd. Dollar liegt. Das Aktienpaket wächst bei Erreichung weiterer Zielmarken weiter an und könnte bei einem Tesla-Börsenwert von 650 Mrd. Dollar einen Wert von 50 Mrd. Dollar haben

https://orf.at/stories/3151901/

  

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US 2019 market share: Tesla lost market share to Cadillac, Lincoln, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Audi and Jaguar Land Rover

Summary
Based on the broadly-accepted Insideevs estimates for Tesla’s U.S. unit sales, it grew 0.3% in 2019, to 192,250 units from 191,687 in 2018.

Several other luxury/premium car brands grew faster in the U.S. in 2019, including BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lincoln and Cadillac.

They all grew faster than Tesla both as measured in absolute units and as measured as a percentage.

In other words, even before we adjust for average selling prices - let alone profitability - Tesla lost market share to these competitors in the U.S. market in 2019.

Tesla has grown fast at various points in the past, and it may do so again in 2020 - but in 2019 it grew only 0.3% in the U.S. and lost ground to most major competitors.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4318065-tesla-lost-u-s-market-share-to-cadillac-and-linc oln-in-2019

  

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Tesla 4Q earnings top expectations, sees 500K+ deliveries in 2020

Tesla’s (TSLA) stock surged more than 6% in late trading after the company posted fourth-quarter results that handily topped consensus expectations, which came in the wake of a faster-than-expected launch of local production in China and record deliveries at the end of last year.

Here are the main metrics from the Tesla’s fourth-quarter 2019 report, compared to consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg:

Revenue: $7.38 billion vs. $7.06 billion expected

Adjusted earnings per share: $2.14 vs. $1.74 expected

Tesla guided toward an increase in deliveries for the current year. The car-maker said it expects vehicle deliveries should “comfortable exceed 500,000 units” in 2020, after having handed over about 367,500 units in 2019

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-4q-2019-earnings-results-163001490.html

  

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Unfassbar, dass das Übertreffen der Prognosen nachbörslich zu einem weiteren Kurssprung führt. Das negative Gesamtjahr, quasi stagnierender Umsatz und ein auf die Prognosen für 2020 bezogenes KGV von um die 100 würden bei jeder anderen Aktie die meisten Anleger vertreiben.

  

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>Unfassbar, dass das Übertreffen der Prognosen nachbörslich zu
>einem weiteren Kurssprung führt. Das negative Gesamtjahr,
>quasi stagnierender Umsatz und ein auf die Prognosen für 2020
>bezogenes KGV von um die 100 würden bei jeder anderen Aktie
>die meisten Anleger vertreiben.


Valuations don't matter for a story Stock...

  

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My latest thoughts on Tesla

As many of my fellow short sellers have learned the hard way, it's dangerous (and costly) to stand in front of a freight train – and I'm not just talking about Tesla's stock. The company genuinely has a lot of things going for it...

Everyone I know who owns a Tesla loves it with a burning passion, which creates incredible word-of-mouth – meaning the company doesn't have to spend a dime on advertising (think of that when you're watching all of those expensive ads by Tesla's competitors during the Super Bowl on Sunday). Two of my friends at Stansberry Research's headquarters purchased Teslas in the past year, and they can't stop talking about them and taking their friends for test drives. The value of having an army of evangelists like this is enormous...

In addition, Tesla has a huge lead – in consumer mind share, unit sales, and technology (software, charging infrastructure, and so forth) – in a new industry: electric vehicles (EVs). And this industry is likely in the early stages of an S-curve adoption. EVs are vastly superior to gas-powered cars in almost every way – acceleration and handling, environmental impact, maintenance and repairs (their drivetrains have only 20 moving parts versus more than 2,000 in a typical car), etc. – so I expect that EVs will account for more than half of auto sales in the developed world by the end of this decade.

Lastly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has somewhat reined in his nonstop lying and pathological narcissism, and the company is now executing much better. As I anticipated in October, the Model Y production ramp is now underway and ahead of schedule, and the Shanghai Gigafactory is starting production only 10 months after breaking ground. This is a remarkable achievement (though Tesla investors may someday regret giving the Chinese the opportunity to steal every last bit of the company's intellectual property – not that I think this long-term issue will dampen their current excitement).

Whitney Tilson

  

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At this point, you may be thinking, "Wow, Whitney, those are some good arguments. Why aren't you telling everyone to buy the stock?"

Let me count the reasons...

As a starting point, here's a list from a report that BofA Securities issued yesterday:

10 key reasons to remain cautious on TSLA stock

Volume growth is real, but governed by capacity expansion and capital commitment
EV addressable market is not unlimited, and likely smaller than appreciated for now
Growth is also constrained by product portfolio expansion/refresh or lack thereof
Capital intensity of growth indicates TSLA is far from a FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) company/stock
Cost of capital is negligible for now and a major, but possibly temporary, advantage
Profitability and cash flow are not good or consistent, and are major risks
TSLA is still not clearly self-funding and raising capital after a decade in existence
Credit investors are skeptical, but with equity cushion, have joined the bandwagon
Creative accounting and presentation helps on a transitory basis
Momentum helps for now, but rotation to Value could be painful
Here are my thoughts as well:

A) While Tesla has an "early mover" advantage, other automakers aren't standing still. Collectively, they're investing tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars into EVs and are scheduled to roll out more than 200 models over the next three years... and many of these look amazing.

Will any be a so-called "Tesla killer"? It's hard to know, but it's far from clear that Tesla will be the long-term winner. Remember Iomega, Gateway Computer, Netscape, Palm, Friendster, MySpace, Nokia, and Research in Motion? Investors tend to get excited about emerging, disruptive companies... but fail to remember the carcasses along the way.

And even if Tesla maintains a leading market share among EVs, it may never make much of a profit – certainly not one that can support its current high valuation. Most EV buyers to date have been environmentally conscious, high-income early adopters who are less price sensitive. But as EVs go mainstream, price will matter much more – and Tesla will be competing against giant automakers that have economies of scale, and the willingness and ability to sell EVs at or even below cost thanks to profitable gas-car businesses.

Additionally, government subsidies have played and will continue to play a critical role in the adoption of EVs – and here, Tesla will likely be at a disadvantage in many countries. For example, the federal tax credit for Tesla buyers in the U.S., by far the company's largest market, has been falling over time... and on January 1, it dropped from $1,875 to zero. Meanwhile, buyers of competitors' models still get the full $7,500 credit – a huge difference.

Whitney Tilson

  

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B) Tesla investors are losing their minds over two profitable quarters in the second half of 2019, but as Anton Wahlman points out in Seeking Alpha, the company's financials actually declined year over year: In The Second Half of 2019, Tesla's Revenue Fell 3%, and Earnings Fell 45%. Excerpt:

Tesla (TSLA) is trading up in early pre-conference call reaction to the preliminary Q4 2019 financial results press release. As I suspected, we continue to live in a fact-free environment, where up is down, and down is up.

For the actual facts as to where Tesla's numbers have been going during the second half of 2019, compared to the prior year (second half of 2018), you have come to the right place. Comparing the second half of 2019 over the second half of 2018 is important for two reasons:

The Model 3 deliveries to Europe and Asia started taking place in the first half of 2019, so the second half of 2019 is the first multi-quarter period in which we had a complete set of data from not only the U.S., but also globally.
We all know that a single quarter can have an anomaly. Two quarters smooth the picture, although in the case of the second half of 2019 there were no such material differences between the two quarters. They were more similar than not. In that sense, the similarity only confirms the overall revenue and net income trends, which should bring comfort to both the bulls and bears in their analysis.
In addition to what Wahlman highlights, in Tesla's fourth quarter, Model S and X deliveries plummeted by 29%, U.S. sales dropped, and the average selling price of the Model 3 declined by roughly $10,000.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4319976-in-second-half-of-2019-teslas-revenue-fell-3-and -earnings-fell-45

  

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Von einem HF Shortie, ich habe es nicht überprüft:

As for the nonsensical earnings conference call, this quote from Musk about when so-called “Autopilot” will be “feature complete” may have been the highlight:
“feature complete just means like it has some chance of going from your home to work let's say with no interventions. So, that's -- it doesn’t mean the features are working well, but it means it has above zero chance. So I think that's looking like maybe it's going to be a couple of months from now.”

  

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Tesla Surges Past $700 on Panasonic Profit, Bullish Price Target

Tesla Inc.’s shares rallied for a fifth day Monday, adding more than $100 per share, as a torrent of good news further boosted investor sentiment.

The stock rose as much as 21% to $786.14, its highest price ever, and the stock’s best intraday gain since May 2013.

Earlier today, Panasonic Corp., which makes batteries for Tesla at its jointly operated battery plant in Nevada, said the business turned profitable in the quarter ended Dec. 31. The rapid increase in Tesla’s output helped push that business into the black, Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda told reporters in Tokyo on Monday, declining to give specific figures.

Another boost came from Argus analyst Bill Selesky, who raised his price target on Tesla to a Street-high of $808 from $556

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-surges-past-700-panasonic-155416632.html

  

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Faszinierend. Mittlerweile erinnert mich die Tesla-Aktie an Volkswagen rund um die Übernahme durch Porsche.

Ich bin schon gespannt, wie Einhorn das alles seinen Investoren erklären wird. Weil jetzt geht diese bisher stur verteidigte Fehlinvestition wirklich an die Substanz.

  

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>Ich bin schon gespannt, wie Einhorn das alles seinen
>Investoren erklären wird. Weil jetzt geht diese bisher stur
>verteidigte Fehlinvestition wirklich an die Substanz.


Irgendwo habe ich in einem Nebensatz gelesen er hätte von Short der Aktie auf Long Puts umgestellt. Damage Control.

  

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>>Ich bin schon gespannt, wie Einhorn das alles seinen
>>Investoren erklären wird. Weil jetzt geht diese bisher
>stur
>>verteidigte Fehlinvestition wirklich an die Substanz.
>
>
>Irgendwo habe ich in einem Nebensatz gelesen er hätte von
>Short der Aktie auf Long Puts umgestellt. Damage Control.


Und ich vermute es wird in der Art sein wie ich es schon von einigen Shorts gelesen habe. In 99 von 100 Fällen funktioniert ein Short der diese Charakteristika zeigt(z.B. schlechte Bilanz, kapitalintensiv, kreative Buchhaltung, Management-Turnover, etc.,.. ) Es sei daher kein Fehler gewesen.

  

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>
>>>Ich bin schon gespannt, wie Einhorn das alles seinen
>>>Investoren erklären wird. Weil jetzt geht diese
>bisher
>>stur
>>>verteidigte Fehlinvestition wirklich an die Substanz.
>>
>>
>>Irgendwo habe ich in einem Nebensatz gelesen er hätte von
>>Short der Aktie auf Long Puts umgestellt. Damage Control.
>
>
>Und ich vermute es wird in der Art sein wie ich es schon von
>einigen Shorts gelesen habe. In 99 von 100 Fällen funktioniert
>ein Short der diese Charakteristika zeigt(z.B. schlechte
>Bilanz, kapitalintensiv, kreative Buchhaltung,
>Management-Turnover, etc.,.. ) Es sei daher kein Fehler
>gewesen.
>

Ugh, wieder dick im Plus diesen Morgen. I'm dying too und jetzt muss ich wohl zu diesen Kursen zurückkaufen. Doppelt bitter. Hätt ich doch auf die Experten hier gehört

  

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>A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tesla Bonds


Anleihen shorten wär halt schon fein, begrenzte Downside, große Upside. Genau andersrum beim Shorten von Aktien. Aber halt nur für Profis möglich.

  

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>>A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tesla
>Bonds
>
>
>Anleihen shorten wär halt schon fein, begrenzte Downside,
>große Upside. Genau andersrum beim Shorten von Aktien. Aber
>halt nur für Profis möglich.
>

Selbiges hab ich auch gedacht, schlauer Typ.

  

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>>>A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting
>Tesla
>>Bonds
>>
>>
>>Anleihen shorten wär halt schon fein, begrenzte Downside,
>>große Upside. Genau andersrum beim Shorten von Aktien.
>Aber
>>halt nur für Profis möglich.
>>
>
>Selbiges hab ich auch gedacht, schlauer Typ.


Und tendenziell billiger als der Time decay wenn man Puts kauft.

  

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>>A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting Tesla
>Bonds
>
>
>Anleihen shorten wär halt schon fein, begrenzte Downside,
>große Upside. Genau andersrum beim Shorten von Aktien. Aber
>halt nur für Profis möglich.

Anleihen zu shorten ist eine feine Sache. In Europa ist es regulatorisch sogar einfacher als Aktien zu shorten.

Bei (europäischen) Aktien gibt es einen Riesenskandal, wenn man über Nacht naked short ist. Bei Anleihen ist das für zwei oder drei Tage in Ordnung. Dann muß man die Position allerdings "drehen", was längerfristig sehr teuer kommt. Oder man findet eine Leihe.

  

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>>>A Hedge Fund With 29% Return Record Is Shorting
>Tesla
>>Bonds
>>
>>
>>Anleihen shorten wär halt schon fein, begrenzte Downside,
>>große Upside. Genau andersrum beim Shorten von Aktien.
>Aber
>>halt nur für Profis möglich.
>
>Anleihen zu shorten ist eine feine Sache. In Europa ist es
>regulatorisch sogar einfacher als Aktien zu shorten.
>
>Bei (europäischen) Aktien gibt es einen Riesenskandal, wenn
>man über Nacht naked short ist. Bei Anleihen ist das für zwei
>oder drei Tage in Ordnung. Dann muß man die Position
>allerdings "drehen", was längerfristig sehr teuer kommt. Oder
>man findet eine Leihe.


Gibts einen Retail-Broker der das anbietet? Interactive Brokers vielleicht?

  

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>Gibts einen Retail-Broker der das anbietet? Interactive Brokers vielleicht?

Ich habe das bei ViTrade betrieben:

https://www.vitrade.de/short-selling/

Anleihen waren eigentlich immer Grün, amerikanische Aktien auch.

Europäische Aktien immer orange oder rot.

  

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>>Ugh, wieder dick im Plus diesen Morgen.
>
>
>Vorbörslich 870. Wohl Squeeze, weil weitere News sehe ich
>keine.

Ein Squeeze ist es schon seit 350. Ich denke es haben sich ein paar Fonds abgesprochen mit dem Vorsatz:"Den 30% short zeigen wir's mal richtig". Wenn man die 30Mio shares von Musk rausnimmt ist der float ziemlich klein.

  

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>>>Ugh, wieder dick im Plus diesen Morgen.
>>
>>Vorbörslich 870. Wohl Squeeze, weil weitere News sehe ich keine.
>
>Ein Squeeze ist es schon seit 350. Ich denke es haben sich ein
>paar Fonds abgesprochen mit dem Vorsatz:"Den 30% short zeigen
>wir's mal richtig". Wenn man die 30Mio shares von Musk
>rausnimmt ist der float ziemlich klein.

Ist das neu gewonnene Überlegung, oder hattest Du das schon bei Positionseröffnung am Radar?

Das sind hier tatsächlich Moves wie zu VW-Porsche-Seiten bzw NM-Zeiten davor (Tesla / EM.TV). Es gibt so viele vernünftige (Gegen)Argumente, und den Markt interessierts Null - eindeutige Sideline-Situation, weil brauchbare Meinungsbildung unmöglich (wo soll ich Entry oder Exit setzen bei so nem Szenario?)

  

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>>>>Ugh, wieder dick im Plus diesen Morgen.
>>>
>>>Vorbörslich 870. Wohl Squeeze, weil weitere News sehe
>ich keine.
>>
>>Ein Squeeze ist es schon seit 350. Ich denke es haben sich
>ein
>>paar Fonds abgesprochen mit dem Vorsatz:"Den 30% short
>zeigen
>>wir's mal richtig". Wenn man die 30Mio shares von Musk
>>rausnimmt ist der float ziemlich klein.
>
>Ist das neu gewonnene Überlegung, oder hattest Du das schon
>bei Positionseröffnung am Radar?
>
>Das sind hier tatsächlich Moves wie zu VW-Porsche-Seiten bzw
>NM-Zeiten davor (Tesla / EM.TV). Es gibt so viele vernünftige
>(Gegen)Argumente, und den Markt interessierts Null -
>eindeutige Sideline-Situation, weil brauchbare Meinungsbildung
>unmöglich (wo soll ich Entry oder Exit setzen bei so nem
>Szenario?)

mit was kann man den jetzt am besten short gehen? Habts einen Tipp?
Der Kurs ist völlig absurd ich trau mich drauf wetten, dass es bald ordentlich nach Süden geht.

mMn ist ein Tesla ein 2.6 Tonnen Häusl mit Mittelklasse Verarbeitung, schlechtem Fahrwerk, das auf der Autobahn 120 fährt, zu überteuerten Preisen. Tesla lebt nur weil sie momentan E-Autos steuerlich fördern und es halt sonst nix gibt. Aber das kann sich ganz schnell ändern.

  

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>mit was kann man den jetzt am besten short gehen?

Mit ganz kleiner Size und viel Liquidität. Weil wenn es heute ohne Anlaß auf 870 steigt, kann es nächste Woche genausogut auf 1200 steigen.

  

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Tesla Gross Margin

> This is about classifying what should be part of cost of goods sold, to overhead expense (marketing, etc.). It does not change today's reported net income -- it all cancels out to the bottom line -- but it does change the one thing Tesla needs more than anything: Hope among financial analysts and investors that it can generate higher net income in the future.
>
> Why is this? If certain expenses are considered "fixed" -- or at least not growing anywhere near the rate of revenue, perhaps only by 5% or whatever, per year -- and the company can show a positive gross margin percentage, then investors can say "If unit sales eventually becomes large enough, this company can not only make money at all, but also serious money."
>
> In other words, leverage.
>
> It is of course the lesson learned from companies such as Facebook and Alphabet, where the expenses are relatively "fixed" -- emphasis on relatively -- but where variable revenue has high gross margin. As those companies grow into profitability, the leverage from there is huge -- profits grow much faster than revenue, at that point.
>
> The biggest trick Tesla has used in this regard, which makes for an unfair comparison with other automakers, is the sales/distribution situation. Unlike other automakers, Tesla owns its own "dealerships."
>
> In accounting for those vertically integrated stores, Tesla makes it a "fixed" expense. In other words, the cost of the stores aren't added to cost of goods sold -- thereby reducing gross margin -- but rather added to overhead expense ("sales and marketing") instead.
>
> Considering that other automakers allocate 10% of revenue to its independent dealership expense, and this comes straight out of the COGS line, that means that in a comparison with other automakers, Tesla's gross margin is 10% overstated automatically, right there. When Tesla says its gross margin is 20%, based on its vertically integrated stores, that line item alone makes it equivalent to a 10% gross margin number posted by every other automaker.
>
> A similar thing goes on with R&D. Tesla allocates 100% of its R&D cost into... the R&D line, which is overhead expense. Most other automakers don't do that. For example, at least until very recently, Porsche allocated 50% of its R&D into COGS and the other 50% into overhead. That has a huge impact on the gross margin line, compared to Tesla.

> And if I recall correctly, General Motors allocates a whopping 100% of its R&D into COGS. That's why GM's almost laughable gross margin percentage still results in very solid profitability (adjusted for any special items, of course) almost every single quarter for the last decade. The difference between GM's gross margin percentage, and its net margin percentage, is tiny. In Tesla's case, that difference between gross margin and net margin is huge!

Whitney Tilson

  

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Tesla isn’t in the S&P 500 but a quick look at the index would mean it would be around the 50th largest and would have added roughly 13pts to the index this year. Incidentally, the electric car maker may soon be eligible to join the index now that it is close to posting four straight quarters of profits – the only requirement the company was short.

  

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Tesla ruft 15.000 Fahrzeuge zurück

Der E-Auto-Hersteller Tesla ruft 15.000 Wagen des Typs Model X wegen möglicher Probleme mit der Servorlenkung in den USA und Kanada zurück. Damit verbunden ist die Gefahr möglicher Unfälle.

Nach Angaben der kanadischen Aufsichtsbehörde NHTSA sind Modelle aus dem Jahr 2016 betroffen.

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/tesla-ruft-15000-fahrzeuge-zurueck/400752996

  

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Tesla to Price Secondary Share Offering at $767: Report


Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. plans to price its secondary stock offering at $767 a share, according to a published report late Thursday. The company said earlier Thursday that it will raise $2 billion by issuing new common stock, less than two weeks after Musk, its founder and CEO , said it "didn't make sense" to raise money. Tesla said it will use the cash to shore up its balance sheet, as well as for "general corporate purposes." Tesla said Musk will take up around $10 million worth of stock from the sale, while board member Larry Ellison will purchase $1 million.

  

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>Da zeigt sich wieder Teslas größter Wettbewerbsvorteil: Costa
>of Capital gibt es für sie nicht.


Und sie übertreiben es nie. Sie nehmen 2 Milliarden, nicht 20.

  

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>>Da zeigt sich wieder Teslas größter Wettbewerbsvorteil:
>Costa
>>of Capital gibt es für sie nicht.
>
>
>Und sie übertreiben es nie. Sie nehmen 2 Milliarden, nicht
>20.


Was bei dieser Bewertung mE ein Fehler ist.

  

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>>>Da zeigt sich wieder Teslas größter
>Wettbewerbsvorteil:
>>Costa
>>>of Capital gibt es für sie nicht.
>>
>>
>>Und sie übertreiben es nie. Sie nehmen 2 Milliarden,
>nicht
>>20.
>
>
>Was bei dieser Bewertung mE ein Fehler ist.

Vor zwei Wochen meinte Musk noch, dass sei überflüssig weil TSLA ja jetzt so viel Cash generiert.

Zu CoC ich weiß nicht, ob das ironisch gemeint war. Kapitalerhöhungen sind immer Kapitalkosten. Betriebswirte werden das jetzt verneinen. Doch ich kann mir Kapital nicht aus dem Hut ziehen. Die Verwässerung schlägt sich sofort auf das Eigenkapital.

  

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>>>>Da zeigt sich wieder Teslas größter
>>Wettbewerbsvorteil:
>>>Costa
>>>>of Capital gibt es für sie nicht.
>>>
>>>
>>>Und sie übertreiben es nie. Sie nehmen 2 Milliarden,
>>nicht
>>>20.
>>
>>
>>Was bei dieser Bewertung mE ein Fehler ist.
>
>Vor zwei Wochen meinte Musk noch, dass sei überflüssig weil
>TSLA ja jetzt so viel Cash generiert.
>
>Zu CoC ich weiß nicht, ob das ironisch gemeint war.
>Kapitalerhöhungen sind immer Kapitalkosten. Betriebswirte
>werden das jetzt verneinen. Doch ich kann mir Kapital nicht
>aus dem Hut ziehen. Die Verwässerung schlägt sich sofort auf
>das Eigenkapital.


Gibt es für sie nicht war übertrieben, aber sie können sich 2 Mrd. mit viel geringerer Verwässerung als andere besorgen..

  

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>>>>>Da zeigt sich wieder Teslas größter
>>>Wettbewerbsvorteil:
>>>>Costa
>>>>>of Capital gibt es für sie nicht.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Und sie übertreiben es nie. Sie nehmen 2
>Milliarden,
>>>nicht
>>>>20.
>>>
>>>
>>>Was bei dieser Bewertung mE ein Fehler ist.
>>
>>Vor zwei Wochen meinte Musk noch, dass sei überflüssig
>weil
>>TSLA ja jetzt so viel Cash generiert.
>>
>>Zu CoC ich weiß nicht, ob das ironisch gemeint war.
>>Kapitalerhöhungen sind immer Kapitalkosten. Betriebswirte
>>werden das jetzt verneinen. Doch ich kann mir Kapital
>nicht
>>aus dem Hut ziehen. Die Verwässerung schlägt sich sofort
>auf
>>das Eigenkapital.
>
>
>Gibt es für sie nicht war übertrieben, aber sie können sich 2
>Mrd. mit viel geringerer Verwässerung als andere besorgen..
>
>

Das stimmt und es gibt Musk wieder genug Zeit, um die Dose, in den nächsten Quartalen, der Straße entlang zukicken.

  

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Das Problem dabei ist, dass es mit den Barmittelzuflüssen in diesem Jahr bisher alles andere als rosig aussieht. In China wütet das Coronavirus und legt die neue Fabrik lahm und in Europa sind einige Kaufanreize ausgelaufen. In der ersten Hälfte des laufenden Quartals konnte Tesla fast keine Autos mehr absetzen, wie den verfügbaren Statistiken zu entnehmen ist. In Spanien, Holland und Norwegen waren es bis zum 12. Februar nur etwa 330 Stück.

Zum Vergleich: Die Marken der Volkswagen-Gruppe haben in den drei Ländern im gleichen Zeitraum fast zehnmal so viele reine Elektroautos unter die Leute gebracht. In der datengetriebenen Tesla-Organisation weiß man natürlich genau, was los ist. Es liegt nahe, dass die Kehrtwende damit zusammenhängt. Etwa zwei Wochen nach dem Dementi wurde jetzt also doch die Ausgabe neuer Aktien angekündigt, und zwar 3,05 Mio. Stück zum Preis von bis zu 767 US-Dollar, womit bis zu 2,3 Mrd. US-Dollar in die Kassen von Tesla und seinen Finanzdienstleistern fließen.

https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/teslas-elon-musk-was-interessiert-mich-mein-gesc hwaetz-von-gestern-alles-wichtige-zur-kapitalerhoehung-184541

  

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>Das Problem dabei ist, dass es mit den Barmittelzuflüssen in
>diesem Jahr bisher alles andere als rosig aussieht. In China
>wütet das Coronavirus und legt die neue Fabrik lahm und in
>Europa sind einige Kaufanreize ausgelaufen. In der ersten
>Hälfte des laufenden Quartals konnte Tesla fast keine Autos
>mehr absetzen, wie den verfügbaren Statistiken zu entnehmen
>ist. In Spanien, Holland und Norwegen waren es bis zum 12.
>Februar nur etwa 330 Stück.


Vergleiche https://teslastats.no/

  

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Tesla Bear Morgan Stanley Raises Its Bull Case to $1,200 a Share

Tesla Inc.’s potential to become a key battery supplier for electric vehicles has prompted a bearish analyst on the carmaker to nearly double his bull case for the shares.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas increased his most optimistic projection for Tesla to $1,200 a share from $650. That’s about 50% above the U.S. company’s $800.03 closing price Friday and would give Tesla a market capitalization of $220 billion. Jonas raised his base case target to $500 a share from $360 but reiterated his underweight recommendation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-18/tesla-bear-morgan-stanley-raises-its-b ull-case-to-1-200-a-share

  

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>Tesla Bear Morgan Stanley Raises Its Bull Case to $1,200 a
>Share
>
>Tesla Inc.’s potential to become a key battery supplier for
>electric vehicles has prompted a bearish analyst on the
>carmaker to nearly double his bull case for the shares.
>
>Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas increased his most optimistic
>projection for Tesla to $1,200 a share from $650. That’s about
>50% above the U.S. company’s $800.03 closing price Friday and
>would give Tesla a market capitalization of $220 billion.
>Jonas raised his base case target to $500 a share from $360
>but reiterated his underweight recommendation.
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-18/tesla-bear-morgan-stanley-raises-its-b ull-case-to-1-200-a-share

😂

  

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Shares of Tesla Inc. shot back above $850 Tuesday before paring gains, after Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi nearly doubled his price target, saying he didn’t see any negative catalysts on the horizon for a stock that wasn’t especially expensive.

Sacconaghi raised his stock price target to $730, which is still 14% below current levels, from $325. He reiterated the market perform rating that he’s had on Tesla for at least the past three years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/42ce5fab-1da6-344c-ad8a-8a576b9f8b2a/tesla%E2%80%99s-stock-sp ikes-above.html

  

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Tesla verhandelt offenbar über kobaltfreie Akkus für E-Autos

Kobalt abzubauen ist energieaufwendig und teuer. Überdies passiert es überwiegend im Kongo unter fragwürdigen Bedingungen wie Kinderarbeit

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000114714814/tesla-verhandelt-offenbar-ueberkobaltfreie -akkus-fuer-e-autos

  

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Zerlegtes Tesla Model 3 schockt VW und Toyota

Die japanische Wirtschaftszeitung Nikkei hat ein  Model 3  zerlegt, und kam dabei zu dem Schluss, dass Tesla gegenüber den Branchengrößen mindestens sechs Jahre Vorsprung habe. Dabei steche vor allem die zentrale Recheneinheit namens „Full Self-Driving Computer 3“ (FSD 3) hervor. Diese wird seit Frühjahr 2019 neben dem Model 3 auch im  Model S und Model X  verbaut. FSD 3 ist für das  teilautomatisierte Fahren (aktuell Level 2,5) und die gesamte Steuerung des vollvernetzten Infotainments zuständig. Die großen Hersteller statten ihre Autos zwar ebenfalls bereits mit teilautonomen Fahrfunktionen und vernetzten Multimediasystemen aus, sie brauchen dafür aber mehrere Steuergeräte und Recheneinheiten.

https://m.auto.oe24.at/thema/Zerlegtes-Tesla-Model-3-schockt-VW-und-Toyota-6-Jahre-Vorspr ung/418053821

  

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Tesla’s Q1 sales numbers in Europe may provide a clue. Three countries in Europe constituted 17% of Tesla’s overall global sales in Q4 2019.

As it happens, we obtain daily sales data from those countries: Spain, Norway and The Netherlands - and thus far in the quarter, the numbers are horrible.

Through Feb. 12, Tesla has sold a whopping 336 cars this quarter in those three countries. That’s only 1.7% of the 19,330 units it sold there in Q4.

We all know Tesla’s quarters are back-end loaded, but this seems like the most extreme case of back-end loaded quarter I have ever seen. Likely shortfall ahead.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323848-tesla-raises-money-investors-see-bad-european-sa les-numbers

  

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Tesla und Panasonic: Szenen einer kriselnden Partnerschaft

Panasonic steigt aus US-Solarzellenproduktion aus, da Tesla zu wenig Volumen abnimmt. Schon zuvor suchte der Autobauer zusätzliche Batterielieferanten

Die Kooperation der beiden Konzerne in der Gigafactory im US-Bundesstaat Nevada, wo Tesla Elektroautos und Panasonic die Akkus dafür erzeugt, soll zwar weiterlaufen. Allerdings zeigen sich auch im Batteriengeschäft Risse in der Partnerschaft. Anders als ursprünglich geplant soll die gemeinsame Fabrik in Nevada doch nicht ausgebaut werden, zudem beteiligte sich Panasonic sich nicht an Teslas Fabrik in Schanghai. Um nicht bei Batterien allein von Panasonic abhängig zu sein, hat Tesla seine Lieferantenkette in diesem Bereich um LG Chem aus Südkorea und Contemporary Amperex Technology aus China erweitert.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000115051505/tesla-und-panasonic-szenen-einer-kriselnde n-partnerschaft

  

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Jetzt wo der Absatzmarkt in China stillsteht wird man sehen mit welcher Rakete sich Musk aus der Misere herausschiesst...

  

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Tesla scouting central U.S. for new factory, Musk says

"Scouting locations for Cybertruck Gigafactory. (It) Will be central USA," Musk tweeted.

  

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>
>Elon Musk tells SpaceX workers: 'Driving is deadlier than
>coronavirus'
>
>Die Dummheit dieses Menschen ist grenzenlos.


Für das individuelle Risiko mag es stimmen, trotzdem dämlich.

  

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Bis Ende Februar hat Tesla in Deutschland nur erbärmliche 1.052 Fahrzeuge absetzen können. Die Marke VW hat mehr als ein Dutzend Modelle, die häufiger verkauft wurden, und schon allein der E-Golf fand 2.595 Abnehmer. In Holland, Spanien und Norwegen waren es bei Tesla bis zum 28. März zusammen enttäuschende 3.252 Stück. Audi und Volkswagen haben dort 7.389 reine Elektroautos verkauft. Weitere etwa 2.000 steuern die restlichen Konzernmarken bei, mit steigendem Trend.

https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/tesla-wird-nach-dieser-krise-nicht-mehr-dasselbe -unternehmen-sein-199246

  

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>Bis Ende Februar hat Tesla in Deutschland nur erbärmliche
>1.052 Fahrzeuge absetzen können. Die Marke VW hat mehr als ein
>Dutzend Modelle, die häufiger verkauft wurden, und schon
>allein der E-Golf fand 2.595 Abnehmer. In Holland, Spanien und
>Norwegen waren es bei Tesla bis zum 28. März zusammen

Falls März 20 hier schon aktuell ist ist der yoy- Vergleich ein Desaster:

https://teslastats.no/

  

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Tesla Is Nearing Debut of Longer Range China-Made Model 3


(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. plans to expand its lineup in China by offering a locally built Model 3 sedan with a longer driving range from as early as this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

The vehicle would have a range of more than 650 kilometers (404 miles) on one charge, compared with about 450 kilometers for the current most basic version that starts at 323,800 yuan ($45,800), the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The variant would start at about 350,000 yuan before rebates, though exact pricing has yet to be decided, they said.

The longer-range Model 3, like the existing cheaper version, would qualify for electric-vehicle subsidies and is exempt from China’s car purchase tax.

  

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Tesla kündigt Zwangsurlaub und Lohnkürzungen an

Der US-amerikanische Elektroautohersteller Tesla will alle Arbeiterinnen und Arbeiter, die nicht unbedingt benötigt werden, auf Zwangsurlaub zu schicken.

Außerdem sollen Löhne von 13. April bis zum Ende des zweiten Quartals gekürzt werden, hieß es in einer an die Belegschaft in den USA verschickten E-Mail, die Reuters einsehen konnte. Grund sei die Schließung der Produktionsstätten in den USA wegen der Coronavirus-Pandemie.

Der normale Betrieb soll nach Angaben des Konzerns am 4. Mai wieder aufgenommen werden, sofern sich keine erheblichen Änderungen ergäben. Die Löhne der Arbeiter würden um zehn Prozent, die von Führungskräften um 20 bis 30 Prozent reduziert, heißt es in der E-Mail. Außerhalb der USA solle es ähnliche Kürzungen geben. Tesla war nicht für eine Stellungnahme zu erreichen.

https://orf.at/stories/3161086/

  

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>Tesla kündigt Zwangsurlaub und Lohnkürzungen an
>
>Der US-amerikanische Elektroautohersteller Tesla will alle
>Arbeiterinnen und Arbeiter, die nicht unbedingt benötigt
>werden, auf Zwangsurlaub zu schicken.

Ich fahre recht häufig beim Tesla in 1230 vorbei. Was dort und auf umliegenden Autoplätzen so an Tesla scheinbar auf Halde stehenden Teslas herumsteht ist überraschend.

  

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Credit Suisse hebt Tesla auf 'Neutral' und Ziel auf 580 Dollar

Die Schweizer Bank Credit Suisse hat Tesla von "Underperform" auf "Neutral" hochgestuft und das Kursziel von 415 auf 580 US-Dollar angehoben. In Zeiten des Coronavirus sei der Elektroautobauer besser positioniert, schrieb Analyst Dan Levy in einer am Dienstag vorliegenden Studie. Die Viruskrise erhöhe den Wettbewerbsvorteil beim Übergang zu Elektroantrieben, der für andere Autohersteller nun noch schwerer zu stemmen sei.

  

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Tesla an Börse wertvoller als BMW, Daimler und VW zusammen

Mit einem kräftigen Kursplus der Tesla -Aktien von mehr als neun Prozent hat der Hersteller von Elektrofahrzeugen am Montag beim Börsenwert die deutschen Hersteller BMW , Volkswagen und Daimler zusammen genommen hinter sich gelassen. Beobachtern zufolge profitiert der Tesla-Kurs von einer Meldung der Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg, der zufolge der Hersteller von Elektrofahrzeugen erste Schritte für eine Wiederaufnahme der Produktion in Kalifornien erwägt.

  

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Elon Musk guards Tesla board from legal fees after insurers shun risk


Elon Musk tapped more of his shares in Tesla Inc. last year to unlock some of his wealth and also entered into an unusual arrangement to provide liability coverage for fellow members of the electric-car maker’s board.

Musk increased the share of his Tesla holding that he’s pledged as collateral for personal loans to 54% at the end of 2019, the company disclosed in a regulatory filing Tuesday. That compares with 40% at the end of 2018, when the carmaker last shared the size of Musk’s pledging.

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2020/04/28/elon-musk-guards-tesla-board-l egal-fees-insurers-shun-risk/111633990/

  

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Tesla überrascht mit weiterem Quartalsgewinn

Trotz Coronakrise und Werkschließungen hat Tesla mehr Autos verkauft als im Vorjahresquartal.

Der US-Elektroautoproduzent Tesla hat das erste Quartal trotz der Coronakrise überraschend mit schwarzen Zahlen abgeschlossen. Unter dem Strich gab es einen Gewinn von 16 Millionen Dollar (14,71 Mio. Euro), wie der Konzern von Tech-Milliardär Elon Musk am Mittwoch nach US-Börsenschluss in Palo Alto mitteilte. Es ist bereits das dritte Quartal mit einem Überschuss in Folge.

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/tesla-ueberrascht-mit-weiterem-quartalsgewinn/400828082

  

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Tesla announced Q1 2020 earnings last night and, as usual, both bulls and bears saw what they wanted... After hours, the bulls were in control, as the stock rose approximately 10%.

The headline number of $16 million of net income beat estimates, which delighted bulls while bears pointed out this beat was simply a result of booking $350 million in regulatory credits and, without this one time item, the company would have missed earnings badly. In other words, nothing new in Tesla world!

Personally, I'm not impressed. The conference call was a rambling gibberish session filled with CEO Elon Musk's prognostications, similar to what we've seen in recent calls. For example, about a year ago he forecasted a million robotaxis in a year. It took one year for that target to be pushed out one year. In other words, zero timeline progress – but never a shortage of promises of a bright future. These comments were interspersed with expletive filled commentary regarding shelter in place, which Musk likened to "fascism." Is this a prelude to moving production offshore? Time will tell...

Interestingly, the company filed its 10-Q this morning, which it easily could have done before the conference call. The likely reason it didn't is the disclosures raise questions that the company preferred to avoid during the earnings call. There will be plenty to analyze, but in one of my favorite disclosures, cash balances ended the quarter at $8.1 billion. It doesn't take a math major to recognize this is entirely inconsistent with reported interest income of $10 million in the quarter. These inconsistencies continue to be glossed over by both the company and its sycophants (I mean "analysts").

I fully expect that the company filed the 10-Q as preamble to an imminent capital raise that it consistently insists isn't needed (until the moment of the announcement).

My bottom line: the company is minimally profitable despite extremely aggressive accounting. Though perceived (and priced) as a growth company, it's showing anemic growth at best, as you can see in the upper left in the chart below. The solar roof business is so small it's not worth discussing. Important employees continue to leave the company in droves (the deputy general counsel just departed – I believe that makes four in the last two years). And the market valuation of nearly $160 billion is totally disconnected from the economic reality of the business, so buyer beware!

That said, the Cult of Musk is strong, so I'd also add short seller beware!

  

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Nächste Woche wird der erste Teil seines Mega-Bonuspakets fällig wenn der Kurs hoch genug ist. Er ist wirklich irre.

Musk twitterte von "zu hohem Kurs" – Tesla-Aktie fiel um 12 Prozent
Tesla-Firmenchef Elon Musk will angeblich auf fast allen physischen Besitz verzichten

Tesla-Chef Elon Musk hat sein Unternehmen mit sonderbaren Tweets an der Börse unter Druck gebracht. Musk schrieb am Freitag, dass er den Aktienkurs des Elektroautobauers für zu hoch halte. Außerdem twitterte der Tech-Milliardär unter anderem: "Ich verkaufe fast allen physischen Besitz" und dass er kein Haus mehr besitzen werde.

Die Tesla-Aktie geriet dadurch weiter ins Minus und fiel im New Yorker Börsenhandel zeitweise um rund zwölf Prozent.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117238891/musk-twitterte-von-zu-hohem-kurs-tesla-akt ie-fiel-um

  

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Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
2 Std.
Now give people back their FREEDOM
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
2 Std.
Tesla stock price is too high imo
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
2 Std.
I am selling almost all physical possessions. Will own no house.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

  

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Tesla skimps on warranty costs to inflate its profits, critics allege

These changes in Tesla’s warranty accounting had a major impact on its reported profits. If the company had set aside the same amount per car delivered in the fourth quarter of 2019 as it did for the same period in 2018, its warranty funding would have cost an estimated $207 million, instead of the actual contribution of $151.3 million.

The implied savings of $56 million would have accounted for more than half of Tesla's $105 million in total fourth-quarter net profit.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/tesla-warranties-accounting-profits/

  

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Erster bemannter Flug zu ISS mit SpaceX

Am späten Mittwochabend soll eine SpaceX-Rakete – und damit erstmals ein privates Unternehmen – US-Astronauten zur Internationalen Raumstation (ISS) bringen. Der Start ist ein Meilenstein in der von den USA forcierten Privatisierung der Raumfahrt und – im Falle des Gelingens – ein großer Erfolg für den exzentrischen Firmengründer Elon Musk.


Für die US-Raumfahrtbehörde NASA würde ein Erfolg der Mission zugleich mehr Unabhängigkeit von russischen Sojus-Raketen bedeuten. Den Start der Falcon-9-Rakete mit einer bemannten Dragon-Kapsel will US-Präsident Donald Trump persönlich im Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral mitverfolgen. Der Start wird zudem live im Internet gestreamt.

Am Mittwoch um 16.33 Uhr Ortszeit (22.33 Uhr MESZ) sollen der 49-jährige Robert Behnken und der 53-jährige Douglas Hurley, beide US-Raumfahrtveteranen, zur ISS starten und 19 Stunden später dort andocken.

https://orf.at/stories/3167145/

  

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>>SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
>>
>>https://orf.at/stories/3167837/
>
>Respekt! Da werd sogar ich noch ein Musk Fan.


Ich wüßte jedenfalls nicht welche organisatorische/engineering-Leistung der von ihm mit SpaceX seit 2002 gleich kommt. "Unglaublich" beschreibt es nicht annähernd.

  

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>>>SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
>>>
>>>https://orf.at/stories/3167837/
>>
>>Respekt! Da werd sogar ich noch ein Musk Fan.
>
>
>Ich wüßte jedenfalls nicht welche
>organisatorische/engineering-Leistung der von ihm mit SpaceX
>seit 2002 gleich kommt. "Unglaublich" beschreibt es nicht
>annähernd.
en

Jedenfalls läßt mich dgl. optimistisch in die Zukunft blicken und ich beneide meine Kinder ob der Technik die sie erleben werden. Hab den Launch mit meinen Zwillingen (9 Jahre) verfolgt. Sie zuerst relativ unbeeindruckt: "Warum bist du so nervös"? Also schnell den Challenger Start gezeigt - das hat die Aufmerksamkeit stark erhöht.

Als der Dino durch die Kapsel schwebt die Tochter: "Papa ich will einen Parabelflug machen!" *stolz*

  

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>Jedenfalls läßt mich dgl. optimistisch in die Zukunft blicken
>und ich beneide meine Kinder ob der Technik die sie erleben
>werden. Hab den Launch mit meinen Zwillingen (9 Jahre)
>verfolgt. Sie zuerst relativ unbeeindruckt: "Warum bist du so
>nervös"? Also schnell den Challenger Start gezeigt - das hat
>die Aufmerksamkeit stark erhöht.
>
>Als der Dino durch die Kapsel schwebt die Tochter: "Papa ich
>will einen Parabelflug machen!" *stolz*

Ich hab mir auch gedacht hoffentlich geht da alles gut.(wenn die Verarbeitung so ist wie bei den Tesla Modellen...)

  

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>>>SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
>>>
>>>https://orf.at/stories/3167837/
>>
>>Respekt! Da werd sogar ich noch ein Musk Fan.
>
>
>Ich wüßte jedenfalls nicht welche
>organisatorische/engineering-Leistung der von ihm mit SpaceX
>seit 2002 gleich kommt. "Unglaublich" beschreibt es nicht
>annähernd.

Das funktioniert aber nur weil der amerikanische Staat jedes Jahr Milliarden in SpaceX pumpt um die mittlerweile 8.000 Mitarbeiter zu finanzieren...

  

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>Das funktioniert aber nur weil der amerikanische Staat jedes
>Jahr Milliarden in SpaceX pumpt um die mittlerweile 8.000
>Mitarbeiter zu finanzieren...

Gleiches bei TSLA...haha.

  

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>>>>SpaceX-Kapsel erfolgreich an ISS angedockt
>>>>
>>>>https://orf.at/stories/3167837/
>>>
>>>Respekt! Da werd sogar ich noch ein Musk Fan.
>>
>>
>>Ich wüßte jedenfalls nicht welche
>>organisatorische/engineering-Leistung der von ihm mit
>SpaceX
>>seit 2002 gleich kommt. "Unglaublich" beschreibt es nicht
>>annähernd.
>
>Das funktioniert aber nur weil der amerikanische Staat jedes
>Jahr Milliarden in SpaceX pumpt um die mittlerweile 8.000
>Mitarbeiter zu finanzieren...


Aber man muß erst mal in die Position kommen dann solche Milliarden-Entwicklungsaufträge zu bekommen. Und NASA hat mit einem Vielfachen dgl. selbst nicht zustande gebracht.

  

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>>Das funktioniert aber nur weil der amerikanische Staat
>jedes
>>Jahr Milliarden in SpaceX pumpt um die mittlerweile 8.000
>>Mitarbeiter zu finanzieren...
>
>
>Aber man muß erst mal in die Position kommen dann solche
>Milliarden-Entwicklungsaufträge zu bekommen. Und NASA hat mit
>einem Vielfachen dgl. selbst nicht zustande gebracht.

Wenn man mal aus erster Hand gehört hat wie umständlich bei der Nasa gearbeitet wird kein Wunder. Da ist mittlerweile zu viel interne Politik drinnen, die beschäftigen sich nur mit sich selbst.

  

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>Respekt! Da werd sogar ich noch ein Musk Fan.

>
>Ich wüßte jedenfalls nicht welche organisatorische/engineering-
>Leistung der von ihm mit SpaceX seit 2002 gleich
>kommt. "Unglaublich" beschreibt es nicht annähernd.


ja, PS 26.000.000, Gew. über 500 tonnen.

  

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775 Mio. Dollar für Tesla-Chef Musk

s US-Elektroautoherstellers Tesla beschert Konzernchef Elon Musk einen großen Zahltag. Der Starunternehmer hat sich die Hunderte Millionen Dollar schwere erste Tranche eines hoch dotierten langfristigen Vergütungsplans verdient, der an das Erreichen bestimmter Zielmarken etwa beim Börsenwert und bei der Umsatzentwicklung von Tesla gekoppelt ist. Das teilte das Unternehmen gestern (Ortszeit) der US-Börsenaufsicht SEC mit.

Die erste Tranche umfasse 1,7 Millionen Tesla-Aktien, deren letzter Schlusskurs bei knapp 806 Dollar (732 Euro) lag und die Musk nun zum Optionspreis von 350 Dollar erstehen könnte. Aus der Differenz würde sich ein Buchgewinn von rund 775 Mio. Dollar (704 Mio. Euro) ergeben. Allerdings muss Musk die Papiere mindestens fünf Jahre halten, bis dahin könnte der Kurs schon wieder ganz woanders stehen.

Zwölf Ziele in 50-Mrd.-Schritten
Der Tesla-Chef bezieht kein reguläres Gehalt, profitiert aber stark, wenn der Konzern bestimmte Vorgaben erreicht. So waren bei Musks Vertragsverlängerung um weitere zehn Jahre als Vorstandschef Anfang 2018 etwa zwölf Zielmarken in Schritten von 50 Mrd. Dollar für den Börsenwert vereinbart worden. Tatsächlich schaffte es Tesla, dauerhaft eine Marktkapitalisierung von mehr als 100 Mrd. Dollar zu erreichen, zuletzt lag sie sogar bei fast 150 Mrd. Dollar.

  

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Tesla vergünstigt Elektroautos deutlich – auch in Österreich

In Österreich schlägt sich die Preissenkung übrigens ebenso nieder. Das Model S gibt es nun um 82.990 statt 88.990 Euro und das Model X um 10.000 Euro günstiger. Beim Einsteigerauto Model 3 hat man am Preis nichts verändert. Das Fahrzeug ist ab 46.700 Euro bei Tesla Österreich zu haben.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117788367/tesla-verguenstigt-elektroautos-deutlich-a uch-in-oesterreich

  

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1. Hyundai Kona Electric, 259 miles (258 EPA miles)

2. Jaguar I-Pace, 253 miles (234 EPA miles)

2. Kia Niro EV, 253 miles (239 EPA miles)

4. Tesla Model 3 Performance, 239 miles (299 EPA miles)

5. Tesla Model X P100D, 233 miles (289 EPA miles)

6. Nissan LEAF e+, 217 miles (226 EPA miles)

7. Mercedes-Benz EQC, 208 miles (259 WLTP miles - anticipated 220 EPA miles)

8. Tesla Model S 75kWh, 204 miles (259 EPA miles)

9. Audi e-tron, 196 miles (204 EPA miles)

10. Renault ZOE R135, 192 miles (238 WLTP miles)

11. Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, 181 miles (250 EPA miles)

12. BMW i3 120Ah, 165 miles (153 EPA miles)

https://insideevs.com/news/407807/eletric-car-real-world-range-tested/

  

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Finden sich sicher wieder genug real life beta Tester

CR finds that the new automatic lane-changing feature is far less competent than a human driver

In practice, we found that the new Navigate on Autopilot lane-changing feature lagged far behind a human driver’s skills. The feature cut off cars without leaving enough space, and even passed other cars in ways that violate state laws, according to several law enforcement representatives CR interviewed for this report. As a result, the driver often had to prevent the system from making poor decisions.

“The system’s role should be to help the driver, but the way this technology is deployed, it’s the other way around,” says Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ senior director of auto testing. “It’s incredibly nearsighted. It doesn’t appear to react to brake lights or turn signals, it can’t anticipate what other drivers will do, and as a result, you constantly have to be one step ahead of it.”

https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/tesla-navigate-on-autopilot-automatic- lane-change-requires-significant-driver-intervention/

  

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und warum fehlt das einzige vernünftige Elektroauto? Der Porsche Taycan Turbo?

>
>1. Hyundai Kona Electric, 259 miles (258 EPA miles)
>
>2. Jaguar I-Pace, 253 miles (234 EPA miles)
>
>2. Kia Niro EV, 253 miles (239 EPA miles)
>
>4. Tesla Model 3 Performance, 239 miles (299 EPA miles)
>
>5. Tesla Model X P100D, 233 miles (289 EPA miles)
>
>6. Nissan LEAF e+, 217 miles (226 EPA miles)
>
>7. Mercedes-Benz EQC, 208 miles (259 WLTP miles - anticipated
>220 EPA miles)
>
>8. Tesla Model S 75kWh, 204 miles (259 EPA miles)
>
>9. Audi e-tron, 196 miles (204 EPA miles)
>
>10. Renault ZOE R135, 192 miles (238 WLTP miles)
>
>11. Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, 181 miles (250 EPA
>miles)
>
>12. BMW i3 120Ah, 165 miles (153 EPA miles)
>
>https://insideevs.com/news/407807/eletric-car-real-world-range-tested/

  

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The surge in Tesla Inc.’s shares so far this month moved Elon Musk’s company even closer to displacing Toyota Motor Corp. as the world’s most valuable carmaker.

With a market capitalization of more than $190 billion, Tesla still has some distance to close to reach Toyota’s $210 billion valuation, which includes treasury shares

  

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Tesla plant neue Fabrik

Tesla-Chef Elon Musk treibt nach Medieninformationen den Bau einer Batterieforschungs- und -produktionsanlage in Kalifornien voran. Mit dem Projekt unter dem Namen „Roadrunner“ will der US-Elektrofahrzeughersteller nach einem Ausbau seines Werks in Fremont eigene Autobatterien herstellen. Das geht aus einem Dokument der Stadtregierung hervor, das Reuters am Mittwoch einsehen konnte. Einschließlich der Installation aller Fertigungsanlagen könnte der Bau gemäß dem Antrag in etwa drei Monaten abgeschlossen sein, heißt es darin.

In dem Werk würden dann insgesamt 470 Beschäftigte angestellt sein, davon 400 „im Schichtbetrieb, so dass 100 Mitarbeiter rund um die Uhr in der Fertigung und in der Produktion arbeiten“, heißt es weiter.

https://www.diepresse.com/5830934/tesla-plant-neue-fabrik

  

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>Einschließlich der Installation aller Fertigungsanlagen könnte der Bau
>gemäß dem Antrag in etwa drei Monaten abgeschlossen sein

Da kann man als Europäer nur staunen.

  

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Tesla Shares Top $1,000 Again on Musk’s Break-Even Optimism

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s stock price climbed back above $1,000 after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk suggested the electric-car maker may be able to avoid a second-quarter loss.

“Breaking even is looking super tight,” Musk wrote in an email to employees obtained by Bloomberg and first reported by Electrek. “Really makes a difference for every car you build and deliver. Please go all out to ensure victory!”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-climb-back-above-200529756.html

  

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>Tesla wieder +10%
>Meldung seh ich nicht?

Am Donnerstag gab es offenbar sehr gute Auslieferungszahlen (25% über Erwartungen). Das wirkt vielleicht noch etwas nach.
Ich sehe vor allem Momentum.

  

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>>Tesla wieder +10%
>>Meldung seh ich nicht?
>
>Am Donnerstag gab es offenbar sehr gute Auslieferungszahlen
>(25% über Erwartungen). Das wirkt vielleicht noch etwas nach.
>
>Ich sehe vor allem Momentum.

Die shorts verkaufen sich ziemlich gut.
https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-short-shorts

Bei der Bilanz erwarte ich mir Ähnlichkeiten zu Wirecard.

  

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>Tesla Short Shorts
>$69.420
>
>https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-short-shorts

Solche Shorts möchte ich auch, glaube ich.
Der RSI von TESLA ist von "sowas von überkauft" auf "ziemlich überkauft" bis "mäßig überkauft" zurückgefallen (je nach Parametereinstellung), ohne eine tatsächliche Korrektur des Kursgeschehens, dass ich hier eine Bereinigung noch für wahrscheinlich halte.

Die Provokanz des obigen Angebots entspricht der Natur Musks und erinnert natürlich an Sprichwörter wie "Hochmut kommt vor dem Fall".

Leider kann das noch ein Weilchen dauern und Shorts hält man nicht gerne geduldig. Muss ich mir noch überlegen.

  

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>>Tesla Short Shorts
>>$69.420
>>
>>https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-short-shorts
>
>Solche Shorts möchte ich auch, glaube ich.
>Der RSI von TESLA ist von "sowas von überkauft" auf "ziemlich
>überkauft" bis "mäßig überkauft" zurückgefallen (je nach
>Parametereinstellung), ohne eine tatsächliche Korrektur des
>Kursgeschehens, dass ich hier eine Bereinigung noch für
>wahrscheinlich halte.
>
>Die Provokanz des obigen Angebots entspricht der Natur Musks
>und erinnert natürlich an Sprichwörter wie "Hochmut kommt vor
>dem Fall".
siehe auch den Preis: 69.420

Die 420 sind offenbar Anspielung auf den "Preis 420, Funding secured" -Tweet der ihn so in Schwierigkeiten mit der SEC gebracht hat.

  

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>>>Tesla Short Shorts
>>>$69.420
>>>
>>>https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-short-shorts
>>
>>Solche Shorts möchte ich auch, glaube ich.
>>Der RSI von TESLA ist von "sowas von überkauft" auf
>"ziemlich
>>überkauft" bis "mäßig überkauft" zurückgefallen (je nach
>>Parametereinstellung), ohne eine tatsächliche Korrektur
>des
>>Kursgeschehens, dass ich hier eine Bereinigung noch für
>>wahrscheinlich halte.
>>
>>Die Provokanz des obigen Angebots entspricht der Natur
>Musks
>>und erinnert natürlich an Sprichwörter wie "Hochmut kommt
>vor
>>dem Fall".
>siehe auch den Preis: 69.420
>
>Die 420 sind offenbar Anspielung auf den "Preis 420, Funding
>secured" -Tweet der ihn so in Schwierigkeiten mit der SEC
>gebracht hat.

Also war beim Durchlesen auch sofort mein Gedanke, quasi fast jeder Punkt check, check, ...

Er ist ein klassischer Fall zwischen Genie und Wahnsinn, erfahrungsgemäß gewinnt die "Wahnsinnkomponente" mit zunehmenden Alter die Oberhand.


Passend dazu:

Eine Frage der Weltgeschichte: Muss man außergewöhnlich sein, um Außergewöhnliches zu leisten? Und was heißt außergewöhnlich? Bloß wunderlich, ganz speziell intellektuell, mental auffällig oder sogar psychisch gestört? Da ist die Studie der Cass Business School in London, in der mehr als jeder dritte Firmengründer bekennt, Legastheniker zu sein. Die Lese- und Rechtschreibstörung tritt bei Unternehmenslenkern demnach achtmal häufiger auf als im Durchschnitt der Bevölkerung.

Oder ADHS. Studenten mit dem Aufmerksamkeitsdefizit-Hyperaktivitätssyndrom, so haben Forscher der Erasmus-Universität Rotterdam beobachtet, werden später mit überdurchschnittlich großer Wahrscheinlichkeit ein Unternehmen gründen.

Es kann sogar ganz schlimm kommen: Konzernkarrieristen sind übermäßig häufig gefährliche Irre. In den Führungsetagen von Unternehmen finden sich dreieinhalbmal so viele Psychopathen wie im Durchschnitt der Bevölkerung, wie Robert Hare, Psychologe und Forensiker aus Vancouver, und der New Yorker Unternehmensberater Paul Babiak durch Hunderte von Interviews herausgefunden haben.

Zwischen Legasthenie und Psychopathie liegt eine gewaltige Spanne von mentalen Defiziten – sie reicht von der Rechenschwäche bis zum Narzissmus, von der Depression über die bipolare Störung bis hin zum Autismus. Mal sind die Leiden relativ harmlos, mal schwerwiegend. Und alle diese Verrücktheiten stehen in einer seltsamen Verbindung zum beruflichen Erfolg.

https://www.zeit.de/2013/34/psychopaten-irre-erfolgreich-manager

  

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Musk is making some bold claims that Tesla will have “the basic functionality for level 5 autonomy complete this year.” At least he’s leaving himself some wiggle room – what does “basic functionality” mean??? The definition of Level 5 is very clear:


Level 5 vehicles do not require human attention―the “dynamic driving task” is eliminated. Level 5 cars won’t even have steering wheels or acceleration/braking pedals. They will be free from geofencing, able to go anywhere and do anything that an experienced human driver can do.

  

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Keine Spezial-News heute und Tesla steigt wieder 10%.
Irgendwie ein typisches Beispiel dafür, wenn eine Aktie hauptsächlich steigt, weil sie steigt.
Gewinnchancenmitnahme vorm Wochenende, auch FOMO genannt.

  

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>Keine Spezial-News heute und Tesla steigt wieder 10%.
>Irgendwie ein typisches Beispiel dafür, wenn eine Aktie
>hauptsächlich steigt, weil sie steigt.
>Gewinnchancenmitnahme vorm Wochenende, auch FOMO genannt.


TSLA Rockets Higher Again As 'Someone' Panic-Buys Massively OTM Call Options

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tsla-rockets-higher-again-someone-panic-buys-massively- otm-call-options

  

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>>Keine Spezial-News heute und Tesla steigt wieder 10%.
>>Irgendwie ein typisches Beispiel dafür, wenn eine Aktie
>>hauptsächlich steigt, weil sie steigt.
>>Gewinnchancenmitnahme vorm Wochenende, auch FOMO genannt.
>
>
>TSLA Rockets Higher Again As 'Someone' Panic-Buys Massively
>OTM Call Options
>
>https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tsla-rockets-higher-again-someone-panic-buys-massively- otm-call-options
>
Also was du immer herauskriegst in kurzer Zeit, sehr beeindruckend!
Wenn die Info so zutrifft, wie dargestellt, sollte der Zauber aber innerhalb einer Woche vorbei sein.
Sofern nicht die beschworenen Algorithmen ihre Nachlaufzeit haben. Aber wenn das stimmt, hat jemand mit viel Insiderwissen mit im Verhältnis wenig Geld Berge zum Kreisen gebracht.

Wenn das Methode hat, wird die Börse noch irrationaler, als sie es sowieso schon ist. Dann ist es nur mehr ein Pokerspiel, das fast ausschließlich die mechanische Reaktion der Marktteilnehmer und deren Instrumente einschätzen muss. Ich kann den original Buffett verstehen, wenn er die Finger aus dem Spiel nimmt. Wo doch seinen Beurteilungskriterien der Boden unter den Füßen weggenommen wird, kurzfristig durch Spieler, mittelfristig durch Manipulatoren, wie die FED, und langfristig..., wer will da schon weiterhin seriöse Standpunkte behaupten können.

  

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>>>Keine Spezial-News heute und Tesla steigt wieder 10%.
>>>Irgendwie ein typisches Beispiel dafür, wenn eine Aktie
>>>hauptsächlich steigt, weil sie steigt.
>>>Gewinnchancenmitnahme vorm Wochenende, auch FOMO genannt.
>>
>>
>>TSLA Rockets Higher Again As 'Someone' Panic-Buys Massively
>>OTM Call Options
>>
>>https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tsla-rockets-higher-again-someone-panic-buys-massively- otm-call-options
>>
>Also was du immer herauskriegst in kurzer Zeit, sehr beeindruckend!
>Wenn die Info so zutrifft, wie dargestellt, sollte der Zauber
>aber innerhalb einer Woche vorbei sein.
>Sofern nicht die beschworenen Algorithmen ihre Nachlaufzeit
>haben. Aber wenn das stimmt, hat jemand mit viel Insiderwissen
>mit im Verhältnis wenig Geld Berge zum Kreisen gebracht.
>
>Wenn das Methode hat, wird die Börse noch irrationaler, als
>sie es sowieso schon ist. Dann ist es nur mehr ein Pokerspiel,
>das fast ausschließlich die mechanische Reaktion der
>Marktteilnehmer und deren Instrumente einschätzen muss. Ich
>kann den original Buffett verstehen, wenn er die Finger aus
>dem Spiel nimmt. Wo doch seinen Beurteilungskriterien der
>Boden unter den Füßen weggenommen wird, kurzfristig durch
>Spieler, mittelfristig durch Manipulatoren, wie die FED, und
>langfristig..., wer will da schon weiterhin seriöse
>Standpunkte behaupten können.

Irgendwie erinnert mich das Ganze an die seinerzeitige Betandwin-Geschichte mit dem unsäglichen RobinHood-Pusher-Troll.

  

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>Wenn das Methode hat, wird die Börse noch irrationaler, als
>sie es sowieso schon ist. Dann ist es nur mehr ein Pokerspiel,
>das fast ausschließlich die mechanische Reaktion der
>Marktteilnehmer und deren Instrumente einschätzen muss. Ich
>kann den original Buffett verstehen, wenn er die Finger aus
>dem Spiel nimmt. Wo doch seinen Beurteilungskriterien der
>Boden unter den Füßen weggenommen wird, kurzfristig durch
>Spieler, mittelfristig durch Manipulatoren, wie die FED, und
>langfristig..., wer will da schon weiterhin seriöse
>Standpunkte behaupten können.

Witzig finde ich wie die Leute auf Pleiteunternehmen wie Hertz, Wirecard und Co aufspringen und den Kurs nach oben bringen. Sowas gab es früher nicht.

  

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>
>>Wenn das Methode hat, wird die Börse noch irrationaler,
>als
>>sie es sowieso schon ist. Dann ist es nur mehr ein
>Pokerspiel,
>>das fast ausschließlich die mechanische Reaktion der
>>Marktteilnehmer und deren Instrumente einschätzen muss.
>Ich
>>kann den original Buffett verstehen, wenn er die Finger
>aus
>>dem Spiel nimmt. Wo doch seinen Beurteilungskriterien der
>>Boden unter den Füßen weggenommen wird, kurzfristig durch
>>Spieler, mittelfristig durch Manipulatoren, wie die FED,
>und
>>langfristig..., wer will da schon weiterhin seriöse
>>Standpunkte behaupten können.
>
>Witzig finde ich wie die Leute auf Pleiteunternehmen wie
>Hertz, Wirecard und Co aufspringen und den Kurs nach oben
>bringen. Sowas gab es früher nicht.

Oder sowas https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118643475/wallstreetbets-wenn-menschen-aus-jux-und-t ollerei-mit-aktien-handeln

  

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>>Ich
>>>kann den original Buffett verstehen, wenn er die
>Finger
>>aus
>>>dem Spiel nimmt. Wo doch seinen Beurteilungskriterien
>der
>>>Boden unter den Füßen weggenommen wird, kurzfristig
>durch
>>>Spieler, mittelfristig durch Manipulatoren, wie die
>FED,
>>und
>>>langfristig..., wer will da schon weiterhin seriöse
>>>Standpunkte behaupten können.

Buffett kaufte zu in den letzten Tagen. 10mrd für die NG unit von dominion energy.

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/07/06/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-dominion-energy- natural-gas-duke-energy-atlantic-coast-pipeline/

  

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Die Aktie ist schon ziemlich faszinierend. Ich bin gespannt, wie weit das geht. Wenn es hält, habe ich heuer endlich einmal Chancen auf einen guten Platz im Jahresbewerb.

  

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>Die Aktie ist schon ziemlich faszinierend. Ich bin gespannt,
>wie weit das geht. Wenn es hält, habe ich heuer endlich einmal
>Chancen auf einen guten Platz im Jahresbewerb.

In der Regel kommen solche Exzesse gegen Ende, aber who knows...
Die TSLA ist ja da in einer Sonderliga, aber bis jetzt ist nichts bekannt, dass Musk das Newtonsche Gravitationsgesetz aushebeln konnte.

MARKETS
Tesla gives up 16% pop to close negative in wild speculative trading

Shares of Tesla rose more than 16% to a new all-time high on Monday, before giving back those gains and falling into negative territory during afternoon trading.

At one point during morning trading, Tesla’s market value increased to $321 billion, according to FactSet, making it the 10th-largest U.S. stock by market value.

As the company’s valuation climbs ever higher, speculation is growing that the company will soon join the S&P 500.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/tesla-jumps-11percent-on-sp-500-inclusion-speculation---n ow-the-10th-biggest-us-stock-by-market-value.html

  

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>Und habe verwundert festgestellt, dass die nicht im S&P
>500 sind.


Nein, eine der Bedingungen im S&P sind 4 profitable Quartale in Folge. Das könnte Tesla jetzt schaffen, das ist im Moment auch ein wesentlicher Spekulationstreiber. Das Volumen an Indextrackern im S&P 500 ist enorm, und die müssten dann kaufen.

  

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>>Und habe verwundert festgestellt, dass die nicht im S&P sind.
>
>Nein, eine der Bedingungen im S&P sind 4 profitable Quartale in
>Folge. Das könnte Tesla jetzt schaffen, das ist im Moment auch
>ein wesentlicher Spekulationstreiber. Das Volumen an Indextrackern
>im S&P 500 ist enorm, und die müssten dann kaufen.

Ich glaube, das weiß auch Musk, der sicherlich am Ritterschlag interessiert ist.
Gute Quartalszahlen bei Tesla: Musk verstört Mitarbeiter mit merkwürdiger E-Mail

Musk:
"Aus vielen Gründen wird ein großer Teil der weltweiten Tesla-Arbeit in die letzte Woche des Quartals gepackt. Es ist sehr wichtig, dass wir bis Ende Juni alles daran setzen, ein gutes Ergebnis zu erzielen. Ich würde das nicht zur Sprache bringen, wenn es nicht sehr wichtig wäre."

Auch wenn die Mitarbeiter angeblich rätseln, was er damit meinet, außer, dass grundsätzlich immer alles schneller und höher gehen sollte: Es wird Musk eben nicht wurst sein, ob er 1 Jahr länger auf die Aufnahme in den S&P warten muss.

  

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>Shares of Tesla rose more than 16% to a new all-time high on
>Monday, before giving back those gains and falling into
>negative territory during afternoon trading.

Ich glaube bei Candlestick-Charts ist das eine starke Reversal-Formation.. time will tell.

  

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>>Shares of Tesla rose more than 16% to a new all-time high on
>>Monday, before giving back those gains and falling into
>>negative territory during afternoon trading.
>
>Ich glaube bei Candlestick-Charts ist das eine starke
>Reversal-Formation.. time will tell.

In der Tat. Reversal-Candles haben klassischerweise die Form eines Schwertes, wie bei Tesla heute - bald nach Börsebeginn (im 5min-Chart):


Da in der Tages-Candle die angedeutete Umkehr gleich auch noch soviel weitergeführt - und damit bestätigt - wurde, ist's halt eine recht dochtige Weihnachtskerze geworden, eine starke Reversal-Formation eben:

  

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>Die Aktie ist schon ziemlich faszinierend. Ich bin gespannt,
>wie weit das geht. Wenn es hält, habe ich heuer endlich einmal
>Chancen auf einen guten Platz im Jahresbewerb.

Intradayschwankung vom Hi (+16%) auf Lo (-4,8%) und Schluss bei -3,7%, d.h. eine Bandbreite von über 20% innerhalb eines Tages.
Ohne Nachrichten auf einem der teuersten Einzelposten der Wall Street ist das klar ein rein spekulatives Geschehen, dessen zugrunde liegendes Manöver jetzt möglicherweise sein Ende gefunden hat.
Da kann Tesla diese Woche noch weitere 20% lassen.

Bis näxte Woche bleibt es wohl eine der volatilsten Aktien, die zum Spekulieren einladen:

Quartalszahlen Schätzungen EPS:
1,2400 USD - Q1 2020 - 29.04.2020
Schätzung --- Quartal -- Datum
-0,669 USD - Q2 2020 - 22.07.2020
1,4695 USD - Q3 2020 - 27.10.2020
2,6571 USD - Q4 2020 - 02.02.2021
2,7745 USD - Q1 2021 - 05.05.2021
3,5310 USD - Q2 2021 - 04.08.2021

Wenn die Schätzung zutrifft, dann wartet S&P nochabissi.

  

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Warum die hohe Fahrzeugnachfrage bei Tesla ein Mythos ist

Teilzitate aus dem Artikel, aber nicht aus dem Zusammenhang gerissen

Es gilt als Fakt unter Tesla-Fans, dass die Verkaufszahlen des derzeit an der Börse höchstbewerteten Autoherstellers der Welt durch die Produktionskapazitäten beschränkt sind und nicht durch die Nachfrage. Diese Annahme ist falsch, wie Tesla selbst durch ständige Preissenkungen, Rabatte und Aktionen wie „Gratis schnellladen“ beweist. Die in immer schnellerer Folge aufkommenden Gerüchte um neue Fabrikbauten dienen offenbar vor allem der Ablenkung, und weniger zum Aufbau von unbenötigten Produktionskapazitäten. So senkte Tesla gerade erst die im Bauantrag genannte Produktionskapazität der im Bau befindlichen Fabrik in Brandenburg… um 80%.
...
Die Nachfrage bei Tesla wird von Musk noch stärker übertrieben als die Produktionskapazitäten.
...
Wer doppelt soviel Nachfrage wie Kapazität hat, senkt keine Preise und liefert nicht in zwei Monaten.
...
Und noch eine Unstimmigkeit fällt auf: Obwohl Tesla 2020 zwei Fabriken statt wie 2019 nur eine betreibt, die Auslastung nach eigener Aussage nur bei rund 58% liegt und die Umsätze im 1. Quartal 2020 gegenüber 2019 sanken, konnte Tesla im 1. Quartal 2020 eine höhere Bruttomarge erzielen als ein Quartal zuvor, als die eine Fabrik in Fremont mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit nahe an der maximalen Kapazität produzierte. Diese Quartalszahlen ergeben keinen Sinn. Und wenn sie keinen Sinn ergeben, dann ist Vorsicht angebracht. Zurückkommend auf den zweiten Absatz dieses Artikels: Ich gehe davon aus, dass Tesla deutlich weniger Produktionskapazität hat, als Elon Musk ständig in Aussicht stellt und dass die Nachfrage trotzdem noch zu gering ist, um diese Kapazitäten auszulasten!

  

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Tesla: Zulassungen in Kalifornien brechen wegen Corona-Krise ein

Investing.com - Tesla hat bei den Zulassungen in Kalifornien einen massiven Einbruch hinnehmen müssen. Das geht aus einem Bericht des KfZ-Marktdaten-Unternehmens Cross-Sell hervor, der von Reuters zitiert wird. Demnach sind die Zulassungen in Kalifornien im zweiten Quartal um 48 Prozent auf 9.774 im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum gesunken.
Die Model-3-Zulassungen in Kalifornien, die mehr als die Hälfte der gesamten Tesla-Zulassungen ausmachten, gingen um 63,6 Prozent auf 5.951 Fahrzeuge zurück.
Die Gesamtzahl der Fahrzeugzulassungen in den 23 Bundesstaaten, in denen die Daten erhoben wurden, fiel um fast 49 Prozent auf 18.702 Fahrzeuge.
...
Gestern hatte der amerikanische US-Elektroautohersteller Tesla Berichten zufolge beschlossen, sein Werk in Fremont, Kalifornien, vorübergehend zu schließen. Grund dafür sollen angeblich Modernisierungsarbeiten sein. Betrachtet man aber die Bilder im Burlingame Store, so könnte man zu dem Schluss kommen, dass derzeit die Nachfrage nach Tesla-Autos einfach nicht vorhanden ist und man daher die Produktion herunterfahren muss. Oder aber das Werk in Fremont ist akut Covid-19 gefährdet. So hatte Electrek am Dienstag gemeldet, dass mehr als 130 Tesla-Mitarbeiter positiv auf SARS-CoV-2 getestet wurden, und weitere Testergebnisse stünden noch aus. Vor allem in den letzten zwei Wochen gab es in dem Hauptwerk in Fremont einen starken Spike der Exposition zu Coronaviruen. Ein Dutzend weitere Vertragspartner und Zeitarbeiter, die mit Tesla zu tun haben, wurden ebenfalls positiv getestet.


Am 22.Juli kommen die Q2/2020-Zahlen:
Bisher:


Schätzung EPS für Q2: -0,699 USD
Wenn diese Schätzung nicht ebenso, wie im Vorquartal, erheblich übertroffen wird, wird es kurzfristig nix mit der S&P500-Aufnahme.

  

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Flatex Team:
Aufgrund der hohen Gap-Risiken in Tesla Moros Inc. werden wir den Marginparameter des zugehörigen Aktien-CFD von derzeit 20% auf 40% anheben.
Die Anhebung wird als Overnight Margin umgesetzt.


Da die Spieler in der Regel eher long als short sind, entspringt diese Regeländerung wohl eher den Ängsten in Richtung Downside.

Vorbörslich jedenfalls ca. -5%

  

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Halten paradoxerweise die Tesla-Shorties den Kurs oben?

Aktuelle Shortquote ca. 14 Millionen Stück, oder unglaubliche 13% Prozent der Aktien im Streubesitz, die kurz- bis mittelfristig unter Handlungszwang stehen. Die freiwillige Geiselhaft. Flatex (bei denen bin ich halt gerade mal) hat jetzt z.B. die Marginquote für TSLA-CFDs verdoppelt. Da gibt's sicher viele, die einen Spike in die ungünstige Richtung glattstellen müssen.

Tesla reif für die große Korrektur – wenn da nicht das alte Problem wäre
Derzeit gibt es 181 Millionen Aktien von Tesla, davon befinden sich 59 Prozent im Streubesitz. Größter Anteilseigner ist Elon Musk mit 20,80 Prozent.
Fazit
Das Spiel geht weiter. Shortseller gegen die Firma, gegen Tesla-Fans und Longtrader, gegen die Zeit (es fallen auch Leihgebühren an) und gegen das Urproblem des Leerverkaufs, die notwendige Eindeckung mit der Aktie, um sie zurückgeben zu können.

  

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>Aktuelle Shortquote ca. 14 Millionen Stück, oder unglaubliche
>13% Prozent der Aktien im Streubesitz, die kurz- bis
>mittelfristig unter Handlungszwang stehen. Die freiwillige
>Geiselhaft. Flatex (bei denen bin ich halt gerade mal) hat
>jetzt z.B. die Marginquote für TSLA-CFDs verdoppelt. Da gibt's
>sicher viele, die einen Spike in die ungünstige Richtung
>glattstellen müssen.

Wieso sind die Shorties hier so ein Glücksfall für Tesla? Weil 13% eben sehr viel sind!
Der Effekt hier ist, das eine Minderheit den Wert der Mehrheit radikal beeinflusst. Wenn im Extremfall nur eine einzige von 100 Millionen Aktien gehandelt würde, dann wäre sie der Referenzwert für alle anderen, mit eben dem zuletzt festgesetzten Kurs. Diesen Effekt dürften zuletzt ein paar Kenner der angewandten Börsenalgorithmen genutzt haben, um den Kurs der Aktie weit überproportional zum eingesetzten Kapital gesteuert zu haben.
siehe Warren Buffetts Posting: https://aktien-portal.at/forum/boerse-aktien.php?az=show_mesg&forum=125&topic_id=21739&me sg_id=23322

In diesem Falle bedeutet das, dass vom positiv gestimmten Anteil der Aktien-Longies des Streubesitzes wenige unter Verkaufszwang leiden, außer sie hätten Angst um eine Gewinnmitnahmemöglichkeit. Aber die wenigeren davon sind erst zu den hohen Kursen rein und haben daher noch Luft, selbst bei Korrektur. Und viele davon sind wahrscheinlich eher langfristig orientiert, da ja die absurde Bewertung nur durch Anleihe an weitreichenden Zukunftserwartungen gerechtfertigt werden kann.

Da schauen dann bei nachhaltiger Kursstabilität die scheinbare Minderheit von 13% Shortie-Aktien sehr mächtig positiv kursbestimmend aus, die mit ihrem Kaufzwang genau die eigentliche Absicht konterkarieren.

  

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Seit dem Extremausbruch vom Montag hat sich eine Art gespanntes Armdrücken im Konsensbereich um die Waffenstillstandslinie 1.500$ eingerichtet. Und das seit ca. 4 Tagen.
Offenbar wartet alles gespannt auf die Quartalszahlen, von denen diesmal ja zusätzlich die S&P500-Aufnahme abhängt.

Ich hatte zwar Volatilität bis zum Stichtag erwartet, aber dieses teure Eisen ist wohl vielen zu heiß, um noch vor signifikanter Nachrichtenlage in eine bestimmte Richtung auszubrechen.
Ich habe meine Shorts glattgestellt, denn hier wäre es nur ein Setzen auf Kopf oder Zahl, bekannte Fundamentaldaten spielen bei dieser Schlacht keine Rolle. Ich kann aufgrund der mir bekannten Informationen nicht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit die Richtung des erwartbaren Ausbruchs vorhersagen. Aufgrund der beteiligten Kräfte wird ein solcher aber stattfinden, das halte ich als einziges für ziemlich sicher.
Als reine Daytrading-Maßnahme könnte man sich für Mittwoch in einem gewissen Sicherheitsabstand auf beiden Seiten (short und long) ein Stop-Buy samt einem Take Profit/Stop Loss oder einem Trailing Stop einrichten.

Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil verrückt ist das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.

  

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>Ich habe meine Shorts glattgestellt, denn hier wäre es nur ein
>Setzen auf Kopf oder Zahl, bekannte Fundamentaldaten spielen
>bei dieser Schlacht keine Rolle. Ich kann aufgrund der mir
>bekannten Informationen nicht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit
>die Richtung des erwartbaren Ausbruchs vorhersagen. Aufgrund
>der beteiligten Kräfte wird ein solcher aber stattfinden, das
>halte ich als einziges für ziemlich sicher.
>Als reine Daytrading-Maßnahme könnte man sich für Mittwoch in
>einem gewissen Sicherheitsabstand auf beiden Seiten (short und
>long) ein Stop-Buy samt einem Take Profit/Stop Loss oder einem
>Trailing Stop einrichten.
>
>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil verrückt ist
>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.

Ich denke der Short ist viel zu crowded um einen wesentlichen Einbruch zu sehen. Für einen ordentlichen Rückgang müssen entweder die Shorts kapitulieren oder die Firma reißt eine grobe Brezn.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/mobilitaet-oel-energie/powercell-nel-und-co-wassersto ff-index-im-aufwind-das-sind-die-aktuellen-index-schwergewichte-20199741.html

Schau dir mal die Aktien in diesem Index an. Vollkommen absurde Bewertungen

Oder

https://www.tradegate.de/orderbuch.php?isin=FR0011742329

Halbe Milliarde Marektcap und die Firma macht zweistellige Millionenumsätze.

Das wird irgendwann ein richtiges Shortfestival. Dürfte aber noch dauern, meine ersten drei Versuche waren allesamt durch Verluste gekennzeichnet. D.h. mal abwarten oder nur Miniposi traden.

Letzteres vermutlich demnächst bei McPhy Energy S.A.

  

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>>Ich habe meine Shorts glattgestellt, denn hier wäre es
>nur ein
>>Setzen auf Kopf oder Zahl, bekannte Fundamentaldaten
>spielen
>>bei dieser Schlacht keine Rolle. Ich kann aufgrund der
>mir
>>bekannten Informationen nicht mit großer
>Wahrscheinlichkeit
>>die Richtung des erwartbaren Ausbruchs vorhersagen.
>Aufgrund
>>der beteiligten Kräfte wird ein solcher aber stattfinden,
>das
>>halte ich als einziges für ziemlich sicher.
>>Als reine Daytrading-Maßnahme könnte man sich für Mittwoch
>in
>>einem gewissen Sicherheitsabstand auf beiden Seiten (short
>und
>>long) ein Stop-Buy samt einem Take Profit/Stop Loss oder
>einem
>>Trailing Stop einrichten.
>>
>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil verrückt
>ist
>>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.
>
>Ich denke der Short ist viel zu crowded um einen wesentlichen
>Einbruch zu sehen. Für einen ordentlichen Rückgang müssen
>entweder die Shorts kapitulieren oder die Firma reißt eine
>grobe Brezn.
>
>https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/mobilitaet-oel-energie/powercell-nel-und-co-wassersto ff-index-im-aufwind-das-sind-die-aktuellen-index-schwergewichte-20199741.html
>
>Schau dir mal die Aktien in diesem Index an. Vollkommen
>absurde Bewertungen
>
>Oder
>
>https://www.tradegate.de/orderbuch.php?isin=FR0011742329
>
>Halbe Milliarde Marektcap und die Firma macht zweistellige
>Millionenumsätze.
>
>Das wird irgendwann ein richtiges Shortfestival. Dürfte aber
>noch dauern, meine ersten drei Versuche waren allesamt durch
>Verluste gekennzeichnet. D.h. mal abwarten oder nur Miniposi
>traden.
>
>Letzteres vermutlich demnächst bei McPhy Energy S.A.
>
>

Also bei H - Werten wird gerade ordentlich Luft ausgelassen.
Hab mir mal auch die Bilanz von ITM angesehen.
Da kann man wahrlich nur ungläubig staunen.

  

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>
>
>Seit dem Extremausbruch vom Montag hat sich eine Art
>gespanntes Armdrücken im Konsensbereich um die
>Waffenstillstandslinie 1.500$ eingerichtet. Und das seit ca. 4
>Tagen.
>Offenbar wartet alles gespannt auf die Quartalszahlen, von
>denen diesmal ja zusätzlich die S&P500-Aufnahme abhängt.
>
>Ich hatte zwar Volatilität bis zum Stichtag erwartet, aber
>dieses teure Eisen ist wohl vielen zu heiß, um noch vor
>signifikanter Nachrichtenlage in eine bestimmte Richtung
>auszubrechen.
>Ich habe meine Shorts glattgestellt, denn hier wäre es nur ein
>Setzen auf Kopf oder Zahl, bekannte Fundamentaldaten spielen
>bei dieser Schlacht keine Rolle. Ich kann aufgrund der mir
>bekannten Informationen nicht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit
>die Richtung des erwartbaren Ausbruchs vorhersagen. Aufgrund
>der beteiligten Kräfte wird ein solcher aber stattfinden, das
>halte ich als einziges für ziemlich sicher.
>Als reine Daytrading-Maßnahme könnte man sich für Mittwoch in
>einem gewissen Sicherheitsabstand auf beiden Seiten (short und
>long) ein Stop-Buy samt einem Take Profit/Stop Loss oder einem
>Trailing Stop einrichten.
>
>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil verrückt ist
>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.

Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?

Oder neutral positioniert?

Bin gespannt, normalerweise müsste es lauten sell the facts, aber fraglich ob dies bei so einer Shortquote funktioniert.

  

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>>
>>
>>Seit dem Extremausbruch vom Montag hat sich eine Art
>>gespanntes Armdrücken im Konsensbereich um die
>>Waffenstillstandslinie 1.500$ eingerichtet. Und das seit
>ca. 4
>>Tagen.
>>Offenbar wartet alles gespannt auf die Quartalszahlen,
>von
>>denen diesmal ja zusätzlich die S&P500-Aufnahme
>abhängt.
>>
>>Ich hatte zwar Volatilität bis zum Stichtag erwartet,
>aber
>>dieses teure Eisen ist wohl vielen zu heiß, um noch vor
>>signifikanter Nachrichtenlage in eine bestimmte Richtung
>>auszubrechen.
>>Ich habe meine Shorts glattgestellt, denn hier wäre es nur
>ein
>>Setzen auf Kopf oder Zahl, bekannte Fundamentaldaten
>spielen
>>bei dieser Schlacht keine Rolle. Ich kann aufgrund der
>mir
>>bekannten Informationen nicht mit großer
>Wahrscheinlichkeit
>>die Richtung des erwartbaren Ausbruchs vorhersagen.
>Aufgrund
>>der beteiligten Kräfte wird ein solcher aber stattfinden,
>das
>>halte ich als einziges für ziemlich sicher.
>>Als reine Daytrading-Maßnahme könnte man sich für Mittwoch
>in
>>einem gewissen Sicherheitsabstand auf beiden Seiten (short
>und
>>long) ein Stop-Buy samt einem Take Profit/Stop Loss oder
>einem
>>Trailing Stop einrichten.
>>
>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil verrückt
>ist
>>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.
>
>Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?
>
>Oder neutral positioniert?


Neutral. Unterm Strich hat mich die Aktie schon genug Lehrgeld gekostet.

  

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>>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil
>verrückt
>>ist
>>>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen Sinn.
>>
>>Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?
>>
>>Oder neutral positioniert?
>
>
>Neutral. Unterm Strich hat mich die Aktie schon genug Lehrgeld
>gekostet.

Da befindest du dich in illustrer Gesellschaft.

  

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>
>>>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu, weil
>>verrückt
>>>ist
>>>>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen
>Sinn.
>>>
>>>Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?
>>>
>>>Oder neutral positioniert?
>>
>>
>>Neutral. Unterm Strich hat mich die Aktie schon genug
>Lehrgeld
>>gekostet.
>
>Da befindest du dich in illustrer Gesellschaft.

et tu, @caj

  

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>>
>>>>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu,
>weil
>>>verrückt
>>>>ist
>>>>>das allemal, und keine Börse im herkömmlichen
>>Sinn.
>>>>
>>>>Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?
>>>>
>>>>Oder neutral positioniert?
>>>
>>>
>>>Neutral. Unterm Strich hat mich die Aktie schon genug
>>Lehrgeld
>>>gekostet.
>>
>>Da befindest du dich in illustrer Gesellschaft.
>
>et tu, @caj

Überschaubar, aber ich lass ebenfalls die Finger davon
Wie erwähnt hab jetzt ein paar H Werte am Radar...

  

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>>>
>>>>>>Aber vielleicht schau ich einfach nur zu,
>>weil
>>>>verrückt
>>>>>ist
>>>>>>das allemal, und keine Börse im
>herkömmlichen
>>>Sinn.
>>>>>
>>>>>Popcorn für heute abend schon hergerichtet?
>>>>>
>>>>>Oder neutral positioniert?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Neutral. Unterm Strich hat mich die Aktie schon
>genug
>>>Lehrgeld
>>>>gekostet.
>>>
>>>Da befindest du dich in illustrer Gesellschaft.
>>
>>et tu, @caj
>
>Überschaubar, aber ich lass ebenfalls die Finger davon
>Wie erwähnt hab jetzt ein paar H Werte am Radar...


Wie erwähnt, in der Vergangenheit zwei (sogar erfolgreich) geshortet, aber meine Lektion fürs Leben: Keine Story-Stocks shorten, zumindest nicht outright.

  

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Musk hat nun Anspruch auf 2,1 Milliarden Dollar

Der Manager wird nicht über ein Fixgehalt, sondern über Optionen entlohnt. Zwei von zwölf solchen kann er nun in Anspruch nehmen.

Wegen des Höhenflugs der Tesla-Aktie hat Konzernchef Elon Musk seit Dienstag Anspruch auf einen Geldsegen von 2,1 Milliarden Dollar. An diesem Tag erreichte der E-Auto-Hersteller über einen Zeitraum von sechs Monaten einen durchschnittlichen Börsenwert von 150 Milliarden Dollar. Damit sicherte sich Musk Anspruch auf die zweite von insgesamt zwölf vereinbarten Options-Tranchen. Die erste wurde im Mai gültig. Jede Tranche gibt dem Konzernchef das Recht, 1,69 Millionen Anteilsscheine zum Preis von je 350,02 Dollar zu erwerben. An der Börse waren die Papiere zuletzt knapp 1600 Dollar wert. Musk könnte die beiden Tranchen damit für je 2,1 Milliarden Dollar einlösen.

https://www.diepresse.com/5842724/tesla-chef-musk-hat-nun-anspruch-auf-21-milliarden-doll ar

  

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Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash despite coronavirus

Here were the main results from Tesla’s Q2 report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Revenue: $6.04 billion vs. $5.4 billion expected vs. $6.35 billion Y/Y

GAAP earnings per share: 50 cents, vs. GAAP loss per share of $1.06 expected and GAAP loss per share of $2.31 Y/Y

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q2-2020-results-coronavirus-electric-vehicles-170323 186.html

  

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>Tesla posts surprise Q2 profit, ramping up cash despite coronavirus
>
>Here were the main results from Tesla’s Q2 report, compared to
>consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
>
>Revenue: $6.04 billion vs. $5.4 billion expected vs. $6.35 billion Y/Y
>
>GAAP earnings per share: 50 cents, vs. GAAP loss per share of
>$1.06 expected and GAAP loss per share of $2.31 Y/Y
>
>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q2-2020-results-coronavirus-electric-vehicles-170323 186.html


Gratuliere zur so frühzeitigen Ergebnismitteilung

Der nachbörsliche Handel ist da ja geradezu verhalten:
Nachbörslicher Handel 1.662,00 +72,00 +4,53% 00:38:25

  

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>Der nachbörsliche Handel ist da ja geradezu verhalten:
>Nachbörslicher Handel 1.662,00 +72,00 +4,53% 00:38:25

Börse verkauft mehr Hoffnung als Tatsachen.
Angesichts des Hypes der vergangenen Wochen sind nun die größten Erwartungen erfüllt worden: 1 Jahr positive Ergebnisse (es mutet nicht wirklich erstaunlich an, dass Musk das so hinjonglieren konnte) und damit wahrscheinlich Aufnahme in den S&P500.

Und eine Aktie, die seit Monaten genau das bereits einpreist. Ob die sich in den einschlägigen Foren überschlagenden Stimmen bewahrheiten werden, dass jetzt Kurse von 2.000-3.000 nur abzuholen seien, ist meiner Meinung aber dahingestellt. In vorauseilendem Gehorsam hat bei der Modeaktie einfach alle Spekulation bereits zugegriffen. Jetzt muss geliefert werden, bevor die nächsten 100% draufgesetzt werden.

Langer Rede kurzer Sinn:
Es kann leicht sein, dass TSLA da vielleicht bis 1.800 herumpendelt, aber einen weiteren Sturmlauf investiert jetzt nicht unbedingt mehr jeder. Hamsijaschon. Jetzt warten alle darauf, dass die anderen kaufen.
Klar, Shorties werden Schulden abschichten und Indextracker müssen einkaufen.
Aber die Hoffnung ist jetzt mal raus, weil sie erfüllt wurde.

Paradoxe Welt: so wie Shorties durch ihre Aktivitäten - trotz möglicherweise korrekter Annahmengrundlage in Richtung downside - den Kurs oben halten könnten, könnten Longies - durch bereits übererfüllte Aktivitäten zu ihren Hoffnungen - genau diesen die Luft aus den Segeln genommen haben.

Also würde es mich nicht wundern, wenn wir heute eine reservierte Kursreaktion auf die guten Nachrichten erleben werden, um 15:30h.

  

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>>Der
>Angesichts des Hypes der vergangenen Wochen sind nun die
>größten Erwartungen erfüllt worden: 1 Jahr positive Ergebnisse
>(es mutet nicht wirklich erstaunlich an, dass Musk das so
>hinjonglieren konnte)

Erstaunlich ist nur das es Analysten gibt die das nicht erwarten. In einem einzelnen Quartal ist das Ergebnis das was Musk will. Stichwort Verkauf von regulatory credits und Aktivierung von autonomous driving.

  

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>>>Der
>>Angesichts des Hypes der vergangenen Wochen sind nun die
>>größten Erwartungen erfüllt worden: 1 Jahr positive
>Ergebnisse
>>(es mutet nicht wirklich erstaunlich an, dass Musk das so
>>hinjonglieren konnte)
>
>Erstaunlich ist nur das es Analysten gibt die das nicht
>erwarten. In einem einzelnen Quartal ist das Ergebnis das was
>Musk will. Stichwort Verkauf von regulatory credits und
>Aktivierung von autonomous driving.

Und tatsächlich:

Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits this quarter.
Tesla was also able to recognize revenue from Full Self Driving features, to the tune of $48 million.


Das macht mehr als den ganzen Gewinn aus...

  

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>>Erstaunlich ist nur das es Analysten gibt die das nicht
>>erwarten. In einem einzelnen Quartal ist das Ergebnis das
>was
>>Musk will. Stichwort Verkauf von regulatory credits und
>>Aktivierung von autonomous driving.
>
>Und tatsächlich:
>
>Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits this quarter.
>Tesla was also able to recognize revenue from Full Self
>Driving features, to the tune of $48 million.
>
>
>Das macht mehr als den ganzen Gewinn aus...
>

Ich bin gespannt wie das noch Enden wird. Wäre er schlau würde er versuchen einen Premium Hersteller zu schlucken. VW oder Mercedes würden sich anbieten...

Daimler wird immer billiger https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/corona-krise-daimler-macht-milliardenverlus t-a-8cd5ec77-47d3-424e-a0d2-b61c303aeb43

  

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>Ich bin gespannt wie das noch Enden wird. Wäre er schlau würde
>er versuchen einen Premium Hersteller zu schlucken. VW oder
>Mercedes würden sich anbieten...

Hab ich mir gestern auch gedacht. Und mit eigenen Aktien zahlen. Daimler ist glaube ich der einzige Germane ohne kontrollierendem Aktionär?

  

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>>>>Der
>>>Angesichts des Hypes der vergangenen Wochen sind nun
>die
>>>größten Erwartungen erfüllt worden: 1 Jahr positive
>>Ergebnisse
>>>(es mutet nicht wirklich erstaunlich an, dass Musk das
>so
>>>hinjonglieren konnte)
>>
>>Erstaunlich ist nur das es Analysten gibt die das nicht
>>erwarten. In einem einzelnen Quartal ist das Ergebnis das
>was
>>Musk will. Stichwort Verkauf von regulatory credits und
>>Aktivierung von autonomous driving.
>
>Und tatsächlich:
>
>Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits this quarter.
>Tesla was also able to recognize revenue from Full Self
>Driving features, to the tune of $48 million.
>
>
>Das macht mehr als den ganzen Gewinn aus...
>

Wobei ersteres kein Einmalereignis ist.

The company’s profit was also made possible by the sales of $428 million in emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet regulatory standards. That’s nearly four times as many credits as it sold in the same quarter a year earlier.

  

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>>>>>Der
>>>>Angesichts des Hypes der vergangenen Wochen sind
>nun
>>die
>>>>größten Erwartungen erfüllt worden: 1 Jahr
>positive
>>>Ergebnisse
>>>>(es mutet nicht wirklich erstaunlich an, dass Musk
>das
>>so
>>>>hinjonglieren konnte)
>>>
>>>Erstaunlich ist nur das es Analysten gibt die das
>nicht
>>>erwarten. In einem einzelnen Quartal ist das Ergebnis
>das
>>was
>>>Musk will. Stichwort Verkauf von regulatory credits
>und
>>>Aktivierung von autonomous driving.
>>
>>Und tatsächlich:
>>
>>Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits this
>quarter.
>>Tesla was also able to recognize revenue from Full Self
>>Driving features, to the tune of $48 million.
>>
>>
>>Das macht mehr als den ganzen Gewinn aus...
>>
>
>Wobei ersteres kein Einmalereignis ist.


Nein , aber sie sinken in den nächsten Jahren auf Null.

  

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>Paradoxe Welt: so wie Shorties durch ihre Aktivitäten - trotz
>möglicherweise korrekter Annahmengrundlage in Richtung
>downside - den Kurs oben halten könnten, könnten Longies -
>durch bereits übererfüllte Aktivitäten zu ihren Hoffnungen -
>genau diesen die Luft aus den Segeln genommen haben.
>
>Also würde es mich nicht wundern, wenn wir heute eine
>reservierte Kursreaktion auf die guten Nachrichten erleben
>werden, um 15:30h.

Bald -5%. Kann man als reservierte Kursreaktion durchgehen lassen, bei "überraschend" positiven Q2-Zahlen.

  

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Wie Tesla eine neue Ära in der Autoindustrie einläutete
Teslas Börsenerfolg steht für neues Zeitalter. Gemeinschaftsprojekte in der Vergangenheit waren für Toyota und Mercedes ein Kulturschock.

...

Obwohl die Batterien von Tesla geliefert wurden, hatte der Mercedes eine kürzere Reichweite. Denn die Daimler-Ingenieure gestalteten den Antrieb konservativer, um die Batterie langlebiger zu machen und damit die Gefahr einer Überhitzung zu vermindern, wie ein an dem Projekt beteiligter Daimler-Mitarbeiter erklärt. Die deutschen Ingenieure fanden heraus, dass ihre Kollegen bei Tesla die Batterie keinem Langzeit- Stresstest unterzogen hatten. "Wir mussten ein eigenes Programm für Belastungstests entwerfen", sagt der Ingenieur.

...

Die Daimler-Ingenieure schlugen vor, den Unterboden des Modells S zu verstärken, damit aufspritzende Steine von der Straße die Batterie nicht beschädigen könnten. Um Sicherheitsbedenken nach einigen Batteriebränden zu begegnen, erhöhte Tesla das Fahrzeug über ein ferngesteuertes Software-Update. Ab März 2014 boten die Kalifornier die Nachrüstung eines dreifachen Unterbodenschutzes an. "Er hatte brennende Autos, das hätte unserer Marke massiv geschadet", sagt ein Mercedes-Mann. Doch Musk habe sich so etwas mit dem "Artenschutz eines Exoten" erlauben können.

...

Im Gegensatz dazu ist es für eine auf absolute Sicherheit bedachte Traditionsmarke wie Mercedes eine grausige Vorstellung, eine neue Technologie wie automatisiertes Fahren auszurollen, ohne dass diese jahrelang erprobt worden und ausgereift wäre.

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/wie-tesla-eine-neue-aera-in-der-autoindustrie-einlaeutete/40 0979282

  

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>Der Tesla - Trend in Norwegen ist eigentlich grausam:
>
>https://teslastats.no/
>
>

Auslaufen von Förderungen?
Bzw. wie ist der Gesamttrend bei E-Autos in Norwegen?

  

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>>Der Tesla - Trend in Norwegen ist eigentlich grausam:
>>
>>https://teslastats.no/
>>
>>
>
>Auslaufen von Förderungen?
>Bzw. wie ist der Gesamttrend bei E-Autos in Norwegen?


Bilde mir ein ist stabil. Hätte auch nicht gehört das Norwegen etwas gestrichen hat?

  

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>Der Tesla - Trend in Norwegen ist eigentlich grausam:
>
>https://teslastats.no/
>
>

Der Trend geht aber schon seit März 2019 nach unten. Das ist halt wie bei einem neuen Smartphone Modell.

Werde nie verstehen, wie man sich jetzt zb noch einen Tesla S oder Roadster kauft wo es den Porsche Taycan gibt. Selbiges mit dem X und dem Audi e-tron.

  

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>>Der Tesla - Trend in Norwegen ist eigentlich grausam:
>>
>>https://teslastats.no/
>>
>>
>
>Der Trend geht aber schon seit März 2019 nach unten. Das ist
>halt wie bei einem neuen Smartphone Modell.
>
>Werde nie verstehen, wie man sich jetzt zb noch einen Tesla S
>oder Roadster kauft wo es den Porsche Taycan gibt. Selbiges
>mit dem X und dem Audi e-tron.

ich versteh grundsätzlich nicht warum sich Leute ein Auto um 70.000 € ++ kaufen mit dem sie nicht schneller als 120 unterwegs sind.

  

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>>Werde nie verstehen, wie man sich jetzt zb noch einen
>Tesla S
>>oder Roadster kauft wo es den Porsche Taycan gibt.
>Selbiges
>>mit dem X und dem Audi e-tron.
>
>ich versteh grundsätzlich nicht warum sich Leute ein Auto um
>70.000 € ++ kaufen mit dem sie nicht schneller als 120
>unterwegs sind.
>

Weil es wurscht ist. Es gibt unglaublich viele Leute, die geben 70k aus wie andere einen Hunderter. Natürlich gibt es auch viele die es sich eigentlich nicht leisten können und besser eine U-Bahn Karte kaufen sollten, diesen Teil verstehe ich auch nicht...

  

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>Weil es wurscht ist. Es gibt unglaublich viele Leute, die
>geben 70k aus wie andere einen Hunderter.

Were did I go wrong?

  

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>>Weil es wurscht ist. Es gibt unglaublich viele Leute, die
>>geben 70k aus wie andere einen Hunderter.
>
>Were did I go wrong?

Persönlicher Einsatz ist gefragt. Ich habe extra keinen Tesla bestellt, um meine "Überbezahlt"-These zu stützen. Ich habe also 70K so eingespart wie andere einen Hunderter.

  

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>Tesla's $200 Billion Question Remains Unanswered
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-23/tesla-s-200-billion-question-remain s-unanswered

Kann es die S&P500-Aufnahme behindern, dass der Gewinn nicht über das Kerngeschäft erzielt wurde? Der dreifache Betrag des Gesamtgewinnes der letzten 12 Monate ist in diesem Zeitraum schließlich über den Verkauf der "regulative credits", also etwas Vergleichbares zu Emissionshandel, erzielt worden.

Substanziell fundierter Gewinn hat zwar auch nur einen Wert in USD, aber eine andere Genealogie. Das könnte daher auch zur Gewichtung der Zulassungskriterien im S&P herangezogen werden. Ich weiß nicht, inwieweit hier eine Ermessensgrundlage der Entscheidungsgremien besteht.

  

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>Substanziell fundierter Gewinn hat zwar auch nur einen Wert in
>USD, aber eine andere Genealogie. Das könnte daher auch zur
>Gewichtung der Zulassungskriterien im S&P herangezogen
>werden. Ich weiß nicht, inwieweit hier eine Ermessensgrundlage
>der Entscheidungsgremien besteht.


So weit ich weiß gibt es Aufnahmekriterien, aber die Entscheidung liegt allein beim Indexkomittee.

  

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>>Substanziell fundierter Gewinn hat zwar auch nur einen Wert in
>>USD, aber eine andere Genealogie. Das könnte daher auch zur
>>Gewichtung der Zulassungskriterien im S&P herangezogen werden.
>>Ich weiß nicht, inwieweit hier eine Ermessensgrundlage der
>>Entscheidungsgremien besteht.
>
>So weit ich weiß gibt es Aufnahmekriterien, aber die
>Entscheidung liegt allein beim Indexkomittee.

Da müssen die sich aber auch mit finanzethischen Erwägungen herumschlagen.
1) Zum einen, naja, vier Quartale rechnerischer Gewinn.
2) Zum zweiten ein Marketcap, das viele andere S&P-ler in den Schatten stellt.
x) Aber zum letzten, dass sie genau wissen, dass erstens durch kreative Buchhaltung und zweitens mit als Folge von 1) zu sehen ist. Eine pseudoreligiös orientierte Fangemeinde ist schließlich kein writschaftliches Kriterium, auch wenn es finanzielle Auswirkungen hat.

  

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>The Electric Car Atop Europe’s Sales Charts Isn’t a Tesla or VW
>
>Renault’s Zoe was the region’s No. 1 EV in the first half of the year.
>
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-24/the-electric-car-atop-europe-s-sales-c harts-isn-t-a-tesla-or-vw

Ich glaube, dass der aufkommende Mangel an Exklusivität tatsächlich die größte Beschneidung von Teslas Börsenüberlegenheit darstellen wird.
Sie haben ja flashige Modelle. Aber die Europäer - allen voran VW und Audi - setzen wohl mehr auf How als Wow, und das wird zumindest auf unserem Kontinent umsatzmäßig gewürdigt.
Und billig können auch die Chinesen (Byton und Co.).

  

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>Ich glaube, dass der aufkommende Mangel an Exklusivität tatsächlich
>die größte Beschneidung von Teslas Börsenüberlegenheit darstellen wird.


Gut möglich. Wo Tesla weiterhin führend ist, ist die Autobahntauglichkeit. Nicht durch Zauberei, und auch nicht (nur) durch riesige Batterien, sondern vor allem durch einen unglaublich guten cw-Wert.
Bei der ZOE, die mir grundsätzlich gut gefällt, sollte man die 100km/h lieber nicht allzulange überschreiten, wenn man mit einem halbwegs zivilisierten Verbrauch auskommen will. Sie wurde offensichtlich für den urbanen Raum konzipiert, nicht für die Autobahn.

  

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Elon Musk’s SpaceX in Talks to Raise Funds at $44 Billion Valuation

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is in talks to raise new capital at a valuation of about $44 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The company, better known as SpaceX, is in discussions with investors to raise about $1 billion at a price of $270 a share, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. The round would value the company at about $44 billion, before taking into account the new capital, they said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/musk-s-spacex-in-talks-to-raise-funds- at-44-billion-valuation

  

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Tesla plant eigene Batterieproduktion für Fabrik in Deutschland

US-Elektrokonzern will pro Jahr halbe Million Autos im deutschen Bundesland Brandenburg bauen.

Der US-Elektroautohersteller Tesla will für seine geplante Fabrik in Deutschland die benötigten Batterien selbst an Ort und Stelle produzieren. "Es wird eine lokale Zellproduktion geben, die den Bedürfnissen der Berliner Fabrik gerecht wird", sagte Tesla-Chef Elon Musk nach Angaben des Unternehmens vom Freitag bei einer Online-Konferenz zu den Zahlen des zweiten Quartals.

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/tesla-plant-eigene-batterieproduktion-fuer-fabrik-in-deutsch land/400981226

  

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