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Antworten zu diesem Thema
Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 8, Rang: SieurKolou74(308), 28.2.21 20:53
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Stefan Riße: Mega-Hausse voraus
07.1.21 19:12
Five Reasons Why We Are Inflation Bulls
11.1.21 09:21
Erste Group - Investoren blicken bereits in die Zukunft
13.1.21 11:03
Somebody should be shot
01.2.21 14:51
RE: Somebody should be shot
01.2.21 18:24
Global equity markets rebounded strongly from the prior...
07.2.21 21:52
Fear & Greed Index
13.2.21 12:12
Speculative Traders Add Billions to ‘Meme’ Stocks at Ne...
14.2.21 11:33
      Cathie Wood Risks Having Too Much Money and Not Enough ...
14.2.21 11:35
      Börsenguru Jeremy Grantham warnt
19.2.21 14:14
      Ken Fisher: So sieht sein Depot aus
19.2.21 14:19
Der neue IVA-Chef
20.2.21 15:46
RE: Der neue IVA-Chef
20.2.21 15:54
While there is a lot of talk about bubbles - VIX!
24.2.21 13:54
Jens Ehrhardt: So investiere ich jetzt!
24.2.21 14:40
Global equity markets were weaker into the end of the w...
28.2.21 20:53

Five Reasons Why We Are Inflation Bulls

In the spring of 2020, even when the world was clearly entering the deepest recession in a generation, we argued that the recession would be sharper but shorter. We forecast that the global economy would embark on a V-shaped recovery and that the recession had unleashed forces that would alter inflation’s dynamics.

The consensus was and remains on a different page. Last year, it underestimated the rebound in growth and overestimated the disinflationary impact of COVID-19. This year, it is underestimating both growth and the upside to inflation.

We differ with consensus on how the following five factors will shape the inflation outlook.

First, private sector risk appetite has experienced limited scarring: As we have argued at length, the pandemic was an exogenous shock. Policy-makers were unfettered by moral hazard concerns and had little hesitation about underwriting household and corporate income losses to an unprecedented degree. In particular, while unemployment cost US households US$330 billion in wage income, they have already received US$1 trillion in aggregate in transfers, a figure that will rise as the second round of fiscal stimulus kicks in. The excess saving of about US$1.4 trillion will provide the fuel for pent-up demand to drive a sharp rebound in growth once economies fully reopen. We forecast GDP growth of 5.9%Y for the US in 2021, a full 2 percentage points above the consensus. With the Democrats taking control of the Senate, hopes of further fiscal stimulus have risen (we expect an additional US$1 trillion for COVID-19 aid in the near term and further healthcare/infrastructure spending initiatives later in 2021), along with prospects for an even stronger recovery.

Second, the loss from unemployment overstates the economic loss: Like our growth expectations, our unemployment rate forecasts are more bullish than the consensus. As things stand, about 78% of US job losses have come in COVID-19-sensitive sectors, which will rebound rapidly once the economy fully reopens. Moreover, 68% of the job losses from February-April 2020 are in low-income segments, and one should not overstate the impact on aggregate growth, notwithstanding the need for additional policy support targeting low-income households.

Third, policy-makers are attempting to run the economy red-hot, with the aim of returning the economy to its pre-COVID-19 unemployment rate. However, accelerated restructuring in the economy will mean that displaced workers will need time for retraining. As this process unfolds, the labor market may tighten even earlier than the headline unemployment rate implies. While this dynamic was also at play following the 2008 recession, the recovery was more gradual, which crucially gave businesses and the labor market ample time to adjust.

Fourth, policy-makers are pushing for further transfers to low-income segments, and they are likely to continue reining in the trio of tech, trade and titans in an effort to mitigate the impacts of a lower wage share and higher income inequality. The recession’s disproportionate impact on lower-income households has exacerbated the pre-existing issue of inequality, increasing the impetus for policy-makers to act. Further transfers, especially given how they are now in excess of lost income, will impart an inflationary impulse. Disrupting the trio of tech, trade and titans, which have played an important disinflationary role for the past 30 years, will dampen their disinflationary impulse.

Finally, the Fed is committed to its 2%Y average inflation goal: The consensus believes that it is one thing to target a 2%Y average inflation goal and another to actually get it. But in previous cycles, the Fed had tightened monetary policy well before inflation moved above 2%Y sustainably. This is unlikely to be the case this time, hence any initial rises in inflation will have more time to take hold.

Morgan Stanley


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Erste Group - Investoren blicken bereits in die Zukunft
Erste Group rechnet für 2022 mit Erholung der Unternehmensgewinne

Nach dem für die Märkte schwierigen Coronajahr 2020 blicken die Investoren zu Beginn des neuen Jahres schon wieder in die Zukunft - und setzen ihre Hoffnungen für den heimischen Markt dabei bereits auf das Jahr 2022. "2021 wird nicht unbeschadet zu Ende gehen, die Pandemie ist noch nicht zu Ende", sagte Erste Group-Analyst Christoph Schultes am Dienstag. Für 2022 rechnet der Analyst jedoch damit, dass sich die Gewinne heimischer Unternehmen wieder deutlich erholen werden.

Die Gewinnschätzungen für 2022 sollten in etwa auf dem Niveau von 2019 liegen, so Schultes. Auch bei den Dividendenrenditen sollte es nach den starken Einschnitten des vergangenen Jahres 2022 wieder deutlich bergauf gehen.

Für 2021 werden dagegen noch einmal deutliche Abstriche bei den Dividenden erwartet, so Schultes. Dazu würden unter anderem auch die strengen Vorgaben der Regulatoren für Banken beitragen - in der Branche rechnet der Analyst im ersten Halbjahr 2021 nicht mit Ausschüttungen.

Der ATX dürfte sich im Zuge der für heuer erwarteten Konjunkturerholung im Jahr 2021 dennoch positiv entwickeln. Für das laufende Jahr schätzt Fritz Mostböck, Leiter des Erste Group Research, das ATX-Kursziel bei 3.250 Punkten ein, das entspricht einem Kurspotenzial von rund plus 10 Prozent auf Jahressicht. Der heimische Leitindex sei aktuell attraktiv bewertet und habe daher starkes Aufholpotenzial.

Zudem spielt für den ATX nicht nur die heimische Konjunktur, sondern vor allem auch die Konjunktur in der CEE-Region eine große Rolle - und diese dürfte sich heuer positiv entwickeln. Für die Länder der Region rechnen die Erste Group Analysten mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von durchschnittlich 3,6 Prozent.

Top-Picks für den ATX sind aus Sicht der Erste Group aktuell AT&S, Andritz, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) und Immofinanz. Auch die CA Immo wäre für Schultes ein Top-Pick gewesen, das jüngste Übernahmeangebot für das Unternehmen seitens des US-Investors Starwood ändere jedoch die Sachlage. Am vergangenen Freitag hatte der US-Investor, der bereits knapp 30 Prozent an der CA Immo hält, ein Übernahmeangebot für die übrigen Aktien in Höhe von 34,44 Euro je Papier gelegt.

Für Schultes ist die Offerte nicht attraktiv, er würde Anlegern nicht raten, das Angebot unbedingt anzunehmen. Wenn, dann müsse man über dem Markt verkaufen. Die Aktie befinde sich jedoch seit Montag bereits über dem von Starwood gebotenen Preis. "Wenn man langfristig orientiert ist, muss man auch gar nicht verkaufen, denn die CA Immo wird sich gut entwickeln", so Schultes.

Gefragt nach politischen Impulsen zur Belebung des Aktienmarktes sprach sich Mostböck für eine kürzere Spekulationsfrist für Aktien aus. Im Falle einer Wiedereinführung einer Haltefrist sei ein Jahr zu lange, er plädiere für maximal sechs Monate, besser wären drei Monate. "Je kürzer, umso besser", so Mostböck. "Langfristig sind Aktien eine Anlage und man sollte es nicht als Spekulation sehen", sagte Schultes.


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Die Referenz im letzten Satz:

"in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others"


It’s clear there was utter incompetence on someone’s part. It will be covered up because the Pharma executives are smart enough to know that exposing their clients to ridicule would be expensive from both a regulatory and future orders perspective.

The drug maker agreed to produce the Vaccine at zero-profit on a best-efforts basis. It agreed terms with the UK months ago. Making vaccines isn’t simple, but its fairly well understood second-year brewing and microbiology. To ramp up production isn’t an overnight process. It does require some fairly substantial plant to be fitted, including very large high-spec refrigeration. I’m told these units were delayed, and only fitted in the new UK production facilities over Christmas.

Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about the price on Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they inked the deal and insisted on production in Europe. At that point AZ ordered the required capital plant, including the refrigeration units – which just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the delays.

These delays are entirely due to EU delays in signing the contract. Yet the EU won’t accept its responsibility. What we saw over the weekend was bully-boy swagger. VDL’s coterie were willing to trigger a trade war with the UK, trample rough-shod all over Ireland, and deny UK citizens a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, in punishment for being the home of Astra-Zeneca.

Europe should wake up to the monster they’ve created in Brussels. Someone, probably not VDL herself, but a top level minion, should be shot.

https://morningporridge.com/the-morning-porridge/f/blain%E2%80%99s-morning-porridge-%E2%8 0%93-feb-1-2021-what-ever-you-want


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> Back in Yoorp, it took the EU a further 3 months of quibbling about
> the price on Astra-Zeneca’s contract (a zero-profit deal) before they
> inked the deal and insisted on production in Europe. At that point AZ
> ordered the required capital plant, including the refrigeration units
> – which just like in the UK are taking time to instal – hence the delays.
> These delays are entirely due to EU delays in signing the contract.

Also, wenn der Käufer länger verhandelt, bis man sich einig ist, muss sich der Verkäufer nicht an die ausverhandelten Bedingungen halten?

Es mag schon etwas schlecht gelaufen sein, aber dieser Argumentation kann ich nicht folgen.


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• Global equity markets rebounded strongly from the prior week’s pullback. Banks were the best performer, while Staples lagged. Eurozone and Japan were top, while the UK underperformed. Bond yields are breaking out, and the yield curve steepening, which is supportive of our preference for Financials.

Our Global equity strategists argued on Monday that markets should end up fading the recent technical distortions and certain fundamental headwinds, and continue to believe that risky assets will advance in 1H, with any weakness serving as an opportunity to add. Technically, the short squeeze appears well advanced, and stretched sentiment/positioning seen after the sharp November bounce has largely unwound. 100% of the time post the VIX spike, such as seen last week, stocks would be higher over the next 1 and 6 months, outside recessions. Fundamentally, weak February dataflow, stronger USD and mixed earnings reaction are likely obstacles and China credit impulse is peaking. However, our strategists believe that the market is closer to be able to look through most of these headwinds, and refocus on the likely activity re-acceleration in March-April timeframe.



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In a quiet week by 2021 standards, the speculative excesses that have defined this bull market hit new records with little fanfare.

Wild trades from penny stocks and “meme” cryptocurrencies to cannabis companies surged to all-time highs. U.S. equity indexes rose anew. And skeptics on the everything rally found more reasons to fret over market froth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/speculative-traders-add-billions-to-me me-stocks-at-new-records?srnd=markets-vp


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“Too much money” is not a phrase heard often on Wall Street, but for a thematic fund specialist like Ark, it could be a headache. The business Wood founded seven years ago invests in future-focused trends like genomics and robotics, and there are only so many stocks that fit the bill.

As the cash continues to pour in, Ark already owns 10% or more of at least 24 companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They include Invitae Corp., Cerus Corp., and CRISPR Therapeutics AG.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/cathie-wood-risks-having-too-much-mone y-and-not-enough-stocks


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Als Gründer der Vermögensverwaltung Fisher Investment verwaltet er selbstständig das Vermögen der Anleger. Sein Privatvermögen beträgt über vier Milliarden US-Dollar ...

Quelle: https://www.etf-nachrichten.de/star-investor-ken-fisher-so-sieht-sein-depot-aus/


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. While there is a lot of talk about bubbles – it is hard to see one in the broad equity market, where a dominant group (FANGs) practically hasn’t moved for 6 months despite massive amount of stimulus and an expected economic recovery, Financials that have barely recovered 2020 losses, and Energy that is still down 25% from last year despite a commodity bull market. We did identify some relatively contained market segments that appear to be in a bubble related to EV, renewable energy and innovations stocks . If we want to be thorough in our search for bubbles, there is another asset that is currently in a bubble – the VIX. The VIX is now disconnected to underlying short term S&P 500 realized volatility, indicating a bubble of fear and demand from investors looking to hedge or profit from a hypothetical market selloff.



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• Global equity markets were weaker into the end of the week, due to worries over the too fast repricing of bond yields, and a move up in real yields. Value was strong vs Momentum. Travel & Leisure, Banks, Energy and Insurance were the best performers this week, while Tech and Staples were the worst. Regionally, European equities outperformed, while Asia lagged.

• Our Global Equity strategists were looking for a breakout in bond yields, and expect further repricing. They believe that equities should be able to absorb well the current breakout. Value rotation should advance in this backdrop, as long as yields are rising for the right reasons – growth backdrop remains supportive and tapering concerns are pushed out.



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