Seid gierig, wenn andere ängstlich sind, und seid ängstlich, wenn andere gierig sind (Warren Buffett)

An der Börse sagt uns oft das Gefühl, was mir machen, und der Verstand, was wir vermeiden sollen. (André Kostolany)

Das Wissen um den richtigen Zeitpunkt ist der halbe Erfolg. (Couve de Murville)

Das Geheimnis des Börsengeschäfts liegt darin, zu erkennen, was der Durchschnittsbürger glaubt, dass der Durchschnittsbürger tut. (John Maynard Keynes)

Die ganze Börse hängt davon ab, ob es mehr Aktien gibt als Idioten oder mehr Idioten als Aktien. (André Kostolany)

Risiko entsteht dann, wenn Anleger nicht wissen, was sie tun. (Warren Buffet)

  

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Antworten zu diesem Thema
Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7, Rang: SieurKolou74(324), 05.1.21 07:35
Subject Auszeichnungen Author Message Date ID
Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
03.2.18 16:11
1
RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger
04.2.18 06:01
2
      RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anlegerinteressant
04.2.18 23:00
3
      @byronwien
05.2.18 05:44
4
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 10:46
5
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
05.2.18 18:43
6
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 21:05
7
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 22:49
8
      crash
05.2.18 23:02
9
      RE: crash
06.2.18 10:15
10
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:14
11
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:34
12
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:35
13
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:51
14
      RE: @byronwien
05.2.18 23:59
15
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 00:14
16
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 06:08
17
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 07:11
18
      RE: @byronwieninteressantinteressantinteressant
06.2.18 07:35
19
      Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 07:42
20
      RE: Auch Tokio stürzt mit
06.2.18 08:00
21
      VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility ...interessant
06.2.18 08:07
22
      Here's Who Owned Those Crumbling VIX Notes as of Last F...
06.2.18 08:15
23
      Inverse VIX - how it works
06.2.18 09:56
24
      Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poiso...
06.2.18 11:39
25
      RE: Inverse VIX - Prospekt lesen zahlt sich gelegentlic...
07.2.18 22:22
26
      VIX-Knockout bei CS
12.2.18 14:32
27
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 12:07
28
      RE: @byronwien
06.2.18 17:45
29
      RE: @byronwiengut analysiert
06.2.18 17:57
30
      Inflation ist alles
06.2.18 18:01
31
      A healthy pullback
07.2.18 14:38
32
Fed implications of the employment report
05.2.18 08:41
33
`Buy the Dip' Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout...
06.2.18 13:21
34
buying opportunity?
08.2.18 17:47
35
Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat
09.2.18 13:41
36
Max Otte: „Unser Finanzsystem kollabiert ...“
10.2.18 14:17
37
CTAs and Risk Parity funds
11.2.18 10:52
38
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe...
11.2.18 18:55
39
Keine Bärenphase, sondern nur Korrektur? interessant
12.2.18 13:03
40
These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage
12.2.18 13:43
41
Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says...
12.2.18 16:45
42
Financial markets are all about stories
12.2.18 17:14
43
All the President's deficits
13.2.18 14:36
44
Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen
14.2.18 16:26
45
Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces
18.2.18 17:26
46
Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn
18.2.18 17:56
47
Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit...
19.2.18 10:03
48
We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each ...
19.2.18 14:21
49
The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages
19.2.18 14:45
50
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real ...
20.2.18 10:25
51
BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges...
20.2.18 10:49
52
U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', G...
22.2.18 22:00
53
US Inflation
23.2.18 15:00
54
QE ending
25.2.18 15:02
55
Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn'...
26.2.18 21:13
56
US stock buybacks are running at a record pace
03.3.18 10:23
57
Has the marginal equity buyer gone?
05.3.18 10:35
58
ECB Takes Steinhoff Losses in Its Stride
06.3.18 08:26
59
growth momentum is still robust and above-trend
09.3.18 10:50
60
The Tide Isn’t Turning on Trade
11.3.18 14:08
61
Our US Equity strategists remain positive
19.3.18 10:21
62
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive
19.3.18 10:23
63
      Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks
19.3.18 10:47
64
      RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht z...
19.3.18 15:02
65
ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich...
20.3.18 12:31
66
Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Ev...
22.3.18 10:03
67
Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to ...
23.3.18 12:30
68
JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware ...
25.3.18 16:32
69
What perhaps stood out the most about the price action ...
26.3.18 12:08
70
What Keeps Dalio Up At Night:
26.3.18 17:03
71
RE: Trump
27.3.18 09:56
72
Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktiensch...
04.4.18 13:32
73
RE: Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktie...
04.4.18 13:35
74
JPM: Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US
10.4.18 16:09
75
Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin...
12.4.18 15:17
76
Debatte um Banken-Verluste
17.4.18 08:51
77
Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curv...
16.4.18 12:57
78
Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America Firs...
17.4.18 14:42
79
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not ...
23.4.18 16:20
80
10 Reasons To Short
23.4.18 16:27
81
The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund
23.4.18 16:54
82
Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Adv...
30.4.18 21:38
83
Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about t...
23.4.18 19:29
84
JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside i...
24.4.18 15:27
85
Warren Buffett explains how you could've turned $114 in...
25.4.18 15:05
86
The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings b...
30.4.18 15:19
87
Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
06.5.18 15:16
88
Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt
07.5.18 10:53
89
RE: Das Warren Buffet Strategie
07.5.18 10:57
90
Global equities remain in a consolidation mode
07.5.18 15:34
91
We remain positive on equities based on two strong fund...
07.5.18 16:49
92
      non-linear burst in wage and price inflation?
07.5.18 17:06
93
Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
01.6.18 16:22
94
RE: Trump twittert:
03.6.18 20:50
95
Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamen...
02.6.18 18:52
96
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
12.6.18 08:37
97
ECB policy announcement a material negative for the eur...
14.6.18 14:56
98
A yield curve inversion at the longer end also
18.6.18 09:14
99
Fed: This is not a consistent forecast
19.6.18 13:48
100
The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify
20.6.18 16:31
101
Trade war tensions
27.6.18 11:03
102
RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapita...
27.6.18 14:07
103
Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause
02.7.18 21:42
104
Trade war noch egal
09.7.18 10:36
105
Autos have never been this cheap
09.7.18 18:06
106
Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschü...
13.7.18 12:05
107
Economics:
15.7.18 12:41
108
Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity
15.7.18 12:50
109
Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and mo...
16.7.18 15:15
110
How strong is corporate activity?
16.7.18 15:51
111
Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimi...
18.7.18 09:45
112
Quantifying trade war is difficult
18.7.18 17:39
113
Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 14:59
114
RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data
19.7.18 15:21
115
@realDonaldTrump: Euro ist manipuliert
20.7.18 14:51
116
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:31
117
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch gut analysiertwitzig
20.7.18 16:51
118
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 16:53
119
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 17:04
120
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:08
121
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 19:39
122
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:07
123
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
20.7.18 20:15
124
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 11:30
125
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch
21.7.18 13:10
126
RE: @realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch interessant
21.7.18 13:50
127
RE: @realDonaldTrump: Vorschlag: Drop all Tariffs
25.7.18 11:14
128
How late is the cycle?
21.7.18 09:05
129
Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting seas...
23.7.18 15:21
130
Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constr...
29.7.18 17:14
131
Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earni...
05.8.18 17:03
132
Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates t...
06.8.18 09:48
133
Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg
06.8.18 11:29
134
Earning season so far
06.8.18 11:38
135
US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise
06.8.18 14:29
136
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel a...
10.8.18 14:51
137
RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise weni...
12.8.18 12:18
138
Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious
12.8.18 16:47
139
WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich ...
13.8.18 15:11
140
Turkey: What are the risks?
16.8.18 12:24
141
Trade War Won’t Dent China’s GDP
20.8.18 09:40
142
„Investment-Punk“ im Interview
02.9.18 22:45
143
RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 05:44
144
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 06:13
145
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:09
146
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 10:53
147
      RE: „Investment-Punk“ im Interview
03.9.18 11:24
148
Alois Wögerbauer: Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht l...
04.9.18 08:41
149
A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade h...
10.9.18 20:41
150
Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce i...
17.9.18 12:32
151
Goldman Says Rising U.S. Rates ‘Boiling the Frog’ of Ri...
17.9.18 15:56
152
"Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gewinnt Trump im Handelskrieg"
19.9.18 10:07
153
Das Fed-Problem
21.9.18 11:38
154
Cyclicals will rebound
23.9.18 16:33
155
Ölpreisprognoseanhebung
23.9.18 18:17
156
Nowotny, seufz
23.9.18 19:51
157
RBI-Brezinschek: Gute Aussichten für Wirtschaft und Fin...
28.9.18 16:02
158
JPMorgan Says U.S.-China Tariffs to Go All Out
30.9.18 15:47
159
„Schieferfelder sind relativ rasch leer gepumpt“
02.10.18 09:48
160
Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields
09.10.18 14:31
161
Why are retail investors still cautious?
09.10.18 14:48
162
US-China tension and US equity selloff
11.10.18 12:34
163
Unfair to make comparisons between Italy and Greece
11.10.18 12:39
164
The
11.10.18 14:21
165
Update on Market Moves
12.10.18 19:05
166
JPMorgan: The dip should be bought
13.10.18 10:35
167
The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be...
13.10.18 13:49
168
Global Equity Strategy View
13.10.18 14:06
169
Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China
15.10.18 10:13
170
JPMorgan Global Equity strategists
21.10.18 16:31
171
US: Majority of systematic selling behind (~80%)
21.10.18 16:33
172
Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved
25.10.18 15:09
173
some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex
30.10.18 18:14
174
Crowding out?
31.10.18 14:41
175
VIX has produced a buy signal
03.11.18 19:56
176
US economy remains the most competitive economy in the ...
05.11.18 07:55
177
Two competing narratives
06.11.18 10:51
178
split Congress is the best outcome for US and global eq...
07.11.18 18:08
179
Lower oil prices is good news
14.11.18 21:47
180
JPM Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equitie...
18.11.18 14:16
181
Will Value Come Back?
18.11.18 15:01
182
Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Bank...
02.12.18 15:44
183
JPMorgan Asset Says Cash Better Than Stocks First Time ...
04.12.18 10:22
184
Goldman Sees Another Weak Year After a Lousy 2018
04.12.18 15:10
185
2018 will mark the year of the great de-rating
05.12.18 10:18
186
Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at 2019 an...
05.12.18 15:29
187
Erste-Fondsmanager für 2019 optimistisch: Mehr Chancen ...
05.12.18 16:57
188
No need to worry
07.12.18 08:21
189
RE: No need to worry
07.12.18 10:23
190
We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bonds
08.12.18 14:29
191
RE: We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bond...
08.12.18 14:59
192
US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 18:15
193
RE: US Equities in 2019
09.12.18 19:00
194
      RE: US Equities in 2019
10.12.18 08:41
195
      Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...interessant
10.12.18 12:56
196
      RE: Invest-Profi Ken Fisher rät ...
10.12.18 13:29
197
      2018 has delivered losses on almost every asset class
10.12.18 14:34
198
      Extreme Fear
10.12.18 17:43
199
      Re: Extreme fear
10.12.18 22:04
200
Gehälter steigen
12.12.18 19:30
201
China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:02
202
RE: China is rewriting its 2025 policy
13.12.18 16:08
203
ECB: there was one surprise
15.12.18 20:03
204
Equity markets arrested their decline this week
16.12.18 13:05
205
RBI: Märkte dürften alte Sorgen auch ins Jahr 2019 mitz...
19.12.18 14:06
206
Making Sense of the December Risk-off
20.12.18 08:52
207
World’s biggest hedge fund says stocks aren’t pricing i...
21.12.18 16:22
208
RE: World’s biggest hedge fund says stocks aren’t prici...
21.12.18 16:24
209
US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low
27.12.18 09:31
210
RE: US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low
27.12.18 11:03
211
USA Konjunktur: Sorgen der Märkte schwer nachvollziehba...
29.12.18 11:30
212
Next week we will find out how much damage the turbulen...
30.12.18 15:50
213
Our US equity strategists view the current sell-off, as...
06.1.19 16:47
214
Nowotny: "Mit dem Brexit schwächt sich Europa selbst"
12.1.19 10:58
215
RE: Nowotny:
12.1.19 11:57
216
      RE: Nowotny:
12.1.19 21:21
217
“How much of US recession risk is priced in?”
14.1.19 16:48
218
Global equity markets continued their recovery
20.1.19 11:55
219
2019
21.1.19 10:29
220
Poor Earnings Season May Not Stop a Market Rally, JPMor...
21.1.19 12:54
221
Chilling Davos: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and ...
24.1.19 14:51
222
Draghi glaubt nicht mehr an Zinserhöhung in seiner Amts...
24.1.19 21:22
223
dramatic increase in the supply of risk-free assets
27.1.19 18:48
224
Was macht die Fed
28.1.19 06:23
225
Global equity markets showed resilience this week
28.1.19 06:26
226
      In the US, buyback activity has been very strong
28.1.19 06:39
227
RBI-Chefanalyst erwartet im ersten Halbjahr Börsenaufsc...
28.1.19 11:34
228
Congratulations, Market. The Fed Is Officially at Your ...
30.1.19 21:48
229
Global Economy: Wind Chill Factors Abating
03.2.19 15:15
230
JPMorgan Says 2020 ‘Might Not Be Year to Think About Re...
03.2.19 16:25
231
The global economy is at the crossroads
08.2.19 15:03
232
January risk rally is not a dead cat bounce
10.2.19 22:15
233
Small- and mid caps outperformen
17.2.19 15:34
234
Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
17.2.19 22:33
235
      RE: Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
18.2.19 16:08
236
      RE: Problem mit Durchschnittszinsberechnung
18.2.19 16:26
237
Übersicht über die laufenden Überprüfungsverfahren nach...interessant
18.2.19 06:14
238
Global equity markets ended yet another week in the gre...
18.2.19 16:31
239
Raiffeisen-Experten - Brexit trifft vor allem britische...
21.2.19 07:40
240
Equity markets continued to advance higher this week
24.2.19 14:36
241
Fed-Chef plädiert für "geduldiges" Vorgehen bei Zinserh...
26.2.19 23:34
242
As trade tensions eased, global equity markets continue...
03.3.19 17:23
243
Against our expectations, the ECB adjusted its forward ...
08.3.19 06:19
244
RE: Against our expectations, the ECB adjusted its forw...
08.3.19 06:24
245
Global equities were lower this week on renewed global ...
10.3.19 17:12
246
Spring in Sight?
12.3.19 14:34
247
How to fix European banking … and why it matters
15.3.19 11:07
248
Europe Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside
17.3.19 11:58
249
Our global equity strategists remain constructive for s...
17.3.19 15:33
250
Our Global Equity strategists have argued that for the ...
24.3.19 16:55
251
Current Inversion
27.3.19 11:48
252
RE: Current Inversion
27.3.19 13:45
253
RBI-Ökonomen bleiben trotz Brexit-Chaos vorerst optimis...
29.3.19 14:01
254
use dips as an opportunity to add further
31.3.19 12:58
255
doppelt
31.3.19 12:59
256
"Erst wenn der Arbeitsmarkt leergefegt ist, beginnen Lö...
01.4.19 09:22
257
RE:
01.4.19 16:13
258
Our economists have made upward forecast revisions
07.4.19 13:47
259
Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive on th...
07.4.19 13:54
260
      RE: Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive o...
07.4.19 14:16
261
JPMorgan Says Stock Traders Are Looking at the Wrong Yi...
08.4.19 15:24
262
ATX vs. Europa
12.4.19 12:21
263
Our Global Equity strategists continue to believe that ...
14.4.19 14:59
264
This will probably be the most upbeat note you will rea...
15.4.19 12:22
265
Brezinschek: Börsenaufschwung geht weiter, USA dynamisc...
26.4.19 06:06
266
How high is equity supply?
05.5.19 16:22
267
any weakness remains a buying opportunity
05.5.19 16:39
268
It’s Time to Look More Carefully at “Monetary Policy 3 ...
06.5.19 13:18
269
The growth-policy trade-off remains positive for stocks
13.5.19 10:43
270
Whitney Tilson Taking $10K Bets That Elon Musk Is Full ...
15.5.19 21:25
271
a risk factor I hadn't considered
16.5.19 20:12
272
RE: a risk factor I hadn't considered
17.5.19 10:24
273
Trump Collar
17.5.19 14:16
274
EU profitiert von US vs, China?
17.5.19 14:21
275
      RE: EU profitiert von US vs, China?
17.5.19 15:14
276
Trade war heat is on
17.5.19 15:28
277
Global equity markets showed some stabilisation this we...
19.5.19 17:53
278
Neuwahl - Erste Group sieht vorerst keine Reaktion an F...
20.5.19 15:20
279
Trump’s Huawei Attack Is a Serious Mistake
20.5.19 15:33
280
Global equity markets struggled again this week
02.6.19 18:05
281
USA-Chinainteressant
04.6.19 23:21
282
RE: USA-Chinagut analysiert
05.6.19 10:16
283
      RE: USA-China
05.6.19 10:22
284
Margin of Safety
05.6.19 11:19
285
Draghi hat für jeden was
06.6.19 21:39
286
RE: Draghi hat für jeden was
07.6.19 05:39
287
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
07.6.19 11:28
288
The inversion at the front end of the curve used to be ...
09.6.19 14:54
289
Despite negative headlines on trade
10.6.19 12:18
290
European banks: TLTRO III
11.6.19 15:02
291
Niedrige Zinsen als „neue Normalität“
12.6.19 10:36
292
Blackrock: Österreich bleibt wegen Osteuropa-Nähe attra...
14.6.19 08:08
293
Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive on st...
16.6.19 14:24
294
Fed remains unchanged on rates, pledges to 'sustain the...
19.6.19 20:58
295
Yesterday the FOMC lowered their estimate of the long-r...
20.6.19 16:03
296
Our Global Equity strategists keep their bullish equity...
23.6.19 18:10
297
The global outlook has deteriorated over the last month...
25.6.19 15:34
298
Stimmung der Anleger auf Elfjahrestief
25.6.19 15:59
299
If there is a truce in the trade war
28.6.19 16:34
300
After making fresh new highs last week, global equity m...
30.6.19 18:14
301
Commerzbank Now Predicts ECB to Cut Deposit Rate 20 Bps...
05.7.19 09:09
302
RCB erwartet kräftige Zinssenkungen von EZB und Fed
05.7.19 13:57
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Globale Aktien sind derzeit moderat bewertet
06.7.19 09:27
304
Börsen waren heuer schon auf Rekordkurs - Noch etwas Lu...
08.7.19 13:21
305
Jerome Powells Signale sind auffällig
10.7.19 18:11
306
Fed-Chef Powell für "etwas mehr konjunkturfördernde Gel...
12.7.19 08:57
307
600 Mrd. Unternehmensanleihen mit negativen Zinsen
12.7.19 09:24
308
Global equities are holding near all-time highs
15.7.19 06:21
309
Aktienrückkäufe
17.7.19 16:29
310
Heiko Thieme: „Wir sind näher an einem Abschwung, als ....
17.7.19 18:28
311
Buybacks and the investor
19.7.19 14:09
312
S&P500 made a new all-time high this week
21.7.19 17:39
313
JPM US strategists raised their S&P 500 12-month price ...
21.7.19 17:40
314
Euro Capital Flows
25.7.19 06:13
315
RE: Euro Capital Flowsgut analysiert
25.7.19 06:53
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      RE: Euro Capital Flows
25.7.19 07:45
317
      RE: Euro Capital Flows
25.7.19 08:00
318
RBI: Erwarten eine EZB-Zinssenkung erst im September
26.7.19 05:52
319
25% of all sovereign and corporate bonds outstanding gl...
26.7.19 17:24
320
RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Probleme n...
29.7.19 14:54
321
RE: RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Proble...
29.7.19 16:06
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ex-US 43% mit Negativzinsen
31.7.19 15:50
323
Fed cuts rates for first time since 2008
31.7.19 20:26
324
pick your poison
03.8.19 12:23
325
Don’t Blame the Fed or Trade – It’s the Fundamentals
04.8.19 11:38
326
Our Global equity strategists acknowledge that renewed ...
05.8.19 15:01
327
S&P500 recording the biggest one day negative move sinc...
11.8.19 15:33
328
Kopfschmerzen für die EZB
16.8.19 08:32
329
ECB should launch "significant and impactful" stimulus ...
16.8.19 11:01
330
To assess recession risk focus on global markers
18.8.19 11:51
331
Global equity markets weakened further this week
19.8.19 12:22
332
Kyle Bass is in the headlines
21.8.19 15:40
333
The current level of US tariffs is not high by historic...
29.8.19 13:38
334
Cyclicals and Financials leading on the upside
08.9.19 17:41
335
RBI erwartet Verschärfung der Strafzinsen für Banken au...
11.9.19 11:50
336
The equity rally paused at the start of last week
23.9.19 12:42
337
Equity Strategy: Buy Energy
26.9.19 22:10
338
We need more growth
27.9.19 13:39
339
Recent Equity Price Action
04.10.19 16:33
340
RE: Recent Equity Price Action
04.10.19 16:34
341
JPMorgan, BlackRock Say Investors Too Cautious on Repea...
04.10.19 22:01
342
Just another correction, or the path to Trump's recessi...
05.10.19 12:34
343
ur Global Equity Strategists have had a longstanding pr...
05.10.19 12:37
344
Eurozone is under-owned
12.10.19 17:56
345
deutsche Politik
13.10.19 12:29
346
Our Global Equity Strategy team continues to advocate a...
21.10.19 17:19
347
RBI-Chefanalyst hält IWF-Prognosen für "sehr optimistis...
23.10.19 08:53
348
Our Global Equity strategists believe international sto...
04.11.19 08:15
349
Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerkenswe...
04.11.19 09:25
350
      RE: Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerke...
04.11.19 14:00
351
Increasing risk-on
08.11.19 11:19
352
Renditen steigen
08.11.19 12:23
353
Equity markets continued to grind higher
19.11.19 12:31
354
Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive
25.11.19 16:16
355
Back on track
03.12.19 08:01
356
A slow grind higher
05.12.19 10:44
357
potential for the euro area to surprise on the upside n...
07.12.19 12:27
358
Looking into 2020, our Global Equity strategists believ...
09.12.19 11:50
359
Lowest ECB forecasts on record but a steady start for L...
12.12.19 17:48
360
US & China Trade: Progress But Not a Game Changer
15.12.19 16:37
361
Everything is awesome (when you’re at the peak)
17.12.19 10:56
362
RBI-Experten sehen Konjunktur und Aktienmärkte 2020 pos...
20.12.19 18:02
363
Global stock markets are up $17trn this year
29.12.19 14:39
364
Heute ist um 1415 Schluß
30.12.19 09:24
365
CNN Fear & Greed Index auf "extremer Gier"
03.1.20 21:29
366
Targets for the major indices
06.1.20 15:25
367
Our own view for 2020 is that the euro area economy wil...
10.1.20 05:58
368
"Crash 2020 oder 2021 sehr wahrscheinlich"
10.1.20 16:12
369
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
15.1.20 09:59
370
Ken Fisher: Die Börsen sind ...
15.1.20 19:25
371
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
16.1.20 10:57
372
2020 Outlook – Gaining Speed
16.1.20 13:25
373
the latest health scare could potentially lead to more ...
26.1.20 15:33
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Rentenmärkte brummen
27.1.20 08:58
375
WHO Notfallausschuss
30.1.20 09:48
376
markets are likely to stay under pressure in the short ...
03.2.20 15:20
377
Equities shrugged off the headwind from the coronavirus...
10.2.20 12:43
378
Global equity markets moved to fresh highs this week
17.2.20 11:39
379
Fastest correction in history
28.2.20 06:28
380
Disruption, Dislocations and Delayed Recovery
01.3.20 11:36
381
The US has become the newest focus of the COVID-19 cris...
01.3.20 17:06
382
RE: The US has become the newest focus of the COVID-19 ...
01.3.20 17:08
383
      selling from systematic strategies and option hedgers?
01.3.20 17:13
384
      One key parameter to watch
01.3.20 20:32
385
      RE: One key parameter to watch
02.3.20 05:49
386
Fed wird senken
02.3.20 09:30
387
RE: Diverse Gurus über das aktuelle Börsengeschehen 7
06.3.20 15:34
388
Another ominous anecdote
09.3.20 08:04
389
Max Otte lag nach 2008 wieder richtig?
13.3.20 12:37
390
The Wuhan lockdown lasted 50 days
21.3.20 14:05
391
Was macht Buffett?
22.3.20 16:01
392
      RE: Was macht Buffett?witzig
22.3.20 16:06
393
      RE: Was macht Buffett?
22.3.20 16:10
394
      Jetzt einsteigen, Herr Riße ...?
26.3.20 16:03
395
      RE: Jetzt einsteigen, Herr Riße ...?
26.3.20 16:05
396
      RE: Jetzt einsteigen, Herr Riße ...?
27.3.20 11:41
397
      RE: Was macht Buffett?
27.3.20 11:44
398
The conditions we had set for markets to stabilize
29.3.20 19:24
399
risk-reward for equities remains skewed to the downsid...
29.3.20 19:29
400
Global Asset Allocation
05.4.20 14:16
401
“Aktien alternativlos”
12.4.20 15:53
402
      RE: “Aktien alternativlos”
12.4.20 19:51
403
COVID-19: Looking Beyond the Peak
13.4.20 09:45
404
Goldman Says U.S. Stocks Have Likely Bottomed on Policy...
13.4.20 12:13
405
Jens Ehrhardt: " ... die Saat für eine Superrally"
14.4.20 07:55
406
      Bernecker: Dax wird sich schnell erholen
18.4.20 13:15
407
In the US, the next three weeks will be informative as ...
19.4.20 19:46
408
Ken Fisher: Selbst bei einer Rezession ...
08.5.20 11:54
409
      Ray Dalio: Wirtschaftsabschwung "relativ kurz"
08.5.20 12:00
410
      Dirk Müller: 70:30
09.5.20 18:10
411
      "Wir haben die Tiefs im März gesehen"
12.5.20 09:58
412
      RE:
12.5.20 10:16
413
      RE:
12.5.20 10:18
414
      RE:
12.5.20 10:34
415
      RE: "Wir haben die Tiefs im März gesehen"
12.5.20 11:54
416
      This is the most expensive time to buy stocks in 20 yea...
13.5.20 14:42
417
      Max Otte: Ich bin voll investiert
13.5.20 20:24
418
      Jim Rogers: Das Schlimmste kommt noch
14.5.20 18:22
419
      RE: Jim Rogers: Das Schlimmste kommt nochgut analysiert
15.5.20 05:05
420
      RE: Jim Rogers: Das Schlimmste kommt noch
15.5.20 11:03
421
Ray Dalio: We must reform capitalism, not abandon it
16.5.20 12:58
422
RE: Ray Dalio
19.5.20 15:01
423
      Robert Halver: Darum bleiben Aktien ein MUSS
20.5.20 13:00
424
      Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
26.5.20 14:20
425
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
27.5.20 03:12
426
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
27.5.20 16:41
427
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
27.5.20 19:57
428
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
27.5.20 22:30
429
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
27.5.20 22:39
430
      „Dax könnte 2021 die 16000er-Marke erreichen“interessant
29.5.20 19:29
431
      Jeremy Grantham Sounds Bearish ...
06.6.20 13:28
432
      RE: Kevin O'Leary says he's bullish ...
13.6.20 13:45
433
      Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors Wager...interessant
15.6.20 08:19
434
      RE: Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors W...
15.6.20 08:36
435
      RE: Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors W...
15.6.20 08:48
436
      RE: Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors W...
15.6.20 08:52
437
      Hertz Warns Stock Buyers Will Need Miracle to Avoid Wip...
15.6.20 16:21
438
      RE: Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors W...
15.6.20 12:10
439
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Drops Caution on Stocks, Says Buy ...
13.6.20 13:00
440
Outstanding Shortsinteressant
16.6.20 21:22
441
Privatanleger schlagen Finanzprofisinteressant
17.6.20 02:30
442
TLTRO Liquidity Boost
18.6.20 16:19
443
US Election: The Art of the Plausible
21.6.20 14:02
444
$16tr of additional debt this yearinteressant
03.7.20 21:40
445
RE: $16tr of additional debt this year
04.7.20 02:08
446
Was wenn Biden gewinnt?gut analysiert
06.7.20 13:29
447
Many investors did not participate in the equity rally
08.7.20 18:08
448
Banken sind attraktiv
15.8.20 12:33
449
market leadership will remain Growth and Defensives
17.8.20 15:44
450
The Q2 reporting season is getting to its final stages
17.8.20 15:48
451
Stressed About U.S. Stocks, Investors Are Betting Big o...
22.8.20 19:47
452
MARKETS The S&P 500′s return to a record doesn’t ...interessantinteressant
22.8.20 20:46
453
The significant reduction in previously extreme long po...interessant
07.9.20 09:01
454
RE: The significant reduction in previously extreme lon...
07.9.20 15:37
455
First increase in individual equities’ short base since...
19.9.20 08:03
456
Experten plädieren für europäische Aktien
21.9.20 08:48
457
RE: Experten plädieren für europäische Aktien
22.9.20 12:23
458
      RE: Experten plädieren für europäische Aktien
29.9.20 12:06
459
      Ken Fisher: Vergessen Sie die hohen KGVinteressant
29.9.20 12:30
460
Global equity markets continued to retreat last week
28.9.20 21:05
461
retail-driven small option traders
30.9.20 16:39
462
Only 10 stocks divide the US and Europe
01.10.20 15:36
463
US initial jobless claims down to 837,000
01.10.20 18:06
464
      Tech stocks' time in the spotlight is over
01.10.20 23:19
465
Global equity markets spent another week in a consolida...
03.10.20 17:50
466
A Clear-Cut Biden Win Is Emerging as a Bull Case for St...
05.10.20 19:40
467
A blue wave of Democrats come November may be good for ...
06.10.20 18:13
468
Trump v Biden
07.10.20 16:19
469
Global Asset Allocation - Increasing equity OW
08.10.20 17:51
470
The impact from a potential US capital gains tax rate i...
10.10.20 11:36
471
USA: The biggest polling shock in history?
14.10.20 16:01
472
RE: USA: The biggest polling shock in history?
14.10.20 16:20
473
      RE: USA: The biggest polling shock in history?
14.10.20 17:50
474
      RE: USA: The biggest polling shock in history?
14.10.20 18:59
475
Milliardär Gundlach sagt harte Zeit voraus
19.10.20 10:50
476
Our Global Equity strategists have argued in recent wee...
26.10.20 10:47
477
‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome for...
31.10.20 10:34
478
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 14:09
479
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 15:05
480
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...interessant
01.11.20 16:28
481
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 16:39
482
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 16:47
483
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 17:17
484
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 17:41
485
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
01.11.20 18:46
486
RE: ‘orderly’ Trump victory the most favorable outcome...
02.11.20 02:23
487
Post US election the equity bull market should resume
02.11.20 16:33
488
RE: Post US election the equity bull market should resu...
02.11.20 21:27
489
"Joe Biden ist eine gute Nachricht für die Märkte"
08.11.20 20:39
490
The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops f...
09.11.20 23:01
491
RE: The equity market is facing one of the best backdro...
10.11.20 07:37
492
Add risk on vaccine arrival
13.11.20 09:29
493
Don't underestimate Europe - triple the size of the Mar...
13.11.20 13:05
494
Our Global equity strategists reiterated their Value up...
14.11.20 11:07
495
Can the Rally Continue?
19.11.20 20:35
496
We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the near...interessant
22.11.20 12:22
497
RE: We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the ...
22.11.20 12:26
498
RE: We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the ...
22.11.20 13:17
499
The 60/40 Portfolio Is Muzzling Critics With Another Bi...
22.11.20 21:05
500
European equities look well positioned for 2021
24.11.20 15:33
501
Outrageous Predictions
09.12.20 14:19
502
a positive feedback loop
09.12.20 21:47
503
Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for susta...
10.12.20 13:17
504
Byron Wien Says S&P 500 Will Tumble Before Rallying to ...
05.1.21 07:35
505

... vor baldigem Börsencrash.

Jeremy Grantham, Mitgründer und Chefstratege der Investmentfirma GMO (Grantham, May & van Otterloo), sagte bereits die Börsencrashs im Jahr 2000 und 2008 voraus ...

weiter: http://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/Investorenlegende-warnt-Anleger-vor-baldigem-Bo ersencrash-1012656691

  

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>... vor baldigem Börsencrash.
>
>Jeremy Grantham, Mitgründer und Chefstratege der
>Investmentfirma GMO (Grantham, May & van Otterloo), sagte
>bereits die Börsencrashs im Jahr 2000 und 2008 voraus ...
>
>weiter:
>http://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/Investorenlegende-warnt-Anleger-vor-baldigem-Bo ersencrash-1012656691

mMn prophezeien zu viele den Crash -> als wird er (noch) nicht so bald kommen - aber wer weiß. Statistisch gesehen wäre er überfällig

  

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>mMn prophezeien zu viele den Crash -> als wird er (noch)
>nicht so bald kommen - aber wer weiß. Statistisch gesehen wäre
>er überfällig

Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern können mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn die führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die Bewertungen so abgehoben sind. Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist der asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie Wolkenkratzer errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä). Da kann böse was platzen.

  

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>Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern können
>mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn die
>führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die
>Bewertungen so abgehoben sind. Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist der
>asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie Wolkenkratzer
>errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung
>vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä). Da
>kann böse was platzen.

Quelle? Dergleichen habe ich noch nirgends gelesen?

  

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>Ein Risiko das ich sehe ist
>der
>>asiatische Immobilienmarkt. Da werden Ende nie
>Wolkenkratzer
>>errichtet und wie man hört teilweise gefakte Vermietung
>>vorgegaukelt (inkl. Lichtsteuerung, Plastikpflanzen uä).
>Da
>>kann böse was platzen.
>
>Quelle? Dergleichen habe ich noch nirgends gelesen?

Projektleiter einer ausführenden Firma für derartige Lösungen für die Haustechnik...

  

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>
>>Solange die Firmen ebenso steigende Gewinne abliefern
>können
>>mache ich mir keine Sorgen. Das Problem beginnt erst wenn
>die
>>führenden Firmen nicht mehr liefern können weil die

Die Zeitleiste ist aber idR eine andere.

Zuerst fällt der Markt und die Bad News kommen später.

  

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>Die Zeitleiste ist aber idR eine andere.
>
>Zuerst fällt der Markt und die Bad News kommen später.


Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad News ausbleiben.

  

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>Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad News
>ausbleiben.

War da irgendwas nach Börsenschluß? Der VIX hat sich in der letzten Stunde ungefähr verdoppelt.

  

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Warum? Es war ein regelrecht frenetischer Start in die neue Woche. Bei fast nicht existentem Nachrichtenflow wurden die Märkte während einer eher unbedeutenden Rede von Trump in Ohio so dermaßen schnell abverkauft, dass die Übertragung praktisch auf allen Kanälen abgebrochen wurde, um die entsprechenden Charts einzublenden. Der Dow Jones verlor Intraday über 1.500 Punkte und stellte damit einen neuen Rekord für die Geschichtsbücher auf. Zwar versuchten sich die Märkte an einem zunächst erfolgreichen Rebound, kamen aber gegen Schluss wieder unter massiven Druck, der auch im nachbörslichen Handel zunächst abflauen wollte. Zur Minute steht der S&P 500-Future 1,15 % im Minus, der Nikkei-Future verliert aktuell fast acht Prozent. Weitere herausragender Akteure waren am Montag der VIX, welcher sich teilweise mehr als verdoppelte, und die Rendite für 10-jährigen Anleihen, die heute über 14 Punkte verlieren. Ein eindeutiger Auslöser für den Crash lässt sich nicht lokalisieren, aber auf den massiv im Risiko stehenden Vola-Trade (implizit und explizit) wurde in den letzten Tagen immer wieder hingewiesen.
netter tag wird das morgen keiner!

  

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War nur eine Frage der Zeit, wenn man sich anschaut, wie die Aktien die letzten Wochen gelaufen sind.

Schwer zu sagen, ob es das schon war oder ob es nochmal runtergeht. Nach einem so starken Bullenlauf könnte der Abverkauf schon noch länger dauern, ich warte daher noch mit der Einkaufstour.

  

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>>Die Amis fallen ja ganz ordentlich heute. Mögen die Bad
>News
>>ausbleiben.
>
>War da irgendwas nach Börsenschluß? Der VIX hat sich in der
>letzten Stunde ungefähr verdoppelt.

Nein da war nix. Ich glaub da haben sich nur ein paar Amis ein wenig angeschissen weil sie mal Kurs/Buchwert, KGV nachgerechnet haben und dabei die steigende Inflation gesehen haben, begleitet von der Drohung der ECB die Zinsen zu erhöhen.

Dabei sollte die Steuersenkungen zumindest dieses und nächstes Quartal zu überproportionalem Gewinnwachstum führen. Wenn keiner eine Bombe wirft, wird der Großteil der Unternehmen auch weiter solide Zahlen liefern.

  

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Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?

Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus, während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.

Ist jetzt der ETF falsch gepreist (Abgabedruck), oder haben die irgendwie ihr Vermögen in den Sand gesetzt?


*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF


PS: Ich beobachte nicht nur, ich habe in der letzten Stunde massiv gekauft

  

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>Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?
>
>Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus,
>während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte
>sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.
>

ISIN?

  

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>ISIN?
>
>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>
>
>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$ gefallen.
>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.

Er macht eh genau was er soll:

Does not track the performance of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and can be expected to perform very differently from the VIX.

correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.



  

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>correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of
>the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.

Ich hätte das so verstanden, daß sich der ETF bei einer Verdopplung des VIX halbieren würde.

Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg 100% an Wert verliert?

  

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>>correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance
>of
>>the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.
>
>Ich hätte das so verstanden, daß sich der ETF bei einer
>Verdopplung des VIX halbieren würde.
>
>Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg 100%
>an Wert verliert?


Ich hätte das als letzteres verstanden.

  

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>>Heißt das in Wirklichkeit, daß er bei einem 100%-Anstieg
>100%
>>an Wert verliert?
>
>
>Ich hätte das als letzteres verstanden.


Das ist dann natürlich nicht ideal. Bisher war das immer egal, weil ob das Ding bei einer 10%-Bewegung sich um 9% oder um 11% bewegt, fällt nicht weiter auf. Aber ob 50% oder 100% Verlust, das ist nicht ganz wurscht.

  

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>>ISIN?
>>
>>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>>
>>
>>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$ gefallen.
>>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.
>
>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummet s-80-percent.html
>

Eine gute grundlegende Erklärung der Funktionsweise
https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/08/how-does-svxy-work/

Wenn man sich den Newsflow zu den inversen VIX Produkten ansieht, dann dürfte es einige erwischt haben

  

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Thanks for pointing out the fine print on page of 197 of the XIV prospectus – the inverse short-VIX ETN that has zeroed so many holders: “The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero. If you hold your ETNs as a long term investment, it is likely you will lose all or a substantial portion of your investment." So I guess that’s CS’s litigation worries covered.


>>>ISIN?
>>>
>>>http://www.proshares.com/funds/svxy_performance_and_quote.html
>>>
>>>
>>>Im regulären Handel sind sie heute auf ca. 70$
>gefallen.
>>>Aktuell nachbörslich gibt es sie aber unter 20$.
>>
>>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummet s-80-percent.html
>>
>
>Eine gute grundlegende Erklärung der Funktionsweise
>https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/08/how-does-svxy-work/
>
>Wenn man sich den Newsflow zu den inversen VIX Produkten
>ansieht, dann dürfte es einige erwischt haben



  

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Diese Meldung hatte es durchaus in sich: Die Credit Suisse nutzt einen Passus in den Emissionsbedingungen und zieht ein Volatilitätsproddukt vom Markt zurück - hier die Mitteilung.


Dabei handelt es sich um den Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (ISIN US22542D7957), den die Bank 2010 aufgelegt hatte und an dem sie etwa ein Drittel hält. Wer ein solches Produkt besitzt wettet darauf, dass die Volatilität im Volatilitätsindex VIX der CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) auf den S&P-500-Index niedrig bleibt. Der VIX misst genau diese Volatilität - und am letzten Montagabend stieg dieser so stark wie noch nie. Schlecht für die Besitzer dieses Wertpapiers, deren Wert sich mit einem Minus von über 90 Prozent nahezu in Luft auflöste. Ähnlich erging es dem ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) (US74347W6277), der mit der steigenden Volatilität mehr als 80 Prozent verlor.

Nun hat die CS entschieden, das verlustträchtige Papier vorzeitig zurückzukaufen, der Handel soll per 20. Februar eingestellt werden - Anleger erhalten eine entsprechende Barvergütung und die Credit Suisse kündigt an, keine weiteren des XIV-ETNs mehr zu emittieren.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/die-hohe-volatilitaet-fordert-ihre-opfer-269 8

  

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>Können VIX-ETFs komplett aus dem Ruder laufen?
>
>Ich beobachte da einen ETF*, der ist jetzt 80% im Minus,
>während sich der VIX nur verdoppelt hat. Für 80% Minus hätte
>sich der VIX aber eigentlich verfünffachen müssen.
>
>Ist jetzt der ETF falsch gepreist (Abgabedruck), oder haben
>die irgendwie ihr Vermögen in den Sand gesetzt?
>
>
>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF

Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

  

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>>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF
>
>Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
>https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

Handel jetzt wieder aufgenommen. Wider Erwarten kein Totalschaden, aber ziemlich zerbröselt; -90% gegenüber Freitag, Kurs knapp über 11.

  

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>>>*Pro Shares Short VIX Short Time Futures ETF
>>
>>Ist jetzt vom Handel ausgesetzt, "News pending"
>>https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts
>
>Handel jetzt wieder aufgenommen. Wider Erwarten kein
>Totalschaden, aber ziemlich zerbröselt; -90% gegenüber
>Freitag, Kurs knapp über 11.

Ich denke, dass diese VIX Geschichte ein wesentlicher Treiber für die Schwankungen der letzten Tage war.

Bin urlaubsbedingt nur oberflächlich dabei, aber was aufgefallen ist:

- Erschreckend wie schnell die Liq. weg war, und dies bei einem mittelmäßigen Rums. Meilenweite Spreads.

- Wie immer wurden die Beta Stocks zuerst abverkauft

- Denke nicht, dass dies schon die Trendwende war. Aber auffallend ist, dass die "Profis" auf allen Kanälen die "buy the dip" Parole ausgeben.

D.h. für mich den Trend konservativ umzuschichten, werde ich fortsetzten. Meine 3 Käufe von heute werde ich entsprechend bald wieder abstoßen.

  

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1) The significant re-pricing of inflation expectations over the past month shows that the market has been worrying more and more about an overheating of the economy. That is why rates have moved higher. And these fears culminated on Friday with wage inflation hitting a post-crisis high. And it is the threat of higher inflation and higher rates that is worrying the stock market because higher wages means lower profit margins and higher inflation means faster rate hikes from the Fed as the FOMC tries to slow down the economy and ultimately the revenue growth of S&P500 companies.

2) The market does not expect the ongoing stock market correction will have any meaningful negative impact on the real economy; if the market expected the correction to trigger a recession, then inflation expectations would also have crashed yesterday.

Deutsche Bank

  

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A healthy pullback


After a stellar 2017 and an even stronger January, risk assets have undergone a sharp pullback in the last week. Initially triggered by higher rates as markets repriced inflation expectations higher, the episode evolved into a technical spout of volatility exacerbated by programmatic strategies.

The pullback is healthy, after a highly unusual stretch of market tranquility. For instance, the S&P 500 had not had a 3% pullback in over 300 trading days; market positioning had become stretched. However, the moves now appear overdone. We are now well past the typical 3-5% pullback, and the sell-off has gone beyond that during 2013’s Taper Tantrum which was triggered by a much sharper rise in rates.

Fundamentals remain supportive of risk assets. The robust, broad-based global expansion continues and inflation will at last accelerate in 2018. We expect these trends to evolve steadily enough for central banks to tighten monetary policy gradually as planned. Strong growth and rising but not high rates should continue to support corporate earnings and equity valuations even as bond yields steadily rise.

Still, we expect market turbulence to return this year. Pullbacks and volatility will become more common as investors adjust to rising interest rates and capital is allocated out of risk assets and into higher-yielding fixed income. More volatility should not derail the underlying economic expansion or fundamentally dent risk assets, but it will make markets more bumpy and less predictable.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Fed implications of the employment report

What is important to understand is that the higher wage number is not just a one-off event. Instead, it is a continuation of the trends we have seen in recent years both in employer labor costs and take-home pay for workers.

An overheating labor market is not good news for the Fed. With wages trending higher, the FOMC needs to raise rates further to cool down the economy and cool down companies’ hiring and capex plans and ultimately revenue growth. And central banks, including the Fed, have a bad history of being able to gradually cool down the economy. Instead of a soft landing, it almost always results in a hard landing, i.e. a recession. For now, rates will go up by a lot more before the tightening in financial conditions ultimately results in a recession and lower rates, most likely in 2020.

Deutsche Bank

  

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We believe that the fundamental drivers of the equity market uptrend are still intact for the next 1-2 months, which is the investment horizon of our model portfolio. These drivers are underpinned by still low real yields, robust global growth, profit margin expansion due to US tax reform and increased US share buyback activity due to repatriation. Therefore, with an investment horizon of 1-2 months, we see the recent 7% dip in global equities as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to reduce equity risk in our portfolio.

JPMorgan

  

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Wienerberger - Der ideale Übernahmekandidat


Im Jänner 2018 wurde der Raiffeisen-Europa-Aktien zum Fonds des Monats gekürt. Fondsmanager Herbert Perus stellt sich Fragen zu Bewertungs- und Timing-Aspekten beim Value-Investing und zum österreichischen Aktienmarkt.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/wienerberger-der-ideale-uebernahmekandidat-2 440


  

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Our analysis suggests that both CTAs and Risk Parity funds have been at the core of the recent correction. Risk Parity funds have underperformed a hypothetical benchmark by 3.7% since the start of the equity market correction, an even bigger underperformance than that seen during the Fed 2013 taper tantrum. CTAs lost 6.9% in four days from Feb 1st to Feb 7th. Pure trend following CTAs did even worse, losing 9.2% during these four days. These negative 4-day returns are unprecedented, pointing to severe position unwinding. This severe CTA unwinding is consistent with the almost universal collapse of the open interest of futures contracts over the past week, with the exception of the 10y UST futures contract. In our mind, the position unwinding from both CTAs and Risk Parity funds has been so severe that any further position unwinding by these investors should be limited from here, especially if stop losses have been triggered already.This, combined with the low equity exposures of Discretionary Macro and Equity Long/Short hedge funds, leaves retail investors as the main residual risk for equity markets going forward. US equity ETFs, which have been at the epicenter of the fund outflows over the past week, lost $25bn so far. This means that more than half of the $40bn that had entered US equity ETFs in January has been withdrawn already. So again, the picture we are getting in the US equity ETF space is one of advanced rather than early stage de-risking.Momentum retreats from extremes in equities, FX and commodities, but not rates.Retail investors are pouring money again into short VIX ETFs undeterred by recent VIX product turmoil.

JPMorgan

  

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Nowotny begrüßt "Aufwecksignal" an den Börsen
Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anheben, sagt OeNB-Gouverneur Ewald Nowotny.

Anders als in den USA werde es in Europa noch etwas dauern, bis der Leitzins wieder angehoben werde, so Nowotny, der auch Mitglied des EZB-Rates ist. Er schloss aus, dass die Leitzinsen in Europa noch heuer angehoben werden. Es fehle noch an der passenden Inflationsrate von rund zwei Prozent in der Eurozone. Diese liegt bei 1,4 Prozent. „Daher ist die EZB derzeit noch auf der vorsichtigen Seite“, sagte der OeNB-Gouverneur. Bei Zinsen von länger laufenden Staatsanleihen sehe man aber bereits jetzt, dass die Zinsen anziehen würden.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5369943/Nowotny-begruesst-Aufwecksignal-a n-den-Boersen

  

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These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage

A slice of quantitative easing that's completely unsuited for public consumption.

With the economic recovery well under way in Europe the European Central Bank has cut its government bond purchases by two-thirds. Fair enough. However, it is not reining in its involvement in company debt. The securities now comprise about 20 percent of monthly purchases, up from 7 percent at the start of the program in mid-2016. The total amount could top 200 billion euros ($244 billion) before quantitative easing ends.

If it had any self-knowledge the ECB should be aware of the problems it's creating. The fact that, by its purchases, it has soaked up all the liquidity in the secondary market and has had to turn to the primary market should be a warning sign.

Elephant Stomp

The ECB's corporate QE buying has helped halve funding costs for high-yield borrowers

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-12/these-bonds-should-make-ecb-hawks-ap oplectic-with-rage

  

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Morgan Stanley Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says Buy Now

The Morgan Stanley strategist who predicted volatility would ramp up in 2018 says the damage has been done and it’s time to buy stocks.

Michael Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said the “volatility shock” that hit equity markets last week has pushed valuations down to attractive levels, with the S&P 500 Index trading at just 16 times forward 12-month earnings per share.

This is a “level we believe is too cheap” given that 10-year Treasury yields remain below 3 percent, Wilson said in a note to clients Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicte d-volatility-says-buy-now


  

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Financial markets are all about stories. Over the past six weeks, the enormous US fiscal expansion has created two new stories, which both argue for higher US rates. First, doing a fiscal expansion when the unemployment rate is very low at 4.1% runs the risk of overheating the economy and thereby creating wage inflation and consumer price inflation. Second, unfinanced tax cuts mean more Treasury issuance, which now also includes last Friday’s increase in budget caps – the so-called 2018 Budget Act – which will add another $300bn to the deficit.

So the question for investors is no longer simply “When will we see inflation in the United States?”. The additional question is “With a doubling in the amount of Treasuries coming to the market over the coming 18 months, who will buy US government debt, in particular in a situation where almost 50% of Treasuries are held by foreigners who see a falling dollar and the ECB ending QE?”.

The bottom line is that the upside risks to US rates are significant as a result of higher US inflation and likely weaker demand for US Treasuries.

Deutsche Bank

  

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All the President's deficits

• Most countries try to avoid material fiscal easing when the economy is near full employment, but the US has just done so twice in two months. JPM has upgraded its US growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019; lowered its unemployment rate target to a 50-yr low (3.2% in 2019); and raised its deficit projection to the highest in 50 years (5.4%) outside of the Global Financial Crisis. Our economist’s call for four Fed hikes in 2018 and 2019 is unchanged.
• Markets seem only slightly unnerved by US fiscal policy. Treasury yields and inflation breakevens have been trending higher since December, but these moves might have occurred anyway due to the economy’s momentum entering 2018 and the tightening of oil markets.
• Evidence of fiscal anxiety is more circumstantial and comes in the form of the dollar’s decoupling from cross-country rate differentials, gold’s decoupling from US real interest rates and a reversal of the usually negative stock/bond price correlation.

JPMorgan

  

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Schwere Zeiten für Bonds im Kommen

Die Rendite von 10jährigen US-Treasuries wird in den kommenden sechs Monaten auf 3,5 Prozent steigen, ist Goldman Sachs AM überzeugt - und hält das für keine sehr mutige Prognose.

Und rechnet heuer mit vier Zinserhöhungen - gegenüber dem Marktkonsens von drei. Aktuell rentieren die Anleihen bei 2,82 Prozent. Bei einer Duration von aktuell 8,7 würde das einem Kursverlust von 5,8 Prozent entsprechen - bei einem Zinskupon von 2,75 Prozent.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/schwere-zeiten-fuer-bonds-im-kommen-2992

  

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Ray Dalio's Short-Bet Puzzle Is Missing Some Pieces

Bridgewater could be overlooking the full picture if it's relying solely on European economic data.

Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio is famously enigmatic, but his latest wager may be the most puzzling yet.


Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that the fund Dalio founded, Bridgewater Associates, has made a $22 billion bet that many of Europe's biggest companies in the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 Index are poised to decline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-16/ray-dalio-s-short-puzzle-for-bridgew ater-is-missing-some-pieces

  

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Add Stock Buybacks to the Causes of the Market Downturn

There's a new reason to dislike stock buybacks: They contributed to last week's market downturn.

Some market watchers are adding corporate share repurchases to the list of reasons for last week's turmoil, which already included rising interest rates, higher inflation, growing government debt, volatility-linked investment funds and Washington instability. More significantly, those pointing the finger at buybacks say continued corporate stock purchases -- which, unlike some of those volatility funds, survived the brief market downturn -- will make the next one far worse.

Here's the logic: Companies over the past decade or so have significantly increased buybacks to the point where they are now collectively the largest single buyer of stocks. Some have called the market self-cannibalizing. Equity shrink is the nicer way to say that.

Corporations are not particularly price sensitive -- buybacks tend to rise with the market -- but they do try over short periods to buy at the lowest average price. So in a long bull market, like the one we are in now, corporations tend to step in to buy whenever there is a dip, which is what happened last week. Goldman Sachs, for one, said that its unit that executes share buybacks received a surge of orders last week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-16/add-stock-buybacks-to-the-causes-of- the-market-downturn

  

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Goldman Sees U.S. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit Rise

“Federal fiscal policy is entering uncharted territory,” Goldman analysts including Alec Phillips in Washington wrote in a Feb. 18 note to clients. “In the past, as the economy strengthens and the debt burden increases, Congress has responded by raising taxes and cutting spending. This time around, the opposite has occurred.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/goldman-sees-u-s-interest-cost-surge-o n-rising-yields-deficit

  

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We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each in 2018 and 2019, and that it will upgrade its rate guidance at Powell’s first FOMC press conference as Chair on March 21st, given inflation’s recent momentum. Note that this Fed view isn't based on an aggressive inflation forecast. Our economists see core PCE only reaching 2% this year and 2.3% in 2019. The view simply recognizes the Fed’s reaction function because it is serious about preventing a material overshoot of its target.

JPMorgan

  

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The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages with 74% and 97% of companies having reported in US and Japan respectively, and 50% in Europe. Q4 EPS is up 15-17% year-on-year in all three regions, the best since Q1 2017. Sales growth is in line with the previous quarters, at around 8%, which implies that profit margins expanded further in Q4. 80% of SPX companies beat earnings estimates, with EPS up +15%. 77% of the companies beat on top line, with sales up 8%. 54% of SXXP companies beat EPS estimates, delivering EPS growth of +17%. Similar to the US, the strength in earnings mainly comes from Cyclicals and Financials, while results are softer for Defensives.

JPMorgan

  

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Morgan Stanley Says Stock Slide Was Appetizer for Real Deal

The U.S. stock market only had a taste of the potential damage from higher bond yields earlier this year, with the biggest test yet to come, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Appetizer, not the main course,” is how the bank’s strategists led by London-based Andrew Sheets described the correction of late January to early February. Although higher bond yields proved tough for equity investors to digest, the key metric of inflation-adjusted yields didn’t break out of their range for the past five years, they said in a note Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/morgan-stanley-says-stock-slide-was-ju st-appetizer-for-real-deal

  

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BlackRock Says Buy U.S. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges Earnings

BlackRock Inc. turned bullish on U.S. stocks as the world’s largest money manager says impending fiscal stimulus will boost already strong momentum for earnings growth.

Valuations are now slightly more attractive after the recent market declines, helping inform its decision to raise U.S. equities to overweight from neutral, according to global chief investment strategist Richard Turnill at BlackRock, which oversees about $6 trillion in assets.

“Economic strength was already changing the tone of earnings momentum but U.S. tax cuts and government spending plans lit a fire under the trend,” he wrote in a note. “Upward revisions are solid globally, but the U.S. strength is unmatched.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/blackrock-says-buy-u-s-stocks-as-tax-p lan-supercharges-earnings

  

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U.S. economic data right now is as 'good as it gets', Goldman Sachs says

The recent run of U.S. economic data is likely as good as it gets, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Writing in a note to clients on Thursday about the firm’s theme that we’re seeing “peak sentiment” in the U.S. economy, strategists James Weldon and Charles Himmelberg note that while sentiment remains near post-election highs, the risk that this trend ends is rising.

“Last year we cautioned that the downside risks to ‘peak sentiment’ were riding on macro data and policy,” Weldon and Himmelberg write.

“One year on, sentiment is higher, but now the macro data are likely ‘as good as it gets’ and the administration has already passed an unprecedented amount of late-cycle fiscal stimulus. In our base case, we would expect this sentiment plateau to extend further, but the risks to investor sentiment appear more skewed to the downside than they were a year ago.”

A divergence between the hopes and realities of economic growth, in other words, will not hold over the long term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-s-economic-data-right-now-good-gets-goldman-sachs-says-1 54035530.html

  

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The US economics team published an update to DB’s analysis that looks at the parallels between the current period and the 1960s in the US. Similar to today, inflation was subdued for a protracted period during the first half of the 1960s even as the unemployment rate fell sharply. Inflation then jumped in 1966. Recent developments – most importantly a replay of the 1960s fiscal expansion – have increased the similarities with the 1960s episode. Their updated analysis suggests that while we are unlikely to see a spike in inflation as large as the 1960s, the risks around DB’s inflation view are likely titled to the upside. As such, we would not downplay the possibility that core inflation hits 2.5% or above in the coming years, exceeding the last cycle’s peak and rising to the highest level since the early 1990s.

Deutsche Bank

  

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QE ending

This is the battle in financial markets at the moment. The economic and earnings data are still strong pointing to higher Treasury yields, narrow credit spreads, and higher equities. But ending easy money and more signs of inflation should raise Treasury yields, widen IG credit spreads, lower equities, and boost VIX. So far, stocks and credit are trading well, but with peak QE, peak fiscal boost, and peak disinflation we are priced to perfection, in particular as Treasury yields continue to rise on the back of higher US inflation and the unsustainable US fiscal situation. Tensions are building, including in US Treasury auctions, Libor-OIS, and repo markets, and we will have a problem once the grind higher in Treasury yields begins to have a negative impact on consumer spending and capex. Put differently, we better not have a slowdown in the economic data because the conclusion from yesterday’s conference is that once the next recession comes central banks will be out of ammunition, and in that situation, we will go back to the zero lower bound with lower long rates, wider IG credit spreads, lower equities, and higher VIX.

Deutsche Bank  

  

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Two weeks ago, volatility hit markets, with the Dow dropping 1,000 points in a single day, twice. Stock prices have climbed back a bit. But some Wall Street veterans warn that there could be more volatility ahead.

Steve Schwarzman, the CEO of Blackstone (BX), isn’t all that concerned about the recent market moves because he believes the market has been vulnerable to corrections.

“If the developed world’s economies are going up 2.5% to 3% a year, that’s not that much. It’s not terrible, but you know it’s what it is. And you have performance in January of the equity markets up around 7%, something like that,” Schwarzman told Yahoo Finance. ” If you had that same performance for twelve months at roughly 7%, I mean you’re you’ve got 80% performance in a year in an economy growing 2.5% to 3% in the developed world does that make any sense? No.”

In other words, the stock market look like it’s gotten way ahead of the economy. And so, you can expect some down moves along the way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/steve-schwarzman-stock-markets-performance-doesnt-make-sen se-look-economy-191423240.html

  

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Equities: Near-term activity data may be peaking, but earnings growth hasn’t and US stock buybacks are running at a record pace.

JPMorgan

  

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Has the marginal equity buyer gone?


• The erratic behavior of retail investors this past week and the spreading of equity ETF outflows out to non-US equities casts doubt on the idea that retail investors will serve as the marginal buyer of equities in the current conjuncture - especially after buying an unprecedented $100bn of equity ETFs in only one month during January.
• The potential withdrawal of retail investors as the marginal buyer of equities could create clear downside risk for equity markets for the near term, especially if one takes into account the deterioration in equity market liquidity.
• This is not only because institutional investors appear to be unwilling to become the marginal buyer against a backdrop of elevated volatility, low market liquidity and disappointing economic releases.
• But also because the other big incremental buyer of equities we envisage for this year, i.e. share buybacks, might take some time to materialize.

JPMorgan

  

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We estimate that losses on the Steinhoff bond that the ECB/Eurosystem sold, after it plunged by half, were just over 0.05% of its corporate holdings and have therefore been comfortably absorbed by the returns on the overall CSPP portfolio. Given diversification and portfolio approach to returns, this event as expected did not deter the ECB from continuing to make substantial purchases of corporate bonds. As we have argued in the past, although it is not the ECB's goal, buying corporate rather than sovereign bonds is highly likely to increase the P&L of the QE.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Our macro views remain constructive: growth momentum is still robust and above-trend (despite some moderation), inflation is normalizing but unlikely to see a dramatic uptick, and the Fed will continue to tighten policy but remain accommodative. Without a clear threat yet to end this cycle, our asset allocation remains pro-cyclical and OW equities vs broad fixed income.

Narrative of recent selloff: imminent concerns about inflation, rates, trade wars, and a growth downshift are overblown, in our view. Although we recognize long-term risks stemming from market illiquidity and volatility, we believe that the equity OW should be underpinned near-term by strong corporate and macro fundamentals, stabilizations of long-dated UST yields, and increased inflows into equities. Positioning and valuation also look more attractive following the equities technical sell-off in early February.

Fiscal deficits, any further upside inflation surprises, and market repricing of Fed expectations continue to be a downside risk for fixed income. However, given short duration positioning is still extreme and significant repricing has taken place, we stay small UW in bonds. We are neutral on credit spreads as they remain supported by solid credit fundamentals and are not yet threatened by a restrictive Fed due to high leverage.

JPMorgan

  

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The upshot of our economic analysis is that the tariff measures announced thus far are unlikely to have a material impact on our global macro outlook, even if the affected countries would take proportional counter-measures in response. The range of estimates we come up with falls well within the margin of error for global growth forecasts. This does not rule out that the impact might be felt more acutely in the directly and indirectly affected sectors and in countries that are heavily specialised in the affected sectors. And while we clearly see a risk of a regime shift, there are a number of reasons why we are not overly worried about the macro impact at this stage.

First, thus far only a limited range of products have been subjected to protectionist measures. The products covered in the report drafted by the US Department of Commerce under Section 232 account of 2% of US imports (or 0.2% of US GDP). Globally, these products have a slightly more prominent role and trade also accounts for a larger part of economic activity than in the US. We would estimate the share to be roughly 0.9% of global GDP. So, even if you assume that demand drops materially due to the tariffs, it is difficult to get an impact of more than 0.3pp of GDP. As steel and aluminium are intermediate products, there will likely be knock-on effects along the production chain. In the case of Germany, a heavy user of both base materials in its industry, we estimate these indirect effects to be roughly half the size of the direct impact. Hence, unless the tariffs are broadened very materially, the current trade tensions are unlikely to derail the global macro outlook.

Second, both sectors are subject to long-standing trade tensions due to overcapacity globally, especially in the steel sector. Tariffs have been applied in these sectors on and off for decades. History offers two potential parallels on how the rest of the world might react. In the 1980s, Japan agreed to so-called Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) on its car industry in response to President Reagan’s protectionist push. In the early 2000s, by contrast, when President Bush imposed steel tariffs, the EU responded with highly targeted counter-measures. President Bush lifted the steel tariffs after 21 months, having bought the sector time to adjust, before the European levies were implemented. Looking at the list drawn up by the European Commission over the last few weeks, it seems that this is how Europe would likely respond at the current juncture as well. In our view, a WTO-compatible response does not necessarily imply escalation. Against the historical backdrop, the measures announced thus far and the counter-measures considered seem less of a regime shift than the rhetoric would suggest.

Third, away from the US (and possibly Brexit), further trade liberalisation is still continuing. Since President Trump came to power, a number of important new trade agreements were negotiated, signed or ratified. These agreements include the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Mexico and CETA, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada, among others. At the same time, China is pushing ahead with its One Belt One Road initiative, which over time should also open up to new trade channels. True, the big gains in trade liberalisation triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union, China’s accession to the WTO and a sharp drop in transport and communication costs likely lie behind us now. But this does not mean that there is no further trade integration in the future.

All in all, the trade policy measures proposed thus far are unlikely to change our global macro outlook. Several factors could change this benign assessment. For starters, if fears of escalating trade tensions impact financial markets noticeably, material movements in equity markets and/or exchange rates could create fresh forecast risks. According to Hans Redeker, who heads our FX strategy research, US trade protectionism reinforces the current US dollar weakness – a development that is not helping to rebalance the transatlantic economy. Instead, a weaker USD could reinforce concerns about overheating in the US. But it could also bring into question whether the ECB will reach its inflation objective and seems to have triggered another vocal response from ECB President Draghi this past week. In addition, we have not seen all of the trade policy measures that are in the pipeline in the US. Many trade policy experts view future measures relating to intellectual property rights under Section 301, the amendment of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) and, of course, the NAFTA renegotiations as potentially more powerful.

  

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Our US Equity strategists remain positive with a 3000 S&P 500 target for year-end 2018. They see the February market selloff as entirely technical and believe focus returns to strong fundamentals as we move closer to 1Q earnings season. Companies are expected to deliver double-digit earnings growth on US tax catalyst, global synchronized growth, and weaker USD. Also, they anticipate a ramp-up in investment activity (buybacks, dividends, M&A, and capex) driven by rising profits, cash repatriation, and falling policy uncertainty. S&P 500 companies should execute a record ~$800 billion in gross share repurchases throughout this year (vs. $530b in 2017) with incremental buybacks to be funded by stronger earnings growth, tax cuts and cash repatriation. While rising long-term rates will ultimately become a negative for profits and multiples, our strategists do not see current levels as a reason to sell equities, and believe US corporates are better positioned to endure a rising rate environment than at past points in this cycle. They recommend investors to continue buying market dips and remain OW reflation-sensitive domestic sectors and UW bond-proxies.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive on the outlook for equities. They highlight that the growth policy trade-off for stocks is still exceptional, where real rates continue to be outright negative. Activity momentum has peaked, but the pace of growth is likely to remain above trend and earnings are set to continue growing. Within this, where they advise to be somewhat more cautious is on the commodity sectors, both Miners and Energy, given very stretched inventory levels.

JPMorgan

  

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Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks, though Brent gained this week after key international oil agencies (OPEC, IEA) published their monthly reports. OPEC admitted shale’s resurgence by increasing their US production growth forecasts, though excess supply obliges them to keep cartel compliance high in coming months (next OPEC meeting is Jun 22nd). By raising their US oil production growth forecasts, there is now a convergence of views between the IEA and OPEC. The IEA on the other hand increased their demand expectation for 2018 by 90k barrels per day and also increased the call-on-OPEC target, which is the amount of oil OPEC needs to produce to help balance the market. Here IEA has slowly followed in the footsteps of OPEC that has remained bullish on demand relative to IEA. This outcome is supportive for oil prices despite both agencies expecting high US liquids supply driven by shale, as we believe the US outlook is already priced into markets. The 2018 JPM forecast is for US liquids growth to run at around 1.7mn barrels per day, slightly higher the agencies expected.
• Where we differ from OPEC and IEA is that we do expect markets to remain tight in H1 on stronger demand and OPEC inadvertently tightening markets ahead of their Jun 22nd meeting. After that, we expect compliance to weaken by end of 2018 and early 2019 as demand growth slows and as the real impact of US shale growth becomes more evident. By end of the year, we currently expect oil prices to come under considerable pressure unless US liquids supply growth slows, which is definitely a risk alongside unplanned outages from Venezuela and some other geopolitically unstable oil exporters.

JPMorgan

  

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RBI-Brezinschek: Bullenmarkt an den Börsen noch nicht zu Ende

Aktienmärkte sollten heuer noch einmal einen Schub bekommen - Zäsur zum Jahreswechsel 2019 erwartet - Abschwung sollte nur langsam erfolgen - "10 bis 15 Prozent heuer noch immer drinnen"

Zumindest im laufenden Jahr dürfte der Bullenmarkt an den internationalen Aktienmärkten noch anhalten. Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld sollte den Börsen noch einmal einen Schub geben, erwartet der Chef-Analyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek. Allerdings sollte 2018 anfälliger für Rückschläge sein. Eine Zäsur dürfte dann der Jahreswechsel 2019 markieren.
"Der Börsenzyklus ist noch nicht zu Ende", sagte Brezinschek am Montag bei einem Pressegespräch in Wien. Seit nunmehr neun Jahren befänden sich die Aktienmärkte nun schon im Aufschwung. Mit 108 Monaten dauere der aktuelle Bullenmarkt bereits doppelt so lange wie im Durchschnitt und der Anstieg falle mit 305 Prozent - gemessen am US-Aktienmarkt - doppelt so hoch aus wie im Schnitt der bisherigen Bullenmärkte. Übertroffen wurde er nur in den Jahren 1990 bis 2000. Damals endete der Bullenmarkt mit dem Platzen der Internetblase. "Das Ende von Bullenmärkten wurde immer von Unternehmensdaten und nicht etwa von Leitzinserhöhungen ausgelöst", so Brezinschek.

Die derzeitige Hochkonjunktur in der Weltwirtschaft werde praktisch von allen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften mitgetragen, deren Konjunkturindikatoren befänden sich alle nahe den historischen Höchstständen.

Da der Aufschwung in der Eurozone nur relativ langsam erfolgt sei, rechnet Brezinschek auch nur mit einem langsamen Abschwung, was ein optimistisches Bild sei. "Erst ab 2020 dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum unter das Potenzialwachstum von 1,3 Prozent fallen", so Brezinschek. Auch in den USA laufe die Konjunktur weiter rund. Mit US-Steuerreform sei bloß "Öl ins Feuer" gegossen worden. Die sehr erfreuliche wirtschaftliche Entwicklung spiegle sich auch in der global zuversichtlichen Stimmung der Unternehmen wider.

Nunmehr komme es zu Änderungen im monetären Umfeld. So baue die US-Notenbank etwa seit dem vierten Quartal 2017 ihre Bilanz ab und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) werde ihr Anleihenkaufprogramm im September auslaufen lassen. In der Folge rechnet Brezinschek ab März 2019 bis März 2020 mit vier Zinsschritten der EZB um jeweils 0,25 Prozentpunkte auf dann 1,00 Prozent.

Auf der ersten Zinstagung der amerikanischen Notenbank Fed unter ihrem neuen Chef Jerome Powell am kommenden Mittwoch erwartet sich Brezinschek Hinweise darauf, ob es in den USA heuer zu drei oder vier Zinserhöhungen kommen wird. "Eine vierte Zinserhöhung würde den Markt zwischenzeitlich belasten, weil der Markt derzeit nicht davon ausgeht", so Brezinschek.

Laut dem RBI-Chefanalysten hat es am US-Aktienmarkt in der Vergangenheit im Schnitt sieben Monate gedauert, bis es vom Hoch zu einer Rezession gekommen ist. Der Rückgang habe dabei im Schnitt 31 Prozent betragen. Demnach könnte es im ersten Quartal 2019 zu einem Einbruch kommen. "Das ist aber nicht unser Stimmungsbild", betonte Brezinschek. Sollte es andererseits erst im ersten Quartal 2020 zum Abschwung kommen, wäre laut einer anderen Analyse heuer noch eine zweistellige Performance möglich.

"10 bis 15 Prozent sind heuer immer drinnen", sagte Brezinschek. Allerdings werden die Schwankungen größer. 2019 dürften dann keine positiven Ertragsraten mehr möglich sein. Dies werde aber von den Konjunkturparametern abhängen und wie stark diese wirkten. "Ich sehe noch einmal ein Umfeld, dass einen Schub bringen kann", sagte Brezinschek.

Für die Finanzmärkte gehe derzeit das größte Risiko von einer Verschärfung des Protektionismus in Form von gegenseitigen Zollschranken aus. Das stelle eine Gefahr für den Welthandel und die Exportwirtschaft dar. "US-Präsident Donald Trump sollte das Spiel mit dem Welthandel beiseitelegen", so Brezinschek.

Ein weiterer Risikofaktor seien die geopolitischen Spannungen im Nahen Osten. Die Märkte belasten würde auch eine vierte Zinserhöhung in den USA. Für Unsicherheit sorge zudem der bevorstehende Brexit, und ob dieser hart oder weich ausfallen werde. Beschränkt werde das Wachstumspotenzial der Weltwirtschaft zudem durch den weltweiten Fachkräftemangel.

In Zahlen gefasst traut Brezinschek dem US-Aktienindex Dow Jones heuer einen Anstieg von derzeit rund 25.000 auf rund 26.000 Punkte zu. Der deutsche Aktienindex DAX könnte von aktuell 12.300 noch auf 13.000 Punkte zulegen und der Wiener ATX von aktuell 3.450 auf 3.800 Punkte steigen.

  

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ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ausblick trübt sich deutlich ein

Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland gehen im März 2018 deutlich zurück. Der Index verliert gegenüber dem Vormonat 12,7 Punkte und steht nun bei 5,1 Punkten (langfristiger Mittelwert: 23,6 Punkte). Der Anteil der Experten/-innen, die eine Verschlechterung in den kommenden sechs Monaten erwarten, steigt um 7,2 Prozent auf 12,9 Prozent.

„Die Sorge vor einem durch die USA ausgelösten globalen Handelskonflikt lässt die Experten/-innen vorsichtiger in die Zukunft blicken. Auch der starke Euro belastet die Konjunkturaussichten für die Exportnation Deutschland. In Verbindung mit der immer noch sehr guten Lageeinschätzung ist der Ausblick aber weiterhin positiv“, kommentiert ZEW-Präsident Prof. Achim Wambach, Ph.D.

Die Bewertung der konjunkturellen Lage verschlechtert sich leicht um 1,6 Punkte auf 90,7 Punkte. Die Sorge um einen möglichen Handelskonflikt mit den USA belastet auch den Ausblick für die Eurozone. Der Erwartungsindikator fällt um 15,9 Punkte auf 13,4 Punkte. Auch die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage in der Eurozone geht zurück. Der entsprechende Indikator fällt um 1,5 Punkte auf 56,2 Punkte.

  

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Draghi's Success Is Double-Edged as Labor Boom Adds to Slack

Mario Draghi’s success in reviving the euro-area economy could, ironically, delay the European Central Bank’s exit from extraordinary stimulus.

The currency bloc’s broadest economic expansion in its history is drawing workers back to the job market and spurring companies to invest to replace aging equipment. Governments -- with varying degrees of reluctance -- have even pushed some through reforms aimed at improving productivity.

The result is the 19-nation economy should now be able to grow at a faster rate than before without spurring inflation. Bloomberg Economics reckons the pace of so-called potential growth rose to 1.9 percent last year compared with 1.2 percent in 2016.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/draghi-s-success-is-double-edged-as-la bor-boom-adds-to-slack

  

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JPMorgan Sees Market Overcoming Stock Rout, But Beware Trade War

espite a harrowing week for U.S. stocks, market conditions are looking favorable heading into the second quarter, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Conditions for stability will probably come together in the second quarter, and asset allocations should remain oriented toward growth, JPMorgan strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note Friday after the S&P 500 closed down 6 percent for the week. They also suggested, however, that a potential trade war is a threat to economic growth.

"Two of four conditions for market stability have been met (tamer inflation, not-so-hawkish Federal Reserve), and the two others could align in the second quarter (stable activity data, de-escalation of trade conflict),” the strategists wrote.

Their recommended asset allocation includes being overweight equities versus bonds; long financials, industrials and oil; and selectively long on emerging markets.

While there’s now a risk premium for worse growth through bad policies, the strategists said that U.S. sanctions this year "equate to less than 0.5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product," and China’s retaliation this week has been “disproportionately mild.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-25/jpmorgan-sees-market-overcoming-stock- rout-but-beware-trade-war

  

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What perhaps stood out the most about the price action last week was that any buy the dip mentality appeared to just disappear. In fact, that has been the case for the last two weeks with the S&P closing lower than the midpoint of its intraday range every single day. That’s the longest streak since at least 1982.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Politics is playing a bigger role in influencing the markets than is typical, and I (and others) am still trying to figure out where Donald Trump is taking us, especially as it regards trade and other wars. Besides prompting me to think hard and dig deep into what’s now happening, it is leading me to delve deeper into past trade and military wars to see their effects on economies and markets.

I will pass along my findings when I complete the examination. In the meantime, I will share some of my ruminations for the little that they are worth.

Since Donald Trump sounds more willing to enter into a trade war than any president since Herbert Hoover, and since starting a trade war is like throwing rocks in the gears of the world economy, his recent moves are naturally scary to the markets.

However, thus far what he has actually done is modest and appears significantly politically motivated, so what we are seeing could be a negotiation tactic and a political move that needn’t mean a trade war is likely.

Also, as expected, the Chinese response to his move was modest, so thus far we have seen a lot of threatening without much damage, which is understandable ahead of midterm elections. If this is the negotiating that I expect, the next move will be toward some trade agreements that will look like victories for Trump, so tensions will subside and the markets will like it.

That’s the most likely scenario. I would consider that scenario to be broken if there is any new worsening in trade relations with China from here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-26/what-keeps-dalio-night-trade-war-harbinger-bigg er-conflict

  

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Hört,hört?

Donald J. Trump

Verifizierter Account

@realDonaldTrump
7 Std.vor 7 Stunden
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Trade talks going on with numerous countries that, for many years, have not treated the United States fairly. In the end, all will be happy!

  

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Einfuhrzölle, Stagflationsgefahr und normale ­Aktienschwankungen

Autor: von Alois Wögerbauer Geschäftsführer 3 Banken-Generali Invest

...

„Man wird uns kennenlernen“, drohte EU-Kommissionschef Juncker in Richtung Donald Trump und kündigte Gegenmaßnahmen an. Harley-Davidsons, Whiskey und Blue-Jeans sollen mit Zöllen belegt werden. Damit war ihm die europäische Medienaufmerksamkeit gewiss. Was er vergessen hat zu erwähnen ist, dass die EU ihrerseits seit geraumer Zeit 10% Einfuhrzölle berechnet, wenn Autos aus den USA in den EU-Raum importiert werden. Laut Deutschem Ifo-Institut liegt der ungewichtete Durchschnittszoll der EU gegenüber der USA bei 5,2%, jener der USA gegenüber dem EU-Raum bei 3,5%. Soviel zur Sachlage – ohne für eine Seite Partei zu ergreifen.

...

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/einfuhrzoelle-stagflationsgefahr-und-normale -aktienschwankungen--12389

  

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• Our Global Equity Strategists believe that the risk-reward for stocks has not turned medium term negative, and would be adding at these levels. Equities have again entered oversold territory at the end of March. In contrast, bonds are close to being overbought. Positioning is less stretched – HF beta is down and the AAII Bull Bear indicator is outright negative, suggesting there is less complacency, which is a healthy development. Earnings are likely to be a tailwind: even post some stalling, global Q1 activity levels are still stronger than they were in Q4, while in contrast Q1 consensus EPS expectations (ex tax) are much more muted than they were in Q4. Finally, with Eurozone CESI not far from early 2016 lows, our strategists believe economic momentum is likely to stabilise from here. They advise adding to Equities, and look for Eurozone to be bottoming out vs the US.

JPMorgan

  

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The Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remind investors that equity fundamentals are still solid and equities are still cheap vs cash or other asset classes. The hurdle for beating the Q1 reporting season is not high, in our mind. We, thus, retain a large equity OW in our model portfolio hoping that the reporting season will encourage both retail and institutional investors to resume their equity buying. We fund this OW with 5% UW each in cash, corporate and government bonds.

JPMorgan

  

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Österreichische Behörden sind der Ansicht, dass osteuropäische Länder mögliche Pleiten von Tochtergesellschaften innerhalb ihrer Grenzen abwickeln und sicher stellen sollten.

Österreichische Banken, die nach dem Ende des kommunistischen Regimes rasch nach Osteuropa strömten und dadurch zu den größten Kreditinstituten in der Region wurden, stehen vor einer Wiederbelebung der zehn Jahre alten Debatte, wer für den Zusammenbruch einer lokalen Tochtergesellschaft aufkommt, sagt ein führender Notenbanker.

Österreichische Behörden sind der Ansicht, dass osteuropäische Länder mögliche Pleiten von Tochtergesellschaften innerhalb ihrer Grenzen abwickeln und sicher stellen sollten, dass die Kosten durch lokal begebene Wertpapiere abgedeckt werden, sodass die Banken-Muttergesellschaften und Österreich effektiv abgeschirmt sind, sagte Vize-Gouverneur Andreas Ittner in einem Interview.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5407040/Oesterreich-laesst-Debatte-um-Ban kenVerluste-wieder-aufleben


  

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Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve and associated recession talk, but the shape of the curve is a distraction. The reality is that the Fed has an inflation target of 2% and core CPI inflation is 2.1% and according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model core PCE inflation in March will come in at 1.9%. Despite the strong uptrend in inflation, the consensus expects core PCE to hit 2% next quarter and then stay at 2.0% for the coming 12 months. In the history of economics, it has never happened in any country anywhere in the world that inflation has hit the target and stayed at exactly that level for 12 months. The risk of an inflation overshoot is rising, and as a result, the belly and the long end of the curve will move higher, finally recognizing that the Fed is right that higher rates are needed across the curve to cool down inflation and the economy.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America First policies
The cumulative, negative effect is rising but still looks very small

• Market participants have always struggled to net the impact of President Trump’s growth-enhancing policies (tax cuts, deregulation) and his growth-inhibiting ones (trade/military conflict, immigration restrictions). 2018 has made the tension most apparent, with trade sanctions coming only a month after tax reform was approved.
• Is the cumulative effect of numerous America First policies eroding the benefits of tax reform? Not yet. Trade conflict has soared to its highest level in at least 35 years but remains trivial compared to the size of the economy. The US’s immigration regime is tightening at its fastest pace since the September 11th attacks, but is far from reducing potential growth materially. US environmental policy is diverging from trends in many other large countries, but with no obvious impact on US energy efficiency. National security issues have surged as a preoccupation but not as a durable driver of market volatility.
• If a common theme with America First policies is that investors should take these measures seriously but not literally, the strategy implication is to keep asset allocation pro-cyclical but to hedge opportunistically, particularly when risk premia are low. In early March, this approach meant hedging trade conflict through currencies. Now, it means fading that stress scenario and focusing on national security issues by owning oil assets.
• Perhaps we are too complacent on the strategic allocation given that the Administration’s impulsive style carries greater risk of miscalculation when applied to national security than when deployed on trade, immigration or environmental issues. Hedges will help, but they will not fully compensate if the Administration must ever be taken literally on America First policies.

JPMorgan

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 12 Reasons Not To Short

Over the nearly two decades that I ran a hedge fund until I closed it last September, I was an active short seller. There were some epic highs - most notably identifying in early 2008 the bursting of the housing bubble and discovering in 2012 that Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL) was selling formaldehyde-tainted, Chinese-made laminate flooring, both of which landed me on 60 Minutes - but overall I lost a lot of money over the years on the short side.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4152732-lessons-15-years-short-selling-12-reasons-short? page=1

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: 10 Reasons To Short

•Short selling is brutally difficult, especially during a long, complacent bull market like this one, so most investors would be better off learning about shorting, but not doing it.

•That said, shorting can make sense for certain investors for 10 reasons.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156799-lessons-15-years-short-selling-10-reasons-short? page=1

  

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Lessons From 15 Years Of Short Selling: A Veteran's Advice

To make money shorting, look for an edge, be patient, and don't be deterred by long investors and management.

To avoid getting your face ripped off, avoid valuation shorts, accelerating growth, and companies with insanely loyal customers.

Also avoid stocks owned by irrational investors and/or in industries with big, dumb acquirers, and never use options.

weiter:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166837-lessons-15-years-short-selling-veterans-advice

  

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Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about this country

Legendary investor Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway, is bullish on the potential of women in the U.S. to boost the economy.

“I have two sisters that are absolutely smart as I am and better personalities,” Buffett told Yahoo Finance’s editor-in-chief Andy Serwer in a wide-ranging interview. “And, they were born around my time of 1930. And they were told, ‘Marry early and marry well.’

According to Buffett, 87, that was the “unseen message” his sisters received growing up.

“I mean, nobody ever said it that way. So, I have seen half of the United States’ talent basically put off to the side,” he said.

That means that women hold the key to unlocking economic growth in the U.S. A recent report from S&P Global argued that promoting the entry and retention of more women in the workforce in the U.S., particularly in STEM fields, could create a “substantial growth opportunity,” with the potential to add 5% to 10% to nominal GDP in a just few decades.

“It’s one of the things that makes me optimistic about America because when I look at what we have accomplished using half our talent for a couple of centuries, and now I think of doubling the talent that is effectively employed or at least has the chance to be it makes me very optimistic about this country,” Buffett said.

Das TV-Interview: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-women-make-optimistic-country-120930431.htm l

  

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• Our US strategists expect this earnings season to be a significant support for equities as companies deliver stronger-than-expected earnings growth and guidance on shareholder return from tax windfall. Currently, 72% of S&P 500 companies are beating 1Q revenue estimates (vs. 68% prior four earnings seasons) and 82% are beating earnings estimates (vs. 72% prior four earnings seasons). Blended 1Q Revenue Growth (reported + estimate) is now 7.3% and Earnings Growth is 17.6% and our strategists expect companies to beat earnings estimates by 4-5% this quarter. So far, 1Q18 EPS has been revised up by 0.7% to $36.40 and the team expects quarterly EPS of ~$37.50 by end of the season. While this is only based on 58 companies (12% of universe) the team expects the early part of the reporting cycle to set expectations moving forward.
• Our Global Equity strategists continue to see further upside in risky assets as fears over the growth ease and trade/geopolitical uncertainty fades. They believe that it is too early to position for the Fed’s policy mistake as real rates remain outright negative and the gap with the Taylor rule is still significant. They also note that yield curve flattening always happens at this stage of the cycle and equities never peaked before outright yield curve inversion. In the near term, our strategists believe Q1 will be a positive catalyst as the hurdle rate is unassuming. They believe one should be long Cyclicals vs Defensive sectors as bond yields resume their upmove, and the Financials should catch a bid, too. Regionally, they expect Eurozone to keep bottoming out vs the US, and for the EM to keep consolidating.

JPMorgan

  

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• The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings beats and surprises with 36% of S&P 500 companies having reported thus far. About 80% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates (vs. 72% prior four earnings seasons) and 68% are beating 1Q revenue estimates. Blended 1Q Revenue Growth (reported + estimate) is now 7.4% and Earnings Growth is 21.1% (vs. 17.6% last week) —in line with the team’s aggressive expectation of 4-5% for this. Consumer Discretionary (+1.4%) and Healthcare (+1.2%) companies are delivering the strongest post reporting 1-day outperformance while investors have been less impressed by Telecom (-0.9%) and Staples (-0.3%). The S&P 500 is up ~1% since the start of earnings season and further upside is expected as companies exit earnings season blackout period and could accelerate repurchases.

• Our Equity strategists are constructive on equities, and believe one should be adding at these levels. The fundamental supports revolve around still healthy earnings in both the US and in Europe, likely stabilisation in activity momentum as seen in a pickup in US CESI, and improved technical picture. Real rates remain outright negative, central banks accommodative, and it is too early to position for a policy mistake. At a sector level, the team continues to look for further upside in Cyclicals vs Defensives on the expectation of rising bond yields. Our strategists also prefer Eurozone to the US, as Euro headwind is turning, among other, and expect EM to continue consolidating vs DM.

JPMorgan

  

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Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple
Warren Buffett sagt ein "böses Ende" für Kryptowährungen voraus. Seine Beteiligungsfirma besitzt Aktien im Wert von 170 Milliarden Dollar. Neue Bilanzregeln sorgen für rote Zahlen.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/unternehmen/5418291/StarInvestor-Buffett-warnt-vor- Bitcoin-und-lobt-Apple

  

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• Global equities remain in a consolidation mode, but with significant regional divergences. Year-to-date, European equities are outperforming, now up 8-10% off the lows, in contrast to the EM which are at the lows and the US which is only 2% off the lows. A lot of the recent EM underperformance has been accompanied by a sharp correction in EM currencies. At a sector level, Cyclicals outperformed Defensives, with US Cyclicals making fresh new highs relative to Defensives and European Cyclicals regaining most of the recent losses.
• In the US, the earnings season has thus far acted as a catalyst to flush out some market dislocations. More so, rapid deleveraging in a poor market liquidity/depth environment is making some of the blue chip defensive names behave more like high beta stocks. For stocks that are effectively priced for perfection even small adjustment in guidance has resulted in disproportionate underperformance (e.g. KHC, PM, and PG are down -29%, -24% and -22% YTD respectively). Besides traditional low volatility sectors, stocks from non-traditional bond-proxy sectors, with strong momentum and compressed volatility, have faced similar risk (e.g. Capital Goods). While downside risk for this space should be more limited going forward, given the significant shift in their realized volatility profile, some further rotation from low volatility stocks to high volatility (e.g. value) stocks could be driven by Quant rebalancing early in May. The team is also reiterating its Energy OW and sees that sector as having the best risk/reward on the back of improving fundamentals, poor investor sentiment, and attractive valuation.
• Our Global Equity strategists are constructive on stocks and reiterate the key regional trades for this year: 1) Eurozone to keep bottoming out vs the US as the main drivers behind the US outperformance over Eurozone are fading – i.e. earnings, Tech and the FX. The worst of the currency headwind happened in Q1, and they believe that in the 2nd half positive sales surprises will shift from the US to Eurozone. Within Eurozone, Italy remains their top pick, but they see DAX as getting increasingly more attractive as well, especially if Euro continues to trade lower. 2) They were OW EM vs DM in 2016 and in 2017, but do not expect EM to outperform this year. FX, Fed, flows, Tech, trade, China dataflow and unwind of QE hurting inflows are some of the reasons behind their more cautious stance on EM, in relative terms.

JPMorgan

  

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We remain positive on equities based on two strong fundamental drivers: record-setting US corporate earnings, and robust and synchronized global economic growth, expected to rebound in 2Q from the 1Q temporary downshift. Meanwhile, key risks we highlighted in recent months appear to have eased: positioning is meaningfully lower, previously elevated valuations are now below historical averages, and central banks’ policies are likely to remain on balance accommodative. Although politics and trade war concerns are still a significant overhang, the worst of uncertainty and political risks might be behind us.

JPMorgan

  

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Currently, about 80% of US states have an unemployment rate below the NAIRU (which is 4.5%), and that is normally when the Fed funds rate peaks. We continue to see the Fed funds rate moving higher but something is different this time around, and our biggest fear is that we will get a non-linear burst in wage and price inflation once the economy runs out of people willing or able to work.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Und der Bericht war dann auch stark. Ich hatte ja schon immer den Verdacht der trades auf Basis seiner Tweets seinen Account

Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"

US-Präsident Donald Trump hat seine Vorfreude zum Arbeitsmarktbericht auf Twitter geteilt. Er freue sich auf die Datenvorlage um 8.30 Uhr Ortszeit (14.30 Uhr MESZ). Der Präsident und sein Stab haben die Möglichkeit, die Daten schon vor ihrer Veröffentlichung zu sehen.

  

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>Und der Bericht war dann auch stark. Ich hatte ja schon immer
>den Verdacht der trades auf Basis seiner Tweets seinen
>Account
>
>Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht"
>
>US-Präsident Donald Trump hat seine Vorfreude zum
>Arbeitsmarktbericht auf Twitter geteilt. Er freue sich auf die
>Datenvorlage um 8.30 Uhr Ortszeit (14.30 Uhr MESZ). Der
>Präsident und sein Stab haben die Möglichkeit, die Daten schon
>vor ihrer Veröffentlichung zu sehen.


Sehen auch andere so:

Trump Leaking Confidential Data Isn't a ‘So What?’

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-01/trump-leaking-confidential-data-isn-t- a-so-what

  

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Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamental backdrop will remain resilient, with a likely firming in growth into 2H. US PMIs were up for 2 months in a row, and historically US growth tended to lead Eurozone, rather than the other way around. Both the US and Eurozone employee compensation are making new cycle highs, as is consumer confidence. This should ensure DM retail sales continue bouncing from Q1 softness. The weaker Euro should also offer help to German export orders, which fell by a big 10 points at the turn of the year. Policy is still accommodative, and crucially, the inverse bond-equity correlation remains alive, leaving equities with an automatic valuation cushion as bond yields fall. To hedge out Italian uncertainty they reiterate the early May call to move out of Italy into Germany, and out of domestic into exporter plays, as Euro is the relief valve.

JPMorgan

  

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Der historische Handschlag zwischen Kim und Trump hatte über Nacht so gut wie keine Auswirkungen auf das Marktgeschehen. Anders die Bekennung des italienischen Finanzministers Giovanni Tria über Wochenende zum Euro, zur finanziellen Stabilität und zur Absicht die Verschuldungsquote zu reduzieren. Entsprechend stark handelten BTPs gestern und konnten sich in 10y um über 30bps gegenüber Bunds einengen, wobei das kurze Ende mit -50bps in der Rendite erneute am meisten profitierte. Umsätze waren abermals vor allem im Futures-Markt zu verzeichnen, während die Umsätze in der Kasse mit Hinblick auf die signifikante Einengung verhalten blieben.

  

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ECB policy announcement a material negative for the euro

We were expecting an ECB tapering announcement today but not a commitment to keep rates unchanged until at least "the summer of 2019". While the market has not been pricing a rate hike until later next year, we view the introduction of calendar-based guidance as a material negative development for the euro. First, this is the first time in the history of ECB where such unconditional calendar-based guidance has been introduced. Given that the ECB has refused to "pre-commit" in the past and always ascribed to state-contingent guidance, the willingness to enter into fixed date-based guidance is a material evolution to the policy framework signaling a greater dovishness of the council. Second, even if the market has not been priced for a rate hike until after the summer of 2019, calendar-based guidance shifts the distribution of risks. While the ECB can always extend the calendar guidance further out in the event of negative news, the ability for the market to reprice more hawkishly in the event of better news is now severely constrained. This is further reinforced by the conditional based nature of the end to the PSPP program that has been announced.
From a market perspective, the main implication of the "refreshed" ECB guidance should be to depress European rates volatility as well as encourage the use of the euro as a funding currency. We argued in favor of a 1.15-1.20 EURUSD summer range earlier this morning. Our conviction in the lower end of that range holding has now been materially reduced.

Deutsche Bank

  

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A yield curve inversion at the longer end also

This week’s central bank meetings exacerbated the global flattening trend. As a result the yield curve inversion is no longer confined to the front of the US curve but has also emerged at the longer end of the global government bond yield curve. The global government bond yield curve has flattened faster than national curves due to the higher share of the US in short-dated buckets and the higher share of lower yielding non-US bonds in longer-dated buckets.This means that at an aggregate level, bond investors globally are overall requiring no extra premium for holding longer-dated bonds vs short-dated bonds, something that happens rarely, e.g. when investors have little confidence in the trajectory of the economy, or they think monetary policy tightening is overdone or they see a high risk of a correction in risky markets such as equities.While our broader bond market positioning metric based on reactions to economic data suggests bonds have been trading on the long side over the past two weeks, real money investors appear to have joined the spec community in the short duration trade for the first time since January.The CFTC data suggest that 2s/10s steepeners are now a crowded trade, effectively making 2s/10s flatteners a contrarian trade.

JPMorgan

  

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Last week the Fed told us that over the coming years we will have strong above-potential growth.

In a normal forecasting exercise with the economy at full employment, strong growth would mean a strong downtrend in unemployment and a strong uptrend in wage and price inflation. But this is not in the FOMC forecast. The FOMC thinks we will have strong above-trend growth but inflation will stay at 2.1% in 2018, 2019, and 2020, even as growth continues to be significantly above potential. This is not a consistent forecast.

In other words, when putting together a forecast, with the economy at full employment you can’t have three years of above-potential growth with no move higher in inflation.

An alternative explanation is that the FOMC thinks that the unemployment rate moving further below NAIRU has no impact on inflation (i.e. the Phillips curve is completely flat). But if that is the case then why raise rates at all?

Deutsche Bank

  

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The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify

 
Our analysis indicates that such a further escalation of the trade dispute to include $200bn of imports could reduce real GDP growth by roughly -0.2 to -0.3 percentage points. In addition, the effective $32.5 billion “tax” on imported goods could have the effect of boosting core PCE inflation by roughly 0.15 percentage points.

 

Our equity strategists estimate that a 0.2 to 0.3pp drag on GDP growth translates to a 1 to 1.5% hit to S&P 500 earnings growth. In the context of 2018 EPS growth which is on track to hit their forecast of 23% and 2019 growth estimated in double-digits, a 1-1.5% drag is not particularly significant. While the indirect effects of uncertainty and hit to business confidence are harder to gauge, they see corporates responding by putting more of their cashflow towards share buybacks, the primary driver of equities in this cycle from a demand-supply perspective.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Trade war tensions


The increase in trade tensions over the last month has become the key focus for markets. The US administration has implemented several new protectionist measures and is intent on imposing even broader ones in the near-term, including greater control over foreign direct investment in the US designed to reduce the transfer of intellectual property to countries viewed as adversaries. While the direct macroeconomic impact of the existing measures will likely be small for now, further escalation may hurt growth by impacting confidence or tightening financial conditions. We view substantive escalation of trade disputes, leading to unilateral imposition of further tariff and non-tariff barriers as a real possibility.

This comes at a time when growth momentum is at an inflection point, while still remaining strong, particularly in the US. The US economy continues to trend toward fiscal stimulus-driven overheating, while European growth is likely to have peaked. Most emerging markets will continue to grow despite recent market volatility.

There is a renewed divergence between the world’s two largest economies: the Federal Reserve is tightening policy to avert any inflation risks while the European Central Bank has shifted in a dovish direction portends a significant trend for global markets. The spread between 10-year US and German yields has already reached its widest level in almost 30 years, and the euro has been under pressure. The deterioration of the fiscal outlook and debt sustainability in Italy adds to the challenges in Europe.

This divergence in monetary policy is likely to become a major theme again in determining market views. While still expect the dollar to depreciate in the medium term based on the US’s weak external position, the growing rate differentials will provide strong support for now. Sovereign bond yields are likely to rise further as central banks withdraw accommodation but will reflect the divergence of performance. Equities will continue to gain as global growth decelerates but remains strong, albeit with higher volatility.

Deutsche Bank

  

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RBI: Handelskonflikte derzeit größtes Risiko für Kapitalmärkte
Brezinschek: "Ökonomische Fakten gar nicht so schlecht" - An Aktienmärkten überwiegen Risikofaktoren - Über Sommermonate schwächere Indizes erwartet

RBI-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek sieht im von den USA ausgehenden Handelskonflikt das größte Risiko für die Entwicklung der internationalen Kapitalmärkte. Die ökonomischen Fakten seien dagegen "gar nicht so schlecht", sagte Brezinschek am Mittwoch bei der Präsentation der RBI-Kapitalmarktstrategie für das dritte Quartal. Die Aktienmärkte dürften deshalb über die Sommermonate weiter korrigieren.
Zu den fast schon nicht mehr überschaubaren politischen Risiken zählt Brezinschek etwa in Europa die politische Lage in Italien und auch die ungelöste Regierungssituation in Deutschland, die zu einer Blockade der EU führen könnte. Dazu kämen noch zahlreiche außereuropäische politische Risiken.

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung sei dagegen nicht so schlecht. In der Eurozone etwa sollte die Wirtschaft nach 2,6 Prozent im Vorjahr heuer um 2,3 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr um 1,7 Prozent wachsen. In Österreich gebe es aufgrund starker Bruttoanlageninvestitionen sogar eine Sondersituation: Hier erwartet Brezinschek für heuer wie im Vorjahr ein BIP-Plus von 3,0 Prozent und 1,9 Prozent für 2019.

In der CEE-Region dürfte der Wachstumsvorsprung gegenüber der Eurozone weiter anhalten. Enttäuschen würden nur Russland mit unverändert 1,5 Prozent im Jahr 2018 und die Türkei - aber auf hohem Niveau - mit heuer 4,0 Prozent nach 7,4 Prozent im Vorjahr. In Summe werde das Wirtschaftswachstum weltweit auch 2019 über dem Potenzialwachstum liegen.

Eine interessante Entwicklung erwartet Brezinschek ab 2020/2021 für Osteuropa aufgrund der Neuverteilung der EU-Kohäsionsmittel, die aber erst nach den EU-Wahlen im kommenden Jahr beschlossen werden dürfte. Die Gesamtsumme dürfte zwar nur minimal von 335 auf 329 Mrd. Euro sinken, für zentral- und osteuropäische Länder aber von 175 auf 160 Mrd. Euro zurückgehen. Bezogen auf das BIP bedeute dies für die CESEE-Länder sogar einen Rückgang von 28 auf 18 Prozent, was einer wirtschaftlichen Kürzung von 30 bis 35 Prozent entspreche. Der Wachstumsbeitrag dieser Fördermittel könnte von 0,3 bis 0,8 auf 0,2 bis 0,4 Prozent zurückgehen. Die Länder könnten aber mehr Mittel über andere EU-Fonds aufnehmen, relativierte Brezinschek die möglichen negativen Auswirkungen.

Von der geldpolitischen Seite erwartet sich Brezinschek für die Sommermonate eine neutrale Tendenz. Von der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) sei bis zum Sommer 2019 nichts zu erwarten. Die EZB werde mit ihrem Anleihenkaufprogramm ein "Big Player" auf dem Rentenmarkt bleiben. Auf der Währungsseite bleibe der US-Dollar unterstützt, 2019 sollte der Euro aber gegenüber der US-Devise wieder in Richtung 1,25 anziehen. Die osteuropäischen Währungen befänden sich im Schlepptau des etwas angeschlagenen Euro.

Am Rentenmarkt profitierten von der unsicheren politischen Lage in Italien neben Deutschland auch Österreich, wo die Renditen niedriger als erwartet seien. Zehnjährige italienische Staatsanleihen sollten bis Mitte 2019 von aktuell 2,56 noch auf 3,5 Prozent anziehen. Damit würden sie - wie auch für Griechenland - nur knapp über den US-Zinsen liegen, was ein verzerrtes Risiko/Ertrags-Verhältnis sei. Der Grund dafür liege in der "verzerrten" EZB-Politik.

Auf den Aktienmärkten überwiegen derzeit die Risikofaktoren, so Brezinschek. Nicht nur seien saisonal die Sommermonate schwache Monate - "auch das Sentiment macht uns vorsichtig". Obwohl die Gewinndynamik der Unternehmen noch nicht am Ende angelangt sei, dürfte die Korrekturphase überwiegen. Die Gewinndynamik dürfte aber noch drei bis vier Quartale lang anhalten. Bis zum Jahresende sollten die Indexstände wieder höher liegen.

Auch der österreichische Aktienmarkt leide unter dem aktuellen politischen Umfeld, so Stefan Maxian, Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB) - bis heute hat der Leitindex ATX seit Jahresbeginn bereits knapp 6 Prozent verloren und liegt nur mehr knapp über der 3.200-Punkte-Marke. Per Jahresende 2018 dürfte der ATX wieder bei 3.500 Punkten liegen. Die Variation innerhalb der ATX-Titel sei groß, mit dem Versorger Verbund und dem Ölindustriezulieferer SBO an der Spitze. Am unteren Ende liegen AT&S und voestalpine. Das Bewertungsniveau sei günstig, das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) liege mit etwa 11 Prozent unter dem langjährigen Durchschnitt von 12 Prozent. Die Gewinnentwicklung sei solide. Nach 40,6 Prozent erwartet Maxian für heuer 8,6 Prozent.

Sowohl für den österreichischen als auch für die osteuropäischen Aktienmärkte erwartet Maxian über die Sommermonate eine schwächere Performance. Zu Jahresende hin sei dann wieder mit einem Aufschwung zu rechnen. Unter den Einzeltiteln sollten von der anhaltenden Baukonjunktur Palfinger und Strabag profitieren. Unter den anderen von der RBI analysierten Märkten werden nur Russland und die Türkei zum "Kauf" empfohlen.

  

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Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause

Autor: von Alois Wögerbauer, Geschäftsführer und Fondsmanager 3 Banken-Generali Invest

„Alles ist gut – dies macht erfahrene Börsianer vorsichtig.“ Dies war eine unserer Leitplanken zu Jahresbeginn 2018.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/alois-woegerbauer-zwischencheck-vor-der-somm erpause-30474

  

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US overheating

More clients are beginning to worry about upside risks to inflation, and most clients agree that if the consensus is right that GDP growth over the coming quarters will be around 3%, mainly driven by strong capex growth, then we will also continue to see more signs of an overheating labor market and continued labor shortages across sectors including transportation, retail, homebuilding, and health care. With core PCE inflation today already at the Fed’s 2.0% target this projection of continued above-trend GDP growth is pointing to more upside risks to inflation than the end-of-year 2.1% expected by the consensus and the Fed. Some clients push back and say that the consensus capex forecast is too optimistic and companies will end up doing buybacks instead of capex. But the Q1 GDP data showed a very strong capex number suggesting that the corporate tax cut will not only be spent on buybacks but also on business fixed investment, in particular in tech. The bottom line is that there is a significant risk that core PCE inflation in 2018H2 will overshoot 2%, which would push the term premium higher and steepen the yield curve. The argument for a move higher in the term premium is strengthened by the fading of the corporate pension bid for the long end, which will go away in Q4 after the September deadline for contributing to corporate pension plans at the old 35% corporate tax rate.

 

Treasury supply

The total supply of US Treasuries that has to be absorbed by the market (i.e. Treasury net issuance plus Fed running down their balance sheet) will increase from $700bn in 2017 to $1.3trn in 2019, and the key question continues to be: Who will buy all these Treasuries and at what interest rate? Many clients want to discuss the impact the increase in T-bill issuance in 2018H1 had on Libor-OIS and CP and short duration IG. With the US Treasury’s stated goal of keeping the average maturity of government debt constant at around 5.5 years the Treasury will have to issue more paper in the long end in 2018H2, which raises the risk that long-duration credit spreads will widen out in H2, similar to what we saw for Libor-OIS, as issuing more risk-free assets begins to compete for dollars with more risky assets, especially IG. The bottom line is that in 2018H2 increased Treasury supply will push long rates higher and credit spreads wider. Wider IG credit spreads will also be the result of ECB exiting QE and rising hedging costs for foreigners buying US fixed income, mainly driven by the Fed raising short rates.

 

Trade war

US overheating and the explosion in Treasury supply all point to higher rates across the curve. A full-blown trade war, however, would be a drag on rates. But most clients agree that the trade war is so far not having any meaningful impact on the US economic outlook. Specifically, tariffs on $34bn of imports is very limited when taking into account that US total imports are around $2.5trn. If we begin to see tariffs on autos or auto parts then it will be much more serious because US auto manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers account for around 7% of total employment in the US economy. The bottom line is that the negative impact of the ongoing trade war is small but if the trade war moves to cars and car parts then it would begin to exert a meaningful drag on GDP growth and hence also on equities, Fed expectations, and long rates.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Our Global Equity strategists remain positive on the health of the business cycle and believe that the current trade uncertainty will drive policy easing in China, which could in fact further reinforce growth firming in 2H. Equities have derated, sentiment has turned bearish (a good contrarian signal), and monetary conditions remain accommodative. One didn’t tend to have a sustained slowdown without HY spreads widening – these are still near cycle lows. They recommend buying into trade uncertainty driven weakness and find cyclical exporters to be attractive. Autos have never been this cheap. Our strategists maintain a cautious view on EM equities and a Preference for US vs the Eurozone

JPMorgan

  

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Handelskonflikte - RBI-Brezinschek: "EU kein Musterschüler"
Experte wünscht sich Vorstoß von Österreich in Handelsfragen im Rahmen des EU-Vorsitzes anstatt nur Thema "Sicherheit" zu beackern

Der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China beschäftigt Exporteure, Volkswirtschafter und Wirtschafts- bzw. Finanzanalysten gleichermaßen. Der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek, sieht US-Präsidenten Donald Trump grundsätzlich die richtigen Fragen stellen. "Nur gibt er die falschen Antworten", sagte der Experte am Freitag in einem Gespräch mit Journalisten.
China und andere ehemalige asiatische Emerging Markets seien nach wie vor sehr geschützte Volkswirtschaften und würden hohe Zölle einheben. Dazu käme die Frage des Geistigen Eigentums, da ausländische Unternehmen meist nur mit Joint Ventures Fuß fassen könnten. Das bedeute gleichzeitig einen Technologietransfer. Dagegen wollte Trump eben vorgehen, denn die US-Volkswirtschaft sei viel offener als die asiatischen und auch offener als die europäischen Volkswirtschaften, so Brezinschek.

Grundsätzlich habe es Trump mit seiner Handelspolitik viel stärker auf China als auf die EU abgesehen. Sollte er sich für höhere Zölle auf EU-Kfz entscheiden, dann würde sich das spürbar auswirken, so der RBI-Chefanalyst. "Kommt sofort die Retourkutsche, dann kann das natürlich weiter eskalieren." Der gesamte Konflikt habe bisher keine dramatischen Auswirkungen auf die Stimmung von Einkaufsmanagern in Europa gehabt. Asien ist mehr betroffen. Komme es zu einer Eskalation würde das reale Wachstum wohl aufgefressen werden, so der Fachmann.

Brezinschek ist überzeugt, dass Europa - "im Wissen selbst nicht der Musterschüler zu sein" - über die höheren Zölle nachdenken müsse, das es im Vergleich zu den USA einhebt. Eine "richtige Antwort" wäre ein Versuch eines Handelsabkommens mit den USA - um dann WTO-Regeln entsprechend die Zölle gegenseitig zu senken. Der Experte bedauert, dass es nicht zu TTIP kam und würde sich einen zweiten Anlauf wünschen. Dann könnten auch gemeinsame Industriestandards festgelegt werden, was Vorteile gegenüber China bedeuten würde, da man Rahmenbedingungen selbst vorgebe.

Der RBI-Chefanalyst schlug vor, dass sich Österreich im Rahmen seiner EU-Präsidentschaft nicht nur auf "Sicherheit" konzentrieren sondern auch einen Vorstoß in Handelsfragen tätigen könnte. Es gehe darum, Mitgliedsländer mit Industrie- und Mitgliedsländer mit Agrarschwerpunkt zu einigen um gemeinsam vorzugehen. "Europa ist ein bisserl in einer Zwickmühle - es herrscht Uneinigkeit und keine besondere Offenheit in Handelsfragen. Es gibt einzelne Mitgliedsländer die sich ganz gerne bei gewissen Handelsthemen abschotten. Daher soll sich Europa nicht immer als Moralapostel in Handelsfragen darstellen", sagte Brezinschek. Österreich und Europa sollten zeigen, "wir können noch etwas positives draus machen" und "nicht bei den Zöllen auf die Amerikaner hinzeigen". Die EU und die USA sollten sich stärker zusammenschließen, so der Aufruf des Fachmanns.

  

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Economics: There are a few outliers, but most recent data suggest that global manufacturing growth and goods pricing will pick up in H2. Regionally, Europe is looking more normal but China still vulnerable due to trade conflict. Our economists haven’t lowered global growth numbers on trade because a strong US is offsetting a weaker China, but they are on watch that lower confidence will depress capex relative to strong profits growth.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity strategists continue to recommend using trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity, expecting robust growth fundamentals in H2. They believe that the widespread concerns around the yield curve’s flattening are premature. In fact, they suggest that the eventual sell signal may not even work this time round. Usually, the curve inversion reflects the tightening monetary conditions and worsening credit backdrop. However, the curve could invert in this cycle purely because it was so desynchronized regionally. Germany and Japan are in a sense anchoring the long end of the US yield curve. Their work suggests that the current shape of the yield curve is consistent with double-digit equity performance over the next 12 months. The yield curve has always tended to flatten once the Fed started to hike, and the stocks didn’t tend to peak until after the yield curve got outright inverted. Furthermore, equities tended to move higher for almost a year after the outright inversion. They think that there is a good possibility that the curve steepens next before it ultimately inverts. This could happen if trade tensions ease in 2H and if growth accelerates at the same time. Finally, bank balance sheets are capital rich, HY spreads well behaved, and lending standards keep easing.

JPMorgan

  

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Let’s spend less time looking at the yield curve and more time looking at the economic data. Everyone who talks about late cycle and a recession coming soon should take a look at this. The US economy is producing the highest number of jobs in the manufacturing sector since 1998. This confirms the overarching investment theme across all asset classes today: The risks of overheating and overshooting inflation are much higher than the risks of a recession. In fact, this is the entire reason the Fed is so keen on raising rates a lot more from current levels.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• There is little doubt that corporate activity has increased significantly this year, boosted by US tax reform and repatriation. But in volume terms, relative to the capitalization of the equity market, the pace of this activity looks much less impressive based on historical standards.
• For example, while the dollar value of global M&A activity stands at $5.6tr YTD on an annualized basis, not far from the record high of $5.8tr seen in 2007, in volume terms it is a third below the 2007 high.
• Announced US buybacks look set to approach one trillion dollars this year if one annualizes their YTD pace, the highest on record. But in volume terms, at 4% of the capitalization of the S&P500 index, this year’s announced US buyback pace is lower than the 6% record high pace seen in 2007 and lower than the 5% post Lehman peak seen in 2012.
• If one looks at net actual buybacks instead rather than gross announced buybacks, the YTD pace of the share count reduction across major US equity indices is almost half of its 2015 high.

JPMorgan

  

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Fed-Chef sieht US-Konjunktur trotz Handelsstreit optimistisch

Trotz des von den USA vom Zaun gebrochenen Handelsstreits stuft US-Notenbankchef Jerome Powell die Risiken für die US-Konjunktur als "ungefähr ausgeglichen" ein.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5465942/FedChef-sieht-USKonjunktur-trotz- Handelsstreit-optimistisch

  

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The reason it is so difficult to quantify the effects of a tariff-driven trade war is that the impact depends on how volumes and prices will react to higher tariffs. Put differently, we don’t know how much demand will fall when prices of solar panels, cars, and soybeans move higher. In economic terms, the problem is that we don’t know the elasticity of demand or the elasticity of supply of the 1000s of products on the tariff list.


Over time, the net effect of the trade war on the US economy will be visible in the hiring decisions of US companies. Looking at the latest employment report it is so far difficult to see any negative effect of the trade war in the macro data. This could, however, be the result of the contemporaneous tailwind to the economy from corporate tax cuts, which just adds another layer of complexity to the quantification of the effects of the trade war on the economy.

 
The bottom line is that so far the macro impact seems to be limited but the anecdotal evidence for washing machines, aluminum, and the auto industry make us worried that negative effects will be showing up in the macro data in the second half of this year. Such a trade war-induced slowdown in GDP growth is the most important downside risk to rates, equities, and the dollar over the coming months, and it would probably be prudent to buy some protection against this scenario.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data

The trade war is having a negative impact on sentiment both for corporates and consumers. But these “soft data” indicators have for the past 18 months been disconnected from the hard data and the disconnect continues; the latest employment report shows that there are no signs of caution in firms’ hiring decisions. Similarly, looking at manufacturing ISM, non-manufacturing ISM, retail sales, and durable goods orders confirms that the economy is not showing signs of slowing down. To conclude that the trade war will in 2018H2 slow down Fed hikes or growth to below potential is based on the assumption that the negative effect of the trade war will be bigger than the positive effect of the corporate tax cuts. Or it is essentially a political forecast of how far the trade war will go from here. So, yes, we worry about any negative effects of the trade war but given the continued strength in the hard data, we continue to believe that the risk of overheating is bigger than the risk of a recession.

Deutsche Bank

  

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>So, yes, we worry about any negative effects of the trade war but
>given the continued strength in the hard data, we continue to believe
>that the risk of overheating is bigger than the risk of a recession.


Der Handelskrieg mag zwar gegen die drohende Überhitzung wirken, vielleicht sogar besser als Zinserhöhungen.
Es gibt allerdings ein Problem: Schießt man mit den Zinsen über das Ziel hinaus, senkt man sie einfach wieder. Den Handelskrieg kann man dagegen nicht kurzfristig einseitig per Deklaration beenden, wenn man wieder mehr Konjunktur braucht.

  

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@realDonaldTrump
China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field...

  

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The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

  

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Alle Währungen stehen falsch, nur der Dollar steht richtig.

Erinnert mich irgendwie an den Geisterfahrer-Witz.

  

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>rein wissenschaftlich ausgedrückt: er hat einen festen
>poscher.

Um mal einen Grünen zu zitieren " Der glaubt des wirklich!"

  

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das blöde an der geschichte ist, dass wir, sollte er die wiederwahl gewinnen, unseren fokus nach osten (russland china japan indien) ausrichten werden müssen, im sinne von wirtschafts- und sicherheitspolitik. als opfergabe könnten wir ungarn polen und tschechien im tausch gegen für uns wichtige zugeständnisse den russen anbieten. mit wir meine ich die eu oder das was von ihr noch übrig ist. wir müssen uns auch auf eine veränderung der NATO einstellen, die ohne usa und türkei in eine neue form der verteidigungsallianz übergehen wird.

  

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>wirtschafts- und sicherheitspolitik. als opfergabe könnten wir
>ungarn polen und tschechien im tausch gegen für uns wichtige
>zugeständnisse den russen anbieten.


Nicht im Ernst!? Das werden die schon selber entscheiden.

  

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>Nicht im Ernst!?<

nicht im ernst, aber irgendwie ein verlockender gedanke.
wer nicht mehr dabei sein will, sollte auf die jährlichen milliarden verzichten und gehen. es wird auch irgendwie so kommen, die eu wird klagen und hohe strafen verhängen, nach einigem hin und her werden sie die jährlichen zahlungen mit den strafen gegenverrechnen. über kurz oder lang wird es mit diesen drei staaten unter derzeitiger führung wohl keine gemeinschaft geben, ob sie das selber entscheiden wollen oder nicht wird dabei keine rolle spielen. alleine bleiben werden sie nicht können, irgendeinem block werden sie sich anschliessen müssen, wer also käme da wohl in frage? die zeit wird es bringen.

  

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>>Nicht im Ernst!?<
>
>nicht im ernst, aber irgendwie ein verlockender gedanke.
>wer nicht mehr dabei sein will, sollte auf die jährlichen
>milliarden verzichten und gehen.


Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein wollen...

  

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>Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein wollen...<

solange sie mehr nehmen als geben wird deine wahrnehmung zu recht bestehen bleiben.

  

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>>Hätte nicht wahrgenommen daß die nicht mehr dabei sein
>wollen...<
>
>solange sie mehr nehmen als geben wird deine wahrnehmung zu
>recht bestehen bleiben.


Dabei fällt mir ein hat es schon mal ein EU-Staat vom Netto-Empfänger zum -Zahler geschafft?

  

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>Dabei fällt mir ein hat es schon mal ein EU-Staat vom Netto-Empfänger
>zum -Zahler geschafft?

Ja, Im Jahr 2000 waren beispielsweise Finnland, Italien und Dänemark Nettoempfänger, die momentan Nettozahler sind.

  

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Letzter Tweet vor dem EU-US-Meeting.

@realDonaldTrump
9 hours ago
The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade. I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade! Hope they do it, we are ready - but they won’t!

  

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How late is the cycle?

Equities typically fall into a bear market around recessions, with the S&P 500 down a median -21%. So 9+ years into the current recovery, market attention is keenly focused on how late the cycle is. Are margins and earnings peaking? Is the flattening 2s10s yield curve pointing to an imminent recession?

 

- What do fundamental metrics indicate as to how advanced the cycle is? The long duration and measures of slack in the labor and output markets unambiguously suggest the cycle is very late. By contrast almost all other indicators, ranging from inflation or cost pressures generated by that limited slack, the cyclical components of demand (housing; durables; and investment spending), confidence, corporate and household leverage, delinquencies and default rates, bank lending standards, margins and earnings, all suggest mid- or in some cases even early-cycle.

 

- The “late” cycle phase when slack is limited can go on for quite long. Limited slack by itself does not end the cycle. What does is either cost pressures that it generates or stretched spending, leverage, overconfidence or other excesses that it has historically coincided with. None of these currently appear to be in place. In the last 3 cycles, the late cycle phase lasted 2-4 years which in the current context would put the next recession potentially as far out as 2021. With core inflation having fallen short of the Fed’s target for 10 years, we expect it to continue to emphasize symmetry around its target and welcome not fret moves above 2%, sticking to its current guidance, possibly moving it up modestly. Moves up in the labor force participation rate, an increase in productivity growth and a higher dollar, all of which are elements of our baseline view, would act to lengthen the cycle.

 

- Getting out early can be costly. Average market returns during the late-cycle phase have not been particularly different from the mid-cycle phase. So historical ex-recession annual price returns of 12% are a reasonable indicator of potential returns in this phase. The timing of the move from late to end cycle is always unclear in real time and if the cycle goes on for longer would imply significant foregone returns amounting for example to median cumulative 42% during the late cycle phase of the last 3 cycles.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Equities have been grinding higher recently, trying their best to ignore adverse trade headlines. US Financials bounced. Regionally, EM equities continued to lag, making fresh year-to-date lows vs DM.
• Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting season will reassure and deliver solid earnings beats. Most investors expect the corporates to use trade concerns as an excuse to reset their guidance and the feeling is that we have already witnessed a raft of profit warnings, but the profit warnings have so far been minimal, significantly below typical for an average reporting season. Consensus expects the S&P500 to deliver ~10% EPS growth, ex tax cut impact. For Europe, the number stands at 8.5%. Ex-Energy, the forecasts drop to just 4% year-on-year. These hurdle rates are subdued in the context of the 10-15% EPS run rate delivered in recent quarters. Top-line growth has been improving in both the US and Europe, which should ease pressure on margins to do the heavy lifting. Euro is turning significantly in favour of exporting sectors. In Q1, the euro was up 15% yoy. In Q2, this hurdle halves to 8%, and the headwind completely disappears in 2H. Out of the early results so far, with 10% of S&P500 having reported, record high proportion (94%) of stocks have beaten expectations and the price reaction post the beats is encouraging. In terms of guidance, our strategists note that 67% of corporates have raised theirs for the full year.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constructive view on equities. They are looking for strong earnings delivery in the current reporting season to provide support to markets. More than a quarter of the companies have reported in the US and Europe to date, and despite a few notable disappointments, results have been quite encouraging. Almost 90% of the companies are beating estimates in the US (the highest proportion of beats since the team started compiling the data in ’09). In Europe as well, results are coming in stronger than the rather subdued expectations. Courtesy of the weaker Euro, the proportion of companies beating on sales has spiked from 45% in Q1 to almost 60% in Q2. The team believes that strong Q2 numbers will set the stage for earnings upgrades into the rest of the year. They also note that the activity backdrop is starting to improve as flash PMIs (based on G3) remain consistent with above trend global growth. Within DM, the team has been advocating OW on US equities, while maintaining a cautious stance on the UK. UK suffers from an adverse growth – policy tradeoff. FX could end up as a “lose-lose” proposition for FTSE100. If GBP moves higher, UK equities will most likely lag, as they traditionally do. If on the other hand, GBP breaks lower from here, it would be due to some tail risk political outcome materializing – such as a hard Brexit or early elections, in which case the traditional inverse correlation between UK equities and the GBP might stop working. Moreover, UK performs relatively better when global equities are falling and when bond yields are moving lower, as it is a defensive high dividend yielding market. In contrast, our strategists believe that global equities will move higher in H2, and expect bond yields to move higher too.

JPMorgan

  

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Equity markets struggled this week despite the strong earnings delivery as trade related concerns resurfaced. At a sector level, Cyclicals underperformed the Defensives in both the US and Europe.

Our Global Equity strategists upgraded EM equities to OW, taking advantage of the 900bp year-to-date underperformance. They believe that USD could start to reverse some of its recent strength, providing support to EM markets. The asset class has witnessed outflows and if the Fed were to skip one of the upcoming quarterly hikes, this could be a positive surprise for EM equities. Further, our strategists believe that the recent Chinese policy easing could lead to growth rebound and they fund the upgrade by cutting Japan. They also upgraded the Mining sector, which has underperformed the broader market 14-15% since June. The sector should be net cash in ’19, it is returning capital, and has 20% EPS upgrade potential with current metal prices. More broadly, they maintain a constructive view on equities and are looking for strong earnings delivery to support markets. More than 60% of the companies have reported in the US and Europe and almost 86% are beating estimates in the US, the highest since at least ’09

JPMorgan

  

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Friday’s 157k jobs headline significantly understates the strength of the July employment report. First, employment in sporting and toy stores fell by 32k, largely because of the Toys “R” Us bankruptcy; while that job loss is real, it tells us little about the underlying labor market trend. Second, a cumulative 59k upward revision to May and June helped push the 3- and 6-month averages above 220k. Third, the composition of job growth was strong, with sturdy gains in cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and temporary help services offset by weaker numbers in less cyclical ones such as education/health and local government. And fourth, a big household survey jobs gain pushed the unemployment rate back down to 3.871%, the underemployment rate U6 down to a new cycle low of 7.5%, and the employment/population ratio up to a new cycle high.

  

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Our overall view is that higher trade barriers are clearly negative from a long-term microeconomic perspective because they make it harder for countries to exploit comparative advantage—i.e., make the things they are good at and import the rest. But from a short-term macroeconomic perspective, it is also true that making the things we are not so good at may require a significant amount of resources, including workers. Especially in trade deficit countries such as the US, the first-order impact on short-term growth and employment is thus not necessarily negative. Trade restrictions can still have adverse macroeconomic effects, but these generally come through secondary channels, such as higher economic policy uncertainty that weighs on investment, lower stock prices, or higher inflation and tighter monetary policy. Our long-term cross-country analysis confirms that trade barriers typically weigh on growth, but the effect is relatively small. So we still think that the trade war is only a moderate downside risk to the US macro outlook unless it escalates much further.

  

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our European equity strategy team have published a note this morning highlighting that with 70% of market cap having reported so far, European Q2 EPS growth is at 5% year-on-year, up from 0% in Q1 and only slightly below the 6% registered earlier in the season. This represents a slight positive surprise relative to consensus expectations for the companies that have reported, which is a good result, given that the sharp deterioration in Euro area growth momentum in Q2 pointed to the risk of a downside surprise. Consensus expects EPS growth to end the earnings season at 2% and then to accelerate to 10% in Q3. Energy, financials and consumer discretionary continue to provide the largest boosts to index-level earnings growth.

Deutsche Bank

  

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US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise

In the wake of the advance Q2 GDP report, comprehensive benchmark revisions, July employment report, and recent developments on the trade front, we have made minor changes to our near-term economic outlook. Most importantly, we now assume that 25% tariffs will be implemented on an additional $200bn of imports from China. Our base case is that these tariffs go into effect in the fall but that tensions are resolved within a few quarters, which should limit the impact on growth and consumer inflation.

With respect to our 2018 forecast, the mark-to-market adjustments that we would have made to account for the recent benchmark revision and employment reports are largely offset by changes that take into account our new base case for trade. Our 2018 real GDP growth (Q4/Q4) forecast remains at 3.0%, reflecting a one-tenth negative impact from trade disruptions offsetting the upward revisions to the data for the first half. Similarly, our core PCE inflation projection remains at 2.1%, which includes a one-tenth bump from tariffs offsetting the downward revision to core PCE in the benchmark revision. Our unemployment rate forecast has been raised a tenth to 3.6% by year-end, which reflects stronger than expected labor force participation in recent employment reports.

We have lowered our 2019 growth forecast by a tenth to 2.4%, largely due to modestly diminished business investment. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.4% for year-end 2019 with core PCE inflation rising to 2.3%. Our 2020 growth forecast is unchanged at 1.3%.

The outlook for the Fed remains the same, as well. We continue to expect quarterly rate hikes through the end of 2019, resulting in the fed funds rate topping out at 3.4% in Q4 of next year.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Donald J. Trump

Verifizierter Account

@realDonaldTrump

I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!

  

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RBI-Ökonom Deuber: Österreich ist von Türkei-Krise wenig betroffen
Türkischer Staat hat wenig Schulden, Staatspleite daher unwahrscheinlich - Wegen hoher Schulden des Privatsektors könnten der Notenbank aber die Devisenreserven ausgehen

Eine Staatspleite der Türkei ist unwahrscheinlich, meint der Leiter der volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Gunter Deuber. Der türkische Staat selbst habe geringe Schulden, sagte Deuber am Samstag im Ö1-"Mittagsjournal". Allerdings hätten der Privatsektor und staatsnahe Konglomerate sehr hohe Schulden im Ausland.
Allein nach der Verhängung von US-Strafzöllen auf Stahl und Aluminium aus der Türkei hat die türkische Währung Lira gegenüber Euro und US-Dollar rund zehn Prozent verloren. Rund 35 Prozent sind es seit Jahresbeginn, darum wird darüber spekuliert, ob die Türkei zahlungsunfähig werden könnte.

"Die Türkei hat bei internationalen Banken Schulden von über 260 Mrd. Dollar (227 Mrd. Euro), die Devisenreserven des Landes liegen aber nur bei ca. 140 bis 150 Milliarden", sagte Deuber. Wenn sich die Kapitalflucht fortsetze, könnten der Notenbank die Devisenreserven ausgehen. Es könnte daher zu Kapitalverkehrskontrollen kommen. Dadurch würden Cashflow-Planungen von Unternehmen durcheinander kommen und Forderungen vielleicht auch abgeschreiben werden müssen.

Staatspräsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan sollte daher möglichst rasch Zinserhöhungen ermöglichen, "vielleicht sogar in einer Notsitzung über das Wochenende", meint Deuber. Gleichzeitig müsste er einen Wirtschaftsabschwung zulassen, um die inflationierte Wirtschaft abzukühlen, und er müsste mit den IWF oder mit politisch nahestehenden Notenbanken kooperieren, so der RBI-Ökonom.

"Österreich ist in dieser Krise sehr wenig betroffen", so Deuber. "Die Türkei ist gerade knapp unter den 20 wichtigsten Ländern im Außenhandel, aber mit einem Handelsvolumen, das maximal ein Prozent des Außenhandelsvolumens betrifft." Österreich exportiere mehr nach Slowenien als in die Türkei. "Auch die österreichischen Banken sind nur mit ca. einer Milliarde Euro in der Türkei direkt engagiert."

  

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• Equities performed well earlier this week, supported by strong earnings, only to surrender some of these gains towards the weekend, partly on the back of rising Turkey concerns. Tech outperformed, while Energy lagged.
• Our Global Equity strategists highlight that investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious and positioning has lightened up considerably. Concerns over trade, CNY weakness, yield curve flattening, liquidity tightening and the health of the cycle continue dominating. Our strategists believe that this combination of cautious sentiment and the reduced risk exposure presents an opportunity for positive surprises if any of the following materialize: 1) trade fears don’t escalate, 2) PMIs move higher in 2H, 3) Chinese growth picks up, 4) corporate outlooks are not cut, 5) Fed slows down the pace of hikes, 6) USD peaks, an 7) curve steepens before ultimately inverting, etc. They believe that the probability of a number of these is much higher than what markets are pricing-in. Despite numerous headwinds, equity performance remains resilient, beating bonds year-to-date by 8% in the US and by 3% in Europe. Our strategists were cautious on EM this year, but have recently upgraded the region to OW. Within DM, they remain OW US vs Europe. Q2 results have been reassuring. Q2 EPS growth has improved sequentially vs Q1 in both the US and in Europe and an above average proportion of companies have revised EPS guidance higher in the US. Topline delivery remains healthy as well, with revenue up 9% y/y in the US and up 6% y/y in Europe

JPMorgan

  

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WIIW-Experte: Türkische Notenbank muss Zinsen deutlich anheben

Richard Grieveson: Leitzins sollte um mindestens 500 Basispunkte steigen - Drohende Pleitenwelle in Immobilien- und Baubranche - Österreich von Lira-Krise kaum betroffen

Die türkische Notenbank muss angesichts der Lira-Krise ein deutliches Signal setzen und den Leitzins kräftig anheben, meint der Türkei-Experte des WIIW (Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche), Richard Grieveson. "Ein Anhebung um rund 500 Basispunkte wäre wahrscheinlich das Minimum", sagte Grieveson am Montag zur APA.
Schon beim Zentralbank-Meeting vor drei Wochen habe der Markt eine Zinserhöhung um 100 Basispunkte, also einen Prozentpunkt, auf 18,75 Prozent erwartet. "Damals hätte das noch gereicht", sagte Grieveson. Die Erwartung der Finanzmärkte sei aber enttäuscht worden. Inzwischen sei noch der Streit mit den USA dazugekommen, "und jetzt gibt es wirklich Panik im Fremdwährungsmarkt". Nun sei ein klares Statement der Notenbank notwendig - wobei es schwer sei zu sagen, welche Erhöhung optimal wäre, die Bandbreite der Analystenmeinungen reiche von 300 bis zu 1.000 Basispunkten.

Dabei gehe es nicht einmal so sehr darum, dass die Höhe der Zinsen ein Problem wäre. Die Inflation betrage rund 16 Prozent, die Realzinsen somit fast 2 Prozent. "Das ist normalerweise genug, sogar ziemlich optimal." Das Problem sei aber, dass die wiederholten Beteuerungen der Regierung, wonach die Zentralbank unabhängig sei, nicht ernstgenommen würden. Die Notenbank habe in den letzten fünf, sechs Jahren zwar die Zinsen immer wieder erhöht, aber immer zu spät und zu wenig. "Das Inflationsziel der türkischen Zentralbank liegt bei 5 Prozent. Das haben sie seit 2011 nie erreicht."

Ein zweiter Schlüsselfaktor für die Lira-Abwertung seien die steigenden Spannungen im politischen Verhältnis der Türkei mit den USA und die offensichtliche Entschlossenheit von Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan, es auf einen Wirtschaftskrieg ankommen zu lassen. "Wenn er diesen Kurs weiter verfolgt, wird die türkische Wirtschaft schwer darunter leiden", sagt der WIIW-Ökonom.

Der dritte wichtige Faktor sei die Straffung der Geldpolitik durch die US-Notenbank. "Die Türkei hat ein hohes Leistungsbilanzdefizit von fünf, sechs Prozent des BIP und sie braucht US-Dollar, um dieses Defizit zu finanzieren. In den letzten zehn Jahren war das relativ einfach zu schaffen, weil die US-Zinsen niedrig waren und es zu viele Dollar auf dem Markt gab." Seit April beginne sich das aber zu ändern.

Dabei gehe es nicht um die Staatsschulden oder die Schulden der privaten Haushalte, deren Verschuldung ebenfalls nicht sehr hoch sei, so Grieveson. "Die Staatsschulden betragen 28 Prozent des BIP, das ist sehr niedrig. Das Budgetdefizit ist mit 2 bis 2,5 Prozent auch nicht sehr hoch."

Problematisch sei aber die Situation der Unternehmen, wobei man zwei Gruppen unterscheiden müsse. Die Exporteure und die Tourismusbranche hätten zwar Schulden in Dollar oder Euro, aber auch Einnahmen in diesen Währungen. Problematisch seien angesichts des Lira-Wertverfalls die Fremdwährungsschulden der Immobilien- und der Baubranche, die ihr starkes Wachstum der letzten Jahre vor allem mit Krediten finanziert hätten. "Diese Firmen haben relativ wenig Einnahmen in Dollar oder Euro und haben nun große Probleme, ihre Schulden zu finanzieren." Es wäre eine Überraschung, wenn es in den nächsten Monaten nicht zu einer Pleitewelle kommen würde, glaubt Grieveson.

Österreichs Wirtschaft sei von der Lira-Krise wenig betroffen. "Der Außenhandel mit der Türkei ist nicht sehr wichtig für Österreich, der Handel mit der Türkei macht nur etwa ein Prozent des österreichischen Außenhandelsvolumens aus." Die wichtigsten Produkte in beiden Richtungen seien Maschinen und Fahrzeuge. Die Türkei habe auch eine Autoproduktion und exportiere z.B. Busse.

Der Bestand der österreichischen Direktinvestitionen in der Türkei sei in den letzten Jahren stark zurückgegangen. 2012 hätten österreichische Unternehmen 13,8 Mrd. Euro an Direktinvestitionen in der Türkei gehabt, dieser Wert sei bis 2016 auf 5,5 Mrd. Euro gesunken. "Ein Teil davon ist auf die Lira-Abwertung zurückzuführen, aber das kann nicht alles sein." Seither hat etwa die OMV ihr türkisches Gaskraftwerk Samsun und ihre Türkei-Tochter Petrol Ofisi verkauft.

Bei seinen Wirtschaftsprognosen für die Türkei habe das WIIW schon bisher eher gedämpfte Erwartungen gehabt und angesichts der jüngsten Entwicklung hätten sich die Aussichten noch verschlechtert, sagte Grieveson. Wenn es der Regierung nicht gelinge, die Märkte zu beruhigen, stehe dem Land möglicherweise eine tiefe Rezession bevor, unter der vor allem der Immobilien- und der Bausektor leiden würden. Das WIIW sieht das Wachstumspotenzial der Türkei bei 3,5 bis 4 Prozent pro Jahr, "aber wenn die Regierung ihre derzeit suboptimale Politik fortsetzt, wird die Türkei dieses Niveau bis 2020 wohl nicht wieder erreichen".

  

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Turkey: What are the risks?

 What has caused the sudden focus on Turkey? The Turkish lira has depreciated by 30% against the USD since early July, while the Turkish sovereign CDS spread has risen above 500bps, a ten-year high and up from 140bps at the start of the year. This sharp deterioration in sentiment is a confluence of three factors, in our view:
 USD strength: the broad USD trade-weighted index TWI has historically been the main determinant of EM asset price performance. EM equities’ sharp swing from 16% outperformance in 2017 to the 11% underperformance so far this year is mostly explained by the turns in the USD (down 7% in 2017, up 6% this year). Country-specific EM stories like Turkey’s are always more likely to materialize when USD strength is putting pressure on EM assets more generally.
 Idiosyncratic imbalances: our Turkish economists highlight that Turkey is particularly dependent on a benign external financing environment, given that its corporate sector has net FX-denominated liabilities of $220bn (25% of GDP), the country is running a large current account deficit (at 6% of GDP) and has net foreign liabilities of 50% of GDP as well as low FX reserve adequacy. In addition, a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policy has led inflation to rise to a 15-year high, putting downward pressure on the currency and increasing concerns about the sustainability of the FX-denominated debt.
 Deteriorating Turkey-US relations: the increased diplomatic tensions between Turkey and the US around the detainment of Pastor Brunson, Turkey’s plans to purchase military hardware from Russia and its position on Syria as well as the resulting US sanctions against Turkey have led to a sharp market re-assessment of Turkey’s ability successfully to deal with the pressures resulting from its structural imbalances at a time of USD strength.
 What is the likely outcome of the situation? Our Turkish economists argue that the most likely scenario is one in which a stabilization in US-Turkey relations (including the Brunson case), domestic monetary tightening (to dampen inflationary pressures), fiscal consolidation as well as external financing (potentially from China or Russia) to help service FX-denominated debt leads to a reduction in the macro stress Turkey is currently experiencing. However, they highlight that a less benign scenario remains possible, in which the US-Turkey stand-off morphs into a full-blown international crisis, potentially involving a loss of Turkey’s access to international capital markets.
What is the contagion risk?
 The risk to the Euro area growth cycle seems manageable: exports to Turkey account for around 3% of total Euro area exports, equivalent to 0.6% of Euro area GDP, which is unlikely to be a major risk factor for Euro area growth momentum. Listed European banks have around €110bn in lending exposure to Turkey. Yet, even this constitutes only 1% over their overall loan book, suggesting that it is unlikely that potential credit losses in Turkey will translate into a meaningful hit to Euro area bank lending. Thus, unless the situation turns into a broader EM crisis (see below), the risk to Euro area growth from the situation in Turkey should be limited.

 The risk of further USD strength: as long as the diplomatic stand-off in Turkey continues, there is a risk that this translates into further upward pressure on the broad USD TWI (due to increased political uncertainty), which could spread stress into the wider EM complex and turn a Turkey-specific problem into a broader EM crisis. However, we do not regard this as likely, given that: (a) our economists still see a partial resolution of the stand-off as the central scenario, as highlighted above; (b) our model for the USD TWI – based on 2-year note yield differentials and the global PMI – suggests the USD has already overshot fair-value and has around 4% downside over the coming months; and (c) our FX strategists argue that the US Treasury could react to further USD upside with FX interventions to reverse the recent strength.
 What is the exposure of European corporates to Turkey? The sector most exposed to Turkey is the banks sector. Our banks analysts highlight that five European banks account for the lions’ share of loan exposure to the country: BBVA (11% of assets), UCG (5%), ING (3%), BNP (2%) and HSBC (<1%). Other exposed European companies include Vodafone, Diageo, BAT and Unilever, but their exposure is minor.
 What are the trade implications?
 Remain overweight European banks, underweight defensives: we have recently upgraded European banks from underweight to overweight, as we believe the sharp slowdown in Euro area growth momentum earlier this year is coming to an end and our models point to upside for the Euro area PMI, the key driver of the sector’s performance, given the reduced drag from EUR strength, easing lending conditions and a more favourable inventory cycle. As we have argued above, the situation in Turkey is unlikely to disrupt this projected improvement in Euro area growth momentum. The key European defensive plays – pharma and food & beverages –, on the other hand, have benefitted from fading US bond yields momentum, USD strength and increased macro uncertainty, outperforming the market by 9% and 7%, respectively, since May. Given our expectation that Turkey will not turn into a systemic problem, that US bond yields will rebound to 3.2% by October and that the USD is set to soften in the near-term, our models now imply downside for both sectors over the coming months. Hence, we have downgraded them from overweight to underweight last week.
 Stocks benefitting from further EUR/USD downside and increased political uncertainty near-term. Over the past couple of days the EUR/USD has continued to weaken in line with its historical inverse relationship to the broad USD TWI. For investors worried about a continued stand-off in Turkey, we highlight European stocks that tend to benefit from EUR/USD weakness in combination with increased European political uncertainty. Our screen features, among others, AB InBev, L’Oreal and Imperial. Conversely, stocks that tend to underperform under these conditions include BBVA, Unicredit and Richemont.

Deutsche Bank

  

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>„Lustig wird investieren dann, wenn die Märkte um 40, 50
>Prozent gefallen sind!“
>
>https://www.gewinn.com/geld-und-boerse/anlagetipps/artikel/lustig-wird-investieren-dann-w enn-die-maerkte-um-40-50-prozent-gefallen-sind/
>
>... zusammengefasst naja, wird wohl am Meisten mit den Büchern
>&Co verdienen.

Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50 m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die 200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen Bankkredit finanziert.


Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.

  

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>>„Lustig wird investieren dann, wenn die Märkte um 40, 50
>>Prozent gefallen sind!“
>>
>>https://www.gewinn.com/geld-und-boerse/anlagetipps/artikel/lustig-wird-investieren-dann-w enn-die-maerkte-um-40-50-prozent-gefallen-sind/
>>
>>... zusammengefasst naja, wird wohl am Meisten mit den
>Büchern
>>&Co verdienen.
>
>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50
>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die
>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>Bankkredit finanziert.
>
>
>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.


P.S.: Aber er nutzt die Journalisten sehr geschickt für seine Eigen-PR aus.

  

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>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit 50
>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um die
>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>Bankkredit finanziert.
>
>
>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.


Um Mißverständnisse zu vermeiden das kommt von hier, falls wer diesen Klasssiker nicht kennt:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker

  

Beitrag dem Admin melden | Urheberrechtsverletzung melden
        

>>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung mit
>50
>>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute sicher um
>die
>>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über einen
>>Bankkredit finanziert.
>>
>>
>>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.
>
>

Angeblich hat er aber auch 160 Wohneinheiten in Frankfurt...

  

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>>>Ich habe 2005 um 74.000 Euro eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung
>mit
>>50
>>>m2 Wohnfläche und Balkon gekauft. Die wird heute
>sicher um
>>die
>>>200.000 Euro kosten. Dabei habe ich einen Teil über
>einen
>>>Bankkredit finanziert.
>>>
>>>
>>>Wahrlich ein big swinging dick.
>>
>>
>
>Angeblich hat er aber auch 160 Wohneinheiten in Frankfurt...

Das geht... Quelle?

  

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Alois Wögerbauer: Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht leicht

Übrigens: Im Wirrwarr tagesaktueller Entwicklungen hilft oft ein Blick auf längerfristige Zeitreihen. Am 15. September 2018 ist der 10-Jahrestag der Pleite von Lehman Brothers - ein Ereignis, das die Finanzwelt fundamental verändert hat. Österreich hat unter der ursprünglich von den USA ‘exportierten’ Finanzkrise überproportional stark gelitten. Die Abhängigkeit von Osteuropa, die massiven Verwerfungen an den Immobilienmärkten, so manches hausgemachte Bankenproblem, in weiterer Folge die Nähe zum Krisenland Italien oder die wirtschaftlichen Verflechtungen mit Russland -- wir waren sozusagen ‘mittendrin statt nur dabei’. Angenommen Sie hätten vor exakt 10 Jahren unseren 3 Banken Österreich-Fonds erworben, so wäre das Kauftiming zwei Wochen vor dem Ausbruch einer Finanzkrise historischer Dimension Unglück in Reinkultur gewesen. Sie wären dann durch manche Krise, mehrere Korrekturen und viele Schwankungen gegangen. Als Lohn hätten Sie heute eine 10-Jahres-Performance von 6,42% p.a. (Quelle ÖKB vom 31. August 2018). Womit wir wieder bei Warren Buffett wären. Investieren ist einfach, aber nicht leicht.

https://boerse-express.com/news/articles/alois-woegerbauer-investieren-ist-einfach-aber-n icht-leicht-44901

  

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A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman

A gauge of bullish and bearish momentum in the U.S. stock market is ringing alarms for strategists at Goldman Sachs. The investment bank’s so-called bull-bear indicator, which examines five market factors, indicates that the likelihood of a bear market occurring is at its highest point since around the mid-1970s

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/be9a7b76-cbb2-3b98-a8c4-3c3e4b691755/a-stock-market-bear-sign al-is.html

  

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While a number of sell-side pundits have last week warned of an imminent market sell-off, our Global Equity strategists have argued that the market internals, bond yield moves and activity indicators are not suggesting this. They believe equities will be stabilizing and advancing into year-end. The resiliency of bond yields is not consistent with the mounting bearish narrative, positioning is light and a range of economic indicators have sequentially improved in the past 1-2 months. Importantly, the dollar is down from August highs and typical indicators of USD liquidity stress are not showing deterioration. Our strategists were bearish on EM in 2018, but have last month turned bullish on the region, based on the expectation of USD peaking and China activity stabilizing. Within DM, their preference stays the US vs Eurozone, despite significant US outperformance. Sector-wise, they believe that Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce into year-end, post the defensive summer leadership.

JPMorgan

  

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Goldman Says Rising U.S. Rates ‘Boiling the Frog’ of Risk Assets

Global investors may be underestimating the headwinds to financial assets posed by U.S. rates, they said. While the real rate on three-month U.S. Treasury bills -- or the nominal rate minus inflation (or inflation expectations) -- remains negative, Goldman forecasts the measure will diverge from other real rates in the developed and developing world over the next year-and-a-half.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/goldman-says-rising-u-s-rates-boiling- the-frog-of-risk-assets

  

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"Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gewinnt Trump im Handelskrieg"

Der österreichische Spitzenökonom Gabriel Felbermayr warnt davor, US-Präsident Donald Trump als Spinner abzutun. Doch Gegenwehr zu Strafzöllen sei richtig und werde noch richtiger, wenn es die ganze Welt tut.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5498935/Ohne-Gegenmassnahmen-gewinnt-Trum p-im-Handelskrieg

  

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Many market participants are now anticipating a recession by 2020 or 2021. This narrative is reflected in the signal from the flattening yield curve and inversion in some forward measures of market expectations for the fed funds rate. It is also supported by historical experience. Indeed, the Fed has never been able to achieve a soft landing from below, that is, return unemployment back up to its natural rate without causing a recession. While we expect growth to slow in 2020, at the risk of declaring that “this time is different”, we think the Powell Fed has a reasonable shot at making history by achieving a soft landing. This piece lays out our case.The Fed has several things going for it. A major one is the absence of a significant overhang of investment in durables and structures and related financial imbalances, which have usually triggered or amplified downturns in the past. Next are a relatively flat Phillips curve and favorable supply-side trends that could diminish inflation risks and allow the Fed to move more cautiously. Reduced US sensitivity to potential oil market shocks also helps.The most obvious risk to the soft landing scenario is that overheating causes the Fed to tighten more aggressively which tips the economy into a recession. However, there is also the risk that productivity could surprise significantly to the upside, allowing both the labor market to equilibrate smoothly and the economy to expand at a more elevated pace for some time to come.For the Fed, the issue of how this cycle may end becomes increasingly important ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting when it extends its projections to 2021. Consequently, the Fed must ponder what signal to give the market about its intentions to begin eventually to return the labor market toward more sustainable levels.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Equity markets are staging a rebound with all key regions in the green. Cyclicals are strongly outperforming the Defensives in both the US and in Europe.
• Our Global Equity strategists argued that bond yields were likely to break out higher from their summer ranges and have addressed the implications of this for equities. The call is based on potential stabilization in EM and Eurozone activity in the year end, as well as accelerating wages in all key regions. They believe that equities will embrace higher bond yields, as the valuation cushion remains substantial and the correlation between bond and equity prices remains strongly inverse. Furthermore, bond yields direction is important for market internals, in their view. If yields move higher, the summer outperformance of Defensives – Staples, Pharma and Utilities in particular – is likely to stall. They believe Cyclicals will rebound and find Mining, Semiconductors, Autos and Capital Goods particularly attractive.

JPMorgan

  

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• This week marks the 10-year anniversary of the global financial crisis and the big sell-off in oil prices from an all-time high of over $146/bbl in July 2008. Our oil strategists think that Iran’s oil supply risk will likely overpower risks of demand softness emanating from higher oil prices and US-China trade tensions. As a consequence, they raised 4Q18 Brent by $22/bbl to $85/bbl and 2019 Brent by $20.5/bbl to $83.5/bbl. The team thinks that if US were to push for Iranian exports to be driven down zero, then that could push prices well above $90/bbl in the very short term. The team expects the WTI-Brent differential to reduce on the back of increased pipeline takeaway capacity being added in 2019 and slowdown in US supply growth by late 2018/early 2019.

JPMorgan

  

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ie von der Metallergewerkschaft erhobene Forderung nach einer Erhöhung der Löhne um fünf Prozent ist nach Ansicht von Nationalbankgouverneur Ewald Nowotny "nicht besonders überschießend". Das Wachstum liege heuer bei ungefähr drei Prozent und die Inflation bei etwa zwei Prozent, das ergebe ein nominelles Wachstum von rund 5 Prozent, erklärte Nowotny in der ORF-"Pressestunde" am Sonntag.

Normalerweise ist aber nicht das nominelle Wachstum relevant, sondern die Produktivitätszunahme (siehe auch Benya-Formel). Wofür war der nochmal Professor?

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5501371/Nowotny_Fuenf-Prozent-Lohnforderu ng-nicht-besonders-ueberschiessend

  

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RBI-Brezinschek: Gute Aussichten für Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte
Allerdings viel politischer Gegenwind - Wirtschaftliches Umfeld relativ stabil - Österreich erhält Unterstützung aus CEE - Kaufempfehlung für Aktien

Gute Aussichten für die Wirtschaft und die Finanzmärkte in Österreich und Osteuropa in den kommenden drei bis sechs Monate ortet der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek. Allerdings bewege man sich in einem Umfeld mit "viel politischem Gegenwind", sagte Brezinschek am Freitag bei der Vorstellung der Kapitalmarktstrategie für das vierte Quartal in Wien.
Für Gegenwind sorgen vor allem die Handelskonflikte der USA - besonders mit China, die Krisen in den Schwellenländern, Staatsfinanzkrisen und die diversen Sanktionen der USA etwa gegen Russland, den Iran oder die Türkei. Negativ betroffen könnten die Wirtschaftsaktivitäten auch vom Ausgang der Brexit-Verhandlungen oder den umstrittenen Budgetplänen in Italien werden, wo "wider aller Vernunft" agiert werde.

Dennoch zeige sich das globale konjunkturelle Umfeld relativ stabil, so habe etwa die US-Notenbank erst kürzlich ihre Wachstumsprognose für 2018/19 angehoben. Für 2019/20 müsste man schon vorsichtiger sein. Auch in der Eurozone gebe es mit einem durchschnittlichen Wachstum von 2,0 Prozent in 2018 noch immer einen guten konjunkturellen Verlauf. Für 2019 erwartet Brezinschek eine Abflachung auf 1,5 bis 1,7 Prozent.

Österreich steche mit 1,7 bis 1,9 Prozent positiv hervor. Starke Unterstützung erhalte Österreich aus Zentral- und Ost- und Südosteuropa, wo die Wirtschaft heuer im Schnitt um 4,2 Prozent und kommendes Jahr um 3,5 Prozent wachsen werde. Grund dafür sei hauptsächlich der starke private Konsum, der auf extrem festen Arbeitsmärkten basiere. Als "wenig ambitiös" bewertet Brezinschek die Fiskalpolitik sowohl global als auch in Europa.

Brezinschek hält eine weitere Eskalation des Handelskonfliktes zwischen der USA und China für möglich. 267 Mrd. US-Dollar an Handelsvolumen seien bisher noch nicht mit Zöllen belegt. Verhandlungslösungen erwartet der Experte erst für 2019. Der Konflikt werde das Wachstum bremsen und zu Preisanhebungen führen. Noch sehe man laut US-Notenbank aber nichts davon.

Die Probleme in den Schwellenländern entstehen dadurch, dass das Kreditwachstum stark über das Ausland und in US-Dollar finanziert werde, durch Protektionismus, hohe Leistungsbilanzdefiziten und Inflationsraten. Das führe zu einer Vertrauenskrise und Währungsverfall, weil sich die Geldgeber um ihre Rückzahlungen sorgten. "Überall sieht man das gleiche Muster", so Brezinschek. Nach Zentral- und Osteuropa gebe es kaum Übertragungseffekte, weil man dort diese Thematik nicht habe.

In den USA erwartet der RBI-Chefanalyst bis Mitte 2019 noch drei Zinsanhebungen und damit um eine weniger als die US-Notenbank selbst. In der Eurozone stelle sich die Frage, ob die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) weiter in ihrer Komfortzone bleibe und erst im zweiten Halbjahr mit Leitzinssenkungen beginne, was von Rahmenbedingungen wie Inflations- oder Ölpreisentwicklung abhänge. Dieses Datum dürfte aber festgezurrt sein. Die EZB sollte aber nicht schon wieder den Fehler machen wie vor der Finanzkrise und mehr Geld zur Verfügung stellen, als für Kredite gebraucht werde. Zumindest der negative Zinssatz für die Bankeinlagen sollte deshalb schon vorher angehoben werden.

Für Anleger bedeute dies, dass in der Eurozone der negative Realzins über 2019 hinaus bestehen bleiben werde. Ein besseres Umfeld gebe es dafür in CEE.

Für die Aktienmärkte sind laut Brezinschek die Aussichten durchaus positiv. Auch für 2019 liege das nominelle Gewinnwachstum allgemein im zweistelligen Prozentbereich. Auch die Dividendenrendite sei im Vergleich zu Fremdkapitalzinsen extrem hoch und höher als etwa für BB-geratete Anleihen. "Das ist eine seltsame Situation", so Brezinschek.

Bernd Maurer, Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB), sieht trotz bereits neunjähriger Aktienhausse in den USA keine unmittelbare Trendwende. Man befinde sich in einem "Trading Markt", in dem die Aktienkurse um 10 bis 15 Prozent auf und ab schwanken. Derzeit befinde man sich eher am unteren Rand dieser Bandbreite. Österreich-Aktien habe man wieder auf "Kauf" hochgestuft. Empfohlen werden etwa die Aktien von Wienerberger, Palfinger, EVN, Telekom, OMV, SBO, VIG oder Erste Group. Auch für das erste Halbjahr 2019 ist Maurer noch optimistisch. Die Kaufempfehlung der RCB erstreckt sich praktisch über alle analysierten Märkte.

  

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„Schieferfelder sind relativ rasch leer gepumpt“

Die geopolitischen Spannungen hinterlassen auch Spuren auf dem Ölmarkt. Der Fondsmanager Mark Hume von Black Rock rechnet deshalb mit weiter steigenden Preisen. US-Schieferöl sieht er nicht als Allheilmittel.

Die Presse: Nachdem das Ölkartell Opec nicht auf Trumps Forderung nach einer höheren Produktion einging, sprang die Notierung auf 80 Dollar. Haben die geopolitischen Konflikte nun auch den Ölmarkt erreicht?

Mark Hume: Auf jeden Fall, wobei der Konflikt zum denkbar ungünstigsten Zeitpunkt aufflammt. Derzeit sind nämlich die freien Kapazitäten von rund 2,5 Millionen Fass pro Tag auf ein Zehn-Jahres-Tief gesunken. Das sind knapp mehr als zwei Prozent der weltweiten Nachfrage von 100 Millionen Fass pro Tag. Auf diese Kapazitäten, die Großteils aus Saudiarabien kommen, wird bei Engpässen zugegriffen, um Preisausschläge zu vermeiden. Allerdings gibt es Zweifel, ob sie in vollem Ausmaß zur Verfügung stehen. Da gießen neue US-Sanktionen gegen den Iran weiteres Öl ins Feuer.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/energie/5505946/Schieferfelder-sind-relativ-rasch-l eer-gepumpt

  

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• Our Global Equity strategists have a few weeks ago called for bond yields to break higher, and see this move likely to drive a change in market internals. While at the market level the initial reaction might be cautious, as investors adjust to the new yields regime, they believe that equities will be able to absorb higher yields. The correlation between equity and bond prices remains strongly inverse. Looking at past instances of a sharp move higher in yields, they find that equity markets generally performed well. At a sector level, higher yields would favour the outperformance of commodity Cyclicals such as Miners, and Financials. Within Financials though, they remain unexcited by Banks given their cautious stance on the Italian political situation. Our strategists believe that US banks are a better bet than Eurozone Banks, and would also favour Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields. Defensives such as Staples, UK/UK Utilities and Real Estate are likely to be the losers of higher yields. Within DM, they keep OW on US stocks over Eurozone. Relative growth, buybacks and earnings trends continue to favour the former. Eurozone multiples don’t offer much support in a relative context, sector adjusted, and political environment is likely to stay challenging.

JPMorgan

  

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Why are retail investors still cautious?

• The equity fund buying by retail investors worldwide reached $300bn during the first three quarters of the year.
• But half of this flow took place in January alone. So between February and September this year, less than $20bn per month was invested into equity mutual funds and ETFs globally.
• Such a pace is weak because it barely reflects the reinvestment of dividends. Effectively outside the reinvestment of dividends, there has been no fresh money being deployed by retail investors into equity funds since the February correction.
• What explains this persistent cautious stance by retail investors?
• We believe that the main reason is that retail investors are overweight equities already and after buying a substantial $780bn of equity funds between January 2017 and January 2018 they have become more reluctant.

JPMorgan

  

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US-China tension and US equity selloff

We highlighted on Monday that the relations between China and the US deteriorated quickly in the past few weeks, and the market has not fully recognized the potential damage to US and Chinese firms. One month ago we expected the Chinese government to refrain from targeting US business interest in China. But after the speech by US Vice President Pence we see a rising risk that the trade war may be escalated to an economic war beyond trade. US business interests in China may be subject to retaliation if the US moves beyond tariff. Many US multinationals depend on China's market as a major revenue source.
The official visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Beijing on Monday reinforces our concerns. His visit only lasted for three hours, the shortest visit by a senior US official to China in history, as far as we know. The messages from his meetings in China indicate the two sides have "fundamental disagreements". Mr. Pompeo did not manage to meet senior leaders such as President Xi, Premier Li, or the Vice President and Vice Premiers. The confrontation between the two sides intensified.
The US equity selloff on Wednesday shows the market may have finally started to price in this risk. We think the selloff makes the Chinese government more likely to follow a "wait and see" strategy. With neither side willing to compromise, the bilateral relation will likely deteriorate further, causing more pains for firms in China and the US.

Deutsche Bank

  

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European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling told CNBC that it was unfair to make comparisons between Italy amid concerns on its deficit plans and Greece at the height of its debt crisis, as the former has always been in a much better situation due to its relatively smaller deficits, current account surplus and high private sector savings.

  

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The "tax twist" is a big deal

Here is how the “tax twist” worked.

Step 1: One trillion of US corporate profit repatriation. US tax reform resulted in all offshore corporate profits being “deemed” repatriated and relieved of future tax liabilities. This in turn resulted in a record-breaking 1 trillion dollar shift of US corporate earnings to their onshore entities. The shift had no currency impact – the liquidity was already held in short-dated dollar assets but merely recorded offshore from an accounting perspective. It happened all in one go in the first half of the year.

Step 2: US corporates liquidate their dollar deposits . One of the unusual features of this Fed hiking cycle has been rising money market rates over and above the increase in Fed fund rates. This can be most clearly seen in rising Libor – OIS spreads earlier this year. Part of this rise is attributable to the surge in treasury bill issuance. But spreads rose in commercial paper and front-end credit where most of offshore US corporate liquidity resided too. Just as the Fed started raising the risk-free rate, US corporates abandoned dollar liquidity. What did US corporates do?

Step 3: US corporate buybacks soar, the first twist. The bulk of corporate repatriation was deployed in equity buybacks. S&P 500 purchases have soared to the highest on record this year and we project will reach $800bn by year-end. To the extent that US corporate dollar liquidity was sitting unused in short-dated assets, this deployment of cash constitutes one of the largest risk transfers in the history of financial markets.

Step 4: Pension funds rotate from equities to bonds, the second twist. Our fixed income colleagues have documented the pension fund rotation dynamic well. US pensions are over-weight equities and stock out-performance this year has led to large liquidation of their holdings, in turn deployed into long-dated US bonds. This buying can best be seen in the record-breaking size of stripped treasuries, the preferred habitat of US pension funds. The surprising yield curve flatness this year can be mainly attributed to the pension phenomenon representing a price-insensitive removal of fixed income duration from the market equivalent to Fed QE.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Update on Market Moves

Wednesday’s selloff was largely technical in nature, with systematic strategies following the same selling template as in the Feb 5th selloff. Fundamental fears this time were about rising yields and the Fed’s more hawkish stance, which we wrote about last week. In terms of systematic strategies that drove the selloff – by far the biggest selling pressure was from option gamma hedging on Wednesday. This risk is now balanced, and can turn into a positive impact, i.e. option hedgers buying equities. For instance, if the market were to hold its gains during the day, it could result in a squeeze higher by end of the day from gamma hedging flows. Other large selling flows were from CTAs that started in indices such as Russell 2000 and Nasdaq last week, eventually spreading into the S&P 500 on Wednesday. CTA selling tends to be relatively fast and is likely largely behind us given the already low CTA equity beta, and the fact that 12M momentum on S&P 500 will most likely hold positive (>2550). The remaining part of systematic selling is from volatility targeting (insurance, parity funds, etc.) which will go on for several more days.

JPMorgan

  

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JPMorgan: The dip should be bought

Equities suffered a sharp pullback this week, very similar to the February flash crash experience. Technology and Cyclicals lagged, while Value and Defensives performed better. Regionally, US fell as much as the other markets.

Ahead of the February equity selloff, bond yields spiked, and the same was repeated this time again. Our Global Equity Strategists have argued last month that bond yields were bound to break out higher, but beyond knee-jerk initial volatility, they think that the inverse bonds-equities correlation will continue to hold. In this way, bond yields act as a cushion for stocks. Also, what is encouraging is that USD is not moving higher, and the EM FX index is holding the lows made in early September. A significant amount of selling was due to position squaring, where investors exited both the longs and the shorts in their books, and that is why some of the worst performers year-to-date – UK Banks and Telecoms – bounced. The unwind of momentum strategies played an important role, too. Similar to February, our strategists believe that the dip should be bought. Regionally, they expect improvement on the Chinese data front and the bottoming out in EM FX to help EM equities. Within DM, they remain OW US vs Europe, and in particular they stay away from the UK. UK is a “lose-lose” proposition on Brexit outcome given GBP dynamics. They are still bearish on UK domestic plays, but think the time is coming to add to them, once the Brexit deal is signed off.

JPMorgan

  

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such a trade war = “nur” wechselseitige Zölle

The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be large on global growth as the tariff burden will likely be spread across US consumers and importers, Chinese exporters, and suppliers from other countries who are part of the global supply chain network. However, the indirect impact via dampened business sentiment and delays in investment could be large. In addition, a protracted trade war raises risks of disruption or restructuring of the global supply chain in the coming years and the risk of a broader pullback in global confidence. On the China side, we estimate that if the tariff burden is evenly distributed between Chinese exporters and US importers, a full-scale tariff war will drag China’s growth by 1%pt, including a 0.3%pt direct impact via weaker trade activity and 0.7%pt indirect impact on consumption and investment via the income effect and hit on business confidence. We expect the Chinese government will react with a modestly larger CNY depreciation and additional fiscal and monetary policy support to keep growth at 6.1% in 2019 (versus forecast of 6.6% in 2018) and in the meantime, reduce the growth target in 2019 to a 6%-6.5% range (versus around 6.5% in 2018). In particular, we expect augmented fiscal deficit will increase by 0.5%pt of GDP in 2019, TSF growth will bottom up by 1% supported by three 50bp RRR cuts between 4Q18 and 2Q19. On the US side, we look for the tariffs to reduce US GDP growth by 0.2%pt or less and boost core inflation by 0.2-0.3%pt, while acknowledging downside risks of larger disruption if business confidence suffers more than expected. On the other side, the revenues raised by the tariff will help reduce the 2019 forecast of the federal budget deficit from US$1 trillion to US$900 billion.

JPMorgan

  

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Global Equity Strategy View

Trade uncertainty, in particular the US-China leg, is one of the key overhangs for investor sentiment, but despite this, we are constructive on global equities into year end. The view is based on a still accommodative DM central bank policy stance, well-behaved credit markets, robust earnings growth and signs of stabilization in EM/Eurozone activity, in addition to continued strong US dataflow. On top of this, we find the investor positioning to be much lighter than it was at the start of the year and equities have experienced a significant multiple compression, of the order of 10%. Investor complacency has evaporated, with most now fully expecting the trade backdrop to get worse before it can get any better. The bar for a positive surprise is therefore much lower currently. EM and China equities have already fallen more than 20% from the January peaks. We had entered the year with a cautious view on EM equities which was very non-consensus at the time but have upgraded in the summer. Unlike the expensive valuations in 2015, Shanghai composite P/E is near 15-year lows currently and Chinese policy response is stepping up. Another key regional tilt we have is to remain OW US vs European equities within developed markets despite what is an already significant European underperformance. There is very limited visibility on future trade developments, but we note that the latest developments on the US-Canada-Mexico trade negotiations were encouraging. Finally, seasonals are turning positive now for stocks.

JPMorgan

  

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und den anderen vielleicht helfen:

Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China

US China relations have deteriorated quickly in the past two weeks. Regardless of what happens at the G20 meeting on Nov 30, the bilateral relationship is unlikely to return to the pre-trade-war mode. Even if the two sides agree to avoid escalation for now, the bilateral relationship will likely stay under stress in coming years, with risk on the downside. The extensive news coverage in the past week with reference to a "new cold war" is a clear sign of such risk.
This political development puts US business interests in China at a disadvantaged position for the coming years. The CEOs of US firms have to consider the downside risk of US China relations as a constraint on their operations in China. China has so far refrained from hurting US business interests in China, but this does not mean they will do so under all circumstances. The political pressure from the US will likely weigh in as well, as evidenced by the questions Google received about Project Dragonfly at a US Senate hearing on Sept 26.
In contrast, the CEOs of other foreign firms face a brighter future than their US peers in China.
 On Oct 10, BMW announced a deal to raise their share in their joint venture in China, Brilliance Auto (1114.HK) , to 75% from 50%. This makes BMW the first foreign car maker to own a majority share in a joint venture in China. BMW sold more cars in China than in the US and Germany combined last year. Their SUVs are made in US, hence the US-China trade war has adversely affected their business in China. BMW will invest US$ 4.2bn to build new facilities in China, and promised to eventually make all electric X3 series in China.
 On Oct 12, a group of entrepreneurs and retired senior officials from China and Japan met in Beijing and released a joint statement, ahead of the first official visit by Japanese Prime Minister Abe to China on Oct 25. The statement shows many positive signals for bilateral economic relations. Two interesting issues stand out: (1) The statement shows high expectation for the free trade agreements being negotiated in the Asia Pacific region. Both governments already showed interest in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). (2) Japanese and Chinese firms will collaborate in "one-belt-one-road" projects.

 This change is a big deal for the multinationals

 China is already the largest market for many manufactured goods such as cars. For many others such as airplanes, China is the second largest but widely expected to become the first in the foreseeable future. The US China trade war will lead to a further opening up of the market to foreign firms, as evidenced by the BMW deal. The strategic position in this market is critical for multinationals' performance in the next ten years.
 To put this into perspective,the US firms' subsidiaries in China sold US$182bn of manufactured goods in 2016, according to the latest US Bureau of Economic Analysis survey. To be clear, these goods were made and sold in China, hence not counted as part of the US exports to China ($116bn in 2016). The tariff war has not affected them so far. For US multinationals in the manufacturing industry, China accounts for 51% of the growth for their global sales outside the US in this period.
 European and Japanese firms have smaller operations than the US firms in China, but this may change in the next ten years. In 2015, the European firms sold $138bn of manufactured goods through their local subsidiaries in China, Japanese sold $152bn, and the US sold $182bn.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Our Global Equity strategists believe that the inverse bonds-stocks prices correlation will not break down. Indeed, the correlation normalized very quickly which, in their view, will act as an automatic cushion for the market. Also, they note that when VIX spikes, such as what happened last week, equities are higher 90+% of the time over the next 6 and 12 months, outside recessions. For the recession to become a base case, one needs to see a sharp deterioration in the labor market. They expect Q3 results to be challenging, as analysts’ expectations are high and activity has decelerated and they think this will be a much bigger problem in Europe than in the US. Within the DM, they keep OW on US vs Europe. Within Europe, they believe periphery – Italy – will continue underperforming. They stay OW Tech vs Banks, and exporters vs domestic plays

JPMorgan

  

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With majority of systematic selling behind (~80%), more attractive valuations and still strong fundamentals, the team believes the recent sell-off is a temporary correction. The recent sell-off is similar to the one in February with technicals largely driving the market lower. Similarly, the decline came at a time when market depth was very poor, and more than 2/3rd of corporates were in earnings blackout. Investors were already positioned defensively before this correction; this leaves more room for an easier bounce back led by mega-cap cyclical and secular growth helping lift the market higher. We find the current equity multiple attractive at only 15.5x (ex-cash ~14.8x based on 2019 earnings), which is below the long-term average of 16.0x in an environment where global rates are still low and equity supply continues to shrink (the S&P 500 divisor fell to levels last seen in 2001). In their view, Small-caps has the best risk-reward—earnings are expected to grow by 21% NTM (vs. 11% for large-caps) but trade at the same multiple. They remain positive on Small-caps given their higher domestic footprint, disproportionate benefit from pro-growth policies and deregulation, stronger organic growth, and M&A

JPMorgan

  

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Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved? The consensus outlook is still that growth will be 2.5% - 3% for the coming 12 months. The earnings outlook is strong, ISM is strong, employment growth is strong, wage and income and hence topline growth are trending higher, and the Fed is sending signals that several more rate hikes are coming. And the slowdown in housing happens from a level that is very low with housing only 4% of GDP today. In other words, the imbalances in the housing market are much smaller than in 2006. Put differently, the potential for a big correction in housing – and hence in GDP – is limited given that we are already at a low level of housing starts and permits, in particular when taking demographics and household formation into account. The bottom line is that the ongoing correction in the stock market does not seem to be driven by fundamentals or a change in the outlook for fundamentals.  

Deutsche Bank

  

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We remain bullish on the US economic outlook, but some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex. It looks like the corporate tax cut didn’t provide much additional boost to capex spending. And it remains to be seen if the recent capex slowdown is temporary or driven by more permanent worries such as the trade war. In the near term, there are some downside risks to ISM and headline nonfarm payrolls later this week, but we still expect more upward pressure on wages. If we do enter such a period of “Temporary Stagflation” the Fed will obviously be in a very difficult situation.

Deutsche Bank

  

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When you look at the yields of 2, 5, or 10-year rates you need to keep in mind that the total outstanding stock of Treasuries behind those yields is $10trn higher today than it was before the financial crisis, see chart below. The increase in the supply of Treasuries is attracting dollars that would otherwise have gone into IG, Loans, HY, mortgages, etc. With trillion dollar deficits continuing the risks are rising that there will not be enough dollars for risky assets given the enormous increase in the stock of risk-free assets yielding a higher return as the Fed continues to raise rates. In particular in a situation where global QE is coming to an end. In sum, the supply of risk-free fixed income is growing and demand for fixed income is shrinking. This all points to higher rates and wider credit spreads.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Global equity markets rebounded strongly this week, supported by positive newsflow on the trade front, and an improvement in earnings delivery vs the early part of the Q3 reporting season. At a sector level, Cyclicals are bouncing versus the Defensives, with Miners strongly outperforming in both the US and in Europe.
• Our Global Equity strategists reiterated their call of buying into the October correction. Positioning has become very negative and VIX has produced a buy signal. The sentiment over the China outlook, and the global cycle prospects, is too bearish, in their view. The compromise on trade gets more likely as US equities are not decoupling from global anymore. Our strategists are encouraged by the resilient trends in EM FX, which appears to have bottomed in early September, and some peaking in USD. They remain OW US vs European equities, expecting US results to do better than the European ones. Chinese policy response is stepping up and should be evident in dataflow from October. The summer underperformance of Miners is overdone in their view, and they argued one should be buying into the sector. Iron ore price is steadily moving higher, up 30% in last two months and key industrial metal inventories are close to the bottom of the range. Miners earning have the potential to see upgrades to the tune of 10% for 2019e and as much as 20% for 2020e. Miners have far better balance sheets and cash flow generation currently vs the ’15 episode. Finally, our strategists note that there are important benefits of owning Miners at this stage of the cycle. Inflation is moving higher and Miners are a good hedge.

JPMorgan

  

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Today is the NYC marathon, and it is relevant to ask the question if the US economy is on a sugar high. The answer is no. The structural underpinnings of the US economy are very strong. To stay in the medical world improving oxygen intake, uptake, and assimilation is critical as an inhibitor to disease and decay. Put differently, the US economy is better than any other economy in the world at converting labor and capital inputs into products and services and ultimately household income. Specifically, in the US it is easier to fire and hire workers, there is more competition in product markets, and much less red tape for businesses.

 

One way to quantify the underlying strength of the US economy is to subtract from the current 3% growth rate the CBO-estimated fiscal boost of 0.7% from the corporate tax cuts. This brings us to an underlying US growth rate of 2.3% (=3% minus 0.7%). Try to compare that with any other G7 country, including Europe.

 

The bottom line is that growth is not driven by fiscal and monetary policy. Fiscal and monetary policy can temporarily boost or slow growth. The real driver of growth and higher household incomes is an economy’s ability to start new companies and invent new products and services. From this perspective, the US economy is the world leader. Unfortunately, Europe, Japan, and EM still have a long way to go as also evidenced by numerous structural and institutional indicators from the OECD, World Economic Forum, and the World Bank’s just-released Ease of Doing Business survey.

 

In short, enjoy the marathon, the US economy remains the most competitive economy in the world.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Two competing narratives

There are two competing narratives in markets at the moment with very different investment implications.

The first narrative is the story that economic growth is strong and earnings are good, and the consensus expects this to continue as the tailwind from the corporate tax cut continues. The investment implications of 3% GDP growth for the next four quarters is that short rates will move higher, long rates will move higher, IG credit spreads will narrow, HY credit spreads will narrow, leveraged loans will perform well, and equities will perform well.

The second narrative in markets is the story that global QE is coming to an end and the US is issuing a lot more Treasuries, which taken together means less demand for global fixed income and much more supply of risk-free assets, which overall means less appetite among investors for buying risky assets. The investment implications of this is higher short rates, higher long rates, wider IG credit spreads, wider HY spreads, and lower equities.

So far markets have for a while traded based on the first “strong economy” narrative, i.e. that the economy is strong so risk-free rates should move higher and risky assets should move higher.

Looking ahead we and the Fed and consensus continue to see robust above-trend GDP growth for the coming 4-6 quarters with the Fed hiking rates five more times before the end of 2019. And we see long rates moving up to 3.5% by the end of 2018. As long as inflation remains contained and growth is solid equities will do well. But IG credit is more vulnerable because it has acted as a substitute for Treasuries for many foreigners who now are faced with significantly higher hedging costs.

The bottom line is that we see volatility higher, rates gradually higher, credit spreads gradually wider, and equities higher. But with core PCE inflation already at 2.0%, these views are becoming more sensitive to how much inflation will overshoot 2%. If inflation overshoots the 2% target by more than the Fed expects then the Fed can no longer allow itself to be slow, gradual, and cautious. Which would imply a more volatile period for markets, in particular for fixed income, as investors begin to price inflation risk premia in ways we have not seen for the past decade.

In sum, the “strong economy” narrative still dominates the “liquidity withdrawal” narrative. And the risk to the economic narrative is not a recession but instead overheating and an associated overshoot in inflation.

Deutsche Bank

  

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We believe (out of consensus) that a split Congress is the best outcome for US and global equity markets. Policies of the US administration in 2017 were strongly pro-business (we pointed that out in 2016). However, in 2018, policies of the US administration were strongly anti-business (trade war, protectionism, subsidies, etc.). We believe that if we had a “red wave,” the administration might have seen it as an endorsement of the trade war, and attempt to mitigate the breakdown in global trade with more US fiscal expansion (e.g., 10% middle-income tax break, etc.). As the President cannot count on Congress or the Fed for more easing, he will need to do what is in his power to keep the economy rolling – drop the damaging trade war and turn it into a winning deal.

JPMorgan

  

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Lower oil prices is good news

macro impact of lower oil and higher dollar. When this happened from 2014 to 2016 the result was higher S&P500 and essentially unchanged GDP growth, see chart below. Late cycle worries are misplaced, lower oil prices will extend the economic expansion further because it is good news for consumers and for energy-consuming companies. And a higher dollar will be holding down US inflation at a time when the economy is close to overheating. In sum, lower oil prices and a higher dollar is exactly what the doctor ordered for the US economy if you want the expansion to continue and the Fed to be gradual.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Outside the UK, our Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equities, where the US remains well supported by record buybacks and the strong earnings delivery. Q3 results have improved meaningfully since the start of the season, in both the US and in Europe. US continued to outpace Europe, delivering an exceptional +27%y/y Q3 EPS growth, the strongest since 2010. Despite noise around trade and macro weakness, the reporting season was overall relatively upbeat, with greater than typical share of companies revising guidance higher. Furthermore, sales growth stayed elevated at +6-8% y/y rate in both the US and Europe, which should ease the pressure on margins to do the heavy lifting.

JPMorgan

  

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• Value stocks have outperformed the broad equity market over the past 40-60 years by some 2-4%, depending on region and metric.
• Value stocks have low prices vs earnings, cash flow, dividends and book value. We define Value as stocks that are in the top 30% by these metrics.
• In this cycle, Value has underperformed in the US, with lower excess returns than before in Europe and APAC. This year, Value has badly underperformed in all regions.
• Current Value weakness is similar to the 1990s, which also saw fast earnings growth, multiple expansion, US buybacks and a tech boom.
• Value has a defensive streak, exhibiting a beta of only 0.87 to the market in the US since 1951, offset by a large “alpha” of 4.2%.
• The next decade promises to us lower earnings growth and multiples in the US, due to high entry points, and thus to us a friendlier environment to Value stocks, as their alpha should dominate their lower beta.
• We advise strategically overweighting Value globally, focused on high E/P, expecting some 1-2% outperformance of the market.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Banks, but reiterated their caution on European Banks. They argued that US Banks could benefit if the Fed were to turn somewhat more dovish. This would steepen the US yield curve, in their view, as the market would then price out the probability that the Fed is making a policy mistake in overtightening. US Banks performance has historically been closely aligned to the move in bond yields, but the gap has opened up since March, as the market became increasingly concerned about the flattening of the yield curve. In addition, Banks stocks in the US should be supported by strong buybacks, next only to the Tech sector. On the other side, our strategists remain cautious on European Banks. These have strongly underperformed the broader market and look cheap; however, the sector is unlikely to sustainably rebound as long as peripheral spreads remain elevated. In addition, flattening Euribor curve has been adding to the pressure on Bank’s NIMs. There are continued downside risks to ECB’s proposed hiking path given the softness in inflation and growth in the region. Within European Financials, they remain OW insurance, preferring it to Banks.

JPMorgan

  

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2018 will mark the year of the great de-rating

The strongest earnings growth (25%) in this cycle, even adjusted for the cut in the corporate tax rate (15%), with the S&P 500 rising only modestly, saw equity multiples de-rate severely (-17%).The market multiple is near 5-year lows seen at the time of the last two major growth scares, with broad-based multiple compression across sectors that was concentrated in the cyclical sectors.A lot is now priced in, with a variety of measures ranging from indicating a sharp slowing in macro growth to a high probability of recession.

Deutsche Bank

  

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DB: Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at 2019 and beyond



Earlier this Fall Fed Chair Powell observed that the performance of the US economy "is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times." We agree. With our 2018 outlook holding up remarkably well over the past year, we take a look towards 2019 and beyond. Risks to this "extraordinary" outlook remain, but we now find ourselves expecting the current expansion, which is set to become the longest on record next year, to continue for several years to come. These tweaks come at a time when the consensus and market pricing are moving in the opposite direction, with growing expectations of a 2020 recession.

Our 2019 growth forecast has edged lower by a tenth, mostly due to the front-loading of tighter financial conditions and some slowing in global growth momentum. The most meaningful revision to our outlook comes in 2020, however, where we have lifted our forecast by half a percent to 1.8%, due to a gentler Fed hiking cycle in 2019 and a more supportive fiscal impulse. Our first look at 2021 sees growth slowing further to 1.6%.

Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of this expansion is continued impressive labor market performance coupled with modest inflation pressures. We expect the former to continue in 2019, with the 3.4% unemployment rate set to tie the lowest level since 1953. Wage pressures should continue to firm, reducing concerns about a wage puzzle. But as growth slips below potential beyond, the unemployment rate should drift higher, reaching 3.8% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2021.

Core inflation is still expected to rise above the Fed's target next year, though the magnitude of this overshoot is more modest. Recent softer inflation data, the lagged effects of dollar strength, and some downside risk from a weaker profile for health care inflation should help to offset some of the tailwind from a tight labor market. Core PCE inflation is now expected to rise to 2.2% in 2019 and 2020, and moderate slightly in 2021.

With the labor market beyond full employment and inflation slightly above the Fed's target, we still expect the Fed to move to a restrictive stance in 2019, but the path to that point has changed. We now anticipate three rate hikes in 2019, with the Fed taking a break, or pause, from their gradual quarterly pace of tightening most likely in Q3. That should be followed by one last rate increase in 2020, leaving our terminal rate for this cycle unchanged at 3.4%. Balance sheet unwind, which has been on autopilot to this point, could reach its endpoint in late-2019.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Erste-Fondsmanager für 2019 optimistisch: Mehr Chancen als Risiken
Gutes globales Wachstum, trotz Abschwächung - US/China-Handelsstreit, Brexit, Italien-Budget als Risiken - Positive Entwicklung bei Aktien und Unternehmensanleihen erwartet

Die Vermögensverwalter der Erste Asset Management (EAM) erwarten für 2019 aufgrund eines guten globalen Wachstums trotz leichter Abschwächung eine positive Entwicklung bei Aktien. Risiken wie der Brexit, US/China-Handelsstreit und Budgetstreit in Italien sollten aber berücksichtigt werden, sagt Anlagechef Gerold Permoser. Er rechnet nächstes Jahr mit der ersten Zinserhöhung der EZB seit 2011.

Die Erste Asset Management als Tochter der Erste Group Bank verwaltet mit mehr als 300 Mitarbeitern ein Vermögen von rund 61 Mrd. Euro (Stand Ende Juni 2018). Die Erste Group Bank hat heuer ihre beiden Kapitalanlagegesellschaften verschmolzen. Konkret wurde die Erste-Sparinvest Kapitalanlagegesellschaft (ESPA) mit ihrer Muttergesellschaft, der Erste Asset Management GmbH (EAM), fusioniert.

Das laufende Jahr war nach dem jahrelangen Aufwärtstrend an den Aktienmärkten von schwankenden Kursen geprägt. "Die Richtung der Märkte war 2018 nicht klar", sagte der Chef der Erste Asset Management, Heinz Bednar, vor Journalisten am Mittwoch in Wien. Angesichts der im November gefallenen Aktienkursen und Notierungen von Unternehmensanleihen sieht Bednar "intakte Chancen" für Anleger an den internationalen Kapitalmärkten.

Anlagechef Permoser erwartet nächstes Jahr zwei Zinserhöhungen der US-Notenbank Fed. Aufgrund der gut laufenden US-Wirtschaft müsse die Fed wohl "mehr machen". In Europa sei "die Situation sehr spannend", weil man dabei sei, "das Medikament Nullzinspolitik zu beenden", sagte Permoser. EZB-Chef Mario Draghi hat angedeutet, im September 2019 möglicherweise die Zinsen zu erhöhen. Die Zinserhöhung werde wohl "der Wirtschaft nicht schaden". Im Budgetstreit zwischen der italienischen Regierung und der EU-Kommission erwartet Permoser, dass die italienische Regierung im Laufe des nächsten Jahres nachgeben wird. Die EZB könne den italienischen Banken "zielsicher helfen", wenn es nötig sei.

Die Vermögensverwalter empfehlen den heimischen Privatanlegern etwas mehr in Aktien zu investieren. Die als Aktienmuffel geltenden Österreicher hätten in den vergangenen zehn Jahren trotz der Finanzkrise 2008/09 "viel liegen gelassen", sagte der Erste-Asset-Management-Chef. Beispielsweise stieg der Wiener Aktienindex ATX seit Dezember 2008 um mehr als 80 Prozent, der deutsche Index DAX um mehr als 150 Prozent und der Dow Jones in den USA um knapp 190 Prozent.

  

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Das Wort in Gottes Ohr

No need to worry

The human mind feels most comfortable if there is a logic to what is going on in the world. This is also the case for investors in markets. We need a story, and markets get anxious if there are too many unquantifiable signals and no clear signs of a consistent narrative.

At the moment things are complicated. The US economic data is strong so that is good news. But global QE is ending, US Treasury supply is rising, and hedging costs are higher for foreigners buying assets in the US, and these forces are lifting vol and widening credit spreads. And we have a trade war that is coming and going. And oil prices are falling and the dollar is going up. And to top it all off, we have the unquantifiable force of populism rising everywhere. No wonder the market finds comfort in the yield curve as a signal about what is going on. It is an easy and simple story.

A better and more meaningful place to look for logic as an investor is the economic data. That is what the Fed does. The incoming data continues to be good, and the consensus continues to expect solid GDP and earnings growth for the coming six quarters (see also the Bloomberg screenshot in my daily note yesterday).

If you look at the economic data we see a clear story: We will not have a recession anytime soon.
 
Put differently, with falling oil prices and ADP today at 179k and the latest manufacturing ISM rising to 59.3 and non-manufacturing ISM rising to 60.7 where is this recession the market is so worried about?

Deutsche Bank

  

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eigentlich ein Witz das diese Verbrecher sich noch äußern, der Aktienkurs von denen sagt eh alles aus über die Glaubwürdigkeit,eigentlich sind die ein Kontraindikator.

  

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We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. bonds as our base case is that earnings will continue to positively surprise consensus expectations into 2019. We do accept, however, that markets are in a state of flux at the moment with market illiquidity exacerbating market moves. To address this and protect our portfolio from this volatility headwind, we recommend a range of option structures across asset classes that would benefit from a rise in volatility: Mar19 Bund straddles, EuroStoxx50 Dec20 2750 Puts, 6m6m FVA on EUR/USD, long US rate vol via 5x30y straddles.

JPMorgan

  

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US Equities in 2019

Our US strategists expect the S&P500 to reach 3100 by end of 2019, realizing a 15% price return. They forecast EPS to reach $178 (vs consensus of $176.25) in Dec-2019, an 8% growth. With real GDP growth forecasted to average within 2%-3% range in 2019, equity multiples are not expected to de-rate as long as yields remain below 4%. Finally, the team expects another record year for gross buybacks ($800bn) and dividends ($500bn) on higher profits and cash repatriation.

JPMorgan

  

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>... u.a zum Kauf von Euro-Aktien.
>
>Quelle:https://www.handelszeitung.ch/invest/star-investor-fisher-teure-schweizer-aktien-verkaufe n#

Die italienischen Zinszahlungen stehen bei etwa 14 Prozent der Steuereinnahmen, der beinahe tiefste Wert seit Generationen. In den 1990er Jahren überstieg dieser Wert 40 Prozent, ohne dabei eine Krise auszulösen.

Jössas. Warum sich die Italiener das gefallen haben lassen ohne sich auf die Such nach Laternenmasten für die Politiker zu machen, verstehe wer will.

  

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2018 has delivered losses on almost every asset class and investing style, a sweep that has only occurred twice in the past 50 years – during the 1970s stagflation episodes and the Global Financial Crisis. The simplest explanation for this pattern is inevitable mean reversion, since 2017’s risk-adjusted returns were two or three times their long-term average in most asset classes. A 2018 that delivered trivial gains or even losses would still leave the average of the past two years respectable.

JPMorgan

  

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The market remains focused on the fact that core inflation in the euro area has broadly been going sideways, at around 1%. But, where wages lead, prices typically follow. The ECB has drawn attention to the relationship between compensation per employee in services and inflation in services in the euro area. Compensation per employee in the private sector in the services rose by 2.8% in the year to the third quarter, up decisively from the lows of 1% recorded in 2016. Even with the recovery seemingly losing momentum, this will very likely be seen by the ECB as confirmation of the Phillips curve kicking in and wages responding.

 
A country breakdown shows compensation per employee growing at the second highest rate on record since 1999 in Germany (3.2% year-on-year), accelerating in Spain (1.7% on year) and even outperforming in Italy (2.8%). Which brings us to the UK. Regular pay in the private sector has now risen by around 5% annualized for two consecutive months. If it wasn’t for Brexit, the BoE would be on course to raise rates again. But, as with many other decisions at the moment, they will be on hold, waiting to see how all the drama in Parliament plays out.

  

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The WSJ report that China is rewriting its 2025 policy and considering SOE competitive neutrality suggests that real talk on tough sticking points is forthcoming. This challenges the view that more escalation from here is needed before the tension is resolved. Yet this doesn’t change our key US and China market views. Our colleagues already upgraded China equities to OW as the G20 ‘pause’ was sufficient to boost a market priced for a worse outcome. But for US equities, this reinforces a range-bound path: less downside, but also less upside having not priced in trade escalation.

Details are too sparse to conclude that a trade deal is near, but this could mean reduced chances of escalation beyond March 1. Either China is serious about amending its industrial policies, or it is at least willing to change their optics while conceding on other points (i.e., auto tariffs, IP practices and joint ventures). This might not satisfy hardliners, but the unconventional, and perhaps unintentional, escalation since the G20 (Huawei, iPhone rulings, etc.) that resulted in market weakness may make this sufficient to keep negotiations on track given the US administration’s sensitivity to markets.

  

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That said there was one surprise and that was the suggestion that the ECB is starting to rethink the structural impact of negative deposit rates on the banking system. This increases the possibility of a technical deposit rate hike – a hike for non-cyclical/non-monetary policy purposes – in 2019.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Equity markets arrested their decline this week, helped by some positive developments on the US – China trade front. However, concerns over the global growth outlook remain acute, with further weakness in the Eurozone PMIs and uninspiring Chinese data. EM equities are continuing to stabilize vs DM.
• Our Global equity strategists do not believe that equity volatility seen in 2H of this year is a sure sign we are entering a contraction phase in 2019 and find clear similarities to the ’15-’16 episode. In the 2H of ’15, the markets were also deteriorating fast, with EM/Eurozone/Cyclicals all down 30% and US HY credit spreads widening by more than 400bp. Most believed then that US was slipping into a downturn, but the US recession didn’t come and the markets strongly bounced over the next two years, in 2016 and 2017. What stopped the rot was the Fed pausing in March’16, USD peaking at the same time, and China stimulus coming through. Fast forward to present, where growth fears are again in full swing, but Fed might be turning more dovish, EM FX is up for tree months in a row and Chinese FAI is bouncing. In a sense, some slowing in US growth at this stage should not be seen as a negative, but should take the edge off the USD, the Fed and the risk of further trade escalation. Equities have derated 15-20% ytd, HF beta is the lowest since 2008 and the Bull-Bear sentiment indicator the most negative since 2016. Our strategists were cautious on EM entering 2018, but now believe EM should outperform in 2019. Within DM, they stay OW US and relatively more cautious on Europe, due to weaker earnings prospects and the continued political uncertainty .

JPMorgan

  

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RBI: Märkte dürften alte Sorgen auch ins Jahr 2019 mitziehen

Konjunktursorgen und politische Faktoren bleiben dominant - Brezinschek: "Längst überfällig, dass EZB Negativzinssatz beseitigt"

Die Finanzmärkte werden ihre Sorgen aus dem heurigen Jahr wohl auch 2019 nicht abschütteln können. So dürften die Angst um eine sich abschwächende Weltwirtschaft sowie politische Faktoren das Marktgeschehen noch länger beherrschen. "Die Themen die heuer bestimmend waren, werden nicht verschwinden", sagte Bernd Maurer, Analyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB), am Mittwoch vor Journalisten.

Die wichtigsten politischen Einflussfaktoren für die Finanzmärkte waren 2018 der Brexit, Italiens Haushaltsstreit mit der EU und der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China. Alle drei Themen sind nach wie vor ungelöst und dürften die Anleger damit auch 2019 in Schach halten.

Gepaart mit massiven Sorgen der Marktteilnehmer um eine Abschwächung der globalen Wirtschaftsdynamik kam es im vierten Quartal 2018 zu einem deutlich stärkeren Rückgang an den Aktienmärkten als erwartet, erklärten die Experten. Auf Jahressicht sehen sie für den ATX ein Minus von rund 15 Prozent, das sei etwas schwächer als der europäische Gesamtmarkt. In den USA fällt die Bilanz mit einem Minus von rund drei Prozent bei den größten Aktienindizes etwas besser aus.

Kurzfristig halten die Analysten den aktuellen Marktpessimismus aber für übertrieben und sehen daher für das erste Quartal 2019 Korrekturpotenzial nach oben. Auf das Gesamtjahr gesehen trübt sich der Ausblick für die Märkte jedoch ein. "Das Momentum hat gedreht, von einer ständigen Verbesserung der Dynamik hin zu einer leichten Abschwächung", sagte Maurer. Man befinde sich nun am Ende einer langen Aufschwungphase.

Dennoch ist die Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) mit Blick auf die globale Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2019 noch vorsichtig optimistisch gestimmt. Im Durchschnitt rechnen sie für 2019 mit einem Wachstum von 1,5 Prozent für die Eurozone. Für 2018 lautet die Schätzung auf 1,9 Prozent. "Das ist kein Rezessionsumfeld", sagte der RBI-Chefökonom Peter Brezinschek.

Auch in den USA wird eine Abschwächung der Dynamik erwartet, die sich aber erst 2020 deutlich niederschlagen wird. Für 2018 sieht die RBI ein Wachstum von 2,9 Prozent. 2019 dürfte die Zahl dann auf 2,3 Prozent sinken und für 2020 prognostiziert die RBI ein Wachstum von nur 0,5 Prozent.

Noch ist die Stimmung in den USA aber gut, wie auch die jüngsten Zahlen zu den Einkaufsmanagerindizes zeigen. Im zweiten Halbjahr 2019 dürfte das positive Sentiment aber deutlich nachlassen, so der Experte. In der Eurozone haben sich die Stimmungsindikatoren bereits im zweiten Halbjahr 2018 bereits eingetrübt.

Was die Zinspolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) betrifft, gehen die RBI-Experten von einer langsamen Rückkehr der EZB aus der nach wie vor extrem expansiven Geldpolitik aus, beginnend mit einer Anhebung des Bankeinlagenzinssatzes (aktuell minus 0,4 Prozent) im zweiten Halbjahr 2019. Bis Anfang 2020 dürfte dieser den Prognosen zufolge dann in den positiven Bereich vordringen.

Es sei "längst überfällig, die Negativzinsen zu beseitigen", sagte Brezinschek am Mittwoch vor Journalisten. Ein solcher Schritt würde auch den angeschlagenen italienischen Banken helfen, da diese derzeit hohe Zinszahlungen an die EZB tätigen müssen. Zudem würde dadurch die Profitabilität des gesamten europäischen Banksystems verbessert ohne den Wettbewerb zu verzerren, sagte Brezinschek.

Für die heute Abend anstehende Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) geht die RBI von einer weiteren Anhebung der Zinsen aus. "Die Fed wird ihre Unabhängigkeit damit einmal mehr unter Beweis stellen", so Brezinschek. Wichtiger als die Zinsentscheidung wird jedoch der Wirtschaftsausblick der Währungshüter für 2019 sein.

  

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Making Sense of the December Risk-off

The US equity downdraft in December is not due primarily to a rise in market perceptions of tail risks or to a sharp dialing down of baseline growth expectations. We think the reason is simpler: retail outflows have picked up sharply in December, unlike in the October sell-off. We believe that fundamentals should re-assert themselves over the medium term; at current levels, US equities are reasonably attractive for investors with a 6- to 12- month horizon.

US equities have taken another leg down in December, sparking a global risk-off. Usually, one of two reasons drives any such move:

Investors have re-priced downwards their baseline for economic and earnings growth,

Or markets are now pricing in a greater possibility of a tail risk materializing and are, hence, demanding more risk premia. 

We do not subscribe to the view that the December risk-off is because investors have dialed up their forecast for a US recession. A 2019 recession is not a realistic probability in either recent data or our forecasts. Despite the rate rally, US bond markets are not seriously pricing in a recession, either. Rather, they simply seem to be telling us that they believe the Fed hiking cycle is close to being finished.

It is also hard to ascribe the sell-off to markets’ suddenly assigning much higher probabilities to tail risks materializing. The news flow for the past several weeks has been almost uniformly positive, whether it is the Fed’s dovish tone, encouraging news on US-China trade talks or the Italy budget stand-off. The volatility markets also support our view that the recent move is not due to panic among institutional investors.

Instead, we believe that a sharp rise in retail outflows has been the main driver of the most recent move, with selling indiscriminate across sectors and styles. Record mutual fund outflows in recent weeks and extremes in retail sentiment on equities in October (which were largely absent during the initial selloff) support this narrative.

Given our belief that this risk-off is not driven by a change in investors’ fundamental outlook, equities look reasonably attractive, even if P/E multiples do not recover from the recent compression. It is hard to step in the middle of the relentless selling and bearish sentiment of recent weeks, and also difficult to estimate when the outflows stop

But we believe that the fundamentals should re-assert themselves sooner than later, which implies a move higher for US equities for investors with a 6- to 12- month horizon.

  

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World’s biggest hedge fund says stocks aren’t pricing in ‘near-recession’ U.S. growth next year

Here’s Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world: “The biggest theme developing is that you are going to have significantly weaker growth, near recession-level growth in 2019, based on our measures, and the markets are generally not pricing that in,” Jensen told Reuters in an interview.

Bridgewater expects U.S. GDP near a paltry 1% in 2019, with the rest of the world faring slightly worse.

“Although the movement has been in that direction, the degree of < the market’s decline> is still small relative to what we are seeing in terms of the shifts in likely economic conditions,” says Jensen, as he summed up what they see as 2019’s big story: “weaker growth and central banks struggling to move from their current tightening stance to easing and finding it difficult to ease because they have very little ammunition to ease.”

But it’s not all bad news from the manager, because he doesn’t see a 2008-style blowup because there’s less leverage in the financial system. What we’ll get instead is a torturous “dragged-out” process that “gets market prices in line.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-says-stocks-arent-pricing-in- near-recession-us-growth-next-year-2018-12-21

  

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US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low. What is safe to say is that there is something driving equities lower, which is not impacting rates. Or there is something keeping long rates high, which is not impacting equities.

 

It could be that algos and momentum traders are driving equities but not rates. But this explanation is puzzling because Treasuries would normally be the safe parking spot for computers worried about a downturn. Maybe a simpler explanation is that sellers in equities don’t want duration but are happy to hold short rates, which are high relative to long rates. But this also begs the question why investors don’t want to buy US duration.

 

Another more likely explanation is that the correlation between equities and rates broke down in early 2018, which has caused trouble for quant funds. What happened in January 2018 was that the corporate tax cut had to be financed by a significant increase in Treasury supply, and maybe the reason why long rates remain so high is because the market is beginning to price a US fiscal premium into US government bonds. If this is the case then the rates and equity correlation will remain broken because we will have US government budget trillion dollar deficits for a very long time. In quant terminology, it looks like a new explanatory factor has entered US rates markets which didn’t impact rates before 2018.

Deutsche Bank

  

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>US rates are too high. Or S&P500 is too low. What is safe
>to say is that there is something driving equities lower,
>which is not impacting rates. Or there is something keeping
>long rates high, which is not impacting equities.
>

>
>It could be that algos and momentum traders are driving
>equities but not rates. But this explanation is puzzling
>because Treasuries would normally be the safe parking spot for
>computers worried about a downturn. Maybe a simpler
>explanation is that sellers in equities don’t want duration
>but are happy to hold short rates, which are high relative to
>long rates. But this also begs the question why investors
>don’t want to buy US duration.
>

>
>Another more likely explanation is that the correlation
>between equities and rates broke down in early 2018, which has
>caused trouble for quant funds. What happened in January 2018
>was that the corporate tax cut had to be financed by a
>significant increase in Treasury supply, and maybe the reason
>why long rates remain so high is because the market is
>beginning to price a US fiscal premium into US government
>bonds. If this is the case then the rates and equity
>correlation will remain broken because we will have US
>government budget trillion dollar deficits for a very long
>time. In quant terminology, it looks like a new explanatory
>factor has entered US rates markets which didn’t impact rates
>before 2018.
>
>Deutsche Bank

Habe jetzt mal bei ein paar Werten den Fuß in die Türe gestellt, sprich kleinere bis mittlere Posi aufgebaut.

Porr - scheint bei 17,xx jetzt doch mal einen Boden gefunden zu haben
Erste - Die Erfahrungen mit den Bankensteuern zeigt, dass diese dann doch irgendwie tw. umgangen werden können. Auf der anderen Seite hohe Nachahmungsgefahr
RBI - Bewertung schwer okay, die Russen haben den letzten Ölpreisverfall auch relativ gut weggesteckt
Bawag - sehr solide Bewertung
AMS AG - sehr hohe short Quote, Gewinnwarnungen etc. - da solle mal jetzt die Bad News draußen sein.

Generell bleibt die Ausrichtung aber sehr vorsichtig

  

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USA Konjunktur: Sorgen der Märkte schwer nachvollziehbar 

Die Nervosität an den Aktienmärkten ist während der letzten Wochen massiv gestiegen und ein Aktienkursrückgang, der Anfang Oktober eingesetzt hatte, beschleunigte sich im Dezember. Anfang Oktober hatten Aussagen des Fed-Vorsitzenden Powell der Stimmung einen massiven Dämpfer erteilt, als er noch eine Reihe von Zinserhöhungen in Aussicht stellte. Vorsichtigere Aussagen von Powell zum gleichen Thema Ende November sorgten nur kurzfristig für Euphorie. 

Das bestimmende Thema dann für die Märkte wurde die Angst vor einem deutlichen Konjunkturabschwung in den USA. Diese Ängste waren nicht nachvollziehbar. Die hereinkommenden Daten wiesen zwar auf eine Verlangsamung des Wachstums im vierten Quartal hin, diese ging aber von sehr hohen Wachstumsraten im zweiten und dritten Quartal aus. Diese Verlangsamung war nicht überraschend, da klar war, dass die Auswirkungen von Steuersenkungen und höheren öffentlichen Ausgaben anfangs am stärksten wirken und dann nachlassen würden. 

Die Ängste der Märkte beruhten somit nicht auf ablesbar geänderten Konjunktur-Erwartungen. Dies wurde dann bei der Sitzung des zinsentscheidenden Gremiums der US-Notenbank (FOMC) knapp eine Woche vor Weihnachten bestätigt. Das FOMC und der Vorsitzende Powell bestätigten den in Summe weiterhin positiven Konjunkturausblick und stellten weitere Zinserhöhungen für das Jahr 2019 in Aussicht, wobei aber die Erwartungen generell etwas reduziert wurden. Dies reichte aber noch immer, um einen massiven Abverkauf an den Aktienmärkten auszulösen. 

Für zusätzliche Verunsicherung sorgte Präsident Trump, der innerhalb von einer Woche wiederholt den Fed-Vorsitzenden kritisierte, den Verlust seines Verteidigungsministers hinnehmen musste und einen teilweisen Regierungsstillstand auslöste. 

Wie wird es weiter gehen? Für uns sind die Sorgen der Märkte über die US-Konjunktur schwer nachvollziehbar. In Summe erwarten wir auch für das Jahr 2019 eine solide BIP-Wachstumsrate von +2,3%, die zwar niedriger ausfallen wird als 2018 (+2,9%), aber noch immer über dem langfristigen Potential liegen sollte. 

Die Turbulenzen an den Märkten werden aber wohl ihre Spuren hinterlassen und die Konjunkturdaten vom Dezember, die überwiegend im Jänner veröffentlicht werden, sollten somit eine Eintrübung zeigen. Dies sollte aber stimmungsgetrieben und damit vorübergehend sein. Die Daten im ersten Quartal des nächsten Jahres sollten dann wieder eine Aufhellung zeigen. Steuersenkungen und höhere Ausgaben sollten noch Wirkung zeigen. 

Die Fed wird sich abwartend verhalten und eine Zinsanhebung im März wird davon abhängen, wie schnell sich die Konjunktur vom Einbruch der Aktienmärkte im Dezember erholt. Wir gehen derzeit noch von einer Zinserhöhung im März aus, die Unsicherheit ist aber sicherlich gestiegen. Entscheidend wird für uns sein, wie schnell eine Beruhigung an den Märkten eintritt. Nicht unwesentlich dafür wird auch sein, wie sich die politische Situation entwickelt. Die jüngsten Entscheidungen von Präsident Trump dürften die Märkte zusätzlich verunsichert haben und weiteres Öl ins Feuer ist nicht auszuschließen. 

Erste Bank

  

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Next week we will find out how much damage the turbulence in markets in December did to the real economy. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which came out earlier this week, does point to some downside risk to the December ISM.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Our US equity strategists view the current sell-off, as a reset rather than end of the business cycle. Similar to prior two resets (mid-2011, late-2015), their US QMI continues to suggest growth is decelerating but is unlikely to slip into outright recession. The equity de-leveraging across investors has been rapid and sharp with valuation multiple de-rating to early-cycle levels. Unlike prior episodes during this cycle, profits are stronger and corporate sentiment remains healthy as implied by insider purchases and buybacks. They expect strong earnings surprises to continue for 4Q18, but expect corporates to recalibrate 2019 estimates slightly lower given the market volatility and policy uncertainties. Consensus earnings growth rate for next year could be revised down to mid-single-digit giving corporates ample room to beat on above trend revenue growth and continued buyback executions. They expect double digit returns for equities with a technical demand of more than $1.5 trillion via buybacks, reinvestment of dividends, flows from discretionary hedge fund, systematic investors and pension funds. For a sustainable equity rally, however, Fed and the Trump Administration (on the trade front) would need to do their part in reducing policy uncertainty at a time when market liquidity and breadth are extremely poor.

JPMorgan

  

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Nowotny: "Mit dem Brexit schwächt sich Europa selbst"

New York könnte einer der großen Gewinner des Brexits sein, sagt Ewald Nowotny. Er verrät, warum er sich um Deutschland sorgt und wie es mit den Zinsen weitergehen könnte.

derstandard.at/2000095979136/Nationalbankchef-Nowotny-Mit-dem-Brexit-schwaecht-sich-Europa-selbst

  

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>Nowotny: "Mit dem Brexit schwächt sich Europa selbst"
>
>New York könnte einer der großen Gewinner des Brexits sein,
>sagt Ewald Nowotny. Er verrät, warum er sich um Deutschland
>sorgt und wie es mit den Zinsen weitergehen könnte.
>
>derstandard.at/2000095979136/Nationalbankchef-Nowotny-Mit-dem-Brexit-schwaecht-sich-Europa-selbst
Wann geht der Kontraindikator endlich in Pension?

  

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>Wann geht der Kontraindikator endlich in Pension?

Wahrscheinlich gibt es noch keinen Nachfolger. Irgend einen verlässlichen Kontraindikator braucht man schließlich.

  

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“How much of US recession risk is priced in?”

• Last week we provided a simple framework for assessing how much probability of a US recession is embedded in asset prices. We concluded that of Jan 3rd, a typical US recession was priced in with around 60% probability across US equity, bond and commodity markets with the exception of US HY credit that was pricing in only 12% probability. Since then markets have moved and are currently pricing in on average around 50% probability of a typical US recession. This is lower than last week’s 60% but in our mind it still represents a decent cushion against downside risks to US growth.
• This is especially true as markets tended to overreact in the past with the majority of major equity market corrections giving false signals of a US recession. To see this we look at all 13% or more corrections in the S&P500 index since the Second World War (13% corresponds to 50% probability of a US recession given the average 26% peak to trough decline in the S&P500 into US recessions). Of the 39 13%+ corrections in the S&P500 since the Second World War, only 15 or 40% were followed by a US recession. So more than 60% of these 13%+ equity market corrections have given false signals.

JPMorgan

  

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• Global equity markets continued their recovery, with MSCI World now up 5% year-to-date. Regionally, the US outperformed, but all key markets are in the green. At a sector level, Financials and Energy are leading the bounce, with a strong rebound in UK domestic stocks this week. Our Global equity strategists continue to expect market stabilisation this year. In their view, the current backdrop has similarities to the 2015-16 correction episode, where post the weak 2H ’15 equities delivered strong returns. They also suggest that US - China trade issues are unlikely to escalate from here. Regionally, they keep a preference for EM over DM. The recent dovish tone of Fed chair Powell implies that the dollar may not move further higher. Within DM, they continue to prefer exposure to US over Europe. They remain UW the UK on the prospect of stronger GBP; however, within the UK they recently changed their long-held preference for Exporters vs. Defensive names. UK domestic names have underperformed by 35% over the last 3 years and are likely to rally as the prospect of No Deal Brexit reduces. Valuations for UK domestic plays look extremely cheap, balance sheets are strong and their dividend yields are highly attractive. Specifically, they upgraded UK Homebuilders from UW to OW. They also added to UK Real Estate and domestic Banks.

JPMorgan

  

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Viele Bad News zum Jahresstart und es geht weiter ...

-China wächst so langsam wie seit 28 Jahren nicht mehr

Chinas Wachstum fällt auf den niedrigsten Stand seit drei Jahrzehnten

-BREXIT und EU Wahl mit unklarem Ausgang und nachfolgender Richtung
-Leitzinsen?
-Allgemeine Konjunkturprognosen für 2019 und 2020 wenig berauschend

usw.

Wird schwierig - oder die Chance wieder günstiger nachzukaufen?

  

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Poor Earnings Season May Not Stop a Market Rally, JPMorgan Says

(Bloomberg) -- The coming earnings season is likely to be ugly, but that may not be taken badly by an equity market that’s already anticipating negative news, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Particularly weak activity indicators in Europe suggest the coming season is likely to be challenging and below consensus estimates, according to strategist Mislav Matejka, who has cut his expectations for the region’s earnings-per-share growth by 3 percent for the year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poor-earnings-season-may-not-110215628.html

  

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Chilling Davos: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and Debt

DAVOS, Switzerland — As business and political leaders arrive in the Swiss Alps for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, a surprisingly alarming letter from an influential investor who studiously eschews attention has already emerged as a talking point.

The letter, written by Seth A. Klarman, a billionaire investor known for his sober and meticulous analysis of the investing world, is a huge red flag about global social tensions, rising debt levels and receding American leadership.

Mr. Klarman, a 61-year-old value investor, runs Baupost Group, which manages about $27 billion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/business/dealbook/world-economic-forum-klarman.html

  

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Draghi glaubt nicht mehr an Zinserhöhung in seiner Amtszeit

Offiziell stellt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) in Aussicht, ihre Schlüsselsätze noch bis mindestens über den Sommer 2019 hinaus nicht anzutasten.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5568133/Draghi-glaubt-nicht-mehr-an-Zinse rhoehung-in-seiner-Amtszeit

  

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"Crowding out" meinen die:

The dramatic increase in the supply of risk-free assets since the beginning of 2018 is probably the reason why we last year, despite very strong GDP growth saw negative returns on IG, HY, and equities. With the net supply of Treasuries growing even more in 2019 there are reasons to be worried about the outlook for risky assets this year, in particular with the fiscal drag on GDP growth increasing as we go through 2019 and into 2020. If we do get a slowdown in economic growth later this year then risky assets will be under even more downward pressure. This combination of high and growing debt and slowing economic growth is obviously not good for stocks and credit.

 

What can the FOMC do to limit these negative forces? Not much. The Fed can stop running down its balance sheet and thereby stop adding more risk-free assets to the system. Which ultimately will free up more dollars for risky assets. But even if the Fed does this in 2019 it will still be a small move compared to the enormous growth in the supply of risk-free assets coming from fiscal policy.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Although we’ve thought that clarity on US-China trade as the single most important policy change that could improve growth and earnings expectations, Fed policy becomes the more immediate focus given the Jan 30th FOMC meeting. That the Fed is pausing seems indubitable given Fedspeak since the December meeting; the questions are (1) how long will the pause last; (2) is the next rate move higher or lower; and (3) what's the balance sheet’s path. The JPM view is that this is a six month hiatus (half as long as the 2016 pause) before the Fed resumes tightening, since the US economy remains near full employment despite the Trump Administration's disruptive policies ex tax cuts. Market pricing is much more pessimistic in pricing a cut next year, because investors assign higher odds to some combination of slower growth, lower inflation or change in Fed reaction function. Next week the Fed will likely not issue the kind of calendar guidance that markets would welcome because data-dependence implies that the Fed has little confidence on how macro variables and Washington will evolve. Our economists just expect a modified statement that strengthens market conviction in a pause but doesn’t abandon the medium-term path of higher rates (see Feroli from Jan 25th). The word "patient", which former Chair Bernanke introduced in late 2014 to signal an institutional commitment to a slow-moving Fed, could move from sideline speech into the text. Balance sheet run-off could be mentioned in the press conference, but with no indication of a decision. But if the Fed ended this ambient tightening, some markets might retest their 2018 highs.

JPMorgan

  

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Global equity markets showed resilience this week despite headwinds from weaker PMIs in Eurozone and Japan. Regionally, EM continued to outperform DM and US outperformed Europe. At a sector level, Cyclicals outperformed Defensives in both US and Europe. Our Global equity strategists remain constructive, believing that equities will keep bottoming out. They expect weaker earnings in Europe on the back of further activity slowdown during Q4. Expectations of 3% EPS growth in Europe don’t appear high, but are still likely to be missed. That said, our strategists do not expect equities to fall because of this. Equity P/Es have derated significantly over the last few months and should provide some cushion. Our strategists argue that one doesn’t need positive earnings to be bullish on stocks.’15-’16 episode is the case in point. Equities bottomed out in Feb’16 but EPS revisions only turned positive in Dec ’16. They believe that equities will continue bouncing on the back of Fed pausing, USD peaking and China/US activity momentum stabilizing. They remain OW US vs Europe, as among other US results in Q4 are likely to be much stronger than European ones. They are also OW EM vs DM, & reiterate their recent upgrade of Commodities, notably Energy, as well as US Banks and UK domestic plays.

JPMorgan

  

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In the US, buyback activity has been very strong during 4Q18 and the team expects it to remain robust in 2019. They believe buybacks will remain primarily funded by cash flow (~$2tn) and balance sheet. Also, S&P 500 companies have repatriated ~$340bn or ~27% in foreign held funds thus far with an additional ~$1 trillion still held abroad. In 2019, they expect S&P500 companies to execute ~$800bn in buybacks and return an additional ~$500bn via dividends, which is inline with 2018 shareholder return.

JPMorgan

  

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RBI-Chefanalyst erwartet im ersten Halbjahr Börsenaufschwung
Zweites Halbjahr könnte wieder Rückgang des ATX bringen - "Jänner-Regel" lässt statistisch auf kräftigen Zuwachs im Gesamtjahr hoffen - Politik bringt Unsicherheit

Zumindest im ersten Halbjahr 2019 zeichnet sich ein Anstieg der Börsen ab. Schon das zweite Halbjahr könnte aber wieder einen Rückgang mit sich bringen, sagte RBI-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek am Montag vor Journalisten. Derzeit liege der Wiener Index ATX über 2.900 Punkten und gehe "in Richtung 3.000", für das Jahresende sage sein Haus aber wieder 2.900 Punkte voraus.
Dabei lasse die Statistik durchaus hoffen: Der Jänner war sehr gut an der Wiener Börse - wie auch an internationalen Börsen. Und die "Jänner-Regel" zeige, dass meistens (71,4 Prozent der Jahre) auch das Gesamtjahr positiv ist, wenn der Jänner einen Anstieg der Kurse gebracht hat. Dass das aber eben nur eine Wahrscheinlichkeit und keine Sicherheit ist, hat das Jahr 2018 gezeigt: Nach einem "extrem starken Jänner" kam es zum Einbruch und am Ende des Jahres lag der ATX um etwa 20 Prozent im Minus.

Dreh- und Angelpunkt ist die Unsicherheit: Einerseits sind es die schlechter werdenden Wachstumsaussichten für die Wirtschaft. Aber das ist aus Sicht Brezinscheks nicht das Ausschlaggebende: "Taktgeber auf den Finanzmärkten ist seit 2018 die Politik", sagt er. Entscheidungen, aber auch "Nicht-Entscheidungen" der Politik treiben die Unsicherheit an: Etwa der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China, der noch immer nicht endgültig fixierte Brexit, das Warten auf eine Normalisierung der Geldpolitik der EZB. "All das sind Fragestellungen, die Unsicherheit verbreiten".

Einen kurzfristigen Anstieg der Börsen lässt auch der ungewöhnlich starke Rückgang Ende 2018 erwarten. Die Kurse haben sich so stark vom 200-Tage-Schnitt entfernt, wie erst zweimal seit 2010. Das lässt erwarten, dass es jetzt kurzfristig eine Rückkehr zur "Normalität" und damit einen Kursgewinn gibt. Gestützt wird der Optimismus von Brezinschek durch das hochrangige Treffen zwischen USA und China zum Handelsstreit noch diese Woche und durch die Hoffnung, dass die Briten einen EU-Austritt ohne Abkommen gesetzlich ausschließen könnten. Beides würde Unsicherheit reduzieren und den Börsen helfen.

Selbst wenn es nach dem "phänomenal starken" Jahresanfang zwischenzeitlich eine "Atempause" bei der Kursentwicklung geben sollte, "wenn sich die politischen Fronten, vor allem bei Handelskonflikten und Brexit, klären, haben wir die Chance, unsere erste positive Jahreshälfte fortzusetzen", fasst Brezinschek zusammen.

Gute Nachrichten für das Wirtschaftswachstum liest Brezinschek aus der aktuellen Zinslandschaft heraus: Zumindest für die nächsten 12 Monate lassen sich keine Anzeichen für eine Rezession erkennen, auch wenn sich das Wachstum zweifellos abschwächt. "Wenn wir auf 1,3 bis 1,5 Prozent Wachstum zurückkommen, dann ist es der Durchschnitt des Potenzialwachstums", erinnert er.

  

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A recent cold snap in the global economy: This week, a polar vortex hit the US, bringing unprecedented low temperatures. The cold winds reminded me of the chill that has blown through the global economy in recent months. This growth mini-cycle continues to unfold, with incoming data points suggesting that global growth has moved from the recent peak of 4%Y in 1Q18 to a below-trend pace of around 3.4%Y, which compares with the trough of 3.1%Y last seen in 4Q15 and 1Q16.

Nearing a mini-cycle trough: We think that the three most important factors impacting global growth are trade policy, China and the Fed. The outlook on these drivers – potential relief from trade tensions, China’s growth stabilisation from 2Q19 onwards and flexibility from the Fed – leads me to think that we could be nearing the trough in this mini-cycle. Consequently, we expect global growth to move back closer to trend in 2H19, led by emerging markets.

Morgan Stanley

  

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The global economy is at the crossroads. While the US still remains a bastion of macro stability, the latest data in Europe, China, and across emerging markets have all showed clear signs of slowing. Will key economies decelerate but maintain growth, or will they hit nonlinearities and decelerate more sharply? Can the US remain an island of prosperity despite external weakness, or will it too be dragged lower?

Ultimately we are optimistic about the US, but believe that the downside risks have risen sharply in Europe. Economic data across the region has softened, raising the odds of a recession. Domestic financial conditions and fiscal policy are likely to remain supportive this year but the external situation is worrying for the export driven continent. In China, government spending may end up dragging on growth this year, but policy makers still have the tools and the space to avoid a sharp downturn.

How the global economy ultimately resolves may hinge on a few key uncertainties that look set to come to a head over the coming weeks. The trade war between the US and China is approaching the key March 1st deadline, a hard or soft Brexit will happen on March 29 without an extension, and the US will decide on the Section 232 national security report into autos by February 17 with implications for European autos and growth. Europe could be tipped into recession with negative developments on these binary issues.
In market terms the Fed’s recent U-turn is a big positive but to see the full benefits we need to see resolution on the themes above. Overall, while we are attentive to the downside risks we think equities will rally further, rates have scope to rise, and the dollar will likely weaken against major currencies.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Our Global equity strategists believe that the January risk rally is not a dead cat bounce, but that it will become more fundamental as Fed pause is digested, US growth proves to be resilient and Chinese stimulus comes through. They highlight that in contrast to the 2H of last year, when the policy-growth tradeoff was poor, with hawkish Fed and growth decelerating, the current backdrop consists of a dovish Fed and increasing evidence of US growth picking up, as seen in ISM new orders and payrolls rebounding. This is a good combination for stocks, in our view. The Q4 reporting season so far has been encouraging, with positive stock reactions. US earnings continue to outperform Europe. Our strategists reiterate their positive EM stance, supported by a rebound in EM FX. Chinese stimulus is coming through, CNY is stable and in contrast to 2015, Chinese house prices are growing. Within DM, they stay OW US vs Europe. At sector level, they reiterate their upgrade of commodity sectors in December. They believe that Cyclicals will continue rebounding vs Defensives. They remain more cautious on Telecoms, Media, Staples, Retail and European Banks.

JPMorgan

  

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• Small- and mid caps have outperformed large cap US stocks over the past 90 years. This made Size a standard excess-return factor in global equities, alongside Value and Momentum.

• The higher returns on “Smids” have come with higher yoy volatility and similar returns to risk (Sharpe) as large caps. Hence, no free lunch.

• However, small and mid caps provide better time diversification and are low beta versus large caps over 10-year holding periods. In our view, very long-term investors should Overweight small/mid caps versus their 18% weight in global equity outstandings.

JPMorgan

  

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Hallo,
liebe Gemeinede, vielleicht kann mir ein Mathematiker helfen.
Ich möchte gerne in einer Excel Tabelle folgendes festhalten:

Stück Kaufpreis Kurs Wert
1. Position 175 11,05 1933,75
2. Position 110 9,00 990,00
Neuer Kurs 285 10,26 -7,16% 2923,75

Ich hab momentan ein Blackout und weiß nicht wie ich den Durchschnittskurs von diesen 2 Positionen errechnen kann.
Es geht um das Feld dass sich unterhalb von der Überschrift mit dem Titel Kurs befindet.
Zur Erläuterung: Ich kaufe eine 1. Position 175 Stück zu 11,05 €, ergibt einen Wert von 1933,75 €.
Jetzt möchte ich eine 2. Position kaufen mit 110 Stück zu 9,00 €, ergibt einen Wert von 990,00 €.
Somit ergeben sich Gesamtstück von 285, durchschnittlicher Kaufpreis von 10,26 und einen Gesamtwert von 2923,75 €.
Wie bitte ermittliche ich jetzt den Durchschnittskurs in Prozent, die dargestellten -7,16 % stimmen übrigens nicht.

Ich hoffe irgendwer ist so nett und hilft mir weiter.

lg

  

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>Hallo,
>liebe Gemeinede, vielleicht kann mir ein Mathematiker helfen.
>Ich möchte gerne in einer Excel Tabelle folgendes festhalten:
>
> Stück Kaufpreis Kurs Wert
>1. Position 175 11,05 1933,75
>2. Position 110 9,00 990,00
>Neuer Kurs 285 10,26 -7,16% 2923,75
>
>
>Ich hab momentan ein Blackout und weiß nicht wie ich den
>Durchschnittskurs von diesen 2 Positionen errechnen kann.
>Es geht um das Feld dass sich unterhalb von der Überschrift
>mit dem Titel Kurs befindet.
>Zur Erläuterung: Ich kaufe eine 1. Position 175 Stück zu 11,05
>€, ergibt einen Wert von 1933,75 €.
>Jetzt möchte ich eine 2. Position kaufen mit 110 Stück zu 9,00
>€, ergibt einen Wert von 990,00 €.
>Somit ergeben sich Gesamtstück von 285, durchschnittlicher
>Kaufpreis von 10,26 und einen Gesamtwert von 2923,75 €.
>Wie bitte ermittliche ich jetzt den Durchschnittskurs in
>Prozent, die dargestellten -7,16 % stimmen übrigens nicht.


Durchschnittskurs ist 10,26, auf 9 sind das 9/10,26-1 = -12,27%

  

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Übersicht über die laufenden Überprüfungsverfahren nach Squeeze Out 

BDI

Vergleich auf Basis einer Nachbesserung von € 1,00 ist gescheitert. Es wird ein weiterer Versuch unternommen. Eine Entscheidung ist bis Ende März zu erwarten. 

BEKO

Das robuste und ausführlich diskutierte Gutachten von Prof. Rabel, das eine Nachbesserung von € 5,80 auf € 7,05 ermittelt, wird von der Antragsgegnerin abgelehnt. Nun verlagert sich die Entscheidung zum Gericht. 

BWT

Es wurde eine Shortlist von drei Gutachtern erstellt. Die Beauftragung des Bewerters erfolgt durch das Gremium.

BUWOG

Es ist zu hoffen, dass im 2. Quartal die erste Verhandlung stattfindet. Der IVA empfiehlt, das Kaufangebot von € 0,58 nicht anzunehmen, da eine höhere Nachbesserung durchaus möglich ist. 

Conwert

Es wurde eine Shortlist von drei Gutachtern erstellt. Die Beauftragung des Bewerters erfolgt durch das Gremium. 

Ecobusiness

Es liegt ein Vergleichsvorschlag über eine Nachbesserung von € 0,85 inkl. Zinsen vor. Die Kostenfrage ist noch nicht zur Gänze gelöst. 

Scheitern die Vergleichsbemühungen, wird ein Gutachten erstellt. Es besteht das Risiko, dass der Nachbesserungsbetrag von € 0,85 nicht erreicht wird. 

Bank Austria

Nachdem die Vergleichsbemühungen des Gremiums gescheitert sind, liegt die Entscheidung beim Gericht. Die wichtigste Frage ist, inwieweit die „Erga omnes“-Bestimmung (Gleichbehandlung aller Antragsteller) greift, da die aggressive Polygon-Gruppe wie auch eine weitere Aktionärsgruppe im Frühstadium des Squeeze Out einen nicht rückzahlbaren Vorschuss auf das Ergebnis der Überprüfungsverfahren erhalten hat. Der Betrag ist wesentlich höher als € 1,77 plus Zinsen je Aktie, die der Gutachter ermittelt hat. 

Constantia Packaging

Prof. Rabel hat eine Nachbesserung von € 28,67 ermittelt. Derzeit finden Vergleichsverhandlungen betreffend die Zinsen und die Kosten statt. Eine Entscheidung sollte zwar bis Ende Februar getroffen werden, bis spätestens Ende März sollte Klarheit erreicht werden.

MIBA

Nachdem exorbitant hohe Kostenvergütungen – bis zu € 100.000,00 für einen Antrag und eine Verhandlung – von der Antragsgegnerin gemeinsam mit dem Gemeinsamen Vertreter durchgedrückt werden konnten, liegt nun der Beschluss des Landesgerichts Wels vor, nach dem der Abfindungsbetrag (12.5.2015) maximal € 690,06 beträgt. Es wurden bei der Festlegung die extrem hohen Kostenvergütungen nicht berücksichtigt und die vom IVA vorgebrachten gravierenden Kritikpunkte betreffend die Unternehmensplanung, die auch Basis für das Übernahmeangebot von € 565,00 war, nur peripher behandelt. Daher hat der IVA aus Gründen der Kapitalmarkthygiene einen Rekurs eingebracht. 

  

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• Global equity markets ended yet another week in the green, shrugging off weak retail sales data and continued trade uncertainty. Cyclicals were strongly in the lead in both the US and in Europe. At a regional level, the US is so far outperforming Europe by 400bp this year on a total return basis. S&P500 has had a strong 15%+ recovery since its lows in December, but notably positioning in equities remains subdued. Investors remain uncomfortable to commit, fearing this to be a dead cat bounce. In contrast, our Global equity strategists remain of the view that the rebound will start to look more and more fundamental, with ’15-’16 mid-cycle correction as their template. Within the DM they stay OW US vs Europe, with one of the key considerations being the relative earnings delivery. US activity and topline are still expected to beat Europe, despite the potentially slower US growth in ’19 compared to stimulus assisted ’18. In fact, the proportion of US companies revising their sales guidance up for this year has moved higher vs last year and is well above the long-term median. Buybacks too are likely to remain robust in the US, and significantly above Europe.

JPMorgan

  

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Raiffeisen-Experten - Brexit trifft vor allem britische Wirtschaft
Für Österreich vor allem indirekte Auswirkungen über wichtige Handelspartner

Der EU-Austritt Großbritanniens und vor allem ein harter Brexit würde laut Experten von Raiffeisen Research vor allem die britische Wirtschaft stark treffen. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen solchen "harten Brexit" wird aktuell auf 30 Prozent geschätzt. Österreichs Wirtschaft wäre vor allem indirekt betroffen.

An Europas Aktienbörsen könnte es im Fall eines überraschend harten Brexit ohne Abfederung am 29. März zu einem Minus in einer Dimension von 5 bis 10 Prozent kommen, so Raiffeisen-Research-Experte Valentin Hofstätter am Mittwoch vor Journalisten. Der Effekt könnte allerdings bald wieder abgemildert werden, wenn es relativ rasch zu einem Package komme, wie es weitergehe. Wenn man dann noch glaube, man müsse verkaufen, könnte es sein, dass man am Tief verkaufe. Allzu lange dürfte der Brexit die Finanzmärkte aber nicht beschäftigen, andere Themen wie etwa die Handelskonflikte würden die Märkte dann wieder beeinflussen.

Die Folgen eines ungeregelten Brexit für Österreichs Wirtschaft seien vor allem indirekt, man sollte sie nach Ansicht der Raiffeisen-Experten aber nicht unterschätzen. Wichtige Handelspartner wie Deutschland und osteuropäische Länder hätten eine größere Außenhandelsverflechtung mit Großbritannien, was sich wiederum auf die Konjunktur in Österreich auswirken könnte. Im Tourismus könnten sich Effekte wegen einer dann geringeren Kaufkraft der Briten zeigen.

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines "well-managed-Brexit" sehen die Raiffeisen-Experten derzeit bei 70 Prozent, dabei wird einer Verhandlungsverlängerung eine Gesamtwahrscheinlichkeit von 42 Prozent zugeschrieben. Im "Hard-Brexit"-Szenario mit einer 30-Prozent-Wahrscheinlichkeit sind aber auch Übergangsregelungen vorgesehen. Solche Übergangsregelungen wären aber nur zeitlich befristet etwa für sechs bis neun Monate gültig.

Für die Verlagerung von Unternehmen sehen die Experten noch viel Potenzial, auch aus dem Finanzsektor. Ein Viertel des internationalen Bank-Exposure in der EU beispielsweise komme aus Großbritannien. Mögliche Verlagerungen gehen aber über die Banken hinaus und umfassen auch Finanzdienstleistungen. Großbritannien sei ein wichtiger EU-Hub. Raiffeisen-Research-Experte Günter Deuber erwartet, dass sich in diesem Bereich noch einiges tun wird, Unternehmen hielten sich bezüglich ihrer Entscheidung noch bedeckt.

Die Wirtschaft in Großbritannien dürfte sich nach einem "harten Brexit" nach ein bis zwei schwachen Jahren wieder auf einem niedrigen Niveau normalisieren - mit einem niedrigeren durchschnittlichen Wachstum als bei einem Verbleib in der EU. Eine zentrale Rolle werde beim Brexit der Leistungsbilanzkorrektur zukommen. Für Industrieländer sei ein Leistungsbilanzdefizit von 5 bis 6 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) kaum tragbar. Aktuell hat es sich in Großbritannien zwar wieder auf rund 3,5 Prozent verbessert, dürfte aber nach einem geringeren Erholungsbeitrag des Dienstleistungssektors im Zuge des Brexit wieder steigen. Eine Leistungsbilanzkorrektur in Industrieländern könne generell eine (mehrjährige) Währungsabwertung von 10 bis 30 Prozent. Eine Währungskrise sollte aber bei der notwendigen Leistungsbilanzkorrektur ebenso vermeidbar sein wie eine umfassende Währungskrise. Am Londoner Aktienmarkt dürften vor allem Unternehmen negativ betroffen sein, die stark in der lokalen Wirtschaft tätig sind und weniger international tätige Konzerne.

  

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Equity markets continued to advance higher this week, shrugging off some weak macro data in Europe and in Japan. Cyclicals stayed in the lead, with Industrials, Tech and Energy the best performing sectors. European equities have narrowed their gap with the US. MSCI World is up 16% since the low made at end-December. Bears continue to argue that one can’t buy stocks until earnings and PMIs stop deteriorating and our global equity strategists disagree with this view, and highlight the ’15 – ’16 episode where MSCI World bottomed 10 months ahead of earnings revisions turning positive. At key inflection points over the last 20 years, equities tended to move significantly ahead of the earnings, by 7 months on average and rallying as much as 30% during this time. While equities did not tend to wait for the earnings improvement to be obvious before recovering, the strategy team does expect a more favourable EPS backdrop in the 2H of the year, on the back of better Chinese activity, higher commodity prices, easier base effects and stronger topline growth. If this comes to pass, they believe that it would drive the next leg of the current market rebound, as it will be seen as a fundamental confirmation of the upmove that many investors are still holding out for. Q4 results are drawing to a close, and are not as poor as investors initially feared. Post the raft of downgrades in Q4, US is showing a clear inflection higher, in line with the pattern observed during previous quarters. Stock price reaction to earnings was encouraging: many companies that missed estimates or lowered guidance were not penalized, and even outright traded higher on the day.

JPMorgan

  

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Fed-Chef plädiert für "geduldiges" Vorgehen bei Zinserhöhungen

Es gebe widersprüchliche Signale zum Wirtschaftswachstum. Manche Investoren gehen davon aus, dass die US-Notenbank nun womöglich das ganze Jahr stillhalten wird.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5586203/FedChef-plaediert-fuer-geduld iges-Vorgehen-bei-Zinserhoehungen

  

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• As trade tensions eased, global equity markets continue to rally, with the MSCI World now up 11% year-to-date. Most regions participated, but the UK underperformed, weighed down by a stronger pound which hit a 21-month high. At a sector level, Tech and Cyclicals were again top this week, with global Cyclicals now outperforming the Defensives by a significant 600bp year-to-date.
• Equities are outperforming most other asset classes, with beta sectors leading. Bears keep arguing that one should be positioned defensively this late in the cycle. However, our global equity strategists believe beta sectors have further upside and that the current backdrop is similar to the ’15-’16 mid-cycle episode. Moreover, they highlight that as China stimulus starts to be felt, Eurozone data stabilizes, US growth proves to be resilient, trade uncertainty impact washes out and commodity prices sequentially move higher, the Cyclicals P/E relative could re-rate further, as seen in ’15-’16 episode, on top of the rebound in the earnings momentum. Regionally, EM is their top pick for 2019, with China most preferred and within DM they remain OW US vs Eurozone/UK. Within the UK market, they have in January reversed their long standing bearish call on UK domestic plays, advising the investors to exit UK exporters. The UK domestic plays are beating exporters by 9% year-to-date and the UK homebuilders are up by 17% year-to-date relative to FTSE100, with our strategists believing there is more to go. At a sector level, they are in particular positive on commodity beta plays such as Miners, and Energy. More broadly, they find Global Cyclical plays such as Semiconductors, Capital Goods and Autos to be attractive.

JPMorgan

  

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Against our expectations, the ECB adjusted its forward guidance and announced an offer of new TLTROs at today’s meeting rather than delaying the decision until Q2. In terms of interest rate guidance, the Governing Council now expects rates to stay on hold “at least through the end of 2019”, this effectively pushes out the timing of the first rate rise by three months relative to what the ECB previously indicated; but there is nothing particularly controversial in this statement. More surprisingly, the ECB jumped the gun and announced that it will offer new TLTROs from September. The details around this offer, however, are vague and leave some important questions unanswered.

  

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What we find puzzling, however, is that the ECB, despite Draghi’s apparent dovishness today, has not fundamentally changed its view on the outlook for the euro area economy. As expected, 2019 GDP growth was cut to 1.1%, but the 2020 forecast stayed almost unchanged at 1.6%. Translating this into quarterly growth figures, the ECB is still pencilling-in euro area growth to return to trend from the second half of this year, and to remain there through 2020.

To sum up, today’s meeting left us confused: we think there was little reason for the ECB to rush into making any policy changes before June. But even ignoring the timing of the TLTRO announcement, we found the ECB’s general tone much more downbeat than is justified by its own forecasts. The ECB thinks that euro area growth is due to accelerate in the coming quarters, with unemployment set to fall faster despite a very weak finish to 2018; and yet, the markets walk away from the press conference seemingly entirely focused on the negative news, with the timing of the first rate-rise pushed out almost into 2021.

  

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• Global equities were lower this week on renewed global growth concerns, stronger USD and some exhaustion post the strong year-to-date rally. Markets also took a rather cautious view of the more dovish ECB stance, with Euro dropping to two year low and bond yields falling across the board, with Defensive sectors in the lead, and Eurozone Banks among the worst performing sectors.
Our Global equity strategists argued earlier in the week that a number of traditional tactical indicators are starting to look toppy, with market consolidation likely. They cited overbought levels of S&P500 RSI, elevated levels of Bull-Bear spread, complacency returning in Investor Intelligence survey and the complete unwind of the Q4 VIX spike. While these suggest that some near term market weakness is likely, our strategists believe that one should use these dips as a buying opportunity, as they note that in contrast to pure price moves, the actual investor positioning has not become stretched. US L/S investor leverage remains low, as is HF beta. Flows into equities have not returned yet, nor have the flows into Cyclicals sectors. For these reasons our strategists believe that the near-term market weakness will not be overly deep. In addition, the fundamental backdrop will continue to improve, in their view. Their key theme remains that we are in the midst of mid-cycle correction, similar to ’15-’16 episode, and not close to the end of the cycle. The Growth-Policy trade-off is clearly much better than was the case in 2H ’18. Global activity momentum is likely to look better going forward with a resilient US, improving China and stabilising Europe. In their opinion, this will lead to a next leg up in the Cyclicals trade, post the near term consolidation.


JPMorgan

  

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Spring in Sight?

After a turbulent winter, there are tentative signs of green shoots in the global economy. On the other hand, downside risks are elevated and could yet freeze over the global economy. Reconciling our optimistic baseline forecast with heightened risks is the key challenge as the calendar progresses into springtime.

On the bullish side of the ledger, there are budding signs of improvement in China. Survey data looks to have troughed, and the government has signaled new easing measures at its recent National People’s Congress. Tax and interest rate cuts will likely boost the economy with a lag, supporting growth later this year. Plus, progress has been made on US-China trade talks, alleviating a key downside risk.

In the US, we are somewhat more cautious on first quarter growth than consensus, but we are nevertheless more bullish for the rest of the year. Our expectations for activity and inflation to continue advancing underlie our expectation for another Fed rate hike later this year.

The biggest risk to the global economy comes from Europe. Data has stabilized in some areas, e.g. with France’s activity improving as the ‘yellow vest’ protests fade, other areas show weakness. The German manufacturing sector is flirting with recession and the Italian economy is in outright contraction. The ECB is unlikely to shift policy substantively in the near-term, leaving the economy fragile and exposed.

We continue to favour US equities, but we also add some defensive trades. While we expect rates to rise, we also think that carry trades are attractive for now. We still expect the dollar to weaken broadly versus major currencies.

Deutsche Bank

  

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How to fix European banking … and why it matters

The performance of the Eurozone economy is inextricably linked to the health of its banking system. This banking system, the largest in the world, provides three-quarters of corporate and nine-tenths of household financing, double and triple the proportion seen in the US. Such a heavy reliance on banks means the Eurozone economy is likely to stagnate unless its banks can build robust balance sheets, earn a competitive return on equity, and generate adequate capital to take on credit risk and market risk to support faster growth and innovation.

Today, the profitability of European banks is relentlessly being pushed down by three forces. First, stronger banks with surplus deposits are being taxed by a historically unprecedented policy experiment of negative central bank deposit rates. Second, banks in some peripheral countries are heavily reliant on direct long-term loan financing from the ECB and remain burdened with a large stock of non-performing loans. Third, banks across the Eurozone have to cope with an attitude of “full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes” in the implementation of a brand new, strongly pro-cyclical, regulatory and supervisory rulebook.

The belief that negative interest rates would ultimately force banks to extend more credit and that they would incentivise companies and households to borrow more for productive purposes has led the ECB to continue to hold on to its negative interest rate policy. This is despite evidence that the smell of panic which surrounds a negative rates policy is undermining the confidence of investors and savers. This policy is now penalising the stronger European banks by charging them about €8bn (40bps on the €2trn of deposits) per annum. At the same time, US banks receive about $40bn (2.4% on $1.65 trn) on their excess reserves. Indeed, negative interest rates have failed to restore the Eurozone to sustainable growth, even while being reinforced by the ECB’s historically unprecedented volume of asset purchases and its massive direct targeted lending to weaker banks. At a time when the US economy is expected to clock in at near 2.5% growth for 2019, the Eurozone is experiencing a rapid deterioration of economic performance and a return to positive rates will be as elusive as it has been in Japan.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Europe Looks Set to Surprise on the Upside

From a domestic standpoint, the idiosyncratic issues that weighed on growth in 2H18 are now starting to fade. Consumer confidence is rising again in France as the gilets jaunes protests lose much of their intensity, and the German auto sector is showing signs of recovery, with both order intake and passenger car registrations rebounding strongly in the last couple of months. In addition, financial conditions across the euro area have eased dramatically over the past three months, wage growth continues to climb and our economists project that 2019 will bring the largest fiscal stimulus the region has seen since 2009.

Looking beyond domestic considerations, we believe that a fair share of Europe’s slowdown last year was ‘made in China’. The sharp drop in growth there weighed heavily on Europe, given its sensitivity to trade and exports, and we would caution investors not to underestimate linkages between the two regions. In a recent report, we highlighted that the China PMI new export orders series leads the euro area PMI closely by about three months, while China credit growth tends to be a solid predictor of Morgan Stanley’s European EPS growth lead indicator. Perhaps most striking of all, we found that European banks’ relative performance has correlated more closely with Chinese bond yields than European bond yields over the last five years! Hence our bullish call on China suggests a better outcome for Europe in the months ahead.

To sceptics on Europe, this may sound like a rather large dose of wishful thinking, but we’ve already seen better euro area retail sales and PMI data for February, implying that January marked the trough for data in this mini-cycle. Given the depth of poor investor sentiment towards the region, any confirmation that growth is rebounding is likely to have important and positive implications for asset prices. With CFTC data suggesting that positioning in EUR is close to a three-year low, we are bullish on EURUSD and target a rebound to 1.18 by the summer. With yield differentials close to record wides, we are underweight European government bonds relative to North American bonds and still see scope for Bund yields to reach 50bp by year-end. And with relative valuations close to an all-time low, we also prefer European equities to US equities. We note that post a trough in the euro area PMI, the average increase in European equities over the subsequent six months is 9%.

  

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• Our global equity strategists remain constructive for stocks in 2019. They believe that the four key drivers of the turn in risk sentiment: the Fed, USD, trade fears and China stimulus, are all tracking favourably. It is the case that some tactical indicators started to look toppy, but our strategists argued that one should use any weakness as the opportunity to add further. The pain trade remains on the upside, in their view. This is because the positioning in equities continues to be light, where the flows have lagged the price moves. Also, they highlight that equities always start rebounding significantly before the inflection in the earnings revisions is evident. The market vs earnings lead-lag in ’98, ’03, ’09 and ’16 was between 5 and 10 months, with stocks up around 30% before fundamentals turn, and with very clear market internals, Cyclicals have lead Defensives on each of those instances. Fundamentally, they believe the earnings and PMIs will confirm the rally as we move into 2H. In their weekly, they addressed another pushback from bears – the fears over the declining money supply measures. M1 has been falling in all the key regions since the beginning of last year, however, the China and US M1 data are likely to inflect higher imminently. They note that M1 tends to be inversely correlated to Fed moves, and as Fed goes on a prolonged hold, the downside pressure on US M1 should reduce. Regionally their top picks remain China and the US.

JPMorgan

  

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• Our Global Equity strategists have argued that for the very short term equities appeared toppy, post the strong run. That said, their medium term outlook remains bullish, where they believe one should use the potential weakness as an opportunity to add further, and they don’t forecast a significant correction as positioning continues to be light. They see equity rebound becoming supported fundamentally into 2H on the dovish Fed, USD rolling over, easing trade concerns and China growth improving, which should ultimately feed into Europe. Regionally, they are OW EM/China and the US, while they are unexcited by Europe.

JPMorgan

  

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Current Inversion

Similar to historical episodes:

• Fed hiking and a growth slowdown are the key drivers of inversion
• The Fed has stopped hiking and plans to put QT on hold


However, differing from historical episodes:

• The 10Y yield is kept artificially lower by zero or negative yields outside of the US (Germany, Japan), significant QE activity, and carry trades
• China is a key driver of the global economic cycle, and monetary and fiscal policy in China are likely to determine this cycle (more so than the Fed)

JPMorgan

  

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wer historische zinssituationen mit der gegenwart ins verhältnis setzt, um daraus rückschlüsse
auf die zukuft zu ziehen, sollte das thema inflation dabei nicht aussser acht lassen.

  

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RBI-Ökonomen bleiben trotz Brexit-Chaos vorerst optimistisch für 2019

Maurer: "Brexit hatte im Q1 kaum Auswirkungen auf die Märkte" - RBI rechnet in Prognosen nicht mit hartem Brexit - Märkte nach Knick im Q4 2018 zum Start 2019 wieder erholt

Trotz der weiterhin vielen Fragezeichen rund um den Brexit bleiben die RBI-Ökonomen vorerst optimistisch für die weitere Entwicklung der Kapitalmärkte im Jahr 2019. "Eine der größten Überraschungen im 1. Quartal war für uns, dass der Brexit nahezu keine Auswirkungen an den Märkten hatte", sagte Bernd Maurer, Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB), am Freitag vor Journalisten.
Das britische Pfund habe sogar aufgewertet. An den Finanzmärkten gingen die Teilnehmer derzeit weitgehend davon aus, dass es keinen "Hard Brexit", also keinen ungeordneten Austritt, geben werde, so Maurer. Die Abstimmungen im britischen Parlament hätten zwar nicht offenbart, wie es nach dem abgelehnten Abkommen mit der EU genau weitergehen soll, sie hätten aber wohl gezeigt, dass das Unterhaus einen Brexit ohne Deal am allerwenigsten möchte, ergänzte Valentin Hofstätter, Ökonom der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI).

Der Glaube der Kapitalmarktteilnehmer an einen Deal zwischen der EU und Großbritannien berge aber auch Gefahren, denn "eine Kursanpassung an den Börsen kann oft sehr schnell gehen". Im Falle eines ungeordneten Brexit wäre dann ein Aussteigen aus risikoreicheren Anlageformen eventuell nicht mehr für alle rechtzeitig möglich, so Hofstätter.

Nach zahlreichen Abstimmungen im britischen Parlament zum Brexit wurde das Datum des Austritts vorerst vom 29. März auf den 12. April verschoben. Zum Ende dieser Sitzungswoche läuft außerdem eine von der EU gesetzte Frist ab, bis zu der in London zumindest der Brexit-Vertrag gebilligt sein muss. Fehlt die Zustimmung, droht zum 12. April ein Ausscheiden Großbritanniens aus der EU ohne Abkommen oder eine sehr lange Verschiebung des Brexits.

Die RBI unterstellt in ihren Prognosen derzeit keinen harten Brexit, sagte RBI-Chefökonom Peter Brezinschek am Freitag im Rahmen des RBI-Kapitalmarktausblicks für das zweite Quartal 2019. Für Österreich prognostizieren die Experten für das laufende Jahr ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,3 Prozent. Für 2020 wird ein Wachstum von 1,2 Prozent unterstellt.

Österreich dürfte sich damit etwas besser halten als die Eurozone, für die die RBI für 2019 und 2020 ein Wachstum von 1,1 bzw. 1,0 Prozent erwartet. Sollte es aber unerwartet doch zu einem ungeordneten Austritt kommen, müssten die Schätzungen deutlich zurückgenommen werden, so Brezinschek.

Bis dahin bleiben die Ökonomen aber noch optimistisch, sowohl für die Kapitalmarktaussichten im zweiten Quartal als auch im Gesamtjahr 2019. Nach der starken Korrektur an den Aktienmärkten im vierten Quartal 2018 sei es im Startquartal 2019 wieder merklich bergauf gegangen. In den USA sei der Knick sogar fast zur Gänze wieder aufgeholt worden, sagte Hofstätter. Die US-Rezessionsängste der Anleger zum Vorjahresschluss seien wohl übertrieben gewesen. Zudem rechnet Brezinschek damit, dass es im Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China in den kommenden Monaten zumindest zu einer vorläufigen Einigung kommen wird.

Auch die zuletzt inverse US-Zinskurve ist laut Hofstätter noch kein Grund zur Sorge, da diese ein sehr früher Vorlauffaktor für eine sich abschwächende Konjunktur ist. Von einer inversen Zinskurve wird dann gesprochen, wenn die Rendite für kurzlaufende dreijährige Papiere den Zinssatz für 10-jährige Staatsanleihen übersteigt. Im Normalfall steigt die Rendite mit zunehmender Laufzeit der Staatspapiere an.

Im Schnitt dauert es nach den ersten Inversionen der Zinskurve aber noch rund eineinhalb Jahre bis der Höhepunkt an den Aktienmärkten erreicht wird, erst dann geht es wieder bergab, sagte Hofstätter. In Anbetracht der anhaltenden EZB-Niedrigzinsphase und der ebenfalls minimalen Renditen bei Staatsanleihen bleibe er dementsprechend für das laufenden Jahr noch "bullish" für den US-Aktienmarkt.

Auch in Wien hat sich der ATX im ersten Quartal 2019 deutlich von seiner Schwächephase im Vorquartal erholt. Seit Jahresbeginn konnte der heimische Leitindex rund elf Prozent zulegen und steht derzeit knapp über 3.000 Punkten. Besonders gut performt hätten die beiden Ölwerte OMV und Schoeller-Bleckmann, wobei die Titel vor allem von einer guten Sektorperformance mitgezogen worden seien, so Maurer. Im Hinblick auf die nahende Dividendensaison hob der RCB-Analyst zudem die UNIQA und die Oesterreichische Post wegen ihrer nachhaltig hohen Dividendenrendite positiv hervor.

  

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At the overall market level, our Global strategists have been calling for equities to sideways consolidate as we head into the Q1 reporting season. They note that many tactical indicators have started to appear toppy, and the earnings results are likely to be mixed, at best. Having said that, they do not think that any potential weakness is likely to be material, or prolonged, as positioning is still light. They advise to use dips as an opportunity to add further, as they expect the rebound to gain fundamental traction in 2H, with both macro and earnings trending higher. The outlook for profit margins is one of the big considerations in this regard. The consensus view is that margins can only go lower from here as the cycle is old and input costs are rising. The work from our strategists suggests that commodity prices have historically tended to be positively correlated to profit margins. Also, wages link to margins is not straightforward. In fact, when unemployment rate goes down, margins move higher. Our economists expect unemployment rate to keep falling for at least the next 7-8 quarters. The key for margins is the operating leverage, as they are always positively correlated to GDP growth. Looking at ’15-’16 mid cycle correction episode, margins cyclically fell, but rebounded as growth stabilised. The same might follow again, with stronger profits and margins into the end of this year.

JPMorgan

  

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EZB-Direktorin Lautenschläger: "Erst wenn der Arbeitsmarkt leergefegt ist, beginnen Löhne zu steigen"

Die EZB habe unterschätzt, wie lange es dauert, bis nach der Krise die Erholung bei den Menschen ankommt, sagt EZB-Direktorin Sabine Lautenschläger

derstandard.at/2000100545626/EZB-Direktorin-Lautenschlaeger-Erst-wenn-der-Arbeitsmarkt-leergefegt-ist-b eginnen

  

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>EZB-Direktorin Lautenschläger: "Erst wenn der Arbeitsmarkt
>leergefegt ist, beginnen Löhne zu steigen"
>

Falsch - erst wenn der Arbeitsmarkt leergefegt UND aus Drittländern auch niemand mehr kommen will, beginnen die Löhne zu steigen

  

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Our economists have made upward forecast revisions, albeit minor ones, for the first time in several months. US Q1 GDP was upgraded from 1.5% to 2% and China full-year GDP from 6.2% to 6.4%. More broadly, this week's final PMIs confirm stabilization for the global economy (headline and new orders ticked up for second straight month), but all due to services and mainly due to EM Asia. Global manufacturing and Europe remain in a rut.

JPMorgan

  

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Equity markets moved to fresh year-to-date highs, and are now only 2-3% below the all-time record MSCI World close. The strength was primarily driven by inflection higher in Chinese manufacturing PMIs, but increased optimism over US-China trade deal also added to the positive sentiment. Regionally, EM outperformed DM as EM FX reversed some of the weakness from the past two weeks. At the sector level, Cyclicals made new ytd highs versus Defensives driven by Materials and IT. Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive on the outlook for equities, believing that the current market backdrop has similarities to ’15-’16 mid cycle correction episode, rather than to the end of the cycle. They find the Growth – Policy trade-off as very supportive at present, with Fed having potentially turned too dovish, while at the same time the evidence of a pickup in Chinese activity is building. Jobless claims, a key indicator, just printed the best reading for the current cycle. Admittedly, the recent rally has been very strong and Q1 results are likely to be mixed, but they advise using any dips to add further, as investor positioning is still light. China and the US remain their top regional picks. Sectorwise, they keep a preference for Commodities and Tech. They continue to remain unexcited by Banks, preferring Insurance, but think the time to buy Banks might be nearing, especially as bond yields are close to capitulation territory.

JPMorgan

  

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ich sehe es viel einfacher. neben krieg oder ähnlichen katastrophen, gibt es zur zeit nur einen möglichen
trigger für kollabierende aktienmärkte. eine nachhaltige geldpolitische zinswende bei den relevanten weltwährungen.

weniger wegen alternativer anlage, sondern in erster linie wegen signifikanter verschlechterung operativer
ergebnise und mögliche liquiditätsengpässe in der realwirtschaft, mit negativen auswirkungen auf das
investitionsklima sowohl im staatlichen wie auch im privaten sektor. allein die fianzwirtschaft könnte wieder
bessere zeiten erleben.

  

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JPMorgan Says Stock Traders Are Looking at the Wrong Yield Curve

Equity investors have been worried about the wrong yield curve, according to a strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.


There’s concern that the recent inversion of the yield curve is a sell signal for the market, but critically there’s an average 18-month lag between such a move and the onset of a recession, Mislav Matejka said in a note to investors Monday. The strategist recommends looking at the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields -- which is about 18 basis points away from inversion -- instead of using the inverted 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield difference that has stock traders on edge.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-08/jpmorgan-says-stock-traders-are-lookin g-at-the-wrong-yield-curve

  

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So bewegt sich laut Erste Bank das Markt-KGV
hierzulande für 2020 bei 8,8, während es für Europa mit 13,1
angegeben wird. Auch bei der durchschnittlichen Dividendenrendite
hat Österreich gegenüber Europa demnach mit 4,6%
zu 3,6% die Nase vorne.

Erste Bank

  

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• Our Global Equity strategists continue to believe that the current market backdrop has similarities to the ’15-’16 mid cycle correction. They are constructive on equities given the turn in Chinese data, dovish Fed and a potential USD peak. They are encouraged by the clear improvement in Chinese activity momentum most recently, reflected in the strong PMI prints, better credit data and an uptick in M1. They advise buying into any weakness as positioning continues to be light. They address the recent concerns regarding the inversion of the 10Y- 3M yield curve, arguing that the 10Y-2Y spread has not inverted yet, and could even steepen in 2H on the back of the improvement in global growth. The key point to note, is that there is a big lag between the curve inversion and the equity falls/onset of a recession. The current level of US 10Y – 2Y spread is consistent with double digit S&P500 returns over the next year. Finally, they highlight that on this occasion the inverted yield curve signal might be saying more about the subdued inflation expectations than about the future growth prospects, as : 1) Monetary conditions do not appear tight, current real rates are near zero, when they averaged 3% at the point of the past 6 inversions. 2) Current spread between the US and German 10y bond yield is at a 30 year high, which could be anchoring long US yields to some extent and 3) term premia is outright negative and at the lowest point in at least the last 50 years.

JPMorgan

  

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This will probably be the most upbeat note you will read on Germany this month.

Our view of a return to trend GDP growth in the euro area is certainly not consensus. Far easier to only focus on the weakness of the German manufacturing PMI (44.1) than highlight the acceleration seen in wages (which no one believes anyway) or do any fundamental analysis of the detailed flow of funds and National Account data for the fourth quarter.

The fact of the matter is that German household disposable incomes grew by 3.8% in the year to Q4 2018 (5.2% annualised on the quarter). There have been individual quarters when German household disposable income growth was slightly stronger, but one effectively needs to go back to the bursting of the tech bubble in Q4 2001 to see a similar period of sustained strength in household incomes. To put this in context the German manufacturing PMI was the weakest reading since only July 2012.

2001 was also a year when, expressed a share of disposable incomes, outstanding household debt in Germany was higher than that of the UK and US (strange but true) and followed 2000, a year when non-financial corporations in Germany were running a deficit of 6.2% of GDP. If the German housing market was rolling over we would be more concerned, but this is not what the data tells us, nor what we could see on the ground in Frankfurt last week. Another bias when many commentators talk about the German economy is to only see it through the prism of manufacturing and downplay the importance of the much larger service sector, which is now outperforming again.

The flip-side of the strength of household incomes has been a squeeze on profit margins of German non-financial corporations. Q4 2018 can be seen as something of an outlier, but if the German economy starts to pick-up momentum again, underpinned by a buoyant service sector and, in a world of zero interest rates, a further acceleration in lending, then the direction of travel for profit margins is clear (up).

  

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Brezinschek: Börsenaufschwung geht weiter, USA dynamischer als Europa

Geldpolitik belastet Euroraum-Banken: TLTRO III könnte helfen - Notenbanker: Wirtschaftsbelebung im zweiten Halbjahr möglich - "Europa braucht einheitliche Linie zu US-Handelsthemen"

Die globalen Aktienmärkte werden ihren moderaten Aufschwung im laufenden zweiten Quartal fortsetzen, glaubt Raiffeisen-Chefanalyst Peter Brezinschek. Auch über die Jahresmitte hinaus - im dritten Quartal - dürfte diese Entwicklung anhalten, sofern dies nicht politisch konterkariert wird. Die Dynamik sei dabei in den USA stärker als in Europa, erklärte der Experte am Donnerstag vor Journalisten.

Freigemacht worden dafür sei der Weg ja durch die März-Sitzung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), aber auch Äußerungen von Fed-Chef Jerome Powell, der am 20. März den Zinserhöhungszyklus für die USA de facto für beendet erklärt habe. Amerika weise aktuell mehr Dynamik auf. Dort jage ein Rekord den anderen, in Europa noch nicht. Bei uns sei der Finanzsektor stärker, leide aber jetzt und wohl auch 2020 unter der Geldpolitik.

Die Eurozonen-Banken müssten derzeit um die 8 Mrd. Euro an negativen Einlagezinsen zahlen, diese Belastung könnte sich durch neue Langfristdarlehen (TLTRO III) auf 4 bis 5 Mrd. Euro im Jahr reduzieren, schätzt Brezinschek. Die neuen Kredite könnten zu Null- oder sogar Negativzinsen bereitgestellt werden, näheres dazu könnte man im Juni wissen. Sollte es beim Einlagesatz (von 0,4 Prozent) unter bestimmten Bedingungen Erleichterungen bzw. Refundierungen für bestimmte Institute geben - also einen gespaltenen Einlagesatz -, so würden davon Banken aus Frankreich, Deutschland, Luxemburg und den Niederlanden am meisten profitieren.

Von der IWF/Weltbank-Jahrestagung mitgebracht hat der RBI-Experte die Einschätzung von Spitzennotenbankern aus dem Euroraum, dass es "keine Rezession" gebe und dass sich die Wirtschaft im zweiten Halbjahr "leicht beleben" könnte. Die Kritik an Details von Prognosen der EZB-Ökonomen teilt Brezinschek nicht, denn letztlich sei es egal, ob irgendein Anstieg ein oder nur 0,8 Prozent ausmache - das hänge vom jeweiligen Basiseffekt ab, "weil wir 2018 ein schlechtes zweites Halbjahr hatten". Wichtig sei, wie hoch in den nächsten Vierteljahren bis ins Jahr 2020 hinein das jeweilige Wachstum im Quartalsabstand ausmache, betont der Analyst.

Auch den jüngsten vermeintlichen Stimmungs-Dämpfer durch den Rücksetzer beim viel beachteten deutschen ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex diese Woche - und auch die Einkaufsmanagerindex-Daten (PMI) aus der Vorwoche - relativiert Brezinschek. An Schwung verloren habe lediglich die Industrie, nicht aber die Dienstleistungen. Die Industrie stelle aber nur 15 bis 23 Prozent Anteil, der 2 bis 2 1/2 Prozent wachsende Servicesektor jedoch 70 Prozent. "Da komme ich insgesamt dann trotzdem noch auf ein Wachstum."

Die am Freitag in den USA anstehende Erstschätzung des BIP-Anstiegs im Erstquartal werde mit vermutlich 2,2 oder 2,3 Prozent "gar nicht so schlecht" ausfallen - vor allem, wenn man den Government Shutdown mitberücksichtigt, also den Stillstand vieler US-Behörden wegen des Budgetstreits. Der Außenhandel dürfte bis März sehr gut gelaufen sein, auch die Investitionen. Ein Zinssenkungsbedarf sei für die US-Notenbank nicht gegeben, auch die Diskussion dazu dürfte sich hinauszögern, vermutet Brezinschek nach der IWF-Tagung. Dort habe Vize-Notenbankchef Richard Clarida von einem ausgezeichneten Umfeld für die US-Konjunktur gesprochen und davon, dass die Geldpolitik das unterstützen werde. Beim nächsten Fed-Meeting am 1. Mai werde wohl die Angemessenheit der US-Geldpolitik betont. Auch die nicht mehr weiter gesunkenen Renditen zeigten, dass die Fed ein ruhigeres Fahrwasser beschreiten wolle.

Zu den Handelsthemen Europas mit den USA müssten sich vor allem Deutschland und Frankreich noch einigen - insbesondere sollte Paris bereit sein, an den Verhandlungstisch mit den USA zu gehen, so Brezinschek. Derzeit erhebe Europa keine Stimme und finde keine einheitliche Linie, was etwa Intellectual Property Rights (Geistiges Eigentum) und Zollabbau betreffe. Sollten die USA weitere Fortschritte mit China erzielen, werde Europa nächste Stoßrichtung sein. US-Finanzminister Steven Mnuchin und der Handelsbeauftragte Robert Lighthizer wollen ab 30. April in Peking mit ihren Verhandlungspartnern über eine mögliche Handelsvereinbarung beider Länder beraten.

Die aktuelle US-Berichtssaison ist aus Raiffeisen-Research-Sicht recht gut verlaufen, selbst wenn man die positiven Effekte für die Firmen durch die US-Steuerreform außer acht lässt. Bis dato hätten rund 27 Prozent der S&P-500-Unternehmen Quartalszahlen vorgelegt - rund 81 Prozent hätten die in sie gestellten Gewinnerwartungen übertroffen. Zudem liege der Saldo der Gewinnüberraschungen mit 54 Prozentpunkten über dem 5-Jahres-Median.

Die Gewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen würden, nach den sehr guten Resultaten von 2018, etwas schwächer ausfallen. So liege das erwartete Gewinnwachstum für 2019 deutlich unter 5 Prozent, wobei der Trend ganz klar Richtung Süden gehe. Letzteres zeige auch der Saldo aus den positiven und negativen Gewinnrevisionen für den S&P 500 für die nächsten 12 Monate, wobei zuletzt klar die negativen Revisionen überwogen hätten. Allerdings, betonte Brezinschek ausdrücklich, könnte der Saldo es zur Jahresmitte 2019 wieder in den positiven Bereich gehen.

  

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How high is equity supply?

• US IPO activity is currently booming as the founders and owners of mature private technology companies see a window of opportunity to cash out after missing out last year.
• Annualized, the value of US IPOs during the first four months of this year exceeds the previous high seen in 1999 at the peak of the dot com bubble.
• One reason this year’s US IPO boom is not creating indigestion in equity markets is that it is small in volume terms, i.e. after adjusting for the size of the US public equity market.
• Another reason is that equity offering activity has been rather weak this year outside the US including secondary offerings.
• It is thus not surprising that global net equity supply proxies such as the change in the free float of the MSCI AC World index remain depressed.
• Therefore we believe this year’s US IPO boom presents little threat to global net equity supply which has been hovering close to zero since 2016 in an unprecedented run.
• In our mind, any threat to equity markets for this year stems from potential changes in equity demand rather than supply.


JPMorgan

  

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• We are entering the seasonally weaker part of the year which could call for some consolidation, especially given the very strong year-to-date upmove. Having said that, our global equity strategists believe that any weakness remains a buying opportunity, as the rally is likely to gain a fundamental confirmation in 2H. The strategy team is expecting Chinese and European PMIs to move higher into year end, which should support better earnings delivery. The Q1 results are generally coming out better than the reduced expectations. US revenue growth in particular is healthy. Furthermore, they believe that bond yields are likely to inflect higher, which could drive a broadening in market participation. Their core OW was Tech and they were unexcited by Banks over the past year, but have last week upgraded the Banking sector to OW. Banks were the worst performing sector over the past 12 months and have become cheap. Banks are a key play on improving global activity trends and potentially higher bond yields. In addition, peripheral spreads are well behaved, with Banks likely to benefit from this. Italian NPLs as a share of total loans are falling sharply and Banks have reported notable improvement in balance sheets. Euribor curve drag might not get much worse and credit spreads are holding in. They fund this move by taking profits on Insurance, as the sector appears to have overshot bond yields. In addition, they also reduced Healthcare from N to UW as the group trades inversely with bond yields and could be impacted adversely by US politics.

JPMorgan

  

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• Equity markets retreated sharply from YTD highs as trade uncertainty returned, with US announcing additional tariffs on $200bn of Chinese exports. All key indices were in the red, with US holding up the best. Defensive sectors reversed some of their recent weakness vs Cyclicals.
• Our Global Equity strategists have been flagging that markets appear complacent, with several technical measures looking stretched and with stocks entering the seasonally weaker part of the year. The recent escalation in US-China trade conflict provided the excuse for the pullback. While the uncertainty will likely linger, our strategists remain constructive on the medium-term equity outlook, and recommend using the weakness to add further to equities. While there is limited visibility on trade direction from here, they believe that an eventual compromise is still the most likely outcome. Further, they highlight that the fundamental backdrop for equities remains strong. EPS revisions in the US have turned positive for the first time since October, and are bottoming out across most other regions. At the same time, Q1 earnings season has proven to be healthier than consensus feared. US revenue growth in particular is holding up well. They emphasize that stronger earnings and better macro should drive the next leg higher in equities in the 2H19. Key recessionary signals are far from flashing red: credit markets remain supportive, real rates are near zero and the labour market is strong. The growth-policy trade-off remains positive for stocks, in their view.

JPMorgan

  

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Ich bin seit über 10 Jahren auf dem Mail-Verteiler von Tilson, ein Buffett-Fan. So habe ich z.B das Transcript der Berkshire- HV bekommen.


Whitney Tilson Taking $10K Bets That Elon Musk Is Full Of Sh!t
Tilson v Musk is a fight we'd pay to see...not a lot, but we'd pay.

----

The point is that Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a zillion miles from Musk’s promise of Level 5 by the end of this year and a fleet of a million robotaxis by the end of next year.

You want to do a bet for charity that Tesla doesn’t come within a year of either of those promises (on that back of which, he raised over $2 billion)?

I’ll extend this bet to anyone – up to $10,000.

https://dealbreaker.com/2019/05/whitney-tilson-pretty-sure-elon-musk-is-full-of-it

  

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Von Whitney Tilson:

A smart friend of mine with a risk factor I hadn't considered:

The market is significantly discounting the importance of the Huawei executive order. Trump's attempt to ban Huawei will force Xi's hand into an all-out trade war because he cannot back down on this.

Huawei is controlled by the military branch of the Chinese government. Although many people look at China as a monolithic one-party system, there are actually three competing factions. The military, the strongest faction, has massive investments in the economy – and hence massive income sources from it.

(It is the largest standing in the army in the world. Part of the reason that Xi cannot negotiate the removal of the artificial islands in the South China Sea is that it is an entirely military operation.)

An attack on Huawei is an attack on a leading Chinese institution. The military is playing up nationalism and gearing up for war – economic or otherwise. I would expect China to stop a ship in the South China Sea and impound it for inspection.

I think the market is completely missing the risk of the executive order.

  

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>Von Whitney Tilson:
>
>A smart friend of mine with a risk factor I hadn't
>considered:
>
>The market is significantly discounting the importance of the
>Huawei executive order. Trump's attempt to ban Huawei will
>force Xi's hand into an all-out trade war because he cannot
>back down on this.
>
>Huawei is controlled by the military branch of the Chinese
>government. Although many people look at China as a monolithic
>one-party system, there are actually three competing factions.
>The military, the strongest faction, has massive investments
>in the economy – and hence massive income sources from it.
>
>(It is the largest standing in the army in the world. Part of
>the reason that Xi cannot negotiate the removal of the
>artificial islands in the South China Sea is that it is an
>entirely military operation.)
>
>An attack on Huawei is an attack on a leading Chinese
>institution. The military is playing up nationalism and
>gearing up for war – economic or otherwise. I would expect
>China to stop a ship in the South China Sea and impound it for
>inspection.
>
>I think the market is completely missing the risk of the
>executive order.

Darum haben wir 'Helios' geübt.

Ich schließe mich an seinen Gedankengang an, doch als 'risk factor' würde ich es nicht bezeichnen. Tilson ist mir zu negativ, hoffentlich shorted er nicht zu viel.

Auch wenn Trumps Vorgehen als unsensibel erscheint, finde ich gut, dass jemand den Chinesen Kontra gibt. Sie kaufen sich seit Jahren bei Europas Unternehmen ein, umgekehrt existieren jede Menge an Hürden für ausländische Investoren in China.

  

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In our last note we pointed to the risk that with the market at all-time highs and the strong GDP print, there is no urgency for the president to quickly conclude the China trade deal. Starting with the May 5th tweets, prospects for quick trade resolution suffered a setback. Global equity markets have now adjusted lower to reflect an increased probability of trade breakdown and resulting economic slowdown. Our base case was, and still is, that the trade war with China will get resolved this year, and we remain cautiously constructive.

The reason for our stance is the very low positioning across virtually all types of equity investors, and so far limited technical damage by the recent increase in volatility. Observing actions of the US administration makes it apparent to us that the tone and sentiment towards the trade war changes with roughly ~100 points on the S&P 500. The market moving higher generally leads to a hardened stance and more confrontational tone, and the market moving lower generally leads to either verbal or actual progress towards trade resolution. In 2017, we introduced the concept of a ‘Trump put’ which has now evolved into a ‘Trump collar’ (i.e. limited upside due to escalation of the trade conflict). We think that the Trump put is 3-4% out of the money, and would kick in well before the ‘Fed put’ (which is likely 10-15% out of the money). We maintain our (probability-weighted) year-end price target of 3000 for the S&P with an expectation that trade resolution would lead to markets moving significantly above (e.g. 3200), and a complete trade breakdown would lead to the market finishing significantly below our price target (e.g. 2550)

JPMorgan

  

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To be clear, we are not advocating tariffs as the way forwards. It is just that they create some winners amongst all the losers, with both the ECB and the UN recently suggesting that the EU, the biggest trading bloc globally, could benefit from trade diversion. This seems to have been lost amongst all the negativity surrounding the subject. It is especially important if the ECB has a different read on all such challenges than many other commentators and market participants, who may be looking at things very much through the prism of the US.

Indeed, figures released today show, seasonally adjusted, EU-28 exports of goods to China (worth an annual €215bn) growing by 2.3% in the first quarter, and by 11.1% on year.

  

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Trade war heat is on

• While the fundamentals of the global economy remain strong, the resurgent trade war is shaking markets. Equity pullbacks of around five per cent are normal occurrences in an average bull market, but a large, unexpected change (perceived or actual) to the global trading order would ensure the market correction goes well beyond that.

• We’re not there yet though. The tariff moves announced so far will only have a small direct effect on growth and inflation in major economies. Second-order dynamics via financial markets and confidence will be more significant and less predictable. There is also the possibility of further escalation by the US or a more combustible retaliation from China, either of which would further inflame tensions and elevate risks.

• Apart from the trade war, economic fundamentals are actually developing more positively than many expected this year. China’s economy grew more than forecast in the first quarter, and forward-looking indicators of European activity have steadily risen from their recent troughs. The US labour market remains the envy of the world, with wages continuing to rise and the expansion set to continue at a solid pace.

• Two other risks are worth watching. First, Brexit developments have deteriorated over the last month and the odds of a general election have risen further. Second, we think the market is in danger of misjudging the Fed. Next year, pricing looks fair given the balance of risks, but the bar for a near-term cut is higher than many realise.

• Taking these views in aggregate, we continue to structurally favour US equities and are more neutral on rates. However to get a trade deal we may need some pain in equities first to focus minds. In currencies, we expect the Chinese yuan to depreciate as a result of the renewed trade war.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Global equity markets showed some stabilisation this week, but headlines over US – China trade continued to dominate market sentiment. European equities recovered with Cyclicals outperforming Defensives. At a sector level, Energy outperformed in Europe as oil prices rebounded.
• Our Global Equity strategists have been flagging that equity markets could see a mid-high single digit consolidation, as equities looked stretched on technicals and the seasonals turned unfavourable. They acknowledge the low visibility with respect to the next trade move, however, they believe that an eventual compromise is still the most probable outcome and they advise using weakness as an opportunity to add equity positions. Markets are likely to be supported by resilient fundamentals and improving earnings trends. EPS revisions for the US have moved to positive territory and are improving across other key regions. Our strategists highlight the1Q19 earnings season came in better than expected in both the US and in Europe. US companies surprised by 6% on EPS, while European companies beat expectations by 2%. Both EPS and sales growth were softer in Europe, despite a weaker Euro. The latest reporting season helped reaffirming their continued relative preference for the US over Europe.

JPMorgan

  

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Neuwahl - Erste Group sieht vorerst keine Reaktion an Finanzmärkten
Analyse: Keine sichtbaren Auswirkungen auf Aktienkurse und Staatsanleihen - Wachstumsprognose von 1,7 Prozent für 2019 bekräftigt

Das Auseinanderbrechen der ÖVP-FPÖ-Regierungskoalition in Österreich nach der Veröffentlichung des Ibiza-Skandalvideos hat bisher zu keiner Reaktion auf den Finanzmärkten geführt, weder auf die Staatsanleihen noch auf die Aktienkurse hätten sich die Ereignisse spürbar ausgewirkt, sagen die Analysten der Erste Group.
Falls alle FPÖ-Regierungsmitglieder zurücktreten sollten, könnte die ÖVP auch eine Alleinregierung bilden, heißt es in der Analyse. Bis zur Neuwahl des Nationalrats im September sei es nun das Ziel und die Aufgabe des Bundespräsidenten und des Bundeskanzlers, die Stabilität im Land aufrecht zu erhalten.

Profitiert habe die Regierung vom starken Wirtschaftsaufschwung in den Jahren 2017 und 2018 sowie von der Steuerreform der Vorgängerregierung im Jahr 2016.

Von der neuen Regierung wird eine Fortsetzung der Budgetkonsolidierung erwartet. "Wir glauben nicht, dass diese Ereignisse unsere makroökonomischen Prognosen beeinflussen werden", heißt es in der Schnellanalyse. Die Erste Group geht weiterhin davon aus, dass Österreichs Wirtschaft heuer um 1,7 Prozent wachsen wird, nach einem BIP-Plus von 2,7 Prozent im Vorjahr. Die Wachstumsverlangsamung sei vor allem auf die globale Konjunkturabkühlung zurückzuführen, von der auch Österreichs wichtigste Handelspartner betroffen seien.

  

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• Global equity markets struggled again this week, with most equity indices in the red, as trade uncertainty continued to dominate market narrative. Interestingly, despite falling markets, EM equities outperformed DM and Cyclicals held ground in the US.

• Our Global Equity strategists have been highlighting that with equity markets close to all-time highs and various technical measures looking stretched some near term consolidation was likely. They looked for mid-to-high single digit seasonal weakness, perhaps 5-8%. Stocks are so far down 6% from their highs seen in early May, but the trade uncertainty remains the wildcard, and could extend the weakness. Having said that, they still see higher equities before the next recession strikes, and would ultimately add into the dip. Regionally, they continue to favor US versus Eurozone. Within Eurozone, they have recently cut their relative preference for Exporters versus Domestics, following the 25% outperformance of the former since Jan ‘18. On the other side, in light of the escalating political risks in the UK, they have neutralized their positive view on UK domestic sectors, believing the group becomes a lose-lose proposition once Theresa May steps down. Overall, they believe the Value style underperformance is getting extreme and some rotation is due.

JPMorgan

  

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Via Whitney Tilson:

Here are thoughts from my friend Michael Kao of Akanthos Capital Management:

I may be in the minority on this, but I don't think this "trade war" is going to hurt us that much besides some CPI increases – hell, the Fed has been TRYING to gin CPI above 2%! China, however, is screwed.

What can China do to us?
Not buy more goods? Oops, they already sell $500 billion more than they buy.
Tax our car imports? Oops, they're already at 22.5%.
Not buy our pork? Oops, they just lost 1/3 of their herd.
Not buy our soy/food? Oops, they're short on food, we are long.
Not buy our oil? Oops, WTI trades $10 lower than Brent and is the cheapest oil in the world.
Not allow our internet search? Oops, they never let Google in.
Not allow our e-commerce? Oops, they never let Amazon in.
Not allow our social media? Oops, they never let Facebook in.
Oh right, they have the nuclear option – they can dump our Treasuries. Oops, with 2's/10's flat, our yield curve could USE some steepening. Our banks would love that.

Checkmate, China.

  

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>No supply of rare earth? oops, that could cause a desaster.


Make life of US companies in China miserable? Oops...

  

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Margin of Safety

mE interessante Überlegungen dazu von Aswath Damodaran

Specifically, my margin of safety varies across stocks and across time. It varies across time, as my opportunity set expands and shrinks. Specifically, if I lived in a world where I could invest all my money in stocks with a margin of safety that exceeds 50%, would I? Of course, but I do not. In fact, if am using a margin of safety of 25% and ending up with 50% of my portfolio in cash, that is a clear signal that my margin of safety has become too large. More generally, your margin of safety should depend on:

A. Diversification: The more concentrated your portfolio gets, the greater your margin of safety has to be.

B. Payoff asymmetry: Investments seldom have symmetric payoffs. Specifically, if you have a long right tail on your distribution (the possibility, small though it might be, that your stock could be a ten-bagger), you should settle for a smaller margin of safety. In effect, you have optionality in your investment as your ally.

C. Downside floor: There is a floor on equity value, and it is usually zero. If that floor gets higher, either because there is the possibility of a bailout or because your company has assets that could be valuable to an acquirer, you will settle for a lower margin of safety.

  

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In a performance that sums-up his term at the ECB, Draghi delivered something for everyone at today’s press conference. As expected, the overall message was not fundamentally different from the meetings earlier in the year: the recovery is fragile and the risks around the outlook are high, low inflation is a worry, and the euro area continues to require a substantial degree of policy accommodation. In fact, much of the press conference was spent by Draghi reiterating that the ECB still has plenty left in its arsenal to support the economy if it becomes necessary. From introducing tiering and cutting rates further to restarting QE, every option has been discussed and remains on the table. And yet, when all was said and done, the measures announced today were clearly less dovish than some had expected, with Draghi firmly pushing back against the market’s speculation that the ECB was preparing to take further easing steps.

  

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In terms of today’s meaningful actions, the ECB’s new forecasts, its forward guidance and the conditions of the new TLTRO appear to be designed almost as a direct challenge to the markets which have become entirely preoccupied with the idea that the global economy is on a brink of a recession. Much will clearly depend on whether the US-China dispute escalates from here, and the ECB may yet reverse course. But, at the moment, rather than panicked, the ECB appears almost bemused that market sentiment and perceptions of where rates could go from here seem to be driven by a single issue of a trade dispute which doesn’t directly involve the euro area.

As an acknowledgment of the fact that risks around the outlook remain elevated and are unlikely to dissipate quickly (Draghi made the point that while in March there was some hope the US/China and Brexit could be resolved quickly, this is not the most likely outcome anymore), the ECB amended its forward guidance and extended the time horizon for interest rates to remain at their present level “through the first half of 2020”. The key takeaway here, of course, is that this wording directly pushes against the prospect of rates being cut over this period, which is what the markets were starting to price in. Mid-2020 also provides Draghi’s successor with a convenient Goldilocks (not too long, not too short) period before further changes to guidance may need to be announced.

 

In terms of the forecasts, as expected, 2019 GDP numbers were bumped up a touch on the back of better than expected growth in Q1; while core inflation numbers for this year were revised down. More importantly, however, the ECB left its 2020 and 2021 core inflation forecasts unchanged. This is an important development as far as the new ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane putting down a marker: the markets should pay less attention to its own measures of inflation expectations, and more attention to the fundamentals such as falling unemployment, stronger wage growth, as well as broader measures of inflation such as the GDP deflator. For instance, today’s Q1 data showed that, in aggregate, euro area GDP deflator had now risen by 0.4% QoQ in each of the last four quarters - this compares to readings of 0.2%-0.3% in the previous three plus years. Also, in Q1, both the French and the Italian GDP deflator printed the strongest reading since 2015. And the German GDP deflator is now at over 2% YoY for the first time since Q1 2015. This will not be on the market's radar but will matter to the Governing Council and help give it confidence that inflationary pressures in the economy are building.

 

Finally, with regards to the new TLTRO, the ECB delivered exactly what it said it would deliver earlier in the year – offering banks loans on less generous terms than in 2016.

  

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• US/China tariffs are already costing US Households an estimated ~$600/year and could increase to ~$1,550 with Phase III implementation. An important distinction between China Phase III tariffs and preceding ones is that the majority of goods are Consumption and Capital whereas previous tariffs (Lists 1-3 or Phase I and II) focused on Intermediate goods (see Figure 10). This suggests that the consumer impact could be even greater. In fact, based on tariff cost estimates, we could see the average estimated annual cost per household increase from ~$600 to ~$1,550 with Phase III implementation, which would more than offset the benefits received from Tax Act estimated at ~$1,300. The impact to households could rise further if tariffs on Mexico are implemented — a full 25% could increase the household cost by an additional ~$1,000 bringing the total impact to ~$2,500. Since tariffs are regressive, the impact from reduced spending could be immediate for discretionary goods and services, especially from lower-income households.

JPMorgan

  

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The inversion at the front end of the curve used to be a US-only phenomenon up until recently. But the past two weeks have seen a sea change in global interest rate markets with the inversion at the front end becoming the norm rather than the exception. This is shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2 which depict expectations of central bank policy rates at the front end of Developed Market yield curves. With the exception of Scandinavian countries, i.e. Sweden and Norway, all the other yield curves are downward sloping at the front end as markets are now pricing in cuts from most DM central banks over the next year or so.

JPMorgan

  

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Despite negative headlines on trade and some softer activity data, equities arrested their recent weakness this week. Materials were the top performer in the US, while Communication Services suffered, driven lower by FANGs.Our Global Equity strategists argued in early May, that technical indicators appeared stretched and sentiment indicators complacent, looking for a mid-to-high single digit correction. In their June Chartbook, they acknowledged that trade remains the wild card for the near term sentiment; however, they see relative equity-bond valuations as attractive, positioning as light and advise to be buying the dip. Fundamentally, they believe the Growth-Policy tradeoff is constructive for stocks and continue to believe that global equities will make new highs before the next US recession strikes. It is still premature to expect a recession over the next quarters, in their view, as one never had a downturn with resilient labor market, low credit spreads and near zero real rates. Finally, policy support is likely to get stronger – JPM is looking for two Fed cuts this year.

JPMorgan

  

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European banks: TLTRO III

The view depends on where you are looking from

A bank with significant TLTRO II funding and low excess deposits will probably see the terms for the new programme as reasonably attractive. For a bank with plenty of surplus deposits and decent access to public markets, TLTRO III adds little. The structure of TLTRO III is less attractive for banks than its predecessor given its shorter maturity, the inability to repay early and the slightly higher relative cost. We think there will be limited take-up in northern Europe, especially as covered bonds are cheaper for many core banks, and that total take up from the periphery will also be lower than existing drawings. Italian banks will likely be the biggest users. This fits with Draghi’s description of the new programme as a “backstop”.

  

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Niedrige Zinsen als „neue Normalität“

Die wichtigste Notenbank der Welt wird die Zinsen schon bald wieder senken. Die globale Geldpolitik steuert auf eine neue Ära zu. Einst in Stein gemeißelte Regeln gelten nicht mehr.

er wissen will, was die Währungshüter dieser Welt aktuell so denken, sollte genau zuhören, wenn John Williams spricht. Als Chef des New Yorker Ablegers der Zentralbank Fed hat er ein gewichtiges Wort mitzureden, wenn die wichtigste Notenbank nächste Woche über den weiteren Zinspfad berät. Entsprechend ist der Saal im Keller des „Council on Foreign Relations“ in Manhattan bis auf den letzten Platz gefüllt, als Williams vor das Mikrofon tritt: „Sehr niedrige Zinsen sind die neue Normalität“, stellt der Geldpolitiker klar.

Paywall:

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/international/5642110/Niedrige-Zinsen-als-neue-Norm alitaet

  

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Blackrock: Österreich bleibt wegen Osteuropa-Nähe attraktiv
Trotz Regierungskrise - Wiener Aktienmarkt sehr günstig bewertet - China-Wachstum, Handelsstreit und Italien bleiben zentrale Themen

Für die Investment-Experten von Blackrock gilt Österreich immer noch als stabiler Markt - auch nach den jüngsten Turbulenzen in der heimischen Innenpolitik. Im internationalen Vergleich - wo der Handelsstreit zwischen China, Unsicherheiten rund um Großbritannien und Italien sowie das schwächelnde Wachstum in China die Marktstimmung dominieren - stellte dies nur ein geringes Risiko dar.

"Österreich ist nach wie vor attraktiv für Investoren", sagte Martin Lück, Leiter der Kapitalmarktstrategie für Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz und Osteuropa bei Blackrock. Trotz der geplatzten Regierung sei nach der Neuwahl im Herbst nicht mit einer starken Verschiebung der politischen Machtverhältnisse zu rechnen. Auch eine höhere Verschuldung des Staates ist mittelfristig nicht in Sicht. "Daher sind die Anleihemärkte auch relativ entspannt geblieben", sagte Lück. Generell habe sich der Markt offenbar "ein dickeres Fell zugelegt", denn auch auf "viel mehr verstörende Meldungen" wie die Favoritenposition von Boris Johnson für die Nachfolge der britischen Premierministerin Theresa May hätten die Anleger kaum reagiert.

Die Gründe für die Attraktivität des österreichischen Marktes lägen in mehreren Faktoren: "Das liegt unter anderem am österreichischen Wachstum, das etwas über dem Eurozonen-Durchschnitt liegt", so Lück. Dem Land helfe besonders die starke wirtschaftliche Vernetzung in Osteuropa, wo das Wachstum im Vergleich nach wie vor überdurchschnittlich und die Arbeitslosigkeit sehr gering ist. Auf einen drohenden Arbeitskräftemangel, der die Wirtschaft bremsen könnte, habe Osteuropa bisher immer mit Arbeitskräftebeschaffung aus noch weiter östlich liegenden Ländern (Ukraine, Weißrussland) reagiert. "Hier sehe ich auch derzeit noch kein Ende der Fahnenstange", so Lück.

Ein Risiko könnte jedoch das "politische Klima" in Osteuropa sein, so Lück. Bei unterschiedlichen Interessen verglichen mit anderen Ländern der EU - beispielsweise in der Flüchtlingsfrage - könnte es zu einer Reduktion der EU-Förderungen für Osteuropa kommen. Dies würde dann das Wachstum bremsen und könnte auch Folgewirkungen für Österreich haben.

Ein weiterer Faktor sei, dass der österreichische Aktienmarkt sehr günstig bewertet ist. Die heurigen Abschläge beim ATX seien hauptsächlich konjunkturell bedingt und nicht vom österreichischen Regierungschaos ausgelöst gewesen, so Lück. Das ungebrochene Investorenvertrauen war zudem am Anleihemarkt sichtbar: Die Renditen österreichischer Staatsanleihen waren in den vergangenen Wochen unverändert niedrig.

Global betrachtet haben sich die Märkte heuer vor allem auf geopolitische Risiken und Wachstum in China konzentriert. Auch Italien mit seinem hohen Schuldenberg und seiner harten Konfrontationspolitik gegenüber den EU-Institutionen wird die Märkte im Jahresverlauf immer wieder beschäftigen, so Lück. Schließlich bleibt auch der Handelsstreit zwischen China und den USA im Fokus, wobei er eine Einigung noch vor Ende dieses Jahres für möglich hält.

  

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Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive on stocks in 2019, expecting the Growth-Policy trade-off to be better than it was in 2018, and keep US as the preferred region. Apart from the US, this week they upgraded Japanese equities to OW. They were unexcited by Japan for some time, but believe the risk-reward for the region is improving. Japan is the worst performing large DM market this year and valuations look very attractive, with P/B now below 2012 levels, post which Japan experienced a strong rebound. Positioning in the region is extremely light as well, with foreigners having withdrawn as much as JPY13trn from Japanese equities in ’18, the most in at least 35 years. The upcoming VAT hikes in October are a headwind but they could end up being postponed, and the potential adverse economic impact might not be as negative as what was seen in 2014, when the Japanese economy went into recession. In addition, the BoJ remains an active support as it continues to buy Japanese equities to the tune of 1% of Topix market cap annually, buybacks are accelerating, Japanese ROE is moving higher and the Topix-JPY gap has opened up. They fund the move by cutting EM from OW to N as relative valuations and positioning are not as attractive.

JPMorgan

  

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Fed remains unchanged on rates, pledges to 'sustain the expansion'

The Federal Reserve did not move on rates at the conclusion of its policysetting meeting June 19, but committed itself to acting “as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

The Fed elected to keep the benchmark interest rate within its target range of 2.25% to 2.5%, but new economic projections show more Fed officials seeing the case for a rate cut — or two — by the end of 2020.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-fed-june-meeting-interest-rates-130018529.html

  

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Yesterday the FOMC lowered their estimate of the long-run Fed funds rate to 2.5%, down from 2.8% in March. This may sound innocent but this is really important because for the past decade, the Fed has been arguing that monetary policy was accommodative and thereby boosting growth and inflation. The FOMC now sees monetary policy as neutral. Put differently, after a modest hiking cycle pushing the Fed funds rate up to 2.5% we are in the Fed’s view already at the long-run level of short rates, and the current level of the Fed funds rate is in their view not boosting growth or weighing on growth. It is quite striking how the Fed over a relatively short period has changed its view of the neutral Fed funds rate from above 4% to 2.5% today. A lower long-run Fed funds rate is of course a key argument for why we should expect lower levels of long rates.

  

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• Our Global Equity strategists keep their bullish equity view for 2019, believing that the Growth - Policy trade-off is much better than it was in 2018. Positioning is light, USD might be peaking and the yield curve stop flattening. They believe that even as the Fed undertakes cuts in 2H, this should not be seen as a confirmation that growth will weaken further, but as an insurance policy. The team this week advised to reverse their longstanding OW on Eurozone Exporters vs Domestic plays, partly given the 25% run ytd. They now think one should go outright long Domestic plays vs Exporters on the continent, driven by the potential bottoming out in Euro and a stabilization in domestic activity. M1 in the region has been picking up, which suggests the worst of the weakness is possibly behind us. In UK, they advise the reverse, to be long Exporters vs Domestic plays, as politics is likely to descend into a lose-lose proposition for domestic plays. On the other hand, the weaker GBP should provide relief to Exporters. Overall, they keep their preference for the US vs Europe, and look for a rotation in sector/style leadership in 2H.

JPMorgan

  

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The global outlook has deteriorated over the last month but central banks have been quick to react. For the time being this should ensure that the inevitable growth slowdown is kept in check.

The Fed is likely to lead the way in terms of central bank easing, and we now expect three rate cuts this year, starting at the July meeting. The ECB will then probably cut rates deeper into negative territory, and there is also scope for resuming asset purchases and extending forward guidance. Such accommodation will likely pressure other major central banks to respond with policy easing as well.

Against this backdrop of slower, but still positive, growth and coordinated central bank policy easing, investors will be forced to add risk. We maintain our longstanding view in favour of US equities and add some new fixed income trades. We believe European peripheral spreads have scope to tighten further versus bunds thanks to the ECB. Our view on the dollar is nuanced, as it looks set to depreciate against other developed market currencies but appreciate against emerging Asian currencies.

Risks remain ever-present though. The growth slow down could prove too much for central banks to deal with, Brexit issues will come back to the surface after a new PM is chosen next month, and trade tensions could resurface on very short notice.

Nevertheless, in spite of the risks, it feels hard to fight the central banks at the moment.

DB

  

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If there is a truce in the trade war at the G20, how long is the breaking distance for the damage the trade war has already done to global growth? The charts below show that there are significant downside risks in the near term to world trade, consumer confidence, ISM, employment growth, and capex. Even if the trade war eases, the runway for a “swoosh” higher in the data is likely to be at least a few months and more likely a few quarters as businesses will be looking for confirmation that the worst in the trade war is behind us before they begin to spend and hire again. To counter the ongoing slowdown in the data and the uncertainty of how much longer the trade war will continue, we see the Fed cutting rates in July, September, and December, and we see the ECB cutting rates in September. We still do not see a recession, but we continue to worry more about downside risks than upside risks to the outlook.

DB

  

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• After making fresh new highs last week, global equity markets were flattish this week, but with a strong internal rotation. At a sector/style level, there was a shift out of Growth into Value, with Commodities and Financials performing the strongest, and Defensive the worst.

While cognizant that near term market gyrations remain hostage to the trade headlines, our Global strategists maintain their bullish view for 2019. They believe that the Growth-Policy trade-off is far better than it was last year, with activity momentum potentially stabilizing given favorable base effects, the USD might be peaking and yield curve may re-steepen. They disagree with the widely held view that equities are pricing in a much more complacent macro outlook than bonds. Despite the strong ytd performance, equity market internals are portraying a very different picture. The price relative of Food&Beverages is consistent with US bond yields even lower than current. The valuation dispersion of Value/Growth styles is consistent with US 10 year yield as low as 1.5%. In their view, all these might prove to be too bearish and the upcoming central bank cuts should be seen as an insurance, rather than as a confirmation that growth needs to falter in 2H, with the resulting end of curve flattening.
They were cautious on Value style over the past year, but look for a rotation in market internals in 2H of the year, from Growth to Value.

JPMorgan

  

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Commerzbank Now Predicts ECB to Cut Deposit Rate 20 Bps in July
- “In order to send a strong signal, the ECB will likely lower the deposit rate by 20 basis points at the July meeting and not - as we had previously expected - by only 10 basis points,” Commerzbank says in note to clients.
- “At the same time, it is likely to keep alive speculation of a further rate cut and do nothing to dispel a belief that asset purchases will be resumed”
- “In order to mitigate the negative side effects of the interest rate cut, it is likely to introduce a tiered rate system by which banks would not have to pay a penalty rate on the full amount of their excess liquidity”

  

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RCB erwartet kräftige Zinssenkungen von EZB und Fed

Euro-Einlagensatz könnte auf minus 0,6 Prozent fallen - "Fed reduziert Leitzins noch vor US-Wahl um 100 Basispunkte" - Experte: Lagarde wird "konsensorientierter" auftreten als Draghi

Kräftige Zinssenkungen durch die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) und auch die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve erwarten die Experten der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB). Die EZB werde den Einlagensatz von minus 0,4 auf minus 0,6 Prozent senken - später vielleicht noch weiter - und die Fed den Leitzins in mehreren Schritten ab September um 100 Basispunkte.
Die EZB wolle mit dieser Maßnahme die Finanzierungsbedingungen in der Eurozone speziell in der Mitte der Zinskurve weiter lockern und die Markterwartung zur Inflation nach oben bringen, erklärte RCB-Analyst Gunter Deuber am Freitag vor Journalisten. Möglicherweise lege die EZB einen zu starken Fokus auf die Inflation, doch werde das auch dort diskutiert.

Durch die zu erwartende Berufung von IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde zur neuen EZB-Chefin - als Nachfolgerin von Mario Draghi - werde sich an der Geldpolitik im Euroraum "nichts ändern", glaubt Deuber. Sie werde aber etwas "konsensorientierter" auftreten als der Italiener. Viele Länder hätten sich angesichts der internationalen Unsicherheiten nach Draghi jemanden "pragmatischen" gewünscht, das sei in Hintergrundgesprächen deutlich geworden. Damit sei auch "klar" gewesen, dass der Präsident der Deutschen Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, der lang als Favorit galt, "nicht in den engeren Kandidatenkreis kommt". Lagarde werde mehr auf die "Hausmeinung" setzen, Draghi habe wiederholt versucht, den EZB-Rat in bestimmte Richtungen zu lenken.

Grund für "geldpolitische Hektik" oder "eine neue Lockerung" gebe es konjunkturell nicht, meinte Deuber. Für unmittelbare Konjunktur- oder gar Rezessions-Ängste gebe es keinen Grund: Als RCB sehe man lediglich eine konjunkturelle Abschwächung, sowohl in der Eurozone als auch, etwas stärker, in den USA. Besonders für 2020 würden die BIP-Prognosen der Experten für die USA weit auseinanderklaffen, eine so hohe Konjunkturunsicherheit am Markt sei selten. Im Konsens-Tief würden manche nur 0,5 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA im Jahr 2020 sehen. Eine Überhitzung oder wirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte in den USA "sehen wir nicht", betonte Deuber: "Daher sehen wir keine Rezession in den USA, sondern nur eine wirtschaftliche Abschwächung."

Die EZB werde 2019/20 sicher wieder ihr Anleihen-Kaufprogramm aufnehmen, voraussichtlich rund um den Jahreswechsel und mit einem geringen Kaufvolumen von vielleicht 30 Mrd. Euro pro Monat, so der Experte. Das habe mit den Inflationserwartungen zu tun, um die wieder langfristig auf ein höheres Niveau zu schleusen. Trete die EZB wieder in den Markt ein, sollte Italien auf absehbare Zeit kein Problem haben, sich zu refinanzieren. Die Senkung der Einlagenzinsen um 20 Basispunkte auf minus 60 ab Herbst - allenfalls mit einer Staffelung, um den Bankensektor nicht zu stark zu treffen - werde dann "sehr lang so bleiben". Und es gebe auch das Risiko, dass er später nochmals weiter abgesenkt werde. Dabei habe der Markt vergangenen Herbst noch mit einem Ausstieg aus der expansiven Geldpolitik gerechnet, erinnerte Deuber. Nun würden die Geldmarktzinsen lange negativ bleiben, die Renditen der deutschen Bundesanleihen bis 2036 im negativen Bereich, die japanischen "nur" bis zum Jahr 2032.

Die US-Notenbank Fed werde wohl ihr Zinsniveau um 100 Basispunkte, also einen ganzen Prozentpunkt, absenken, erstmals aber noch nicht im Juli, sondern eher erst im September - um 25 Basispunkte -, nimmt man bei der RCB an. Am Markt insgesamt wird mehrheitlich mit einem Start im Juli und einer sehr schnellen Vorgangsweise der Fed gerechnet. Noch vor der US-Präsidentenwahl sollte der Zinssenkungszyklus abgeschlossen sein. In den USA habe sich die Situation ebenfalls stark geändert, denn auch die Fed selbst habe noch im heurigen Jahr über Zinsanhebungen gesprochen, so Deuber.

  

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Globale Aktien

S&P 500 erreicht neues All-Time High bei 2.995 Punkten. Auf Wochensicht legte der Index um +2,4% zu. Der Weltaktienindex der entwickelten Märkte haussierte um +3% in EUR. Besonders Aktien aus dem Konsum- und Technologiesektor waren am Markt gefragt.

Die Wachstumsrate der Gewinne wird heuer voraussichtlich nachlassen, jedoch positiv sein. Der Mittelwert der Wachstumsrate der Gewinne beträgt für 2019 +0,2%. Dieser Wert wird von wenigen Ausreißern (z.B. Samsung Electronics, Surgutneftegaz) deutlich nach unten verzerrt. Zum Beispiel erwartet Samsung in 2019 einen Gewinnhalbierung von USD 36 Mrd. auf USD 18 Mrd.

Die für dieses Jahr erwartete Gewinnwachstumsrate wird daher realistischer vom Median repräsentiert. Dabei werden die Aktien nach ihren Wachstumsraten gereiht und das Wachstum der fünfhundertsten Aktie ermittelt. Dieser Wert beträgt heuer +4,5% und im kommenden Jahr +8,8%. Diese Ansicht zeigt auch, dass heuer 67% der Unternehmen einen Gewinnanstieg erwarten. Das erwartete Umsatzwachstum beträgt 2019 +2,5% (2020: +5,1%).

Globale Aktien sind derzeit moderat bewertet

Das erwartete KGV 2019 beträgt ca. 15,5x. Die für 2019 erwartete Dividendenrendite beträgt 2,7% (2020: 2,8%). Im Vergleich zu Staatsanleihen ist die Bewertung von Aktien sehr attraktiv. Die Renditen von globalen Staatsanleihen sind im letzten Quartal weiter gesunken. Ein globaler Staatsanleihen-Index für entwickelte Märkte weist nur mehr eine Rendite von 0,8% über alle Laufzeiten auf. Die Dividendenrendite von Aktien ist somit 1,7% p.a. höher. Da die Ausschüttungen der Unternehmen voraussichtlich moderat ansteigen werden, sind leichte Zuwächse der Dividendenzahlungen realistisch.

Leicht positiver Ausblick für globale Aktien im Q3 2019

Das Umsatz- und Gewinnwachstum der globalen Unternehmen bleibt moderat positiv. Die relative Attraktivität von Aktien gegenüber anderen Asset-Klassen begünstigt ebenfalls einen leicht positiven Ausblick für das dritte Quartal. Aufgrund der Abschwächung der globalen Wachstumsdynamik sollte die Volatilität an den Märkten ansteigen. Politische Risiken, wie der ungelöste Handelskonflikt der USA mit China, der Konflikt der USA mit dem Iran sowie ein von uns erwarteter Hard Brexit könnten die Schwankungen des globalen Aktienmarktes erhöhen. Nicht zyklische Sektoren sollten sich besser entwickeln als die zyklischen Branchen. Wir erwarten im Q3 einen moderaten Anstieg der globalen Indizes am unteren Ende einer Spanne von 0% bis +5%.

Erste Bank

  

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Börsen waren heuer schon auf Rekordkurs - Noch etwas Luft nach oben

RCB: Innenpolitik ohne Einfluss auf Kurse - "Party" für Immo-Werte - Von KÖSt-Senkung hätten Flughafen, Post, BAWAG, OMV, Verbund profitiert - Externe Risiken wirken immer weniger

Viele Börsen haben in den vergangenen Tagen ein Rekordhoch verzeichnet, in den USA und Europa. Die Luft ist noch nicht ganz heraußen, der Großteil der Anstiege dürfte aber schon vorbei sein. Die Turbulenzen in der heimischen Innenpolitik wirkten sich kaum auf die ATX-Performance aus. Die vorerst abgeblasene Senkung der Körperschaftsteuer (KÖSt) hätte bestimmte Aktien beflügeln können, so die RCB.
Der Wiener Börse-Leitindex ATX habe einen sehr starken Jahresstart hingelegt, während das zweite Quartal auch international volatiler war. Bis Ende September könne der Index noch ein paar Prozent zulegen, kurzfristig rechne man aber eher mit einem schwachen Sommerquartal. Jeder Kursrückgang führe zu einem Kaufsignal, weil die Bewertungen gut seien. Österreichs Innenpolitik habe "keinen Einfluss auf den Kursverlauf gehabt", sagte der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB), Bernd Maurer, am Freitag vor Journalisten.

Alles was nach Bekanntwerden des "Ibiza-Video" passiert sei, habe allenfalls "Unterhaltungswert" gehabt, aber keine Auswirkungen auf die Aktien, so Maurer. Investoren-Rückfragen hätten sich kaum darauf bezogen, auch nicht am Anleihemarkt. Das habe wohl auch damit zu tun, ergänzte Volkswirtschafter Gunter Deuber von der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), dass damit gerechnet werde, dass auch in der nächsten Regierung die ÖVP vertreten sein werde.

Eine positive Auswirkung hätte von der mit der Steuerreform geplant gewesenen KÖSt-Senkung ausgehen können, meinte Maurer, doch diese sei ja nun vom Tisch. Eingepreist gewesen sei sie nicht am Aktienmarkt, daher habe man sie dort auch nicht auspreisen müssen. Die frühere ÖVP-FPÖ-Regierung wollte ja die KÖSt in zwei Schritten 2022/23 von 25 auf 23 und dann 21 Prozent reduzieren, damit wäre sie unter das jetzige EU-28-Niveau von 21,9 Prozent gesunken.

Besonders stark profitiert von der KÖSt-Senkung hätten Unternehmen mit einer Besteuerung (fast) ausschließlich in Österreich bzw. einem für sie hoch wirksamen Steuersatz - also Flughafen Wien, Post, BAWAG, OMV und Verbund, so Maurer. Als mögliche Wahlkampfthemen, die von Relevanz sein könnten, nannte er eine mögliche Steuerreform, ein Thema Mietpreisregulierung wie in Berlin, Energiethemen und die Pflegeversicherung ("ob, wie, wann?"). Dass der ATX im Zweitquartal schwächer gewesen sei, liege an der Indexzusammensetzung mit recht vielen Finanzwerten an der Wiener Börse.

Gründe für die heurige Top-Performance des ATX seien die Immo-Werte wie Immofinanz und CA Immo gewesen, wobei die CA Immo mit über 30 Prozent Plus überhaupt der beste ATX-Wert gewesen sei. Das Umfeld für Immobilienhalter sei weiterhin "top", die Mieten würden steigen, die Leerstandsraten sinken, und von der Zinsseite her spiele es überhaupt "Party für den gesamten Sektor in der Finanzierung, das unterstützt aber auch das Bewertungsniveau".

Als Kaufempfehlungen hat die RCB Agrana, EVN, Post und Mayr-Melnhof mit durchaus defensivem Profil, des weiteren Andritz, OMV und VIG.

Die Liste der externen Risikofaktoren werde nicht kürzer, doch wirkten die mit der Zeit immer weniger. Kurzfristig bleibe aber "Enttäuschungspotenzial", meinte Maurer, deshalb sei die RCB auf 12-Monats-Sicht "neutral" eingestellt. Als Risikofaktoren nannte der Experte die Handelskonflikte USA-China sowie USA-EU, den Brexit, Italiens Innenpolitik und Staatsschulden sowie den Iran. Dennoch bleibe das "Pro-Aktien-Argument" im Vergleich mit Alternativanlagen.

  

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Jerome Powells Signale sind auffällig

Der weltweit wichtigste Notenbanker steht bereit, um „angemessen zu handeln“. Für die Marktteilnehmer bedeutet das: Die US-Zinsen werden wohl bald sinken. Erstmals seit 2008.

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/boerse/5657510/Jerome-Powells-Signale-sind-auffaell ig

  

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Not only have US and European government bond rates declined since the beginning of the year, but credit spreads have also tightened significantly. Because of this dramatic decline in borrowing costs for corporates, there is now $600bn in corporate bonds trading at negative yields, up from essentially zero at the beginning at of the year.. The vast majority of negative-yielding corporate bonds are in Europe, and the ongoing decline in borrowing costs for corporates will be helpful for the European economy going forward.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Global equities are holding near all-time highs, with US equities outperforming other regions this week. At the sector and style level, we saw a clear rotation out of Growth and into Value this week, as bond yields moved higher despite the dovish comments from Fed chair Powell. Energy sector outperformed in both Europe and in the US. Oil prices moved higher and dollar weakened. Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive on the equity outlook, still seeing material upside over the next 12 months. They expect these returns to be supported by both a resumption of earnings growth and some P/E rerating. The P/E premium to last 5-year average levels is currently nearly 20% lower than what was typically seen at past market peaks. While the consensus view is that multiples can only go lower, they think there is a potential for the market to start to price in that the Fed will end up too dovish for the remainder of the current cycle. Real assets are likely to rerate due to much lower late cycle Fed rate, bond yields and inflation rates than typical. In addition, P/Es are positively correlated to EPS momentum, which they think will rebound in the 2H of this year. They highlight that the current setup has similarities to the '15-'16 mid-cycle episode, where the earnings rebound started becoming evident in the 2H ’16. While Q2 is still likely to be poor, they believe the earnings momentum will pick up again into the end of this year. Earnings typically didn’t peak for the cycle until they strongly overshot the trend line. Regionally, they keep a preference for the US, and have recently upgraded Japanese equities. They have been OW Growth over Value in the past year, but are now calling for a rotation out of Growth and into Value style in 2H, with Banks and Energy-Commodities expected to lead.

JPMorgan

  

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In the US, record stock buybacks have been a major focus for investors and have even attracted the attention of some politicians and activists, who are advocating for limiting or even banning stock repurchases.

Concerns about the size and trade-offs resulting from buybacks appear overblown given the current size of the US equity market. The level of buybacks is in line with the 15-year average, after accounting for the current S&P 500 market capitalization.

JPMorgan

  

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Buybacks and the investor

• Stocks of companies that buy back their shares tend to outperform both short and long term.
• Portfolios of high-buyback (BB) companies have outperformed the overall market by over 4% in the US and Europe over the past 25 and 20 years, respectively. Smaller excess returns in Japan.
• The BB excess return is highest when companies buy shares at depressed levels. A high BB portfolio thus has not performed well in the last two years of an expansion and does best during a recession or an early expansion.

JPMorgan

  

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• S&P500 made a new all-time high this week, crossing the 3000 mark. Despite some high-profile profit warnings, global equities held ground, supported by the dovish comments from the Fed. At a sector level, Cyclicals fared better than Defensives in the US, and drifted sideways in Europe.
• Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive on equities. In their view, Growth-Policy trade-off is much better now than it was in 2018. The upcoming Q2 results are likely to be challenging, but they expect the market to continue the up move in 2H, and make significant fresh all-time highs before the next US recession strikes. At the same time, they are looking for an internal market rotation in 2H: 1) Value vs Growth – They were unexcited by Value style for some time, but are now calling for a rebound in Value vs Growth. They believe that for the sustained reversal of Value underperformance one needs to see bottoming out in bond yields and in PMIs. It is encouraging that the US 10-year bond yield is holding above 2%, and a number of recent macro indicators appear to suggest activity is bottoming out. 2) In the continent, they were long Exporters since Jan ’18, but given the strong 25% outperformance the strategists swapped into Domestic plays last month. Euro direction is one of the key considerations for the trade, and they expect the Euro to firm up vs the USD in 2H. 3) In the UK, they stay long Exporters vs Domestic plays, as a hedge against continued political uncertainty.

JPMorgan

  

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• Our US strategists raised their S&P 500 12-month price target to 3,200. They see further upside driven by: (1) synchronized monetary easing globally; (2) expectation of a partial trade deal as elections in the US approach; (3) intra-cycle profit recovery by year-end with negative revisions likely peaking during 2Q reporting season; (4) attractive relative valuation (EY-BY Spread at ~340bp and negative yielding debt balance has risen to ~$12 trillion); (5) average equity positioning (~50th %-tile) and still negative investor sentiment; and (6) steady demand for equities as corporates continue to return shareholder capital at near record pace (>$100b/month in buybacks and dividends). While their underlying assumption is for a partial trade deal to materialize before year-end, this uncertainty remains the single largest downside risk to their positive view.

JPMorgan

  

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Through the entire period of QE the largest counterpart of the euro area’s current account surplus (still put at 2.8% of GDP in the twelve months ending May) was net debt outflows. To put some numbers on this, net euro area buying of foreign debt securities totalled €1.36 trillion between 2015 and 2018 and net foreign selling of euro area debt securities, €494bn. Altogether QE was associated with €1.86 trillion of net debt outflows from the euro area, a massive figure, much of it destined to US credit and to help finance the UK’s large current account deficit. Looked at in this way, few would probably disagree with the notion that it would have been a lot better if the money had been put to work more in the euro area itself.

 

Going into this year, with QE coming to an end, we always argued that we could see a fundamental shift in these capital flows. What we didn’t expect though was such strength in buying of euro area debt securities, both from investors outside the euro area, but also from across EMU.  In the first five months of this year, net foreign buying of euro area debt securities amounted to €165bn. Germany, the lowest yielding market in the euro area, saw €79bn of net foreign buying of its debt securities in the first five months of this year, France €66bn, the higher yielding Italy a much smaller €24bn. Adding together the country data that is available would suggest net foreign buying, including Germany buying France, and France buying Italy, of approaching €250bn between January and May, a much bigger figure than the €165bn of non-euro area net buying of euro area debt securities during the period. This provides further confirmation that as QE came to an end there was suddenly significant net buying of debt securities within the euro area itself.

  

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>Looked at in this way, few would probably disagree with the notion
>that it would have been a lot better if the money had been put to work
>more in the euro area itself.

I disagree.

Bilanztechnisch wäre das schlicht und einfach nicht möglich. Wie im Artikel weiter vorne steht, handelt es sich bei diesen Geldflüssen um "the counterpart of the euro area’s current account surplus".

  

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>>Looked at in this way, few would probably disagree with
>the notion
>>that it would have been a lot better if the money had been
>put to work
>>more in the euro area itself.
>
>I disagree.
>
>Bilanztechnisch wäre das schlicht und einfach nicht möglich.
>Wie im Artikel weiter vorne steht, handelt es sich bei diesen
>Geldflüssen um "the counterpart of the euro area’s current
>account surplus".


Wäre das innerhalb investiert worden gäbe es notwendigerweise den surplus nicht. Das wäre für das PotenzialWachstum besser. Vermute so ist es gemeint.

  

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>Wäre das innerhalb investiert worden gäbe es notwendigerweise
>den surplus nicht. Das wäre für das PotenzialWachstum besser.
>Vermute so ist es gemeint.

So gesehen ja. Dazu hätte man statt britischer Anleihen zum Beispiel britische Investitionsgüter kaufen müssen.

  

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Da lagen sie richtig:

RBI: Erwarten eine EZB-Zinssenkung erst im September
Analyst: Einlagesatz dürfte dann auf -0,6 Prozent sinken - "Zeichen stehen auf lower for longer"

Die RBI-Finanzexperten rechnen damit, dass die EZB bei ihrer heutigen Zinssitzung keine Zinssenkung beschließen wird. "Wir erwarten einen solchen Schritt im September", sagte Raiffeisen-Analyst Matthias Reith am Donnerstag vor Journalisten in Wien. "Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Einlagesatz, der aktuell bei -0,4 Prozent liegt, um weitere 20 Basispunkte nach unten genommen wird auf -0,6 Prozent."

Auch am Markt insgesamt werde mit knapper Mehrheit keine Zinssetzung heute erwartet, so Reith. Anfang nächsten Jahres dürfte die EZB wieder anfangen, Staatsanleihen zu kaufen. "Das niedrige oder sogar negative Zinsumfeld wird uns noch eine Weile lang weiterhin begleiten. "Die Zeichen in der Eurozone stehen auf lower for longer."

  

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RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Probleme nicht lösen
Erwartungen an Handlungsfähigkeit der Notenbanken sind zu hoch - Konjunkturdaten sprechen nicht für weitere Lockerungsmaßnahmen

Die Geldpolitik alleine wird konjunkturelle Sorgen, die sich großteils aus politischen Themen wie Handelskonflikten, dem Umgang mit dem Klimawandel oder dem Brexit ergeben, nicht lösen, sagte der Chefökonom der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), Peter Brezinschek, am Montag vor Journalisten. "Der Geldpolitik werden Dinge aufgebürdet, die sie nicht erfüllen kann", so Brezinschek.

Die Politik würde zunehmend von den Notenbanken erwarten, dass sie konjunkturelle Entwicklungen über den Zinssatz beeinflusst. Vielmehr müssten momentan politische Lösungen gefunden werden, die positive Impulse für die Konjunktur liefern. "Die Gefahr liegt dort, wo die Politik derzeit untätig ist", sagte Brezinschek mit Blick auf fehlende Klimapolitik, geopolitische Probleme und die nach wie vor ungelösten Handelskriege. Die Notenbanken müssten die Politik zwar unterstützen, die Erwartungen an die Handlungsfähigkeit der Zentralbanken seien aber stark überzogen.

So wird am Markt angesichts der sich eintrübenden Konjunkturerwartungen mit einer Zinssenkung der US-Notenbank Fed am Mittwoch gerechnet und auch der Chef der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Mario Draghi, hat am vergangenen Donnerstag erneute Lockerungen angedeutet. Die RBI erwartet eine Senkung des US-Leitzinses um 25 Basispunkte und geht davon aus, dass im Dezember eine weitere Senkung um 25 Basispunkte folgt. Die EZB dürfte dagegen den Leitzins noch länger bei Null halten, allerdings hält Brezinschek eine Neuauflage des Anleihenkaufprogramms für möglich. Zudem rechnet die RBI damit, dass der Strafzins für Banken gestaffelt wird, um die Profitabilität der Kreditinstitute nicht zu gefährden. Das Basisniveau von derzeit minus 0,4 Prozent dürfte zunächst jedoch unangetastet bleiben.

Betrachtet man jedoch die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage, spreche diese eigentlich nicht für weitere Lockerungsmaßnahmen, so Brezinschek. In den USA sind die Arbeitslosenzahlen weiter gering, während die Stundenlöhne langsam steigen. Die jüngsten Zahlen zum BIP sowie zur Inflation fielen besser aus als erwartet und auch die Industrieproduktionszahlen weisen weiterhin ein leichtes Plus auf.

Auch in Europa hätten die jüngsten Zahlen zur Geldmengenentwicklung und Kreditvergabe keinen Anlass für weitere Lockerungen gegeben. Das Wachstum sei hier schon seit 2016 recht solide. Die niedrigen Renditen auf Staatsanleihen würden ebenfalls nicht für expansivere geldpolitische Maßnahmen sprechen, so der RBI-Ökonom. Derzeit weisen laut RBI-Daten rund 60 Prozent aller Eurozonen-Staatsanleihen eine negative Rendite auf.

Vom anstehenden Personalwechsel in der EZB erwartet Brezinschek keine Trendwende im derzeitigen geldpolitischen Kurs. Die ehemalige Chefin des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), Christine Lagarde, soll die Zentralbank ab November leiten. "Lagarde wird die ersten 12 Monate ihrer Amtszeit nichts anderes als den Geist von Mario Draghi exekutieren", so der Ökonom. Dass mit ihr eine Politikerin an die Spitze der EZB kommt, sei die perfekte Fortsetzung der Entwicklung, dass die Geldpolitik immer stärker im Dienst der Politik steht, sagte Brezinschek.

Für die Anleger bedeute die Aussicht auf noch lange niedrig bleibende Zinsen, dass ein breit gestreutes Aktienportfolio - beispielsweise in Form eines Fonds - quasi die einzige Variante bleibt, wenn es darum geht, langfristig Rendite zu erzielen, sagte Brezinschek. Zudem dürften Investitionen in Immobilien auch in Zukunft hoch im Kurs stehen, denn die Kreditkonditionen seien sehr günstig und dürften es in Anbetracht der derzeitigen Geldpolitik auch noch für längere Zeit bleiben.

  

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>RBI-Brezinschek: Geldpolitik kann politische Probleme nicht
>lösen
>Erwartungen an Handlungsfähigkeit der Notenbanken sind zu hoch
>- Konjunkturdaten sprechen nicht für weitere
>Lockerungsmaßnahmen
>
>Die Geldpolitik alleine wird konjunkturelle Sorgen, die sich
>großteils aus politischen Themen wie Handelskonflikten, dem
>Umgang mit dem Klimawandel oder dem Brexit ergeben, nicht
>lösen, sagte der Chefökonom der Raiffeisen Bank International
>(RBI), Peter Brezinschek, am Montag vor Journalisten. "Der
>Geldpolitik werden Dinge aufgebürdet, die sie nicht erfüllen
>kann", so Brezinschek.
>
>Die Politik würde zunehmend von den Notenbanken erwarten, dass
>sie konjunkturelle Entwicklungen über den Zinssatz
>beeinflusst. Vielmehr müssten momentan politische Lösungen
>gefunden werden, die positive Impulse für die Konjunktur
>liefern. "Die Gefahr liegt dort, wo die Politik derzeit
>untätig ist", sagte Brezinschek mit Blick auf fehlende
>Klimapolitik, geopolitische Probleme und die nach wie vor
>ungelösten Handelskriege. Die Notenbanken müssten die Politik
>zwar unterstützen, die Erwartungen an die Handlungsfähigkeit
>der Zentralbanken seien aber stark überzogen.
>
>So wird am Markt angesichts der sich eintrübenden
>Konjunkturerwartungen mit einer Zinssenkung der US-Notenbank
>Fed am Mittwoch gerechnet und auch der Chef der Europäischen
>Zentralbank (EZB), Mario Draghi, hat am vergangenen Donnerstag
>erneute Lockerungen angedeutet. Die RBI erwartet eine Senkung
>des US-Leitzinses um 25 Basispunkte und geht davon aus, dass
>im Dezember eine weitere Senkung um 25 Basispunkte folgt. Die
>EZB dürfte dagegen den Leitzins noch länger bei Null halten,
>allerdings hält Brezinschek eine Neuauflage des
>Anleihenkaufprogramms für möglich. Zudem rechnet die RBI
>damit, dass der Strafzins für Banken gestaffelt wird, um die
>Profitabilität der Kreditinstitute nicht zu gefährden. Das
>Basisniveau von derzeit minus 0,4 Prozent dürfte zunächst
>jedoch unangetastet bleiben.
>
>Betrachtet man jedoch die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage, spreche
>diese eigentlich nicht für weitere Lockerungsmaßnahmen, so
>Brezinschek. In den USA sind die Arbeitslosenzahlen weiter
>gering, während die Stundenlöhne langsam steigen. Die jüngsten
>Zahlen zum BIP sowie zur Inflation fielen besser aus als
>erwartet und auch die Industrieproduktionszahlen weisen
>weiterhin ein leichtes Plus auf.
>
>Auch in Europa hätten die jüngsten Zahlen zur
>Geldmengenentwicklung und Kreditvergabe keinen Anlass für
>weitere Lockerungen gegeben. Das Wachstum sei hier schon seit
>2016 recht solide. Die niedrigen Renditen auf Staatsanleihen
>würden ebenfalls nicht für expansivere geldpolitische
>Maßnahmen sprechen, so der RBI-Ökonom. Derzeit weisen laut
>RBI-Daten rund 60 Prozent aller Eurozonen-Staatsanleihen eine
>negative Rendite auf.
>
>Vom anstehenden Personalwechsel in der EZB erwartet
>Brezinschek keine Trendwende im derzeitigen geldpolitischen
>Kurs. Die ehemalige Chefin des Internationalen Währungsfonds
>(IWF), Christine Lagarde, soll die Zentralbank ab November
>leiten. "Lagarde wird die ersten 12 Monate ihrer Amtszeit
>nichts anderes als den Geist von Mario Draghi exekutieren", so
>der Ökonom. Dass mit ihr eine Politikerin an die Spitze der
>EZB kommt, sei die perfekte Fortsetzung der Entwicklung, dass
>die Geldpolitik immer stärker im Dienst der Politik steht,
>sagte Brezinschek.
>
>Für die Anleger bedeute die Aussicht auf noch lange niedrig
>bleibende Zinsen, dass ein breit gestreutes Aktienportfolio -
>beispielsweise in Form eines Fonds - quasi die einzige
>Variante bleibt, wenn es darum geht, langfristig Rendite zu
>erzielen, sagte Brezinschek. Zudem dürften Investitionen in
>Immobilien auch in Zukunft hoch im Kurs stehen, denn die
>Kreditkonditionen seien sehr günstig und dürften es in
>Anbetracht der derzeitigen Geldpolitik auch noch für längere
>Zeit bleiben.
>

Da stimme ich sowas von zu. Die EU ist wieder mal auf dem falschen Dampfer unterwegs.

  

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Excluding US Treasuries, US corporate bonds, MBS, CMBS, and ABS shows that 43% of the global ex-US IG index is trading at negative yields at the moment, up from 20% late last year. With this backdrop, it is not a surprise if real money investors in Europe, Japan, and Asia show renewed interest in buying US credit, in particular when the Fed at the same time is cutting short rates and thereby lowering hedging costs for foreigners buying US fixed income.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Fed cuts rates for first time since 2008

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy-setting meeting on July 31, marking the first time the central bank has reduced the benchmark interest rate since it battled the financial crisis in 2008. The Fed also decided to pre-emptively end its process of shrinking its balance sheet, a process known as quantitative tightening, two months ahead of schedule.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-meeting-rates-powell-211534497.html

  

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US IG fixed income yield has declined to 2.43% while non-US IG collapsed to an all-time low of 0.32%.

While the US accounts for 49.2% of the global IG fixed income market, it pays out 88% of all yield.

It is pick your poison: take more credit, duration or currency risk. That means more unhedged buying of US corporate bonds.

  

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Rarely has the adage “Don’t fight the Fed” been more apropos than over the past 18 months. In 2018, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening contributed to a bear market for most stocks, while this year’s equally aggressive dovish pivot has resulted in a new bull market for some. Since our call 18 months ago for a multi-year consolidation in global equities, the average global stock and index is flat to down 10%, while the leading S&P 500 Index is now barely up with a lot of intermittent ups and downs. In short, thanks to the Fed’s policy shift, we’ve seen a consolidation that leaves us at the high end of our expected range.

Last Wednesday, the Fed made good on its dovish pivot by cutting the fed funds rate by 25bp – the first cut in 11 years by the world’s most influential central bank. While it wasn’t 50bp as our team and some others were expecting, the Fed also announced an immediate end to its balance sheet reduction program (affectionately known as QT for quantitative tightening). This combination is unequivocally positive for asset prices. However, to the chagrin of many, the markets reacted negatively, with stocks selling off on Wednesday afternoon and rates plummeting at every tenor, leaving the yield curve still inverted. Investors were quick to blame Chair Powell for failing to communicate a more dovish message, suggesting that they had been misled by prior Fedspeak. But this seems unfair, given that the Fed delivered a more dovish action than had been priced in if you include the end of QT.

Investors should have been more focused on the fundamentals. Going into the Fed meeting last week, my contention was that stocks had already discounted a dovish pivot and investors were potentially ignoring the continued deterioration in fundamentals, as well as other risks including trade. In short, I argued that no matter the outcome, the meeting was likely to provide an excuse for the rally to roll over. After a decent bounce in stocks on Thursday morning, trade resurfaced with President Trump’s tweet that the US would levy new 10% tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese imports. This led to a sharp reversal in the afternoon, quashing any lingering hopes that the rally from June was intact. Markets look to have been overly complacent about trade as well. Given the lack of any real progress in talks with China earlier in the week, that risk was still very much alive prior to the president’s tweet.
From here, investors must decide if the Fed can deliver the growth needed to justify current or higher prices. Most investors I speak with still think that this is a mid-cycle correction in the economy and that any Fed cuts are simply an insurance policy. If one believes this, shouldn’t a “mid-cycle adjustment” (in Chair Powell’s words) be enough? Given the very broad and steep decline in many leading indicators and corporate earnings growth, I’ve made the case that we are far from mid-cycle and closer to end of cycle, especially for corporate profits. On that note, I adamantly disagree with the claim that 2Q earnings have been strong or even good. To the contrary, the results and guidance so far indicate that S&P 500 forward 12-month consensus estimates remain too high and are likely to fall another 5-10%.

Bottom line, the financial markets’ initial negative reaction to the Fed’s first rate cut since 2008 shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Trade escalation is not a new risk; it was simply overlooked. Therefore, I continue to expect a 10% correction in the S&P 500 this quarter. So what about the adage that you shouldn’t fight the Fed? History suggests that Fed pauses after a long rate-hiking campaign, like the one we had in January, always lead to a strong market rally – exactly what we’ve seen this year. However, the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle is typically not good for stocks, as the last two examples (January 2001 and September 2007) clearly show. The lesson is that while a change in Fed policy can affect financial conditions – and hence asset prices – almost immediately, reversing an economic slowdown with easier monetary policy takes time. Stay more defensively oriented in your portfolios until the slowdown is properly priced.

Morgan Stanley

  

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Our Global equity strategists acknowledge that renewed trade escalation is a headwind for the market and that seasonals in August are not constructive. These could lead to a pullback over a period of a few weeks, especially post what was a strong year-to-date rally. The template might be similar to the May pullback. Having said that, our global equity strategists remain constructive on equities for the year and continue to believe that a prospective near-term consolidation should be ultimately added to. They expect that global equities will make significant new highs before the next US recession strikes and think that the Growth-Policy trade-off is far better now than it was in 2018. Q2 results are coming out much better than consensus projections, with US, Europe and Japan all surprising positively. They also highlight that US earnings have continued to beat European earnings for six quarters in a row, which remains a key driver for their long-standing preference for the US over Europe. Regionally, they reiterate their recent upgrade of Japan to OW, which trades extremely cheap versus other regions.

JPMorgan

  

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• Equity markets started the week with S&P500 recording the biggest one day negative move since 4Q18, as CNY/USD moved above 7. Since then, stocks have stabilized with S&P500 recouping some of the recent losses. US markets outperformed other regions, with EM underperforming DM. Cyclicals struggled versus Defensives.
• While our Global equity strategists maintain their bullish view on equities for the year, they expect market volatility for a period of a few weeks, with the size of the correction similar to what was witnessed in May. Their concerns revolve around elevated HF beta at the start of the month, some complacent sentiment indicators such as Bull-Bear, poor seasonals in August, strong DXY and the renewed bout of trade uncertainty. They believe that the weakness shouldn’t extend beyond August as positive catalysts are coming up in September, with the second easing by the Fed, ECB restarting QE and better seasonals. Their core medium term view remains that global equities will advance further before the next US recession strikes. There are building signs of a bottoming out in activity momentum, with a pickup in China dataflow, M1 is up in key regions and Asian exports are bottoming. Jobless claims remain very well behaved. Finally, Q2 results are coming out better than consensus feared. Q2 S&P500 EPS growth rate of 4% yoy is an acceleration vs the Q1 rate of +2%, with more than 50% of corporates rising guidance for the year. US remains their preferred regional pick.

JPMorgan

  

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Back at Sintra in mid-June when Draghi initially signalled that “in the absence of improvement” the ECB would be prepared to ease policy, it was interpreted as a significant lowering of the bar for further action. And with domestic activity treading water, global uncertainties persisting and the markets anticipating further easing from the US Fed before year end, the question now is not whether the ECB will add stimulus at its next meeting but what form that will take. What makes the ECB’s path more complicated than before, however, is that while over the past few years the ECB and Fed were heading in the opposite direction with one easing policy and the other tightening it, the circumstances have changed. In a sense, the ECB may need to run harder than in the past just to stand still.      

 

For example, if the ECB fails to keep up with the Fed in terms of how aggressively it eases policy, the spotlight could shift to the exchange rate. Alternatively, even if the Fed manages to hold the line on rates, for the euro area economy, the euro’s move against the Chinese Yuan matters significantly more than the moves against the US dollar or Sterling. And if US-China trade tensions escalate leading to further CHY devaluation, then the euro area economy could end up facing a triple headwind of trade disruptions, deteriorating sentiment and an appreciating currency even in a scenario where the moves against the US dollar are kept to a minimum.

Finally, as the Italian political story moves on to a new chapter, it’s obviously key that the sovereign bond market there continues to enjoy the support of the domestic investor base. For example, during the last wobble in May/June 2018, foreign investors cut their holdings of Italian sovereign debt by almost €60bn in two months. But over the same period, the Central Bank added €7bn of paper through QE, ‘other financial institutions’ added over €22bn, and Italian banks added €43bn.

Into year-end, however, traditionally, the Italian banks tend to reduce their government bond holdings (before re-loading their positions in January and February). Therefore, if political risk escalates, there may be questions as to whether the 2018 pattern of strong domestic buying will necessarily be repeated. Much it would seem will depend on the support from the ECB and the potential restart of QE … so no change there then.

  

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The ECB should launch "significant and impactful" stimulus measures that surpass market expectations to combat a slump in economic growth, Governing Council member Olli Rehn told The Wall Street Journal. He added that the stimulus package to be announced at the Sept. 12 meeting should include key interest rate cuts and "substantial and sufficient" bond purchases, as well as easing on the terms of new long-term loans for banks.

  

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To assess recession risk focus on global markers

Our global outlook anticipates a slump in business sentiment related to geopolitical conflicts damping global growth this year, with a particularly significant hit to the goods sector. However, we also expect the expansion to weather the storm as private sector resilience, bolstered by easy macro policies, limits spillovers of this drag to credit and labor markets. Incoming data validate this view. While the drop in business sentiment has been sharp, slowing capex and factory output growth more than anticipated, global GDP growth held near potential in 1H19. Credit continues to flow normally and consumer spending gains have been strong as households benefit from solid job gains, rising wage growth, and recent declines in interest rates and oil prices.

However, drags are still building, testing private sector resilience. Business sentiment is at a seven-year low and trade tensions continue to intensify. Political flashpoints (notably Brexit) also loom large. With the growth in business capex and manufacturing activity nearly stalled in recent quarters, the potential for greater spillovers to labor and credit has increased. Our forecast rests importantly on a belief that credit conditions and labor markets bend but do not break. However, the risk is that businesses begin to reduce the pace of hiring more significantly and this then dampens consumer spending growth by more, which in turn feeds back into even softer business spending and tighter financial conditions.

JPMorgan

  

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• Global equity markets weakened further this week, following the intra-day inversion in the 10Y – 2Y US yield curve. All key regions were in the red. At a sector level, Defensives outperformed in both the US and Europe, with Utilities being the best performing sector in both regions.
• Our Global equity strategists continue with their cautious tactical call, advocating a pullback in equities for the month of August. Their concerns entering the month were poor seasonals, complacent sentiment, elevated positioning, overbought market and an escalation in US – China trade conflict. They believe that the weakness will not be prolonged, likely similar to the May experience in duration, and look to step in entering September, when tactical indicators reprice and new potential positives in the form of ECB restarting QE, as well as next Fed cut emerge. US remains their preferred regional pick and they stay unexcited on EM. EM equities typically closely follow the EM FX direction, and EM FX outlook is not favorable from here. Moreover, EM equity valuations do not look attractive, with current discount exactly inline with its historical average. Despite the latest bout of outflows, EM is not underowned by investors. While EM should not outperform, within the EM our strategy team is still positive on Brazil and Russia

JPMorgan

  

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Meanwhile, Kyle Bass is in the headlines: he notes the US is “the only country with an integer in front of our bond yields!”  He’s expecting them to trend lower on the basis the US$ is going to attract money from everywhere, pushing yields lower.  “We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We have the rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here.”  I suspect he’s spot on. The unintended consequences of the last 10-years of globally distorted money at artificially induced low rates has been a stalled global economy, rising income inequality and massive asset price inflation.  The current trend towards zero will exacerbate it.. but its probably great for asset prices (terrible for savers!)

  

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The current level of US tariffs is not high by historical standards, but it is the highest level since the 1960s, and it is a major break with the globalization trend which started two hundred years ago.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Global equities performed strongly this week, with the US outperforming Europe by almost 150bp. Cyclicals led the rally in all regions, with Autos and Banks being the best performing sectors in Europe, while Tech, Financials, Industrials and Energy drove the upside in the US. Recent political developments in the UK have been viewed favourably by the markets, with GBP up over 2%. FTSE100 was up in absolute terms, but underperformed most other developed market indices.
• Our Global Equity strategists were advocating a consolidation during the month of August, but they have this week advised to add risk back, looking for stronger equity performance in Q4. Better technicals, light positioning, more favourable seasonals, signs of a trough in activity momentum, overbought bonds, potential de-escalation in trade uncertainty and increasing support from key central banks are some of the arguments they believe will underpin a more positive market behaviour in Q4. At a sector level, they argued that there will be a rotation in market leadership, with Cyclicals and Financials leading on the upside. US remains their key OW, while UK is the UW.

JPMorgan

  

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RBI erwartet Verschärfung der Strafzinsen für Banken auf -0,6 Prozent

Brezinschek: Beim Einlagensatz dürfte es aber einen Freibetrag nach Schweizer Muster geben - Neuauflage der Anleihenkäufe ab Dezember oder Jänner möglich

Die Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) rechnet damit, dass die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) am Donnerstag ihren Einlagensatz von minus 0,4 auf minus 0,6 Prozent senken wird. "Wir erwarten uns auch eine Spaltung des Einlagensatzes", sagte RBI-Chefökonom Peter Brezinschek am Mittwoch vor Journalisten. Für die USA erwarten die RBI-Ökonomen eine Zinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte.
Andere Analysten halten eine Senkung des Zinssatzes auf zunächst -0,5 Prozent und erst im Dezember einen weiteren Zinsschritt auf -0,6 Prozent für wahrscheinlicher. Aber "wenn man einen Zinsschritt mit minus 0,6 Prozent machen würde, würde man die Markterwartungen dann vielleicht einmal bereinigen", meint Brezinschek.

Er erwartet auch eine Staffelung der Strafzinsen, die die Banken für Einlagen bezahlen müssen. Dieser negative Einlagensatz habe 2017 und 2018 de facto jeweils 7,5 Mrd. Euro an Bankensteuern dargestellt und damit die Profitablität des Finanzsektors reduziert. "Wir gehen davon aus, dass es einen gespaltenen Einlagensatz gibt, also mit einer bestimmten Freigrenze über den Mindestreserven, nach Schweizer Muster." In der Schweiz orientiert sich der Freibetrag an der Mindestreserve, die eine Geschäftsbank als Einlage bei der Notenbank halten muss. Die Schweizer Nationalbank räumt den Banken einen Freibetrag in Höhe des 20-Fachen ihres jeweiligen Mindestreservesolls ein. Die EZB könnte den Freibetrag für den Einlagensatz etwa mit dem Fünffachen der Mindestreserve festsetzen, schätzt Brenzinschek, "erst darüber setzt dann der auf minus 0,6 Prozent erhöhte Strafzins ein".

Die RBI erwartet auch die Ankündigung eines APP-Programms (Asset Purchase Programme) für Dezember oder Jänner im Umfang von rund 15 Mrd. Euro Anleihenkäufen pro Monat. "Der Konsensus geht von eher 30 Milliarden aus", so Brezinschek. Dabei sei zu bedenken, dass die Bestände der EZB am gesamten ausständigen Anleihenvolumen schon jetzt teilweise die von der EZB selbst festgelegte Grenze von 33 Prozent erreicht oder überschritten hätten. "Das sind in den Niederlanden sogar schon 37 Prozent, in Deutschland 35, in der Slowakei 33 und in Finnland 32 Prozent." Die EZB müsse auch wegen des EuGH vorsichtig sein, "dass sie nicht als marktdominanter Finanzierer der Staatsschuld auftritt".

  

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• The equity rally paused at the start of last week due to the oil spike following the attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil infrastructure, and the rotation stalled given the consolidation in the recent bond yields upmove, before resuming later on in the week. Energy unsurprisingly was the best performing sector in both the US and Europe. Regionally, Japan continued to outperform other regions, being the strongest global market in the past month.

• Our Global Equity strategists called for a market rebound at the start of September, supported by a likely improvement in Growth-Policy backdrop in Q4, as well as for a rotation in market internals towards Cyclicals and Value, driven by a bounce in bond yields. The fundamental confirmation of a turn in activity momentum is the key for the sustained equity rebound and the continued rotation, in their view. Encouragingly, improving money supply indicators point to PMI rebound. In the past five episodes of PMIs turn, Value worked each time. Our strategists also highlight that US CESI has moved above zero and this typically favors Cyclicals outperformance. The concern by many is that if the rotation sustains and the bond yields move higher, the overall market could suffer. Our strategy team doesn’t agree with this, expecting the broadening of equity participation to be seen as healthy and positive for the overall market. They note that in the past 10 years when bond yields had a sharp bounce, the S&P500 was up every single time during the move.

JPMorgan

  

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Equity Strategy
Buy Energy — Low Valuation, Crowded Short, Insider Buying, and Fundamentals to Improve

JPMorgan

  

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A common theme at the moment is that we need more growth. With monetary policy almost out of ammunition fiscal policy is needed to create growth, in particular growth which is good for the environment. The good news is that there are many things governments can do today to create green growth, for example, reduce support to inefficient agriculture production, phase out tax expenditures encouraging polluting behavior, more road pricing, increase environmental taxes, and better infrastructure investments. In short, fiscal policy is not just about giving tax cuts and spending more money but about designing the tax system and government spending in a way that creates sustainable growth. In other words, with monetary policy out of ammunition public policy is more important than ever before, and if governments want to create growth, there are many ways they can do that today.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Recent Equity Price Action
Significant Influence of CTAs and Option Hedgers

In less than 48 hours, many major markets lost ~5% (nearly an average annual gain). The sell-off unfolded as follows: the ISM miss on Tuesday triggered selling that pushed the S&P 500 lower by 1.2%. Later in the night, significant selling came in futures as the S&P 500 broke through 50- and 100-day moving average signals as well as 1- and 12-month price momentum. A nearly identical sequence occurred with the Eurostoxx 50, which broke 1M, 3M, 6M price momentum signals as well as 50- and 100-day moving averages. This has prompted one of the largest CTA reversals (from long to short) and helped push the market lower. Even more importantly, due to the significant recent increase of put options outstanding, dealers were caught significantly short gamma in both indices. This resulted in selling related to hedging index put options that is likely more important than the selling by CTAs. Technical flows likely drove more than ~$100bn of equities selling in a 48-hour period. Going into this week, the setup for indices (CTA levels and option gamma) was vulnerable, and it didn’t take much fundamental selling to trigger much larger technical selling. Yesterday’s services PMI print, while underwhelming, triggered another bout of instantaneous selling, which did not succeed in triggering more technical selling. In fact, the market retraced ~2% intraday (nearly the whole previous day’s loss), which was helped by the same short gamma exposure (exaggerating any directional move). An acceleration of buybacks likely helped stabilize the market, but it is likely that many fundamental investors did not change their view on the cycle based on a few noisy economic prints.

JPMorgan

  

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Where does this leave us today? Dealers are still short gamma, and both the S&P 500 and Eurostoxx 50 are right below all of the key technical levels breached earlier this week. If the market can move ~50bps higher during the day, it could spark a significant rally driven by the trend followers (CTAs) and the same put options that helped push the market lower earlier in the week.

JPMorgan

  

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JPMorgan, BlackRock Say Investors Too Cautious on Repeat of 2008

nvestors are pumping the brakes too hard on equities amid concern a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is around the corner, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc.

Anastasia Amoroso, a global investment strategist at JPMorgan in New York, said probable Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December will buoy stocks. The Trump administration, under pressure to lift the slowing U.S. economy, may strike a more conciliatory tone with China in next week’s trade talks, she said during a panel discussion on Bloomberg TV.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-04/jpmorgan-blackrock-say-investors-too-c autious-on-repeat-of-2008

  

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Just another correction, or the path to Trump's recession?

• Our economists’ view all year has been that the global economy would definitely bend due to tariffs (i.e. growth and profits would slump to a sub-trend pace), but that it wouldn’t break (enter a recession), for three reasons: global central bank easing plus selective fiscal stimulus (mainly from EM Asia rather than the US or Europe); lack of significant US private-sector imbalances in aggregate relative to conditions that typically precede recessions

JPMorgan

  

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• Our Global Equity Strategists have had a longstanding preference for the US over Eurozone equities, but are reversing this call now. Eurozone has underperformed the US by as much as 25% in USD terms over the past 18 months and it is underowned - with 20% of AUM outflows since Mar ’18. Eurozone PMIs are weak, but the team points to an improving M1 in the region, which tended to lead PMIs by 2-3 quarters. The sharp narrowing in peripheral spreads calls for the catch up of Euro equities. In addition, any increase in fiscal stimulus speculations could be a help for the sentiment in the region. Finally, any sustained rotation in market leadership, away from Growth and into Value, would be a help for Eurozone, given its Value tilt. Disorderly Brexit is clearly a risk to this view. However, JPM base case is that the current deadline will be pushed out to Jan-Feb with early elections likely and one should not ignore the possibility that Boris Johnson gets his deal through in October. This would be very bullish for UK domestic stocks, and for the GBP, but the stronger FX would likely take away a lot of the upside from UK stocks. Eurozone equities on the other hand are a big potential indirect beneficiary.

JPMorgan

  

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• Banks and Cyclicals rallied strongly this week, shadowing the bounce in bond yields, on increased US-China trade and Brexit optimism. Regionally, Eurozone equities were the best performer.

• Our Global Equity strategists are arguing that one should be countering the renewed growth fears, and look for equities to gain into year end. They see signs of an inflection in PMI momentum, while at the same time central banks are providing further support. Their view was that the poor ISM print might have a silver lining of compelling the US administration to move towards a trade truce with China. At a regional level, they reiterate their recent upgrade of Eurozone equities. They locked in the profits on their long standing preference for US over Eurozone, which yielded 25% over the past 18 months. Eurozone is under-owned and the strong rebound in Eurozone money supply suggests a bottoming out in Euro PMIs is near.

JPMorgan

  

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Während die deutsche Politik es mit nachvollziehbaren Gründen für selbstverständlich erachtet, die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung derzeit mit jährlich 100 Milliarden Euro Steuergeld zu stabilisieren, hält sie aus wenig nachvollziehbaren Gründen allenfalls 500 Millionen Euro jährlich zur Förderung der Künstlichen Intelligenz für ausreichend. Zudem wäre keine andere Regierung eines Industriestaats wohl auf die Idee gekommen, binnen weniger Jahre die Geschäftsmodelle von zwei ihrer internationalen Vorzeigebranchen – der Energiewirtschaft und der Automobilindustrie – zu diskreditieren. Selbst die kriminellen Machenschaften mancher Autobauer sind kein Grund, Hunderttausende Arbeitsplätze durch unrealistische Flottenverbräuche und eine überhastete Elektrifizierung aufs Spiel zu setzen.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/gastbeitraege/gastkommentar-ein-plan-fuer-deutschlan d-fuenf-punkte-die-die-wirtschaft-zukunftsfaehig-machen/25102780.html

  

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• Our Global Equity Strategy team continues to advocate a bullish equity stance into year-end on the back of US-China trade truce and a potential for a Brexit deal. They are also looking for activity momentum to start inflecting higher, which should drive a leadership rotation into Cyclicals and into Value, driven by higher bond yields. Such an environment would be a positive for Eurozone, which our strategists recently upgraded, post the ~25% underperformance relative to the US. Regionally, they are also bullish on Japan. They continue to avoid exposure to the UK, despite increased Brexit clarity. UK looks cheap, but the GBP-UKX correlation remains strongly inverse. A higher GBP will cap the upside for FTSE100. According to our strategists, Eurozone equities stand to benefit from a Brexit deal and they are also OW UK Domestic plays, which appear attractively priced and could be helped by an improvement in UK consumer confidence and corporate capex intentions.

JPMorgan

  

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RBI-Chefanalyst hält IWF-Prognosen für "sehr optimistisch"
IWF könnte im Frühling "Revisionsbedarf" haben - 2020 könnten sich aber einige Unsicherheitsfaktoren auflösen und so die Wirtschaft stützen

Der Chefanalyst der Raiffeisen Bank International, Peter Brezinschek, hält die jüngsten Wirtschaftsprognosen des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) für "sehr optimistisch". Vor allem, wo das starke Wachstum in Europa herkommen soll, sei ihm "schleierhaft". Er rechnet damit, dass der Währungsfonds im Frühling "Revisionsbedarf" für seine Prognosen haben könnte.

Der IWF rechnet für 2019 mit einem Weltwirtschaftswachstum von 3,0 Prozent, im kommenden Jahr 2020 soll dieses auf 3,4 Prozent ansteigen. Für die Industriestaaten lautet die Prognose für 2019 und 2020 auf je 1,7 Prozent, während es die Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer es auf ein Wachstum von 3,9 Prozent (2019) bzw. 4,6 Prozent (2020) bringen sollen.

Die warnenden Stimmen von der IWF-Tagung kann sich Brezinschek in Anbetracht dieser Einschätzungen für 2020 nicht gänzlich erklären. Allerdings könnte sich im kommenden Jahr - insbesondere in der zweiten Hälfte - tatsächlich eine Reihe von Unsicherheitsfaktoren auflösen und dies könnte dann durchaus positiv zum Wachstum beitragen. "Es kommen jetzt viele Entscheidungen, die mehr Klarheit bringen sollten", sagte Brezinschek am Dienstag vor Journalisten.

So könnten die USA und China eine Einigung im Handelsstreit finden. Nicht zuletzt im Hinblick auf die anstehenden US-Präsidentschaftswahlen geht Brezinschek davon aus, "dass (US-Präsident Donald) Trump keinen Durchbruch erzielen wird, aber spätestens im Frühling zumindest ein Scheinabkommen mit China treffen wird damit sich die US-Industrie beruhigt". Auch die Lage rund um den Brexit habe sich etwas entspannt, vor allem nachdem ein ungeordneter Austritt seit dem im britischen Unterhaus beschlossenen Gesetz sehr viel weniger wahrscheinlich geworden ist. Eine endgültige Lösung dürfte es erst im kommenden Jahr geben, einen weiteren Aufschub des Austritts bis März 2020 hält Brezinschek für denkbar. Hinzu kommen einige EU-politische Entscheidungen, die in den kommenden Monaten zu treffen sind.

Woher jedoch das vom IWF avisierte Wachstum von über einem Prozent für Europa kommen soll, sei nicht ganz nachvollziehbar. "Da muss ordentlich etwas passieren", meinte der RBI-Analyst. Der Währungsfonds hat für die Eurozone ein Wachstum von 1,4 Prozent für 2020 prognostiziert. Europa sei wegen seiner hohen Exportquote stark von den laufenden Handelskriegen betroffen, stärker als die USA und China, so Brezinschek. "Daher ist es essenziell, wie der Handelsstreit ausgeht". Einen Dämpfer könnte es zudem geben, sollten die USA im November doch noch Zölle auf europäische Autos einführen. Zudem sei Deutschland auf der IWF-Tagung für mangelnde fiskalpolitische Investitionen stark in die Kritik gekommen. Dabei betreibe das Land eine "sehr expansive Fiskalpolitik", so Brezinschek. Das beispielsweise kürzlich verabschiedete Klimapaket habe auf der Konferenz jedoch kaum Würdigung erhalten.

Die aktuelle Niedrigzinsphase verhelfe den Staaten derzeit zu mehr Spielraum für Investitionen. Wie lange diese Zinsphase aber noch anhält, ist für Brezinschek aber nicht in Stein gemeißelt. Sollten sich ab der zweiten Hälfte 2020 tatsächlich einige Unsicherheitsfaktoren auflösen und es wieder mit der Wirtschaft bergauf gehen, könnte das geldpolitische Umfeld wieder gestrafft werden. Denn dann könnte sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) unter der neuen Führung von Christine Lagarde die Frage stellen, ob die Forward Guidance einer Anpassung an das Umfeld bedarf, so der RBI-Chefanalyst.

  

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Our Global Equity strategists believe international stocks will be the outperformer going forward. This is consistent with their expectation for a rotation into Cyclicals and Value style, which tended to benefit non-US stocks more. In their opinion, Value style is likely to be a big beneficiary of a potential bottoming out in global growth. They are encouraged by the recent uptick in Caixin China PMIs and the rising money supply across key regions. Eurozone manufacturing PMI new orders to inventories ratio moved above one for the first time in a year. In Japan, the latest VAT hike impact should not be as severe as earlier episodes. Further, a gap has opened between Topix and JPY. They stay UW FTSE100, as the upside for the index will be limited by stronger GBP and higher Gilts.

JPMorgan

  

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Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerkenswert starken Arbeitsmarktbericht. Die Zahl neugeschaffener Stellen lag mit 128.000 deutlich über den Erwartungen der Volkswirte. Der Wert läge nach Aussagen der die Daten veröffentlichenden Behörde sogar um mehr als 60.000 Stellen höher, wenn zwei Sonderfaktoren (Streik bei einem großen Autohersteller, abgestellte Personen für die Volksbefragung im kommenden Jahr) berücksichtigt würden. Überdies wurden die „Payroll“-Zahlen für die beiden vorangegangenen Monate um nicht weniger als 95.000 Stellen nach oben revidiert.

  

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>Am vergangenen Freitag sahen wir dann einen bemerkenswert
>starken Arbeitsmarktbericht. Die Zahl neugeschaffener Stellen
>lag mit 128.000 deutlich über den Erwartungen der Volkswirte.
>Der Wert läge nach Aussagen der die Daten veröffentlichenden
>Behörde sogar um mehr als 60.000 Stellen höher, wenn zwei
>Sonderfaktoren (Streik bei einem großen Autohersteller,
>abgestellte Personen für die Volksbefragung im kommenden Jahr)
>berücksichtigt würden. Überdies wurden die „Payroll“-Zahlen
>für die beiden vorangegangenen Monate um nicht weniger als
>95.000 Stellen nach oben revidiert.

Ist halt immer veraltet wenn er erscheint. So wie ich das sehe stehen derzeit in der Industrien eher Job-cuts an. Teilweise sind die Umsätze 10-25% unter Vorjahr was ich von Bekannten so höre...

  

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We maintain a significant and incrementally larger tilt in our model portfolio towards risky assets, based on signs of a cyclical recovery, easing geopolitical tensions, synchronized monetary easing, and defensive investor positioning across asset classes. In September we tilted our model portfolio to benefit from an expected convergence between Value and Momentum assets. We believe this divergence has peaked and convergence is likely to continue going forward, and thus continue to OW Value assets including Value, Small cap, EM and European equities, and Commodities – particularly Energy.
We remain OW equities and OW commodities vs. UW bonds. We incrementally tilt our portfolio more risk-on by shifting part of our UW from credit to government bonds, and unwinding our gold hedge (reversing our OW in gold to a small UW). Within equities we are OW Europe and EM vs. UW the UK regionally. In styles, we remain OW Value vs. Low Vol and Momentum given their still extreme valuation divergence and positioning, and OW cyclicals vs. defensives.

JPMorgan

  

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Yields were also higher in Europe where we even saw 10y OATs (+9.4ps) turn positive for the first time since 16 July, along with 10y yields in Belgium in Sweden. As for Bunds, they were +9.9bps higher and closed at -0.238% - the highest they’ve been since July. That also means Bunds are up +36bps from the October closing lows and +48bps from the all-time lows made back in late August. The other interesting development was that the massive sell-off in BTPs yesterday (+16.2bps) means that the gap between Italian 10yr bonds and their Greek counterparts has shrunk to just 5.3bps. So, this has been a fairly impressive selloff of late and the stock of globally negative yielding debt actually dropped to $11.9tn yesterday. As a reminder that peaked at over $17tn in August.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Equity markets continued to grind higher this week amid some mixed US – China trade newsflow. Emerging markets lagged the Developed and are now the worst performing region ytd, even below the UK. Market leadership was defensive as bond yields fell.

• Over the last couple of months, equity markets have witnessed a strong rotation in internals with Value, Cyclicals and Banks leading. This week some consolidation / profit taking in Cyclicals, as bond yields fell, was seen. The common pushback from clients is that the rotation will not last, and that if it did, it would be a problem for the broader market. Our Global Equity Strategists disagree with these pushbacks. They remain bullish on the overall equity market, and call for a continuation in style rotation. Since the low in September, European Cyclicals have outperformed Defensives by almost 1000bp, but that is typically only half of the past runs. The starting point remains stretched, and fundamentally a turn in PMIs should lead to a sustained rotation. They continue to believe that style and sector rotation will be seen as a positive for the overall market direction. The recent market behavior appears to confirm this, and historically Value worked when markets were rising.

JPMorgan

  

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Our Global Equity strategists remain constructive, believing that upside for stocks is still material, despite the frequent pushback that a lot is in the price, given an already strong equity run of 20%+ ytd. They see three potential drivers of further gains: 1) flows could come back to stocks. Fixed income returns are stalling, which could drive a rotation. 2) One should not dismiss the potential for further P/E rerating. At 16x, the global equity forward P/E multiple is just in line with the historical average of the past 30 years and contrasts to bond yields which are almost 300bp below their averages. At the past cycle peaks for stocks, ahead of the recessions, P/Es tended to be at a significant premium to 5-year rolling averages, of the order of 20%. Looking at the DY-BY gap at the past equity market peaks, it would typically be negative 130bp vs 5y moving averages. In contrast, current equity market dividend yield gap versus 10 year bond yield is outright positive. 3) Earnings momentum could turn. EPS revisions followed weak PMIs throughout the year, but this could be ending. A bounce in PMI’s should lead to an inflection in EPS momentum, in their view.

JPMorgan

  

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We believe that after a globally synchronised slow down over the past 18 months global growth is now bottoming out well short of recession territory and will get back on track early next year.

While activity may slow a bit further from its current levels in the near term, we are optimistic when looking forward several quarters. Uncertainty about trade policy and national politics are getting resolved, there is limited inventory overhang, and the still unprecedented monetary easing is feeding through into the global economy.

Key to our optimism is that the risks of trade wars and Brexit are evolving in positive ways, and the possibility of a radical policy shift to the far left in the US and the UK after their respective elections seems remote. The US has rightly hesitated to implement tariffs on European auto exports, the US and China are making progress on a broad trade deal, and the revised-NAFTA deal could still get a vote this year. On Brexit, assuming a withdrawal agreement passes as is our expectation, focus will soon move to the trade negotiations between the EU and the next UK government, but the tail risk of a no-deal exit has receded significantly. Furthermore, a historic and deep-rooted change towards a more activist dovishness in the three most important central banks, the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ, is keeping volatility low and providing a backstop to the performance of the large economies.

As a result our baseline forecasts have improved. Recent data from Germany has been better than expected, and we now forecast growth to register 1.0 per cent next year, up from 0.5 per cent this year. In the US, we expect growth to dip to 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, but then to rebound back above 2.0 per cent thereafter. Meanwhile, we expect China to continue its slow, managed deceleration without getting derailed.
Our confidence in the underlying macro outlook underpins our market views. We remain bullish on equities, especially in the US, where we expect the S&P500 index to move higher by the end of Q1 next year. Despite improving economic performance we do not expect interest rates to rise much beyond current levels. A global overhang of savings and historically dovish central banks stand in the way of a normalisation of yield curves. I expect the USD to remain strong, reflecting relative interest rates and economic performance even if our FX team worry about US political risks potentially weighing on the Dollar in 2020.

Deutsche Bank
David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist

  

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A slow grind higher

2019 has turned out to be that rarity: a spectacular year for both equity and fixed income returns. Major equity indices are up 15-25% year-to-date, an impressive move even after factoring in last December's risk-off, especially since the global economy slowed quite a bit in 2019. Meanwhile, global bond yields are down sharply, despite a mild sell-off in recent months, just a year after many prominent investors were calling for a multi-year bear market. By any yardstick, financial markets have put in a very creditable performance for 2019. It is one that will be hard to repeat in 2020.
This is not because we expect the economic fundamentals to deteriorate. On the contrary, the major theme in recent months is the extent to which downside risks have faded, on two fronts. First, the news flow has improved radically. In Europe, the chances of a no-deal Brexit have dropped sharply. And while President Trump has made hawkish trade comments in recent days, we still expect a US-China trade detente and are heartened by the fact that rolling back existing tariffs is now part of the conversation.
Second, the economic outlook has brightened, or at least stopped worsening. Global labor markets and consumption have showed impressive resilience to the drag from manufacturing. Even the weaker parts of the global economy, such as the industrial sectors in Europe and China, are showing signs of stabilizing, albeit at low levels.

Barclays

  

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When it comes to the outlook for the economy, one of our main themes is the potential for the euro area to surprise on the upside next year. It may be an unfashionable side of the argument to take, but we don’t believe the euro area is following in Japan’s footsteps. The balance sheets of the euro area’s corporate sector do not resemble those of Japanese firms, companies have moved back into deficit and as with 2019, business investment should help drive GDP growth next year.

On the household side, the labour market remains a source of optimism and 2019 was a better year for the creation of so-called ‘quality’ jobs (full-time and permanent as opposed to part-time and temporary contracts) than 2018. The other key element supporting stronger disposable incomes is rising wage growth, currently printing at 2.1% YoY, compared ~1.5% between 2015 and 2017. In Germany, wages are annualising at over 4% – the strongest since the mid-1990s. Alongside robust bank lending figures, the macro data in the euro area are simply not consistent with an economy supposedly teetering on the edge of a recession.

Jefferies

  

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• Looking into 2020, our Global Equity strategists believe that the positive drivers will continue, at least for the first half. Some negatives could start dominating later on, making 2020 a proverbial year of two halves. They look for the extension of equity advance entering 2020, as positioning is still light, with equity inflows likely to make a comeback. A US recession still looks unlikely over the next quarters, and the manufacturing activity downturn witnessed over the past 18 months is likely to end, partly helped by the trade truce. PMIs are expected to rebound and the positive impact from recent Fed cuts is likely to filter into the economy in 1H. Furthermore, 2020 is a US election year, and markets typically advanced strongly in the run-up to the presidential elections. Equity multiples remain undemanding vs history and vs other asset classes and some potential from further rerating is seen. Earnings growth in 2020 is unlikely to be as strong as consensus projects, but this is not seen as a major obstacle, as long as earnings momentum is bottoming out. Further out though, some negatives could begin to materialize, which the market might start to discount sometime in 2H. US politics could become a lose-lose proposition, and trade uncertainty, as well as hard Brexit risk could come back. The Fed’s credibility might start to be questioned, earnings are overshooting the trend, and rising credit concerns could come to the fore. Further, while one should not expect the next US recession ahead of the presidential elections, the odds of one might go up significantly post the event, in the team’s view.

JPMorgan

  

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Lowest ECB forecasts on record but a steady start for Lagarde

As expected, Christine Lagarde delivered a message that the Governing Council is fully committed to the existing mix of policies on interest rates, forward guidance and QE. This made her first ECB Press Conference devoid of controversy or surprise, and for the markets, brought an hour of Q&A that barely led to a collective raised eyebrow – undoubtedly just as she would have scripted it.

There were, however, some inconsistencies in presentation in our view. For example, the relatively more optimistic tone of the opening statement didn’t match the ECB’s new macro forecasts which are toward the lower end of expectations in terms of where growth and inflation are likely to end up over the coming years. So, for instance, back in September the ECB was pencilling in core inflation at 1.2% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021; now the 2020 figure stands at 1.3%, but in 2021 core inflation is anticipated to rise to only 1.4%. In terms of the new 2022 forecasts, these too were very much on the cautious side, with GDP growth at just 1.4% and both headline and core inflation both at 1.6%.

Interestingly, and this may not be something the ECB would have necessarily intended to draw attention to, a core inflation forecast of 1.6% on a 3-year out horizon is actually the lowest figure the ECB has ever published (although not to blow this out of proportion, in terms of 3-year out forecasts, they have only been published since 2016). One interpretation is that this low figure highlights the scale of the ECB’s challenge in getting inflation back to target. A more generous take is that the ECB is being deliberately overcautious, which then gives it room to push its growth and inflation forecasts higher next year.

Indeed, our own view is that the euro area will outperform expectations in 2020. And if that happens, the ECB will be in a position to raise its forecasts and remove its easing bias around mid-year. However, much is dependent on when the ECB concludes a review of its policy framework.

  

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US & China Trade: Progress But Not a Game Changer

Phase 1 is less ambitious than recent reporting, but modestly beat our below consensus expectations by partially reducing September tariffs. Yet ambiguity on key issues suggests execution risk remains for 2020, meaning this 'uncertain progress' is not yet a 'game changer' for our outlook.

Morgan Stanley

  

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Everything is awesome (when you’re at the peak)

Our below consensus forecasts for 2020 reflect our view on the Fed that we’ve been highlighting in 2019 – namely that the so-called mid-cycle adjustment cycle (cut a few times, wait and hope) will give way to a full easing cycle and a revisit to the zero lower bound is very likely, sometime by 2021. This thesis rests on two main observations. One is our recession probability the other comes from our interpretation of the evolving macro picture where we expect the weakening in global PMIs to continue next year, and so far is, like the yield curve, consistent with a slow bleed into recession. Factors that we expect to persist in 2020 are: low real yields, trade tensions with China, weak global PMIs, benign inflation and the demand for the safety aspects of Treasuries

Citigroup

  

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RBI-Experten sehen Konjunktur und Aktienmärkte 2020 positiv
Politische Risiken dürften Wachstum nicht mehr so stark bremsen

Die Experten der Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) sind für 2020 optimistisch. Mit der Wirtschaft sollte es wieder aufwärtsgehen. Politische Risiken wie Brexit und Handelskonflikte dürften die Konjunktur nicht mehr so stark bremsen wie zuletzt. Weiter positiv gesehen werden die Aktienmärkte, auch wenn bereits 2019 ein "fantastisches Aktienjahr" ist.

Die konjunkturelle Trendwende sei das aktuelle Motto auf den Finanzmärkten und die Aktienmärkte zelebrierten das seit Anfang Oktober mit globalen Kurssteigerungen, so RBI-Chefökonom Peter Brezinschek am Freitag in einer Pressekonferenz. Er sieht dafür einige gute Gründe. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) sei im dritten Quartal in Europa und in den USA besser ausgefallen als erwartet. Die teilweise inverse Zinskurve sie diesmal kein sinnvoller Vorlaufindikator für die Rezession gewesen. Unter anderem habe die expansive Geldpolitik in den USA und in Europa dafür gesorgt, dass die langen Laufzeiten auf den Rentenmärkten stark nach unten verzerrt seien.

Es gebe eine hohe Diskrepanz zwischen der in eine Rezession gelaufenen Industrie und dem Dienstleistungssektor. Auf die Industrie entfielen rund 15 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung und auf Dienstleistungen 85 Prozent. Es sei ein gutes Zeichen, dass es bisher keine Ansteckungseffekte der Industrie gegeben habe. Die vorlaufenden Konjunkturindikatoren begännen sich zu stabilisieren, wenngleich auch einem niedrigen Niveau. Das bedürfe aber noch eine Bestätigung - im Jänner und Februar müssten die Werte zumindest erreicht oder übertroffen werden.

Der 12. Dezember sei ein denkwürdiges Datum gewesen: Die Wahl-Ergebnis in Großbritannien sei ein richtungsweisender Aspekt für den Brexit gewesen und es habe auch eine Einigung den USA und China hinsichtlich eines ersten Teiles eines Handelsabkommens und einer Beendigung dieser Konfliktsituation gegeben. Das sei ein wesentlicher Impuls dafür, "dass diese politischen Bremsklötze sich möglicherweise für 2020 tendenziell auflösen".

Die expansive Geldpolitik wird sich nach Einschätzung der RBI fortsetzen. "Wir erwarten weder in den USA noch in Europa eine Änderung", so Brezinschek. Die EZB stehe 2020 ganz im Zeichen ihres Strategiewechsels, es werde wohl keine großen Maßnahmen geben und eine abwartende Haltung genau so wie in den USA vorrangig sein. Man habe zwar noch eine US-Zinssenkung in den Prognosen, gehe aber davon aus, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit im Laufe des ersten Quartals abnehmen wird, ob diese Zinssenkung kommen wird.

Für die Eurozone wurde die Wachstumsprognose für 2020 leicht auf 0,8 Prozent angehoben, für 2021 auf 1,2 Prozent. Für die USA wurde die Erwartung für 2020 leicht auf 1,7 Prozent angehoben, für 2021 wird ein BIP-Plus von 2,0 Prozent prognostiziert. In Österreich sei die Industrieschwäche ebenfalls angekommen, die Entwicklung bei den Dienstleistungen sei weiter robust. Die Wachstumsprognose für 2019 habe man leicht auf 1,5 Prozent angehoben. Im kommenden Jahr wird die österreichische Wirtschaft laut RBI-Erwartung um 0,8 Prozent wachsen und 2021 um 1,4 Prozent. Die Bankexperten sind damit für 2019 und 2020 etwas vorsichtiger als beispielsweise die Wirtschaftsforscher von Wifo und IHS. Wenig Änderungen erwartet die RBI beim Euro-Dollar-Kurs wegen der Zinskonstanz und Wachstumsparallelität zwischen Eurozone und den USA.

2019 ist ein "fantastisches Aktienjahr" mit plus 20 bis 30 Prozent Indexperformance bei Standardwerten, so Raiffeisen-Centrobank-Chefanalyst Bernd Maurer. Man gehe auch von einem guten Aktienjahr 2020 aus, wenngleich die Kursgewinne wohl niedriger ausfallen dürften als heuer. Die RBI rechnet für 2020 mit Zuwächsen im mittleren bis höheren einstelligen Prozentbereich. Gründe für den positiven Ausblick seien unter anderem die Stabilisierung der Konjunktur und die Abnahme der Rezessionswahrscheinlichkeit. Allerdings seine diesmal keine Kursrückgänge vorausgegangen. Man müsse im Auge behalten, dass die Aktienmärkte seit Oktober gut gelaufen seien und schon etwas eingepreist sei. Die RBI bevorzuge Europa gegenüber den USA, unter anderem wegen relativ günstiger Bewertungen.

  

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Der letzte Handelstag an der Wiener Börse findet am Montag, den 30. Dezember 2019, statt. Es gelten für diesen Börsentag zum Teil verkürzte Handelszeiten:

Aktienwerte
Fortlaufender Handel mit Auktionen: Start der Schlussauktion um 14:15 Uhr
Einmalige untertägige Auktion: keine Änderung

  

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Targets for the major indices are S&P 3400, MSCI EMU 255, FTSE 7720, Topix 1650 and MSCI EM 1200, so generally mid to high single-digit gains from current levels given the magnitude of late 2019 gains.

JPMorgan

  

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With Christine Lagarde fully committed to the policies inherited from Mario Draghi, it is not surprising that the majority of data releases at the moment barely get a second look. Our own view for 2020 is that the euro area economy will outperform expectations. But the incoming data also indicate that the manufacturing sector had not seen a meaningful recovery at the end of last year which means that Q4 GDP growth is unlikely to be materially stronger than the 0.23% QoQ rise recorded in Q3. This week’s European Commission survey for instance helped illustrate the contrasting nature of the current releases with the sentiment readings for industry stuck close to multi-year lows, while those for services, construction and retail – although below the peaks reached in 2017 – are consistent with growth at trend, or perhaps even slightly above. 

 

Just as there may be some confusion over the survey and output data, the same is true for developments related to inflation. Back in early December we were struck by how downbeat the ECB’s latest quarterly forecasts were on the medium-term outlook for core inflation, with forecasts for 2022 (of 1.6%) being the weakest the ECB had ever published in terms of its 3-year out view. Whether this was partly done to help justify the ECB restarting QE at a time when the macro figures were already turning the corner, a way for Lagarde to put her own stamp on the forecasts, a genuine assessment that for structural reasons it is now harder to hit the inflation target, or a creative sleight of hand which gives the ECB space to revise up  its forecasts when it is ready to move policy back to neutral, is up for debate. However, what made the timing curious is that the ECB’s downgrade came at a time when the inflation data in the euro area were starting to give reasons for optimism. Even before core inflation printed at 1.3% on consecutive months in November and December, we were flagging-up firmer trends in ‘super core’ inflation (less volatile and more indicative of domestically generated inflation) and, based on our Deflation Monitor analysis, the fact that an increasing share of the euro area’s inflation basket was registering price rises of above 2% YoY. Somewhere in the system pricing pressures were building, even if the markets didn’t take much notice.

 

So, where to from here?  When it comes to both inflation and to wages, the early months of the year are critical in setting the direction of travel. For core inflation, January is a month which sees by far the largest drop in prices at any point in the year. In a sense, therefore, the question for this month is how strong the Christmas shopping season was, what inventory retailers still have to shift and how aggressive they will be in discounting prices. It is interesting to observe that the depth of price cutting in the euro area was reached in January 2015, with prices falling by less and less in the subsequent Januaries (and the annual rate of core inflation rising slightly in January 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019).

Jefferies

  

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Vor der Vertragsunterzeichnung in Washington am späten Nachmittag unserer Zeit dürften die Schlagzeilen vornehmlich aus Deutschland kommen. Um 10 Uhr werden die Ergebnisse der ersten Hochrechnungen zu BIP-Wachstum und zum Haushaltsüberschuss von Bund, Ländern, Gemeinden und Sozialversicherungen im Jahr 2019 veröffentlicht. Die Wirtschaftsleistung legte im vergangenen Jahr wohl lediglich um 0,6% und damit so wenig wie seit 2013 nicht mehr zu. Der Haushaltsüberschuss dürfte sich auf gut 1,0% des BIPs und damit reichlich über 30 Mrd. Euro belaufen. In diesem Jahr erwarten wir für Deutschland ein BIP-Wachstum von 0,7%. Allerdings haben wir ein Schaltjahr, und etliche Feiertage fallen auf ein Wochenende. In arbeitstäglich bereinigter Form dürfte zu Zuwachs der Wirtschaftsleistung damit lediglich 0,3% betragen.

  

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Hierzulande verdauten die Anleger die deutschen BIP-Zahlen für 2019 ebenfalls sehr schnell. Wie zuvor erwartet legte die Wirtschaftsleistung im vergangenen Jahr um 0,6% zu – das war die schwächste Performance seit 2013. Bund, Länder, Gemeinden und Sozialkassen erwirtschafteten in diesem Umfeld aber immer noch einen Überschuss von fast 50 Mrd. Euro, womit die Staatsschuldenquote erstmals seit dem Jahr 2020 wieder unter die Maastricht-Schwelle von 60% des BIP gerutscht sein dürfte. Eine offizielle Bestätigung dieser Hochrechnung steht allerdings noch aus.

  

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2020 Outlook – Gaining Speed

With some major downside risks to the global economy having been avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing, we believe that global growth will gain speed over the coming months, and even though we already became more bullish in Q4, we have again upgraded our 2020 forecasts for the US, the Euro Area and China.

A key driver behind our upgrades has been the positive resolution of a number of previous downside risks. The agreement of a Phase One deal between the US and China has avoided a further escalation in tariffs between the two sides, and led to a partial rollback of some existing tariffs. In the UK, the general election result has provided a stable majority in the House of Commons in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement reached with the EU. Furthermore, recent monetary stimulus from global central banks and an easing of financial conditions have helped to support growth.

As we look forward into 2020 there are still a number of risks that could knock our forecasts off course. We’ve already been reminded of geopolitical risks so far this year and this needs to be watched. Meanwhile, important trade negotiations will continue to take centre-stage in 2020, with the US-China trade talks moving towards their second phase, trade discussions between the US and the EU ongoing, and the start of them between the EU and the UK. The US election in November will also increasingly pre-occupy investors as we move through the year.

In spite of our positivity on the economic outlook, our strategists’ views are more nuanced. After a decade of continuous (and accurate) street topping double digit annual forecasts for the S&P 500, our strategists expect a flat return in 2020. A big change. Positioning and valuations are stretched. Elsewhere we retain a bearish call on oil and GBP, and also see 10-year bund yields moving to zero by year-end.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Our global equity strategists acknowledge that the latest health scare could potentially lead to more near-term de-risking, but they note that past pandemics episodes didn’t lead to sustained selling, they tended to ultimately be buying opportunities. Looking at earnings, they argue that current projections for the next two reporting seasons are too low, outright below what was already delivered in Q2 and Q3 of last year, which is historically very unusual. As a result, they expect positive earnings surprises. They highlight that the market reaction to such positive earnings surprises has been strong in previous quarters. They disagree with the widespread view that EPS downgrades to the full year numbers might limit further gains for stocks. Double-digit projections 12-24 months out by IBES are the norm. If one was to worry about elevated EPS growth projections by consensus of sell side analysts, then one would end up never buying stocks. Finally, the deceleration in PMI momentum which was pressuring earnings growth over the past 18 months is likely to inflect higher. Topline is likely to benefit from a potential peaking in the USD and the consequent bounce in commodity prices. Crucially, corporate guidance is likely to be somewhat stronger going forward, due to better macro data, as well as trade ceasefire.

JPMorgan

  

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Rentenmärkte brummen

Emissionsvolumen von 200 Mrd. Euro überschritten.

Wien. Die Emission von neuen Anleihen in Europa hat den bisher besten Jahresauftakt verzeichnet: In Rekordzeit wurden mehr als 200 Mrd. Euro auf dem Rentenmarkt emittiert, wie aus Daten der Agentur Bloomberg hervorgeht.

https://www.diepresse.com/5757853/rentenmarkte-brummen

  

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Der Notfallausschuss der Weltgesundheitsorganisation kommt angesichts der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus heute Mittag zu einer Sondersitzung zusammen. Die Anleger sind in Sorge, es könnten Maßnahmen angeordnet werden, welche zu einer weiteren konjunkturellen Belastung werden könnten. Und so starten die Aktienmärkte mit größeren Verlusten in den Handelstag.

  

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Our Global Equity strategy team believes that the markets are likely to stay under pressure in the short term, as the current health scare could easily worsen, before getting better. Having said that, they note that the more the markets fall in the near term, the more are they likely to bounce once the number of cases appears to be peaking. They believe that this will turn into a buying opportunity, especially given the constructive fundamental backdrop. Economic activity is bottoming out post two years of rising trade uncertainty, earnings results are coming out ahead of expectations in both the US and Europe, central banks remain very dovish and there is an increasing chance of further stimulus announcements to counter the latest headwind. They reiterate their bullish view on UK domestic plays. The group is likely to benefit from the expected inflection higher in UK dataflow – housing, consumer confidence and business confidence. These have been under pressure for the best part of three years and now offer favourable base effects, as well as some pent-up demand. On P/E metric, the Domestic plays are trading at nearly 20% discount to Exporters, and they have double the dividend yield. The team also continues to prefer FTSE250 vs FTSE100. They remain UW UK equities in the regional context, though.

JPMorgan

  

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• Equities shrugged off the headwind from the coronavirus outbreak, for now, making fresh all-time highs in both the US and in Europe. All regions were in the green, with International outperforming the US. EM equities stabilized versus DM stocks. At a sector level, Cyclicals staged a strong rebound in both the US and in Europe.
• Our global equity strategists believe the fundamental backdrop remains constructive for the equity markets. The coronavirus outbreak is a potential source of further short term volatility; however, the China growth impact is likely to be more about the readjustment of H1 trajectory, rather than materially hurting the full year growth numbers. PMIs should be higher in 2H vs current on stronger money supply, reduced inventories, trade ceasefire, and on a potential for more vigorous Chinese stimulus. Earnings momentum is improving, with robust Q4 results, labour markets remain very strong, and central banks extremely accommodative. Our strategists stay with the view that stock indices will make further all-time highs before the next US recession strikes. Finally, they advise to use the dip to add to EM, especially if USD is peaking, stay bullish on UK domestic and on Euro peripheral plays.

JPMorgan

  

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• Global equity markets moved to fresh highs this week, supported by positive earnings delivery and some signs of stabilization in the ongoing nCov outbreak. Eurozone and EM performed marginally better than the US. Cyclicals outperformed Defensives, with Mining and Discretionary featuring among the best performing subsectors.

. The significant PMI deceleration in '18 and '19, driven by mounting trade uncertainty, could be coming to an end. PMI internals are encouraging, where inventories have reduced significantly during 2019. Our strategists believe that bond yields and PMIs will move higher from here, and that market internals should follow. They are particularly positive on sectors that display operating leverage to economic activity.

JPMorgan

  

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The correction we have seen in the stock market over the past six trading sessions is the fastest 10% decline in the S&P500 from a record high. The speed of the decline over the past week even beats the Black Monday episode in October 1987, where the peak was in August 1987.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Disruption, Dislocations and Delayed Recovery

With economic activity disrupted and capital markets dislocated, investors are debating if Covid-19 will derail the global cycle. In times of sharp drops in asset markets, pessimistic prognoses are easy to make, but it is at times like this when some perspective is warranted.

Coming into the year, we had a growing body of evidence that, after a tough 18 months, the global economy was on the mend. PMIs new orders were improving from October and headline PMIs troughed then too. Global trade was growing again in December after contracting for six months. While there was still skepticism then, we thought these data points were lending support to our thesis of a global recovery taking hold from 1Q20.

The outbreak of Covid-19 has certainly changed the near-term narrative. It is an untimely shock, considering that the starting point of global growth was weak, and the recovery was very nascent. The disruptions to economic activity will create a pronounced impact on global growth in 1Q20.

The question is whether this is an exogenous, transitory shock or one that fundamentally challenges the cycle. We are in the former camp.
Indeed, throughout this expansion cycle, we have had a series of shocks to the global economy, which have led to a number of mini-cycles in global growth, but have actually helped to extend the cycle as we did not have the runway to go into a traditional overheating situation.

Given the uncertainty over the virus outbreak, we see three possible scenarios for the road ahead:

Scenario #1 – containment by March: The virus outbreak is contained by end-March and production disruption is limited to 1Q20. Policy-makers in China and Asia will provide meaningful policy support, with China expanding its fiscal deficit by 120bp, keeping it high for the second year running. Global growth dips to 2.5%Y in 1Q20 (from 2.9%Y in 4Q19), but recovers meaningfully from 2Q20.

Scenario #2 – escalation in new geographies, disruption extends into 2Q20: New cases continue to rise in other parts of the world, before peaking by end-May. The disruption extends into 2Q20, affecting corporate profitability in select sectors, risking the emergence of corporate credit risks. If the dislocations in asset markets also persist into 2Q20, the sharp tightening in financial conditions may well become the overwhelming factor and exacerbate the impact on growth via weaker corporate confidence and capex and cutbacks in hiring activity.

In response, policy-makers around the world will step up easing measures – with fiscal policy in Asia and Europe and monetary policy in the US doing the heavy lifting. Indeed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in March and to maintain an explicit promise to continue if growth damage extends.

Global growth averages just 2.4%Y in 1H20, but picks up from 3Q20.
Scenario #3 – persisting into 3Q, escalating recession risks: The virus continues to spread into 3Q, encompassing all the large economies. China faces a renewed rise in new cases as it restarts production. Disruption continues into 3Q. The extended disruption to economic activity damages corporate profitability and brings about a rise in corporate credit risks and significant tightening in financial conditions, which exacerbate the slowdown in global growth.

Central banks will embark on a renewed easing cycle, with the potential for a coordinated response. We expect the global weighted average monetary policy rate to dip to its lowest level since 2012.

The Fed extends the cuts from March-June and becomes more aggressive in 50bp increments to take rates to close to the lower bound by 3Q20.

The fiscal response across key DM and EM economies also becomes more aggressive, with China taking up 200bp of fiscal expansion. The cyclically adjusted primary fiscal deficit for G4 and China widens to 5.1% of GDP in 2020, from 4.1% in 2019. Global growth stays weak (i.e., below 2.5%Y) between 1Q20-3Q20.

MS

  

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The US has become the newest focus of the COVID-19 crisis via this week's CDC warning, despite a very low number of actual cases (60 confirmed vs Italy 700, Korea 2k, China 78k). Markets are understandably fast-forwarding to a recession scenario, mindful of how Chinese containment measures will deliver a contraction in that economy this quarter. The +40% odds of recession discounted in some markets seems excessive, but stability will require either a peak in US/European infection rates then decline to a single-digit pace, or evidence of capitulation in cross-asset positioning measures. Unfortunately, this public health crisis intersects with a step-up in US political risk as the Democratic primaries lean towards a candidate favoring numerous disruptive tax and regulatory policies.

JPMorgan

  

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• Despite signs of a near 0% COVID-19 infection rate in Mainland China and ongoing normalization in some activity data (traffic, shipping and real estate activity, but not commodity usage), global markets are experiencing one of their worst drawdowns of the past 20 years. The 15% drop in global equities and the -7% drop in a multi-asset portfolio from their highs in early February rival the worst corrections of the 2018-2019 trade war (including December 2018) and has only been exceeded by losses that occurred during the EMU Crisis and the early-2000s US accounting scandals (-20% moves). By the standards of previous demand shocks like epidemics and natural disasters to which COVID-19 is sometimes compared, the coronavirus has become epic, with a wealth loss from the stock market decline alone (about $6trn in market capitalization) running at over ten times the cumulative economic losses from all major hurricanes to have hit the US in the past 30 years.

JPMorgan

  

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• Our Quantitative strategists believe that selling from systematic strategies and option hedgers was another significant driver of price action. Option hedging likely resulted in $40-50Bn of outflows, CTAs ~$40-60Bn selling, and volatility targeting strategies ~$40-60Bn of selling. Market depth dropped by over 50%, so this total selling of ~$150Bn produced a large market impact. Dealers’ gamma turned significantly short and the team notes that gamma hedging works either way, i.e. should there be a move higher option hedgers would need to buy a significant amount of equities.

JPMorgan

  

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We retain our bullish full-year targets on the assumption that the situation is brought under control well before then. One key parameter to watch in that regard is the virus’ ability to transmit in hotter climates.

Citigroup

  

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>We retain our bullish full-year targets on the assumption
>that the situation is brought under control well before then.
>One key parameter to watch in that regard is the virus’
>ability to transmit in hotter climates.

Dachte mir eben darauf braucht man nicht übermäßig zu hoffen in Anbetracht der Fälle im Iran. Aber dort ist es tatsächlich für mich überraschend recht kühl um diese Jahreszeit. Die Hoffnung lebt.

  

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In a very rare move (last time this happened was 2007) the FED came out on Friday evening saying it will act as appropriate to support the economy, making it a virtual certainty that an interest rate cut will happen at the latest at the next FED meeting on 18th of March.

  

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Mögen sie recht haben:

This week we saw two materially positive developments for risky assets: the strong result by moderate democrats in Super Tuesday that arrested progressives’ rise, and the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The COVID-19 epidemic (specifically, the economic impact of preventative measures and fear) remains the main source of risk, but the market has significantly repriced this risk over the past couple of weeks. We expect the impact of COVID-19 to be temporary and mitigated by broad policy stimulus, even as the virus spread is proving more severe than anticipated. Our economists marked down growth expectations for the quarter globally on the back of the virus, but look for a strong rebound in activity once the epidemic abates. The broad risk-off sentiment last week also triggered sharp de-leveraging by systematic investors, such that positioning from these investors has turned into a tailwind for the market.

JPMorgan

  

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Another ominous anecdote that portrays all evil has played out is that in 2009 we troughed March 6th at 666 on the S&P. Today is… March 6th and the Intraday bottom of the 10Y was 0.66%. We may have hit some interesting technicals that signal a possible bottom, and the sheer fact that I am even alluding to 2008 poses the question is now a buying opportunity?

In reality, we are in a much better place now then we were then. Case in point, we had one of the best NFP reports ever seen that ironically, was also the most meaningless.


  

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The Wuhan lockdown lasted 50 days, which means that the US and Europe should be prepared that we may get to early May before we begin to see some normalization in economic activity. Markets, however, are likely to rebound before, and many conversations this week have been about what the rebound will look like. During the 1918 pandemic stock markets fell 33%, and the subsequent rebound was relatively muted.

Today, we may see a stronger rebound because of a more aggressive fiscal and monetary policy response. We could also see a more muted rebound as consumers and corporates rebuild cash levels, or because of a longer-lasting negative impact on corporate bond markets, or because of the unusual liquidity-driven negative correlation between equities and long rates, which is likely to reverse once markets normalize with higher equities again being associated with higher rates.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Aufgrund eines bei der US-Börsenaufsicht SEC eingereichten Formulars wissen wir bereits, dass Buffett gut 976.000 Aktien von Delta Air Lines (WKN: A0MQV8) zu seinem Portfolio hinzugefügt hat ...

Quelle: https://www.fool.de/2020/03/20/3-aktien-die-buffett-in-der-coronakorrektur-sehr-wahrschei nlich-gekauft-hat/

-------------------

Wer traut sich gerade jetzt auf Aktien, noch dazu Airlines(!), zu setzen. Warren Buffett! <7i>

  

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>Aufgrund eines bei der US-Börsenaufsicht SEC eingereichten
>Formulars wissen wir bereits, dass Buffett gut 976.000 Aktien
>von Delta Air Lines (WKN: A0MQV8) zu seinem Portfolio
>hinzugefügt hat ...

>Wer traut sich gerade jetzt auf Aktien, noch dazu
>Airlines(!), zu setzen. Warren Buffett! <7i>


Wow, noch dazu hat er sich schon mal mit USAir in den 90igern die Finger verbrannt.

Ich vermute seine Finanzkraft garantiert ihm ein Überleben von Delta Air (braucht ja nur notfalls Einschießen), die Konkurrenz wird sich gewaltig reduzieren und irgendwann wird wieder geflogen. Aber dieser Long-Term-View mit seinem Alter... bewundernswert.

  

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>>Aufgrund eines bei der US-Börsenaufsicht SEC
>eingereichten
>>Formulars wissen wir bereits, dass Buffett gut 976.000
>Aktien
>>von Delta Air Lines (WKN: A0MQV8) zu seinem Portfolio
>>hinzugefügt hat ...
>
>>Wer traut sich gerade jetzt auf Aktien, noch dazu
>>Airlines(!), zu setzen. Warren Buffett! <7i>
>
>
>Wow, noch dazu hat er sich schon mal mit USAir in den 90igern
>die Finger verbrannt.
>
>Ich vermute seine Finanzkraft garantiert ihm ein Überleben von
>Delta Air (braucht ja nur notfalls Einschießen), die
>Konkurrenz wird sich gewaltig reduzieren und irgendwann wird
>wieder geflogen. Aber dieser Long-Term-View mit seinem
>Alter... bewundernswert.



P.S.: Market Cap von Delta noch immer 13 Mrd. trotz -63% ytd. Recht starke Bilanz mE für eine Fluglinie.

  

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>Kostolany-Jünger Stefan Riße im Interview:
>
>"Denkbar, dass der Boden erreicht ist (war).
>Vielleicht gar neue Höchststände dieses Jahr noch."
>
>Quelle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZONELKjq3M
>
>Quelle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ABFY3G_O4



Da habe ich früher einen Lotto-6er.

  

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>>Kostolany-Jünger Stefan Riße im Interview:
>>
>>"Denkbar, dass der Boden erreicht ist (war).
>>Vielleicht gar neue Höchststände dieses Jahr noch."
>>
>>Quelle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZONELKjq3M
>>
>>Quelle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ABFY3G_O4
>
>
>
>Da habe ich früher einen Lotto-6er.


Jedenfalls so ganz sind seine Argumente ja nicht wegzuweisen.

  

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Stand jetzt hatte WB ja mal wieder recht.

“Seien Sie ängstlich, wenn die Welt gierig ist und seien Sie gierig, wenn die Welt ängstlich ist.

  

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The conditions we had set for markets to stabilize then revive – a significant slowdown in COVID infection rates, recession-like pricing across financial markets, a reversal in investor positioning and extraordinary fiscal stimulus – have mostly been met. The wildcard issue remains infection rates, which are slowing in US/Europe but remain high. At least central banks are exceeding our expectations for inventiveness via facilities like the Fed's corporate bond program and the ECB's more flexible sovereign/corporate program. Risky markets should remain volatile as long as infection rates create uncertainty about the depth and duration of the COVID recession, but enough has changed fundamentally and technically to justify adding risk selectively.

JPMorgan

  

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• Our global equity strategists believe that the risk-reward for equities remains skewed to the downside. Given the sharp collapse endured by stocks in the last month, one has to see relief rallies, but they believe that these will end up being faded. They stick with a defensive allocation given potentially a much larger activity hit than consensus is expecting

JPMorgan

  

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Global Asset Allocation

Risky markets are overly pessimistic in our opinion pricing in a combination of U- to L-shaped recovery. We believe that risky markets will increasingly look at China, which appears to be experiencing a V-shaped recovery, as the template for Western economies. Mass testing should also allow for faster relaxation of lockdowns from next month.

We add risk by raising our allocation to corporate bonds by eleven percentage points at the expense of government bonds and cash. We maintain a modest equity overweight. We see a clear case for overweighting HG credit given central bank backstops for HG corporate bonds. There are no direct central bank backstops for either HY credit or equities apart from Japanese equities which are being bought by the BoJ. We thus also see a case for OW Japan within equities. We overweight commodities focused on energy.

JPMorgan

  

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COVID-19: Looking Beyond the Peak

Over the past week it has been striking to see how investors have reacted to the first signs that new COVID-19 cases in New York are starting to stabilize. While we understand the desire for optimism, we also caution that the US outbreak is far from over. Recovering from this acute period in the outbreak is just the beginning and not the end. We believe the path to re-opening the economy is going to be long. It will require turning on and off various forms of social distancing and will only come to an end when vaccines are available, in the spring of 2021 at the earliest.
With Italy finally turning the corner in its outbreak as the growth in new daily cases has started to decline, the market has turned its attention to the US.

We argue that only after we see (1) adequate surge capacity in hospitals, (2) broad public health infrastructure to support testing for disease surveillance, (3) robust contact tracing to curtail “hot spots” and (4) widespread availability of serology testing (blood tests to see who is already immune to the virus) can the US confidently return to work. We see this happening in waves starting in mid-summer. Unfortunately, we think there will still be a large number of workers not able to go back to work until a vaccine is abundantly available as social distancing cannot be fully relaxed until we have herd immunity (~60% of people vaccinated). Furthermore, large venues such as sports stadiums, concert halls and theme parks are also likely to remain shut or have attendance capped at 10-25% of prior levels. This view on the delayed peak and slow return to work has led our US economists to revise their US forecast to a return to pre-COVID-19 levels not until 4Q21.
Despite the significant concerns we raise about the path to a US recovery, we continue to believe the market is underestimating the impact the drug pipeline can have on the public policy response to the virus. We should stress that investors cannot afford to lose sight of the fact that only a vaccine will provide a true solution to this pandemic. We also believe that governments should invest in large-scale vaccine manufacturing prior to successful results for all viable candidates despite some not making it to market. Only by building production capacity now can governments provide the billions of vaccine doses we need to meet demand for the 2021 season. That said, in the interim there are promising antivirals and antibody therapies in the pipeline with data starting in April and continuing through the late summer. We believe that at least some of these drugs can be successful and help to turn severe cases into milder forms of the disease. Such an outcome could reduce the potential strain on hospitals and allow public health officials to support a broader re-opening of the economy before a vaccine is available. Thus, with therapeutics available in the near term and a vaccine on the horizon, the market could start to “look through” the slow US recovery and back to pricing in future US growth.

Morgan Stanley

  

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• In the US, the next three weeks will be informative as ~80% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report. Consensus expectations have adjusted more rapidly in recent weeks (1Q S&P 500 EPS growth rate revised down to -11% y/y) but estimates are likely still too high given limited corporate guidance, especially relative to Europe where earnings have been revised down by 40-70%. Further, the very high dispersion in consensus estimates is indicative of high uncertainty and poor visibility. For these reasons, 1Q earnings season is expected to be volatile with increasing risk of more companies suspending guidance and cutting shareholder return. While the earnings outlook will remain challenged, investors are increasingly discounting the COVID-19 hit to fundamentals this year and turning their gaze to 2021 recovery. Our strategists maintain a positive view on US equities given faster than expected progress in governments containing the virus, unprecedented monetary and fiscal response, and very favorable investor positioning.

JPMorgan

  

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Jeremy Siegel ist Professor für Finanzen an der Wharton School of Business der University of Pennsylvania. Ende 2015, als der Dow Jones bei etwa 17.500 stand, prophezeite er einen Anstieg auf 20.000 ...

Quelle: https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/professor-sagt-wir-werden-die-ti efststaende-von-maerz-nicht-mehr-sehen-20201027.html

  

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>Jeremy Siegel ist Professor für Finanzen an der Wharton
>School of Business der University of Pennsylvania. Ende 2015,
>als der Dow Jones bei etwa 17.500 stand, prophezeite er einen
>Anstieg auf 20.000 ...
>

Oje, ein Professor der sich in einer Marktvorhersage versucht. Kontraindikator

  

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>>Jeremy Siegel ist Professor für Finanzen an der Wharton
>>School of Business der University of Pennsylvania. Ende
>2015,
>>als der Dow Jones bei etwa 17.500 stand, prophezeite er
>einen
>>Anstieg auf 20.000 ...
>>
>
>Oje, ein Professor der sich in einer Marktvorhersage versucht.
>Kontraindikator


Bekannt durch sein Buch "Stocks for the long run"

  

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>>>Anstieg auf 20.000 ...
>>>
>>
>>Oje, ein Professor der sich in einer Marktvorhersage
>versucht.
>>Kontraindikator
>
>
>Bekannt durch sein Buch "Stocks for the long run"

Das klingt schon besser. Ich sage ja auch eine 10.000 Punkte rally voraus. Aber ob wir die März tiefs sehen oder nicht, weiß niemand.

  

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>Jim Rogers gilt als einer der bekanntesten Investmentexperten
>weltweit ...
>
>Quelle:https://finanzmarktwelt.de/jim-rogers-das-schlimmste-kommt-noch-hoert-endlich-auf-geld-zu -drucken-166952/

Ich habe mir die Stunde angehört, ein bisschen lang vielleicht für eine Menge an Altersweisheiten und Höflichkeiten, aber OK. Jim Rogers ist jedenfalls ein Recke im Kampf gegen überbewertete Aktien und daher hier mit Sicherheit kein kampfblinder Bulle.
Wenn man die vielen Worte zusammenkochen möchte auf (machbare) Empfehlungen:
1) keine Aktien, aber wenn, dann in die Transport-, Tourismus- und Flugunternehmen, die voraussichtlich nicht pleite gehen werden.
2) Rohstoffe (bevorzugt Gold, aber überhaupt)
3) Immobilien, aber ohne überbewertete Lage (wie New York oder Frankfurt), sondern mit Nutzungspotential (Agrarwirtschaft)
4) Informiertheit: Investiere in Verständnis für Dinge, über die du Bescheid wissen sollest.
4a) Verständnis für Geld im Allgemeinen
4b) Verständnis für dein Zielobjekt
5) Verständnis: Investiere in, wessen Natur du soweit möglich begriffen hast.

In Kürze: Investiere in Substanz und die nötige Bildung, sie zu beurteilen

  

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4b) Verständnis für dein Zielobjekt

die jahrelang zurückhaltende kreditnachfrage seitens der realwirtschaft wird sich nach meiner einschätzung nicht weiter fortsetzen. die krise hat viel zerstört was mittelfristig raum für wachstum schafft. der mögliche silberstreif am horizont der bankenlandschaft sollte, angesichts der relativ schwachen bewertung der europäischen banken, bei investoren zunehmendes interesse wecken.

ps: die derzeitige krise ist eine realwirtschaftliche angebot- und nachfragekrise, keine finanzkrise!

  

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>Ray Dalio: We must reform capitalism, not abandon it
>
>https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/15/perspectives/ray-dalio-capitalism/index.html

----------

Noch heuer in Davos. Ray Dalio: "Cash is Trash"

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAs4UanYSi0

-----

Nachdem z.b die Geldmenge seit Jänner explosionsartig um 30% zugenommen hat in den USA gilt das alles eigentlich jetzt erst recht?


  

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>>... because the Fed will overcompensate.
>>
>>Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvhEbkffoiI
>>
>Eigentlich macht das wenig Freude.

Lapidare Zusammenfassung von O'Learys Prognose:
Powell said:
"Die US-Notenbank könne ihre Hilfen für die Wirtschaft noch deutlich ausweiten", betonte Powell. "Wir können noch viel mehr tun. Wir haben das getan, was wir vorübergehend tun konnten. Aber uns ist die Munition noch lange nicht ausgegangen. Nein, es gibt wirklich keine Grenzen, was wir mit diesen Kreditprogrammen machen können. Wir können also noch viel mehr tun, um die Wirtschaft zu unterstützen, und wir verpflichten uns, alles zu tun, was wir können, solange wir müssen", betonte Powell. "Zunächst einmal können wir sicherlich unsere bestehenden Kreditprogramme erweitern. Bei Bedarf können wir neue Kreditprogramme starten. Wir können das schaffen. Es gibt Dinge, die wir in der Geldpolitik tun können. Es gibt eine Reihe von Dimensionen, in denen wir uns bewegen können, um die Politik noch akkommodierender zu gestalten. Durch die Forward Guidance können wir unsere Strategie zum Kauf von Vermögenswerten ändern. Es gibt eine Menge Dinge, die wir tun können."
This said: Buy, what else...


"Seid fruchtbar und mehret euch und füllt Eure Aktienportfolios!"
Und sie gingen hin und mehrten brav.

Das ist als, ob Bolsonaro sagte, er gäbe jetzt den Rest-Regenwald zur Abholzung frei. "Seid unverfroren und heizet ein. Der kommende Winter ist abgesichert, sei er so kalt wie möchte!"

Das ist in Wirklichkeit unverfrorener Raubbau an unser aller Zukunft. Und zugleich eine langfristige riesige Umverteilungsaktion von Vermögen. Während in den kommenden Jahren alle die damit zwangsläufige Geldentwertung begleichen müssen (wie sonst ist eine derart abartige formale Geldmengenausweitung bei gesunkener Bewertungsbasis einzustufen), wird nur ein eingeschränkter Personenkreis, der jetzt sofort geeignet reagieren kann, den Geldsegen einfangen können. So wie auch jetzt die ganzen kleinen pleitegegangenen Einzelhandelsgeschäfte im Umsatz der wenigen verbliebenen großen Handelsketten aufgehen werden.

  

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>Das ist in Wirklichkeit unverfrorener Raubbau an unser aller
>Zukunft. Und zugleich eine langfristige riesige
>Umverteilungsaktion von Vermögen. Während in den kommenden
>Jahren alle die damit zwangsläufige Geldentwertung begleichen
>müssen (wie sonst ist eine derart abartige formale
>Geldmengenausweitung bei gesunkener Bewertungsbasis
>einzustufen), wird nur ein eingeschränkter Personenkreis, der
>jetzt sofort geeignet reagieren kann, den Geldsegen einfangen
>können. So wie auch jetzt die ganzen kleinen pleitegegangenen
>Einzelhandelsgeschäfte im Umsatz der wenigen verbliebenen
>großen Handelsketten aufgehen werden.



Läuft ja vieles schon seit Jahren. Bezahlen werden womöglich bis sehr wahrscheinlich die, die Bargeld, Sparbücher, Bausparer und ähliche Produkte besitzen. Auch viele Pensionisten, Arbeiter, Angestellte ... werden eher nicht zu den Umverteilungsgewinnern gehören.
Ist an diesem Zustand aber irgendwas zu ändern? Nein.

Sachwerte könnten womöglich in den nächsten Jahren sogar zu einem "Overshoot" ansetzen. Denn eines ist klar: Das Virusproblem wird irgendwann gehen, die wahnsinnige Liquidität wird bleiben.

  

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>>Das ist in Wirklichkeit unverfrorener Raubbau an unser
>aller
>>Zukunft. Und zugleich eine langfristige riesige
>>Umverteilungsaktion von Vermögen. Während in den
>kommenden
>>Jahren alle die damit zwangsläufige Geldentwertung
>begleichen
>>müssen (wie sonst ist eine derart abartige formale
>>Geldmengenausweitung bei gesunkener Bewertungsbasis
>>einzustufen), wird nur ein eingeschränkter Personenkreis,
>der
>>jetzt sofort geeignet reagieren kann, den Geldsegen
>einfangen
>>können. So wie auch jetzt die ganzen kleinen
>pleitegegangenen
>>Einzelhandelsgeschäfte im Umsatz der wenigen verbliebenen
>>großen Handelsketten aufgehen werden.

>
>
>Läuft ja vieles schon seit Jahren. Bezahlen werden womöglich
>bis sehr wahrscheinlich die, die Bargeld, Sparbücher,
>Bausparer und ähliche Produkte besitzen. Auch viele
>Pensionisten, Arbeiter, Angestellte ... werden eher nicht zu
>den Umverteilungsgewinnern gehören.
>Ist an diesem Zustand aber irgendwas zu ändern? Nein.
>
>Sachwerte könnten womöglich in den nächsten Jahren sogar zu
>einem "Overshoot" ansetzen. Denn eines ist klar: Das
>Virusproblem wird irgendwann gehen, die wahnsinnige Liquidität
>wird bleiben.
>

Ich bin da eurer Meinung. Jetzt stellt sich die Frage, wie stellt man sich auf dieses Szenario ein.

Wie erwähnt, habe ich mir mal ein ETF auf die Breakeven Inflation zugelegt.

  

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>>> Jetzt stellt sich die Frage, wie
>stellt man sich auf dieses Szenario ein.

mMn, indem man in eine schuldenfreie, selbstgenutzte Immobilie investiert.

Genau das mache ich dieser Tage und das ist ein gutes Gefühl...

  

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>Jetzt stellt sich die Frage, wie
>stellt man sich auf dieses Szenario ein.

ich würde meinen, jeder entsprechend seiner vermögenslage,
wobei ein altes sprichwort auch für vermögen gültigkeit hat:
"kleine kinder kleine sorgen, große kinder der große sorgen".

  

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Eine Erklärung für die beachtliche Vola, vorallem bei amerikanischen Nebenwerten und Pennystocks, siehe Hertz.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/business/sports-gamblers-stocks-virus.html

When he wasn’t coaching sports, he was playing them or watching them. And if he was watching — well, a little skin in the game always made it more interesting for Steven Young, a teacher outside Philadelphia. Just small-dollar bets, mixed in with shuffling the rosters of his fantasy teams.

But when the coronavirus pandemic hit, all the games he cared about sputtered to a stop. So he turned to one of the last places in town for reliable action: the stock market.

Mr. Young withdrew all the money from his sportsbook accounts and deposited it into Robinhood, the free stock-trading platform. When his federal stimulus check arrived, he put money from that in, too.

  

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>Eine Erklärung für die beachtliche Vola, vorallem bei
>amerikanischen Nebenwerten und Pennystocks, siehe Hertz.


Ja, die bankruptcies sind irre, z. B. auch Chesapeake Energy.

  

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>>Eine Erklärung für die beachtliche Vola, vorallem bei
>>amerikanischen Nebenwerten und Pennystocks, siehe Hertz.
>
>
>Ja, die bankruptcies sind irre, z. B. auch Chesapeake Energy.

Ob das aber den Gesamtmarkt wie im Artikel dargestellt auch beeinflusst, habe ich eher Zweifel.

Wiewohl gerüchtweise beim Donnerstag Sell Off reihenweise Margin Calls den Trend verstärkt haben dürften.

  

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>Ob das aber den Gesamtmarkt wie im Artikel dargestellt auch
>beeinflusst, habe ich eher Zweifel.

Kann ich mir auch nicht vorstellen, soviel Volumen in Relation wird das nicht sein.


  

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>>Eine Erklärung für die beachtliche Vola, vorallem bei
>>amerikanischen Nebenwerten und Pennystocks, siehe Hertz.
>
>Ja, die bankruptcies sind irre, z. B. auch Chesapeake Energy.

Apropos irre:

Ein SPO während der Pleite:

Hertz Warns Stock Buyers Will Need Miracle to Avoid Wipeout

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-global-slides-pact-sell-120100166.html

  

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Ein Experte hat sich mal ausgerechnet, dass wenn Kleinanleger und Spieler auf Robin Hood 10.000 Euro (ziemlich viel für solche Leute) haben sie eher NICHT diesen riesigen Markt ernsthaft bewegen können.

  

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• While we still find significant remaining short base at US equity index level, at an individual stock level the post-virus short base in US stocks appears to have been largely covered.
• But outside US stocks, the short covering process looks less advanced.
• Less than a third of the previous short base that had opened up on Euro area and UK stocks during Feb/Mar has been unwound so far.


JPMorgan

  

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Goldman Sachs analysiert: Privatanleger schlagen Finanzprofis

Oliver Baron (Guidants/godmode-trader) schreibt:

Von der Kurserholung nach dem Corona-Crash haben private Trader und Anleger deutlich stärker profitiert als milliardenschwere Hedgefonds, wie eine Auswertung von Goldman Sachs ergeben hat.

Das Ergebnis der Analyse: Während das Depot mit den Lieblingsaktien der Privatanleger seit dem Tief im Corona-Crash rund 61 Prozent zulegen konnte, schaffte es das Depot mit den Lieblingsaktien der Hedgefonds nur auf ein Plus von 45 Prozent.

Die Lieblingsaktien der Privatanleger haben sich seit dem Crash deutlich besser entwickelt als die Lieblingsaktien der Hedgefonds, heißt es in einer Mitteilung von Goldman Sachs an die Kunden der Bank. Privatanleger setzten im Crash vor allem auf stark gefallene Aktien etwa von Fluggesellschaften, Casinos und Kreuzfahrtunternehmen. Diese Papiere brachen zwar im Crash besonders stark ein, konnten sich anschließend prozentual aber auch wieder deutlich stärker erholen als der Gesamtmarkt.

Der starke Anstieg der Handelsaktivität von Privatanlegern habe die Rotation des Marktes in Richtung zyklischer Aktien und Value-Aktien verstärkt, schrieb David Kostin, Chefstratege für US-Aktien bei Goldman Sachs, in der Notiz an die Kunden. Investoren hätten zuletzt vor allem auf Zykliker, Small-Caps und andere Aktien mit günstiger Bewertung gesetzt, so Kostin.

  

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TLTRO Liquidity Boost

The ECB allotted €1.3 trillion in the fourth TLTRO III operation, close to what the ECB's Schnabel had suggested. This is a significant boost to bank funding, provided at a negative cost, which can be used to support lending and the recovery.

Boost to bank funding: Euro area banks asked for €1.3 trillion of long-term funding via TLTROs in the first full round of operations following the significant easing of conditions announced in March: the TLTROs now provide three-year money at -1%, i.e., 50bp below the depo rate, if banks beat the lending benchmark. Compared to the current funding that is maturing around this time – which we estimate at ~€0.76 trillion, comprised of early repayment notifications, one maturing TLTRO II operation and the maturing LTRO bridge operations – today's take-up should correspond to a net increase in three-year funding to the financial system of roughly €550 billion.

Solid policy response to support recovery: The ECB's monetary response, providing ample liquidity through the sweetened TLTRO and tackling market stress with the flexible PEPP, has been effective, we think. We don't expect much more from the central bank this year – but continue to expect another boost to PEPP in 2021. Meanwhile, the recovery fund – which we expect to be agreed during the German EU presidency starting in 2H – should also provide robust, targeted support to the most affected regions. Taken together, Europe's response looks more coordinated and timely than during the GFC, making us more confident about a synchronised recovery, avoiding a southern slump. While contraction this year should be deep, we expect solid growth in 2021, with GDP back to pre-COVID-19 levels at the start of 2022.

Morgan Stanley




  

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We differ from consensus in three key areas:

• We expect more fiscal stimulus even though it’s an election year. We continue to get pushback on our view that Congress will deliver follow-up stimulus to the recent CARES Act this summer. Some believe it is in the Democrats’ interest to deny Republicans the electoral benefit of a strong economy. We disagree. First, there’s only weak evidence that a strong economy guarantees reelection of the incumbent. Second, government assistance in times of crisis is core to the Democrats’ policy brand. Third, though fiscal expansion is rare in a divided government, it is common in reaction to a recession. While growth has turned positive, high unemployment is likely influencing the political calculus. Hence, we think the parties’ areas of agreement could add up to a US$1 trillion package.

• A Democratic win doesn’t have to be ‘risk off’. Investors responding to our election survey seem most concerned with a situation where Democrats take back both the Senate and the White House, clearing a path for Biden’s proposals of more than US$3 trillion in new taxes and tighter regulation. However, we think that fails to consider what is practically achievable. First, enacting these proposals would likely require the end of the filibuster – a strong possibility, but a major assumption. Second, Democrats likely have much more scope to spend than to raise taxes. In a sweep, Senate control will come via key wins by moderates, who are less likely to support an array of tax hikes. However, limited tax increases may not keep Democrats from their spending ambitions. Our AlphaWise Battleground States survey shows that Democratic voters are keen on healthcare spending, with moderate-to-liberal voters overwhelmingly supporting the effort even if it means expanding the deficit. Hence, investors may be too focused on the tax side of the equation, overlooking the support for aggregate economic demand from fiscal expansion.

• Don’t overreact to China tensions. We’ve recently heard investor concerns that the current US administration will re-escalate tariffs to boost its election prospects. We’re more inclined to see the election as a reason why the US will not take this path. Our survey shows that voters are skeptical about China’s role in the global arena, but more concerned about the domestic economy. Since polls suggest that, on net, voters favor President Trump on the economy, the administration likely views a V-shaped recovery as essential to reelection. Hence, heightened rhetoric and fresh non-tariff actions may be in the cards, but we think that tensions will likely stop short of tariff re-escalation.

Morgan Stanley

  

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• In all, adding $16tr of additional debt this year would raise the total debt in the world, private and government debt, to a new record high $200tr by the end of this year. Factoring in a decline to GDP by 5% this year, would raise the total debt to GDP ratio for the world as a whole by around 35 percentage points, from 243% at the end of 2019 to 278% by the end of this year. This 35% of GDP increase in global indebtedness is even bigger than the 20% of GDP increase seen in the year after the Lehman crisis.

• There are three main implications from the big increase in global indebtedness. First, the private sector would likely be inclined to save more in the future, sustaining the persistently high savings rates seen in the decade after the Lehman crisis. In turn, persistently high private sector savings rates would keep economic growth and inflation low and make it even more difficult for debt levels to decline vs. incomes in the future. Second, very accommodative central bank policy policies and low interest rates are likely to continue for a very long time to make it possible for both the government sector and the private sector to sustain their much higher debt levels.

JPMorgan

  

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>• In all, adding $16tr of additional debt this year would
>raise the total debt in the world, private and government
>debt, to a new record high $200tr by the end of this year.
>Factoring in a decline to GDP by 5% this year, would raise the
>total debt to GDP ratio for the world as a whole by around 35
>percentage points, from 243% at the end of 2019 to 278% by the
>end of this year. This 35% of GDP increase in global
>indebtedness is even bigger than the 20% of GDP increase seen
>in the year after the Lehman crisis.
>
>• There are three main implications from the big increase in
>global indebtedness. First, the private sector would likely be
>inclined to save more in the future, sustaining the
>persistently high savings rates seen in the decade after the
>Lehman crisis. In turn, persistently high private sector
>savings rates would keep economic growth and inflation low and
>make it even more difficult for debt levels to decline vs.
>incomes in the future. Second, very accommodative central bank
>policy policies and low interest rates are likely to continue
>for a very long time to make it possible for both the
>government sector and the private sector to sustain their much
>higher debt levels.
>
>JPMorgan

Na das wären dann ca. schlappe 20.000€ pro lebender Person dieser Welt Schuldenanteil. Baby, Kind, Erwachsener, Pensionist. Wo auch immer, Grönland, NYC, Atacama-Wüste, Patagonien.

Wenn ich meinen weltweiten Schuldenanteil mit meinem Einkommensverhältnis aliquotieren würde, wäre ich wohl vielfacher Millionär, wenn vielleicht auch in der falschen Richtung. Aber im Volumen ein Wirkmillionär eben.

Ich wusste garnicht Bescheid bisher über meine finanziell wirksame Potenz, alle Achtung vor mir! Ich werde mir in meinem Lieblingslokal ständig meinen Lieblingstisch freihalten lassen. Zumindest zu meinen bevorzugten Speisezeiten, die ich ja vermutlich mit allen anderen vielfachen Wirkmillionären dieser Welt aufteilen werde müssen.

Ein bisschen tun mir natürlich die armen Gläubiger leid. Wenn wir im Durchschnitt mit so einem Schuldenberg ganz gut leben können, dann gibt es wahrscheinlich ein paar arme Schweine, die das alles bezahlt haben und nun auf möglicherweise nicht leicht eintreibbaren Ansprüchen sitzenbleiben werden. Und auf dieser Welt könnten diese ganz leicht entmachtet, entrechtet und vielleicht sogar abgeschafft werden. Per Dekret, weil das ein geeignetes Mittel ist, solche Sachen zu regeln.

Ich glaube, der liebe Gott kann bei uns noch was lernen an planwirtschaftlicher Ressourcenhandhabung, Er wird schon gewusst haben, mit welchen Hintergedanken er uns geschaffen hat.

P.S. Die selbstauferlegte Einschränkung durch Naturkonstanten und Erhaltungssätze hat ihn eh schon lange genervt, denke ich. Wenn ich meinen intuitiven Gottesanteil befrage, der mir kreative Buchhaltung als unausgeschöpftes Entwicklungspotential anbietet, erkenne ich sinngebende Resonanz!

  

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With US election only a few months away, one scenario that has been of growing interest among investors is a potential Democratic sweep setting the stage for a shift in the legislative agenda. The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive. First, it remains to be seen how much of Biden’s campaign agenda is implemented if he is elected and what the make-up of his cabinet will look like. History suggests that challengers to an incumbent typically campaign at an extreme only to converge to the center post-election. Secondly, Biden’s proposed policy priorities were introduced in a healthy economy during the Primaries/pre-COVID-19. Given the current economic weakness, business recovery and job growth are likely to be prioritized over policies that could dampen economic growth and perhaps even jeopardize the desired 2022 midterm election outcome. As such, the degree of corporate tax reversal may ultimately be lower than currently discussed (i.e. <28%). Other policy proposals including infrastructure spending, softening tariff rhetoric and higher wages should be net positive for S&P 500 earnings and largely offset the corporate tax headwind. Further, a more diplomatic approach to domestic / foreign policy will likely result in lower equity volatility and risk premia (e.g. VIX in the year before the trade war averaged ~11, and after the trade war started averaged ~16

JPMorgan

  

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Many investors did not participate in the equity rally. The argument against the rally is that given earnings forecasts impacted by COVID-19, equities are expensive relative to history (e.g., in P/E terms). What this argument is missing is that large pools of money invest not just within equities but across asset classes. Equities indeed appear expensive relative to their own history, but they are quite cheap relative to bonds.

JPMorgan

  

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Sharing another of Doug's recent missives, I agree with him that bank stocks are very attractive here and I own seven of them in my personal account:

It May Be Time for Bank Stocks to Trade Higher and Break Out of the Recent Trading Range

2Q2020 may have represented a peak build in loan loss provisions and a peak in relative underperformance of bank industry share pricesI share Warren Buffett's confidence in the banking space

Bank stocks have underperformed the broader market by nearly 3,500 basis points in 2020 as credit costs associated with the COVID-19 shutdowns have weighed on the group.

I have argued that the industry's capital bases (and substantial liquidity from, among other things, remarkable year-over-year deposit growth), coupled with continuing core earnings growth, are exceptionally strong and adequate to digest and absorb continued, but moderating, credit losses.

I continue to believe in this case, and so does The Oracle of Omaha, who recently added to his already-large Bank of America (BAC) holdings.

For several months I have suggested that while the current rate and credit pressures and uncertainties would weigh on bank stocks, the intermediate-term outlook was quite strong.

However, with the differential in performance (mentioned above) and with growing consensus of economic expectations, valuations have grown much more compelling over the near term and there is growing evidence that the worst of the credit experience may be behind the industry – following the large and conservative second quarter reserve builds.

Second quarter banking industry results underscored my view that non-interest (fee-based) income represents an increasing proportion of the sector's profits. So despite ever-lower interest rates and a flattening yield curve, the adverse impact on profitability is less than many believe.

Markets respond to rates of change and importantly, and in all likelihood (and based on recent bank disclosures), second quarter loan reserve builds may have represented cycle highs as most banks are getting closer to loan loss reserve adequacy.

Position: Long C (large), WFC (large), BAC (large), JPM (large)



  

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• Our global equity strategists believe that the current environment isn’t conducive to any sustained rebound in Value, beyond a few days’ worth of a bounce. The last time a meaningful Value rally occurred was in 2016-17, and it was supported by 1) doubling of US bond yields, 2) Broad USD weakness, 3) surge in Chinese M1, 4) no trade uncertainty at the time, but instead upcoming tax cuts. The current setup is quite different, in their view. Bond yields are stuck in a range and likely to stay lower for longer. USD might not weaken much more given the already elevated short positions in place. Notably, EM FX is not strengthening this time around. China M1 is heavily undershooting the acceleration in M1 seen in other regions, and trade/tax uncertainty is elevated. For these reasons, among other, our strategists believe that market leadership will remain Growth and Defensives driven this year, and build on an already strong +20% outperformance. Tech, Healthcare, Utilities and Staples earnings delivered better growth compared to the broader market during the Q2 reporting season, providing further support to our strategists OW stance on these sectors. Within Defensives, they remain relatively more cautious on Real Estate and Telecoms. Within Cyclicals, they are cautious on Financials, Energy and most Consumer Cyclical plays such as Autos, Airlines, Leisure, Retail etc, but have a relatively more positive view on Mining, Construction Materials and parts of Capital Goods. These are likely to benefit from an increasing infrastructure spending theme.

JPMorgan

  

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• The Q2 reporting season is getting to its final stages, with nearly 90% of companies having reported in the US, 84% in Europe, and 91% in Japan. Earnings delivery has been much stronger than initial consensus expectations, with EPS surprises at +20% and +23% in the US and Europe, respectively. Earnings revisions are improving in all regions, with US in the outright positive territory. However, the EPS revisions momentum could stall from here as the 2H '20 hurdle rate is much higher than it was in Q2, while at the same time the activity momentum is unlikely to get better. Despite the positive surprise, yoy earnings growth is very weak, at 33% y/y in the US and -26% y/y in Europe. At a sector level, only Healthcare, Utilities and Tech are printing positive earnings growth. In Europe, Healthcare and Tech are the only sectors reporting positive EPS growth. A key feature of this season’s results is that a large proportion of companies have revised their guidance higher. This is a considerable improvement from Q1, where a record number of companies withdrew their profit outlook for the year, on the back of COVID-19 driven uncertainty

JPMorgan

  

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Das war diese Woche besonders auffällig.
Der Nasdaq 100 hat 3,5% zugelegt, aber fast 50% (!) der Aktien aus dem Index haben diese Woche mit einem Minus beendet.

MARKETS
The S&P 500′s return to a record doesn’t tell the full story with 60% of stocks still with losses
PUBLISHED SAT, AUG 22 20207:32 AM EDT
S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high and wiped out losses from the coronavirus sell-off, a CNBC analysis shows that the majority of stocks have yet to climb back to their prior levels.
Between the prior market high on Feb. 19 and new high on Aug. 18, 38% of stocks in the index made gains while the remaining 62% posted losses.
Performance varied by sector, with more than 50% of stocks in the consumer staples, health care, and information technology sectors showing gains. That figure is less than 10% for energy and utilities stocks.
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, wiping out losses from the coronavirus-induced sell-off and returning the market to pre-pandemic levels.

But while the index is right back where it started before the virus sent the market plunging, a CNBC analysis shows that the majority of stocks have yet to climb back to their prior levels. While the overall market crashed and then reached new heights between its previous high on Feb. 19 and new high on Aug. 18, only 38% of stocks in the index made gains over that time period. A majority, the remaining 62%, were negative.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/22/coronavirus-most-stocks-havent-recovered-despite-sp-500-r ecord.html

  

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• The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction.

• But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.

• This is not only because the significant reduction in the short base that we saw on US individual stocks in July and August is less likely to be repeated given the much lower starting point currently,

• But also because of the event risks we see into September/October (i.e. September FOMC meeting, US election)

JPMorgan

  

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>• The significant reduction in previously extreme long
>positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the
>equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened
>after the June 11th correction.
>
>• But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August
>is less likely over the next two months.
>
>• This is not only because the significant reduction in the
>short base that we saw on US individual stocks in July and
>August is less likely to be repeated given the much lower
>starting point currently,
>
>• But also because of the event risks we see into
>September/October (i.e. September FOMC meeting, US election)
>
>JPMorgan

Ist wohl ähnlich, wie der heurige Run bei Edelmetallen am 11.08. binnen 24h einen gehörigen Schuss vor den Bug erhalten hat (#meToo). Die Warnung, dass jede Richtung zwei mögliche Fortsetzungen hat, sitzt da tief in den Knochen. Das dauert dann ein bisschen, bis die Wunden geleckt und die Emotionalkörper wieder akklimatisiert sind. Da hat es sicher ein paar Nachwuchsspieler finanziell vom Feld gepfiffen.

  

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First increase in individual equities’ short base since March

• The recent rise in the short base at individual stock level for the first time since last March is a worrying development as it points to de-risking by institutional equity investors. And there is room for further increases in the short base given how low it still is for US stocks.
That said, we note that while the above points to near term risks of a retreat in equities, as we have noted previously we see plenty of upside in equities in the medium-to-longer term given still low overall equity positioning.

JPMorgan

  

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Experten plädieren für europäische Aktien

Obwohl die Goldlöckchen-Kombination aus verbessertem Wachstum und sinkenden realen Anleiherenditen endet: Die Erholungsrallye an den europäischen Märkten dürfte nicht aufzuhalten sein. Zu dieser Ansicht gelangte die Bank of America. Grund sei, dass die Auswirkungen steigender realer Anleiherenditen durch den Zuwachs beim Einkaufsmanagerindex (PMI) mehr als ausgeglichen würden. Die Bankstrategen sehen bis November immer noch 15 Prozent Aufwärtspotenzial für den Euro Stoxx 600 und eine weitere Outperformance von zehn Prozent für zyklische Aktien gegenüber defensiven Anlagen.

https://www.diepresse.com/5870083/experten-pladieren-fur-europaische-aktien

  

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>Experten plädieren für europäische Aktien
>
>Obwohl die Goldlöckchen-Kombination aus verbessertem Wachstum
>und sinkenden realen Anleiherenditen endet: Die
>Erholungsrallye an den europäischen Märkten dürfte nicht
>aufzuhalten sein. Zu dieser Ansicht gelangte die Bank of
>America. Grund sei, dass die Auswirkungen steigender realer
>Anleiherenditen durch den Zuwachs beim Einkaufsmanagerindex
>(PMI) mehr als ausgeglichen würden. Die Bankstrategen sehen
>bis November immer noch 15 Prozent Aufwärtspotenzial für den
>Euro Stoxx 600 und eine weitere Outperformance von zehn
>Prozent für zyklische Aktien gegenüber defensiven Anlagen.
>
>https://www.diepresse.com/5870083/experten-pladieren-fur-europaische-aktien

Eine nachvollziehbare Empfehlung. Das Märztief ist jetzt genau ein halbes Jahr her.
Der S&P500 ist seither ca. +50% gelaufen, der EURO STOXX 50 ca. +40%, so als Orientierung.
Bei global vergleichbarer Wetterlage ist also bei uns mehr Luft nach oben.

P.S. Der EURO STOXX 600 sogar nur erbärmliche +28%

  

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Gastkommentar. Die klassischen Bewertungsmethoden von Aktien sind in der derzeitigen Lage der Covid-19-Pandemie nahezu wertlos ...

Quelle: https://www.trend.at/geld/ken-fisher-vergessen-sie-kgv-11646603

-------------

Ken Fisher: Angst ist das größte Risiko

Quelle: https://www.trend.at/geld/ken-fisher-angst-risiko-11366993

  

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• Global equity markets continued to retreat last week, weighed down by rising cases in Europe, spike in hospitalizations and deaths in Spain, weaker PMIs, US political uncertainty and new lockdown rules in UK and France. Europe lead on the downside. Value kept falling vs Momentum. Sectorally, Energy and Financials led, while Tech, Staples and Utilities outperformed.
• Our Global Equity Strategists updated on EPS revisions, which add to a range of technical and fundamental concerns for the near-term performance of equity markets. Relative earnings momentum has been a key driver for relative sector and stock performances this year. In the majority of sectors, 70-100% of stock outperformers displayed better EPS momentum than their sector. This challenges the widespread view that non-fundamental factors were somehow key in driving stock/sector selection in 2020. Our strategists believe that one should not extrapolate the up-move in earnings seen in the recent months, and that the improvement is likely to stall. A gap has opened up between US EPS revisions and PMIs, where the level of activity is too weak to sustain the improvement. In order for EPS revisions not to falter, PMIs, oil, consumer confidence and others need to rally hard from here. Hurdle rate is also a challenge, with consensus expectations for EPS growth to accelerate very strongly in 2021, at 30% for broader market in US/Europe and 50%+ for certain Value and Cyclical sectors. The high hurdle rate could mean that EPS revisions are not capable of spending much time in positive territory, if at all.

JPMorgan

  

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• We continue to find that retail-driven small option traders, which had likely propagated the tech rally in August, played only a modest role in September’s equity market correction.
• Moreover, the step increase in US retail equity trading activity in Q2 appears to mostly reflect short-term trading rather than a sustained increase in the equity ownership by US retail investors, which raises questions about the narrative that retail investors have played a significant role in driving the broader market rally since March.


JPMorgan

  

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Only 10 stocks divide the US and Europe

September saw the recent stock rally come to an end, but overall Q3 followed Q2 in seeing a strong bounce-back in equities.

In Q3 we’ve marvelled at how the S&P 500 (+8.9% in Q3) has again outstripped the European Stoxx 600 (+0.7%), extending a trend that has been there for the best part of a decade.

However on closer inspection the S&P “490” – an index where we’ve stripped out the 10 mega-cap growth stocks has performed much more in-line with Europe over the last 6 months, especially if you adjust for the EUR/USD move and has only had a relatively small advantage over the Stoxx 600 since the end of 2014.

So we all know how much having a large growing tech sector has benefited the US equity market massively but it’s fascinating to see that excluding just 10 of these names in the S&P 500 means that US equity performance has been more in line with Europe’s over recent years.

Deutsche Bank

  

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Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 26 stood at 837,000, the US Department of Labor stated in a release on Thursday. The figure was lower by 36,000 compared to the previous week's revised level.

The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week's revised total. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.1% for the week ending September 19, 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous week. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for the same week was reported at 11,767,000, a decrease of 980,000 from the previous week's revised level.

  

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Business Insider, Ben Winck, Sept 26,2020

Tech stocks' time in the spotlight is over, and investors should begin shifts to value stocks and cyclical sectors, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said in a recent note.
The S&P 500's brief Thursday correction marks "an opportunity to 'broaden your bets'" before valuations rebound, Paulsen said.
Money supply growth surged in recent months on the back of Federal Reserve easing and the CARES Act.
That trend has preceded economic expansions by 12 months in all eight recessions since 1960, according to the strategist.
The cyclical sectors that avoided bankruptcy during coronavirus lockdowns "may currently be positioned with the greatest upside profit leverage," Paulsen said.
Still, investors should hold on to some growth positions as their fundamentals remain healthy, he added.
The S&P 500's brief correction opened the door for a shift to neglected corners of the market, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said in a recent note.
The benchmark index fell enough Thursday morning to temporarily sit 10% lower from its early September record. The short-lived correction was made possible by tech-led declines staged over the month. After the high-flying mega-caps pulled major indexes out of their coronavirus-induced losses, investors balked at their lofty valuations and kicked off a wave of profit-taking.
Paulsen now expects cyclical sectors and value names to fuel the market's next upswing. The lagging groups "seem poised to take a more significant leadership role in this bull market," he wrote in a note to clients. The S&P 500's most recent tumble "may represent an opportunity to 'broaden your bets,'" he added
Value and cyclical stocks typically outperform once an economic expansion finds its footing. The market hasn't yet flashed that signal, as tech giants continue to anchor major indexes. Yet potent stimulus efforts and economic data suggest the rotation away from growth names will arrive soon.
Monetary and fiscal policies have a perfect record of ending the US's eight previous recessions within 12 months of their implementation, Paulsen said. Between the Federal Reserve's rapid easing measures and March's CARES Act, annual money supply growth in 2020 is set to repeat the trend and usher in a strong period of economic growth.
"Given its perfect record of lifting the US economy into a new expansion, and, considering the outsized degree of accommodation being provided today, it seems like a good bet to expect an economic recovery in 2021," Paulsen said.
Though the upcoming recovery will extend the aforementioned record, it's also likely to surpass growth seen in recent history. Analyst estimates for the next four quarters suggest the firms slammed the hardest by the pandemic will surge on the biggest GDP bump of the post-war period, according to Paulsen.
The cyclical companies that avoided bankruptcy during the coronavirus recession "may currently be positioned with the greatest upside profit leverage," he said.
Consequently, defensive stocks will likely underperform as investors take on more risk and pivot to names rebounding from the coronavirus recession, Paulsen added. Those keeping positions in tech giants will fall significantly behind those who moved cash into value and cyclical bets.
"Their steady-Eddy character is too bond-like during an economic boom," Paulsen said.
Investors shouldn't turn their backs on tech stocks entirely, the strategist noted. Popular members of the group still boast healthy fundamentals, and the coronavirus accelerated several trends set to lift the sector. Market participants should instead diversify holdings with overweight positions in small caps, value stocks, cyclical sectors, and international stocks to best profit from the upcoming expansion period, Paulsen said.

  

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• Global equity markets spent another week in a consolidation mode, as delay in stimulus package and newsflow on President Trump testing positive for COVID-19 weighed returns. Value continued to underperform Growth. Tech was the best performing sector while Energy the worst. Oil price fell and bond yields stayed flat.

• Our Global Equity strategists argued at the start of September that equities are facing a more mixed near term risk-reward given stretched technicals, stalling in fundamentals and the upcoming event risk. The technical picture is starting to improve, but markets still need to negotiate the election risk.


JPMorgan

  

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A blue wave of Democrats come November may be good for economy: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs thinks a blue wave of Democrats — meaning full control of government via the presidency (Joe Biden), Senate and House — come November could be good for the U.S. economy.

“All else equal, such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts. The reason is that it would sharply raise the probability of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion shortly after the presidential inauguration on January 20, followed by longer-term spending increases on infrastructure, climate, health care and education that would at least match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earners,” wrote Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius in a new note to clients on Monday.

Hatzius estimates such a fiscal stimulus package could bump up growth by two to three percentage points in 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-blue-wave-of-democrats-come-november-may-be-good-for-eco nomy-goldman-sachs-181544426.html

  

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 For two candidates (Trump v Biden) who seem diametrically opposed on so many fundamental issues, US risk measures like the S&P are showing remarkably little differentiation between the two candidates!

 However, from a global risk perspective, Biden is the much more risk friendly candidate given: i) international credentials for multilateralism and predictability; ii) a far less disruptive trade policy; iii) less oil market support from both demand and supply angles; iv) likely larger US fiscal and C/A deficits that historically adds to global dollar liquidity; and v) contributes to a weaker USD.

 The COVID outlook needs to be thought of in conjunction with the election, not separately as it usually is.

 A vaccine would drive the reversal of some the central tenets behind the pandemic trade. A bellwether asset like gold is bound to be imperilled by any perception that Central Bank balance sheets are not on a never ending expansion, nor are yields of the major economies stuck near zero as far as the eye can see.

 We are already seeing some stirrings of this in a bond market lifting off from record low vol. This is the beginning of an understanding, that a combination of a large Biden fiscal stimulus quickly followed by more positive news on the virus in 2021 is the kind of scenario that should prompt a sharp reversal of trades predicated on rates low forever. The financial landscape in H1 2021 could look very different from 2020.

  

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Global Asset Allocation
Increasing equity OW

We raise our equity allocation to 8%, from 6%, to take advantage of the better entry point that the September correction has created. We offset this by reducing our fixed income allocation by two percentage points, split equally between government and corporate bonds. Within fixed income, we favor curve steepeners in the US to position for supply pressures and further fiscal stimulus, putting pressure on the long-end, selective longs in EM local bonds in countries with positive real yields, and OWs in periphery vs core bonds in the Euro area.

JPMorgan

  

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The impact from a potential US capital gains tax rate increase

• It is perhaps too early to worry about a potential capital gains tax rate increase in the US.
• Assuming a Democratic sweep and a likely effective date of the new higher capital gains tax rate of 1 January 2022, we are likely to see some downward pressure in equity markets in Q4 2021, i.e., in a year’s time.
• But once the new capital gains tax rate kicks in, the equity market is likely to resume its upward trajectory in a strong manner as it did previously in the first half of 1987 and 2013.
• Longer term, we see little impact from a prospective capital gains tax rate increase on risk taking and investors’ attitude toward equities as an asset class, given the current low yield and high equity risk premium environment.


JPMorgan

  

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The biggest polling shock in history?

The largest error was in 1948 when President Truman won by 5% in spite of being behind by 4.4% in the final polls. However, Truman’s challenger in New York Governor Dewey saw his lead fall from 17 points in late September to 9 points in mid-October before settling at ‘only’ 5 points just before the election.

The last two big misses were a 6.4 point overstatement of Clinton’s eventual 5.6 point win in 1992 and a 6.4 point understatement of Reagan’s 9.4 point win in 1980. These receive less attention, however, since the error didn’t change the result that the polls were already implying.

A Truman style error in the polls may give Mr Trump a chance given the electoral college system, but the reality is that - unless the polls narrow into election day - a Trump victory would be the biggest error in our modern era of mass polling.

  

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Die mit Abstand verlässlichste Prognose-Institution, Nate Silvers 538, sieht die Chancen 13:87 für Trump.

Ein Trump-Sieg ist also unwahrscheinlich, aber nicht unmöglich. In einem von 7 oder 8 Fällen gewinnt Trump.

Vgl. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

  

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>
>>Silvers 538, sieht die Chancen 13:87 für Trump.
>
>Wohl ein Tippfehler...

Ich habe es als Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretiert, also 13/87 = 15%
Ergo eine recht geringe Chance, aber nicht Null.

War wohl eine Fehlinterpretation der Zahl. Gemeint war einfach 13% Wahrscheinlichkeit, also noch etwas weniger.

  

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• Our Global Equity strategists have argued in recent weeks that sector/style/regional rotation is coming, having been consistently OW Tech/US/China vs Value/Banks/Energy/SX5E/EM ex Asia during the current recovery. US elections could result in a more reflationary backdrop. With respect to the Q3 results season, our strategists highlight that the consensus EPS growth expectations appear quite subdued, especially when contrasted to the significant PMI rebound seen in Q3 vs Q2, and hence the bar for positive surprises is quite low. That said, they do not believe that beats would translate into earnings upgrades for the time being, as the current levels of PMIs are not strong enough. One needs PMIs north of 54-55 for EPS revisions to break into positive territory. Indeed, EPS revisions in Eurozone have faltered once again, down in each of the past 4 weeks. This is unlikely to change in the near term, but M1 trends – a leading indicator for PMIs – suggest that PMIs could potentially start to accelerate again in 1H21.

JPMorgan

  

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• Global Equity markets weakened further this week, weighed down by rising new cases/increased restrictions, narrowing Trump-Biden polls and some earnings disappointments.
• Our US strategists maintain their probability weighted S&P 500 price target of 3,600 for year-end. They see an ‘orderly’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900) and also view gridlock outcomes as a net positive. A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term as it would likely be accompanied by some immediate positive catalysts but also negative. They aligned their election baskets with the latest Biden and Trump policy proposals. Energy, Financials and Healthcare could likely see the most outsized moves.

JPMorgan

  

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Auffällig, dass außerbörslich die Märkte dieses Wochenende alle 1% im Minus sind. Denn gewöhnlich tut sich da ja recht wenig.
Die Coronastroy kann es ja nicht sein, bzw. wäre für mich nicht nachvollziehbar.

  

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>Auffällig, dass außerbörslich die Märkte dieses Wochenende
>alle 1% im Minus sind. Denn gewöhnlich tut sich da ja recht
>wenig.

Wo siehst du? L&S nicht.

  

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>>>Auffällig, dass außerbörslich die Märkte dieses
>>Wochenende
>>>alle 1% im Minus sind. Denn gewöhnlich tut sich da ja
>>recht
>>>wenig.
>>
>>Wo siehst du? L&S nicht.
>
>https://www.ig.com/at/indizes/maerkte-indizes/weekend-germany-30


11528 Mitte. L&S glaubt 11572.

  

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>>>>Auffällig, dass außerbörslich die Märkte dieses
>>>Wochenende
>>>>alle 1% im Minus sind. Denn gewöhnlich tut sich da
>ja
>>>recht
>>>>wenig.
>>>
>>>Wo siehst du? L&S nicht.
>>
>>https://www.ig.com/at/indizes/maerkte-indizes/weekend-germany-30
>
>
>11528 Mitte. L&S glaubt 11572.

Denke wird sich nach 17 Uhr etwas angleichen, sprich L&S wird nach unten gehen.

  

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>>https://www.ig.com/at/indizes/maerkte-indizes/weekend-germany-30
>
>11528 Mitte. L&S glaubt 11572.

Xetra Endstand war 11556,48. Daher weniger als -30 Punkte.
War der DAX vielleicht nachbörslich deutlich höher (so wie der ATX laut meinem nachbörslich stark gefallenen Short KO-Schein) und erscheint dadurch jetzt so deutlich negativ?

  

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>>>https://www.ig.com/at/indizes/maerkte-indizes/weekend-germany-30
>>
>>11528 Mitte. L&S glaubt 11572.
>
>Xetra Endstand war 11556,48. Daher weniger als -30 Punkte.
>War der DAX vielleicht nachbörslich deutlich höher (so wie der
>ATX laut meinem nachbörslich stark gefallenen Short KO-Schein)
>und erscheint dadurch jetzt so deutlich negativ?

Ja bei Tradegate und Eurex ca. 11620

  

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>>>>https://www.ig.com/at/indizes/maerkte-indizes/weekend-germany-30
>>>
>>>11528 Mitte. L&S glaubt 11572.
>>
>>Xetra Endstand war 11556,48. Daher weniger als -30
>Punkte.
>>War der DAX vielleicht nachbörslich deutlich höher (so wie
>der
>>ATX laut meinem nachbörslich stark gefallenen Short
>KO-Schein)ow und S&P
>>und erscheint dadurch jetzt so deutlich negativ?
>
>Ja bei Tradegate und Eurex ca. 11620


Ja da haben sie analog Dow und S&P höher quotiert.

  

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>• Global Equity markets weakened further this week, weighed
>down by rising new cases/increased restrictions, narrowing
>Trump-Biden polls and some earnings disappointments.
>• Our US strategists maintain their probability weighted
>S&P 500 price target of 3,600 for year-end. They see an
>‘orderly’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for
>equities (upside to ~3,900) and also view gridlock outcomes as
>a net positive. A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario is expected to be
>mostly neutral in the short term as it would likely be
>accompanied by some immediate positive catalysts but also
>negative. They aligned their election baskets with the latest
>Biden and Trump policy proposals. Energy, Financials and
>Healthcare could likely see the most outsized moves.
>
>JPMorgan

Bei kleineren Schwankungen (<1%) sind WE-Quotierungen für A&F, weil sie kein Volumen repräsentieren. Klar, Futures werden dauernd quotiert, aber nicht unbedingt mit Signifikanz.
Wenn es eine Nachrichtenlage gibt und eine begleitetende außerbörsliche Bewegung, von mir aus. Aber meistens pendeln sich die Schlusskurse und die Eröffnungskurse der Haupthandelszeiten aufeinander ein.
Man sehe einfach selber in zurückblickenden Kurven nach. Gaps sind möglich, aber nicht die Regel.

  

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• Real money managers appear to have been a bigger contributor to the October correction relative to the September one.
• In contrast, equity-focused hedge funds appear to have played little role in this month’s correction relative to the September one.
• Post US election the equity bull market should resume. We continue to see around 50% upside over the medium to longer term based on our most holistic metric of equity positioning metrics, which links the equity upside to debt and liquidity creation.
• Although it has had a negative impact in the short term, the re-emergence of lockdowns and resultant growth weakness could bolster the above equity upside over the medium to longer term via inducing more QE and thus more liquidity creation.

JPMorgan

  

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>• Real money managers appear to have been a bigger
>contributor to the October correction relative to the
>September one.
>• In contrast, equity-focused hedge funds appear to have
>played little role in this month’s correction relative to the
>September one.
>• Post US election the equity bull market should resume. We
>continue to see around 50% upside over the medium to longer
>term based on our most holistic metric of equity positioning
>metrics, which links the equity upside to debt and liquidity
>creation.
>• Although it has had a negative impact in the short term, the
>re-emergence of lockdowns and resultant growth weakness could
>bolster the above equity upside over the medium to longer term
>via inducing more QE and thus more liquidity creation.
>
>JPMorgan

Okay, habe aber die Vermutung, dass dies die Erwartungshaltung etlicher Marktteilnehmer ist.

  

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The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine. We expected an imminent vaccine outcome (see report) and a rotation out of COVID-19 beneficiaries / Momentum and into Epicenter / Value stocks.

We view a confirmed Biden victory with a likely legislative gridlock as a goldilocks outcome for equities, a “market nirvana” scenario. With an even balance of power in the legislature, major tax increases and regulatory changes will be difficult to pass, while at least some easing of the global trade war should be expected. Global central bank policy remains very supportive (rates to remain at zero with ongoing QE). The prospect for another round of fiscal stimulus has improved as well, though scope and size should be narrower. Corporate earnings and labor market recovery (i.e. October jobs) continue to come in ahead of expectations. This recovery process should remain underpinned by easing of COVID-19 restrictions. USD continues to normalize, acting as an earnings tailwind for US multinationals.

S&P500 cash balance is almost back to record highs, with potential for increasing buyback and M&A activity in 2021. Equity positioning remains at below-average levels with ample room for mechanical re-leveraging as volatility levels subside.

Given the above, we see the S&P 500 surpassing our price target of 3,600 before year-end and reaching 4,000 by early next year, with a good potential for the market to move even higher (~4,500) by the end of next year.

JPMorgan

  

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>The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for
>sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated
>risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election
>uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up,
>especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine.
>We expected an imminent vaccine outcome (see report) and a
>rotation out of COVID-19 beneficiaries / Momentum and into
>Epicenter / Value stocks.
>
> We view a confirmed Biden victory with a likely legislative
>gridlock as a goldilocks outcome for equities, a “market
>nirvana” scenario. With an even balance of power in the
>legislature, major tax increases and regulatory changes will
>be difficult to pass, while at least some easing of the global
>trade war should be expected. Global central bank policy
>remains very supportive (rates to remain at zero with ongoing
>QE). The prospect for another round of fiscal stimulus has
>improved as well, though scope and size should be narrower.
>Corporate earnings and labor market recovery (i.e. October
>jobs) continue to come in ahead of expectations. This recovery
>process should remain underpinned by easing of COVID-19
>restrictions. USD continues to normalize, acting as an
>earnings tailwind for US multinationals.
>
>S&P500 cash balance is almost back to record highs, with
>potential for increasing buyback and M&A activity in 2021.
>Equity positioning remains at below-average levels with ample
>room for mechanical re-leveraging as volatility levels
>subside.
>
>Given the above, we see the S&P 500 surpassing our price
>target of 3,600 before year-end and reaching 4,000 by early
>next year, with a good potential for the market to move even
>higher (~4,500) by the end of next year.
>
>JPMorgan

Ja, aber man muss schon dazu ergänzen, dass der Markt einiges davon vorweggenommen hat, denn in den Staaten befinden wir uns ja nahezu auf Rekordniveau. Auch die Bewertungen reflektieren diese Erwartungshaltung, im Techbereich vollständig, und in den anderen Bereichen zumindest tlw. Zusätzlich, dass jetzt alles gut wird und politischer Frieden eingekehrt, ist wohl mehr Hoffnung als Realität.

  

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Add risk on vaccine arrival

Major market risks have diminished in the past couple of weeks, sparking a rally in risky assets but clearing the path for significant further gains. This week’s positive vaccine news is a game-changer in our view, as it allows the market to look through the recent surge in COVID-19 cases to the impending end of the pandemic and broader reopening of the economy. Additionally, corporates delivered strong beats on Q3 earnings, and the US election outcome likely gives markets the best of both worlds. A likely GOP senate majority and gains in the House should ensure that Trump’s pro-business policies stay intact, and Biden winning the Presidency will likely lead to an easing of the trade war and less market volatility, which could drive inflows to risk assets. We expect equities to continue to rally

JPMorgan

  

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Don't underestimate Europe. Europe is not a low-yielder! The equity market has one of the highest dividend yields in the world - comparative to Emerging Markets. It is also very geared to cyclicals. Don't underestimate the potential for equity inflows, and we have seen a sharp rise in foreign buying in recent days. Don't miss Germany's capacity to act as a locomotive either: it is geared to the global cycle and will be able to rebound incredibly quickly once COVID is under control. Not only has the labor market been fully protected, but so have firms via revenue-replacement schemes. Eastern Europe is a huge beneficiary of the Recovery Fund too. While all the focus is on the periphery, it is smaller European countries that will be the true winners: CE3, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Croatia will all receive fiscal transfers for investments worth 10-15% of GDP over the next three years. That is triple the size of the Marshall Plan. Eastern and Southern Europe can be a big source of upside surprise next year.

Deutsche Bank

  

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• Global equity markets were up strongly earlier in the week, driven by positive vaccine news flow and US elections event risk moving behind us, but faded part of their gains later on. Value vs Momentum still ended dramatically higher at +9.9% in the US and +14.2% in Europe. Banks and Insurance outperformed, while Healthcare and Tech lagged.
• Our Global equity strategists reiterated their Value upgrade and the view that the risk-reward for stocks has improved. The US election result is one of the better outcomes as a Biden victory, but without the Senate, suggests that market-negative policies are unlikely to be executed while trade uncertainty is still likely to come down. Finally, the next round of stimulus should be forthcoming, as both Republicans and Democrats will want to be seen as supportive of the recovery. Our strategists believe that the markets are primed for rotation. They have executed their Value vs Growth upgrade two weeks ago, by buying Banks and Insurance, and taking profits on their long standing Tech OW. Scope for mean reversion is seen also regionally. The team now advises OW EM vs DM, and within EM mean reversion between China and EM ex Asia.

JPMorgan

  

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Can the Rally Continue?

Attention on the US election outcomes and President-elect Biden’s policy priorities has been subsumed in part by the trajectory of COVID-19, with the market weighing the current rise in a second wave of infections against the longer-term outlook given the positive advances for vaccines. Our strategists are comfortable staying long risk as challenges to the US presidential election outcome are likely to be resolved by the December 14th Electoral College deadline to certify votes. The most likely outcome for the Senate remains Republican-controlled which means a smaller fiscal stimulus, but which also reduces the possibility that populist policies and tax increases will be enacted. The Value rotation for the S&P 500 should continue into 2021, even after the strong rally of the past few weeks.

JPMorgan

  

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• We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the near term from balanced mutual funds, a $7tr universe, having to sell around $160bn of equities globally to revert to their target 60:40 allocation either by the end of November or by the end of December at the latest.
• A continuation of the equity market rally into December is likely to give rise to additional $150bn of equity selling into the end of December by pension fund entities that tend to rebalance on a quarterly basis.

JPMorgan

  

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>• We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the near
>term from balanced mutual funds, a $7tr universe, having to
>sell around $160bn of equities globally to revert to their
>target 60:40 allocation either by the end of November or by
>the end of December at the latest.
>• A continuation of the equity market rally into December is
>likely to give rise to additional $150bn of equity selling
>into the end of December by pension fund entities that tend to
>rebalance on a quarterly basis.
>
>JPMorgan
>

Interessanter Aspekt, wie wohl viele Märkte ggü. dem Jahresanfang noch im Minus sind, bspw. Europa.

  

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>Interessanter Aspekt, wie wohl viele Märkte ggü. dem
>Jahresanfang noch im Minus sind, bspw. Europa.


Wird sich primär auf US beziehen, Dow, S&P und Nasdaq hatten Ende Oktober ein lokales Low. Da sind die Pensionsfonds auch viel größer.

  

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>• We see some vulnerability in equity markets in the near
>term from balanced mutual funds, a $7tr universe, having to
>sell around $160bn of equities globally to revert to their
>target 60:40 allocation either by the end of November or by
>the end of December at the latest.


Dazu passend:

The 60/40 Portfolio Is Muzzling Critics With Another Big Year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-22/the-60-40-portfolio-is-muzzling-critic s-with-another-big-year

  

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European equities look well positioned for 2021 as growth rebounds strongly and policymakers stimulate into the recovery; we see 11% upside for MSCI Europe. We prefer Cyclicals to Defensives and Value over Quality as a global reflationary narrative finally gains traction.

Morgan Stanley

  

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. Given the level of interest rates, we expect money managers (pension funds, SWFs, etc.) to initiate a substantial rotation out of bonds and into higher yielding assets such as equities. This would be an environment in which market volatility declines, supported by fundamental and quantitative drivers. A decline in volatility creates a positive feedback loop, where systematic and discretionary hedge fund strategies increase allocation to equities. This process may take most of 2021 to play out, as the economic recovery as well as inflows in the risky strategies are likely to be gradual. For instance, if strategies’ exposure goes from current below average levels (CTAs ~40th %tile, VT & RP ~15th %tile, Hedge Funds ~25th %tile ) to ~65th historical percentile, this would result in ~$250bn inflows for systematic funds and ~$300bn inflows for Hedge Funds. With additional increases in buyback activity, these inflows would overpower equity supply to drive equity markets higher, towards our S&P 500 2021 year-end price target of 4400.

JPMorgan

  

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Vorweggenommen?

Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is clearing with the business cycle expanding and risks diminishing. We expect a “market nirvana” scenario for equities with the melt-up continuing into 1H21, driven by earnings recovery and multiple expansion. We expect next year to be front-loaded with most of the market upside realized in the first six months of the year, driven by:

• Expectations of continued exceptionally easy monetary policy (US M2 money supply +24% y/y, largest increase since 1940s) and another round of fiscal stimulus ($700-900b) in the near future;

• COVID-19 vaccine distribution and easing of mobility restrictions fueling further earnings, labor market, and business cycle recovery (e.g. US QMI, our leading business cycle indicator, has entered early expansion phase);

• Election outcome with an expected balance of power and likely legislative gridlock is a goldilocks scenario for equities in our view (although Georgia senate race remains a key short-term risk). This expected election outcome significantly reduces risk of higher taxes and regulatory tightening, and increases the likelihood of global trade tensions easing and some tariff rollbacks (we estimate existing tariffs ~$6 headwind to S&P 500 EPS through first order impact alone);

• Steady decline in USD trade-weighted index (-11% since Mar peak and -5% since 1yr ago) is expected to be a significant tailwind for multinational earnings in the coming quarters and for broader liquidity conditions;

• Corporates should begin to release excess balance sheet cash starting next year (S&P 500 record cash balance at ~$2.1 trillion ex-Financials), revitalizing capex, M&A, and capital return, and reducing debt/revolvers – positive for earnings/multiple;

JPMorgan

  

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