71 Seiten, der Teil über RIBH beginnt auf Seite 61:

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Die Zusammenfassung:

4Q09e: Goodwill impairment would not surprise

– Following the recent share price decline, we have lifted our recommendation for the Raiffeisen
International share to Buy (from Hold). The target price was slightly reduced to EUR 50 (from EUR 51),
due to small adaptations made in our DDM model. In terms of peer group multiples, RI currently trades at
1x BV10e, which in our view is not justified, taking RI’s relatively conservative risk policy into account,
as well as some signs of economic improvement in the CEE region with diminishing probability for
negative surprise. However, in case of a return of negative macro and/or banking sentiment a significant
setback of RI’s stock price is also possible.

– Following RI’s better than expected 3Q09 results, mainly based on low provisioning for Russia, we
expect its 4Q09 to turn into the red, with a net loss of EUR 75mn, driven by a goodwill impairment of
EUR 107.5mn for Ukrainian subsidiary Aval and higher provisions compared to 3Q09. The impairmentadjusted
net profit would be some EUR 7mn. Based on the very good results during 2009, we see some
room for cleaning-up, especially in the Russian portfolio.

– For FY09e, we slightly adapted our forecasts, but stayed with only a double-digit net profit (EUR 81mn),
due to our goodwill impairment expectation of EUR 107.5mn for Aval.

– With a slightly brighter outlook for some CEE regions in 2010, we have already adjusted our financial
model for RI in our last earnings preview. We still expect RI to post EUR 275mn in net profit (after
coupon payments) in 2010, mainly driven by a stabilizing top line and fee & commission income, while
net provisions are seen to stay in the EUR 1.8bn region (60% risk/earnings ratio), which in our view
provides some room for bringing this figure down.

– For 2011e, we have increased our net profit forecast to EUR 764mn (from EUR 684mn), which is mainly
due to lower provisioning expectations. With an NPL coverage ratio of 90%, we also see room for
bringing net provisions further down and lifting profitability.