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93666, panikkäufe bei eisenerz
Eingetragen von Finanzer, 07.1.10 11:10
Iron Ore Reaches High as Goldman Sees ‘Panic Buying’

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The cash price of iron ore delivered
to China, the world’s biggest buyer, rose to the highest in more
than a year amid what Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said was “panic
buying” by steel mills.
The cost of 62 percent iron-content ore delivered to
Tianjin port increased 2.9 percent to $124.80 a metric ton
yesterday, according to The Steel Index. The so-called spot
price has surged 24 percent in four weeks and has more than
doubled from its 2009 low on March 27.
Chinese mills have stepped up iron ore purchases to meet
rising steel demand fueled by the nation’s stimulus spending.
The gains boost expectations for a rise in annual contract
prices, which would raise profits for Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group
and BHP Billiton Ltd., the three biggest exporters.
“Spot price strength has been exacerbated by panic buying
by Chinese mills increasingly concerned about availability at a
time of reduced spot cargoes on offer from Australia due to
contractual commitments,” Goldman Sachs JBWere analysts Malcolm
Southwood and Paul Gray said in a report dated yesterday.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest
exporter, declined 0.6 percent to A$5.17 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney
time close on the Australian stock exchange after earlier rising
as much as 7.1 percent. Atlas Iron Ltd. rose 4.7 percent.
Demand has been spurred by buying ahead of the Lunar New
Year holiday in China at the same time as non-Chinese customers
boost contract purchases, Goldman’s Southwood and Gray said. The
Chinese holiday starts Feb. 14 and will last for a week.

Annual Talks

“The sharp gain in prices is largely justifiable by
stocking demand from Chinese traders ahead of the Chinese New
Year,” Li Wei, an analyst at Shanghai-based commodities
researcher CBI China Co. said today. “Yet it also has
speculative elements as we’re ahead of the annual talks.”
Iron-ore suppliers hold annual talks with steelmakers to
fix benchmark contract prices for the 12 months from April 1,
the start of the Japanese financial year. The four-decade-old
pricing system was fractured last year after Chinese mills
failed to reach agreement with the three largest suppliers,
boosting demand for cargoes settled on the cash market.
“The spot market is definitely a key factor for
consideration when they negotiate the benchmark price
revision,” Perth-based Atlas Chief Executive Officer David
Flanagan said today by phone. Contract prices may rise 10
percent to 30 percent, with “more weighting toward the upper
end. We still see that as a good outcome,” said Flanagan.

More Losses

China’s 72 major steelmakers will probably post a 41
percent decline in their aggregate profit for 2009, the China
Iron and Steel Association said Dec. 23. Steelmakers globally
will suffer more losses should ore prices gain in 2010, Baoshan
Iron & Steel Co., China’s largest steelmaker, said last month.
Producers last year agreed to a 33 percent cut in contract
prices as the worst global recession since World War II cut
demand. Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts forecast contract prices
may jump 30 percent from last year’s price of about $60 a ton,
according to a Dec. 15 report.
Goldman has raised its forecast for the average 2010 cash
iron ore price, which includes freight costs, by 20 percent to
$111 a ton, according to yesterday’s report. Its forecast for a
20 percent gain in this year’s contract price remains unchanged
though the “risk remains firmly on the upside,” the analysts
wrote in the report.
India, the world’s third-biggest exporter, last month
introduced a levy on shipments to help secure additional
supplies for its own consumption to help fuel economic growth,
boosting prices. Australia is the world’s biggest exporter of
iron ore.
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